Forty Niners Forever

Well, statistically speaking, about 25 teams. What I thought was a mere blip on the road to the playoffs last week in Seattle turns out to be something a little bit more foreboding. The 49ers pretty much followed the same script of doing little on offense, and leaning on the defense all day to keep the score close. The D did it’s job until, much like Seattle, eventually wore down as the offense couldn’t do anything until garbage time.

When the 3rd quarter started, the Niners were down 10-7. The Niners gained 19 yards on 3 runs, a pass, and a sack, and punted. That drive took 2:58. Indy got the ball and drove 53 yards, burned 5:03, and kicked a FG. At this point, the Niners were still one score from taking the lead, 13-7. They had a promising drive going when Kappy took a 5 yard loss on a read option that was completely blown up by Freeman of the Colts. A short run and short pass later, we punt. Indy then burns ~6 minutes to miss a FG. Still within reach. The next drive is a beaut. Incomplete pass. 4 yard pass. Sack. The Niners give the defense a whopping 1:19 to rest.

At this point, the Colts have been on offense for roughly 12 minutes to the 49ers 6. Indy then burns ~8 minutes to ice the game with a TD to go up 20-7 with 4:27 left. Of course then next drive was a fumble on the 8 that Indy recovered. Set up by another inexplicable return by Kendall Hunter. Between Hunter returning kickoffs to the 12 and KW fair catching balls inside the 10, the Niners had shitty field position all day. And when they didn’t they still blew their opportunities.

Still and all, a galling effort by the offense. The D isn’t generating much of a pass rush these days, but they did their job as well as they could given the ineptitude of the offense. The run D, a usual strength, has been gashed for a lot of 8-12 yard runs. Justin Smith does not command the double teams he used to, and the LBs aren’t nearly as clean as they used to be in pursuit. This leads to play action freezing the LBs and loosening the coverage downfield. Offensively, the WRs re never able to get open, while the line, our supposed strength, has done an awful job of pass protection. Mainly at the center position. Goodwin has been beaten regularly, and Kappy is forced to run. Usually to the left, as Staley is holding up better than Davis. This makes is near impossible to throw on the run. Speaking of run, the run game had been abandoned too quickly in my mind as well. All this leads to an anemic offensive attack that is making Jimmy-Hat look like Air Coryell.

The great news is we have a roadie in St Louis Thursday night. A loss there would put the 49ers 0-2 in the division, and possibly 3 games behind the Seahawks. They have a roadie of their own in Houston. Seattle is fair to middling on the road, but they certainly look about 80% better than we do at this point.

At least it is for Jim Harbaugh and Andrew Luck. The last time they were together, it was for the Jan 2011 Tostitos Bowl or something like that. Now? Indy is a little shakey from a near loss to the Raiders on opening day, and a loss to the not-so-lowly-anymore 2-0 Miami Dolphins. They got themselves in the news this week by trading next year’s 1st round pick to the Cleveland Browns for Trent Richardson, a guy they traded up in the 1st rouns to the #3 overall pick to get last year. In other words, a very cursious move as it smacks of giving up on this season for the Brownies. This after week 2. Lots of disgruntled fans by Lake Erie. The Niners got themselves into the news as well. But for much more awful reasons. Defensive standout Aldon Smith was busted trying to run over a tree at 7:00 am Friday morning. He was booked on DUI, pot possession, and possession of prescription meds of some kind. This is part of a pattern of brushes with the law, including a pleaded down DUI in Miami, being a passenger in a roll-over accident at the bewitching hour of 2:30 am, and his infamous house party where he got stabbed, and he allegedly shot at someone.

Youthful hijinks? Sure, you could say that, and there have been plenty of people who have had a few scrapes with the law only to go on and get their shit together and move on. On the other hand, life is riddled with talented individuals who can’t get out of their own way, and either hurt themselves or people around them. The 49ers meanwhile have chose the path of least resistance. Jim Harbaugh has said that Smith will suit up and play today. Curious, as when Demarcus Dobbs was busted for pot last year, the team left him at home for a road game. They suspended Brandon Jacobs for the last 4 games of the season for posting pics of himself in his Giants uni.

What’s the difference between Dobbs, Jacobs, and Smith? Well, Smith is an MVP-worthy talent. The others? Not so much. The 49ers can choose to be proactive regarding this, and leave him off the roster today. Or they can put Smith above his teammates, and start him. The point being, regardless of his status as an elite player, the front office and the coaches need to remind Aldon that playing football is a privilege. Yes, it is a privilege he has earned the right to play, but recent events tell another story. Taken separately, one of these screw-ups isn’t a major deal. But throw them together and you have a pattern of behavior that is troubling at best. Self-destructive at worst.

Yes, the 49ers desperately want to erase the taste of that Seattle beat-down. and yes, this is the NFL, where wins are a hard-fought commodity that takes a team effort to earn. But the team needs to show Aldon that there are consequences for screwing up, and he has to take a look at his actions as ones that are causing harm to himself and those close to him, andf that he isn’t bigger than the team. Otherwise, letting him start shows the rest of the team that as long as you are a great player, you don;t have to follow the rules that the rest of the guys must.

Despite the itching desire to blow up the offense and go Mouse Davis, the 49ers season rolls on. This looked like a tough game when the season started, but Indy has been fairly underwhelming so far this season. Ekeing out a near disastrous loss vs the Raiders in their back yard, and losing to a Miami team that isn’t scaring anyone. What does that mean for the Niners? Well, nothing much. The Niners, who have an annoying habit of looking stupidly horrible every once in a while, look to get back on track in their home-sludge advantage park, the Stick.

I’m fairly sure the Niners can beat a team that has to travel this far, who isn’t all that good, other than their QB, Jim Harbaugh’s buddy Andrew Luck, and who have their usual chip on their shoulder after the soul-crushing loss in Seattle. Should a lot be read into the Seattle loss? The Niners were beaten like a drum there last year, and were crushed and worn down again this last week. Granted, it’s hard to play in that environment, and their home winning streak is littered with playoff teams, including Green Bay, Minnesota, New England, and of course, us, so it’s not like this is a fluke streak against shitty opponents.

So, no. There’s no need to jettison this offense in favor of going crazy in the air. That being said, I still would like to see Harbaugh rotate out of this read-option/diamond formation offense. I would much rather see multiple WR formations and us running out of passing formations, whether the pistol, shotgun, or behind center. If the scenario ends up where we see Seattle in the playoffs, then we’ll figure out how to deal with it. But chances are the 49ers won’t see Seattle until next season.

Wow. One measly little loss and the bandwagon is in flames in a ditch with two broken axles. Granted, it was about as ugly as it gets, but this is the NFL, where a team like Miami can beat last year’s darlings, the Indy Colts. Or San Diego can finally hold a 4th quarter lead after 8 years of trying. Be that as it may, the niners travelled to the Great White Northwest to take on the rain and the Seahawks. Was it ugly? Was it the worst performance of Young Colin Kaepernick’s career? Were the 49ers outcoached? Out hustled? Outschemed? Overmatched? Scared of the lightning? Yes to all of the above. Much like the GB game, Seattle’s defense stuffed the run. They did it by loading the box with 8-9 guys and daring us to throw. Unfortunately, unlike Green Bay, the Seattle DBs neutralized the passing game. Anquan Boldin went from penthouse to outhouse. 217 yards to 7. The Niners defense did finally hold Marshawn Lynch to under 100 yards, but it hardly mattered. The effectiveness of the defense was obliterated by the colossal ineptitude of the offense. For all the hooraw around this game and the resulting bandwagon leapers, the defense held Seattle to 12 points through 3 quarters. Hardly an insurmountable deficit. The Niners even had a blocked punt.

I could go into the abject failure of the offense (lousy blocking, lousy scheme, bad passing, no run game, etc), and the ease at which Seattle put the game away late, but we all saw the fugliness unfold in gory detail last night. Is this the end of the Super Bowl run? Are we now second fiddle in our own division? This very well may be the case, but then again, minus a DeAngelo Williams fumble last week, Seattle loses. It’s week 2 folks. There’s a lot of football left to be played. Is there reason to worry? Oh yeah. The line play on both sides was shockingly poor. And the refs were absolutely on glue with some of the calls. Nnami Asomugha was called for shielding when he was BEHIND the WR going for the tip. Aldon Smith’s penalty for tapping someone’s helmet was equally ridiculous. But the results speak for themselves. The Niners again looked woefully unprepared for the game. But the deal was, much like the Green Bay game, this was Seattle’s Super Bowl. This was the biggest game in Seattle in years. They played fast and loose. The Niners were tight and reactionary.

So, is Seattle Kappy’s kryptonite? Jim Harbaugh is 3-2 vs his nemesis Pete Carroll, but all 3 of the wins came with Alex Smith at QB. Kappy is 0-2 now. Speaking of Kappy, he looked VERY tentative yesterday. Gone were the slashing runs and accurate passes he’s shown. He was off target all night, which induced 3 picks. The 1st especially galling as the Niners had blocked a punt, and had great field position. He tried to stuff a pass to VD in double coverage. It might have worked if it was on target, but it wasn’t. The deep ball to VD was also badly underthrown. The 3rd pick was flat awful. Don’t know where that was going. His running was tentative as well. He seemed to wait too long in the pocket as the WRs failed to get open, and ended up sacked. The line blocking didn’t do much, but even when Kappy had time, he missed open targets. And Bruce Miller had about as bad a day as possible. Getting called for holding in the end zone for a safety, and dropping a TD pass before the first pick.

So what to gather from this? Mainly the fact that the Niners don’t play well in the Seattle rain, and they need to pay some serious attention to the line play and work on getting the WRs involved in the game plan. The harbinger of the overmatched wideouts getting shut down came to be, and Harbaugh’s idea of going to Miller out of the backdfield, while a good idea, in the end didn’t work. Despite the blowout, the defense played well enough to win. The offense did nothing to keep them off the field. 37:00 to 23:00 in time-of-possession is atrocious.

Crazy game tonight, eh? Catching some shit for predicting a Seattle win, but at this point, anything can happen. Seattle looked like shit on the road last week, and won by 6. The Niner offense looked nigh unstoppable in the air at home last week. And won by 6. The difference was the Niners played a very talented Green Bay team, while the Hawks played the lowly Carolina Panthers. What does it mean? Nothing. The She-Hawks (coined by Anthony Dixon, among others) always play well at home, and they are trying to break the world record for loudest crowd noise, something held by some Iranian soccer game at 131 db or some shit. The hope is the Guinness folks check for illegal amplification, as is thought by some around here.

So, are the Hawks the latest flash in the pan? Early indications certainly can be read that way. But this is a game that Pete ‘what’s-your-deal’ Carroll has circled on his calendar. He’s always jacked up for a Harbaugh game. But so has St. Jimmy Harbaugh. Jim of course had to endure a humiliating 72-3 defeat last year. Forgive me for not wanting to recall that score, but it was ugly. I’ve gone over the circumstances around that already, and why the Niners were out of sorts that night, but that’s the past. The Niners moved on and nearly won it all while Seattle failed in the playoffs. If anyone has an axe to grind, it’s St. Jimmy for getting thumped last year.

As far as statement games go, well, Seattle certainly has a lot more to lose than the Niners. If they lose to the 49ers at home after a major struggle against Carol, then yeah, there will be talk of the Hawks not quite being ready for prime time. If Seattle wins a tough battle, then the Niners will be hurting a bit, but the loss is one that is somewhat expected due to the Hawks huge homefield advantage. If the Hawks wipe out the Niners again, then Harbaugh will be the one suddenly on the defensive regarding how his team matches up with their NFC West rivals.

Besides, Kappy has yet to beat the Hawks. Alex Smith got the win last year, and Russell Wilson had a fairly pedestrian night. Smith has since left, and Wilson has exploded since that 13-6 Niner win last October.

Game 2 of the pretty rough 5 game start to this season is coming to you (like a lot of Niner games this year) in prime time, Sunday Night. I guess this means I need to tape Breaking Bad. Anyhow, Seattle escaped from the steaming cauldron that is Carolina in September with a fugly win punctuated by the Panthers beating the Seahawks all over the field. Marshawn Lynch had an uncharacteristically quiet day. Gaining only 43 yards. The Seattle run game was shut down. Russell Wilson passed for 320, but only scored once as he fumbled on the Carolina 18 right before the close of the 1st half to kill their drive and close the half down 7-3. The killer turnover however goes to DeAngelo Williams, who had a sweet 16 yard run down to the Seahawk 8 yard line ruined by a fumble. This was with 5+ minutes left, and would have put Carolina up 14-12, and could have provided the margin of victory.

Anyhow, Seattle looked like a team tired from travel, and playing in a hostile, hot, sweaty, and humid environment. Much like the last time these two teams met. The 49ers were coming off a hugely emotional win near Rhode Island on a Monday night, one where the Niners squandered a 31-10 lead, only to regain the lead in the closing minutes for a 41-34 win. Lost in the amazing come-from-ahead victory was the fact that the defense was on the field for 65 plays in the 2nd half! The Niners offense stalled out for nearly all the 2nd half as NE closed the gap. Justin Smith also suffered a torn triceps early in the 2nd half to slow down the defense even more. So, they travel to Seattle on a short week, battered bruised, and spent. And proceed to get slaughtered like the proverbial lamb to the uh, slaughter.

I think we can throw the results from both these games out. One can easily imagine that the Seahawks overlooked Carolina in their zeal to avenge whatever Pete the cheat is spewing in his locker room to his players. Lots of bulletin board fodder during the offseason for this game as well. Pete’s team getting busted for PED use, St. Jimmy’s reaction to that. Seattle’s reaction to THAT. Talk of strangling, cheating, drinking, fighting and the usual banter. Fortunately, the game is nigh, and the talk seems to be down to barely a whisper as I’m sure both coaches put a gag order on players talking to the media. Well, the only talk recently is the bet between Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick regarding their eyebrows. As in, the loser shaves one of their eyebrows off. Weird? Sure. Kappy did say this regarding the wipeout last year: “We’re going up there to prove that’s not who we are.” So, which is it? Seattle’s run offense is suddenly kaput? The Niners run offense? Neither did much of anything their 1st games. the Niner defense didn’t give very much pressure to Aaron Rodgers, and he isn’t reminding anyone of Michael Vick. Although he does move well (pretty fly for a white guy). Wilson? He threw the ball all over the place but didn’t score near enough. Kappy merely had the best game of his life. 400+, 3 TDs, 0 picks. Things not seen since, *ahem* Joe Montana roamed the loam of the Stick.

Hard to make anything of these teams as they are so close to the preseason, and both looked inept in certain phases. You have to think, though, that both coaches have this game as a marker. Both these teams are seen as bona fide Super Bowl contenders. Both want to make the early statement. Both want to win the NFC West. The good news for the 49ers is that the early game is in Seattle, the December 8th game is in SF. My thought is these guys merely cancel each other out. Seattle wins a squeaker 21-20, and we return the favor by beating the shit out of them at home. I rarely pick agaisnt the Niners, but this time around, I think the fact that the 49ers didn’t play their starters much in the preseason comes back to haunt them with false starts, delay-of-game penalties, and a costly turnover.

From the look of it, the Green Bay Packers played this game is if it was their Super Bowl. Kinda Like NASCAR in that Daytona is the first, and the biggest, race of the year. Well, sorry Green Bay, you lost 34-28. To prepare for this matchup, their first game since the last beat-down handed to them by the 49ers, Green Bay sent their coaching staff to Texas A&M to learn how to stop the read-option, they consulted with the coach of the Hawaii Warriors, who beat Kappy at UNR in 2010, and Clay Matthews had Kappy on his mind all offseason, yapping to anyone that would listen that he would “hit Kaepernic early and hit him often.”

Well, a funny thing happened to the game plan. Green Bay did an awesome job stopping the run. Well, they gave up 90 yards on the ground. A far cry from the 323 yard rushing the Niners laid on them in the playoffs last year (181 from Kappy, 119 from Gore for a tidy 3 hundy). Unfortunately for the Packers, they negelected to stop Kaepernick and newly acquired Anquan Boldin. Kaepernick put up 412 yards through the air, and Boldin had 208 of those on 13 catches. VD also pitched in with 98 on 6 catches, and 2 TDs. There’s a lot of whining from the Packers fans that it would have been different without 2 of their DBs Casey Heyward and Morgan Burnett in there. There’s also a lot of whining about the comments Kaepernick made after the game regarding intimidation. “I’m not worried about what people are saying. If intimidation is your game plan, I hope you have a better one.” I love it. Matthews yapped all offseason about how he would hit Kaepernick. Well, he had to resort to a cheap shot to do it. When Joe Staley grabbed sister golden hair, he threw 2 punches at Staley. This resulted in (!) offsetting penalties. Which the refs later said should have led to the play standing, and as a result lead to a 4th down.

In my interpretation of the rules, the original hit by cheese-dick was not a dead-ball foul, but a continuation play. That immediately should have given the 49ers 1st and goal. The skirmish afterwards is where the offsetting aspect comes into play. If the rules are interpreted as they (wrongly) said yesterday, then it is OK to head hunt the opposition QB as long as you get a retaliation fight. Then the penalties offset, instead of protecting the QB against unwarranted cheap shots.

Anyhow, back to the game. Worrying to me was the lack of pass rush that the defense generated. The 2 sacks were pretty weak ass tumbles by Rodgers, and he had way too much time to sit back was wait for Jordy Nelson to come free. It’s hard to fault the DBs for their efforts too much because of the lack of pressure, and Eric Reid looked like a very solid safety in his debut, but the tackling by the group as a whole was terrible. Cox missed what should have been a minimal gain and let it go for a 12 yard score, and Asomugha looked overmatched at various points in the game, but did make a nice play to close it out. The run game was pretty much shut down, but then again, that was Green Bay’s prime directive. Stop the run. They did, but they couldn’t stop the pass. All in all, a good day for the home team. Even if they looked at times like they were still in preseason mode.

The quest for 6 starts today in the final opening day at the venerable crumbledone, AKA Candlestick Park. Funny, I remember the opening season at the Stick back in 1971. It was an astroturf monstrosity back then, which was akin to playing on the concrete in the parking lot. Players routinely broke legs and separated shoulders on that field, and I seem to remember Jim Lash shattering both his elbows in his short and ill-fated time with the 49ers. The Joe Thomas legacy, shitty as it is can only praised for putting the natural grass back into the Stick. To supposedly ease the stress on a fading OJ Simpsons knees. Simpson did little as a Niner, but at least he got the carpet out . . .

Anyhow, will the 2013 season be the lucky one for these Niners? Lots of people think so, but the word out of Vegas is that the Broncos are the odds-on favorites to win it all. At least that’s what the numbers were a couple days ago. Crazy. I think if the Niners had faced Denver last year instead of Balt it wouldn’t have been close. Sour grapes? Maybe, but the future is now. The Niners play 4 playoff teams in their first 5 games, and the 5th team is one they couldn’t quite figure out in the Rams. The early sledding is rough, and game one is against a team that was embarrassed badly by the Niners in the playoffs. The Packers. I hate to be overconfident, but I think we should win this one fairly handily. The Pack has geeked and overgeeked themselves silly for months over the read-option. Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy sent his entire staff to visit with Kevin Sumlin’s staff at Texas A&M to learn the read-option. I think we may use it, but not much at all. I think Roman and Harbaugh expect the Packers to overreact to the read-option, and will shadow Kappy. Either with an LB or a safety. Maybe they’ll even switch them up. The Niners can exploit this throwing behind the linebackers and getting behind the shadow over the middle. A good spot for VD and VM.

Hey, this’ll cause to brain usage. I think.

Anyhow, couple things here, since Dennis jumped the gun. As usual. Who do you guys pick to win their respective divisions (and I promise not to pick the Raiders in the AFC West), and what do you think the 49ers record will be this year?

Dennis I think has said 9-7. With fans like this. . . .

I may or may not get a game day thread up on Sunday, so this may have to do . . .

The 2013 football season is finally upon us. After months of dreary baseball to keep us somewhat busy, and the occasional murder or drug/dui/ arrest, or the fun task of opening a beer by using someone else’s head as a bottle opener, the bullets start (figuratively) flying for real tomorrow night. Week 1 is a real burn burner what with the Broncos facing the Baltimores after the Broncos completely blew their shot to advance in the playoffs last year by forgetting how to cover deep. Manning gets his shot at revenge and gets his last gasp at reaching the Super Bowl.

Bengals/Bears looks like fun, as does the hype-fest of the NY Giants facing the re-un-invented Dallas Cowboys. Falcons/Saints looks to be a thriller, as does the Titans/Steelers matchup. But the game of all games for week 1 is the Packers vs the 49ers. The Pack isn’t used to getting beat 2 times in a row by anyone, let alone the resurgent 49ers. They Pack had been something like 18-1 vs the Red and Gold in recent history, and they didn’t expect this type of resistance. Aaron Rodgers had a few daemons involved in his playoff game here last year, as it marked the first time he had stepped onto the Candlestick turf as the starting QB for the Packers, his being snubbed all those years ago by the organization he grew up idolizing, and the fact the Niners had beaten them at home pretty easily to start the season.

Frankly, I’m not that worried about Green Bay. I think we can do what we’ve done these last couple games, and that’s to pressure Rodgers, force mistakes, and get the 3-and-outs. I also think, since we got into their heads so badly in the playoffs last year, we go away from the read-option offense. I think GB will overreact to how we beat them last year. To further this thought, I think we go away from the read-option almost completely this season. Sure, we may use it, but sparingly. That diamond formation I think will also be a thing of the past. Teams will be keying on that, and shadowing Kappy, so it basically takes a player out of the defenses we face. This can be used to our advantage. And, as apparently we were ‘predictable’ in our formations and play calling (per Craig Dahl), Eric Mangini, defensive guru, was brought in to unscheme us from predictability. To this end, I think we’ll look different offensively. This doesn’t mean suddenly we’re the Daryl Lamonica mad-bomber team of the 60s. Just that the trickeration comes out of formations, not read-option. We’ll run a little pistol, and the usual shotgun and Kappy behind center, but I foresee a more straighforward offense of short to mid-range passes, full use of the tight ends, and the usual power running game. As in the past, 3rd down efficiency plays a large part in how this offense moves. Key to this are the wide receivers. If the WRs can get separation, and consistently get open (and Kappy finds them), then this increases the chance of VD being able to exploit the middle of the field. If our WRs are ineffective, then VD can (and has been in the past) neutralized with double coverage. This is especially telling in the red zone, where VD had little success last year.

Defensively, the team to me looks a little bit stronger. Justin Smith is back to full health, and we have a little more depth than before. I think the defensive backfield is a big question heading into the season, but I think Eric Reid already has a leg up on Dashon Goldson. Reid has (yeah, it’s preseason) been in the proper place and made all the plays he’s supposed to make. He’s not the highlight reel hitter that Goldson is, but he’s a solid tackler who covers well. He didn’t get tested too much deep, but the times they tried, he was there step for step with the WR. Glenn Dorsey should provide some needed depth, but the D line is younger, healthier, and stronger with Ian Williams taking Soap’s place, and Dorsey providing back up. . My only caveat in that regard is to the status of the draft picks Tank Carradine and Quintin Dial. Both are on the Reserve/Non-football injury list. This means both are eligible to come off the list in 6 weeks and play. Reading between the lines of Harbaugh’s infrequesnt references to those guys, it looks like Tank stands a pretty good chance of being ready by week 7. He may just get the extra couple games off to take advantage of the bye week in week 9, and hit the field week 10 at home against the Panthers. Dial’s turf toe? No idea, but since they didn’t stash him on the IR I’d think they expect him to play this year.

Game on!