San Francisco 49ers Forever

Here we are on the brink of another wild weekend of football. This means so much more now that we are back in the playoffs after a 5 year absence. Here’s the schedule:

Saturday, Jan. 11
No. 6 Vikings at No. 1 49ers, 1:35 p.m. PT (NBC, stream on fuboTV here)
No. 6 Titans at No. 1 Ravens, 5:15 p.m. ET (CBS, stream on CBS All Access here)

Sunday, Jan. 12
No. 4 Texans at No. 2 Chiefs, 12:05 p.m. PT (CBS, stream on CBS All Access here)
No. 5 Seahawks at No. 2 Packers, 3:40 p.m. PT (Fox, stream on fuboTV here)

Minnesota gets the shortest end of the stick as they played last Sunday, have only 5 days to get ready, and they fly west to kill most of a day. They also have the disadvantage of being a dome team playing outside. Minn was 4-4 on the road, but all 4 losses came outdoors. They beat the Giants, Deetroit, Dallas, and the Chargers. 2 outdoor teams (NYG, Bolts) with a combined record of 9-23. So, there’s that.

The rest? We’ll see. Seattle I think is the class of the rest of the NFC. Maybe it’s just the way we kicked their ass, but I don’t see them taking Seattle. Rodgers looks skittish when pressure, and they can go south in a hurry. Hawks 24 – GB 17.

Ravens and Chiefs should roll. Balt 31 – Tenn 14 . . . . . . . . Chiefs 35 – Texans 20.

I think most of us were happy to see the Minnesota Vikings improbably go to New Orleans and kill the Saints Super Bowl dreams yet again. Two years ago there was the improbable catch and run on the last play of the game that thwarted the Saints Super Bowl march. Then there was the non-call on a blatant pass interference late in the Rams game that ended their comeback.

This last game? Well, Brees had two huge turnovers in the 2nd half to kill drives, and the Vikes did just enough to take the lead late and hold on to force NO to kick a field goal and go to overtime. NO had their chances, yet squandered them. Minn pressured Brees all day and had 7 hits, 3 sacks, and one strip sack.

The 49ers? Well, we had the luxury of having the week of to heal up. Dee Ford and Jaquiski Tartt are ready to go, and the possibility exists that Kwon Alexander will be ready. He is on the same fast track that JJ Watt went on to play last week and propel Houston to a win over the Bills.

Certainly good news. Thing is though, Minnesota brings a lot of pressure, and the Niners haven’t been very good lately at pass protection. Jimmy G has weathered the storms very well these last few weeks, but it sure would be nice to try and establish the run to set up play-action. Minnesota’s defense gives up a lot of yards, but their turnover numbers and sack numbers line up with ours pretty well. They do a good job in the red zone.

Their offense is pretty much the same. Nothing spectacular across the board but they run and pass efficiently. Dalvin Cook had a solid 1,230 yards rushing, and Stefon Diggs had an equally solid 1,135 yards receiving. The Saints shut him down, but Adam Thielen took up the slack against the Saints, and they have a tough TE of their own in Kyle Rudolph.

Even Kirk Cousins, the almost-49er, had a solid season. His rating of 107 is 4th in the league, and he doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. He didn’t light up the league in yards, but neither did a lot of other playoff QBs. Of the top 10 QBs in yards per game, only Mahomes and Brees (7th and 8th respectively) made the playoffs.

So, what does all this mean? Well, those of us who have been around a while surely remember when the 1987 49ers cruised through the regular season at 13-2 only to get annihilated by the 8-7 Vikings in the opening round of the playoffs. A crushing defeat that had reverberations for quite some time as it drove an unmendable wedge between Eddie D and Bill Walsh to the point where Walsh had to be talked back into coaching by Eddie and his players. Walsh didn’t want to end his run on that note, and came up with his best coaching year in 1988 when the Niners staggered down the stretch, but won 7 of 8 games to win the West, and eventually the Super Bowl.

Overconfidence should not be a factor, and the 49ers shouldn’t be looking forward to the possible Seahawks rematch as that game won’t be decided till Sunday, and everywhere you look, you see references to the 1987 Minnesota playoff game.

I hope Kyle is making the team aware of that game, and its ramifications.

AFC:

No. 5 Bills at No. 4 Texans, 1:35 p.m. PT (ESPN/ABC/WatchESPN)
No. 6 Titans at No. 3 Patriots, 5:15 p.m. PT (CBS stream on CBS All Access here)

And the NFC is:

No. 6 Vikings at No. 3 Saints, 10:05 a.m. PT (Fox, stream on fuboTV here)
No. 5 Seahawks at No. 4 Eagles, 1:40 p.m. PT (NBC, stream on fuboTV here)

Buffalo over Hou 20-13

NE over Tenn 26-20

Hawks over Iggles 28-24

NO over the Vikes 42-23

Got to say it has been a very successful run for the Bay Area teams. The Giants win 3 in 5, and Warriors win 3 in 5 for a total of 6 championships in 9 years. Throw in a 3 year playoff (and one unsuccessful Super Bowl) run by the Niners and you have a very solid claim as the sports mecca of champions in the 2010s. Boston is right there with three Super Bowls, two World Series wins, and one Stanley Cup in 2011, but fuck hockey. We win.

Speaking of Super Bowls, the 49ers could very well end the decade with a Super Bowl win of their own. A nice cap to solid decade of Bay Area dominance. Just don’t ask the Raiders or the A’s.

Anyhow, the upcoming wildcard weekend is especially gratifying, as we don’t have to play a down. But there are some great games on tap as this field of playoff teams is one of the strongest in a while. The upcoming games this weekend feature the AFC on Saturday:

No. 5 Bills at No. 4 Texans, 1:35 p.m. PT (ESPN/ABC/WatchESPN)
No. 6 Titans at No. 3 Patriots, 5:15 p.m. PT (CBS stream on CBS All Access here)

And the NFC is:

No. 6 Vikings at No. 3 Saints, 10:05 a.m. PT (Fox, stream on fuboTV here)
No. 5 Seahawks at No. 4 Eagles, 1:40 p.m. PT (NBC, stream on fuboTV here)

Shockingly, the Patriots fell out of the bye week with a desultory loss to the resurgent (hah!) Miami Dolphins to close the season out on a dour note. They are decent, but not the offensive juggernaut they appeared to be at the start of the season. They handed the week off to the KC Chiefs. The Titans are a hot and cold mess, but with NE playing at home they likely eke this one out. NE wins 26-20

Bills at Texans? This should be fun, if only to get a glimpse of Frank Gore. He hasn’t gotten a ton of touches lately, but he’s still playing well. 600 yards this year in a backup role. Buffalo wins 20-13

Saturday of course will be the game that affects our next opponent. More than likely the Seahawks. Seattle plays well on the road, and Philly has had a season ravaged by injuries but they have been playing well down the stretch as they were do-or-die most these last 4 wins in a row. Hawks 28-24

Vikings-Saint? Just as the Saints fans about their playoff game 2 years ago. Ooops. The Saints have been fucked out of advancing to the Super Bowl 2 years in a row, and I’d be hard-pressed to see them lose at home. Should be a barn-burner. Something like our game with them. NO wins 42-33.

Don’t know what the ratings were, but game 256 of the 2019 season was pretty fucking exciting and nerve -wracking. After cruising to a 13-0 halftime lead, the Seahawks suddenly couldn’t be stopped. I think Seattle converted every 3rd down play in the 2nd half. That is, until that fateful play and the fateful goal line stop by # 57 of the 49ers, linebacker Dan Bunz, uh, Dre Greenlaw, and the 49er win the Super Bowl, uh, NFC West with a 26-21 victory over the Seahawks.

You can’t make this shit up in its symmetry. 3rd year in, Walsh wins the West (and the Super Bowl) with a 13-3 record. 3rd year in, Shanny wins the West with a 13-3 record, and suddenly we are favorites, at least in the NFC, to win the Super Bowl.  I really thought the refs would kill us after the misguided personal foul on Ben Garland for blocking downfield. But Seattle got their ref-bitch with a non-PI call on the 2nd to last play in the end zone.

It was a well-called game to that point, but needless to say, nerves were frayed by then. Just like the last 5 games, it came down to the last play of the game. Unlike the Atlanta game, however, Jacob Hollister, Seattle’s 4th string TE, came up 2″ short after a monumental game-saving hit by Dre Greenlaw, with an assist by Fred Warner, that kept him out of the end zone.

Very thankful for the bye week, and we came out of this game relatively unscathed. Well, except for the benching of Ahkello Witherspoon. He had another game where he was a hair late on a lot of plays. He has been a mixed bag since his return from his foot injury, and the defensive backfield in general had an uneven 2nd half.

Got to hope against hope we at least get Ford back, if not Alexander.

Hell of a season folks! Been a lot of fun, but I sure prefer the early-season stompings to these nail-biting ulcer games! I had us at 10-6 and a WC. Never did I think we would be #1 in the NFC.

We all know the track record, we all know the frustration, we all know the ramifications of this game. To add to all that, Seattle is banged up and they have been fairly inconsistent, and have won a lot of close games. We of course are beat up on out D line and have been fairly inconsistent ourselves.

I have no idea how this game goes, but what we REALLY need to be aware of is misdirection plays, rollouts, and screens. Starting with Lamar Jackson, we have been getting burned relentlessly by our DEs not setting the edge and staying in their assigned lanes. They crash the middle on fakes and leave the edges wide open for rollouts, scrambles, and screens. I mean, fuck, Matt Ryan and Jared Goff faked us out on plays like that.

Russell Wilson will eat us alive if we don’t stay at home. This is my biggest worry tonight. If we don’t defend well, we can’t win. Not up there. Again, this game will be won by protecting Jimmy and pressuring RW.

Yet another gigantic game looms large in this improbable season of redemption for the 49ers. After the scorching hot start, however, the injuries have mounted, and the defense has not been the dominant force it was earlier in the season. Injuries to our interior line, DJ Jones, and Ronald Blair, have allowed opponent run games to do much better. Injuries to outside guys Kwon Alexander and Dee Ford have slowed the dominating pass rush significantly. From 1st in the league down to 30th in the past 3 games.

And this is the rub. A dominating defense can allow for mistakes by the offense. A good defense can maybe get away with one or two, but no more. We are at the breaking point. One mistake killed our chances against Atlanta, and nearly derailed the Rams game.

Seattle is as opportunistic a team as exists in the NFL. We cannot afford ANY mistakes. Yeah, they lost to AZ. Yes their line is makeshift and wildly inconsistent. Yes, they’ve lost a ton of impact players. Yes, they’ve dodged a LOT of bullets this season. Yet here they are poised to take the NFC West from our grasp.

Seattle is our nemesis. Our Kryptonite. Our hurdle to overcome to reach the promised land. Win this game, and we will be the prohibitive favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, if not be the favorites to win it all. Lose this game, and the road all of a sudden becomes 3 road playoff games. A tough row to hoe, and yes, one that has been done before, but given our injuries would be insurmountable.

I’d love to think we can pull this off, but this team NEEDS to generate a pass rush. Atlanta and LA both have shitty lines,and we did very little. Sure, we got pressure, but Ryan and Goff are both statues,and they were able to roll out and get clear passing lanes at will.

And, for fuck’s sake, STOP biting on the fakes. We have left the edge so empty of defenders so many times, it kills me. Goff must have rolled out 5 times and had no one within 15 yards of him. We looked like last year’s defense, giving up 15 yards per screen play. On our designed rollouts, we usually left a DE free to crush Jimmy G.

I’d love to see us with this game, and I hate to say it, but I don’t see it. Fat Bastard notwithstanding. The only way we win this game is in a shootout. And winning shootouts in Seattle is a monumental task.

Gonna be busy, but here goes. Turns out that the Atl loss hurt more than expected after the Seahawks laid an egg against AZ. We could have treated this game as our bye week before the bye week, but alas, we are still fighting for position.

Thing is, AZ won by bringing pressure and rushing 5 at times. We may need to do that because we have seeen that by not getting pressure, we don’t do well on defense. We are getting guys close, but Goff and Ryan are nothing like Russell Wilson. The Hawks have lost their share of RBs, but now the word is Beast Mode is winging his way to Seattle to play for Pete again.

No idea what shape he’s in, but certainly an interesting little wrinkle.  What has been killing me is the fact that Bosa and Armstead have been biting on 90% of the inside fakes. Goff was clear to throw on play action rollouts all night on Saturday. Screens were overpursued and worked most of the time. Saleh made some decent adjustments, but all in all, except for Fred Warner’s sniffing out the swing pass, a poor defensive performance.

Yet another game where I’m gonna say, it’s all about getting to the QB. And protecting ours. Both lines were dominated last Saturday, and they all need to improve to beat Seattle.

Get a little action in. Here we go with the prelude to ecstacy. Strangely enough, the Rams are still in the playoff hunt, so this isn’t a walkover game like it could be. Thing is though, they were in the playoff hunt last week when they were slaughtered like the Lambs they are. Earlier in the year, we ran the ball down their throats, and the 20-7 score was not indicative of the domination.

Now however, we are banged up, and our pressure, once so dominating, has faded these last few weeks. Pressure is IMPERATIVE as we all saw what a good quarterback on a bad team can do as Matt Ryan scored 2 late TDs with relative ease to beat us on the last play.

A fast start is also imperative, as I think we can pretty easily crush their spirit and do what we did last time. Give them hope however, and we can very well end up like last week’s outcome.

27-10 Niners.

Here we sit, 11-3, completely overreaching early season aspirations, yet we are on the precipice of disaster. Yes, we control our destiny. Yes, we are one of the better teams in the league. But if we lose this next game, we stand to be shut down the rest of the season. Roll into Seattle a game down and we are toast, and might as well rest all the starters.

Which may not be a bad thing. I don’t know. The team that has overcome a huge amount of injuries suddenly isn’t. The Atlanta loss was galling at best, and an indictment of a defensive line that couldn’t beat a 2nd string Falcon offensive line that has given up a whopping 41 sacks through 14 games. With Jared Goff coming into town, the recipe for letting him sit comfortably in the pocket raises alarm bells in my head, regardless of Richard Sherman and K’Waun Williams coming back.

Robert Saleh needs to make some kind of adjustments to a pass rush that has reverted to last year’s ineptitude. After being shut out by the New Orleans O line,  2 sacks against Atl’s banged up line was unacceptable as the defense got shredded for 2 late TDs (well, 3 including the fucked up Cal play), and gave the game away after the Niners pushed the lead to 9 to start the 4th quarter.

We are where we are on the defensive line, and there is no help coming in the immediate future, so we need a better game plan that letting Goff pick our secondary apart.

Make it happen, Robert.

On the offensive line we also have a glaring issue with Ben Garland. He was beaten like a drum up the middle numerous times, and with Aaron Donald coming around, we need to adjust accordingly. Rollouts and quick slants may be the order of the day as the run blocking has been fair to middling , but the pass blocking has been awful. I see us running a lot, but I think LA will stack the box to stop it.

The season hangs in the balance as this team needs a victory to roll into Seattle with some confidence.