Forty Niners Forever

Wow. Quite the week for the Houston Texans. Fans were seen burning Matt Schaub jerseys outside Reliant Stadium after the Seattle loss last week. This after Schaub’s 3rd pick 6 in 3 weeks. The last of which pretty much handed the game to Seattle, as it came with 3 minutes left, and Seattle pretty much DOA on offense that game. It was a dumb throw on 3rd and 4. If he takes the sack, they punt and Seattle gets the ball at the 20 or inside. Instead, the score is tied, and all the momentum shifts to Seattle. He also threw a pick 6 in the win over the Titans, and the loss to the Ravens.

Gary Kubiak responded by backing Schaub down the line (for now), and the team had a players-only meeting today, ostensibly one would think, to support for Matty Iceberg. The point being, Houston is coming here with a major chip on their shoulder, and they are pissed off. 2 losses in a row, and their QB on thin ice does that. The turning point in the game to me was when Brian Cushing went out with a concussion in the 2nd half. Russell Wilson had big gains on the run, and the pressure dwindled. Seattle got their 1st score after he went out. Still, the Texans had the game in hand til the pick 6.

So, where does that lead us? Well, these guys are going to come out playing with a little extra giddyup, I’d think. Their asses are hanging in the wind if they come back 2-3. They have a strong run game with Arian Foster, and Matty Schaub can throw with the best of them, given time. And therein lies the key. If there ever was a game where we need to get pressure on a QB, it’s this one. Schaub is accurate when given time, and did a pretty good job against a very tough Seattle defense. For the most part. Lynch had to fight for every yard, and Wilson looked like shit through the air against JJ Watt and co. This could be a very tough day for the Niners on both sides of the ball.

It appears at this point that Brian Cushing is a game-day call. He participated in ‘light’ practice this morning, but has to pass all the protocols to hit the field Sunday night. The Niners? Staley is back, and he’ll be lined up against JJ. That’ll be worth the price of admission alone. The rest of the team? Man. Who knows? It was good to see the run game working against the Rams, but they suck. I keep hoping for some adjustments by the coaches regarding using a quicker passing attack, and getting the plays to the line and going much faster. Lynch had some success running, but they were hard-fought yards. Wilson was 12-23 for 123 yards and a pick for a 49.7 QBR. Given the state of our WRs, I don;t hold out a ton of hope for a breakout performance by Kappy.

Still and all, this is a statement game for the 49ers as well. They’d better take care of business at home, or they will seriously be hurting for the division. Yeah, it’s early, but losing this game and another tie breaking scenario with Seattle hurts their playoff chances. The wildcard is a far-off concern, but if the team continues to struggle against good teams, especially at home, this could be a quietly desperate season for the Red and Gold. In my mind it would definitely hurt the status of one Gregg Roman. This offense shows very little creativity in the passing game.

In a revolting turn of events yesterday, the Houston Texans snatched defeat from the jaws of victory after beating Seattle on all sides of the football. Matt Schaub threw one of the most ridiculous passes known to mankind with 3 minutes left. After Houston’s Jon Joseph picked off Wilson with 5:40 left in the game, and facing a 3rd and 4 from the Seattle 40, Schaub tried to hit TE Daniels by throwing across the field while moving backwards. He floated a dying quail that was easily picked off by Sherman for a pick 6. This tied the score in what was an otherwise dominating performance by Houston’s defense. Wilson was harassed all day and was held to 12 for 23, 123 yards and a pick. Marshawn Lynch had his usual tough day, running for 98 yards, but coughed up a fumble early. Wilson did spark the Seahawk late by scrambling for a ton of yards, including the 4 yard scramble on 4th and 3 from the Houston 7. A pretty big fail when you consider a couple guys had decent shots to stop him short. That made the score 20-13 and set up the later shenanigans.

This stinks for the local boys, as 4 games into the season, the Niners are already 2 games out of the lead for the division. This also makes the Houston game large in that we need to keep pace with Seattle for common opponents, and also, just to keep up with them. The galling part to this is Seattle could very easily be 2-2 with the Niners as both their road games were eminently winnable by both Carolina and Houston. The Carolina game was decided by a late fumble by DeAngelo Williams just as Carolina was nearing the end zone to take the lead late in the 4th quarter. And then the mush-head pass by Schaub to send this last game into OT. Lucky? Sure. But they made their luck by making those plays in crunch time.

The point being, Seattle is learning how to win on the road. Either by luck or by cruck, this is bad news for the 49ers.
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Also, in case you missed in on the previous thread, Twinfan, eminent 49ers and Giants fan, and blogger extraordinaire, is running a baseball playoff contest for a free computer. I’ll give the specs later, but the entry is free. You don’t even have to take the computer if you don’t want it, but it is a bad-ass system with all the bells and whistles. Here are the details.

From Twinfan:

BTW, i’m having another contest for the major league postseason. Nice prize as always. Join in, you don’t have to accept the prize, you just can play for bragging rights. The contest details are at the link below and Craig will repost them this evening. the invitation is for all who post on chuck’s blog. He’s in. Snarkk and Flavor are in and several more. maybe i’ll do a comment here again next week.

The Post Season Contest

In a game that started pretty badly for the Niners, they managed to get it in gear and trounce the hornless Rams 35-11. Encouraging was the fact that the offense opened up once Frank Gore got some touches and the passing game started having some success for a few drives. The bad news? Well, it was the Rams. A team that seemed to be on the rise due to their 4-1-1 record vs the NFC West last year. These days, after ditching Danny Amendola and Stephen Jackson, thay are as toothless as a baby lamb. The defense is getting regularly shredded up the middle, and the Niners were happy to oblige. To the tune of 216 on the ground. 158 courtesy of Mr. Gore.

The passing game clicked for a little while as Gore loosened up the Ram defense. Kappy had some big throws to Boldin, and VD made a couple plays. Baldwin even got into the act. McDonald has been providing some nice catches, and the Niners were able to get Kappy going early by adding in some rollouts and quicker passes to get him in rhythm. It ended up working out.

The defense was shakey early, giving up a few too many 3rd downs, but settled down nicely as NaVorro Bowman had a game for the ages. Tremaine Brock had a nice breakup that Donte Whitner picked off. Whitner though handed an interception right to Tavon Austin for a big mistake. In the end though, the offense struggled in the 2nd half with a Gore fumble and a bunch of 3-and-outs. Still and all, a road in on a short week will be gladly taken by this team. Rest up and scheme up for the upcoming Houston game in 10 days. At least for this weekend, I’m a Texan fan.

Well, we are almost at the make-or-break point already in this young season. A loss to St Louis would put the Niners 2.5 (possibly 3) games behind Seattle, and leave them 0-2 in the division. Seeing as Seattle has 2 tough roadies coming up (Houston and Indy) and they are fairly crappy on the road, the hope is the Niners can pick up a game in the next 2 contests, as the Niners come home to play the 2-1 Texans after this game tonight. Playing on a short week couldn’t come at a lousier time, but all teams are getting banged up.

Here’s the Niners injury report:

Mike Iupati G Shoulder Full Participation Probable
Vernon Davis TE Hamstring Limited Participation Questionable
Frank Gore RB Knee Full Participation Probable
Carlos Rogers CB Knee Full Participation Probable
Nnamdi Asomugha CB Knee Did Not Participate Questionable
Jonathan Goodwin C Elbow Limited Participation Probable
Raymond Ventrone S Concussion Limited Participation Questionable
Ray McDonald DT Ankle Limited Participation Probable
Kyle Williams WR Rib Limited Participation Questionable
Justin Smith DT Shoulder Limited Participation Probable
Navorro Bowman LB Wrist Limited Participation Probable
Anthony Davis T Shoulder Limited Participation Questionable
Patrick Willis LB Groin Did Not Participate Questionable

Most concerning of course is the status of our linebackers. Willis is most likely out. Bowman looks to play, but I hope he’s at close to full strength. Frankly, Goodwin being out could be a blessing as he’s been part of the problems with the pressure coming up the middle. I wouldn’t mind seeing how Kilgore Trout handles himself at center. VD practiced, but again, he’ll be a game-time decision.

The things to watch for are obvious. Dallas ran all over these guys last week, so the Niners look to get Gore rolling. If Gore and co. can rattle off some big runs, the hope is the coaches can scheme up some effective pass plays. TE over the middle for example. Dallas carved up the Rams mid-range defense for a ton of yards as well. The Rams run game is non-existent without Stephen Jackson, and if the Rams make any noise on the ground, it’ll bode badly for the defense as their passing game is putting up good numbers.

All in all a ginormous game for the 49ers. The coaching staff has to do some major adjusting to how teams are now playing them. The passing offense is doing nothing at this point. They either need to scheme things differently to get guys open quicker (slants, screens), or actually USE their WRs in the 3-5 WR packages. Defenses are getting all 11 guys on or near the line to jam everything up at times. REACT! There is little to no route adjusting by the WRs. No hot reads. Or they are jammed. The run game has been abandoned too early in the last 2 games. The Niners beat a pretty banged-up Green Bay secondary, but they stopped our run game at the cost of everything else. Defensively, the pass rush has been vastly underwhelming, and curiosuly enough, the run defense has been terrible. But this is a case of Seattle and Indy going to the run late in their games when the defense was on the field all the 2nd half. The Niners need to generate a pass rush somehow. Especially against the Rams. We will likely be nickel most of the game, so draw up some blitzes. Hit Bradford early and often. Play up to your capabilities.

Gut-check, reality check, or whatever body part check you want to call it, they can’t afford to go 1-3 and expect to realistically have a shot at the division.

Well, here we are, already at the short week of the season. This couldn’t come at a worse time for the 49ers, but then again St Louis isn’t really rattling any windows with their season so far. They themselves are 1-2 after a close win over AZ, and 2 quick losses on the road to Atl and Dallas. I’m beyond weirded out by this 49er season so far and this game has all the look of being an abject disaster. The team looks utterly lost on offense and the defense cannot get off the field fast enough or stay off the field long enough. The offense cannot gain any consistency with the failure of these last 2 games to adjust to teams daring us to throw while the run game struggles. The Rams run game is basically nil, while their passing game is middle-of-the-pack. The Niners of course, after their epic start have cratered to 27th in total offense, 19th in rushing, 23rd in passing. On the defensive side, the Niners are 12th in yards given up. Especially galling is the fact that the Niners are 29th in rushing yards allowed.

So, the team that prides itself on running and stopping the run has done neither this season. And this leads to the multitude of problems that this team is having. Since the Niners can’t (or won’t) run, teams are teeing off and blitzing fairly regularly. The pressure is coming right up the gut. Whether due to Goodwin turning into a revolving door, or the Niners are simply trying to constantly block 8 with 7, Kappy is under pressure most every pass. Given the fact that the Niners still haven’t decided to give Kappy quicker passing plays to implement, or use the running game past the 2nd quarter, AND the fact that the WRs aren’t really helping things along, you have a recipe for the defense being on the field way too long. To the tune of -15:00 in both the Seattle and Indy games. One epic drive last weekend was a grand total of 12 seconds on three straight incompletions. Galling besides was the fact that the Niners gave up on the run after Gore gained 71 yards on one drive in the 1st quarter. Shades of Mad Mike Martz. Without those pesky TDs.

So, I’m at a loss to even wonder how this game goes. I have 0 confidence in the team right now. They don;t seem to know how to get out of their own way.

I heard Harbaugh talking on 107.7 this morning, and he says it’s gut check time. We need to see how the team handles adversity. That’s all well and good, Jim, but I’d really like to see how the coaches game plan differently to overcome the problems. laying this out as an execution problem is disingenuous at best. Harbaugh needs to make adjustments to protect his QB and to save his defense. If not, the whole season may unravel rather quickly. In other words, the curse of year 3. The last couple coaches (not named Tomsula) both met their fate when their 3rd seasons cratered.

Well, statistically speaking, about 25 teams. What I thought was a mere blip on the road to the playoffs last week in Seattle turns out to be something a little bit more foreboding. The 49ers pretty much followed the same script of doing little on offense, and leaning on the defense all day to keep the score close. The D did it’s job until, much like Seattle, eventually wore down as the offense couldn’t do anything until garbage time.

When the 3rd quarter started, the Niners were down 10-7. The Niners gained 19 yards on 3 runs, a pass, and a sack, and punted. That drive took 2:58. Indy got the ball and drove 53 yards, burned 5:03, and kicked a FG. At this point, the Niners were still one score from taking the lead, 13-7. They had a promising drive going when Kappy took a 5 yard loss on a read option that was completely blown up by Freeman of the Colts. A short run and short pass later, we punt. Indy then burns ~6 minutes to miss a FG. Still within reach. The next drive is a beaut. Incomplete pass. 4 yard pass. Sack. The Niners give the defense a whopping 1:19 to rest.

At this point, the Colts have been on offense for roughly 12 minutes to the 49ers 6. Indy then burns ~8 minutes to ice the game with a TD to go up 20-7 with 4:27 left. Of course then next drive was a fumble on the 8 that Indy recovered. Set up by another inexplicable return by Kendall Hunter. Between Hunter returning kickoffs to the 12 and KW fair catching balls inside the 10, the Niners had shitty field position all day. And when they didn’t they still blew their opportunities.

Still and all, a galling effort by the offense. The D isn’t generating much of a pass rush these days, but they did their job as well as they could given the ineptitude of the offense. The run D, a usual strength, has been gashed for a lot of 8-12 yard runs. Justin Smith does not command the double teams he used to, and the LBs aren’t nearly as clean as they used to be in pursuit. This leads to play action freezing the LBs and loosening the coverage downfield. Offensively, the WRs re never able to get open, while the line, our supposed strength, has done an awful job of pass protection. Mainly at the center position. Goodwin has been beaten regularly, and Kappy is forced to run. Usually to the left, as Staley is holding up better than Davis. This makes is near impossible to throw on the run. Speaking of run, the run game had been abandoned too quickly in my mind as well. All this leads to an anemic offensive attack that is making Jimmy-Hat look like Air Coryell.

The great news is we have a roadie in St Louis Thursday night. A loss there would put the 49ers 0-2 in the division, and possibly 3 games behind the Seahawks. They have a roadie of their own in Houston. Seattle is fair to middling on the road, but they certainly look about 80% better than we do at this point.

At least it is for Jim Harbaugh and Andrew Luck. The last time they were together, it was for the Jan 2011 Tostitos Bowl or something like that. Now? Indy is a little shakey from a near loss to the Raiders on opening day, and a loss to the not-so-lowly-anymore 2-0 Miami Dolphins. They got themselves in the news this week by trading next year’s 1st round pick to the Cleveland Browns for Trent Richardson, a guy they traded up in the 1st rouns to the #3 overall pick to get last year. In other words, a very cursious move as it smacks of giving up on this season for the Brownies. This after week 2. Lots of disgruntled fans by Lake Erie. The Niners got themselves into the news as well. But for much more awful reasons. Defensive standout Aldon Smith was busted trying to run over a tree at 7:00 am Friday morning. He was booked on DUI, pot possession, and possession of prescription meds of some kind. This is part of a pattern of brushes with the law, including a pleaded down DUI in Miami, being a passenger in a roll-over accident at the bewitching hour of 2:30 am, and his infamous house party where he got stabbed, and he allegedly shot at someone.

Youthful hijinks? Sure, you could say that, and there have been plenty of people who have had a few scrapes with the law only to go on and get their shit together and move on. On the other hand, life is riddled with talented individuals who can’t get out of their own way, and either hurt themselves or people around them. The 49ers meanwhile have chose the path of least resistance. Jim Harbaugh has said that Smith will suit up and play today. Curious, as when Demarcus Dobbs was busted for pot last year, the team left him at home for a road game. They suspended Brandon Jacobs for the last 4 games of the season for posting pics of himself in his Giants uni.

What’s the difference between Dobbs, Jacobs, and Smith? Well, Smith is an MVP-worthy talent. The others? Not so much. The 49ers can choose to be proactive regarding this, and leave him off the roster today. Or they can put Smith above his teammates, and start him. The point being, regardless of his status as an elite player, the front office and the coaches need to remind Aldon that playing football is a privilege. Yes, it is a privilege he has earned the right to play, but recent events tell another story. Taken separately, one of these screw-ups isn’t a major deal. But throw them together and you have a pattern of behavior that is troubling at best. Self-destructive at worst.

Yes, the 49ers desperately want to erase the taste of that Seattle beat-down. and yes, this is the NFL, where wins are a hard-fought commodity that takes a team effort to earn. But the team needs to show Aldon that there are consequences for screwing up, and he has to take a look at his actions as ones that are causing harm to himself and those close to him, andf that he isn’t bigger than the team. Otherwise, letting him start shows the rest of the team that as long as you are a great player, you don;t have to follow the rules that the rest of the guys must.

Despite the itching desire to blow up the offense and go Mouse Davis, the 49ers season rolls on. This looked like a tough game when the season started, but Indy has been fairly underwhelming so far this season. Ekeing out a near disastrous loss vs the Raiders in their back yard, and losing to a Miami team that isn’t scaring anyone. What does that mean for the Niners? Well, nothing much. The Niners, who have an annoying habit of looking stupidly horrible every once in a while, look to get back on track in their home-sludge advantage park, the Stick.

I’m fairly sure the Niners can beat a team that has to travel this far, who isn’t all that good, other than their QB, Jim Harbaugh’s buddy Andrew Luck, and who have their usual chip on their shoulder after the soul-crushing loss in Seattle. Should a lot be read into the Seattle loss? The Niners were beaten like a drum there last year, and were crushed and worn down again this last week. Granted, it’s hard to play in that environment, and their home winning streak is littered with playoff teams, including Green Bay, Minnesota, New England, and of course, us, so it’s not like this is a fluke streak against shitty opponents.

So, no. There’s no need to jettison this offense in favor of going crazy in the air. That being said, I still would like to see Harbaugh rotate out of this read-option/diamond formation offense. I would much rather see multiple WR formations and us running out of passing formations, whether the pistol, shotgun, or behind center. If the scenario ends up where we see Seattle in the playoffs, then we’ll figure out how to deal with it. But chances are the 49ers won’t see Seattle until next season.

Wow. One measly little loss and the bandwagon is in flames in a ditch with two broken axles. Granted, it was about as ugly as it gets, but this is the NFL, where a team like Miami can beat last year’s darlings, the Indy Colts. Or San Diego can finally hold a 4th quarter lead after 8 years of trying. Be that as it may, the niners travelled to the Great White Northwest to take on the rain and the Seahawks. Was it ugly? Was it the worst performance of Young Colin Kaepernick’s career? Were the 49ers outcoached? Out hustled? Outschemed? Overmatched? Scared of the lightning? Yes to all of the above. Much like the GB game, Seattle’s defense stuffed the run. They did it by loading the box with 8-9 guys and daring us to throw. Unfortunately, unlike Green Bay, the Seattle DBs neutralized the passing game. Anquan Boldin went from penthouse to outhouse. 217 yards to 7. The Niners defense did finally hold Marshawn Lynch to under 100 yards, but it hardly mattered. The effectiveness of the defense was obliterated by the colossal ineptitude of the offense. For all the hooraw around this game and the resulting bandwagon leapers, the defense held Seattle to 12 points through 3 quarters. Hardly an insurmountable deficit. The Niners even had a blocked punt.

I could go into the abject failure of the offense (lousy blocking, lousy scheme, bad passing, no run game, etc), and the ease at which Seattle put the game away late, but we all saw the fugliness unfold in gory detail last night. Is this the end of the Super Bowl run? Are we now second fiddle in our own division? This very well may be the case, but then again, minus a DeAngelo Williams fumble last week, Seattle loses. It’s week 2 folks. There’s a lot of football left to be played. Is there reason to worry? Oh yeah. The line play on both sides was shockingly poor. And the refs were absolutely on glue with some of the calls. Nnami Asomugha was called for shielding when he was BEHIND the WR going for the tip. Aldon Smith’s penalty for tapping someone’s helmet was equally ridiculous. But the results speak for themselves. The Niners again looked woefully unprepared for the game. But the deal was, much like the Green Bay game, this was Seattle’s Super Bowl. This was the biggest game in Seattle in years. They played fast and loose. The Niners were tight and reactionary.

So, is Seattle Kappy’s kryptonite? Jim Harbaugh is 3-2 vs his nemesis Pete Carroll, but all 3 of the wins came with Alex Smith at QB. Kappy is 0-2 now. Speaking of Kappy, he looked VERY tentative yesterday. Gone were the slashing runs and accurate passes he’s shown. He was off target all night, which induced 3 picks. The 1st especially galling as the Niners had blocked a punt, and had great field position. He tried to stuff a pass to VD in double coverage. It might have worked if it was on target, but it wasn’t. The deep ball to VD was also badly underthrown. The 3rd pick was flat awful. Don’t know where that was going. His running was tentative as well. He seemed to wait too long in the pocket as the WRs failed to get open, and ended up sacked. The line blocking didn’t do much, but even when Kappy had time, he missed open targets. And Bruce Miller had about as bad a day as possible. Getting called for holding in the end zone for a safety, and dropping a TD pass before the first pick.

So what to gather from this? Mainly the fact that the Niners don’t play well in the Seattle rain, and they need to pay some serious attention to the line play and work on getting the WRs involved in the game plan. The harbinger of the overmatched wideouts getting shut down came to be, and Harbaugh’s idea of going to Miller out of the backdfield, while a good idea, in the end didn’t work. Despite the blowout, the defense played well enough to win. The offense did nothing to keep them off the field. 37:00 to 23:00 in time-of-possession is atrocious.

Crazy game tonight, eh? Catching some shit for predicting a Seattle win, but at this point, anything can happen. Seattle looked like shit on the road last week, and won by 6. The Niner offense looked nigh unstoppable in the air at home last week. And won by 6. The difference was the Niners played a very talented Green Bay team, while the Hawks played the lowly Carolina Panthers. What does it mean? Nothing. The She-Hawks (coined by Anthony Dixon, among others) always play well at home, and they are trying to break the world record for loudest crowd noise, something held by some Iranian soccer game at 131 db or some shit. The hope is the Guinness folks check for illegal amplification, as is thought by some around here.

So, are the Hawks the latest flash in the pan? Early indications certainly can be read that way. But this is a game that Pete ‘what’s-your-deal’ Carroll has circled on his calendar. He’s always jacked up for a Harbaugh game. But so has St. Jimmy Harbaugh. Jim of course had to endure a humiliating 72-3 defeat last year. Forgive me for not wanting to recall that score, but it was ugly. I’ve gone over the circumstances around that already, and why the Niners were out of sorts that night, but that’s the past. The Niners moved on and nearly won it all while Seattle failed in the playoffs. If anyone has an axe to grind, it’s St. Jimmy for getting thumped last year.

As far as statement games go, well, Seattle certainly has a lot more to lose than the Niners. If they lose to the 49ers at home after a major struggle against Carol, then yeah, there will be talk of the Hawks not quite being ready for prime time. If Seattle wins a tough battle, then the Niners will be hurting a bit, but the loss is one that is somewhat expected due to the Hawks huge homefield advantage. If the Hawks wipe out the Niners again, then Harbaugh will be the one suddenly on the defensive regarding how his team matches up with their NFC West rivals.

Besides, Kappy has yet to beat the Hawks. Alex Smith got the win last year, and Russell Wilson had a fairly pedestrian night. Smith has since left, and Wilson has exploded since that 13-6 Niner win last October.