Forty Niners Forever

Goin’ to Kansas City. Kansas City, here I come . . .

Much to the relief of just about 7,999,999 49er fans (there’s got to be someone out there that wants him to stay. Right Dennis?), the story being reported by just about everyone is that a deal has been struck by the 49ers and the KC Chiefs for the services of erstwhile 49er quarterback Alex Smith for the 2013 season and beyond. The niners will get a 2nd round pick (34th overall) and a 2nd round pick in 2014 if playing time requirements are met. I said way back in December that the 49ers could possibly get a 2nd and 4th for him if his value was seen as a need for any number of QB-needy teams (Cleve, KC, NYJ, or SD I mentioned back then), before he would be released by the team around 3/14. I guess I underestimated what they’d get. Ha! You all laughed at me when I said this! Who’s laughing now? Uh, anyway. Nothing but good news for the Niners all around.

Lots of people said that he’d simply be released, and my 1st reaction was that as well. But I quickly realized (in Dec) that there were no FAs worth more than a bag of balls. Tavaris Jackson? Matt Moore? Jason Campbell? Purple Drank? Passerooni. Also, there were no QBs coming out that would resemble anything like the last 2 QB-heavy drafts. Geno Smith? Matt (who?) Glennon? Matt (hot-tub) Barkley? None of these guys may even get drafted in the 1st round, and they are the cream of the shitty QB crop this year. Doesn’t mean they won’t make it in the NFL, just that they won’t walk in and start winning like A. Luck, RG III, and even Christian Ponder. No go there.

Therefore, the trade value for Alex. They get a 2 and anything, it’ll be a great deal. Looks like it’ll be a 2 and a 2. Getting anything for Smith would be a big feather in the cap of the Niners front office, seeing as he was going to be released anyway. The vortex of weirdness that seemed to keep the Niners and Alex tied together seems to have created the perfect storm to get max value on his departure.

Huzzah!

The 49ers come into this upcoming FA period (starting March 4th) loaded for bear in the draft department. They have (not including their 3 compensatory picks):

1. First round, No. 31 (No. 31 overall)
2. Second round, No. 31 (No. 61 overall)
3. Third round, No. 12 (No. 74 overall): Carolina Panthers via 2012 Draft trade
4. Third round, No 31 (No. 93 overall)
5. Fourth round, No. 31 (TBA)
6. Fifth round, No. 24 (TBA): Indianapolis Colts via 2012 Draft trade
7. Fifth round, No. 31 (TBA)
8. Sixth round, No. 12 (TBA): Miami Dolphins via 2012 Draft trade
9. Sixth round, No. 31 (TBA)
10. Seventh round, No. 21 (TBA): Cincinnati Bengals via Taylor Mays trade
11. Seventh round, No. 31, (TBA)

The Niners will get a 3rd (or 4th) round comp pick plus two 7th round comps for a total of 14 draft picks. That’s a lot of bodies. And they haven’t even traded Alex Smith yet. Who knows how many picks that brings?

Anyhow, this gives Trent Baalke and the braintrust many many scenarios to pursue in order to get their desired players. Frankly, I could see them trading down and getting picks for 2014. And trading for 2014 picks with Alex. The good news for the Niners is this is not a top-heavy draft, but it is a very deep draft for their particluar needs. DL and secondary. This draft is also notable for the fact there may not be a QB taken in the 1st round. Unheard of, but possible. I mean, if Aaron Rodgers can slip to 25, Geno Smith could slide to 35. Matt (hot-tub) Barkley? Hello 47. The Niners will have six picks in the first 4 rounds. They can address their pressing need for defensive backfield help (and depth) and add more stout bodies to the D line. Maybe a DE/OLB pass rusher as well.  The mid-late rounds will be reserved for wideouts, and maybe the possible TE if the Niners don’t deal for Ertz. Not likely but possible when you look at the struggles they had in the red zone. You’d think between Crabs and VD, someone would get open, but VD was usually double covered, Crabs drew a lot of attention, Moss was a non-factor, and the rest weren’t up to the task. Also, they’ll get a kicker late. I don’t think there’s much doubt re the fate of David Akers. He of the 63 yard FG in week 1. Although if he healthys up, who knows if Jimbo lets him stay.

I of course look to NJ49er and 12th (among others) to provide the essential need-to-know guys available in the draft. Once free agency rolls around and player moves are made throughout the league, I’ll start paying attention to the mock drafts and such. I don’t know too much about the players this year, but I’ve been pretty good at assessing the Niners needs these past few years. Really!

The Niners as of now have 12 free agents on their team. I’m not counting Brandon Jacobs or Billy (wrong way) Cundiff fior obvious reasons. They are:

Randy Moss
Ted Ginn
Delanie Walker
Leonard Davis
RJF
Ice Soap
Tavares Gooden
Larry Grant
Clark Haggis
Tremaine Brock (RFA)
Dashon Goldson
Darcel McBath (who?)

The shoo-ins are L Davis, RJF, Gooden, Brock, and Grant. They are all solid backups who look to stick around and won’t cost too much. Haggins and McBath I have no idea. They are deep on the depth chart, so sure, why not? Keep ’em.

The drops are fairly cut-and-dried as well. Randy (I guess I’m NOT the greatest WR in history) Moss and Ted Ginn, mos def.

The three biggest questions revolve around Dashon Goldson, Delanie Walker, and Isaac Sopoaga. Goldson, whose worth has been debated fairly regularly around these parts, is the lynchpin for this offseason. What they decide to do with him affects many other moves. Franchising him will a) piss him off, b) cost a lot of money ($7.4 mill), and put off for another year the quest to find a cover FS. Signing him will cost in the range of 5 years and $40 mill +. That’s a lot of scratch for a guy who, to me, has played very hot and cold for a long time, and is reachng the end of his shelf-life.

If they sign Goldson, then they have the option of tagging Delanie Walker. Another guy who has nearly as many fans a detractors. Walker is a great blocker and a big ST contributor. But he’s got poor hands. His 30% drop ratio was 2x as bad as any other TE in the league. If they tag him, it’ll cost close to $6 mill. A pretty penny for what amounts (to me) as a role-player. If he wants to be mroe valuable, catch the damn ball.

If they don’t tag either (by releasing or signing), there’s always the option to franchise Ice. Ha ha. Just kidding. He’d garner $8.3 mill as a tagged DL. He’s on the other side of the hill at this point, and since most teams in the NFL are passing teams, he’s barely in. He gets somewhere like 30% of the defensive snaps. he’s the one to go in the nickel. Not gonna happen. I don’t see the Niners signing him either. Unless he takes some kind of hometown deal.

Here’s a crazy thought. I don’t think the Niners tag anyone. The Niners have endless (14) draft picks in this draft and can easily replenish what they lose in Goldson and Walker. There will be some interesting FAs out there. Hey, mabye Tony Gonzalez would like to play closer to home for one more year.

This is the part of the season that, while intriguing, I don’t really get too thrilled about. I’ll cursorilly (sure, that’s a word) look over draft boards (Walterfootball, fftoolbox, Barrows, Maiocco, etc) and opine about who we’ll take. It’s interesting to see who actually gets drafted, and I was shocked as anyone when the Niners picked Kentwan Balmer, as I predicted a few years ago. Won me a semi-worthless signed Alex Smith jersey that I’ve worn to a few games (but noth the Miami game). I even picked the Niners to draft Colin Kaepernick 2 years ago. Huzzah. Blind squirrels and nuts, and all that.

This time around, we have the intrigue of what happens to Young Sir Alex (yes, the blog gift that keeps on giving), the possibility of drafting 14 players (unlikely, as the team is fairly loaded and doesn’t need to fill that many holes), and the general uncertainty of what the game plan is for this draft in the eyes of Trent Baalke and Jim Harbaugh.

My $0.02 on the subject is that the Niners will find a trading partner in KC for Alex (a 2nd round pick in 2013 and a 3rd round pick in 2014), and fool everyone by drafting Zach Ertz with their 1st pick. They can then jettison Delanie Walker and keep Garrett Celek. There are plenty of defensive linemen and DBs out there with their remaining picks, and they’ll get needed depth as they let Goldson sign a big deal elsewhere and move Culliver to FS.

Nothingsville. This is the least favorite time for sports fans. Baseball is on the horizon, basketball’s meaningless 1st season is in full swing. Yay. Not. Hockey got a late start and no one noticed. The Sharks won 7 in a row and now can’t buy a win. ZZZzzz… The Dubs are mired in a 5 game losing streak. Will they make the playoffs? Well, if they do, they are toast anyway. They are a decent young team that lives and dies by the 3. Bogut? Curry? If they could stay healthy, they might make noise, but both are a twisted ankle from missing 3 months.

The Niners? Well, we already discussed the departure of Tom Gamble to the Iggles. Apparently Tom’s dad was in the Iggle employ for 30 years or some shit. Bully. Adios, Tom. Not too too big a worry, as Baalke seems to have a pretty good handle on draft/personnel moves. I don’t think it was all Gamble behind the scenes.

Other than that, what? Talk draft for 2 months? More Alex Smith?  Gaaaaaaaaaaaaak. Shoot me now.

Interestingly, Cary Williams will be neither fined nor suspended (and he wasn’t penalized) for his two-handed shove of an official during the 2nd quarter of the Super Bowl. While this should have been an instant ejection, it elicited no response from anyone on the field or in the booth.  Even more interestingly, Frank Gore two weeks earlier in the NFL Championship game, was fined $10,500 for his egregious flashing of his calves. I’m surprised Gore isn’t being forced to go to fashion rehab.

I wonder what kind of message this sends to the players. Well, I don’t. What it says is we already know that there are plays that are too close to call, or in too big a situation to call, but this is a real conundrum. It wasn’t a case of mistaken identity. Williams knew he was shoving a referee. The NFL decides to turn a blind eye to it. No harm, no foul. Right? Well . . .

To me this means, the bigger the game, the more one can get away with. Did Navorro Bowman impede Julio Jones in the NFC Championship game, thus saving our season for one more game? Could be. Did Bruce Miller get held on the KO return? By TWO Ravens? Well, yes. Crabs? Well, debatable, but it sure looked like shit that gets called all the time. The Niners got a call here and there, but the overwhelming tilt was to the Ravens side in my opinion. Much like the Seattle/Pittsburgh Super Bowl of a few years ago, this one sure had the smack of the refs giving some help. To what end? I don’t know. I didn’t give a shit about the Sea/Pitt Super Bowl, but Pittsburgh got a ton of calls go their way. Enough to tilt the game? Sure. This one? You betcha.

Hey, it’s 2 months til anything to write about. This is all I got. I just think it’s hysterical that Gore gets a $10,500 fine for his socks being too low, but a ref gets shoved by a clearly pissed off player, and nothing happens. I guess the league is still pissed off at the refs . . .

Well, the seaon comes to an inglorious end. Lots of changes look to be on the future. David (lefty) Akers, Alex Smith, Dashon Goldson, Ted Ginn, Leonard Davis, Jonathan Gooodwin, Larry Grant, Ricky Jean, Randy Moss, and Delanie Walker (among a few other backups) are all UFAs. Frankly a lot of these guys look to leave. I’d put Alex, Goldson, Ginn, L Davis, Goodwin, and Randy (what, me try?) on the goodbye list.

Grant proved to be an able back up last year when Willis went down. He’s a keeper. Ricky Jean may not be big enoung in the middle, but he’s a solid back up on the line.  He stays. The rest?  Goodwin’s old, maybe a one year deal. L Davis is a possible keeper, but we have Kilgore and Looney waiting in the wings. Alex? Please. If he wants to stick around an be a backup, he’s a fool. It’s all in his court. Moss? Fuck him. If he can’t get up for a Super Bowl then see ya. Ginn? 4th string WR and a fading punt returner. Bye. Goldson wants a huge payday. Take the 3/25 from 3 years ago, or adios muchacho. Walker? He’s too inconsistent. he has great games followed by games (like the Atl game) where balls clank off his hands like, uh, things that bounce off other things. Sue me, I’m tired.

The Niners have a ton (14) of picks and can afford to get some good FA WRs, CBs, or whatever they don’t nail in the draft by. The core of the team is solid, and they should be able to fill ouyt the roster going forward.

I’m out of here for a while. See y’all next week. Time to forget me some football and hit the slopes. Love that run off to the right there off the Lincoln Chair at Sugar Bowl.

Not much to say. Despite handing Baltimore tons of points, the Niners still had the opportunity to win this game. Unfortunately, the play calling got weird on that last drive. And the drive before it. And on the 2 pt conversion. We never used the fade all year. Then we use it to no success 5 times in the red zone. Weird.

My daughter is wearing my Super Bowl XXIII t-shirt from the Aptos Club. Epic T-shirt.

Well, hell. The game WILL actually happen. In what seems like the college bowl game six week layoff, the Niners and Ravens will finally strap on their gear and start smacking heads. The reporters have all put their pens and papers away, the players and coaches are safely tucked into their beds, the ridiculous, stupid, and overblown comments have all floated away into the ether, and somewhere Kenny Stabler is drinking and laughing in a corner bar.

I’m fairly confident the Niners will wear these guys down in the end and win going away. And I won’t have to worry about whether Ray Lewis will do his Elaine Benes dance, where Chris Culliver will get his sensitivity training, or where Alex Smith will end up. If only for the duration of the game.

Well, sort of. The ramifications of the gay-gate comments of Chris Culliver are still bouncing around the myriad studios of all the media present at this pig-trough of excessive coverage. But today thankfully, the teams can hunker down, lick their collective wounds over Callahan-gate, Antler-gate, and now swing-the-other-way-gate. I’m sure at some point in the near future Chris Culliver will be duct-taped to the goal post, or red-coded (you can’t handle the truth!) but in reality, this was a fairly big distraction. It even went to far as two of Culliver’s teammates (Ahmad Brooks and Issac Sopoaga) disavowing participating in the “It gets better” campaign. They said they thought it was an anti-bullying, not anti-gay bullying piece. The vid has been pulled from the video producer’s website, and the consternation swirls. So, yeah, I’m sure the locker room is very happy with young Chris as this shitstorm continues to swirl around the team. There’s talk of sending Culliver to a day with the New York Gay Football League to see that gays can play just as hard as their straight bretheren.  Certaily this is a teachable moment for the idio . . . uh kid.

BUT, the talk is over. It is now time to batten down the hatches and work through the final preparations for Super Bowl XLVII. I’m starting to miss the talk of Kappy being invincible, Balt’s defense being impenetrable, Flacco’s unstoppable, and the Niner D immovable, or vice versa.

I think the NFL needs to do away with the extra week between the championship games and the Super Bowl. Too much time for too little payoff. The league went back and forth with this about 12 years ago, and I didn’t notice an appreciable difference. The 1st week is filled with nothing anyway. Might as well start the feeding frenzy the Monday after the Champ games. Less press access, and more regular practice during the week.