San Francisco 49ers Forever

Jim Harbaugh and Pete Carroll meet once again on opposite sides of the field as the San Francisco 49ers head north on I-5 to play the Seattle Seahawks in the latest incarnation of the “What’s you deal?” bowl. These guys have been butting heads since 2007, when Jim Harbaugh was hired by Stanford after his stint coaching the college powerhouse, the USD Toreros. Harbaugh’s Cardinal of course beat USC in 2007 as 41 point underdogs, one of the greatest upsets in college football history. And the fight was on. The Cardinal lost in 2008, but 2009 gave us the 55-21 trouncing of the Rubbers in LA. Harbaugh’s 2 point conversion on the last TD led to the title of this thread.

Harbaugh ended up 2-1 vs USC, the only college coach to have a winning record vs Pistol Pete in the college ranks. Pete came to Seattle in 2010, and went 1-1 under the previous 49er regime. But, enter Jim Harbaugh in 2011, and Pete is once again winless in Seattle vs Harbaugh. Jim is a perfect 3-0 vs the Hawks, winning 33-17, and 19-17 last season, and a hard-fought 13-6 win earlier this season.

Much of the gravitas of this upcoming game was doused when the 49ers took care of New England, and thus still have a 1.5 game lead with 2 to go, so Seattle can’t take the west lead with a win, but Seattle is still fighting for their wildcard lives. At 9-5, they control the top WC spot as of now, but there are 5 teams at 8-6 who could easily slide in to take their hole. Seattle still has a slim chance to win the West, albeit at the hands of SF losing to AZ at home, which is highly unlikely, but the crux of this game lies in the hands of these coaches. At least that’s the compelling storyline.

A 49er win would pretty much lock up the #2 seed for the Niners and get the coveted 1st week bye. Green Bay has the Titans at home (win) and Minn on the road (probably a win), so the Niners need to beat Seattle to take it. Damaging Seattle’s playoff hopes is extra gravy for the biscuits. Much as a Niner loss would be a big feather in Pete’s cap as it would likely kill the Niners shot at the 1st round bye.

Well, that was one of the craziest games I’ve ever seen. Saw a game years ago when it was Joe Montana vs Dan Fouts at the Stick years ago. Both teams went up and down the field all day. Defenses left gasping for air as 2 high-powered offenses had their way. San Diego had the ball last, and thus won 41-38. Fantastic game even if it wasn’t a Niner win.

Yesterday’s game? Even more wild. The difference being this game was a  tale of 2 halfs. In the 1st half, the Niners played well, but wasted a bunch of scoring opportunities and still went into the locker room with a 17-3 lead. The 2nd half saw the Niners strike quick;y for 14 more points, then Tom Brady led a ferocious comeback a 31-3 deficit to tie the game late in the 4th quarter, only to lose in the end.

The 1st drive was an impressive march down the field in 6 plays, capped by a 24 yard strike to Randy Moss. The D played outstanding in the 1st half (1 first down, 113 yards for NE). Carlos Rogers picked Brady on a deep ball, and nearly scored, only to have Walker fumble away the opportunity. Next drive, on 4th and 10, Goldson took the snap on a fake punt for a 31 yard gain, only to see David (sayonara) Akers miss a 39 yard FG. Another turnover (a Bowman strip) deep in NE territory was followed by a botched snap (one of 5) on 4th and 1 from the NE 25. Kappy then led the Niners on 2 scoring drives to close out the half. A deep sideline route to Walker for a 34 yard score, and a 6 minute drive ending in a FG to close the half. A great job of keeping Brady on the sideline, but the Niners left at least 20 points off the board.

3rd quarter? The Niners came out very aggressive again, as Kappy took a deep shot to Moss that was picked off. He didn’t see the weak-side safety, and he took a real deep drop. The pass was short and easily picked. On the ensuing drive, Donte Whitner laid the wood on Steven Ridley, and the fumble was returned by Goldson to the 6. On another botched exchange by Goodwin and Kappy, Gore picked up the fumble and ran it in for a 24-7 lead. Aldon Smith (who was in Brady’s face all 1st half) intercepted a tipped pass, and Kappy took advantage on the next play, throwing a strike down the middle, splitting 2 defenders for a 27 yard Crabman TD. The route was on. 31-7.

Then it wasn’t. No gory details, but the Niners went into deep shell mode, and the offense went a little conservative. It took the Pats 4 drives (35 plays for 320 yards for NE compared to 10 plays/20 yards for the Niners) to tie the score. trhen came the biggest play of the game. LMJ, who had a good day spelling Gore, returned the ensuing kickoff 62 yards to the NE 38. It took one play, an allouit blitz by NE that Kappy read, and found his secondary reciever, Crabs, who stepped around the corner and YACed his was to the go-ahead TD. Even though the drive took tllittle time and gave the defense little rest, it really pumped up the team, and the defense did enough to slow the Brady onslaught. The Niners forced a turnover on downs as NE went for it on 4th and 1 on their own 12. A strange call as NE had 2 timeouts and the 2 minute warning.  This led to a chip-shit FG. NE added a FG of their own as Delanie Walker recovered the onsides kick with little problem.

Say what you will about the NE comeback and stagnation of the offense for those 3 drives, this is a huge win for the Forty Niners. NE hadn’t lost a December game at home in years, and they were the hottest team in the league. The Niners overcame their own mistakes and the ferocious comeback by future Hall of Famer Tom Brady to win on the road in the freezing rain against the defending AFC champions. Kappy’s numbers look small when compared to Brady’s, but Tom Terrific threw 2 picks to one TD on 36 of 65 for a whopping 443 yards, as NE outgained SF 520 to 383. Kappy threw 4 TDs and 1 pick on 14 for 25, 216 yards.

We are getting to the crux of the season here. The Niners can hit these playoffs anywhere from the 1 seed to on down to the outside looking in. I don’t see either happening, but winning the West is the main goal. Green Bay has a little easier time of it, and they may very well pass the Niners for the 2 seed. Seattle likely wins as well tomorrow, so the Seahawks game next week could very well determine the west should the Niners lose tomorrow. I think  they win, for some crazy reason. I think Kappy has a big game, and I think the defense does well enough to slow Brady and co.

I hope these guys worked on using the speed they suddenly have out there since AJ and LMJ look to get a lot more field time with Hunter, KW, and Manningham out. I would love to see more screens and passes to the flat to give these guys the ball with some green around them.  If NE plays it like Miami and St Louis did, the slants will be there. Take a few shots with Randy and AJ, use the speed. Defensively? Well, the hope is we don’t start slow, as NE can jump on you pretty fast and throw up a 21 spot in short order. That being said, how is a good question. The Niners worked over GB pretty good with their base D. They didn’t do as well vs Minn and the Giants.  They will likely have to throw some blitzes in despite the risk of getting burned.

Beyond our own big roadie coming up, there are a bunch of interesting and important games this weekend for the Forty Niners. The big ones in our realm are Green Bay at Chicago and Seattle at Buffalo. Green Bay is half a game behind us for the 2 seed in the NFL, and Chicago is 1.5 back, It would be great to see Chicago beat GB but Cutler usually reserves his shittiest games for GB, and Brandon Marshall is usually nullified by their defense. Green Bay is on fire, and the Bears appear to be a mere blip in their quest to garner the #2 seeding.

Even more compelling is the Seattle Buffalo game. Seattle is 1.5 back in the NFC West chase, but can pass the Niners fairly easily should the Niners falter. Their game in Buffalo (5-8) shouldn’t be near as tough as the NE game for SF is, but Seattle doesn’t travel too well. Should the Niners lose and Seattle win, the game next week will be for the NFC West crown, and would guarantee the Niners play a game on wildcard weekend.

With the Falcons playing the Giants, the Niners could concievably get to .5 of the #1 seed with a win over NE and a Falcons loss. Atl is coming off a galling loss to Carolina, and still have Deetoit on the road and TB at home. Their season could go in any number of directions. They can’t lose their division title, but they could easily slip to the WC round. Same with the Giants. They are Jeckyll and Hyding themselves through another up-and-down season. They hope now is the time they turn it on, though they did lose to RG III and the Skins a couple weeks ago. The Skins and the Boys are both a game back, Washington has Cleveland on the road, and the Boys have Pittsburgh coming to their house.

And, shit, the Minnesota St Louis game could be big. The Rams have crept up to 6-6-1 in the standings and have an outside shot of getting into the WC mix. As do the Vikings. The loser of this game is toast. In the AFC we have the AFC North leading Ravens vs the AFC West leading Denver Mannings. Denver is trying to sneaks its way past NE to the #2 seed, but we’ll see. Lots of Denver fans are becoming Niner fans this weekend. No matter how galling that is for them.

Great weekend for football. Lots of big games. Leading up to the Monday night thriller of The Jets vs the Titanzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz . . . . . .

Roger Goodell, fresh off his bounty-gate spanking from former commish Pete Tagliabue, addressed the world in his ‘special meeting’ in Dallas last night. His main goal appears to be turning the NFL playoff system into one that rivals hockey. Or the NBA. In other words, half the teams should be able to join the playoff fun.

Why? To me, this is merely a deflection from the 18 game schedule the owners want to greedily shove down the throats of the players. If they can’t get an 18 game schedule, lets add 4 more teams to the playoffs. Regardless of the fact that it takes away all incentive to be among the top 2 teams and get the bye week. That way, the owners get the bullshit money for the preseason games AND an extra playoff game or 2, where seat prices go up, as well as parking and concessions, hats, jerseys, etc etc etc.

In other words, for all his lip service about player safety, it’s all about the dead presidents.  GG is backing off the 18 game schedule, but that’s a easy thing to back away from. The players and the union is dead-set against turning 2 preseason games into real ones. They stuck to that adamantly in the negotiations last year. Because of the wear and tear of the season. Players life expectancy would shorten even further given 2 extra games a season. The owners didn’t really give a shit, mainly because the teams get theirs for those games anyway. The season ticket holders pay full freight on those seats (and parking) even if they don’t go. The players, the union, and fans hate those 2 games, but instead of doing away with them, Goodell’s answer to that is to expand the playoffs.

In a perfect world, the NFL would eliminate 2 preseason games and leave the playoffs alone. Instead we get the exact opposite. Expand the playoffs and leave the 2 worthless games on the schedule.

Goodell also said there was no evidence that the players were suffering from all these Thursday night games. Granted, there’s little evidence to glean from, but that didn’t stop Goodie Goodell from saying it. Sure, a lot of players that are dinged up likely miss the Thursday game that they would have otherwise made had it happened on Sunday, but that apparently is balanced out by the scads of money generated by the captive audience phenomenon.

How much do you want to bet we’ll see Friday night games in the near future?

Happy Holidays from the Forty Niners

Well, the Niners weathered the game they desperately needed to win to keep their tenuous grasp on the #2 seed, and maintained their 1.5 game lead on the resurgent Seattle Seahawks. Now they hit the road for their next challenge. New England. On the road. In December. Usually that means terrible weather, but strangely enough, the game time temp was 59º last night in Foxborough. Somehow I don’t think the Niners will get that lucky next Sunday.

Most of the punditry out there is giving this one to NE. And rightfully so. This team made the Super Bowl last year, and was a Hail Mary (and 2 feet) from winning it with a crappier defense.  Even still, NE is 29th in pass defense, and 8th vs the run (26th in the league). Similar to what they just faced vs Miami. The biggest difference being NE leads the league with 34 takeaways (15 picks, 19 fumbles) and has only turnovers themselves (5 picks, 5 fumbles). NE isn’t great at getting sacks, but their D line is stout and hard to run on.

Offensively, well . . . NE is #1 with a bullet. A whopping 425 yards per game. The big difference from last year is NE is running very well with Stevan Ridley. he’s already over 1,000 yards. Of course the Niners are #2 overall defensively and very tough on the run. Since this is a roadie, I think the Niners need to come out max aggressive on defense. The Niners have been very good at disguising their blitzes at times, so they really need to come out and take some chances early. Brady hits passes under pressure. Imagine letting him sit in the pocket. A recipe for a quick deficit. The point being, if Brady is going to beat you slowly and painfully, then try to force the issue by getting in his face early and often. It may not work, but neither will playing the 4 man rush and dropping the coverage.

So, is this game winnable? Sure. Any game is. But the Niners have to do a few things. Do NOT turn the ball over. Create one or two over their own. Limit the penalties. Especially the costly ones like roughing and unsportsmanlike. Pressure Brady and try to knock down passes. Come out aggressive on both sides of the ball to start the game. There’s no reason to play this safe. Try to get on top early, and force the pace. NE will do what they do and that’s play fast, run no-huddle and force THEIR pace. Got to slow them down. If the Niners can come out throwing successfully and get some points, then they can start the ground and pound. Otherwise, if NE gets on top early, it’ll look a lot like last night’s game.

One thing about Belichick is he doesn’t let up. He’s about pedal to the metal all the time. The Niners need to control the pace.

Color me unimpressed, but the Niners played a very bland ho-hum type game vs a very inferior opponent. I didn’t expect a Sea – AZ type score, but I certainly didn’t see a 6-3 half time score either. In yet another game where Fangio’s defense decided to give a young QB time in the pocket by strictly rushing 4 guys and playing soft on the outside WRs, the Niners were outplayed in the 1st quarter, and fell behind 3-0. The offense? Well, after the 1st play, a 20 strike from Kappy to Walker, we were generic there as well.  Wake caused a fumble on 3rd and 3 on that opening drive, and it was a struggle the rest of the way. There was a lot of 3 back, 2 WR formations, 2 TE 2 WR formations, and the Niners trying to run, with varying success. Early on, Miami was rushing 5 and getting through.Since the Niners had 2 TEs in there blocking, there was often no one open to throw to. Kappy took a couple needless sacks, but the WRs were covered, and TEs were blocking so he had nowhere to go. VD again spent a lot time in protection. He got 2 looks, and one catch.

The 2nd quarter was much the same. The niners didn’t let Tannehill do anything over 8 yards, and the Niners couldn’t generate much. However, with 3:15 left in the 1st half, the Niners finally took advantage of the 15 yard cusion that Moss got. The Niners quicly got down to the Miami 10 with about 55 seconds left, after LMJ made a nice catch and run in the flat and got OB.  Here is where it got stupid. Kappy inexplicably took a sack out of the shotgun. 8 yard loss.  Tick tick tick. Then Harbaugh dials up a run for a 2 yard loss. Tick tick tick. Then Kappy bascially throws one away with time juuust about gone to stop the clock. Smart, but it shouldn’t have come to that. So, they had a 1st and goal from the 11 and were able to run 2 plays in 55 seconds. Awful.  The time outs were gone of course, as getting plays to the QB in time seems to  be an issue once again.

The second half was punctuated by the muffed punt for a FG, and the 50 yard Kappy run. The Niners finally started dialing up the pressure, and got to Tannehill. Culliver made some nice plays on their deep balls, but Miami has maybe 2 third string WRs at best. Donte Whitner had the pile-drive of the day when he picked up Regggie Bush and body slammed him to the turf. Aldon Smith looked great in getting pressure. There was one play early where A Smith lined up a half-step behind and off of Juston Smith’s right shoulder. I told Garrett, watch A Smith. He’s getting in there. Sure enough, he got through for his 1st sack.

This game, while the Niners had a few big plays, ad a couple nice passes, sure felt like a preseason game. The Niners played their base D for most of the 1st half, and while they stopped the big plays, they let Miami diddle around all over the place. The offense was a staid, boring, pack a bunch of guys on the line and run up the middle thype deal a lot of the time. What was encouraging was they ran out of the shotgun more in the 2nd half. LMJ broke off some nice runs in the 2nd half as the Niner line wore down Miami’s D line. And Kappy’s keeper was nice. It was set up by a run in the 2nd quarter where Kappy handed to Gore, and faked the keeper reverse. The RDE totally committed to the run on the play. Flash forward to the 4th quarter, and they ran the same plsy, with Kappy keeping the ball. The RDE totally bought the fake to Gore, and Kappy was free and clear.

This all plays like the Nolan/Singletary ‘let’s keep it close til the end and hopefully win’ philosophy. These coaches are either playing it close-to-the-vest because of the New England game coming up, or they seriously think they can win in the playoffs with this philosophy. Well, they can’t. Not unless they score 2 or 3 times on defense.  Kappy’s stats look OK, and the numbers all look like a win, but we let a crappy team hang around most of the game. But, if not for the bungled punt, this game could have gone either way. These coaches either have to generate a real offense, or suffer the consequences. The Niners need to really open things up for Kappy. Otherwise, the QB switch is merely window-dressing.

Glaring problems? We gave up way too many 3rd down plays to Miami, and the Niners didn’t do shit on 3rd down. I don’t know the numbers, but Miami must have been close to 50% converting, and the Nners around 15%.

Here are some pics I took of the game.

Opening drive offense – 2 WRs, 3 RBs. Miami rushing 5.

Opening drive defense – Base 3-4. Safeties deep. Bowman on Bush in the slot. Rogers backed out of press before the snap.

Later in the game – 5 rushers. Willis covers the strong side TE, Golsdon moves up to take the slot left WR.

One of the few multi-WR sets of the game on 3rd and one. Didn’t make it.

Kappy throws to Miller for a 2 yard gain. The only 3rd down conversion other than the 50 yard run.

Dixon with a nice run to the one.

Well, I’m hoping for an entertaining win for game 13.  Mainly because I’m taking my son, shelling out some hard (yeah, really) earned scratch, and making the drive all the way to the house that Stoneham built. Yes, the Stick, the Stinkhole, the mudpit, nee Monster Park. Site of many many MANY football games in my life.

Last game I saw was the Seattle game on Dec 12th vs Seattle. Near the end of Aluminum Mike Singletary’s tenure. The Niners trounced Seattle  40-21. No contest. However, I’ll never forget the 1st time I went to the Stick for a football game. They had the ever-lime-green and deadly astroturf installed for the ‘coronation’ of the 49ers moving to Candlestick from Kezar in 1971, after closing the rim around the stadium, which previously was open in the outfield. They might as well have played in the parking lot for all the padding there was on that field. It was the Minnesota game the last week of the 1972 season. Steve Spurrier (the man who cursed the #11) quarterbacked the Niners to the brink of the playoffs but they needed a win to get in.  All he could muster thru 3 quarters was 6 points, and the Niners were down 17-6. In stepped John Brodie, who had been hurt and had missed the previous 8 games.  He calmly and coolly led 2 4th quarter scoring drives. One to Gene Washington on a 25 yard strike, and the 2nd being a post route to Dick Whitcher as time was winding down. Luckily we were sitting in the south end zone, where the 4th quarter TDs took place. The place went nuts as the Niners made the playoffs. I’ll conveniently end the good feelings here.

So, flash forward to now, and . . . ?  Are we on the brink on another new age of dominant 49er football? Will the decision to start KaepernicK be forever called Harbaugh’s folly? Will it be his downfall? Will Harbaugh switch back to Smith if the Miami game doesn’t go well? Strange days indeed. And to coin a phrase from Mr. Mojo Risin, with a Miner 49er  connection, weird scenes inside the gold mine. . .

Go Niners! And go Kappy!

Moon over My Hammy? Hey, sorry, ended up in Denny’s last weekend trying to get out of town. I-5 was flooded in Stockton on our way to Paso Robles, so we headed east on 12 and it started raining so thick I decided to pull over. There was Denny’s and their Hobbit menu, and their idiotically named breakfast sandwich. Still raining like  a bitch so we turned around and went home.

Anyhow, back to the Miami game. As easy as this one sounds, the Dolphins front line does a good job of run defense (8th in the league), and getting sacks (6th in the league with 33), but that may be due to the fact that they give up so many yards in the air (27th in the league). So, the hope is the coaching staff lets things open up some to attack their weak secondary. Nolan Carroll particularly has been lit up most of the year, so attack him. Miami’s offense is a work in progress and isn’t really scaring anyone. They are 23rd passing, and 17th rushing, 28th overall, and 27th in points scored.

Just scored a pair of tix to the game (I’m taking my son), so I won’t have the pleasure of posting here on Sunday. $150.00 each for 2 on the 4o yard line, lower east (pullout) side. Guess I got to mothball my Smith jersey . . .

“I went down to the crossroads, fell down on my knees.”  God bless Robert Johson for that song all those years ago. Selling your soul for rock & roll fame, for the woman you love, or even being a successful football coach, the crossroads are upon the San Francisco 49ers.

This Miami game looms pretty large in the success of the 2012 football season.  This is the last home game til the end of the season, and the Niners cannot afford to lose this game. Miami is a decent enough team, but they are travelling across country and they are 5-7. Lose this one, and they could very easily lose the next 2 roadies in New England and Seattle. Neither are easy games by any stretch of the imagination. Go 0-3 heading into the last home game vs AZ would be a nasty set of circumstances, but even still, 9-6-1 would likely get them the wildcard. Go 2-2 and the Niners likely win the division, unless Seattle runs the table, but they could lose the bye week.  So, the Niners HAVE to take Miami and the Cards at home to have a realistic shot at keeping the division in play.

Seattle has AZ, SF & StL at home and Buffalo on the road.  A very easy schedule for them. Run the table, and 11-5 could very well win the division. There is Buffalo however. Seattle has been pretty woeful on the road til their recent Chicago win, and the weather in Buff is always an iffy proposition. The Niners would have to go 3-1 to stay ahead of them, win the division, and keep the #2 seed in play.

The good news for the #2 seed is both Chicago and Green Bay both have tough remaining schedules. GB has Det and Tenn at home, and Chi and Minn on the road. Chi has it even worse. They have Minn, AZ, and Det on the road, and Green Bay at home.

Of course the driving force of the team right now is the QB decision. Harbaugh put all his eggs in Kappy’s basket. At least as of now. If the Niners win the Miami game, then the pressure is off, or at least brought down a few notches. Lose this game, and the QB situation will become a full-blown controversy. Harbaugh will be 2nd-guessed over the switch mid-stream, and due to injury to boot, and it could very well fracture the locker room. I’m sure a lot of players were stunned by the switch. I was because it really left Harbaugh little wiggle room. That being said, if Kappy has a lousy game and the Niners lose, I have no doubt Harbaugh will go back to Alex Smith.

The ramifications of going back to Smith would be many. Sure, Kappy is the future, but would this delay the future? Would the Niners ride Alex to the playoffs, possibly to a Super Bowl win, and keep him? Sure they would. If so, does that mean Kappy’s on the block? Would he stand for a benching for another year to bide his time? What then? 2 years on the pine?

If Harbaugh sticks with Kappy, and they go one and done in the playoffs, would he lose the team because of the Smith benching? Next season could be a sea change if the players bail on his college rah rah style, which would then ring hollow due to how he bailed on the most important position on the team. Guys like Gore, Staley,  and VD could very well set the tone in the locker room as one being against Harbauh for blowing their last good shot. Justin Smith as well. The vets on the team could turn on Harbaugh, thus resulting in another coaching change. The year three curse of recent 49er coaches.

The beauty of all this is, win the next game, and a lot of this angst and worry goes away. Lose, and the sceptre of doom would begin to rise in the east.