Forty Niners Forever

Trent Baalke seems to be back in familiar territory. The blogospheres are erupting with “Aaaak, the Niners are losing players  and replacing them with stick figures!!” Yeah, they’ve lost Goldson, Soap, RJF, and replaced them with Craig Dahlly Dagger, perennial underachiever Glenn (don;t call me Tommy) Dorsey, and Dan (Reputa the beauta) Skuta, but this smacks of a couple years ago when the Niners watched as teams like Philly blew their collective wads signing can’t miss guys like Nnamdi Asomuaga, Mike Vick, and countless others. Baalke quietly signed guys like Carlos Rogers, Donte Whitner, Jonathan Goodwin, and David (used to be green) Akers as the feeding frenzy slowed down. They did trade for Anquan Bouldin as well. At this point I think the Niners sign one more semi-big name FA safety before heading off to the draft in April.

Baalke also nailed that 2011 draft to the tune of 5 starters and a bunch of contributors, including Aldon Smith, Kendall Hunter, Bruce Miller, and Chris (Mr. Diversity) Culliver. Not to mention our starting QB. The 2012 draft was a little less impactful, but the Niners did get solid backup LMJ, line depth in Joe Looney, and the big ??? that is AJ Jenkins. Free agent wise last year, the Niners netted Mario Manningham, and erstwhile semi-malcontent Rany Moss. Nothing spectacular, but the team was (*sob*) 6 yards from winning it all.

Faast forward to today, and the team is poised for a huge haul in the draft. They currently have 14 picks. 3 compensatory ones that they must use, and 11 to burn any way they see fit. Only one (a sixth rounder) went to Baltimore for Bouldin, and it appears that the Niners are already working to extend his deal to minimize the cap impact. Good move for a very tough WR.

We all know the needs going into the draft. A couple of big bodies up front, a safety or two who can replace Goldson and Whitner, speed at the WR spot, a TE with decent hands,  and  kicker. I think the Niners could very easily sign a FA safety and a FA TE. A kicker is possible as well. If they do that, then they can heavily target their holes with their multiple choices. Bundle them to trade up and position some draft spots for next year.

So, far the Niners are losing guys faster than they are gaining them, but there’s not much fretting yet. Goldson is finally able to put food on the table for his family by signing a $41 mill deal with Tampa, Walker signed with the Tit’ns, Soap to the Iggles, RJF to the Dolts (3/$22 mill? Dorsey’s a deal as the swap).  The guys apparently on the radar are Nnamdi Asomoaga (?) LaRon Landry, Charles Woodson, and Ed Reed. They are likely going to get one of these guys to replace Goldson, so Landry? He’s the youngest. I don’t know.

Louis Delmas is coming to town, but I’m not sure the Niners are ready to back up the truck for him. He’s a stud, though he’s injured too much. It would be a risk, but Reed and Woodson are old, Landry is another health risk, but could be had for relatively cheap. Sensabaugh’s better in coverage than Goldson, Bernard Pollard of the Ravens is Goldson’s clone.

I guess I’d cross my fingers and go with Delmas. He’s great in coverage. And I just found out Landry’s gone. So, Delmas it is.

BTW, nuckfut’s been banned.

Dashon Goldson’s grandmother apparently is weighing in on her grandson’s contract impasse with the 49ers.

Dashon Goldson ‏@thehawk38“@msrosecooking: @sf49ers showing no loyalty to my baby, @thehawk38 (Dashon Goldson ). Any team will be lucky to get him.”>Tell em grandma!

Haven’t we travelled this road before? Goldson bid his twitter goodbyes 2 years ago to us forgiving and unforgiving fans, as Dashon struck out to find his pot of gold. Unfortunately for him, the gold turned out to be brass, and he came back and meekly signed a 1 year 2 million dollar deal after turning down his 5 year/$25 mill deal that set him on the road to perdition anyway. After a couple pro-bowl seasons, and once again feeling his oats, Dashon wants something in the range of the Tim (?) Waddell (I know, he’s the weird-ass Olympic runner) deal, and 5 years, $40 million.

Uh, no. It ain’t gonna happen Dashon. Some people think he’s a top 5 safety.Yes he has his moments of being a disruptive force, but he also has a lot of brain-dead ones as well. Bad penalties, jumping routes, and the oft-occurring getting burned deep. The playoffs were fairly galling, but that was a system wide failure of not enough pressure, and the entire DB corps getting toasted.

The 49ers have already come out and said they would not franchise him. Not too surprising as that would force the Niners to pay him $7.1 mill. It also leads me to believe that if they won;t franchise him for $7, they won’t offer him a long term deal for $8 / year.  The 49ers are likely in the 5/30 range. A little rich for my blood, but I suppose it would do. The question is, does Dashon really think someone will pay him more than that? Frankly, the Niners could very well say we got the same deal from 2 years ago, skippy 5/25. Take it or hit the road, Jack.  Harsh? Sure. Mean? Yeah, I guess. Know what? Tough shit. Dashon isn’t Patrick Willis. Or NaVorro Bowman.  He’s replaceable. Moreso than those guys. And, like Baalke said, we can’t pay everyone. Plus, with all their leverage in this upcoming FA period and draft, they have about 20 different options to choose from.

So, the same thing will happen that happened two years ago. Dashon finds a lukewarm market (watered down even more by the rookie cap, which deflates a lot of the FA deals) and few suitors. If he’s lucky, the Niners will give him a 3/18 deal. And he’ll take it.

Uh, well, I got nothing. David (I miss by) Akers looks to be cut very soon to get the Niners under the salary cap. Think the Niners re-sign him once his price tag goes down? Dashon Goldson is still free to pursue his windmill of a long-term contract (in other words, no franchise tag for him).  Randy Moss is unofficially officially off the team. He’s saying he thinks he’s got a year left, just not in SF. Good luck Randy.

In other news, Cullen Jenkins, not part of the youth movement, is in the house for a look-see. At 32, he’s a little long in the tooth. But used as a rotating guy for both Old McDonald and Justin Smith, he’d definitely fill the bill. Short term anyway. He’s a popular guy and is making the rounds with the Giants and Seahawks next on the agenda. And, I’d be happier with Jenkins rather than a guy like Seymore Butts. The Darrelle Revis deal looks like a non-starter, thank God. Too much outlay for a possible one-year rental, and other than that?

Squadoosh.  Until the FA market hits, gonna be quiet.  There will be some more roster cuts as teams try to get under the cap. Hello Dallas.

Oft-maligned AJ Jenkins showed up in Atlanta to work out with Colin Kaepernick. Kappy, seen here hanging with the flotus (http://instagram.com/p/WVGSuGNBNd/) will hopefully get back to Atlanta and get AJ on schedule to make an impact this season. He’d better be all in, otherwise he’ll be cast out with the rest of the WR corps.

As it is now, the Niners need to pick up at least 4 WRs. Mossy Randy and Ted Ginn will go their own way, and  Kyle Williams and Mario Manningham are coming off pretty substantial injuries.

In other words, we are back to ground zero in regards to wideouts. Crabs had a very good year, and Manningham was doing very well before he was injured. He’s got the longest rehab, and last I heard he was out of his cast and boot, but other than that, no idea. The WRs in the draft aren’t fairly impressive, but there are some intriguing FAs out there.

Namely, the guy I liked in the 2008 draft, Ramses Barden out of SLObispo. He’s 6’6″ and is buried on the Giants depth chart. He had one start and had 9 catches for 138 yards. Decent route-runner who has great hands. He’d be a red zone wonder. The other guys are either very pricey (Mike Wallace, Wes Welker, Victor Cruz, Greg Jennings) or very brittle (Danny Amendola, Danario Alexander). Dwayne Bowe is available. How good is Bowe? He puts up big numbers, but I haven’t seen him play. I hear things like he doesn’t go after balls and is overrated but who knows? he’d help, but again, he’d be a big $$$ guy.  Not sure if he’s worth it.

There are plenty of 2nd-tier guys like Brian Hartline, Michael (Hey!) Spurlock, Manny Sanders, and David Nelson who could be signed fairly cheaply to provide depth.  I’m sure there are fliers in the draft we could get, but I haven’t looked into that yet.

Goin’ to Kansas City. Kansas City, here I come . . .

Much to the relief of just about 7,999,999 49er fans (there’s got to be someone out there that wants him to stay. Right Dennis?), the story being reported by just about everyone is that a deal has been struck by the 49ers and the KC Chiefs for the services of erstwhile 49er quarterback Alex Smith for the 2013 season and beyond. The niners will get a 2nd round pick (34th overall) and a 2nd round pick in 2014 if playing time requirements are met. I said way back in December that the 49ers could possibly get a 2nd and 4th for him if his value was seen as a need for any number of QB-needy teams (Cleve, KC, NYJ, or SD I mentioned back then), before he would be released by the team around 3/14. I guess I underestimated what they’d get. Ha! You all laughed at me when I said this! Who’s laughing now? Uh, anyway. Nothing but good news for the Niners all around.

Lots of people said that he’d simply be released, and my 1st reaction was that as well. But I quickly realized (in Dec) that there were no FAs worth more than a bag of balls. Tavaris Jackson? Matt Moore? Jason Campbell? Purple Drank? Passerooni. Also, there were no QBs coming out that would resemble anything like the last 2 QB-heavy drafts. Geno Smith? Matt (who?) Glennon? Matt (hot-tub) Barkley? None of these guys may even get drafted in the 1st round, and they are the cream of the shitty QB crop this year. Doesn’t mean they won’t make it in the NFL, just that they won’t walk in and start winning like A. Luck, RG III, and even Christian Ponder. No go there.

Therefore, the trade value for Alex. They get a 2 and anything, it’ll be a great deal. Looks like it’ll be a 2 and a 2. Getting anything for Smith would be a big feather in the cap of the Niners front office, seeing as he was going to be released anyway. The vortex of weirdness that seemed to keep the Niners and Alex tied together seems to have created the perfect storm to get max value on his departure.

Huzzah!

The 49ers come into this upcoming FA period (starting March 4th) loaded for bear in the draft department. They have (not including their 3 compensatory picks):

1. First round, No. 31 (No. 31 overall)
2. Second round, No. 31 (No. 61 overall)
3. Third round, No. 12 (No. 74 overall): Carolina Panthers via 2012 Draft trade
4. Third round, No 31 (No. 93 overall)
5. Fourth round, No. 31 (TBA)
6. Fifth round, No. 24 (TBA): Indianapolis Colts via 2012 Draft trade
7. Fifth round, No. 31 (TBA)
8. Sixth round, No. 12 (TBA): Miami Dolphins via 2012 Draft trade
9. Sixth round, No. 31 (TBA)
10. Seventh round, No. 21 (TBA): Cincinnati Bengals via Taylor Mays trade
11. Seventh round, No. 31, (TBA)

The Niners will get a 3rd (or 4th) round comp pick plus two 7th round comps for a total of 14 draft picks. That’s a lot of bodies. And they haven’t even traded Alex Smith yet. Who knows how many picks that brings?

Anyhow, this gives Trent Baalke and the braintrust many many scenarios to pursue in order to get their desired players. Frankly, I could see them trading down and getting picks for 2014. And trading for 2014 picks with Alex. The good news for the Niners is this is not a top-heavy draft, but it is a very deep draft for their particluar needs. DL and secondary. This draft is also notable for the fact there may not be a QB taken in the 1st round. Unheard of, but possible. I mean, if Aaron Rodgers can slip to 25, Geno Smith could slide to 35. Matt (hot-tub) Barkley? Hello 47. The Niners will have six picks in the first 4 rounds. They can address their pressing need for defensive backfield help (and depth) and add more stout bodies to the D line. Maybe a DE/OLB pass rusher as well.  The mid-late rounds will be reserved for wideouts, and maybe the possible TE if the Niners don’t deal for Ertz. Not likely but possible when you look at the struggles they had in the red zone. You’d think between Crabs and VD, someone would get open, but VD was usually double covered, Crabs drew a lot of attention, Moss was a non-factor, and the rest weren’t up to the task. Also, they’ll get a kicker late. I don’t think there’s much doubt re the fate of David Akers. He of the 63 yard FG in week 1. Although if he healthys up, who knows if Jimbo lets him stay.

I of course look to NJ49er and 12th (among others) to provide the essential need-to-know guys available in the draft. Once free agency rolls around and player moves are made throughout the league, I’ll start paying attention to the mock drafts and such. I don’t know too much about the players this year, but I’ve been pretty good at assessing the Niners needs these past few years. Really!

The Niners as of now have 12 free agents on their team. I’m not counting Brandon Jacobs or Billy (wrong way) Cundiff fior obvious reasons. They are:

Randy Moss
Ted Ginn
Delanie Walker
Leonard Davis
RJF
Ice Soap
Tavares Gooden
Larry Grant
Clark Haggis
Tremaine Brock (RFA)
Dashon Goldson
Darcel McBath (who?)

The shoo-ins are L Davis, RJF, Gooden, Brock, and Grant. They are all solid backups who look to stick around and won’t cost too much. Haggins and McBath I have no idea. They are deep on the depth chart, so sure, why not? Keep ’em.

The drops are fairly cut-and-dried as well. Randy (I guess I’m NOT the greatest WR in history) Moss and Ted Ginn, mos def.

The three biggest questions revolve around Dashon Goldson, Delanie Walker, and Isaac Sopoaga. Goldson, whose worth has been debated fairly regularly around these parts, is the lynchpin for this offseason. What they decide to do with him affects many other moves. Franchising him will a) piss him off, b) cost a lot of money ($7.4 mill), and put off for another year the quest to find a cover FS. Signing him will cost in the range of 5 years and $40 mill +. That’s a lot of scratch for a guy who, to me, has played very hot and cold for a long time, and is reachng the end of his shelf-life.

If they sign Goldson, then they have the option of tagging Delanie Walker. Another guy who has nearly as many fans a detractors. Walker is a great blocker and a big ST contributor. But he’s got poor hands. His 30% drop ratio was 2x as bad as any other TE in the league. If they tag him, it’ll cost close to $6 mill. A pretty penny for what amounts (to me) as a role-player. If he wants to be mroe valuable, catch the damn ball.

If they don’t tag either (by releasing or signing), there’s always the option to franchise Ice. Ha ha. Just kidding. He’d garner $8.3 mill as a tagged DL. He’s on the other side of the hill at this point, and since most teams in the NFL are passing teams, he’s barely in. He gets somewhere like 30% of the defensive snaps. he’s the one to go in the nickel. Not gonna happen. I don’t see the Niners signing him either. Unless he takes some kind of hometown deal.

Here’s a crazy thought. I don’t think the Niners tag anyone. The Niners have endless (14) draft picks in this draft and can easily replenish what they lose in Goldson and Walker. There will be some interesting FAs out there. Hey, mabye Tony Gonzalez would like to play closer to home for one more year.

This is the part of the season that, while intriguing, I don’t really get too thrilled about. I’ll cursorilly (sure, that’s a word) look over draft boards (Walterfootball, fftoolbox, Barrows, Maiocco, etc) and opine about who we’ll take. It’s interesting to see who actually gets drafted, and I was shocked as anyone when the Niners picked Kentwan Balmer, as I predicted a few years ago. Won me a semi-worthless signed Alex Smith jersey that I’ve worn to a few games (but noth the Miami game). I even picked the Niners to draft Colin Kaepernick 2 years ago. Huzzah. Blind squirrels and nuts, and all that.

This time around, we have the intrigue of what happens to Young Sir Alex (yes, the blog gift that keeps on giving), the possibility of drafting 14 players (unlikely, as the team is fairly loaded and doesn’t need to fill that many holes), and the general uncertainty of what the game plan is for this draft in the eyes of Trent Baalke and Jim Harbaugh.

My $0.02 on the subject is that the Niners will find a trading partner in KC for Alex (a 2nd round pick in 2013 and a 3rd round pick in 2014), and fool everyone by drafting Zach Ertz with their 1st pick. They can then jettison Delanie Walker and keep Garrett Celek. There are plenty of defensive linemen and DBs out there with their remaining picks, and they’ll get needed depth as they let Goldson sign a big deal elsewhere and move Culliver to FS.

Nothingsville. This is the least favorite time for sports fans. Baseball is on the horizon, basketball’s meaningless 1st season is in full swing. Yay. Not. Hockey got a late start and no one noticed. The Sharks won 7 in a row and now can’t buy a win. ZZZzzz… The Dubs are mired in a 5 game losing streak. Will they make the playoffs? Well, if they do, they are toast anyway. They are a decent young team that lives and dies by the 3. Bogut? Curry? If they could stay healthy, they might make noise, but both are a twisted ankle from missing 3 months.

The Niners? Well, we already discussed the departure of Tom Gamble to the Iggles. Apparently Tom’s dad was in the Iggle employ for 30 years or some shit. Bully. Adios, Tom. Not too too big a worry, as Baalke seems to have a pretty good handle on draft/personnel moves. I don’t think it was all Gamble behind the scenes.

Other than that, what? Talk draft for 2 months? More Alex Smith?  Gaaaaaaaaaaaaak. Shoot me now.