Forty Niners Forever

The 2012 regular season is in the books. Through the quarterback change, myrial injuries, and a boatload of inconsistency, the 49ers stand exactly where they did last season. The #2 seed with at least one playoff game at the Stick. The revamped WR corps has been decimated by injury, and has not been upgraded through the draft. AJ Jenkins had his one and only look for the entire season on a 3rd and 2, where he promptly dropped a 1st down pass. The fact it TOOK 17 weeks to get him into the game speaks to Jenkins’ inability to catch on to the speed and complexity of the NFL game. Bust? Maybe not, but he’s not off to a very good start.

LaMichael James on the other hand, shined in his opportunity to play after Kendall Hunter was hurt. He more often than not made the first guy miss, and was a real spark on kickoff returns. He proved to be close to Hunter in his ability and there was little let-down when he was forced into the lineup. The rest of the rookie class did little, unlike the year before, when most of the draft class had a huge impact.

The defense played nearly as well as last year, without the huge turnover differential. They had some dominating games, but also laid some stinkers as well. Rogers didnt have the big year he did last year, but Dashon Goldson continued his rampaging through the WRs in the league. He gets a little wild and out of position, but for the most part he scared the shit out of opposing pass catchers and inspired a lot of ‘gatoring among WRs going over the middle. Aldon Smith had a spectacular year in the sack department, and held the point well when necessary. The troubling thing at this point is that defensive stalwart Justin Smith is injured. He does get the extra week to recover, but the thought here is he still won’t be ready in 2 weeks anyway.

Special teams is a bit of a mess at this point. David Akers missed 2 easy FGs yesterday, and was nailed in his left leg on an extra point. He’s been very inconsistent despite tying the NFL record with a 63 yard FG opening day in Green Bay. Ted Ginn has been pretty abysmal on punt returns in his Allen Rossum impersonations. Kickoff coverage has been spotty, and the loss of Costanzo has been felt across the board. On;y LaMichael James has been the bright spot in recent weeks for the ST group.

As of now, I’d think we’ll play Green Bay.

As the 2012 season winds down, the 49ers aren’t exactly right where they want to be. The offense has been a little spotty at times, and the defense, minus Justin Smith, is struggling  pretty badly. Special teams are a shambles, and the coaching staff was pretty badlyt schooled in that loss to Seattle. They are dealing with a lot of injuries, including the recently concussed Vernon Davis, Mario Manningham, and the still -healing KW and Kendall Hunter.

In other words, the injury bug couldn’t hit the team as a worse possible time. Even still, the team has a shot to secure a bye with a win over AZ, and a GB loss to Minn. Both eminently possible. Or they could fall as low as the 5th seed if the Niners lose, Sea wins, and a bunch of other weird shot happens. Sea has a shot at that bye week. How important is the bye? Well, let’s see how the team gets through the AZ game before dealing with that. More injuries to key players would likely kill their playoff run, but a week off to healthy up would do wonders to the team’s chances. More than likely, the Niners would be facing Chicago or Minn if they play the 1st weekend, or Atl if they get the bye.

AZ comes to town looking like a team that got beaten, robbed, and left for dead in a ditch on the side of the road. They beat NE on the road, and took care of biz early to go 4-0 out of the gate. Since then? 1-10. Ouch. They are in the midst of a QB merry-go-round, and their offensive line is flat terrible at pass protection. Their run game is stalled, and Larry Fitzgerald, an otherwise top 3 WR in the league, is wasting away as the QB du jour throws shit 10′ over his head, or down near his feet. Should Alex Smith hit the market, this is his likely landing spot. Granted, he’d be dodging LBs as he tries to throw, but if AZ can build a decent enough line around him, he and the team would be solid contenders in the NFC West next year.

Here we are in the final week of the regular season. Kudos to Jim Harbaugh for making the playoffs (and possibly winning the NFC West) in his 1st 2 years as Niner coach. For all the improvement of the team in this short period of time, and for the daring (if not crazy) mid-stream switch-out of Alex Smith for Colin Kaepernick, certain troubling things don’t appear to be fixed. The 3rd down conversion rate is still an abysmal 35%, for 23rd in the league. Sure, it’s up from 29% (and 31st) last year. Astounding considering the Niners were nearly in the Super Bowl. The passing game is up a little from 29th to 25th. All the new WRs have helped a little, and Crabs is having a solid year, but VD has disappeared, Manningham (as well as KW)  is now hurt, and Moss is getting some time, but not as much as I anticipated. Walker has gotten more looks, which is good and bad as he’s dropped a lot, and fumbled a few. The run game is doing better, but has also gotten hit by injuries (Hunter) and animosity (Brandon Jacobs). Gore is doing very well despite his age, and LaMichael James has done pretty well covering for the injured Hunter.

The Niners offense is identical to last year’s, as far as points scored goes. The defense is also ranked about the same in points allowed, although the Niners dropped a few spots due to the recent beat-down. That being said, the Smith to Kappy switch-out didn’t cure the 2-steps-forward-1-step-back deal. This team when on, beats the likes of Green Bay, New England, and Chicago with relative ease. Yet, when things don’t go well, they lose to (or tie) the likes of StL, Minnesota, and  the recent debacle vs Seattle. The wins were studies in offensive effectiveness and defensive domination. Solid running, errorless passing, and tight defense, with a few turnovers led the way. The losses were pretty much across-the-board failures. Strange coaching decisions, horrible special-teams play, defensive lapses, and killer penalties have plagued the losses. Strange, to say the least, that this team can’t put 3 games together when you look at last year’s 8 game winning streak.

All in all, a quandary. The AZ game should be little more than a formality, but as we all know, this team can look last with the best of them. I’m not too worried about it, but going forward, the Niners need luck to get the playoff bye, and will likely host a playoff game in the WC week. Chicago or Minn likely. Even still, the Niner playoff run is supposed to be about the NFC Championship game. One that will likely go through Green Bay AND Seattle. A tough row to hoe at this point.

Coming down to the wire here. There’s a lot on the line for both sides. Seattle has little chance to win the West, but they are fighting for their playoff lives. If Seattle IS to win the West, they need this game plus help. If the Niners want to get the 1st week bye, THEY need this game. Green Bay is playing the Tennessee Tuxedos, so they will most assuredly go to 11-4.  Seattle has some depth problems in the defensive backfield. CBs Thurmond and Trufant are questionable, No decision has been down regarding Richard Sherman, so he’s apparently  cleared to play, but Brandon Browner is still serving his suspension. I’m sure Jim Harbaugh knows this, so I see the Niners opening up early on the deep passing attack again.

The Niners D of course has to worry about Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson. I think the defense come out of the nickel they played a lot of last week. The Niners need to focus on Lynch more than they had to with NE. Lynch is a beast, and he looks to tear the Niners up if they go light on the line. But Wilson brings a big run threat as well as his passing game. They use the read option, and have been slowly running it more and more. So who decides this game? The crowd? The weather? The coaches? Turnovers?

Yeah, could be all of the above. This will be the 6th nationally televised game for the Niners, and they are a gaudy 5-0 so far. There’s a shitload of talk regarding the freshman class of quarterback who are tearing up the league. From  Griffin to Luck to Wilson, they are gathering all the press. Colin Kaepernick. For all he did in his few chances, there’s not a hell of a lot of notice about him, other than his tattoos and how he got the starting job. A few out there are taking notice, but as of now, he’s still pretty much under the radar.  Frankly, that works in the Niners favor, but in the end it doesn’t really mean much.

Seattle’s a young team making waves, but I think the Niners are the stronger team, and they will prevail.  Also, I’m gone all day, so play nice…..

Pete Carroll seems to be getting a handle on not shooting his mouth off these days. Or his players. His MO has been to do a little too much talking. Before and after games. While Jim Harbaugh tends to talk to the press in non-sequiters (Jive turkey gobble gobble, ropin’ and ridin’).

Still and all this game will be played on the likely rain-soaked turf of Seattle. This game will also bear little similarity to the previous meeting of the Niners and Seattle in week 7 at the Stick. That game saw a lot of Frank Gore and Marshawn Lynch. Russell Wilson had one of his worst days as a rookie phenom, and Carroll was still working on how to use Wilson in the framework of their offense. Wilson went 9 for 23 for 122 yards and a pick. Since that game, though, the Hawks have gone more read option, and have thrown more than earlier in the season. Passing to set up the run. Wilson has gone 13-2 TDs to INTs since that Niner game. And obviously they’ve been scoring at a very high rate. Of course, scoring on Buffalo isn’t all that, and AZ has been on a steady decline since they beat the Dolphins on Sept 30.

The 49ers? Well, beyond the fact that they’ve changed QBs, and they too run the read option now (out of the bug-eye formation), and are a little more aggressive in their passing game, their philosophy hasn’t changed all that much. They still try to pound the ball up the middle with Gore, and hit the edges with LMJ. They use play-action to try downfield shots. Very much like Seattle. Even with Seattle’s recent onslaught of points, the Niners have still outspcred them 357 to 350, but it’s basically a wash.

Defensively, both these teams are similar. A defensive backfield full of big-hitting safeties and good cover guys. The numbers bear this out. Even with Sunday night’s defensive collapse, the Niners still lead the lead in least defensive points allowed 218 points. Seattle is a close 2nd at 219. Both teams have 35 sacks, but Seattle’s defense is slowed by the loss of Jason Jones, Brandon Browner is serving his suspension for PEDs, and the impending suspension of Richerd Sherman is still TBD today. He may or may not be cleared, and even if suspended, could still have the suspension hit next week instead of this game. They do get safety Winston Guy back. He has served his 4 game suspension for PEDs.

The Niners of course may not be getting the services of Justin Smith. He of the 185 consecutive game starting (and 188 games in a row) streak, and the heart of the defensive line for the 49ers. Earlier reports of Smith playing have been clouded by the fact that Smith hasn’t practiced all week, and his status is less clear than when Harbaugh gave his ‘ropin’ and ridin’ report on Tuesday. Ricky-Jean would take his spot, and he had a decent game once the Niners got out of their zone coverage and stopped letting Brady hit 8-12 yard passes at will. Still and all, I think Justin is a game-time decision and could still play if he improves enough. Missing a few practices isn’t a deal-breaker for him.

So, I see a game plan similar to what they did vs NE. Come out aggressive. Try to get up early, and force turnovers in the bad weather. The big hope for me is that Kappy and Goodwin have figured out the center/QB exchange problems which plagued the Niners, to the tune of 4 botched snaps (but no turnovers), in the New England rain.  They cannot keep making mistakes like that and expecting to win games.

This is what that last thread was supposed to be. The train in my mind went off the rails and went in a diffrent direction.

Anyhow, my first thought regarding Alex Smith and his future with the 49ers was Alex, who got one measly hit from Miami before this season started, would get his mill and his unconditional release on 3/31.

But . . .

The FA QB situation is dogshit. It starts at Joe Flacco and goes down in a hurry from there. Jason Campbell? Tavaris Jackson? Matt Moore? Drew Stanton??? A veritable who’s who of dreck. Flacco has proven he can beat shitty teams most of the time, and good teams once in a while, but he more than likely isn’t going anywhere, so this is good news for Smith (and the Niners by proxy if they can drum up a bidding war for Alex’s services).

Beyond that, the college QB class is bereft of anything eye-popping, or even eye-opening. Geno Smith? Tyler Wilson? Matt (Hot-tub Barkley? This could be the 1st draft in NFL history where a QB is not taken in the entire 1st round.

So, that leaves trades as the only way for the plethora of teams out there desperate for a QB to get someone. The best backup by far is one Alex Smith. He’s the 3rd ranked QB in the league, for God’s sake. Matt Flynn and Kevin Kolb could likely be on the block as well, but Kolb sucks, and Flynn is still an unknown entity.

So, who are the players out there that need QBs? Shit. Who doesn’t? San Diego could very well be tiring of the blase uncaring turnover machine that Philip Rivers has become. Alex would be a great fit with Norv Turner, but ol’ turkey neck is toast in SD. The Jets are totally hosed with the only guy in the league with MORE turnovers than Philip Rivers (47 in his last 2 years), in Mark Sanchez and his whopping 50 in the same span.

The Jets have MUCH more on their plate than just QB problems, as they have a front office that rivals the Niners in 2009. Rex Ryan distrusts the front office, and the front office is more concerned with being ‘relevant’ (see the Tim Tebow trade), and they have a team with little talent, and no leadership in sight.

Cleveland isn’t all that impressed with their geriatric rookie Brandon Weeden. Another 10 loss season will do that to folks. They have some good young talent in RB Trent Richardson and WR Josh Gordon, and a decent young defense. That would be a prety good fit for Alex.

AZ? Well, there lies the rub. Can the Niners pull something like this off if they get a good enough deal? Sure, Why not? The Iggles traded Donovan McNabb to the Redskins, a division rival, a few years back. This is a little different though. Smith has a lot more tread let on his tires. the Niners may be a little leery of trading him to a division rival. AZ is terrible offensively, especiall their O line. It is giving up sacks at am alarming rate, and both Red Skelton and Kevin Kolb have been pummeled trying to run that offense. Beef up the line, and get a better QB and AZ could be right back in the mix. Hence the Niners uneasiness sending him to AZ.

KC is another possibility. Matt Cassel isn’t reminding anyone of Tom Brady anymore, and is considered pretty much a bust at this point. I know little about the Chiefs, but they have some good young players. Would Alex fit there? Sure. Why not? KC will likely get a slew of new coaches after this nightmare of a season. They might shoot for an established QB as well.

So, what do the Niners look to get in a trade? A 2nd and 4th pick? Sure. Strangely enough, the Niners have upwards of 13 picks in 2013 due to trades and supplemental compensation picks. I don’t think they would know what to do with 2 more picks in the draft. Could they even concievably get a late 1st round pick? A high #1? The hope would be a bidding war broke out, and it could very well happen. I think a 2 and 4 is possible, and I have no idea who they could trade for, but the Niners do need D line depth, safety depth, and maybe a WR to hunt for in trade.

Stop me if you heard this before. Anyhow, the switch has been made, the die is cast, the team has moved on, and only an injury would put Young Sir Alex back on the field for the San Francisco 49ers. Arguing the merits of the switch, or the hose-job that Alex recieved from Jim Harbaugh, the guy that pulled his career from the depths of mediocrity, is certainly blogg fodder for the down time between games, or it is a signal to everyone on the team that Harbaugh will say or do anything as the cost of his integrity and his word to get his way.

Certainly I think this went down differently in the locker room rather than how is was presented to the media. I obviously don’t know any better, but I’d have to think Harbaugh sat Smith down and told him, “Look, I’m going with Kappy, the guy I specifically brought in to run this team, rather than go back to you. I think the team will be better for it. I know it sucks for you, Alex, but it’s my call and I’m making it. Would I have made the switch if you hadn’t gotten hurt? hard to say, probably not, but that’s how it is.”

Alex Smith certainly has gotten a raw deal from the 49ers. From the offensively challenged years of Nolan/Hostler to the shoulder injury to the backstabbing by Nolan to the lost years, and then the fun of Mike Singletary and his revolving quarterback system to the seemingly glory days of finally getting a coaching staff that understood something about running an offense. 2012 was supposed to be the crowning achievement of Alex Smith’s career. Coming a botched punt from reaching the Super Bowl after winning one of the most excitiing playoff games in history, he was set to lay waste to the NFL landscape on his way to the Super Bowl. And he had done that, for the most part this season. Big early road wins over the Packers and AZ, and tough wins over Deetroit and Seattle among others, Smith was 6-2 when he went down with the concussion vs the Rams.

Truth is, Smith did nothing to lose the job. And that’s what the kicker is around this. Kappy certainly is playing within percentage points of Smith regarding ratings and such (104.3 Smith, 101.3 Kappy QBR / 79.5 Kappy, 70.1 Smith in Total QBR), and he brings a much bigger threat as a scrambler on proken plays. He appears to do a better job of extending plays, and buying time to find open guys. Turnovers? Well, that’s an issue. Kappy has fumbled much more than tiny hands Smith, and while the weather can be looked at as a problem in NE, Brady didn’t fumble shit while Kappy had major problems in the 1st half. To the tune of 4 botched exchanges. None led to turnovers, but one killed a 4th and one on NE’s 24 yard line. Those problems were fixed by Kappy and Goodwin making adjustments at the half. Some sort of hand adjustments that seemed to remedy the problems. Willthis be true going forward? We’ll see. But let’s hope they work this out, because the weather could be very similar in Seattle as it was in NE.

In his few games, Kappy’s made a few bad throws. The pick to Moss in the end zone, he failed to pick up the underneath safety closing from the left side as he rolled right before he threw. And the pick in the NO game, eh rushed a throw from a bad snap, and didn’t see the underneath safety again close on the play and make the pick on the left sideline. Other than that, he has brought a more dynamic feel to the QB position, although the numbers couldn’t be much more even at this point.

So, why the switch? Obviously it is because of the playoffs. Harbaugh must feel that while Alex can win in the regular season, he feels Kaepernick gives them a better shot in the playoffs. Certainly the Giants game this year didn’t help Smith’s cause. He threw 3 picks and no TDs, but a lot of the problems in that game point directly to Harbaugh and his musical QB scenario that killed a bunch of early drives. The Minn game was another shit game, but that was a bad defensive game and the Niners totally abandoned the run game after a slow start on offense. 24 for 35 and 204 isn’t bad, but the run game was non-existent and the defense was bad that day.

Kappy’s big wins against quality opponents certainly make the decision look good so far. Going forward? We’ll see. There are those who say that the season is a failure if the Niners don’t reach the Super Bowl, and while there is a certain glimmer of truth to that, in reality it’s horseshit. Every season is different. There are personnel changes, injuries, different opponents, and a thousend different variables to consider from one season to the next.

Harbaugh certainly bears the brunt of the fallout for the decision should the Niners not reach the promised land, but I don’t think he gives a shit. He’s still the golden child of the bay area, and the archtect of 2 playoff season in 2 years for the 49ers, and he brought the aura of excitement around the team just when they needed it for their new stadium opening in 2014.

Jim Harbaugh and Pete Carroll meet once again on opposite sides of the field as the San Francisco 49ers head north on I-5 to play the Seattle Seahawks in the latest incarnation of the “What’s you deal?” bowl. These guys have been butting heads since 2007, when Jim Harbaugh was hired by Stanford after his stint coaching the college powerhouse, the USD Toreros. Harbaugh’s Cardinal of course beat USC in 2007 as 41 point underdogs, one of the greatest upsets in college football history. And the fight was on. The Cardinal lost in 2008, but 2009 gave us the 55-21 trouncing of the Rubbers in LA. Harbaugh’s 2 point conversion on the last TD led to the title of this thread.

Harbaugh ended up 2-1 vs USC, the only college coach to have a winning record vs Pistol Pete in the college ranks. Pete came to Seattle in 2010, and went 1-1 under the previous 49er regime. But, enter Jim Harbaugh in 2011, and Pete is once again winless in Seattle vs Harbaugh. Jim is a perfect 3-0 vs the Hawks, winning 33-17, and 19-17 last season, and a hard-fought 13-6 win earlier this season.

Much of the gravitas of this upcoming game was doused when the 49ers took care of New England, and thus still have a 1.5 game lead with 2 to go, so Seattle can’t take the west lead with a win, but Seattle is still fighting for their wildcard lives. At 9-5, they control the top WC spot as of now, but there are 5 teams at 8-6 who could easily slide in to take their hole. Seattle still has a slim chance to win the West, albeit at the hands of SF losing to AZ at home, which is highly unlikely, but the crux of this game lies in the hands of these coaches. At least that’s the compelling storyline.

A 49er win would pretty much lock up the #2 seed for the Niners and get the coveted 1st week bye. Green Bay has the Titans at home (win) and Minn on the road (probably a win), so the Niners need to beat Seattle to take it. Damaging Seattle’s playoff hopes is extra gravy for the biscuits. Much as a Niner loss would be a big feather in Pete’s cap as it would likely kill the Niners shot at the 1st round bye.

Well, that was one of the craziest games I’ve ever seen. Saw a game years ago when it was Joe Montana vs Dan Fouts at the Stick years ago. Both teams went up and down the field all day. Defenses left gasping for air as 2 high-powered offenses had their way. San Diego had the ball last, and thus won 41-38. Fantastic game even if it wasn’t a Niner win.

Yesterday’s game? Even more wild. The difference being this game was a  tale of 2 halfs. In the 1st half, the Niners played well, but wasted a bunch of scoring opportunities and still went into the locker room with a 17-3 lead. The 2nd half saw the Niners strike quick;y for 14 more points, then Tom Brady led a ferocious comeback a 31-3 deficit to tie the game late in the 4th quarter, only to lose in the end.

The 1st drive was an impressive march down the field in 6 plays, capped by a 24 yard strike to Randy Moss. The D played outstanding in the 1st half (1 first down, 113 yards for NE). Carlos Rogers picked Brady on a deep ball, and nearly scored, only to have Walker fumble away the opportunity. Next drive, on 4th and 10, Goldson took the snap on a fake punt for a 31 yard gain, only to see David (sayonara) Akers miss a 39 yard FG. Another turnover (a Bowman strip) deep in NE territory was followed by a botched snap (one of 5) on 4th and 1 from the NE 25. Kappy then led the Niners on 2 scoring drives to close out the half. A deep sideline route to Walker for a 34 yard score, and a 6 minute drive ending in a FG to close the half. A great job of keeping Brady on the sideline, but the Niners left at least 20 points off the board.

3rd quarter? The Niners came out very aggressive again, as Kappy took a deep shot to Moss that was picked off. He didn’t see the weak-side safety, and he took a real deep drop. The pass was short and easily picked. On the ensuing drive, Donte Whitner laid the wood on Steven Ridley, and the fumble was returned by Goldson to the 6. On another botched exchange by Goodwin and Kappy, Gore picked up the fumble and ran it in for a 24-7 lead. Aldon Smith (who was in Brady’s face all 1st half) intercepted a tipped pass, and Kappy took advantage on the next play, throwing a strike down the middle, splitting 2 defenders for a 27 yard Crabman TD. The route was on. 31-7.

Then it wasn’t. No gory details, but the Niners went into deep shell mode, and the offense went a little conservative. It took the Pats 4 drives (35 plays for 320 yards for NE compared to 10 plays/20 yards for the Niners) to tie the score. trhen came the biggest play of the game. LMJ, who had a good day spelling Gore, returned the ensuing kickoff 62 yards to the NE 38. It took one play, an allouit blitz by NE that Kappy read, and found his secondary reciever, Crabs, who stepped around the corner and YACed his was to the go-ahead TD. Even though the drive took tllittle time and gave the defense little rest, it really pumped up the team, and the defense did enough to slow the Brady onslaught. The Niners forced a turnover on downs as NE went for it on 4th and 1 on their own 12. A strange call as NE had 2 timeouts and the 2 minute warning.  This led to a chip-shit FG. NE added a FG of their own as Delanie Walker recovered the onsides kick with little problem.

Say what you will about the NE comeback and stagnation of the offense for those 3 drives, this is a huge win for the Forty Niners. NE hadn’t lost a December game at home in years, and they were the hottest team in the league. The Niners overcame their own mistakes and the ferocious comeback by future Hall of Famer Tom Brady to win on the road in the freezing rain against the defending AFC champions. Kappy’s numbers look small when compared to Brady’s, but Tom Terrific threw 2 picks to one TD on 36 of 65 for a whopping 443 yards, as NE outgained SF 520 to 383. Kappy threw 4 TDs and 1 pick on 14 for 25, 216 yards.

We are getting to the crux of the season here. The Niners can hit these playoffs anywhere from the 1 seed to on down to the outside looking in. I don’t see either happening, but winning the West is the main goal. Green Bay has a little easier time of it, and they may very well pass the Niners for the 2 seed. Seattle likely wins as well tomorrow, so the Seahawks game next week could very well determine the west should the Niners lose tomorrow. I think  they win, for some crazy reason. I think Kappy has a big game, and I think the defense does well enough to slow Brady and co.

I hope these guys worked on using the speed they suddenly have out there since AJ and LMJ look to get a lot more field time with Hunter, KW, and Manningham out. I would love to see more screens and passes to the flat to give these guys the ball with some green around them.  If NE plays it like Miami and St Louis did, the slants will be there. Take a few shots with Randy and AJ, use the speed. Defensively? Well, the hope is we don’t start slow, as NE can jump on you pretty fast and throw up a 21 spot in short order. That being said, how is a good question. The Niners worked over GB pretty good with their base D. They didn’t do as well vs Minn and the Giants.  They will likely have to throw some blitzes in despite the risk of getting burned.