Well, here we go. A fresh start. Y’all may have noticed some missing shit. Rather than even bother trying to wade through the bullshit, I tossed the last 2 threads. Let’s not go there again, k?
Come on, people. I’m all for lively discussions, but let’s get real here. If you served, thanks for your service. If you are going through hard times, sorry to hear that. But we’re here to nominally talk about the Niners, and football in general. This down time for the last 3 weeks really sucks, and apprently the boredom creeps in, but really.
I guess I have to patrol this place a lot harder. Or just give up the ghost. I didn’t think I’d have to be a babysitter.
Forty Niners Forever 
Well LeBeau is keeping them in the game despite injuries, and this weekend Wallace took one in on his freakish speed alone. Roethlisberger can’t get a two count to throw much less let a deep route develop. The short game is all they’ve got passing but it looks like their running game is showing signs of life lately. Think they’re not worried? Or the NYG’s aren’t worried that they find themselves playing like shit lately?
QBR for one game is meaningless. But it’s always touted if it makes Alex look good. He got sacked twice only because he held the ball too long and twice got delay penalties. As I mentioned earlier he threw mostly can’t miss passes behind the LOS or within five yards of it but QBR is all I see from the poor Alex crowd.
He’s the weakest link in the system going for the championship. Can the defense and special teams keep us in all the games left so check downs and hand offs are enough? Gore probably won’t last till the end. What then?
Hunter, Jacobs, and Rick James can carry the load if Gore goes down. NoFear, do you think our chances are hurt if Smith goes down to injury? Or helped?
Like I said, QBR is what it is. A better read on quarterbacks rather than strictly passing yards. Game to game? Who cares? It’s like a batter having a great day at the plate. Take it for what it’s worth, but it draws no conclusion about what happens the next game. BUT, a season’s worth of numbers usually mean something. Smith was 9th last year. Right about where he should be. Should he incrementally improve this year, great. 5th or 6th should be enough to go all the way. He’s not going to throw 300 consistently. He isn’t being ASKED to. Aikman, Montana, Young, and a bunch of other QBs were not tasked to go out and throw 50 times a game like Marino and Fouts were. You bemoan QBR, but I hear from THOUSANDS of bloggers who complain that Smith doesn’t put up Brees or Brady-like numbers. He NEVER will. Why? Because they don’t have consistent running games. The Niner run game is the envy of the league.
Rick James :0
NoFear is just one of many who have trotted out Smith’s rating when it was weighted down by his rookie and injury years. His rating has been above 90 ever since Rayes was fired- so now they say it’s “misleading” or the receivers deserve the credit, or he pads it, or….any piece of nonsense that will justify a position that is totally unsupportable by fact.
“QBR for one game is meaningless.” Funny shit. What is it for 33 games ? Misleading, I guess.
Read the next sentence, skippy.
And?
Maybe I’m referencing the wrong thing. My point is in my above post:
” Like I said, QBR is what it is. A better read on quarterbacks rather than strictly passing yards. Game to game? Who cares? It’s like a batter having a great day at the plate. Take it for what it’s worth, but it draws no conclusion about what happens the next game. BUT, a season’s worth of numbers usually mean something. “
Like Pablo hitting 3 hrs in the 1st game of the WS. You can’t project forward from that point.
Smith’s numbers are all over the place week to week. What do you make of that?
Rating:
125.6
107.7
81.1
78.1
156.2
43.1
74.5
157.1
ESPN’s QBR:
83.5
79.4
52.9
46.4
99.2
24.8
35.3
92.0
For whatever reason, ESPNs numbers make Smith out to be more inconsistent than the traditional QBR does.
Still these numbers smack of some inconsistency on Smith’s part. Sacrilege, I know.
The ESPN numbers are generally lower. Alex is 7th in the league by that ruler, which is pretty good in my opinion. For whether he is inconsistent, what we really need is a detailed statistical analysis of the standard deviation for each QB’s data set. The larger the SD the more variation from week to week. And no, I’m not volunteering – I could hack the math, but I just don’t have the time. I suspect though that Alex’s inconsistency is a little bigger, but only marginally.
7th is pretty good? Hard to argue with that. 4th is even better and that’s from the rating measurement that has been used to rate QBs throughout his career. But, yeah, either way, it’s actually fair to say it’s “pretty good”. Don’t say “good” though, that will get a guy in big trouble…
Here’s the link for TQBR btw – notice Peyton leads by a comfortable margin, with a number of just 85.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr
This QBR stuff is a joke. Anyone seriously believe Alex is better than Eli and Drew? Better at what, throwing safe passes? That’s how they are rated. Ok hands up everyone that would rather have Alex Smith over Drew Brees or Eli Manning. If I need a proven QB to win a game for me who would I choose, hmmmm, I’m thinking, I’m thinking.
No, I don’t deny his poor games.I’m honest about his performances. Those saying otherwise are fabricating what I’ve posted. It’s the dishonesty of those who dismiss his overall performance in the post-Raye era who need some fact checking performed.
its true you acknowledge his poor games.
As far as Kappy, it took the league about one minute to review the video and defend against him. He might be a good QB someday, but he wasn’t even the clear 2 or even 3 until late in the preseason. Maybe the two worst play decisions in the last year and a half were the calls inserting Kappy toward the end of two long drives early in the NY game, fucking up both. He needs to grab some pine and learn.
Before someone suffers Romnesia and accuses me of ignoring Smith’s awful game, I posted about his terrible performance about 6 times during the game. I’d mention his 43.1 QB rating for that game, but that’s meaningless for just one game, right?
I agree with you on this point Twin, the timing of putting in Kap was atrocious, Alex was the hot hand and the drives were solid. Absolutely killed momentum in those instances.
I don’t agree that the plays he was given reflect his QB ability, he did as he was told. Bad play calling and worse timing.
I was excited about the possibilities after that Jets game. So maybe I’m being too hard him. Look, I’ve rooted for this team since ’74, when I got out here. I rooted for them when Smith sat and Hill, Sullivan, whoever, was under center. If Alex gets benched and Kappy takes over, I’ll root for them then. I’ve just liked Smith since I saw him in the Fiesta Bowl, and always thought he’d be a top NFL QB. If I think that opinion has been vindicated, well, I do think that. Surely you’ve all followed the Insider, so if an Alex lover thinks some folks should be eating a litlle crow, it’s hard to disagree. But I’ll tone down the Valentine.
Ok deal.
Okay, don’t say I never did anything for you guys! WARNING: Math ahead…
Here is the raw data for ESPN TQBR for 12 QBs I selected – I don’t have time to do everyone.
Peyton Manning: 94.4,21.3,56.0,92.0,91.0,73.4,96.3,94.7
Tom Brady: 90.4,30.6,86.2,96.5,82.1,72.0,72.1,98.4
Andrew Luck: 39.2,95.7,82.0,68.2,40.4,69.2,68.2,89.1
Aaron Rodgers: 55.1,29.3,54.3,86.8,54.7,95.8,95.5,70.4,81.7
Alex Smith: 83.5,79.4,52.9,46.4,99.2,24.8,35.3,92.0
Eli Manning: 53.2,59.3,93.1,55.8,95.2,96.0,80.2,48.2,14.2
Drew Brees: 38.7,41.9,24.7,82.3,83.7,95.3,24.2,88.5
Tony Romo: 82.8,38.3,43.4,14.2,59.2,85.1,49.9,79.6
Jay Cutler: 62.0,4.7,35.7,81.1,71.8,53.1,37.5,59.0
Christian Ponder: 66.2,45.9,89.9,64.8,78.6,37.3,18.4,13.6,11.1
Philip Rivers: 70.7,84.7,27.8,81.1,47.6,2.6,20.0,94.5
Mark Sanchez: 97.1,46.4,34.3,2.8,10.0,86.6,45.1,12.1
Now here is the statistical analysis. Remember mean here is not the same as the TQBR for a season, because the number of attempts varies by game. But the SD is interesting.
Peyton Manning: Mean 77.39, Standard Deviation 26.63
Tom Brady: Mean 78.54, Standard Deviation 21.75
Andrew Luck: Mean 69.00, Standard Deviation 20.68
Aaron Rodgers: Mean 69.29, Standard Deviation 22.61
Alex Smith: Mean 64.19, Standard Deviation 27.86
Eli Manning: Mean 66.13, Standard Deviation 27.40
Drew Brees: Mean 59.91, Standard Deviation 30.30
Tony Romo: Mean 56.56, Standard Deviation 25.03
Jay Cutler: Mean 50.61, Standard Deviation 24.16
Christian Ponder: Mean 47.31, Standard Deviation 29.24
Philip Rivers: Mean 53.63, Standard Deviation 34.06
Mark Sanchez: Mean 41.80, Standard Deviation 34.99
Clearly Alex is not THAT inconsistent. Some guys are better – mostly guys you’d expect, though Luck is doing shockingly well for a rookie.
The difference in consistency between Alex and either Peyton and Eli is so small as to be statistically insignificant.
Romo and Cutler are a little more consistent. As in consistently, they suck. Brees and Ponder are both significantly more inconsistent this season. And Rivers and Sanchez, as we all knew, are fucking awful.
By my reading of these tea leaves, Alex is having a good year, and is a good quarterback. Not great, but certainly good.
Hmmm. http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr/_/sort/actionPlays
And in the clutch http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr/_/sort/cwepaTotal
13 ain’t bad, when your offense expects to lean on the ground game. But look at Luck. They put a team around him, that kid will be special.
I’m not knocking 13, a little above mid pack in the clutch is decent. I’m knocking these ratings they come up with. Game film is the fairest way to analyse how a player is doing.
It’s nice to say Alex is number 4 or 9 or whatever, but just a quick glance down the list has more skilled players who have less talent around them.
anticipated points lost due to taking a sack http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr/_/sort/cwepaSackedCondensed
Look at who comes in 30 and 34 here. Interesting.
Gunslingers, they try to extend the play, works more often than not. It all comes down to attempts. The less an efficient QB has the ball the better he will score on these ratings.
It’s why I said they are a joke, if a QB throws 2 or 3 times the passes as another guy, even if he is successful, he will have more TO and sacks.
Once you eliminate the hand offs the picture looks a little different. Agreed hand offs are a part of a QB job, but the amount of hand offs due to our heavy run game skew the QBR by a country mile.
There is also varying levels of defenses faced, inconsistency within a game, all kinds of factors. What the data shows though, is that Alex is not exceptionally more inconsistent than most other second tier QBs, or even the Manning boys. QBs have up and down games.
What it shows is he is not wildly inconsistent in the method in which he plays. He tends to play conservatively win or lose.
I love this: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/11/06/poll-of-players-rex-ryan-is-nfls-most-overrated-coach/
He looks like Clarence the cross eyed lion in this pic.
Since total QBR is the rating after taking into account the other numbers, one has to be quite inventive to dispute that he’s been ( by Total QBR) the 7th best QB through 8 games. Better than Eli, for one.
Does this mean you think Alex is a better QB than Eli?
Right now at 6-2 the Forty-Niners are better than the Giants at 6-3.
They would be seeded higher and get the bye. Alex has his team in a better place than Eli.
The team has the team in a better place and it didn’t answer the question.
I’ll say no. But numbers are numbers. When the Warriors traded Chris Webber for Tom Googs Googliotta, their numbers were similar, but the eye test was a different story.
No, it means he’s been better through 8 games. I said that already.
It doesn’t mean that at all Twin. Alex has thrown way less passes than Eli but those he has thrown were efficient, also QBR takes into account success at handing off the ball and since we run more than the Giants that also weights the results. So as an indicator of which QB is better the Quarter Back Rating System has some major problems. Alex is generally doing well, but his ceiling as an individual player is not close to some of the players listed below him. It’s just a cool thing to say Alex is better than Drew or Eli on the QBR, but it doesn’t pass the sniff test does it?
Chucks point is also right.
Actually, your rationalizions don’t pass the sniff test. 12. He’s rated higher in the rating system that does not take into account handing off the ball. 7th is actually conservative. I agree that Total QBR has problems. He’s really 4th best so far this year and top 10 since early 2010. The first tier is Rodgers, PManning, Brees, Brady, Roethwhatever. Second tier is Eli, Schaub, Smith, Ryan, Romo,Stafford.
Obviously, this is all just my opinion, but I’ve heard the “sniff test” argument against other good players in other sports,and all it means is “I don’t care what the facts show”. I’m sorry, but the QBR was good enough when Smith’s was low, it’s good enough now…
I would not put Romo in the second tier. He makes plays – but too many of them are bad ones. And Stafford is not having a good year.
Luck OTOH, might buy his way into that club pretty soon. He has been preternaturally steady for a rookie.
I didn’t care about QBR when it was low or high Twin. Look at each category and you will see Alex is not listed in the top 10 in any of them. What it means is a lot of mediocrity and few mistakes = a high QBR.
Switch worthless and Eli and toss Romo out and I agree.
“What it means is a lot of mediocrity and few mistakes = a high QBR” That’s your characterization .I find it interesting that making few mistakes is considered almost a flaw. Not fumbling and not throwing the ball to the wrong team involves skill and toughness. Peyton Manning has said that the single most important thing as an offense is still having the ball when the play has ended.
Anyway, It’s gonna be a rockin’ time in Kenya tonight 😉
Seems like a reasonable characterization to me twin. Obama should win today in a close race.
Will Tony Romo be with Dallas beyond 2013? http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/11/06/looking-at-romos-future-in-dallas/
I sure hope so. He and Jerry Jerkoff are what’s keeping Dallas Dallas.
Jeruhh says he will stay as GM no matter what. Best news I’ve had all day.
That’s the big lie about QBRs. It’s way too dependent on scheme, play calling, run game strength, receivers’ ability, and too many things that measure a team’s offense more than its passer.
After all the stats, eight years in the league as a starter, the dumbing down of the passing game to suit him, he still can throw out a real stinker when he’s asked to throw more than hand off against a decent defense. That’s Twinfan’s “brilliant” QB.
Dumbing down of the passing game = WCO, NoFear. Yards after the catch are important til they aren’t. Blind hatred serves no purpose but to show one’s bias.
Smith is what he is. To not play to what he does well would be beyond stupid.
When I characterized ONE pass in ONE game in 2009 as “brilliant”, NoFear has obsessed on that ever since. But he ignores that he was the numero uno guy saying W-L was the test, not QBR. Now that both are excelent, neither of them matter- if Smith is the QB..
Oh yeah, I forgot about that one. I was talking about you pronouncing Smith’s performance brilliant after most every game last year.
btw, yes, wins matter, but a win doesn’t necessarily mean the quarterback had a “brilliant” game as you would insist.
Another of the Big Lies from the Smith detractors . Alex has not been “eight years in the league as a starter”. It’s not even close. Just an attempt for some truth, OK?
Anyway, I’m going to concentrate on watching the Rominator go down in flames- Night all. Keep me posted on where Alex stands in the latest ratings that don’t count.
Jason Hill rides again: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/category/rumor-mill/
Alex is a conundrum to me. There are times when he is just electrifying. The last 4+ minutes of the Saints play off game is as good as it gets. Similarly in parts of the Eagles game that year, the kid was terrific. Quick decisions and throws and accurate too. Sometimes when his back is against the wall he just lights it up and comes out guns blazing. Then there are the times when he is indecisive, hesitant, overly conservative. I wonder if it’s because he is so cerebral, if he analyses the risk/reward in each given play and goes safe more often than not.
I don’t know but it’s a head scratcher.
That is true for all Quarterbacks in the NFL.
Both Drew Brees and Eli Manning have bad games every few weeks.
Last week Manning threw for 120 yards and his team was unable to overcome that and lost.
If Brees doesn’t throw for 3 scores his team loses because they can’t run and his defense sucks.
Just like baseball pitchers, quarterbacks all have bad days.
Good, bad or indifferent, we got hopefully 11 more games to figure out how far Smith can go . . .
Obama will win.
12th Man– I disagree with you on how good Smith is as a QB but I just read this entire thread and it’s clear that you post thoughtful comments that don’t have a specific agenda. You have a opinions, not an agenda. And that’s refreshing to read from someone on a blog. Just didn’t want that point to go unnoticed.
I appreciate that Flavor, thanks for making that point.
Weed is now legal in Colorado, the first state in the union to legalize. The slippery slope or a good move in the right direction to end the war on drugs?
And two more states legalize same sex marriage. Both will be legal everywhere, with some of the dead red states last to fall in line, of course. But every legislator knows the time is coming, it’s a case of “not on my watch”.
I agree with you, only a matter of time.