Forty Niners Forever

Beyond our own big roadie coming up, there are a bunch of interesting and important games this weekend for the Forty Niners. The big ones in our realm are Green Bay at Chicago and Seattle at Buffalo. Green Bay is half a game behind us for the 2 seed in the NFL, and Chicago is 1.5 back, It would be great to see Chicago beat GB but Cutler usually reserves his shittiest games for GB, and Brandon Marshall is usually nullified by their defense. Green Bay is on fire, and the Bears appear to be a mere blip in their quest to garner the #2 seeding.

Even more compelling is the Seattle Buffalo game. Seattle is 1.5 back in the NFC West chase, but can pass the Niners fairly easily should the Niners falter. Their game in Buffalo (5-8) shouldn’t be near as tough as the NE game for SF is, but Seattle doesn’t travel too well. Should the Niners lose and Seattle win, the game next week will be for the NFC West crown, and would guarantee the Niners play a game on wildcard weekend.

With the Falcons playing the Giants, the Niners could concievably get to .5 of the #1 seed with a win over NE and a Falcons loss. Atl is coming off a galling loss to Carolina, and still have Deetoit on the road and TB at home. Their season could go in any number of directions. They can’t lose their division title, but they could easily slip to the WC round. Same with the Giants. They are Jeckyll and Hyding themselves through another up-and-down season. They hope now is the time they turn it on, though they did lose to RG III and the Skins a couple weeks ago. The Skins and the Boys are both a game back, Washington has Cleveland on the road, and the Boys have Pittsburgh coming to their house.

And, shit, the Minnesota St Louis game could be big. The Rams have crept up to 6-6-1 in the standings and have an outside shot of getting into the WC mix. As do the Vikings. The loser of this game is toast. In the AFC we have the AFC North leading Ravens vs the AFC West leading Denver Mannings. Denver is trying to sneaks its way past NE to the #2 seed, but we’ll see. Lots of Denver fans are becoming Niner fans this weekend. No matter how galling that is for them.

Great weekend for football. Lots of big games. Leading up to the Monday night thriller of The Jets vs the Titanzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz . . . . . .

Roger Goodell, fresh off his bounty-gate spanking from former commish Pete Tagliabue, addressed the world in his ‘special meeting’ in Dallas last night. His main goal appears to be turning the NFL playoff system into one that rivals hockey. Or the NBA. In other words, half the teams should be able to join the playoff fun.

Why? To me, this is merely a deflection from the 18 game schedule the owners want to greedily shove down the throats of the players. If they can’t get an 18 game schedule, lets add 4 more teams to the playoffs. Regardless of the fact that it takes away all incentive to be among the top 2 teams and get the bye week. That way, the owners get the bullshit money for the preseason games AND an extra playoff game or 2, where seat prices go up, as well as parking and concessions, hats, jerseys, etc etc etc.

In other words, for all his lip service about player safety, it’s all about the dead presidents.  GG is backing off the 18 game schedule, but that’s a easy thing to back away from. The players and the union is dead-set against turning 2 preseason games into real ones. They stuck to that adamantly in the negotiations last year. Because of the wear and tear of the season. Players life expectancy would shorten even further given 2 extra games a season. The owners didn’t really give a shit, mainly because the teams get theirs for those games anyway. The season ticket holders pay full freight on those seats (and parking) even if they don’t go. The players, the union, and fans hate those 2 games, but instead of doing away with them, Goodell’s answer to that is to expand the playoffs.

In a perfect world, the NFL would eliminate 2 preseason games and leave the playoffs alone. Instead we get the exact opposite. Expand the playoffs and leave the 2 worthless games on the schedule.

Goodell also said there was no evidence that the players were suffering from all these Thursday night games. Granted, there’s little evidence to glean from, but that didn’t stop Goodie Goodell from saying it. Sure, a lot of players that are dinged up likely miss the Thursday game that they would have otherwise made had it happened on Sunday, but that apparently is balanced out by the scads of money generated by the captive audience phenomenon.

How much do you want to bet we’ll see Friday night games in the near future?

Happy Holidays from the Forty Niners

Well, the Niners weathered the game they desperately needed to win to keep their tenuous grasp on the #2 seed, and maintained their 1.5 game lead on the resurgent Seattle Seahawks. Now they hit the road for their next challenge. New England. On the road. In December. Usually that means terrible weather, but strangely enough, the game time temp was 59º last night in Foxborough. Somehow I don’t think the Niners will get that lucky next Sunday.

Most of the punditry out there is giving this one to NE. And rightfully so. This team made the Super Bowl last year, and was a Hail Mary (and 2 feet) from winning it with a crappier defense.  Even still, NE is 29th in pass defense, and 8th vs the run (26th in the league). Similar to what they just faced vs Miami. The biggest difference being NE leads the league with 34 takeaways (15 picks, 19 fumbles) and has only turnovers themselves (5 picks, 5 fumbles). NE isn’t great at getting sacks, but their D line is stout and hard to run on.

Offensively, well . . . NE is #1 with a bullet. A whopping 425 yards per game. The big difference from last year is NE is running very well with Stevan Ridley. he’s already over 1,000 yards. Of course the Niners are #2 overall defensively and very tough on the run. Since this is a roadie, I think the Niners need to come out max aggressive on defense. The Niners have been very good at disguising their blitzes at times, so they really need to come out and take some chances early. Brady hits passes under pressure. Imagine letting him sit in the pocket. A recipe for a quick deficit. The point being, if Brady is going to beat you slowly and painfully, then try to force the issue by getting in his face early and often. It may not work, but neither will playing the 4 man rush and dropping the coverage.

So, is this game winnable? Sure. Any game is. But the Niners have to do a few things. Do NOT turn the ball over. Create one or two over their own. Limit the penalties. Especially the costly ones like roughing and unsportsmanlike. Pressure Brady and try to knock down passes. Come out aggressive on both sides of the ball to start the game. There’s no reason to play this safe. Try to get on top early, and force the pace. NE will do what they do and that’s play fast, run no-huddle and force THEIR pace. Got to slow them down. If the Niners can come out throwing successfully and get some points, then they can start the ground and pound. Otherwise, if NE gets on top early, it’ll look a lot like last night’s game.

One thing about Belichick is he doesn’t let up. He’s about pedal to the metal all the time. The Niners need to control the pace.

Color me unimpressed, but the Niners played a very bland ho-hum type game vs a very inferior opponent. I didn’t expect a Sea – AZ type score, but I certainly didn’t see a 6-3 half time score either. In yet another game where Fangio’s defense decided to give a young QB time in the pocket by strictly rushing 4 guys and playing soft on the outside WRs, the Niners were outplayed in the 1st quarter, and fell behind 3-0. The offense? Well, after the 1st play, a 20 strike from Kappy to Walker, we were generic there as well.  Wake caused a fumble on 3rd and 3 on that opening drive, and it was a struggle the rest of the way. There was a lot of 3 back, 2 WR formations, 2 TE 2 WR formations, and the Niners trying to run, with varying success. Early on, Miami was rushing 5 and getting through.Since the Niners had 2 TEs in there blocking, there was often no one open to throw to. Kappy took a couple needless sacks, but the WRs were covered, and TEs were blocking so he had nowhere to go. VD again spent a lot time in protection. He got 2 looks, and one catch.

The 2nd quarter was much the same. The niners didn’t let Tannehill do anything over 8 yards, and the Niners couldn’t generate much. However, with 3:15 left in the 1st half, the Niners finally took advantage of the 15 yard cusion that Moss got. The Niners quicly got down to the Miami 10 with about 55 seconds left, after LMJ made a nice catch and run in the flat and got OB.  Here is where it got stupid. Kappy inexplicably took a sack out of the shotgun. 8 yard loss.  Tick tick tick. Then Harbaugh dials up a run for a 2 yard loss. Tick tick tick. Then Kappy bascially throws one away with time juuust about gone to stop the clock. Smart, but it shouldn’t have come to that. So, they had a 1st and goal from the 11 and were able to run 2 plays in 55 seconds. Awful.  The time outs were gone of course, as getting plays to the QB in time seems to  be an issue once again.

The second half was punctuated by the muffed punt for a FG, and the 50 yard Kappy run. The Niners finally started dialing up the pressure, and got to Tannehill. Culliver made some nice plays on their deep balls, but Miami has maybe 2 third string WRs at best. Donte Whitner had the pile-drive of the day when he picked up Regggie Bush and body slammed him to the turf. Aldon Smith looked great in getting pressure. There was one play early where A Smith lined up a half-step behind and off of Juston Smith’s right shoulder. I told Garrett, watch A Smith. He’s getting in there. Sure enough, he got through for his 1st sack.

This game, while the Niners had a few big plays, ad a couple nice passes, sure felt like a preseason game. The Niners played their base D for most of the 1st half, and while they stopped the big plays, they let Miami diddle around all over the place. The offense was a staid, boring, pack a bunch of guys on the line and run up the middle thype deal a lot of the time. What was encouraging was they ran out of the shotgun more in the 2nd half. LMJ broke off some nice runs in the 2nd half as the Niner line wore down Miami’s D line. And Kappy’s keeper was nice. It was set up by a run in the 2nd quarter where Kappy handed to Gore, and faked the keeper reverse. The RDE totally committed to the run on the play. Flash forward to the 4th quarter, and they ran the same plsy, with Kappy keeping the ball. The RDE totally bought the fake to Gore, and Kappy was free and clear.

This all plays like the Nolan/Singletary ‘let’s keep it close til the end and hopefully win’ philosophy. These coaches are either playing it close-to-the-vest because of the New England game coming up, or they seriously think they can win in the playoffs with this philosophy. Well, they can’t. Not unless they score 2 or 3 times on defense.  Kappy’s stats look OK, and the numbers all look like a win, but we let a crappy team hang around most of the game. But, if not for the bungled punt, this game could have gone either way. These coaches either have to generate a real offense, or suffer the consequences. The Niners need to really open things up for Kappy. Otherwise, the QB switch is merely window-dressing.

Glaring problems? We gave up way too many 3rd down plays to Miami, and the Niners didn’t do shit on 3rd down. I don’t know the numbers, but Miami must have been close to 50% converting, and the Nners around 15%.

Here are some pics I took of the game.

Opening drive offense – 2 WRs, 3 RBs. Miami rushing 5.

Opening drive defense – Base 3-4. Safeties deep. Bowman on Bush in the slot. Rogers backed out of press before the snap.

Later in the game – 5 rushers. Willis covers the strong side TE, Golsdon moves up to take the slot left WR.

One of the few multi-WR sets of the game on 3rd and one. Didn’t make it.

Kappy throws to Miller for a 2 yard gain. The only 3rd down conversion other than the 50 yard run.

Dixon with a nice run to the one.

Well, I’m hoping for an entertaining win for game 13.  Mainly because I’m taking my son, shelling out some hard (yeah, really) earned scratch, and making the drive all the way to the house that Stoneham built. Yes, the Stick, the Stinkhole, the mudpit, nee Monster Park. Site of many many MANY football games in my life.

Last game I saw was the Seattle game on Dec 12th vs Seattle. Near the end of Aluminum Mike Singletary’s tenure. The Niners trounced Seattle  40-21. No contest. However, I’ll never forget the 1st time I went to the Stick for a football game. They had the ever-lime-green and deadly astroturf installed for the ‘coronation’ of the 49ers moving to Candlestick from Kezar in 1971, after closing the rim around the stadium, which previously was open in the outfield. They might as well have played in the parking lot for all the padding there was on that field. It was the Minnesota game the last week of the 1972 season. Steve Spurrier (the man who cursed the #11) quarterbacked the Niners to the brink of the playoffs but they needed a win to get in.  All he could muster thru 3 quarters was 6 points, and the Niners were down 17-6. In stepped John Brodie, who had been hurt and had missed the previous 8 games.  He calmly and coolly led 2 4th quarter scoring drives. One to Gene Washington on a 25 yard strike, and the 2nd being a post route to Dick Whitcher as time was winding down. Luckily we were sitting in the south end zone, where the 4th quarter TDs took place. The place went nuts as the Niners made the playoffs. I’ll conveniently end the good feelings here.

So, flash forward to now, and . . . ?  Are we on the brink on another new age of dominant 49er football? Will the decision to start KaepernicK be forever called Harbaugh’s folly? Will it be his downfall? Will Harbaugh switch back to Smith if the Miami game doesn’t go well? Strange days indeed. And to coin a phrase from Mr. Mojo Risin, with a Miner 49er  connection, weird scenes inside the gold mine. . .

Go Niners! And go Kappy!

Moon over My Hammy? Hey, sorry, ended up in Denny’s last weekend trying to get out of town. I-5 was flooded in Stockton on our way to Paso Robles, so we headed east on 12 and it started raining so thick I decided to pull over. There was Denny’s and their Hobbit menu, and their idiotically named breakfast sandwich. Still raining like  a bitch so we turned around and went home.

Anyhow, back to the Miami game. As easy as this one sounds, the Dolphins front line does a good job of run defense (8th in the league), and getting sacks (6th in the league with 33), but that may be due to the fact that they give up so many yards in the air (27th in the league). So, the hope is the coaching staff lets things open up some to attack their weak secondary. Nolan Carroll particularly has been lit up most of the year, so attack him. Miami’s offense is a work in progress and isn’t really scaring anyone. They are 23rd passing, and 17th rushing, 28th overall, and 27th in points scored.

Just scored a pair of tix to the game (I’m taking my son), so I won’t have the pleasure of posting here on Sunday. $150.00 each for 2 on the 4o yard line, lower east (pullout) side. Guess I got to mothball my Smith jersey . . .

“I went down to the crossroads, fell down on my knees.”  God bless Robert Johson for that song all those years ago. Selling your soul for rock & roll fame, for the woman you love, or even being a successful football coach, the crossroads are upon the San Francisco 49ers.

This Miami game looms pretty large in the success of the 2012 football season.  This is the last home game til the end of the season, and the Niners cannot afford to lose this game. Miami is a decent enough team, but they are travelling across country and they are 5-7. Lose this one, and they could very easily lose the next 2 roadies in New England and Seattle. Neither are easy games by any stretch of the imagination. Go 0-3 heading into the last home game vs AZ would be a nasty set of circumstances, but even still, 9-6-1 would likely get them the wildcard. Go 2-2 and the Niners likely win the division, unless Seattle runs the table, but they could lose the bye week.  So, the Niners HAVE to take Miami and the Cards at home to have a realistic shot at keeping the division in play.

Seattle has AZ, SF & StL at home and Buffalo on the road.  A very easy schedule for them. Run the table, and 11-5 could very well win the division. There is Buffalo however. Seattle has been pretty woeful on the road til their recent Chicago win, and the weather in Buff is always an iffy proposition. The Niners would have to go 3-1 to stay ahead of them, win the division, and keep the #2 seed in play.

The good news for the #2 seed is both Chicago and Green Bay both have tough remaining schedules. GB has Det and Tenn at home, and Chi and Minn on the road. Chi has it even worse. They have Minn, AZ, and Det on the road, and Green Bay at home.

Of course the driving force of the team right now is the QB decision. Harbaugh put all his eggs in Kappy’s basket. At least as of now. If the Niners win the Miami game, then the pressure is off, or at least brought down a few notches. Lose this game, and the QB situation will become a full-blown controversy. Harbaugh will be 2nd-guessed over the switch mid-stream, and due to injury to boot, and it could very well fracture the locker room. I’m sure a lot of players were stunned by the switch. I was because it really left Harbaugh little wiggle room. That being said, if Kappy has a lousy game and the Niners lose, I have no doubt Harbaugh will go back to Alex Smith.

The ramifications of going back to Smith would be many. Sure, Kappy is the future, but would this delay the future? Would the Niners ride Alex to the playoffs, possibly to a Super Bowl win, and keep him? Sure they would. If so, does that mean Kappy’s on the block? Would he stand for a benching for another year to bide his time? What then? 2 years on the pine?

If Harbaugh sticks with Kappy, and they go one and done in the playoffs, would he lose the team because of the Smith benching? Next season could be a sea change if the players bail on his college rah rah style, which would then ring hollow due to how he bailed on the most important position on the team. Guys like Gore, Staley,  and VD could very well set the tone in the locker room as one being against Harbauh for blowing their last good shot. Justin Smith as well. The vets on the team could turn on Harbaugh, thus resulting in another coaching change. The year three curse of recent 49er coaches.

The beauty of all this is, win the next game, and a lot of this angst and worry goes away. Lose, and the sceptre of doom would begin to rise in the east.

A funny thing happened on the way to Colin Kaepernick’s ascendancy to the upper echelon of the young guns of the NFL. he pitched a ball 15 yards toward his own end zone, thus giving the Rams 8 points and new life. This of course came after retreating 24 yards only to throw an intentionally grounded pass from his own end zone for a safety. Kappy scored 8 for ther Rams, and 13 for the Niners. The Rams earned 5 on their own for the win.

Belaboring the conervative play calling may not be anyone’s idea of fun, but it has to play a part in this team trying to reach the promised land. yes, you change your look to what the defense is showing, but the Rams had the line packed most of the game, and the Niners still tried to run into in, to no avail. this game was so much a Noloan/Singletary game. With the exception that those guys may have WON this one.

Harbaugh called an option pitch from his own 17 yard line with 3:31 remaining in a game where the StL offense had scored zero points. The snap was low, and Kappy hurried the pitch, and it skipped to the 2 yard line, where Ted (Allen Rossum) Ginn pretended to try and get the ball. At best he should have knocked it OB, kicked it OB, fallen on it,   or something other than the lame-ass attempt to get it that he did. Janorious Jenkins recovered the fumble on the 2 yard line. Inexplicably, and with Ginn sitting on Jenkins’ helmet after the recovery, Jenkins wasn’t ruled down by contact  and was allowed to roll into the end zone for a score. Hometown call but whatever. StL converted the 2 pt conversion for the tie. The rest we all saw. Bradford scampers for a couple 1st downs with the obligatory stupid fuckup by Dashon Goldson on the hit to Bradford. For as good as he is, he continues to make some boenheaded plays at the worst possible times.

Anyhow, back to the play calling. As much as Kappy wants to pin this game on himself, and there is a large amount of resposibility that falls on his shoulders, you have to really question what Harbaugh/Roman are thinking. All game the Niners ARE playing it fairly conservative. Gore had one big run surrounded by a bunch of one yard runs. The passing game consisted of the kind of short shit that everyone blamed on Alex Smith’s limitations, not the desire of a head coach to play it safe. Kappy was supposed to assume the starting role because he brings more downfield striking ability to the table. Well, it was rarely shown all game despite the Rams packing the line and daring the Niners to go deep. They didn’t until the 3rd quarter. Again, VD was eerily silent. Walker dropped a sure TD, but there were very few downfield shots taken. Moss? He gets his 1 or 2 12 yard outs. He’s gotten I think ONE deep pass all year. It’s insane.

All that being said, the approach WAS working. The Niners had an 8 point lead with 4 minutes remaining. The D was stopping everything the Rams had. Then the fateful pitch play. If ever there WAS a time to play it conservative, it was then. Instead, Harbaugh wanted to go fucking college gimmick look-at-me-I’m-so-cool play, and boom, a gift 8 points for the Rams. Kappy did make another mistake, but it came after his 50 yard run to set up the late lead. He should not have gone OB on his 10 yard run to set up Akers’ 33 yard FG. A quibble? Maybe, but it would have forced StL to use their last time out before their last drive.

After trading punts in OT, Hekker boomed one 14 yards to give the Niners the ball at the 50. Now HERE’S where you DON’T go conservative. After converting a 3rd down to StL’s 37, the Niners ran right 2 tims for 4 yards. They tried to get the ball to the left hash mark, but the pass to Crabs was incomplete. Still and all, you don’t really want to leave your struggling kicker with a 51 yarder. Even indoors. Take at least one shot downfield. a nice mid-range pass or something. I know they were worried about a sack, but being conservative pretty much sealed their fate. I think about 95% of the Niner fans out there knew what was coming.

I’m sure you guys don’t remember that old Woody Allen movie that had Gene Wilder drinking Woolite at the end of it. Not sure how these guys tied us at out house and then proceed to lose in their house to the lowly Jets, but that’s football. Some teams match up well with others, some just get your number that day.

And, seeing as that last Ram game very well may be the last start of Alex Smith’s 49er career,  at least he went out on a good note. His last throw was a TD to Michael Crabtree, and his last game and 1/3 he was 25-27 for 304 yards and 4 TDs. Anyhow, I’m not here to bury Alex, but to praise him. Or is it the other way around?

This does however, for all intents and purposes, appear to be the start of the Colin Kaepernick era no matter what Jim Harbaugh says. My thought is the Niners come out and try their new QB out and go a little more pass happy. Some of this is due to Kendall Hunter being out, but some of this is due to just getting the kid some more work. They need to get Cappy up to speed for the playoffs and we have 5 games to get this right.

I hope this isn’t going to be as crappy as the last Ram game, but I seriously don’t think the Niners let this one get away.

Cue the Star Wars music. This, I suppose is the official game 1 of the Colin Kaepernick era. If you don’t know the story, it’s a pretty good one of a kid born in Milwaukee, adopted and raised in Turlock, CA. He was a phenomenal athlete no matter what he did, and was an outstanding pitcher and all-league basketball player at Pitman High in Turlock. He was recruited by a bunch of colleges for baseball and basketball, but only University of Nevada Reno offered him a football scholarship. After a stellar college career, he ended up as the only guy to evern throw for over 10,000 yards, and rush for over 4,000 yards in a college career.

I’m going to be out of town for the next few days, and I’m leaving this to you guys. Please try to keep it clean. Or at least civil. Ahhhh fuck it, you’re on your own. See ya Sunday night.