Forty Niners Forever

All revved up, and too much time before game time! 16 hours and counting. I still feel pretty good about the Niners heading for their 6th appearance in the holiest of holies, SUPER BOWL XLVIII!!!!!  Not sure if I have the Roman numerals right. Not sure how I’ll sleep tonight. Got the same gang of friends coming over, so we’re going to let it ride. Beer, steaks, maybe kill the morning replacing the lower tranverse link in my daughter’s car.  Heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!

Other than that BRING IT ON!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Super Bowl time!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Last year, both the Jims and the Johns were denied entrance to the Super Bowl. Jim on a couple botched punt returns, and John on a late TD that was knocked out of the WRs hands, and the inimitable Billy (wrong way) Cundiff’s missed chip shot to send the game into overtime. This year both have made it to the doorstep once again. In fact 3 of the 4 teams in these conference champioinship games are the same. Only the Atlantas have crashed the party.

I’m of the mind that Atlanta won their super bowl last week. Snatching victory from the jaws of defeat by parlaying a 31 yard punt return into a couple 25 yard passes to get into field goal range with 31 ticks left on the clock. Natty Ice WAS pretty natty on those 2 clutch passes, and Seattle even played it right by blitzing both plays.  Still and all, I don’t think Atlanta is all that spectacular. Ryan was uneven at best last week, but he did hit big plays down field. Their run game, while decent, isn’t going to get too much against the Niners, now that Justin Smith, who was in 98% of the plays last week, is back in the saddle. He says he feels better, and didn’t suffer any setbacks with his injured arm. I think the Niners will rattle Natty more than the job they did against Rodgers last week. No running for Atlanta, and slowing their passing game equals short Atlanta drives.

Atlanta on the other hand offers a much different look defensively than the Packers. The Pack plays a lot of man-to-man. So this opened up the running lanes for Kaepernick when he couldn’t find a WR to throw to.  Atlanta also did well to keep Russell Wilson fairly contained from breaking off any big runs. Stll and all, during crunch time, Seattle ran the ball tough, and Wilson made the throws to get Seattle ahead with little time left. Matty made one terrible throw that was easily picked off and aided in the comeback. As I’ve said, i think the Niners come out running. I think Mike Nolan comes out with his nickel package to start the game. If he does, the Niners will run up the middle. Pound it with Gore, and get LMJ to the edge with some screens and a sweep or 2. Our O line is on a roll, and we have been running pretty well recently.

If Teflon Mike comes out loading up the box, then it’s time to get VD involved. As well as Moss. Take some deep shots, and give Crabs his opportunities. I think the Niners can grind down Atlanta much as they ground down the Packers. I also like last week’s call. 31-17 Niners.

As far as the AFC game goes, I think Balt finally gets over the hump. Flacco had a good game against a tough Denver defense (even if Denver threw the game away late), while the Pats had a fairly easy time against the Houstons. Funny thing is, it would be pretty sweet to deny Tom Brady his 4th Super Bowl victory if the Niners beat them in the Super Bowl. If the team he grew up idolizing stopped him yet again in his attempt to tie Montana and Bradshaw for the Niners 6th Super Bowl title?

Epic. Then again, be careful what you wish for . . .

To kill the jinx, we must acknowledge it. It what must be some kind of twist of fate, the Niners are facing the Double Whammy of jinxes this weekend. EVERYONE knows about the Sports Illustrated cover jinx. And sure enough, there he is, big as life, Colin Kaepernick on the cover of SI this week. Holy . . . indeed. When was the last time the Niners were on the cover of SI? You guessed it. Right before last year’s NFC Champiomship game against the New York Giants. And we all know how that turned out.

The other hobgoblin of doom is the season-long pattern of w-w-l; w-w-l; w-w-t; w-w-l; w-w-l; w-w-l; w-w-??? 18 games into this season, and the pattern goes on. Uncanny consistency in being inconsistent. Every 2 game winning streak was followed by the NFL wonks declaring that the Niners are the best team in the NFL. Whereas they would puke on their shoes and get knocked down a peg or 3. Some losses were to good teams (Giants, Minn), some to bad (StL), and some were ugly (Seattle).

I don’t hold much truck in the fact that my actions determine the fate of my team (superstitions  being something I left behind me a while ago), but this may be the time to bring extra mojo to the table. The 49ers are 5-8 in NFC Championship games, and bring a 1-5 record in their last 6 playoff road games. Pish posh you say? Ancient history? Well, sure. But there sure seems to be a boatload of kharmic baggage to overcome in this game. So, dig out that old ticket stub, find that 26 year old t-shirt that brough you good luck in the 1994 Super Bowl game, and hope to hell these patterns don’t repeat themselves. Because as we all know, those who do not remember the past are doomed to repeat it.

Once again, the San Francisco 49ers are on their way to the NFC Championship game. The difference being, the 49ers have to go on the road to reach the Super Bowl. Playoff history be damned (their playoff road record barely counts, as it is ancient history), but their last playoff trip to Atlanta was an unmitigated disaster as Garrison Hearst tore his ankle to shreds on the very first play, and the Niners never recovered, losing 20-18. This was Steve Young’s final full season with the Niners, and the Niners last best chance for a Super Bowl win. The Mooch/Garcia teams were never quite as good, and thus began the dark ages. Atlanta of course crapped themselves after beating the Niners, and John Elway trounced the turdy birds in that Super Bowl.

Flash forward to now. Is anyone really worried about Natty Ice and the Falcons? I’m not. After watching that game yesterday, I’m not too worried. Seattle spent the 1st half shooting themselves in their feet, and playing like they’ve been flying back and forth across the country numerous times for the last couple weeks.  Atlanta grudginly took advantage of Seattle’s lethargy, and struck for some big plays, and did some decent running to back that up. Cue up the 2nd half, and Teflon Mike Nolan decided to go into his own special version of the soft shell deeeep dish pizza coverage that us Niners fans know and love so well. The old bend and bend over defense. After Dominating the game for 3 quarters, and not quite running away, it took Seattle all of 8 minutes to overcome a 27-7 lead and take a lead of their own. Funny thing is, Seattle did exactly what Nolan did in the 4th quarter, and that is drop the safeties deeeep, and give up the underneath sideline route that they are implicitly defending. Oooops. a 30 yard KO return, a 22 yard sideline pass, and a 18 yard pass to Tony Gonzalez led to Matt Bryant’s  game-winning FG. Of course Bryant then followed that with the worst squib kick in the history of squib kicks. Sea then threw a stupid 8 yard pass that should have gone for 20 to give their kicker a shot, but instead set up the desparation pass into the end zone that Julio Jones picked off.

So, does anyone think the Niners change things up from last week? I think so. Teflon Mike just might be shitting his drawers over what to do about Kappy and his running ability, so I think the Niners may go away from that aspect of his game. Or not. Few of those runs were scripted, but a design of something I mentioined before the game, and that is to send the pass-catchers deeper than usual to open things up underneath. When Kappy saw long green in front of him, he decisively took off. And he also did NOT take the hits that guys like RG III were taking all year. Mainly because he either got OB or scored. He did miss some pases early, took a retarded taunting penalty, and the pick 6, but all in all, a game for the ages. Watching Kappy on speed turf is a bit intriguing, as Kappy on the Candlestick mush proved to be like watching Usain Bolt racing 6th graders.

So, on to the Cracker dome. The beauty thing about this game is, the Atlanta fans are waiting for the axe to fall. Yesterday WAS their Super Bowl, and Natty Dreadful showed he can win a playoff game with immense help from the other team. Next weekend? Not so much. I foresee a major crush job by the Niners.

Be still my heart. Coming down to the wire here. The Niners, looking to keep the quest for 6 alive, have looked unbeatable and unwatchable like clockwork. Every 3 weeks they lay a fresh turd after coing up roses for 2 weeks. Inconsistency is their only constant. The D has been dominating until it hasn’t. The offense has been record-breaking and TV-breaking. The run game is here and gone.  The passing game remains an enigma no matter who is behind center.

Green Bay on the other hand seems to be riding the wave of solid football, going 10-2 in their last 12 games after a 2-3 start.  They appear to be peaking at the right time despite their loss to Minn on the road to knock them out of the 2 seed. Aaron Rodgers is Aaron Rodgers. Outlandish numbers (4,295 / 39 / 8), and some of his throws last weekend were flat crazy. Throwing lasers on the run for 35 yards, the usual. They even seems to have discovered a diamond in the parking lot with the addition of RB DuJuan Harris.

Still, GB has a defense that really isn’t all that impressive. They give up yards in the air and  they give up yards on the ground. Their WRs are banged up, and they give up a lot of sacks. The Niners at least got the break they needed. They were pretty gassed after that marathon NE game, and staggered down the stretch. The effectiveness of Justin Smith remains a question, and the run game is something that needs to get going early to provide a lift to the play-action passing game.

But still and all, I like the Niners chances. I think the Niners can get to Rodgers with their base pass rush. Disguise a blitz here and there to force a turnover or 2.  I think the offense should be able to get the job done vs Green Bay’s D.

From IrishKevin. It’s from week 5 of the season, but it’s funny as hell . . .

Well, here we are in weekend two-o of the playoffs. Most everyone went with the home teams last week, and were rewarded with 3-1 records.The big boys are coming to the plate, so this should be a very interesting set of games. I haven’t really thought about any of these games short of the Niners/Packers, and to say that I’d be surprised to see Atlanta win, but . . .

Seattle wins a closer-than-expected battle 24-20.

The AFC has the oh-so-close-but-not-quite Baltimore Ravens vs the Manning-led (not a dry seat in Dennis’ house) Denver Broncos. Normally I’d think that Baltimore’s defense would win the day, but Manning has been on fire since October. After starting 2-3, Denver has won 11 in a row, including a 34-17 crushing of those same Ravens. They look pretty strong, but can they take the Ravens now that crappy dancer is back? Looks to be a tough game, but Balt isn’t young anymore, and Flacco is, well, Flacco. Never consistent enough. Denver’s defense is better than Balt’s offense, so they go nowhere. Give this one to the Broncos, 28-10.

New England and the Houstons? Houston is a smoke-and-mirrors team. They played an easy schedule, and the tough teams they played: NE, Indy, GB, and Minn, they lost. They did beat Cincy, but shouldn’t have. Ponder missed on too many wide open opportunities, and couldn’t cash in to AJ Green despite many chances. New England wins big. 38-13.

To recap:

SF 34 – GB 17
Sea 24 – Atl 20
Den 28 – Balt 10
NE 38 – Hou 13

Last year it was the Giants in the NFCCG, this year we get Green Bay in the divisional round of the playoffs. The Niners seem to be meeting old friends in these playoffs. Green Bay leads the all-time series, one that has seen 62 meetings dating back to 1950. Green Bay leads 34-27-1. Green bay also owns the playoff meetings. In the last 5 playoff meetings between the 2 teams, Green Bay is 4-1. The lone win for the Niners is the Owens Owens Owens! wildcard win back in 1999. The last playoff meeting betwee the 2 teams was in the 2001 wildcard round. The Niners lost in Lambeau 25-15 in a meeting between Brett Favre and Jeff Garcia.

Now? Well, the prognosticators are pretty much giving the game to Green Bay. At least the ones I’ve been seeing. It’s hard to bet against Aaron Rodgers, but Rodgers had a healthy team at the start of the season, and the Niners pretty much flattened them. If not for a gift punt return where the replacement refs missed 2 blatant blocks in the back when they picked up their flags and ate them. Still, the Niners won fairly easily. Saturday night however, the Niners will have their playoff rookie, Colin Kaepernick, behind center, and a team that is banged up a good bit. Gone are Kendall Hunter, Mario Manningham, Kyle Williams, and a limited Justin Smith. In their place are LaMichael James (good), Ted Ginn (bad), and AJ Jenkins (ugly), and a fair Ricky Jean Francois. I hope to see Randy Moss used more, and having Jenkins do more than get one look would help. Still not enough deep balls being thrown to either Moss or Jenkins.

Other than that, the formula remains the same for the Niners. Get to Rodgers early and often. They did that in the first meeting this year, and Rodgers was obviously rattled. If Justin Smith isn’t providing enough support for Aldon Smith, then the Niners should move Aldon around to force mismatches and get him in Rodgers’ face. Offensively? Well, the Niners aren’t going to suddenly go 4 wide and pistol formation every down, but certainly that is something that they should try on occasion. During Kappy’s time at UNR running the pistol, he had 2 RBs go over 1,000 yards the same year. Running out of the spread can be very effective, and Gore has done it the few times we have tried it. Get that going, and play-action out of that works great.

Minimize turnovers, force Rodgers into bad decisions or sacks, and get some early points on the board. Game over. I think I said 34-17, and I’m sticking with that.

Pretty much everyone went heavy on the home teams, so pretty much everyone got 3 out of 4 on the playoff prognosticating. As it was, only the following got them all right:

• AlleyKat
• Grumpy Guy
• NoFear

The following were 3-1:

• Me
• Snarkk
• Nip
• Phil
• Shaman
• Dennis
• Barley
• 12th

The stragglers at 2-2 were:

• Spitty and Kevin

And the lone disaster at 0-4 was:

• Flava Flav

Twin and RTF have both taken a permanent vacation, I guess. So no clue as to what they thought. Sorry guys.

At this point, I think the Niners are looking pretty good at getting to the NFC Championship game again. Green Bay was playing at home against a quarterback who was horrifically bad and didn’t crush them like they should have. Truth be told, Jack Webb (Book ‘im, Dan-o [I know, wrong show. Just the facts, ma’am?]) was in a tough spot having thrown 0 passes over the season, and he looked rusty and lost. Still and all, he and the Vikes should have been a little more ready than they showed. That 1st drive looked good til Smoky Joe had to throw. It was like watching Joe Frazier trying to swim in the ABC Battle of the Network Superstars, or whatever that hokey show was.

Minnesota has a good defense, but I think the Niners are better defensively, and worlds better offensively. GB’s run game isn’t really all that great, even with used car salesman DuJuan Harris in there. I expect our offense to be a little tougher than the rudderless ship the Vikes were with Ponder on the sidelines. Juston Smith will be back, in a limited fashion most likely, but Ricky Jean has to really do a better job of holding the point. He will get a lot of action his way early and often. But all in all, I thnk the Niners win this going away.

Here’s how I see it:

Hou over Cincy
Green Bay over Minn
Wash ove Sea
Balt over Indy

Cincinnati may pull this off, but I doubt it. The rest are pretty solid locks. Green Bay won’t lose both halves of a home-and-home series to Minnesota. Seattle, for all their recent glory, still struggles on the road. Indy is a very young team that is destined for greatness, but they are too green at this point to beat Balt in the playoffs.

As a sidenote, this scenario works out best for the Niners.

What do yo think?

Here we are, safely ensconced in the bye week, and the Niners have reverted to mini-camp mode in the kicking department. Because of the status of one David Akers, hurt or not, he’s been sucking the big one. His accuracy rate of 69% is good enough for 31st in the league. Only Green Bay has a worse kicker in (Jackie) Mason Crosby, who is an abysmal 64%.

The season for Akers started out with such hope as he tied the NFL record with a 63 yard kick in Green Bay. But he had costly misses in the Giants game early, and both the StL games (1 miss in the OT tie, and 1 miss in the OT loss) among a whole bunch of other botched attempts. With those kicks, the Niners could have ended up 13-3 and holding the #1 seed, but in the end the Niners still have the bye, and Atl will lose so the NFC Championship game likely goes through SF anyway.

The difference between this year and last is the distance of Akers’kicks. Last year, Akers was 31-32 in kicks from 0-39 yards. This year, he’s 20-23 for the same distance. 40 and up last year, he was 13-20 with an astounding 7-9 on 50+ kicks. This year, the numbers are much worse at 9-19, and 2-6 from 50+.

So, by the numbers, Akers isn’t getting the short kicks he got last year. He’s being asked to kick longer ones, and it isn’t working. He was hurt at some point in the season, but nothing has been done about his problems, til now. The Niners yesterday signed Billy (what, me worry?) Cundiff. He of the blown 32 yarder in the AFC championship game last year. Cundiff has the wonderful stat of being signed to 10 teams in as many seasons. He missed the cut with 5 of them, and played his way off of 4. Sure, he’s got experience, but he also has experience missing big kicks.

Let the competition begin.