To kill the jinx, we must acknowledge it. It what must be some kind of twist of fate, the Niners are facing the Double Whammy of jinxes this weekend. EVERYONE knows about the Sports Illustrated cover jinx. And sure enough, there he is, big as life, Colin Kaepernick on the cover of SI this week. Holy . . . indeed. When was the last time the Niners were on the cover of SI? You guessed it. Right before last year’s NFC Champiomship game against the New York Giants. And we all know how that turned out.
The other hobgoblin of doom is the season-long pattern of w-w-l; w-w-l; w-w-t; w-w-l; w-w-l; w-w-l; w-w-??? 18 games into this season, and the pattern goes on. Uncanny consistency in being inconsistent. Every 2 game winning streak was followed by the NFL wonks declaring that the Niners are the best team in the NFL. Whereas they would puke on their shoes and get knocked down a peg or 3. Some losses were to good teams (Giants, Minn), some to bad (StL), and some were ugly (Seattle).
I don’t hold much truck in the fact that my actions determine the fate of my team (superstitions being something I left behind me a while ago), but this may be the time to bring extra mojo to the table. The 49ers are 5-8 in NFC Championship games, and bring a 1-5 record in their last 6 playoff road games. Pish posh you say? Ancient history? Well, sure. But there sure seems to be a boatload of kharmic baggage to overcome in this game. So, dig out that old ticket stub, find that 26 year old t-shirt that brough you good luck in the 1994 Super Bowl game, and hope to hell these patterns don’t repeat themselves. Because as we all know, those who do not remember the past are doomed to repeat it.
Forty Niners Forever 
From 12th on the last thread. Good stuff . . .
12th man says:
January 15, 2013 at 9:45 pm
For the gamblers amongst us or just for fun…
http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Championship-game-early-action-report.html
Thanks Man. Love the Kap bio!
Love the cover…Jimbo surely yelling.out Holy Shit!!!!
He’s hit the big Gold strike with Kappy!!!
The “L” in the WWL pattern has always followed a prime time ass kicking. From Barrows:
” The national attention and praise the 49ers are getting this year fits a pattern, and it’s not a good one for San Francisco. It seems that whenever the 49ers have won a momentous, prime-time game this year – Detroit, at Arizona, at New England – they’ve received an avalanche of kudos and have jumped to the top of everyone’s power ranking (which, by the way, are about as useless as mock drafts).”
That said, I think patterns like this and “jinxes” etc, are streaks waiting to be broken. Nothing lasts forever. I do think the Niners play better playing the “no respect” card — but a lot of teams have trouble with success. In this NFCCG, their hunger and talent will break this streak. But I still see it close. When can I start drinking?
Well, the Niners beat the Lions after beating the Packers . . . and they beat NO after beating Chicago on Monday night. that ain;t really true.
Going into this game, my hope is that Nolan and Co. overplay the Kappy running factor. They can use an LB as a spy while VD goes deep middle.
I see the Niners taking big advantage of the overreaction by Atlanta.
Kaep needs to be patient, orchestrating slow, methodical drives. He’ll see zone, nickle and dime coverages against Atlanta that will require touch, patience and the ability to let the running backs win the game.
Nolan will also expect a lot of Gore up the middle. So use LMJ on the edges to loosen that shit up.
If they give Moss the big cushion, throw short outs to the first down marker until they stop.
Make the safety deep choose: cover Crabs on the deep fly, or VD on the post. Heads I win, tails you lose.
The Offensive line needs to manhandle their D-line the way did to the Packers. Take them out of their game, get a lead, silence the crowd.
Chip Kelly changed his mind, he is now the Eagles HC.
Yeah I caught that Kevin..And.the.Dumass Bears named.Marc Trestman their Coach.LOL
When he was.with.the Niners back in the.days,and after they were bounced in a.playoff game,Eddie D couldnt wait.to call a press conference and tell Trestman…”YOUR GONE”
Yeah, but Kelly is in a win, win situation, if he bombs in the NFL some College will pick him up, kinda like that Seattle Coach….whats his name?? anyway then Kelly can come back to the NFL later.
Carroll ain’t bombing in the NFL.
Carroll bombed in New York and New England . . . give him time.
Carroll was just named “NFC Coach of the Year.” Carroll didn’t bomb with the Patriots. Go back and look at Carroll in New England. Carroll did well and Bob Kraft said he was torn about firing Carroll and the reason Carroll was fired was beyond Carroll’s control (which could just be a classy move). Carroll coached the Patriots for three years and for two years he made the playoffs. Carroll then went out and built up USC and won championships. And I think, if I’m not mistaken, Carroll was our D coordinator when the 49ers won the Super Bowl … but my memory is going. It’s the dementia. You and I, Chuck, have been debating this for years. You keep saying, “give it time.” Well Pete just missed the playoffs last year, and this year he was the coach of the one team nobody wanted to play. Next year? Who knows? The only reason he’s not playing in the NFC Championship right now is because his team played a slobber knocker against the 49ers, then flew across country to the Redskins, then flew across country again to play the Falcons. If those are home games, Pete’s a Super Bowl favorite right now. And look at what Pete did with Russell Wilson. 3rd round pick? That’s kid’s legit, and the team only has to pay him peanuts because of the rookie salary cap. And that’s right, you guessed it – that means Pete can buy other free agents this off season to improve their linebackers and receivers. But you’re right….. Pete sucks. Lol.
Pete inherited a Super Bowl team that carroll turned into an also-ran in 3 years. He went the wrong direction.
uh, spit, you must be very young or not into football. Carroll’s first try into the NFL HC ranks, don’t know the year(s) don’t care, he bombed and went back to College coaching.
Yup. I very easily can see the Niners coming out running. Then working play-action into the mix. VD/Crabs over the middle.
The key to the entire game will be the first quarter of football. I’m not worried about the 49ers’ finish in the second half. I’m worried about the start of the game. Kaep has to be patient and let the game actually be a short yardage game. Kaep has to say to himself, “In the first half I’m NOT going to let it all hangout. In the first half I’m going to be patient, hand the ball off and look to throw short touch passes to receivers who can gain minimal yardage and move the sticks.” In the second half, if Kaep does that, I’m confident Nolan will fuck it all up and try to get too tricky or watch as his defensive players get confused. I’m supremely confident the 49ers will win 45-17 if Kaep can play slow and concise in the first half. What happened in the Seattle game? Nolan’s D was great the first half, then sucked when it mattered the most. VD and James could have big first halfs – then Moss and Crabtree will have big second halfs.
The way to beat Kaep is to confuse him. But it’s hard to confuse a guy who has the line and running game Kaep has. If I was the defensive coordinator, I’d give Kaep a 4-1-6 defense to start the game (first play). Then on the second play I’d give him a 5-2-3 look. It’s great that Kaep can call two plays in the huddle and audible out when the defense is slighting one way or the other. But, what I’d try to do (if I was Nolan), was show a 5-2-3 or 4-1-6 and then at the snap I’d have guys shifting into different actual formations. It’s hard to do, especially with one week to prepare. And trying could result in a lot of blown coverages. Right now, for Nolan, it’s almost like you gotta dance with who you brung. But for me, I’d be looking to confuse the hell outta Kaep with gimmicks and shifts and mind boggling defensive formations pre snap that he’s never seen before. I think doing that would result in Kaep audibling to the run if the box is stacked, so Nolan should anticipate that – going with a 5-3-3 defense and then immediately dropping maybe two DEs into coverage. Or, if the defense is in a 3-2-6 formation, run blitz both safeties.
Again, though – You can bring all the tricks and gimmicks at Kaep but you get guys like Mike Iupati running downhill and that’s a pretty easy five yards for Gore if the defense is out of position. I really think the 49ers, with Kaep, are impossible to defend. It’ll take the NFL a year or two to create defenses that can stop the 49ers’ attack.
And it’ll be interesting to see how Chip Kelly uses Mike Vick. I bet the Eagles hired Chip because of Kaep’s game on Saturday. And Chip beat Harbaugh. Now Chip has Vick and the two could create a deadly combo, but it’ll take time and Vick has little left.
Well, I made a bet with a buddy of mine who loathes the 9ers–he wins $50 if they lose and I win the money if they win. So here’s hoping the jinx is broken on Sunday…I think they’ll do it. ATL is an average, over-rated team and Matty Ice loves to pull a Carson Palmer in big games and throw INTs at exactly the wrong time. Besides, I would LOVE to see a Harbowl SB–that would be fun.
The Bears just made the world’s worst move ever hiring Turretsman (he’ll scream the wrong play into his headset). In an era when the college game is actually revolutionizing NFL offenses, instead of looking to the college game, the Bears look to Canada. Perfect. Nice thinking. How awesome is that for the Eagles and Redskins? That’s two games right there for the old Chipper – regardless if the Eagles’ offensive line rivals only the Bears for futility.
Oh, don’t kid yourself. Nolan’s big suck defense will make its appearance on Sunday. The niners need to attack it when they see it.
I think the Niners come out conservative because Nolan’s tendency IS to overreact. He’ll come out with a lot of DBs and hope one can spy on Kappy to keep him contained. That’s when you strike down the middle with VD in the slot.
I hope to GOD Celek gets more shots. Walker is becoming a bigger disaster than I imagined,
I hope Celek gets more time and the 49ers draft another TE this offseason. I’ve always hated, “Best Player Available,” but beside linebacker and offensive line, the 49ers are the closest team in the NFL that could justify the “best player available,” strategy. If I was drafting next year, because it’s a good D line draft class, I’d go D line with the first pick, then go some combination of safety, corner, tight end, quarterback and kicker.
The 49ers should consider drafting another quarterback. Scott Tolzien, in my opinion, is trade bait in a few years. I think Harbaugh should draft another five tool outfielder who just needs coaching. I know there’s another qb out there with a brain, feet and an arm that Harbaugh can develop for a few years. If Kaep goes down, Scott Tolzien would be fun and great to watch (kinda like Bono), but unlike Montana to Bono, Kaep to Tolzien is a different mold. It’s a different game plan because Tolzien is a pocket passer.
D-line is quality, and a need. Sopoaga had a very up and down year, was nicked up a lot, and is no longer a young guy. And Justin only has so many Autumns left, too.
After that, CB, OLB, then with the boatload of picks in the middle rounds, RB, WR, QB, TE, K, S. Use the rest of the basket for trading up. If you can’t get an immediate impact player, get someone who can upgrade the bottom of your roster – someone who is better than a Tremaine Brock or a Darcell McBath.
Don’t forget, we get Parys back and he’s not chopped liver. He’s a good backup, and we have Grant. I don’t think we need a linebacker. I’d love to see us pickup an awesome D lineman in the first round – just a real slobber knocker, with hair on his teeth and can’t speak English.. or speak in general… born without a tongue and kept in a cage for years as his handlers poked sticks at him and made him cry as a boy, then gradually hardened over the years. And his muscles, because he was caged, aren’t taxed. They’re fresh, developed by testosterone and pain.
Haralson won’t survive camp next year unless someone gets hurt. Look for Fleming to show what he can on the outside. But you never have enough pass rushers. I’d like a guy who can get to the QB in the 4th quarter when Aldon and Brooks are tired. That ain’t Haralson’s game.
I gotta disagree with you there, partner. I think Haralson will make the team next year. If there was any doubt, I doubt the 49ers would keep him around all year on IR. I don’t know how the injury settlements work, but I imagine if the 49ers were just going to cut him they’d pay him an injury settlement and be done with him. I think on merit alone Haralson makes the team. And I think Haralson is a good backup. He can get pressure, and he sets the edge well (although he can get juked out of his shorts by the qb bootleg and misdirection plays).
Spit, Carroll was our DC in 95 or 96 I think. After the Super Bowls. He missed the parades. He also turned the Pats from a Super Bowl contender to an also-ran in 3 years.
If the Niners do anything at QB it may be to sign a vet. Gradkowski or some shit. They likely take a flier on a PS guy.
I mean if they keep all 14 picks.
You bring in a guy like Gradkowski to compete with Tolzien for number two. You draft a (cheap, with upside) 6th or 7th rounder to ride the practice squad. Just like with JJ this year, Grad either beats out Tolzien, or he gets cut.
Grump – that’s a sin. You’re a sinner. You don’t waste Harbaugh’s talents on retreads. Tolzien is trade bait. Why? Because the 49ers are going to have problems with their cap because they have so much talent. How do you combat that? You combat that by developing late round qbs, highlighting them in the preseason and when Kaep gets injured, and then you trade your qbs to crappy teams that get higher draft choices. Would you trade Tolzien to the Raiders for a 2014 second round pick? Of course you would. And what’s the difference between Tolzien’s value now and in two years? Perception. That’s it. Perception. Jim Harbaugh: JJ, Luck and Kaep. That’s damn good company. Think Tolzien’s value isn’t skyrocketing while Kaep tears the cover off the NFL? The 49ers’ second and third string qbs need to be functional trade bait. Just put the stamp on ’em, “Jim Harbaugh Approved,” and watch ’em scream off the shelf.
The reason I disagree with Gronk is because Scott Tolzien doesn’t need anymore motivation. That kid wants to play more than John Foggerty. Draft a 5-7 round qb with all the tools and have a plan to highlight and trade Tolzien. Eventually the press will start talking about how great Harbaugh is at developing qbs. And eventually, teams that really suck will pay high dollar to put butts in the seats to watch a Harbaugh talent play for their team.
My timeline would be in 2013 make Tolzien the number two and give him a lot …. A TON of playing time in the pre season and play him as much as possible in the regular season. Develop a number three in 2013. In 2014, trade Tolzien for a second or third round draft choice. Make 2013’s 5-7 round qb the backup qb in 2014. Why not? Kaep was the backup as a rookie. Nobody here believed in him. Even the great Spitblood was skeptical when I first saw him in the preseason last year. And that dude knows qb play. ABAS!!!
I would not *expect* that Grad would beat out Tolzien, actually. It’s more insurance against regression or injury. Which really, is what JJ was this year. I think JH knew from Day One how he *wanted* the QB situation to play out; JJ was just a spare tire if he needed it.
And fuck, me… a sinner.
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Shit. You don’t have the full list, I hope. 😀
I’d agree with what you wrote about Grad and JJ being backups. I’m pickin’ up what you’re layin’ down. And yes, I do have a list. You were downright awful in Tijuana.
Awful? Hell, IDK Spit, the twin sisters thought I was pretty good.
Theoretically. If there were twins. In Tijuana. Or elsewhere.
Those twins theoretically deserved better.
Niners will beat them good. Atlanta will be begging for mercy.
How many SI covers did NOT result in some negative result for the coveree? About 99% of ’em? Michael Phelps must have been on several covers, and he won some shitload of gold medals over 3 Olympics, etc. I wish SI’s writers were playing for Atlanta, that’d be a good thing…
Can Atlanta win this game? Sure they can. I’m not convinced this is a cakewalk. But, if the Niners throttle their running game, the Niners should be able to handle and plan for their passing game, which is the only thing they have going. I figure Atlanta has to get at least two turnovers from the Niners, with one leading directly to a TD, or a special teams TD, to be in this thing, and that won’t even guarantee a win. I’m looking for LMJ to have a standout game on turf. If Niners get a lead early and shut down the crowd noise, things should turn out well..
I don’t think this one will really be that close. I had to write something . . .
I still think Baalke has more say about who we get than Harbaugh. That’s his job and he has a whole staff who get paid to do the dirty work.. Seattle has had some really good drafts and they now have team chemistry that is pretty tight. I believe that Carroll is the reason they did not beat Altanta last week.
I think Nolan is the reason they almost lost . . .
Right, Grump. I figured they’d want some kind of vet presence at QB, but it isn’t imperative. The pecking order would be Kappy, Tolzein, and some grade 3 guy to come in if Scotty screws the pooch. You could still stash a 4th guy 6th round flier on the PS.
Smith is trade bait at this point. Tolzein gets a couple years to develop. If he’s great, great. Get what you can in a couple years. If he’s decent, hold on to him as long as possible as a backup.