Well, here we go. A fresh start. Y’all may have noticed some missing shit. Rather than even bother trying to wade through the bullshit, I tossed the last 2 threads. Let’s not go there again, k?
Come on, people. I’m all for lively discussions, but let’s get real here. If you served, thanks for your service. If you are going through hard times, sorry to hear that. But we’re here to nominally talk about the Niners, and football in general. This down time for the last 3 weeks really sucks, and apprently the boredom creeps in, but really.
I guess I have to patrol this place a lot harder. Or just give up the ghost. I didn’t think I’d have to be a babysitter.
Forty Niners Forever 
Most every NFL head coach is on the hot seat to some degree. That makes them risk averse. Miss the field goal it’s on the kicker. Go for it and lose possession and maybe the game, the loss is on that decision.
Most fans would always choose to go for it. They have an unrealistic view of the capabilities of their teams in most cases. And the go for it play is much more exciting.
But they are generally no judge for the condition of the players, the prevailing attitudes or the flow of the game. Let alone how to get back in if the play goes bad and the other team ends up putting points on the board. Even if only three, that’s a six point mistake and the owner’s not likely to understand the math behind the decision on those times when it does cost the game.
The HC also knows what kind of team he has and who they’re matched up against. In some cases, even better than the fans think they do. If he has a team that plays pretty solid defense and field position with a weak passing game, he knows he has a much harder time playing catch up then keeping the other guys from scoring.
The thing is, the math doesn’t seem to support that – it seems to indicate that you should go for it unless it’s clearly a bad risk, like 4th and ten.
Yeah, your level of trust in your offense matters – Tom Brady is going to convert that 4th down more often than Mark Sanchez – but still, the math indicates you’re better off playing an aggressive style. Might cost you a game here, but you’ll win more later there.
I remember Mike Ditka saying if his team couldn’t move the ball one yard they had no business in the game. He always went for it. It didn’t help his team or him when his team proved time after time “they had no business in the game”.
My guess would be that even though a HC accepts the mathematical odds, the one time that decision costs his team a game would likely be the last time “the odds” figure into his decision.
I wonder how long a stretch a team would go before the math works out. Maybe longer than the team has the same coach/system/players.
Are things like field position, score, time in half/game, and such considered in the math? Some of these things make it an easy decision to go for it, supported by the math or not.
Yeah, what you say is true – we’re talking about a difference of maybe one game a year, on average. And no guarantees about the distribution of that.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeus_%28football_computer_program%29
It’s certainly easier to make the ‘usual choice’ than to make the ‘better choice’, if you are unlucky and have an owner who does not want to hear your explanation.
We don’t have access to the actual software, so individual game scenarios become difficult to evaluate. Still, the program seems to indicate that *some* additional aggressiveness in play calling in these situations is a good thing.
More about the software and it’s details:
http://www.pigskinrevolution.com/aboutus.html
Thanks for the links, Grumpy. Interesting application, with some inherent disadvantages I think. I bet Snyder is checking Shanny’s calls with it, building a case.
Scoring Challenged? Hard to score when ya never play a game. Ok blew the Romney call but lets try Niners vs Rams:
Phil: 27-7 Niners. Careful I might make a call like 27-7 Niners vs the Rams. Yeah the focus on Alex I don’t go there…
Grumpy Guy: 31-3 Niners. Yeah, we should beat the Lambs pretty comfortably. Their defense is not *that bad* statistically – but this is a case where i think stats are biased. How many yards and points does it take to beat a team with a lousy offense? Enough to get a comfortable lead, and then you run out the clock. I think we get 240 yards passing, 210 rushing, and win 31-3.
A coach who would gamble was Vince Lombard with Green Bayi. On fourth and one he would have Starr run the play action dive into the line with Jim Taylor and throw downfield to Dowler or Dale who were always open.
In the Nolan situation it was my opinion the worst thing he did was call a time out. When I say coaches are unprepared for this situation it is the time out that allows defenses time to rest and regroup. Typically, my feeling is if you need to call a time out it is probably best to kick. Chip Kelly seems to fully understand this concept. If you have a defense tired and on their heels do not back off. Giving them a rest with a time out allows them to re-strategize and even make personnel changes. If coaches were better prepared for this situation the time out would not need to be called in the first place.
The risk/reward factor in that Ram game clearly favored going for it on 4th and 6 inches. It’s not that hard to figger out if one takes into account the odds of scoring on 4th and 6 inches, and then how far the Rams would likely have to go to score the TD after the kick vs. how far they’d have to drive from the 6 inch line to attempt a FG.
I did the math for NoFear and the other Nolan apologists at the time, but taking all of the factors into account, going for the TD was the only reasonable option.
That Nolan was the HC destroys the theory that he was the best person to make the decision.
Okay, I need everyone to read this article!! I agree whole heartlely with what this coach does!! go with the math!! Head Coach in the NFL are way to conservative!! Harbaugh is a prime example. He passed and ran the ball against Buffallo, 300 rushing, 300 passing yards. then The NY Giants come in a handle Harbaugs offense. So what does Harbaugh do the next game…goes back to the run 75-80% of the offense. anyway here is a link to the article. The Niners have the defense to do what this coach does.
http://tinyurl.com/abrau2j
Yeah, Bergs, I forgot about the time out. It was a pisser to me because the Niners ran the ball all the way down the field on that drive with ease. Then they let the Rams off the hook and kicked the FG.
After the game, to a man, the Ram players said it was a huge boost that the Niners didn’t go for the TD. Say what you will about a given defense, but back then especially, the Niners were of the bend-and-wilt style otf defense.
Kevin, that’s the same link that Grump posted earlier. But yeah, it’s certainly food for thought. The maddning thing about it is when you keep a lesser team in the game by not trying to demoralize them completely, you leave the door open for a comeback. FGs are OK, but if you are inside the 20, I’d go for it certainly more than the average NFL coach does. Maybe not as much as Chip does, but certainly 4th and 1 from the 8, I’d go every time.
The one time I wouldn’t go for it is if it is the first score. Getting any points on the board is too much of a psyclogical boost to pass on. I did not make this up, I read it from Bill Walsh and just happen to agree with oit 100%.
This is good. There really are other things to bitch about. Nolan is a bit dated now, but it’s a start.
I think I just read that Gore is 2 for 6 on 3rd and 2 or less. That seems right as he’s gained 9 yards in 7 attempts on 3rd and 1 or 2. He has one gain of 7 yards so on the other 6 he’s gained a total of 2 yards. So why do they continue to flog that dead horse? Frank has always sucked in short yardage situations- especially third down…
But, even worse, they’d used Dixon just 3 times all year on third and short and then used him in the biggest third down of the title game against NY. The guy should be the short yardage runner ALL the time. He was stopped on 3rd and one from the NY 46, we punted and after a 3 and out by NY, Williams muffed the punt and NY went on to score. That 3rd down decision was as big as the muffed punt catch and is rarely mentioned.
Not sure whether it’s Gore, the Sardine Can offense, coaching, or our offensive linemen. For years now we have failed a lot on 4th down runs. It’s often looked to me that the defenders get under our linemen’s pad level too easily.
For several years the tendency was to run off a Iupati block so the defense loaded up to that area. Forty Niners might have caught on to that finally.
Twin, that’s what I was thinking they’d use Jacobs for, but I haven’t seen hide nor hair of Brandon.
It is a pisser to me that they have him but won;t use him in short yardage situations.
New thread is up by the way.
Thnks to you all for staying on point. It is much appreciated.
In case you missed it, new thread is up.