Be Careful What You Ask For

I think most of us were happy to see the Minnesota Vikings improbably go to New Orleans and kill the Saints Super Bowl dreams yet again. Two years ago there was the improbable catch and run on the last play of the game that thwarted the Saints Super Bowl march. Then there was the non-call on a blatant pass interference late in the Rams game that ended their comeback.

This last game? Well, Brees had two huge turnovers in the 2nd half to kill drives, and the Vikes did just enough to take the lead late and hold on to force NO to kick a field goal and go to overtime. NO had their chances, yet squandered them. Minn pressured Brees all day and had 7 hits, 3 sacks, and one strip sack.

The 49ers? Well, we had the luxury of having the week of to heal up. Dee Ford and Jaquiski Tartt are ready to go, and the possibility exists that Kwon Alexander will be ready. He is on the same fast track that JJ Watt went on to play last week and propel Houston to a win over the Bills.

Certainly good news. Thing is though, Minnesota brings a lot of pressure, and the Niners haven’t been very good lately at pass protection. Jimmy G has weathered the storms very well these last few weeks, but it sure would be nice to try and establish the run to set up play-action. Minnesota’s defense gives up a lot of yards, but their turnover numbers and sack numbers line up with ours pretty well. They do a good job in the red zone.

Their offense is pretty much the same. Nothing spectacular across the board but they run and pass efficiently. Dalvin Cook had a solid 1,230 yards rushing, and Stefon Diggs had an equally solid 1,135 yards receiving. The Saints shut him down, but Adam Thielen took up the slack against the Saints, and they have a tough TE of their own in Kyle Rudolph.

Even Kirk Cousins, the almost-49er, had a solid season. His rating of 107 is 4th in the league, and he doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. He didn’t light up the league in yards, but neither did a lot of other playoff QBs. Of the top 10 QBs in yards per game, only Mahomes and Brees (7th and 8th respectively) made the playoffs.

So, what does all this mean? Well, those of us who have been around a while surely remember when the 1987 49ers cruised through the regular season at 13-2 only to get annihilated by the 8-7 Vikings in the opening round of the playoffs. A crushing defeat that had reverberations for quite some time as it drove an unmendable wedge between Eddie D and Bill Walsh to the point where Walsh had to be talked back into coaching by Eddie and his players. Walsh didn’t want to end his run on that note, and came up with his best coaching year in 1988 when the Niners staggered down the stretch, but won 7 of 8 games to win the West, and eventually the Super Bowl.

Overconfidence should not be a factor, and the 49ers shouldn’t be looking forward to the possible Seahawks rematch as that game won’t be decided till Sunday, and everywhere you look, you see references to the 1987 Minnesota playoff game.

I hope Kyle is making the team aware of that game, and its ramifications.

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About unca_chuck

Lifelong SF 49ers, SF Giants, and Golden State Warriors fan
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28 Responses to Be Careful What You Ask For

  1. unca_chuck's avatar unca_chuck says:

    The numbers support the bye team with home field has a huge advantage. Here’s the full article.

    https://www.thesportsgeek.com/blog/nfl-playoff-betting-does-having-a-bye-hurt-or-help-793/

    The gist of it is:

    The NFL realigned into 8 divisions with 4 teams apiece when the Houston Texans joined the league in 2002. Since then, only 8 teams that played in the Wild Card round wound up advancing to the Super Bowl. They were the 03 Panthers, 05 Steelers, 06 Colts, 07 and 11 Giants, 08 Cardinals, 10 Packers and 12 Ravens. 6 of those teams won it all.

    Since this article was written in 2018, that means that 8 of the 136 wild card round teams made it to the Super Bowl.

    Once the NFL expanded to 32 teams, 2 teams in each conference received a first-round bye. Previously, there was only 1 team in each conference that would get a bye until the divisional round. From 1990-02, the league had 6 divisions, yet 12 teams still made the playoffs. That means that there were a trio of Wild Card entrants in each conference.

    During that 13-year span, however, just 4 teams advanced through the Wild Card round and eventually made it to the Super Bowl, and all of them came out of the AFC. Those were the 92 Bills, 99 Titans, 97 Broncos and 00 Ravens. The Broncos and Ravens went on to win the Super Bowl.

    Having a bye also means you get at least one playoff home game, which is massive in the NFL. In football, home teams have won playoff games 64.7 percent of the time, which is the highest mark among home teams in any of the 4 major American professional sports. In fact, that winning percentage of 64.7 percent is actually nearly 5 percent higher than the regular season winning percentage of home teams in football (57.1).

  2. unca_chuck's avatar unca_chuck says:

    Yeah, it really underlines the importance of home field in the playoffs more than anything else. Not that that saved the Saints.

  3. unca_chuck's avatar unca_chuck says:

    Green Bay sure lucked out though getting home field and the bye. That is especially important for them seeing where they play.

  4. unca_chuck's avatar unca_chuck says:

    New thread is up.

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