Forty Niners Forever

Well, the opening of training camp on Friday. Not much news as of now, other than the signing of Darcel McBath, a free agent CB from Texas Tech. He was a 2nd round pick by the Broncos in 2009 (one start), cut by Denver during the 1st week of the 2011 season, and signed with Jacksonville in December 2011 after their defensive backfield was waylaid by injuries.  He was then released by Jax on April 23rd. He’s here for depth/special teams, and if you read between the lines, is here to shore up the CBs as the 49ers look to replace Dashon (chickenHawk) Goldson.  My theory being that current CB Chris Culliver moves to FS to replace Goldson and the other CBs not named Carlos Rogers fight for the other CB spot. The contestants are Perrish Cox,  Tramaine Brock, Tarell Brown, Curtis Holcomb, Darcel McBath, Cory Nelms, and rookies Anthony Mosley and Deante’ Purvis. T Brown leads the pack (4 INTs last year), with Brock (2 picks) trailing. Reggie Smith has looked good at times, and the coaches have been very high on Curtis Holcomb, the 2nd year guy who missed all of last year with a ruptured achilles.

So, even without Hawk, the 49er secondary looks like it won’t miss a beat if he decides to commit hara kiri on his own career. Goldson is on a fool’s mission if he decides to hold out. As it is, he’s setting himself up to be the forgotten man, as Shawtae Spencer was last year. Goldson saw first hand how holding out worked for Aubrayo Franklin, and he saw how the Niners front office played hard ball with their starting QB. Why he thinks he’ll get a deal after blowing off the 5/$25 mill deal from 2 years ago, and reportedly turning down 3/$21 mill this year is baffling at best. He turned down $5 mill a year, said his goodbyes, took a $3 million pay cut to come back, and now is balking at a $4-$5 million raise? He’s getting some baaaad advice from his agent. If he misses one day, I think he’ll slide right down that depth chart.

Rookies reported yesterday, and both AJ Jenkins and LaMichael James look to be contributors as quick as possible. James is in catch-up mode as he couldn’t participate in most of the OTAs due to his still being a college student during them. He has this week to get up to speed as the rest of the team reports on Friday. jennkins is back in shape after reporting to camp a little fat and a little slow. He says he’s more than ready to contribute any way he can. If anything, it’ll be nice to have a backup to Ted Ginn for PR/KR duties.

In more good news, Aldon Smith hasn’t been arrested, shot, or stabbed lately.

Sad new that Cleveland Elam passed away. He was part of a short-lived but great defensive line in the late 70s that was nigh unstoppable. He, along with Skip Vanderbundt, Cedrick Hardman, and Tommy Hart formed the Gold Rush. A defensive line that waylaid opposing QBs at will. In 1976 he had 17.5 sacks, and was part of the Ram game that Tommy Hart recorded 6 sacks in one game. The team ended up with 10 sack that game. He had 4 strong years with the Niners and got hurt in Detroit, which cut his career short.

Other than that, I’m out of town for the weekend. Pismo Beach! Taking the dirt bikes out for fun while my wife works.

And all is well. Well, except for Dashon and his hold-out. Dashon is doing himself no favors by pulling this shit. He should sign the tender and report for duty. The last time he tried to hold out for a big contract, he tweeted all over himself about how the team pressured him into signing by getting Donte Whitner and Maideu Williams, blew off the 5 year, $25 million deal they offered him, proclaimed his services were available on the open market, tweeted his goodbyes, and came back with his tail between his legs when there were no takers (NE nibbled and balked), and signed a one year/$2 mill deal last season. Doh! Now he’s reluctant to sign a $6 mill one year deal? Must be nice to live in that fantasy neighborhood.

Frankly, he isn’t a very important piece of this defense. They could easily absorb his loss THIS year. The Niners have 2 rookies that look good, plus Colin Jones from last year in addition to Chris Culliver, a tweener CB who played a lot of safety in college.

Anyhow, beyond that, there’s little to fight for as far as jobs go this preseason. Backup QB should be interesting with the addition of Josh Johnson, Jim Harbaugh’s protege from USD. Johnson was fairly underwhelming as Josh Freeman’s backup in TB, but then again, Cappy Kaepernick has not shown much, or even had much opportunity to show his stuff. Both these guys are going to live or die by how they practice. Although thiese upcoming preseason games will be very mportant to determine their status. Tolzein looks like the odd man out, and very well may end up on the PS. Back up FB, TE, and some D line spots are up for grabs. Tukafu at FB? Hey, why not? Staley caught a pass, as well as Sopoaga. Harbaugh’s not reluctant to try the occasional trick play or odd formation. Might as well try some weird shit to get mismatches out there on the field.

Seeing how far the team progressed last year, it will be interesting to see how this season unfolds. Last year, it was baby steps, a lot of running, and the occasional return to ineffectiveness as the offense struggled to find consistency. The offensive numbers didn’t change drastically from 2010 to 2011. Except for one important category. Turnovers. In 2010, in 11 games, Smith threw 14 TDs and 10 picks. in 18 games last year, Smith was 22/5. Vast improvement. Is this the sign of things to come? Or was the offense dumbed down to take advantage of Smith’s ability to check down quickly? This is a little of both, with a mediocre WR corps thrown in, but some of this improvement has to do with Harbaugh saying to Smith he isn’t going to get jerked around for a bad play or bad game, as Singletary was doing. Surprisingly, passing yards were down a little from 2011 to 2010. But the run game jumped from 19th to 8th. As some people understand, a good running game can complement the passing game, and create favorable down/distance scenarios. Smith can win games throwing for 230-260 yards, and maybe 25 attempts. They don’t need to (nor will they) go into a pass-heavy offense. As much as people throw stats around, NE, NO, GB, and Deetroit (the top 4 passing offenses) all watched from the sidelines. Granted, the Niners should improve from 29th, but the passing game should improve, if not markedly, from the addition of some WR talent, and a full training camp with everyone in place.

Thanks, Phil. I’m stealing this from the last thread.

Thursday, July 12: NFL supplemental draft, 10 a.m. (Eligible players are:

Boise State DB Quaylon Ewing
Utah WR Josh Gordon
Syracuse RB Adam Harris
Iowa State OT Adrian Haughton
Carson-Newman LB Larry Lumpkin
Georgia DE Montez Robinson
McMurray WR Houston Tuminello
TCU RB Ed Wesley

Monday, July 16: Franchise player signing deadline.

Saturday, July 21: 49ers rookies and selected veterans report for training camp.

Monday, July 23: First practice for 49ers rookies and selected veterans.

Thursday, July 26: Veterans report for 49ers training camp.

Friday, July 27: First 49ers full-squad practice.

Tuesday, Aug. 7: Deadline for players under contract to report to their clubs.

Friday, Aug. 10: Exhibition game vs. Minnesota, 6 p.m.

Sunday, Feb.  9, 2013: 49ers win Super Bowl XLVIII over Tennessee

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As far as Hawk goes, he’s amenable to playing under the franchise tag at $ 6 mill per. It sure beats losing a 5 year/$25 mill deal for a $2 mill one as he did last year. The point being, he wanted security but turned it down last year. Now he wants it again, but the team is like, uh-uh-uh. Nope. Not this time, skippy. You have to wait. Frankly, I think he’s gone after this season regardless. They have cheaper options already in place. They’ll use that money to re-up Bowman. And sign a rejuvenated Randy Moss . . .

Aldon Smith is a fantastic linebacker. One of the best in the game right now. Many are comparing him to a young Ray Lewis. And the description is apt. They are equal in stature, equal in intensity, equal in ferocity, and equal in their passion for the game of football. However, there appeaers to be another comparison that they are closing in on. And that is geting into trouble. The 22 year old Smith so far this year has been busted in Fla for DUI, and more recently he was stabbed at a party he threw at his house in Santa Clara. He said he was breaking up a fight, but it was obvious he put himself into a situation that could have ended much worse. As with Ray Lewis, and his avoidance of murder charges, Smith is on a trajectory that isn’t heading in the right direction.

Before Smith was drafted, there were concerns about his maturity. He was a model citizen his first season, and hadn’t done much to raise any eyebrows until Junuary and the DUI arrest. Granted, living under the scrutiny of a 24/7/365 news cycle that picks everything to pieces, 2 incidents in the span of 5 months is a bit troubling. If I was living under that kind of microscope when I was 22, I’d have been considered a menace to society. I didn’t lead a very smart life at 22, but on the other hand, I didn’t have much at stake, nor did I have the leaches, hangers-on, and scammers  that are attracted to a young wealthy football player.  Sure, it’s a fine line between being a young guy having a good time, and someone who is a danger to himself or others.  The past 10 years are littered with stories of guys getting accused of rape, getting rolled in Vegas, domestic violence, DUI, assualt, on and on.

Smith’s wounds are apparently superficial, but it sure seems like he’s not doing a very good job of managing his shit. Which is what this all comes down to. When you’re in college, and you are top dog, you are in a fairly insulated situation, with people around you who are for the most part other college students. Out in the real world, there are plenty of people on the hunt to make a buck off your ass. Get yourself a nice entourage and you invite shit like what went down with Ray Lewis after the 2000 Super Bowl. You can end up in the can on murder charges. Go out flashing your bling at strip clubs and you can end up like Javon Walker of the Raiders. Robbed, beaten, bloody, and unconscious in the streets of Vegas. Your $20,000 worth of bling  you were flashing earlier gone.

So, as comparisons go, Smith is a bright young talent on the edge of what looks like a no-brainer Hall of Fame career. As was Ray Lewis back in 2000 when he was convicted of murder. Smith HAS to understand that continuing down this path of stupidity could derail his life in the blink of an eye.

My kingdom for a, well, something . . .

Anyhow, here are the exciting OTA highlights.

http://bit.ly/MVmH22

Still 3 + weeks til camp opens and we’ve talked about Alex Smith’s soon-to-be-crowning super bowl coronation MVP ceremony in 7 months, Randy Moss’s return to relevance to cap off his Hall of Fame career, the NFL’s most dominating defense leading the league in scoring against, and turnover +/- at 34, and the soon-to-be-constructed and filled up stadium.

Hey, it could happen. Me? I think Moss has a decent year, Crabs gets a little better, but the surprise will be AJ Jenkins. He and Super Mario will lead the way for the passing attack. I think Jacobs has a big year as well.  I’m starting to think these guys can go 12-4 on their way to a 1st round bye, and possibly home-field advantage.

A lot will be determined in week  1 on Green Bay.

What do you guys think? Who has a surprising or breakout year? VD goes over 1, 000?  Alex over 4,000 yards? Rogers with 10 picks? Aldon with 17 sacks?

A ringing endorsement of Alex Smith . . . from none other than Joe Montana. Funny, Joe here is saying what a lot of people have been saying all these years. It’s a tough  row to hoe when you are in 3rd and 12 constantly and you don’t have any WRs getting open to throw the ball to. Fairly interesting is the mindset that Joe talks about. The whole ‘getting into the flow’ and being consistent was a staple of the Walsh years with Joe and Steve. Ball control, and move the chains. These are concepts that the West Coast Offense is built upon. This is what Harbaugh is trying to create with Alex Smith right now.

Yes, there were too many stalled drives. Yes, the 3rd down conversion rate stank. But last season was very abbreviated in Harbaugh being able to fully install his offense. I mean, it certainly was a lot more conservative in that 1st Seattle game than it was in the NO playoff game. And this was with little to no production out of the WRs. Davis WAS the passing game, for the most part. Crabs had a decent year, but he was rendered pointless in the playoffs. Whether by double teams or whatever, he seemed to fall back into old bad habits of not finishing routes, and never being aware of Smith in trouble and him trying to get free. I wish I could see game tapes of the playoff games, but the few glimpses into the secondary showed Crabs usually not looking for or helping his QB once plays broke down.

The new crop of WRs should help some, if not a lot. Mario Manningham isn’t the burner they need, but he’s big, and he has great hands. Crabs has officially gotten a fire lit under his ass. His time to really become what he thinks he is is now. AJ Jenkins should fill the speed burner role if he can catch on fast. He certainly can follow in the footsteps of a guy like DeSean Jackson, a small fast guy who made an immediate impact. The enigma Randy Moss? Well, everyone is saying great things about the guy, and so far, he’s gotten glowing practice results. I guess we have to wait and see what the regular season brings with him. I’m sure he doesn’t want his legacy to be crashing and burning with 4 teams (Tenn, Minn, NE, and now SF) on his way out of the league.

I guess it could happen, but the Saints appear to be imploding from within (franchising and thus pissing off Drew Brees) and from the outside (Bounty-gate, sanctions, fines and suspensions of coaches and players) on and on. The players can’t be very happy that the front office decided to take a stand with their unquestioned leader and heart and soul of the team, the city of New Orleans, and the whole goddamned state of Louisiana. Add to that the GMs suspension, the head coach’s suspension, and some of the players getting tossed as well, it makes for a clusterbomb of epic proportions. The team has until July 16th to make this happen, and then Brees has the option to sit the year and collect the franchise tag tender of $16.4 million, sign the one-year  tender, or hold out for his want of a little bit over $20 mill per on a 5 year deal. The Saints offered something near $19 mill but that’s not enough apparently.

I’m sure once he;s under contract,. all will be OK as far as the team goes, but there’s still the fact that the team is without its head coach for the year. Gregg (genius) Williams is long gone anyway (sorry StL, you walked into that spinning propeller), so it’ll be very interesting to see how the team responds to the absence of Sean Payton. The NFC South isn’t exactly a powerhouse, with the Falcons unable to get out of their own way, and the Buccos pulling the full-monty reversal from darling to doormat to now an afterthought. That leaves the Panthers as the possible upstart that takes the suddenly Saintless division, should they falter. If they could play decent defense behind Cammy, they’d be well on their way to respectability Regardless of what Alex Smith says.

Nope. Super Bowl champs usually get bounced in the 1st round of the playoffs, or not even reach them. At least it has happened recently with GB, NO, Pittsburgh, NYG, Indy, Pitt again, aaaand I got tired of looking any further back.  Ths point being, the Giants were shakey as it was entering the playoffs, and had their miracle run, so I don’t even think they qualify.  They are a fairly balanced team, and they have a punishing defense, but is it enough?  They lost super Mario and Brandon Jacobs among others, and are trying to replace them with draftees (David Wilson-RB-Va Tech and highly regarded Rueben Randle-WR-LSU).

Tom Coughlin seems to be an all-or-nothing kind of coach besides. The players either crash and burn under his unrelenting pressure, or they manage to hold it together long enough to get in and make their playoff run. I mean shit, this was a team that lost twice to the Redskins, and lost to Seattle among their stumbles.  I suppose this all has something to do with parity in the league, and Pete Rozelle’s evil socialist plot regarding how any team can retool quickly and blah blah blah. The 49ers certainly are a case in point of this theory. They were an underperforming 6-10 squad under Aluminum Mike Singletary. Poof, add a new head coach, and we are knocking on the Super Bowl door.

So, as I see it, NY struggles to even reach the playoffs as they succumb to the Super Bowl hangover.

41 days and counting to til the 49ers start camp, although there is a rookie OTA type thing next week. LaMichael James has his last final yesterday, so he can finally participate in something these next few days. As it is, though, everyone is out of town for the next month until July 26th rolls around. Harbaugh himself is off to Peru today for a week to help build houses with a Catholic church down there. No rest for the weary, eh?

Since we are in speculation mode (and have a month to kill), what the hell? I’m picking the 49ers to win the NFC. This schedule is tougher than last year’s, but I sure didn’t see much improvement from the teams around them.

That being said, Green Bay is likely the biggest threat to the Niners going to the Super Bowl. And that is Game One. On the road. The Frozen Tundra. Title Town, USA. Blah Blah Blah. At least it’s September, not January. If we need to go back in January, so be it. The annoying thing is, in 2 of the past 3 seasons, the Niners have played Green Bay in Green Bay (they came here last in 2006), and again, the Niners go there.

Anyhow, not surprisingly, GB used their first 6 out of 8 picks on defense. They used their first pick on a sleeper-type pass rushing DE/OLB (sound familiar?) in Nick Perry out of USC. My hope is he continues the pattern of being the usual overhyped shitty draft pick out of the University of Spoiled Children. The rest of their picks went DT/CB/DE/SS/ILB with a couple compensatory picks at the end (OT and QB). BJ Coleman is expected to take Matt Flynn’s spot on the QB depth chart. Good luck with that BJ.

GB obviously saw their major weaknesses, and that was pass rush/pass coverage, so they loaded up there. Still and all, a challenge for them to improve their defense with one draft (I know. Don’t mention Bill Walsh’s 1981 draft). Their O? Well, they look good there with Chico’s own Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings, and Jordy Nelson tearing up the passing lanes. However, Donald Driver’s getting old and may not come back. Jerwhatshisname Findley is a little underwhelming, but they are the class of the NFL in passing offense. Their run game? Well, they don’t use it much, and it got weaker with the loss of  Ryan Grant (559 yards), and the non-awe-inspiring James (578 yards) Starks. Their only big FA acquisition was the addition of Jeff Saturday (age 37) as their center.

As the NY Giants showed though,  pressure Rodgers, slow down the aerial assault, and you can beat the Pack. One-dimensional teams may fly through the regular season, but in the playoffs, your shortcomings are exposed. GB was torched for 325 yard in the air, and committed 4 turnovers (2 picks).  The Niners upgraded their secondary by signing miscreant Perrish Cox in a direct response to the arsenal of pass-happy QBs they face this season. Beyond Rodgers, the Niners play Brady, Stafford, Bradford (2x), E Manning, Brees, and Flynn (2x) among others.  Goldson continues to seek out a big payday, but he’s pretty much guaranteed himself a seat on the bench or sidelines at this point. The Niners have enough talent to absorb his absense or burial on the depth chart. Our Rogers, Whitner, Culliver, and T Brown look to pick up right where they left off last year.

Pass rush is king in Ninerland, though. A strong pass rush creates a lot of those interceptions. The +28 in turnovers last year may or may not happen again (don;t count on it), but Aldon Smith has a full TC to work through, Bowman and Willis have another year to build on together, and the relentless Justin Smith show no signs of slowing down or backing off. The rotation of interior linemen appears stronger than last year with the emergence of Demarcus Dobbs and the return of injured Wil Tukafu to complement Ice Sopoaga and Ray McDonald. 7th round draft pick Cam Johnson could very well be a steal.