Well, here we go. A fresh start. Y’all may have noticed some missing shit. Rather than even bother trying to wade through the bullshit, I tossed the last 2 threads. Let’s not go there again, k?
Come on, people. I’m all for lively discussions, but let’s get real here. If you served, thanks for your service. If you are going through hard times, sorry to hear that. But we’re here to nominally talk about the Niners, and football in general. This down time for the last 3 weeks really sucks, and apprently the boredom creeps in, but really.
I guess I have to patrol this place a lot harder. Or just give up the ghost. I didn’t think I’d have to be a babysitter.
Forty Niners Forever 
Don’t get me started on the ‘drug war’ as it applies to pot. It’s a total waste of money. Ca alones spends billions upon billions of dollars on stopping growers to no avail.
I don’t use it and don’t really agree with it’s use outside of medical but I’m realist enough to see what we have been doing has been counter productive. Times change and it’s time to legalize. It will be interesting to see what the Feds do in Colorado.
The whole drug war needs to be rethought. It is a near trillion dollar money pit that has borne little payoff but to put minorities in jail.
Shit, nevermind. Back to Alex . . .
That’s the rub 12th. Inconsistency. Look back to 3-4 years ago, and it seemed as if every screen play that the Niners ran either resulted in a pass skipping off Gore’s hands for a pick, or shit just didn’t work right and resulted in a fumble by Alex. They’ve completely removed the screen from the playbook. That takes away the ability of the Niners to slow down certain defenses like Minn and NYG who have very aggressive penetrating LBs. The Niners still run bubble screens with the WRs (Crabs) but the traditional RB screen is gone.
Hunter is utilized in the screen game at times. Should be called more often as they have mobile and agile offensive linemen.
Anyhow, like I said, 12-4 or even 13-3 is certainly in the realm of possibility, and beating the Bears would line these guys up for the #2 seed and a 1st round bye if all goes according to plan.
If that’s the case, I like our chances in getting to the Super Bowl.
I don’t know that it’s been shown why they run fewer screens. There are many versions of the WCO, it’s not like there’s one that all teams follow. Smith’s accuracy on short throws would seem to rule out any theory that he’s why Harbaugh/Roman don’t use them much. More likely, IMO, is that it’s not a big part of their offense.
But bottom line on the QB position and how the team has fared with the Harbaugh/Roman/Smith combo is that I see no way they’re better than 20-6 if Johnny Joe God was the QB. It goes against everything that is preached by every coach at every level that ball security is not the Number One priority. Too often mistake free football is not recoginized as involving skill.
Again, this is just my opinion. Added note on the screen game- Gore was gettting the shit beat out him when he getting the same load running as he is now plus getting about 50 receptions a year. Last year was the first year played all 16 (plus 2 in the postseason) since 2006.
Some QBs have the knack of throwing a little lob over the D Lineman’s outstretched arms.
Alex has never mastered that and throws a straighter high throw that is disaster if the receiver deflects it trying to make the catch which they often do.
Well, that could be a strategic move by the coaches to get less wear and tear on Gore, or it could be they just don’t like the risk of running screens. They DO work, but like you said Gore averaged around 50 receptions before Harbaugh got here. That’s a lot of additional pounding. He had 16 catches last year, and is likely to get around 30 this year. A big difference. But there ARE more passes (by a lot) going to the WRs now. Markedly so this year due to the addition of Manningham and Moss, and the job that Crabs is doing so far. VDs numbers are down, but that is because VD is now doubled on nearly every play.
What does it mean? Well, if they can keep moving the chains with these short to mid range passes, keep the running game on track, then all is good. The problems may arise if they have to come back from deficits. They are working on the longer passing game, and it has been a mixed bag of results. I thik the Niners will ground and pound for the first few series and then take to the air against the Rams.
I haven’t smoked pot for over 30 years. I don’t like it. I would not smoke it if it were legal. But, I’ve always thought it should be legal, it just makes too much sense.
No one uses it over here, mostly. Booze & meth yes plenty
I said we’d go 14-2 this year and while I recognize we’d have to run the table to get there, i think it’s a possibility. I’m actually not that worried about the Chicago Mon night game since it’s at home and NE has hardly been unbeatable this year. The two games I’m most worried about the road game with the Lambs and the 2nd to last game vs Seattle (in Seattle)–division games on the road are tough and these 2 teams, as all of you know, are better than their indicated records……
Yeah, I’m completely not behind the Bears. They’ll likely go 1-5 these next 6. If they can go 3-3 vs those teams, they’re better than I thought. They’ve had a weak schedule, and the Niners should beat them with relative ease. The Rams are a mess. I don’t think the game there will be much of a challenge.
Saints? Well, they are playing a little better (albeit vs Philly), and they have a big score to settle with the NIners with all the bounty shit that happened in the playoffs last year, and the playoff loss. That could turn into a shootout. The biggest obstacle is that Seattle game. NE in NE? I guess if it’s a blizzard there might be problems, but weather usually favors the team that can run, and that certainly isn’t the Pats.
Pats are good in the snow, they have to be.
Not true that Vernon is doubled on most every play. He is in protection more and just doesn’t get the looks when he’s out in the pattern. Whether that’s play calling or Smith just not looking for him I can’t say. But I can say he’s open on a lot of plays that Smith just doesn’t look his way.
Well, VD usually lines up to the right side, so the opportunities should be there if he isn’t doubled. I by no means have seen enough either way to know what’s happening, but some of the early games, he was doubled over and under. Also, he’s consistently getting safety coverage, whereas earlier in his career he saw more LB coverage.
You got that coaches feed, right, NoFear? I haven’t seen enough downfield coverage to know either way, but they have shown him doubled once in a while.
Yeah, the all-22 and end zone angles. It’s impossible from the TV’s focus on the ball unless they isolate the play for replay sometimes you get a better look.
Vernon is still the most effective receiver with 4 TDs and gaining 15 yards per reception is top of the charts. Crabs and Manningham are eating into the balls available pretty big. And even Moss is getting some of the short stuff.
I knew it would be hard to keep everyone happy with the addition of Manningham and Moss but I didn’t think Davis would be the odd man out.
Well, the knock for the past 7 years was not enough balls to the WRs. I for one am glad to see them getting catches. Manningham has been solid. He’s done what has been asked. Moss is Moss. He gets double covered every time. The fact he’s making people miss is all the better. I’d like to see him get more throws in his direction. Crabs has been a mini-revelation. He’s on pace for his best season yet (~80 catches for around 900 yards and 6 TDs). Nothing earthshaking, but he has been looked at more in the red zone than in recent memory. VD should get more targets in the red zone as well. Although that is when he usually gets jammed and sat on.
The goal going forward is to get Crabs, Moss and Manningham all comfortable in the offense being run. We ain’t going air Coryell here. As I’ve said before, 150 rushing, 250 passing, and protect the ball. Do that, and this team has a real shot at winning it all. The D should be able to get enough rest if this shit keeps going as-is. 3rd down conversions have improved, and ST is coming around after a shakey start. If Smith keeps playing the way he has, then the Niners will go 6-2 or better the rest of the way.
The 2 games these guys lost, the coaching staff went away from the run and it hurt them. Get back on point and the results should be there.
One of our weaknesses last year was not throwing to the WR enough, focusing on VD. That is something they have gotten better at. As other teams have focused on VD and the running game other receivers have had success. The pendulum will swing back and VD will get his catches as defenses have to cover more viable targets. I’m looking forward to the offense continuing to develop.
Smith and Davis have been far too sucessful since 2009 to even suggest that Smith doesn’t look for him. Actually, as Roman has said,teams have “designed take-away-that-tight-end game plans” and Davis has said that he’s just not been open: “”Nothing’s there,” Davis said. “When I run my corner routes, the cornerback is dropping to the corner. They are just taking stuff away, some of my explosive routes and stuff….I don’t know what to do. I run my routes hard to get open, but there’s nothing there.”
You’d have us write Davis off the rest of the season as a decoy then? “Brilliant!”
They’ve hit the deep seam and sideline go route too many times for defenses to ignore it. Of course they defend it now. That’s the game. The defenses’ expectation also opens up other things. You know, like play action off a run play that’s working. Or did you expect Davis to come out and say “they’ve got our money plays covered so we’re going to do x, y, and z now.” ?
Twinfan says of course Smith is looking at Davis. Yet I watch the games and see Davis open and Smith’s back to him waiting for Crabs to push his guy past the sticks and turn back or waiting for that shallow slant. Who to believe? Twinfan or my lying eyes? It’s a tough one. Yeah, but I think I’m going with what I see instead of the guy who backs Smith from force of habit.
I’m reporting what Davis and the OC say, pal, Who am I to believe? Davis and Roman or NoFear? Next…
Roman also says Seattle and the Giants doubled VD. I never proposed anything, I reported facts as told by Davis and Roman. I have no doubt that NoFear believes that he sees VD open and Smith ignoring him. Actually, that’s been true one time,anyway, Davis was open when Smith opted to go to Walker for a 12 yard TD instead. Harbaugh said the Seattle game was one of Vernon’s best, even though he didn’t catch a pass- they had him blocking and he was outstanding, That’s from Harbaugh, not twinfan, OK? Nofear needs to discuss this with Harbaugh, VD, and Roman. They seem to think VD is not getting open, as VD himself says. Make sure they know your suggestions for the offense come from a Nolan disciple..
Harbaugh said Smith is elite and we were never looking at Peyton Manning. Did you take that to the bank, too? Of course, you did.
I never said they weren’t looking at Manning and I specifically said at time of the “elite” remark (before the regular season Giant’s game) that Harbaugh was saying it to motivate **** as Manning had just gone through his own “elite QB” kerfuffle. I added that **** was NOT elite- yet.
Once again, you suffer from Romnesia or you are fabricating what I’ve said. I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt and go with Romnesia…
In the immortal words if Mike Nolan:
“I;ve got to go look at the tape”
Wish I could
http://www.thepostgame.com/blog/men-action/201211/how-oregon-coach-chip-kelly-can-spark-moneyball-revolution-nfl
Interesting argument, if you get past the Duck fangasm. Personally, I’d like to see someone try it out. I trust math more than I trust conventional wisdom.
Ditto
Great article to spur debate. I’ve been capping on coaches all week because I keep seeing situations (3) where kicking a FG on 4th down deep in enemy territory gives a 6 point lead when a 1st down allows the game to end in the victory formation. Two of those timid coaches lost their game. One was the LSU-Alabama game.
It amazes me that this blog spends so much time talking about Alex Smith. It’s obsessively weird. Every fucking day all day long. And I don’t fault Chuck, he is doing his best to steer the conversation into something else football related. You guys just don’t follow. Chuck is tireless in his efforts with new threads, as a blog owner/writer I know how difficult it is to come up with new topics each day for the coconut-heads to kick around. I know all this daily shit gets carried on with Denny’s idiotic mantra’s about whether we “signed Peyton Manning yet” and Twin obviously spends a lot of time bringing up Smith and there are tangent-convo’s from that. And Twin, don’t give me any shit about comparing you to Denny, I’m not doing that. You two are just the two guys who bring him up the most Fact.
I just don’t get why there isn’t more discussion about the rest of the team or just football in general.
Actually, Phil is at his best in his little corner of the blog when he compiles all of the “score prediction” posts. That is literally the best thing about this blog sometimes………
If the only thing to discuss on this blog is Alex Smith then so be it, keep kicking the same shit around. But there seems to be a lot of you guys who know a decent amount about football. How about we spend some time on some other topics? Smith vs Manning and “Smith vs who-liked-him first” and all that shit is so 100% played out. It’s beyond played out, it’s just dead. It just drags the blog down when all that gets discussed is the same stupid shit over and over again…….
Put it this way, if all we talked about at The Flap ever day was Barry Zito, all day every day forever and ever, wouldn’t that shit get a little old?
Sorry CHuck, not trying to ruffle feathers but I wanted to just put this out there……..
Careful I might make a call like 27-7 Niners vs the Rams.
Yeah the focus on Alex I don’t go there…
Yeah, we should beat the Lambs pretty comfortably. Their defense is not *that bad* statistically – but this is a case where i think stats are biased. How many yards and points does it take to beat a team with a lousy offense? Enough to get a comfortable lead, and then you run out the clock. I think we get 240 yards passing, 210 rushing, and win 31-3.
Actually, if one paid attention even a little it, I haven’t posted here often enough to bring him up the most. When I notice a totally moronic post dismissing his game against AZ because of YAC, I do speak up….
FACT- every football blog obsesses on the QB. Fans obsess on the QB. Fans obsess on the second string QB. That will always be so. Now I’m sure you have something to say about Darcel McBath’s play last week, right?
It’s true that the starting QB in the NFL gets the most attention on the team. But 99% of ALL the attention? Fuck that. Twin, you are as guilty as Denny, for different reasons, of sustaining all of this Alex Smith ad nauseum bullshit.
And I’m owning it too, I talk about him a lot here.
I’m just trying to stop the insanity, and that’s what it feels like, when every fucking day here feels like *Aex Smith Day–all day Alex all the time*…….
And sorry, but you’re clueless about your own posts if you think you aren’t the blogger who carries this shit on the *second most*.
Just let it go dude, Denny is a nut, it doesn’t mean you have to pick ’em up and eat them, too……….
Alex Smith is the gift to blog owners that keeps on giving! It happens on every 49er blog.
Again, I go too long without posting at all for your allegation to be true. Your allegation is not based on fact. But I’m totally up for an experiment. The game is Sunday, there’s no fucking reason at all to discuss Smith or the 49er QB position at all. So I propose that his name, any other 49er QBs name, or the 49er QB position be verboten for discussion of any kind. Mention Smith and go to jail.
How about Fangio’s defense? The pass rush has been very inconsistent. We saw what it did to Skelton ( a lot of his yards were in junk time). But the loss to Minnesota was in large part because they hardly touched Ponder, who’s more mobile than Skelton, but Fangio didn’t even have his guys going after him. He constently threw late over the middle and got away with it because they were rarely near him. The kid was begging to throw the ball to us…
To be fair (if I must…), Twin does not usually start the Alex Smith debates – he is usually the 2nd one into the fray.
Sometimes I wonder if the Ravens’ blogs bitch about Flacco quite as much as we do about Alex. I suspect they probably do. Similar teams, brothers for coaches, somewhat similar QBs – though ours is having a little bit better year.
I’m not going to go back and count them, they’re there for all to see, but I’d guess that 90-95% of Twin’s posts are about Alex Smith. If that’s not obsessing on a single player here, I don’t know what is.
and then to *be fair* I’d say that 98-99% of Dennis posts are about Alex Smith or have some reference to Alex Smith in them.
and all that does is take me back to my 8:25pm post from last night……
and Twin, you *proposal* of not mentioning his name is ludicrous. All I was suggesting is that the blog might consider not obsessing on him 24/7. Not referencing him even once during the game makes no sense at all………
You need to read the post, Flavoro. I said *until* game time.
When I do post it’s almost always about **** and none of Flavor’s business that I do. But that wasn’t what he said. Again-take notes- I go long periods without posting here at all so Flavoro’s allegation doesn’t pass that “sniff test “
So with all that said, you may reach me in my cave on Karpathos island, let me know when it’s game time.
Say hi to Nate Schierholtz at the cave!
Grump. that’s a pretty good article. It reminds me of a ram game that Nolan was coaching and he has 4th and goal with 55 seconds left, and a one point lead. The Niners were running the ball down their throat, and the Rams were gassed on D. Nolan kicks the FG to give the Niners a 4 pt lead, and the Rams promptly march down the field, score a TD and win the game. At the time I was pissed because the Rams D was totally on their heels, and an 8 pt lead would have been a lot more demoralizuing than 4. Hey, the Rams could have tied it and won anyway, but the decision really was lame. The problem is, a lot of times going conservative still works anyway. The same situation came up in the Dallas Atl game and they kicked the FG with a 3 point lead.
Another thing which you see all the time is teams down around the 35-38 yard line. A little too far to try the FG, but so many times you see the punt go into the end zone for an 15-18 yard net punt. If its 4th and short, why not go for it?
I remember the Ram game and thinking the same thing, too conservative. I think Harbaugh would do the same thing though.
Nolan also called a time out. Chip Kelly would not do that. The Rams were gassed, Nolan had no killer instinct, he calls a TO which gives them a rest and then goes for a FG on 4th and 6 inches deep in Ram territory. It’s not just Nolan, coaches are so unprepared for that situation it is rediculous.
I think too often coaches will go with the ‘safe’ call, which is what everyone else would do in that situation. A guy who is a bit of a dick has an advantage, in this case, because he doesn’t give a shit what anyone else thinks. So Belichick, maybe Payton, maybe Rexoid. Of course, Rex won’t ever get that first down, because the Jets suck so bad they defy math. But if you have any kind of offense it sounds like it’s worth paying attention here.
I will say this for Nolan, he did try the onsides kick enough. Partly because Nedney was so good at it, but he was willing to gamble there. He did not trust the offense on fourth and short though – and that was not about passing, IIRC. Our run game repeatedly would fail to get a yard in that situation. We had problems for the longest time in short yardage – seemed like the defense ALWAYS got under our pad level. So you have to consider that when judging him.
I would hope Harbaugh would read this article and rethink his conservatism on 3rd and 4th down. Hope, but not expect. Most coaches are ultimately reactive, and as long as he is winning, he may be unwilling to change anything.
Seem’s to me Harbs is conservative by nature but has been evolving the offense trying different things out so maybe.
Yes, and I hope so.