San Francisco 49ers Forever

Well, this is down time. Unless you enjoyed A) the Giants getting their World Series Championship rings, raise the chamipnship banner, and see Buster get his hardware (NL MVP and Silver Sluggger awards (yay!)), and then B) watching St Louis crush them 14-3 on their way to taking 2 of 3 in the Giants home-opening series (ha ha, StL still blew the NLCS. Giants are the defending champs!).

Anyhow, most of the free agants have ben unfreed, moves have been moved, the player shuffles have been shuffled, and new coaching staffs have conveniently installed their scapegoats for the upcoming season. The draft is the next big event on the horizon. As usual, the consensus is that there’s no consensus regarding the 49ers. People have the Niners trading up for a bona fide safety lock in Brenda Vaccaro, trading up for a stud DT in say, Sheldon Richardson or Sylvester Williams; trading out of the 1st round (not sure why unless we get players); or merely waiting to see who’s left as the draft progresses, and still pick up guys like DT Margus Hunt and S Jonathan Cyprien. Dark horses like WR Keenan Allen from Cal get bandied about, as well as TEs like Zach Ertz and Tyler Eifert. The Niners ertainly have flexibility with these 2 picks so close to eachother, and teams despeate for someone could easily give the Niners an additional pick close to their spot anyway, and get their guy plus a pick. Curiouser and curiouser.

Frankly, I have no clue. I’ve been fairly good at figuring out needs at least, but I sure didn’t pick the last 2 first rounders in Aldon Smith and AJ Jenkins. 2010 was easy as the Niners NEEDED O line help at all costs, and drafted 2 guys (almost) back to back in Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati. I think trading back is out (5% chance), trading up is about a 20% chance, and standing pat to wait and see what is available is likely (75%) their strategy. Who they get at 31 and 34 is a mystery as well, but those 2 I mention above are likely. If not those guys, then guys that are in those positions. The farther down we go, the harder it gets to even guess as to what they do.

That all being said, I think the Niners go:

31 – S (Cyprien) – Big guy, hybrid like Baalke digs
34 – DL (Magnus Von Magnus) – Big, fast, physical, 26 tho
63 – CB (Blidi Wreh-Wilson) – Tall tough corner. Fast.
74 – WR (Da’Rick Rogers) – Big, strong, hard to tackle
93 – DE (Cornelius Washington) – Long lanky under-the-radar guy. Sound familiar?
128 – C (Brian Schwenke) – Schwing! Cal guy. Center.
131 – S (Honey Badger) – If he’s here, he’s worth the risk.
157 – RB (Lattimore) – Why not? Much like Frank Gore, a health risk that paid off greatly. He can wait on the bench a season.

Well, not really. This played out pretty much like some of us thought it would. They would target depth at the defensive line (Glenn Dorsey), wide receiver (traded for Antuan Bouldin), defensive backfield (the much-maligned Craig Dahl and Nnamdhi Asumouaga), and quaerterback (traded for Colt McCoy). Splashy? No. Well, the trade was a pretty big deal. Needed? Most definitely.

I’ve gone over how Seattle has done well this offseason. AZ? Well, hitching their cart to one Casron Palmer looks to be a disaster in the making. He’s as mobile as a tree, and looks to fall down like one about 60 times this year. Timberrrrrrrrrr! So far they’ve cut Kevin Kolb, Adrian Wilson, Beanie Wells, William Gay, Early Doucet and Kerry Rhodes. They’v signed Rashard Mendenhall, QB Drew Stanton, CBs Jerraud Powers and Antoine Cason, LB Lorenzo Alexander, and DE Matt Shaughnessy. In other words, no line hellp for a line that has been aten in recent years like a red-headed, uh, Cardinal. I guess they will draft help up front and pray it works.

The Rams? The team with the best divisional record last year? Well, they’ve lost perennial thorns in the Niners side in Stephen Jackson and Danny Amendola. Jackson was hurt too much, and was going to be ($7 mill) costly. Amendola got a deal and split for NE. Craig Dahl, Mr. Super Safety, came west to SF. They did sign OT Jake Long, TE Jared Cook, CB Courtland Finnegan, and a few others, but they look to improve in the draft as well. I think overall they hurt themselves, butr they had little choice with Jackson and Amendola.

As it stands, the Niners still have 13 picks in the draft, so to even try to guess how the draft goes would be next to impossible. I seriously don’t think the Niners draft more than 8 guys, so there looks to be a boatload of wheeling and dealing on Trent’s part.

Is s a bad dream? A nightmare? A huge cosmic joke? Yeah, I’ll take that one. A couple days ago, Tony Romo became the 4th highest player in the NFL by signing a 6 year, $108 million contract. Here are the (*hyuk*) details:

The deal contains $55 million in guarantees, including a $25 million signing bonus. Romo’s $1.5 million 2013 base salary and $13.5 million 2014 base salary are fully guaranteed. $15 million of his $17 million 2015 base salary is guaranteed for injury. $7.5 million becomes fully guaranteed on the third day of the 2014 league year (mid-March 2014). The remaining $7.5 million of the injury guaranteed $15 million is fully guaranteed on the third day of the 2015 league year (mid-March 2015). He has unguaranteed $8.5 million, $14 million, $19.5 million and $20.5 million base salaries in his 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 contract years.

Uh, seriously? Romo has ‘led’ the vastly talented Cowboys to the playoffs 3 times in his 8 seasons at the helm of Good Ship Nose Candy-land. Of those trips, he’s gone 1-3. Stellar. Sure, you can’t solely blame the Cowboys travails on one guy, but he so effortlessly plants the target squarely on his ass by dating celebrities, donning them in pink Romo jersies, and choking down the stretch of so many games, and so many seasons.

In other words, he’s Mr. September. To whit:

• In 2005, Dallas started 7-3 on a playoff roll. They finished the season 2-4 and missed the playoffs.
• In 2006, huzzah! Playoff! Dallas cemented their spot in the post season by going 1-3 after their 8-4 start, thus losing homefield advantage, and eventually Tony’s first playoff game in Seattle when he muffed the snap on a chip shot field goal, then came up juuuuuuuuuuuuuust short on trying to advance his screw-up.
• 2007? 12-1 start, 1-2 finish. This time with home field advantage on their side, they fought the NY Giants tough, and had a 1st down at the Giants 25 with  0:31 left in the game, down 21-17. Money time? Uh, choke time. Ex-49er RW McQuarters picked him off to end the game.
• 2008? Despite missing 3 games, he led the Cowboys to a 7-3 record (they went 1-2 under Rob Johnson) only to crash and burn their way out of the playoffs by going 1-3. Particularly funny was the ‘must win’ game vs the Eagles to close the season. Win, and they are in. Lose, and they are again labelled chokers. Well, a 44-6 loss labelled them something else. Gutless, heartless, and vain. Basically a fantasy team.
• 2009, their best year, and Romo’s as well, saw Dallas go 11-5 and hit the playoffs on a roll, closing the season winning 3 straight. And, huzzah, a playoff win over those pesky Eagles, 34-14. Unfortunately, Romo ran into Brett Favre. He also stumbled, fumbled, and crumbled his way to a 34-3 loss.
• 2010 was as hard a fall as Romo’s had, and frankly I thought was the end of his tenure in Dallas. After going 1-5 to start the season, Romo went down with a broken collarbone. Per usual, he put up great numbers, but killed chances late in games by throwing costly interceptions.
• 2011? 7-4 to start,  1-4 to worm themselves out of the playoffs.
• 2012? 8-6 to start the season. 0-2 to once again watch the playoffs from the comfort of Valley Ranch, TX.

All the while, Jerry Jenius has built a zillion dollar boondoggle stadium, hired and fired all number of players, coaches, assistants, waterboys, gurus, consultants, and soothsayers, all for naught.  That is, except for Tomy Romo. Or his inestimable GM, one Jerry Jerkoff. These guys are tied to the hip, much  like the 49ers were inexorably tied to Alex Smith. The funny thing is, Alex looks to become something of a savior in KC. After both came into the league in 2005, Romo has done much less with a ton more talent and coaching than Alex Smith ever had. Shit, Smith is 1-1 in the playoffs. Romo looks to be the latest in a long line of headline grabbing, self-promoting, but eventually vacuous Dallas ‘talents’ that  falls short. Hello, T.O.!!

So, yeah, extend him for 6 years. Brilliant. Solidify Dallas’ status as a flashy yet in the end gutless, heartless team full of headline-grabbing chracters keep the grist mill turning.

Well, the beat goes on. Starting with Alex Smith and the Kansas City Chefs, the quarterback shuffle is still rumbling around the nascent 2013 NFL football calendar. Word out of the desert is the AZ Cardinals, apparently desperate for anything remotely resembling an NFL quarterback, traded for (!) the services of one Carson Palmer. You know, the guy who took the Raiders to the stellar 4-12  record, and he of the 4,000 yards, and 22/14 TDs to INTs (with 7 fumbles thrown in). Actually, his numbers aren’t as bad as I thought. But still, those numbers look to fall dramatically with the Cards being much less good at pass pro than even the Raiders.

Kevin Kolb, the mega-paid future-great-has-been did his own shuffle off to Buffalo. I guess we’ll find out if the AZ climate was detrimental for QB health and he flourishes in the cold confines of northern New York, or if his suckiness follows him like a warm breeze off the desert. So, in retaliation for losing Palmer, the Oakland Prince Valiants have apparently traded for the services of Matt Flynn. He of the miniscule-starts-but-gaudy-numbers ilk (hello Kevin Kolb, Matt Cassell, etc.).

Matt Cassell, another one of the great-backups-on playoff-teams-that-flamed-out-as-the-prospective-savior-somewhere-else, was of course replaced by blog-vortex himself, Alex Smith. Cassell led the Chefs to the playoffs at least before sliding into inconsistency and nediocrity. With Smith in, Cassell has signed with Minnesota to nominally back up Mr Christian Ponder, another inconsistent young QB. Baffling, as both are the same guy, really. Chase Daniel, Drew Brees’ ex-backup in the big easy, will now back up Alex.

Ryan Fiztpatrick, of Buffalo Bills (in)fame(y), put up pretty good numbers but was deemed expendable as they didn’t think he was the “future of the team” QB. Hence the Kolb deal. Fitzpatrick meanwhile is going to the Titans to provide mentoring for yet another inconsistent young QB in Jake Locker. Locker also has the propensity to get hurt, so Fitz will get some Starts, more than likely.  Locker of course is at his own make-or-break stage, so they could very well go through this again next year.

Other moves? Well, Philly still hasn’t named a starter, but the competition between Mutt Vick and now Dennis Dixon (he of new HC Chip Kelly-Oregon fame), looks to be pretty much a one-sided dog fight, with Vick winning. Ex-Niner Josh Johnson signed with the Bengals to back up Ginger.

This looks to be the last of the QB shuffle, and we haven’t even reached the draft. The Jets and Cleveland have been eerily quiet unless you count the Jets signing David Garrard as anything more than a hope and a prayer), but  they are the last of the teams I picked in January to be in the hunt for a QB. There have been a lot of back up moves, but who really cares that Gradkowski is backing up Big Worthlessberger, or that Matt Hasselbeck is now backing up Andrew Luck?

I don’t. But when does Tim Tebow get cut from the Jets?

Much as I hate to admit it, and and good as the 49ers are before the upcoming draft, Seattle is doing a a lot to strengthen their own ship after their near-epic playoff comeback vs Atlanta last year. They’ve already added Percy Harvin, albeit at a heavy cost (Sea’s 1st pick, 25th overall, a 7th round pick, and a 3rd round pick next year) for a possible prima-donna and they added two of the more coveted pass rushers out there in Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett. In other words, not nearly as much thrash around their roster as there is around the Niners, and they helped themselves out pretty well. The only hitch being the loss of draft picks GM John Schnieder loves so much. Seattle still has 8 picks in the draft, but may be looking to add some picks very sooon.

Word now out of Seattle is that they are looking at offers for Matt Flynn, the $20 million backup who was signed to be the starter, but was passed like a Pinto in the slow lane by Russell Wilson, the rookie phenom out of Wisconsin. The suitors for Matt’s fairly unproven services would likely be Jacksonville, Oakland, NYJ, and Buffalo. Jax must be the most enticing for Seattle as Jax has the 3rd overall pick in the upcoming draft, and has high picks in every round. Oakland can’t offer shit as they traded every pick in the foreseeable future for Carson Palmer and Terrelle whatshisface Pryor. Palmer doesn’t want to restructure his ludicrous deal, so the Raiders may just cut his ass.  The Jets are in ‘anyone-but-Sanchez’ mode, so they could pull the trigger on a deal, salary cap hell notwithstanding. Buff? They recently jettisoned Ryan Fitzpatrick and need someone.

You have to wonder how desperate a team like Jacksonville would be to sign a QB. They are in a situation much like KC was with Alex. They saw a guy who they think is worthy, and took their shot. Whether Jax would give up a 1st round choice (too much, I’d think) to sign  a guy who has a very small track record remains to be seen, but I’m sure Seattle wouldn’t mind getting something like the Niners got for Alex.  A 2nd round pick and a 4th, or something for next year.

For what this is all worth, it at least extends the long-standing competition between Jim (what, me worry?) Harbaugh and Pistol Pete Carroll.  These guys have been adversaries since their Pac-10 days, and this feud looks to be front and center in the NFL landscape for years to come. 2013 certainly should be an entertaining one from a football standpoint. The Niners and Seahawks looks to be the newest baddest rivalry going.

For all the headiness of the current situation and the midas touch that seems to be hovering over Trent Baalke and the front office, it wasn’t very long ago that the team seemed to be in a world of disarray. Flash back to waaaaay long ago in time. Like 2 years ago. The sour stench that was Mike Singletary still permeated the office of 4949 Centennial Blvd. The misdirected lines of communication were still a worry, and Trent Baalke’s draft in 2010 had Singletary’s imprint on it as well.  Baalke insisted on improving the line with the Niners 2 first round picks in Mike Iupati and Anthony Davis, but Sing insistend on Taylor Mays, a washout as a safety now relegated to ST duties. Baalke certainly has paid his dues with the Niners, coming in with Mike Nolan in 2005, and running the western scouting region before being promoted to Director of Player Personnel, and then VP of PP, and finally on to his current GM spot. His 2011 draft was fairly awesome in that the Niners got better in the pass rush in one fell swoop, found their QB of the future, and strengthened their depth at OL and RB.

Last year’s draft wasn’t as immediate  a success, but LMJ was a very solid addition.  AJ Jenkins is searching for the path out of the dog house, Fleming was hurt on day one of camp last year, Looney shows promise, Robinson is sticking around, and Cam Johnson still could be a diamond in the rough. Only Jason Slowey has been jettisoned from the 2012 draft. This year? Well, the mouths are watering, and the blog-o-mill is in a frenzy trying to figure out how this draft will proceed, seeing as the Niners have 14 picks, and likely not enough rookie cap money to sign everyone. It’s pretty much a guarantee that draft day (happy birthday to me) will be filled with fireworks and plenty pf wheeling and dealing.

As usual I lost my train of thought, but there you have it. This was supposed to be about how despite the fact that the only change between the front office ineptitude up to and including 2010 and the front office golden-ness in 2011 and beyond was Jim Harbaugh, how did the rest of the front office evole into the geniuses that they currently are? I said it then, and I’ll say it now. For all the front office hierarchy, the team in 2010 was nominally Mike Singletary’s. Baalke was not (and won’t be) the big honcho type that, say a Bobby Beathard was, AJ Smith of the Chargers, or even Ozzie Newsome of the Ravens is. These guys are heavy hitters and don’t really subsume to the head coach like Baalke has. In Singletary’s case, this was bad news. Now that Harbaugh is in charge, this is very good news. Even the spreadsheet guy, Paraage Marathe has shown his value under the new regime by doing very well in keeping and signing important players. Granted, he was under my microscope as being a problem in years past, but it’s all great now.

Oh, well. In a move that has been a long time coming, the Niners lost Teg Ginn to the Carolina Panthers. The guy was both infuriating, breathtaking, ridiculous, and more than likely the missing piece in the 2011 season, as shown by the KW disaster in the NFCC playoff game. Ginn came into the NFL with Miami as the 9th pick in the 2007 draft amid high hopes and blazing speed.

Unfortunately for him, the expectations were never met. He dropped way too many passes, and lost his job as a WR midway through the 2009 season with Miami. After that season, he was traded to the Niners. Even though the Niners never had much at WR, he was usually buried on the depth chart as the 3rd WR. He was however, effective as a KR/PR. Most notably, opening day 2011, where he put away the Seattle Seahawks singlehandedly by returning a kickoff 102 yards, and a punt for 59 yards (within a minute of each other) to seal the win. And we don;t need to re-hash the 2011 NFCCG.

Other than that, he became more Allan Rossum-like last year as he avoided contact, and never quite clicked as a WR.  If anyone didn’t see this one coming, they are legally blind. With LMJ looking to be the KR now, and the injury to KW still a big question mark, the Niners don’t really have anyone to fill the PR spot, but certainly Ginn’s time was done in SF. I’ll be real curious to see how he does in Carolina.

Other than that, the Niners signed Richard (Match Game) Dawson to a one-year deal as the New Old kicker for the Niners. Props go to AK for calling this moments before it actually happened. They shored up their special teams some by getting local kid (Natomas High, Sacto) Marlon Moore, a speedy gunner and hard hitter, who is also a WR. Again, these aren’t earthshaking moves, but they should hopefully shore up the special teams unit, which regressed a lot last year.

Still waiting for another safety to get signed. You have to wonder, now that the cream of the free agents are gone, if the go after Sensabaugh or Kerry Rhodes. Both are 30, and could likely be had for pretty cheap 2-3 year deals. It’s either that, or we’re left with Nate the Late Clements, or Michael (I like to) Huff. . .

Trent Baalke seems to be back in familiar territory. The blogospheres are erupting with “Aaaak, the Niners are losing players  and replacing them with stick figures!!” Yeah, they’ve lost Goldson, Soap, RJF, and replaced them with Craig Dahlly Dagger, perennial underachiever Glenn (don;t call me Tommy) Dorsey, and Dan (Reputa the beauta) Skuta, but this smacks of a couple years ago when the Niners watched as teams like Philly blew their collective wads signing can’t miss guys like Nnamdi Asomuaga, Mike Vick, and countless others. Baalke quietly signed guys like Carlos Rogers, Donte Whitner, Jonathan Goodwin, and David (used to be green) Akers as the feeding frenzy slowed down. They did trade for Anquan Bouldin as well. At this point I think the Niners sign one more semi-big name FA safety before heading off to the draft in April.

Baalke also nailed that 2011 draft to the tune of 5 starters and a bunch of contributors, including Aldon Smith, Kendall Hunter, Bruce Miller, and Chris (Mr. Diversity) Culliver. Not to mention our starting QB. The 2012 draft was a little less impactful, but the Niners did get solid backup LMJ, line depth in Joe Looney, and the big ??? that is AJ Jenkins. Free agent wise last year, the Niners netted Mario Manningham, and erstwhile semi-malcontent Rany Moss. Nothing spectacular, but the team was (*sob*) 6 yards from winning it all.

Faast forward to today, and the team is poised for a huge haul in the draft. They currently have 14 picks. 3 compensatory ones that they must use, and 11 to burn any way they see fit. Only one (a sixth rounder) went to Baltimore for Bouldin, and it appears that the Niners are already working to extend his deal to minimize the cap impact. Good move for a very tough WR.

We all know the needs going into the draft. A couple of big bodies up front, a safety or two who can replace Goldson and Whitner, speed at the WR spot, a TE with decent hands,  and  kicker. I think the Niners could very easily sign a FA safety and a FA TE. A kicker is possible as well. If they do that, then they can heavily target their holes with their multiple choices. Bundle them to trade up and position some draft spots for next year.

So, far the Niners are losing guys faster than they are gaining them, but there’s not much fretting yet. Goldson is finally able to put food on the table for his family by signing a $41 mill deal with Tampa, Walker signed with the Tit’ns, Soap to the Iggles, RJF to the Dolts (3/$22 mill? Dorsey’s a deal as the swap).  The guys apparently on the radar are Nnamdi Asomoaga (?) LaRon Landry, Charles Woodson, and Ed Reed. They are likely going to get one of these guys to replace Goldson, so Landry? He’s the youngest. I don’t know.

Louis Delmas is coming to town, but I’m not sure the Niners are ready to back up the truck for him. He’s a stud, though he’s injured too much. It would be a risk, but Reed and Woodson are old, Landry is another health risk, but could be had for relatively cheap. Sensabaugh’s better in coverage than Goldson, Bernard Pollard of the Ravens is Goldson’s clone.

I guess I’d cross my fingers and go with Delmas. He’s great in coverage. And I just found out Landry’s gone. So, Delmas it is.

BTW, nuckfut’s been banned.

Dashon Goldson’s grandmother apparently is weighing in on her grandson’s contract impasse with the 49ers.

Dashon Goldson ‏@thehawk38“@msrosecooking: @sf49ers showing no loyalty to my baby, @thehawk38 (Dashon Goldson ). Any team will be lucky to get him.”>Tell em grandma!

Haven’t we travelled this road before? Goldson bid his twitter goodbyes 2 years ago to us forgiving and unforgiving fans, as Dashon struck out to find his pot of gold. Unfortunately for him, the gold turned out to be brass, and he came back and meekly signed a 1 year 2 million dollar deal after turning down his 5 year/$25 mill deal that set him on the road to perdition anyway. After a couple pro-bowl seasons, and once again feeling his oats, Dashon wants something in the range of the Tim (?) Waddell (I know, he’s the weird-ass Olympic runner) deal, and 5 years, $40 million.

Uh, no. It ain’t gonna happen Dashon. Some people think he’s a top 5 safety.Yes he has his moments of being a disruptive force, but he also has a lot of brain-dead ones as well. Bad penalties, jumping routes, and the oft-occurring getting burned deep. The playoffs were fairly galling, but that was a system wide failure of not enough pressure, and the entire DB corps getting toasted.

The 49ers have already come out and said they would not franchise him. Not too surprising as that would force the Niners to pay him $7.1 mill. It also leads me to believe that if they won;t franchise him for $7, they won’t offer him a long term deal for $8 / year.  The 49ers are likely in the 5/30 range. A little rich for my blood, but I suppose it would do. The question is, does Dashon really think someone will pay him more than that? Frankly, the Niners could very well say we got the same deal from 2 years ago, skippy 5/25. Take it or hit the road, Jack.  Harsh? Sure. Mean? Yeah, I guess. Know what? Tough shit. Dashon isn’t Patrick Willis. Or NaVorro Bowman.  He’s replaceable. Moreso than those guys. And, like Baalke said, we can’t pay everyone. Plus, with all their leverage in this upcoming FA period and draft, they have about 20 different options to choose from.

So, the same thing will happen that happened two years ago. Dashon finds a lukewarm market (watered down even more by the rookie cap, which deflates a lot of the FA deals) and few suitors. If he’s lucky, the Niners will give him a 3/18 deal. And he’ll take it.