Forty Niners Forever

Gee, ol’ Jimmy looks like he wants to step in a pile of shit again as he says he’s ‘disappointed’ about Vernon Davis and Alex Boone not coming to the madatories. He said “(It’s) not the decision that I envisioned being the 49er way.” Beyond the fact that Aldon Smith and Chris Culliver would not appear to be following that path either, what’s your point, Jim? The path of the righteous is beset by many pitfalls? Besides, ’49er Way’ is the path from the locker room to the practice field, so let’s count how many others missed travelling 49er Way.

Stevie (Wonder) Johnson has a sore hammy and missed practice, Michael Crabtree is trying to stay off his feet as much as possible for fear of using and damaging them. If he could walk on his hands, I’m sure he would. Frank Gore, Juston Smith, and Grand Theft Auto V star Chris Culliver also sat out the practice as they are apparently too valuable to trot out there and risk getting turf toe or grass stains.

Which is why it seems pretty stupid for VD and Rhino to even hold out of these. To piss away what amounts to a year’s salary for most of us regluar folks (shit, VD has already snubbed $270,000, certainly not my tax bracket) just to make a point seems ludicrous at best when you can claim injury and hang out in the hot tub.

But who am I to quibble about the myriad ways athletes can be stupid, vain, clueless, and obtuse? Football is a brutal sport that leaves broken bodies and spirits in its wake as the juggernaut rolls along. So, the impetus is to get what you can when you can. In VD’s case though, the 49ers HAVE given him just about everything possibe. He sighed a 5 year/$23 mill deal in 2006. After 4 years of that (or $18.4 mill), he got his 5 year/$37 mill deal. So, to date he’s received about $46 million from the team for services rendered. Yes, it was a front-loaded deal. Yes, he’s one of the top TEs in the game.

No, VD doesn’t ‘deserve’ an extension. Why? Because HE signed the deal. He was PAID as one of the highest TEs coming out of college, and after his scuffling through an injury-riddled seasons highlighted by fights with his own teammates and a ton of stupid penalties, he got his shit together (Sing) and got his 1st extension, which made him the highest paid TE AGAIN. Play out this year, then maybe we’ll talk. Problem is, VD KNOWS that Crabs is up for review. He of the 6 game holdout to start HIS career. He’s trying to make bank before Crabs does. Frankly, at this point I could see them both gone after this season.

Regardless of how well VD has done (and he has done very well these past few seasons), VD has little leverage here. The Niners have enough at the WR spot to cover for VD should he hold out further. I seriously doubt he misses any real training camp, but if so, I really would start lining up trade partners. If he’s so self-absorbed to put himself in front of the team again, then he should go.

Hey, I don’t know. Slow times call for desperate measures?

Anyhow. here’s what I wrote on the last thread. Before what I just read on BleacherReport regarding GMs and their recent activities. So, I’ll post what I wrote followed by a link to what the wonks at BR reported. They sort of line up in some cases, but in others they don’t. In other words, I don’t know as much as I think I do. But hey, it could work out how I think anyway.
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Aside from the Giants playing good baseball, the football news is pretty much few and far-between. VD says he’ll show up for mandatories, while Alex Boone says he won’t. Boone doesn’t stand to lose as much as VD, and VD looks pretty stupid in the first place, seeing as he’s still in the top 3 TEs salary-wise. Boone has been a stalwart wherever asked to play, and has been among the better guards out there, but he won’t lose near as much as VD would have skipping mandatories. Then again, he don’t make as much either. Jonathan Martin has overcome his bout of the kissing disease (he been hanging with Mike Sam?) and looks to fill the spot of swing guard should the Niners go to the wall with Boone.

In other news, the Seahawks are dealing with their own holdout issue with Marshawn Lynch. He’s been very vocal about wanting a new deal, even though he was just renegotiated a couple years ago. He’s said he’d consider retirement, or in the least, skip the mandatories. With Lynch, you never truly know. The dude is an enigma to say the least. As of now, he’s working out in Oaktown considering his options. If it hurts Seattle’s chances, I’m all for it.

Other than that? I got nuthin’. NBA Finals? Weird to say the least to see Le Bron playing with so little passion. Granted, his teammates did llittle as well, but he’s the spark.

Hockey? Please. The Lakings are going to win again? Yup. The hottest of hockey towns is Los Angeles. They’ll throw a victory parade, and no one will know. Or care.

Well, benevolent or not, the 49ers have their man at QB for the next seven years. Or not, but you know what I mean. Colin Kaepernick is signed , rested, and ready to take it to the next level. The next guys who appears to be in the running for  new contracts are Michael Crabtree, Mike Iupati, Jim Harbaugh, and (in his mind anyway) Vernon Davis.

Crabs? He’s a good solid possession WR. Nothing more. Does Kappy want him back? Absolutely. Will the FO oblige? Well, let’s saee the numbers he wants. 5/$40 is what I think he should get. He does not deserve Brandon Marshall money ($10 mill a year). He doesn’t like it? Adios. And take VD with you. It turns out, VD wanted an extension LAST year. How about you honor the deal you signed, skippy? You are still the 2nd highest paid TE in the league. No need to throw a hissy fit. Iupati? Sure, provided he’s recovered from his ankle injury.

Which brings us to Coach Harbaugh.  Jim Harbaugh is a great coach. But here is my dilemma. He was out-coached by his brother in the Super Bowl.  He was out-coached by Pete Carroll in the NFC Championship game. There are times when the 49ers can’t seem to get out of their own way. The offense has a propensity to stutter and stall for long stretches of time. We’ve all beaten the notion to death that the offense needs to take more risks and be more explosive. Not Mouse Davis explosive, but something along the lines of a 2010 offense rather than a 1910 offense. Telling is the fact that Harbaugh has spoken directly to the things that have annoyed me for years.

• Play clock mangement
• Simplistic 1-2 WR formations on 1st and 2nd downs.
• Little to no play-action (except on 3rd and 15)
• No screen or slants

Harbaugh has said that maybe he should think about putting in more WRs on 1st and 2nd down. Huzzah! He also said that play clock management is an issue that needs to be fixed. Great. However, the proof is in the pudding. Harbaugh KNOWS that this is his year to deliver. Which is why I don’t sign him to his motherlode of a deal before this season. Harbaugh is in the same boat as VD. He’s too far away from the end of his current deal to worry about writing a new one.

Bring home the bacon and you’ll get your stairway Fat City. Come up short, and we’ll see what the future holds. Yes, Harbaugh is worlds better than what we had for the last 12 years, but do we want to hitch our wagon to a coach that can’t win the big one? If he goes into his 5th season as the almost-made-it guy, the window on the team’s success will start inexorably closing and it may not be feasible to re-up the guy.

I’m not 100% behind his future being determined by Super Bowl or Hit the Road, Jim, but at some point when does Harbaugh catch the heat for the team not making it all the way? The Niners should have beaten the shit out of Balt, but let them (and Atl) build huge leads early and they scrambled for their lives in both games. The Seattle game was a hard-fought battle, but in the end, Carroll won.

As was spoken about Don Shula, he could beat your team with his team, and he could beat his team with your team. And that’s what the deal is between Harbaugh and Carroll. Carroll is the better coach at this point. This season appears to be a major barn-burner what with the new stadium, major expectations, and the Seattle factor. Let’s hope we hold up our end of the deal.

Got to say, after hearing this presser with Colin Kaepernick, one would think he entered into this with his eyes wide open. He understands that the deal wasn’t all about breaking the bank for himself, but more about giving the team flexibility in dealing with other player contracts dwon the road. It’s also obvious to me he wants Crabs to re-up with the team.

He was surprised it got handled as quickly as it did, but he understood what the deal offered in the way of compensation and incentives. For a young player of Kaepernick’s caliber, this is pretty monumental. For the young leader of a team to put the team’s needs WAY in front of his is a huge deal inside the locker room. It’s hard not to respect a guy who obviously gets it. That the game is about the team, not the player (side note: maybe Mike Singletary should give Vernon Davis a call). That he can subsume his  personal gain for the benefit of the team. Major kudos to Colin. It’s not like he’s a poor little pauper through this, but he sure could have pushed for a lot more money and gotten it. No one would have begrudged him anything. 

You know that loud groan you heard as these details came out were from Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, RG 3-13, and Andy Dalton. I’m sure their collective front offices are going to say “why can’t you be like Colin, and take a deal favorable for the team?”

Another funny side note is that all the people bitching and moaning about Kaepernick wanting to break the bank are now calling him a fool for signing in incentive-laden contract. Can’t have it both ways.  

Here’s the press conference from Wednesday:

http://abc7news.com/sports/kaepernick-talks-about-contract-extension/94075/

Well, it looks like my estimates of $18-20 mill for Kappy were right on. Our QB for the future is getting a 6 year, $126 millon extension from the 49ers. With a whopping $61 mill guaranteed.

UPDATE: The details are the guaranteed money is paid out on a rolling basis and has some pretty hard incentives to meet. 80% of the offensive plays, 1st team pro bowler, super bowl victory and such. And the guaranteed money is only in case of injury. Plus, Kappy needs to take out his own $20 mill insurance policy.

This puts to rest the thought of waiting out his final season and franchising him. Which I thought would have been a fool’s errand, but the bed is made, and the team is his for the foreseeable future. Or 2020. Whichever comes first. Waiting on this season to pass would have sealed his departure as someone else would have backed the truck or just gieven him a blank check to fill in the zeros.

Whether he can buck the trend of these mega deals never living up to their lofty asprations remains to be seen, but as we know now, Kappy is a hard working guy who at least appears to be driven to reach his and the team’s goals. We can talk about how the offense will progress at a later time, but for now, Kappy is among the highest paid players in the NFL.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but what in the wide wide world of sports is going on here? Does anyone really know what time it is? Does anybody really care? Has the time come today (ooooh another cool somg to post. 60’s funk!)? Is it 25 or 6 to 4? Is this the end, beautiful friend?

What I’m referring to of course is the 49ers offense and it’s recent lack of ability to get over the hump and into the promised land. One can safely say that the Niners could have been Super Bowl winners these past 3 years with a couple of non-turnovers, and some better play clock management. And I ain’t going to rehash those plays.

What I want to address is, what is this team going to DO about the issues that keep dogging this team? To me, the big issues are:

• Play clock management
• The red zone offense
• The passing game

Since the Nolan era came to be, the Niners used a play calling system that was basically this. 2 plays are given to the QB. A run play and a pass play. A primary and a backup. If the primary play is to be run, the call is roll roll. If they are to go with the backup, you hear kill kill kill. These are strictly pre-snap reads. Problem is, in a loud stadium, it’s hard to get one play in from the press box to the field, and then to the QB, let alone 2 plays. This often leads to the play clock running dangerously close to running out on about 75% of the plays during a game. This even happens at home. Like the 2nd and goal in the Super Bowl. Shit, I didn’t want to do that. This nagging problem has transcended 3 coaching staffs and myriad players, coaches, OCs, QBs, and HCs.

The red zone offense?  Well, the Niners were 15th in red zone scoring percentage at 53%. Certainly not terrible, but waaay behind successful teams like Denver and Cincy at 72%. Fat lot of good it did them, but for a team like the Niners, scoring at a brisker clip would put a lot less pressure on the offense. Kicking FGs and leaving so many games in the balance at the very end leaves one susceptible to late killer turnovers.

The passing game? Well, far be it from me to complain, but Jesus Christ, let’s get out of the stone age. 1-2 WR sets are a thing of the distant past.  Inviting teams to pack the box against the run does little to help the run game OR the passing game. If you run-blitz on a pass play, you instantly have at least 2 guys unblocked in the backfield. Brilliant when you are trying to disguise a pass play.  If you run blitz on a run, you more than likely stop that play as well. Inviting teams to play everyone up close to the line of scrimmage should open up the deep passing game, but for some reason, the Niners rarely ever pull that trigger. Whether through lack of talent, feare of turnovers, or lack of throwing time, they just don;t so it near enough to keep defenses honest.

 The prevailing sentiment is, why mess with success? Gore has put up big numbers. They win games at a steady clip. 36-11-1 (and a 5-3 playoff record) in 3 years is no mean feat. But, success measured how? Yes, we came out of the dark ages with the hire of Jim Harbaugh, but all we have gotten is tantalizingly close to the trophy. So, while reaching the NFC Championship 3 years in a row is a great thing, falling short 3 years in a row isn’t.

So, what now? The defense isn’t going to be better than it was last year with the loss of Donte Whitner and the Navorro Bowman injury, among the loss of Terell Brown, and the possible suspensions of Aldon Smith and Chris Culliver. So that leaves the offense to pick up the slack. Use more formations that spread the field out. Use 3-4 WRs from time to time. THere’s no need to go Mouse Davis here, but certainly they can stop using multiple WR formations on more than just 3rd down.   For too long we’ve dictated exactly how to stop our offense. Against teams like Tennessee and Houston, we can impose our will on them. Other times, not so much.

The (somewhat) good news is that Jim Harbaugh has specifically pointed to these very things as issues they need to work on this year. Even in the OTAs, Kappy was working on plays into the end zone (GASP!) from the red zone.  Something I hope they actually do. He also talked of scrapping the 2-plays-in-the-huddle deal and giving more control to Kappy at the line to determine the play to run. Harbaugh even went so far as to talk about using more 3 WR sets on OTHER than 3rd down.

Yay! Let’s hope it ain’t simply lip service.

Truth of the matter is, I think this talk of opening things up is directly related to the fact that they HAVE fallen short in these 3 seasons, and that Harbaugh wants to cash in. Without a Super Bowl This year (my definition of success), then they will be hard-pressed to throw the money at him that he wants.

So, between the NFLPA and Jolly Roger & Co, the NFL has a very structured approach to how the season starts, what happens in these initial gatherings, and who is allowed to do what to whom, Organized Team Activities have started. All this means is the offense walking through plays without pads, no hitting, but defenders kinda standing around providing obstacles. One thing I did hear about was Kappy, Boldin, Crabs, and Lloyd working on the red zone offense. Whether they scored or not wasn’t reported.

The only news coming out of these OTAs so far is the fact that Alex Boone and Vernon Davis haven’t shown up. Boone has voiced his concerns with his contract status right now, and is angling for a raise and extension. Vernon Davis’s absence is not clear at this point, but as of now since these OTAs are voluntary, this isn’t too alarming. But this doesn’t paint a picture of a team totally in harmony either. The rumblings around 4949 Centennial Blvd. is that Colin Kaepernick is looking to break the bank in his desire for a new contract. Is this a factor in Boone and possibly Vernon Davis suddenly wanting to get theirs before Kappy absorbs all the free money laying around the building? This is certainly a possibility. And this also follows along with the fact that Kappy’s signing would preclude keeping guys like Michael Crabtree and Mike Iupati, among others, as their contracts are coming due. Something we’ve all discussed for the last few months. To throw another wrench into the Kappy negotiations, Alex Smith apparently wants $18 mill a year, although his wife (!) has come out and said this is a false claim.

Since nothing is set in stone with the Kappy deal, there’s a ton of uncertainty right now with who can sign and when, not to mention the legal wrangling around Kappy, Aldon Smith, and Chris Culliver. Add the Harbaugh trade to Cleveland, and all the supposed animosity between Harbaugh and Trent Baalke and you have another layer of strange. As far as the rookies go, most are signed, with the exception of Marcus Martin, the center from USC. So, even though it’s the beginning of a brand new season, there’s a lot of weirdness floating around Santa Clara.

The future is now for a lot of the team as it is currently structured. They are poised to once again make a push for the Super Bowl, they have a strong team and a brand new stadium to fill, but a bad season could derail Harbaugh’s job, could concievably drive Kappy among a lot of other players out of here, and could send the team into a death spiral. If there’s any constant in the NFL it’s that it is VERY hard to stay relevant for any length of time, and it is very easy to slip from the perch of being a top-tier team. 

The 49ers are at least getting their newly drafted players into the fold. 8 of the 12 draft picks, including 1st rounder Jimmie Ward, have signed.  Which means in the least that there will be a lot of fighting for roster spots. Sure, most of the available spots are for 2nd-3rd string, or special teams, but still, competition makes the team grow stronger. Hopefully.

Granted, Jimmie Ward has a golden ticket to the slot/nickel CB spot, much like Eric Reid last year being handed the keys to the free safety position. One can hope the transition is as seamless for Jimmie as it was for Eric. Other than that, Bethea takes over for Whitner, Ellington takes over for the remarkably-still-on-the-team-but-not-for-long LMJ (who showed up for OTAs today), Marcus Martin joins the battle for the center position with Looney and Kilgore Trout, Brtandon Thomas looks to replace Mike Iupati, and Carlos Hyde becomes the possible heir-apparent to Frank Gore. Marcus Lattimore may have something to say about that, though.

The rest, and the UDFAs, are scrambling for precious few spots. We’ll likely revamp the taxi squad as well. Harbaugh (or someone) said that the team will more than likely only carry 2 QBs on the roster. Which makes the fight between Beth-el, Gabbert, and Josh Johnson a fight to the death. UDFA Kory QB Falkner will more than likely go to the PS.

The one position I really thought they’d look to upgrade is WR. Although Ellington is a speed-burner, his value for now is as a kick/punt returner. He’d come in to the WR battle as 5th on the depth chart behind Boldin, Crabs, Stevie Wonder, and Quinton Patton. Oh, yeah, and Brandon Lloyd. Although I think the fight for the #3 WR will rub out one of either Johnson or Lloyd. Maybe he can pass QP and be the deep threat we so desperately need.

Other than that, it’s backup LB, backup CB and backup DE spots being determined. Let the fun begin . . .

Well, news has slowed to a trickle these days regarding the 49ers, and the NFL in general, so let’s revisit the police blotter. Aldon Smith is scheduled to reappear in court for his three felony weapons charges and the misdemeanor DUI charge on Wednesday. Due to the two continuances already done, one would think that the lawyers are plea-bargaining their way to lesser charges all around. I’m sure they will remove the felony charges as they have to prove that Aldon knew he was intentionally buying illegal weapons. Hard to prove intent and foreknowledge when you just say ‘I thought they were cool, so I bought them.’

As far as the DUI goes, unless something comes out like he was drunk at the time of his arrest for the bomb threat deal, something alluded to but not tested for or noted in LAX, he should be fine with time served, and the voluntary 5 game suspension last year. As far as that airport thing goes, which Smith denies using the word ‘bomb,’ the LA city attorney’s office has yet to file any charges themselves. Whether LA is waiting for the other shit to be resolved first remains to be seen.

Smith, for his part, is in camp and working with the team. He’s saying some version of the truth will come out and paint a picture that isn’t as bad as it appears. I’d think there would be some action taken by the NFL, but I think it’ll be 2-4 games instead of 4-6. Possibly even no suspension and community service, but I’d say 4 games max, 2 likely. FOr his part, Jolly Roger said “The issue here is not to discipline players. The issue here is to stop the behavior. And aldon, to your point, has voluntarily said, ‘I need help.’ We are obviously there to support him and the 49ers did a great job getting him into a facility to try to get that help. And so, we all support that.” Not that I know the first thing about him, but everyone who has talked to him, whether inside the team or outside, including Ronnie Lott, have said he’s a good kid who  simply got overwhelmed by the vagaries of fame and money. He’s not a (his words) thug or a bad guy. Just a hard-working guy who got caught up in the hysteria.  

Kappy and Miami Vice? Nothing new from that. The charges should likely be dropped entirely as nothing new has come from Jesus or the others involved. The talk around Kappy Kapperson now is the fact that the Niners are still pushing to get a deal done with him before training camp starts July 27th. The numbers bandied about are truly scary, and he seems to want Flacco money ($20 mill per year) despite losing to Flacco in the Super Bowl, and coming up short with a truly shitty 4th quarter vs Seattle. I think something like 5/$100 mill – $40 mill guaranteed is inevitable. They’ll likely get it done early July.

As far as Grand Theft Auto’s newest NFL tie-in star Chris Culliver, and his five charges goes (felony hit and run, felony reckless driving with injury, felony possession of brass knuckles, misdemeanor hit and run and misdemeanor driving on a suspended license), I’m sure this will all be settled out of court (cha-ching!!) and the charges dropped. At most, community service and anger management classes.

In other news that tangentally affects the 49ers, Chicago Bears WR Brandon Marshall has signed a 3 year $30 million extension. Thus setting a hard ceiling for Michael Crabtree. For all the money Crabs thinks he’s worth, there’s no way he’s better than Marshall Marshall Marshall. These contract talks with Crabs look to be very interesting depending on how well he does this season. I think he’s a goner anyway, but what the Niners did in the draft don’t make me think they feel that way. But based on his original contract dealings, I see some animosity on the horizon.