Forty Niners Forever

For you Gene Vincent fans. . . .

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TpX4g7-dpM

Here we are in week 2 of the 2013 playoffs. Again, the Niners are the faves on the road. I understood that for the 8-7-1 Packers, but not quite the Panthers. They are the 2 seed coming off an 11-1 streak after starting slow at 1-3 and calls for Ron Rivera’s head. After 4 wins over some non-descript competition, they rolled into SF and beat us 10-9. A validation of their win streak. Which they followed up with a home win over New England. They overtook New Orleans to win the NFC South. They are a strong defensive team with a young, dynamic QB.

Sound familiar? Yeah, kinda like the 49ers.  This game looks to be a clash of the new-age NFL QBs. Big fast mobile QBs with big arms and dangerous legs. Their numbers are comparable, their records are identical, and their defenses are equally stingy. And Cam beat us. So, why do I think the 49ers will win? Mainly because when the 49ers played the Panthers, we nearly won the game despite missing many of our best players. Crabtree was still MIA, Aldon Smith was just back and rusty from rehab, Eric Reid and Vernon Davis were knocked out with concussions, and the team was struggling with every aspect of the offense. Mike Iupati and Joe Staley were dinged up, and Colin Kaepernick had his worst game as a pro, and I think they Niners abandoned the run to ill effect.

All that being said, the Niners were close. The troubling aspects of that game was the pressure Carolina got on Kappy with their base 4 man rush. They didn’t do much blitzing but still got 6 sacks. Gore had a good game, gaining 82 yards,  but, again, the play calling went away from the run, and all the Niner drives stalled in the 2nd half.

Anyhow, this looks to be another defensive struggle, minus the minus degree weather of Green Bay. Forecast for Charlotte, NC is 59º, light winds, and a 30% chance of rain. Again though, this is the playoffs. Mistakes are verboten. Frowned upon. And usually taken advantage of. The Niners had Green Bay held to 6 yards until the Kappy interception woke them up and they drove to a touchdown and an early lead. Point being, points will be hard to come by, and turrnovers can kill. Protect the ball. Contain Fig Newton, and force known fumbler DeAngelo Williams into a couple cough-ups and all should work out fine.

24-14 Niners.

In a thrilling see-saw battle in the frozen dirt of Lambeau Field, the 49ers pulled out a taut and exciting game as Phil Dawson put the finishing touches on a 23-20 victory with a 33 yard FG that magically went BETWEEN the outstretched arms of would be Packer savior Devon House. Strangely enough, there WAS an offisdes penalty called on him that was neither discussed or shown during the broadcast.

Either way, a game that will become part of the NFL lore if not for the weather, but another example of the recent history of the Niners having the Packers number. For the 2nd straight year, the Niners opened the season with a victory over Green Bay, and for the 2nd year in a row, the Niners ended Green Bay’s playoff hopes. For all the talk of the Pack being a weak playoff team this year, and them backing in at 8-7-1, Aaron Rodgers put that to rest with some inspired play. He constantly escaped pressure. Most notably on a 4th and 2 play where he escaped the grasp of Ray McDonald (and a major hold on the play), and completed a 26 yard pass to continue their last TD drive. Eddie Lacy also had a big game as he rushed for 88 yards and did his best impression of Marshawn Lynch.

Pack Killer Colin Kaepernick (he must haunt their dreams) threw and ran his way to more than 300 yards of total offense. Michael Crabtree had a game for the ages as Green Bay once again overracted to the previous game. In Kappy’s 1st Green Bay game, he slashed them for over 180 yards on the ground. Game 2 saw Green Bay focus solely on containing Kappy, who then torched them for over 400 yards in the air with new weapon Anquan Boldin. Green Bay response was to then bracket Boldin all night. This left Crabs in single coverage most of the time. He merely had 8 catches for 125, and an absolute game saver on 3rd and 10 on the final drive. Kappy was flushed from the pocket, and rolling left, threw a dart that was just barely in reach of Crabs. He grabbed it for a 17 yard gain, and a 1st down. He also hit Crabs on a 30 yard pass on the opening drive, which led to a field goal (among a lot of non-PI calls).

So, instead of the Niners going big on the ground, or going big in the air, they did enough of both to beat the Pack. Gore was ‘held’ to 66 yards, but his contributions were huge. His 10 yard scoring run erased a 7-6 Packer lead, and his final drive carries for 15 yards don’t sound impressive, but he got a huge 1st down on 3rd and 3 to allow the draining of the clock.  Kappy of course had 98 yards on the ground, and a beautiful 28 yard strike to VD in the 4th quarter to erase another Packer lead.

The FG is NUTS. Check this out:

On to Carolina!

Well, those were some crazy ass games today. Alex Smith matches Andrew Luck TD for TD, throws no picks to Luck’s 3, and still KC loses 45-44 after Smith and Co built up a 38-10 lead minutes into the 2nd half. Philly and NO played a more defensive battle in the cold, and NO wins their historic first road playoff win hitting the game-winning FG as time ran out 26-24.  Again, the winning QB was the one throwing picks as Foles had none, and Brees had 2. NO brought something they haven’t shown too much of, and that’s a strong run game. Something KC could have used, but lost early with Jamaal Charles leaving after the 1st series,  and the backup RB Knile Davis also going out in the 3rd quarter.

The good news for me, besides the entertainment factor of these games was the fact that the refs were for the most part in the background. There were no blown calls, and there were no game-changing mistakes from the guys in the stripes.

So, here we go. We are the last playoff game, and I think this is another exciting nail-biter. However, I think we can wear down Green Bay’s banged up defense and win this going away. 31-20 in the cold cold cold is still my call.

Despite Dennis’s fear of the Super Bowl loser not reaching the playoffs, the Niners have made it back to the post season. Unfortunately for Balt. (like I predicted), the defending champs were the ones left in the cold. So, without further ado, let’s take our wild-ass guesses as to who moves on in the playoffs.

The games are:

Saturday:

• Chiefs (11-5) @ Colts (11-5) – 1:35 pm
• Saints (11-5) @ Eagles (10-6) – 5:35 pm

Sunday:

• Chargers (9-7) @ Bengals (11-5) – 10:05 am
• 49ers (12-4) @ Packers (8-7-1) – 1:40 PM

The Chiefs and Colts looks to be a great game. Besides the harbinger of watching Young Sir Alex lead the vastly improved Chiefs to the playoffs, he’s matched up with Andrew Luck, young gunslinger extraordinaire. I think Alex and Co. pull this one out.
Chiefs 28 – Colts 24.

The late game? Chip Kelly and his high-strung offense? Nick Foles and his unholy numbers (2,900 yards, 27 TDs, 2 picks in 11 games)? I think they take the Saints easily as the Saints don’t play well out of doors.
Iggles 35 – Saints 20.

Chargers/Bengals looks like a good one as well. Philip Rivers seems to have overcome his int-itis from lasr year, and caught fire just in time this season. For being in the supposedly weak AFC West, they put 3 teams in the playoffs, and Rivers just may be the hottest guy. Cincy always blows it in the playoffs, and I see no difference here.
San Dawg 31 – Cincy 17.

Then there’s the jewel of the playoffs. Niners and Packers. The Frozen Tundra. These teams have quite a playoff history, but the balance of power has shifted to the Red and Gold.
49ers 31 – Pack 20.

What do you all think?

The closer we get to game time, the lower the tmperature will BE at game time, according to the prognosticators. As of now, the high is projected to be 7º, with a low of -20º as the night goes on. Which is why there are still over 6,000 tickets available for the game. Hmmm. Catch a flight to Green Bay? Maybe not. One would think this would be an advantage to the Packers, but to me this doesn’t really matter. Both sides play in the weather, and both teams are affected by it. Besides, our young QB played all his games in Reno, and the weather for the games he played in college was in places like Boise, Oregon, and Washington. Pretty much wintry conditions. And, he practiced outdoors in Reno, so the day-to-day aspect of his game was in weather.

In other words, the weather will play a factor, but I think it favors the Niners more than the Packers. The Niners have a stronger run game and can stop the run better than Green Bay, so we should be able to force GB into mistakes through the air by getting pressure on Aaron Rodgers. Of course forcing GB to pass might be considered playing to their strength, but letting them grind out the game wouldn’t be wise either. Stuff their run and take away the short passes. Clog up the underneath and take your chances on the deep passes in the crap weather.

Haven’t heard any more news on Carlos Rogers, but I’d think nursing a bad hammy in -10º weather wouldn’t seem to be a good idea. He’s likely not playing.

In keeping with The Who theme, it is onward and upward to the Frozen Tundra. The field that Curly built. Lambeau Field. In the great white you-betcha! At some point in my life I’d love to go see a game there, but anyhow, the Forty Niners are going back to Green Bay for their latest edition of Beat the Pack.

Beyond the fact that the Niners are being penalized for playing in a strong division, and the Packers are rewarded for playing in a shitty one, winning in Lambeau is always a challenge. In what has been a one-sided affair recently, the Niners are 3-0, including the last 2 seasons’ opening day wins (one here, one at Lambeau) and the playoff win early this year. Before that? Well, 1-13 between 1996 and 2010. One of course being the Owens Owens Owens game. The teams split the rest as they alternated between being dominant (GB in the 60s, Niners in the 80s) to doormats (GB in the 70s, Niners in the 60s). Overall GB leads 34-29. Time to get #30.

Truth be told, Green Bay shouldn’t even be here. Deetroit had a clear shot to the NFC North, as did Chicago. Both failed miserably. Meanwhile Green Bay staggered through their game without Aaron Rodgers, and got him back just in time to win the decider last weekend with the Bears, who went 3-5 to close the season. GB meanwhile went 2-5-1 without Rodgers, and Deetroi famously went 2-6 to blow the division. So, blame Jim Schwartz for the fact that we are playing outside this Sunday.

About the game. Well, I hope this one will be easier than the last couple. Green Bay does not scare me at all on defense. Sister Golden Hair is out with a thumb (!) injury, and they stop neither the run or the pass very well. The Niners famously ran all over them in the playoffs last year, and alternated that by passing all over them opening day. Green Bay’s strength used to be creasting turnovers, but this year they are -3.

The only new wrinkle that Green Bay has is on offense. That is rookie phenom RB, Eddie Lacy. He of the 1200 yards rushing, and 4.1 average. Aaron Rodgers of course is Aaron Rodgers. So the Niners need to do a better job of getting pressure on him. I’m hoping these last 2 games for the Niners were attempts to try different schemes regarding pressure. If not, we are in trouble. Atlanta and AZ have both been notoriously bad at protecting their QBs, yet the Niners generated 2 sacks on 98 passing attempts. This cannot happen with Rodgers no matter the weather.

The Niners of course stop the run well, and their pass defense has been great all year. But as noted, their most recent games they have been torched through the air. They didn’t give up a 300 yard game since game 1 and Aaron, but gave up 341 and 399 to Ryan and Palmer respectively. Palmer!

The good news is we seem to match up well with Green Bay with our base defense. The Niners only got 2 sacks in week 1 but Rodgers was harassed all game, and completed 56% of his passes. Kappy on the other had went for 70%. I don;t thin the game goes like the early game this year. I think the Niners can wear down Green Bay’s defense, and keep Rodgers from going too crazy. I’m thinking something like 31-20.

Well, the pink slips are starting to fly out of team HQs around the country. Cleveland beat the holiday rush and fired Cannibalistic Humanoid Underground Dweller Greg Chudzinski yesterday, presumably to protect others in the organization from being dragged into the Cleveland sewers and eaten alive. The next ex-coach will be hired any minute now.

No surprise to anyone, Mike Shanahan and his entire staff were jettisoned by Daniel Snyder and his band of renown. I feel bad for RG III as this revolving door of coaches and FO staff will start spinning at breakneck speed for the next few years while the team that shall not be named out loud continues on its merry way to mediocrity.

Leslie Neilson Frazier is out in Minnesota despite their playoff appearance last year, and the return of AP. His struggle was just figuring out who to play at QB, Ponder battled injuries, Cassell played well some of the time (and awful at other times), and Josh Freeman (urk) pretty much puked on his shoes every chance he got. Revolving QBs rarely works, and it failed miserably in Minnesota. Plus the defense went south big time in a division that was soft to say the least.

May the Schwartz be with you won’t be with Deetroit anymore. He guided a very solid team to very underwhelming results during his tenure in Ford City. Although he did take over a 0-16 team, they certainly didn’t get enough out of their offensive weapons, and their defense, while tough, shoots itself in the feet regularly with dumb penalties and mental lapses. The Lions collapse was especially gruesome as they had the division lead at 6-3 after beating the Bears in Chi-town and having a relatively easy schedule to close out the season. They summarily lost 6 of their last 7, including losses to the Vikes, the Bucs, the Giants, and the Ravens. That’s some serious suckage.

Perennial schoolyard bully Greg Schiano was kicked to the curb in Tampa like the drity dog he is, along with his GM Mark Dominick. They started under the curse of Josh Freeman, cut him, and flailed around looking for a QB while the staggering losses piled up. Mike Glennon actually emerged from the Tampa Bay muck to look fairly decent. After going 0-8 to start the year, TB won 4 of 5, but closed the year losing their last 4.

The Texans, of course, fired their HC Gary Kubiak 3 weeks after collapsing on the field after suffering a stroke during a game vs Indy. “how ya feeling, coach?” “Good. Getting better.” ” Oh, by the way, you’re fired!”

And so it goes. By the time today ends, I’m sure there will be a few more (Dennis Allen? Mike Munchak? Tom not-so-Terrific Coughlin?) Perennial moron Jerry Jones is sticking with (for now) Jason Garrett as his sock puppett, uh head coach, although he did get rid of Lane Kiffin’s dad the full Monty as the Dallas DC. Frankly, since they are local, but I still don;t give much of a rat’s ass, I think the Raiders should stick with Dennis Allen. They are desperately in need of SOME continuity, and with Dirty Al gone, Prince Valiant must try to engender some team unity as they dig themselves out from re-un-dead Al’s pit of contract and draft choice hell.

So, who’s next?

For the only week of the year, all of the NFL games are scheduled for Sunday. And if there ever was a week to have 16 TVs to watch all the games, this would be it. In the NFC at least, just about all the playoff spots are in a state if flux, and the idea to make the last weekend all divisional games had paid off in spades. The NFC East and NFC North have play-in games as Dallas, minus Tony Romo, squares off with Philly, and Chicago faces Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers at Soldier Field. Carolina, Seattle, and the 49ers all have a shot at getting the 1 seed. AFC? Ehhh. Don’t care at this point. Brady and Manning look to meet again if the script follows the pattern. Indy and Cincy might have something to say about it, but I doubt it. KC? Alex Smith? One would think the AFC wildcards are a quick exit. We’ll see. The combo of Miami or Balt don’t scare anyone either. The NFC? Well, whoever the wildcards are look to beat the North and East champs handily.

Anyhow, back to AZ. They started badly, but have re-inserted themselves back into the playoff race by winning 7 of their last 8, including a beat-down of the Colts, and most recently a fairly stunning road win over Seattle in the house that noise built. AZ is throwing the ball a ton, and is overcoming the 21 picks by Carson Palmer simply by throwing more. As evidenced by their win over Seattle where Palmer threw 4 picks and still won. Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd lead the way. Both are close to 1,000 yards, and both account for nearly all of their TDs in the air. Defensively AZ is fast and tough. They have the # 1 rush defense in the league and are 6th overall in yards per game given up. LBs Karlos Dansby and John Abraham are leading a group that has improved as the season has rolled on.

All that being said. I think AZ has been playing for their lives for a long time. Running on adrenaline too long, and will come back to Earth. Niners win 28-20. I also think the Rams manage to contain Russell Wilson and take Seattle at home. 2 seed and the bye. Book it.

. . . is clear as mud, so there’s little reason to plan ahead. In the NFC, every game has some sort of playoff implication. In a bit of scheduling mastery, Dallas and Philly meet to determine the winner of the NFC East (the east sucks, but Philly’s coming on), and Green Bay and Chicago meet to determine the winner of the NFC North (speaking of suck…). Other than that, the NFC West is still up for grabs as Seattle has choked their shot at clinching these past few games, and the Niners have kept up the pace. The Niners face AZ on the road, always a tough deal as they are fighting for their playoff lives, and Seattle faces the semi-upstart Rams, who themselves have flip-flopped between great and awful. The scheduling Gods also start these games at the same time, so there will be major scoreboard-watching going on.

Carolina and Nawlins are still fighting for the NFC East, and NO seems to have an advantage playing TB at home. NO wins the division due to a better division record. Carolina is playing a pissed off Stlanta team that was 70 seconds from a hard-fought road win over the 49ers, only to see it evaporate in a final piece of Candlestick magic.

The Niners are the 1 seed if we win, Sea loses, and Carolina loses. We’d be 2 if we win, and Sea loses. If Sea wins and NO loses, we are the 5. If we lose, and NO AND Carolina win, we are the 6. AZ needs the most help, but if they win and Nawlins loses, then AZ is the 6th seed. The Niners would be the 5 based on a better division record than AZ.

Clear as mud, eh?