Forty Niners Forever

Here we are in the thick of things. Funny how expectations go from “Gee, I hope we get a wildcard spot” to “Shit, we just lost the 1 seed!!” It is a three team race for the #1 seed, and we play 2 of them in our last 4. Win tomorrow and it won’t really solve any issues, but it would put pressure on Seattle to keep up. Lose tomorrow, and we are the 5 seed playing in either Dallas or Philly, unless Seattle really blows it.

The Rams? I have no faith in them to do anything but lay down like the dogs they are.

The Saints? Well, if this season has proven anything it’s that mobile QBs give us problems. And Drew Brees is anything but mobile. He ain’t even from Alabama. Dee Ford got an extra week off of rest, and Nick Bosa is chomping at the bit to hit a QB, so I feel like we can shut their offense down. I didn’t see any of these wipeouts coming, but I don’t think this is one of those.

But I don’t think we sweat this one too much. 31-17. Niners.  Unless Jimmy G plays give-away. If anything worries me about this team, it is Jimmy’s turnover issues.

Must Win. Crunch Time. All In. Draw the Line. However you want to say it, we are at the brink of ecstacy here. Our playoff push started with all those easy early wins. But after all that early semi-surprising success, we are 5th seed and hit the road against whatever dogshit team comes out of the NFC East if the season ended today. We have the best record in the NFL and no bye week or home game. Such are the vagaries of the NFL.

Tell me this on 9/1/2019 and I’d be giddy. Now however, it’s a little different story. Yes, I’d be more than happy to hit the playoffs, but we are SO close to a first round bye and home-field advantage for the playoff run.

Funny thing is, because of the schedule, we control our destiny for the playoffs. Win out, and we get the NFC West crown, based on our win over NO, and Seattle’s loss to them. Lose to the Saints, and we likely hit the 5 hole. Unless we beat Seattle. Then it gets cloudy.

The tiebreaker is as follows:

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the teams).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.

If Sea goes 3-1 and we go 3-1 and lose to NO, our head-to-head record would be 1-1.

Our common opponents would be the same, both of us losing to NO and Balt and beating the rest.

Our conference games would both be 11-3.

Strength of victory? Seeing as we stomped of our weaker opponents, and Seattle didn’t, we win in a landslide.

Oh, OK. That makes me feel a little better. We have some wiggle room.

The big BUT being, just beat the Saints and all is well. Unless we lose to Seattle. then they win the tiebreaker due to their 2 wins over us, I don’t really want to leave it to the last game, but it looks like we will regardless of how shit plays out.

In the grand scheme of things, this was a hard-fought loss. West going east, hostile environment, hostile weather, early start, hottest team . . . yeah yeah yeah. No moral victories here. We played tough till the end, and could have won. Without the mistakes we should have won. The defense was outstanding, we fought scratched and clawed till the end, and came up just a bit short. The run game had a surprising field day, with Raheem Mostert getting 146 yards on 19 carries and 2 TDs, while Jimmy G was 15-21 for 165 and a sweet TD to Deebo Samuels. A guy who is really coming on as a 1a type WR.

Thing is though, some troubling problems remain, even this late in the season. Jimmy G’s pocket awareness leaves a lot to be desired, as he fumbled away the ball deep in our own territory for an easy 7 for Baltimore, and threw a near-pick six deep in our territory as well. Yeah, the conditions were rotten, but Garoppolo has 5 lost fumbles (9 total, for minus 21 yards) and 10 interceptions, He’s solely responsible for 15 turnovers.

12 TEAMS don’t even have that many turnovers. The rest of the team has 4 fumbles, 3 of them lost.

These turnovers played a huge part in our two losses this year, and kept Pittsburgh in a game we should have romped in. In Seattle, Jimmy lost 2 fumbles and threw a pick. Yesterday of course, the fumble on our 20. Yes, teams have turnovers. Shit, we forced one from soon-to-be MVP Lamar Jackson. But that was his first lost fumble of the year. For a guy that runs so much, that’s something. Jimmy has the 5.

Seeing as we are in playoff mode right now, as in we need to win out to secure home field and the division, mistakes kill. And Jimmy G really needs to tighten his shit up.

Hate to say it, but I think we take the Saints pretty easily as well.  Our defense is much better than theirs, and I think we can shut down Brees and stop their run game.

Again, though, mistakes are the wildcard. Lose this game and we ARE the wildcard.

No idea how this one goes. But I think our defense can stop their offense enough to give us a squeaker of a win.

33-31 Niners.

(UPDATE – I was tired and a little buzzed when I wrote this last night)

I guess to commemorate the game tomorrow, they are showing Super Bowl XLVII on the NFL Network. Great movie but I hate the ending.

Happy Thanksgiving, folks! As we all know, there is much to be thankful in Ninerland this year. 10-1 record. Tops in the NFL. The #1 defense. Relevance. Nick Bosa. The emergence of Deebo Samuels. Hope y’all have a great thanksgiving, and safe  travels should you be hitting the roads. We’re heading to Aptos for football, family, and fun.

On tap today is the usual clunker thrown out by the 3-7-1 Deetroit. They get this ignominious game every year, and they suck at it, going 7-13 in the last 20, and 37-40-2 overall. This turkey day they face da 5-6 Bearss. Call this one the Tidy Bowl.

Dallas has fared better all these years, going 31-19-1 on TG, but only 11-9 recently. Choke on that turkey leg, Jerry! Dallas faces the team that knows how to circle the wagons the best, the Buffalo Bills.  A Dallas loss would be a nice precursor to stuffing our faces, and watching Frank Gore is always fun. Here’s to hoping Buffalo keeps up the pace with the Patriots.

The night game actually looks a little interesting with the Saints trying to exact their revenge on a recent inexplicable loss to the lowly Falcons. Wall to wall football.  Break out the stretchy pants.

Great game against another team that was supposed to give us trouble. As we have come to find out, non-mobile QBs have big problems with ur pass rushers. As good as that looks down the road, our next game is against Lamar Jackson. The sophomore shining star, and MVP front-runner, of the NFL this season. 24 TD passes (including 5 tonight so far) and 5 picks. 880 yards on the ground and 6 more TDs.  His yards won’t be off the charts, because they don’t need to be. He’ll prolly end up somewhere around 3,200 yards, but with a rating of 106 he’s killing it this season. The Ravens will have Jackson and Ingram both go over 1,000 in rushing, and they have trounced the Pats, the Rams, and many others.

Then there’s us. Our pass defense is the best in the NFL.  We have been very adept at stopping the passing game, and we have been pretty good at stopping the run. How will be do next week? I have no idea, but if ever there was a game where we needed Kwon Alexander and Dee Ford, it would be this one.

But that is next week. This week we get to bask in the glory of beating the shit out of the Packers. The Packers looked thoroughly defeated about midway through the 2nd quarter as Rodgers never got going, and their only TD was aided by some crappy officiating. The game pretty much got away from the Pack on the opening play, when Fred Warner strip-sacked Rodgers, and Nick Bosa recovered to the 2. One play later,  Coleman ran it in for 6.

The offense was a little out of sorts early, and Jimmy G took too many sacks, but if that is the cost of negating the occasional ill-advised throws we’ve seen in Jimmy’s short career, so be it. I loved the slant (my favorite play that Taylor and Rice used to run to perfection) to Deebo that showed off his speed and netted a 42 yard TD. And the 13 formation (1 back, 3 TEs) looked like the drag route we run all the time as Jimmy rolls left and throws underneath to a crossing WR. Instead, George Kittle ran a post/corner route, and he was wide open and off to the races for a 61 yard score.

Gonna be an interesting game next week. They hype will be cranking up all week.

Hey, we got flexed into prime time so disregard the sidebar game time. But I’m sure you all know that. Great to hear from 12th that the stadium is rocking these days. The game I saw, Pittsburgh, was loud, but there were a fair amount of Steeler fans there. Great fans for the most part, and it ended up being a solid win after all the turnovers.

And, here’s to hoping we learn something from the Raiders and not lay a gigantic turd. Losing 34-3 to the Jets? Ouch. Just when you think you can trust Gruden and the Raiders,  them, they grunt out an effort like that.

We got no help from the Iggles as they were stifled by the suddenly resurgent Seattle defense. Just left Seattle on Friday, driving my daughter’s car down with all her stuff as she relocates back to the Bay. Astoria and Cannon Beach in Orygun are pretty damn beautiful. Great little break from the action.

The Rams are fighting for their playoff lives tomorrow. At home against the Ravens no less. I guess it would be nice to see if someone could slow the Ravens down, but I highly doubt it.

Anyhow, I think our offense will do better than Green Bay’s defense, so we win going away. A win would further give us breathing room for home field aqws we would have a 2 game lead and head-to-head, and with the Saints looking like they are about to lose, we would be that much better down the stretch.

Here we sit, 9-1 and on top of the NFL, according to some of those wonky ‘power rankings’ for this crazy 2019 season. Easy Street? Sure, but . . .

. . . there’s always a big but. The but is of course the last 6 games. Our remaining teams have a combined .683 winning percentage. Take out the Falcons and that rises to .760. No small task. And given that we are pretty banged up, the task becomes even tougher. Our stout and deep defense has lost Kwon Alexander and Dee Ford. Our daunting pass rush was slowed down by mobile quarterbacks these last 3 games.

Up next? Well, he ain’t mobile, but he is a long-lasting thorn in the 49er side, and local Chico boy, Aaron Rodgers. You know, the guy we could have drafted waaaay back in 2005. He’s ‘only’ 6-4 in his career vs the Niners, but he’s thrown 13 TDs and 2 INTs. The fun part is our 2-0 playoff record vs Green Bay. Both engineered by Colin Kaepernick.

At this point, this, along with the Falcons game appears to be the most winnable. The Packers seem to be winning by smoke and mirrors. Their signature wins so far are wins over a (Ma)homeless Chiefs team, and a win over the Cowboys. They inexplicably lost to the Chargers, and beat the Iggles.

Can we take them? Sure, if we can rediscover our pass rush. We don’t have to worry about the scrambling aspect of Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray (2x), but as we have seen over the years, Rodgers is very adept at getting outside the pocket and throwing accurately on the run.

Contain and destroy is the word of the day.  I think we can take these guys fairly handily.

31-17 Niners.

Hate to say it but even at this stage of the season, this is a must-win game vs the Cards.  Mainly based on the rest of the schedule in front of this game. With a streak of bad luck, this team could go 1-6 for 9-7. Shit, even Atlanta is starting to play up to their preseason expectations. I think we should  be able to eke out 3 more wins, even with the daunting schedule, and that would put us at 11-5. Win the division? Not sure. But that game in Seattle to close the season looks like it may decide the division. Lots of football between now and then.

Thing is though, we are getting slowly decimated with injuries. Kittle needs to be ready down the stretch, and so does E Sanders. The passing game totally revolves around those two guys. As does the run game. Yes, the defense is playing out of its mind, but even they are getting picked off one by one. Our depth along the line is being tested with Blair is out with an ACL tear, and of course so is Kwon Alexander.

So, we need this win to stop the bleeding, but also to get our division record on track again.

Playing here, we should do better than two weeks ago, so I;m thinking 28-17, Niners.

STAY HEALTHY!

Everyone has seen the footage by now, so we all know what happened. Garrett was suspended ‘indefinitely’ by Jolly Roger, so we will get to see what that means. I think it will be somewhere around 16 games. a full season. What Vontaze Burfict did was at least within the confines of a football play, dirty as it was. As was what Damarious Randall did to Dionte Johnson in yesterday’s game. He was later seen bleeding from his right ear as he went into the medical tent. And what happened to Juju Smith-schuster when he was hit in the head twice by  Greedy Williams and Morgan Burnett. The Juju play wasn’t even flagged despite the double-tap as he lay there unconscious, but Randall was ejected for his spearing.

But what Garrett did was crazy. If he had hit Rudolph with the crown of his helmet, he very well could have cracked Rudolph’s skull. Yeah, this is a violent game, and rivalries run deep, but I think for the most part players respect their opponents to the point of trying to play clean and within the rules.

Sure, the mind-set takes time to permeate the league, but because of the myriad rule changes, warranted or not, and helpful or not, are there to protect these guys from each other (and to help offenses score points, can’t forget that). Clotheslining went the way of Night Train Lane. Head-clubbing, the way of Deacon Jones. Pounding receivers till the ball is thrown, the way of George Atkinson and Mel Blount. Touching the QB, Tom Brady, of course. Helmet-to-helmet is just the latest indicator of trying to keep these guys from later incapacitating injuries.

Funny thing is, you look at old footage of Ronnie Lott, and he didn’t hit that way. Like most people back then, they led with the shoulder. Look at Lott, and his shoulder pads were huge. Linebacker pads. Players wore much bigger pads back in the 70s. And they used them. Now, with smaller pads, i guess you have faster players, highers collision speeds, and a fundamental change in tackling style. Leading with the head.

Yeah, guys have stuck their heads into hits since forever, but more often than not, they ended up hurting themselves. At some point soon, I think they are going to install accelerometers into every player’s helmet, and if it goes off during a game, the player is penalized/ejected/suspended, whatever.

Garrett? I think he’d be charged with assault with intent to maim if he had hurt Rudolph. Like I said, I think he gets a full season of games suspended. maybe even up to the 2021 season.