Well, here we go. A fresh start. Y’all may have noticed some missing shit. Rather than even bother trying to wade through the bullshit, I tossed the last 2 threads. Let’s not go there again, k?
Come on, people. I’m all for lively discussions, but let’s get real here. If you served, thanks for your service. If you are going through hard times, sorry to hear that. But we’re here to nominally talk about the Niners, and football in general. This down time for the last 3 weeks really sucks, and apprently the boredom creeps in, but really.
I guess I have to patrol this place a lot harder. Or just give up the ghost. I didn’t think I’d have to be a babysitter.
San Francisco 49ers Forever 
thanks
Whatever you feel is right, Chuck. I have business to attend to. Then I’ve got to help my friends feed the horse before winter sets in. Do what you have to do. I’ll read you, wherever.
http://video.search.yahoo.com/video/play?p=taylor+swift&tnr=21&vid=&turl=http%3A%2F%2Fts3.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DU.4691866024542226%26pid%3D15.1&rurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DVuNIsY6JdUw&sigr=11a3i273n&newfp=1&tit=Taylor+Swift+-+You+Belong+With+Me&back=http%3A%2F%2Fsearch.yahoo.com%2Fsearch%3Fei%3DUTF-8%26p%3Dtaylor%2Bswift&sigb=11msllgdb
OMG.
Good decision, Chuckles. If the, uh,animal droppings post been deleted when it should have been, there would have been no need to wipe out two threads. On to football..
Now- how ’bout that Alex Smith?
I want to be “fair and balanced” ,so since Denny isn’t here:
“Have we signed Peyton Manning yet”?
You were writing about horse droppings and cancer and Champion Trophies. I really missed those posts. I guess Chuck deleted them. You were writing?
Please don’t tell me how to run my blog, Twin.
Well, hopefully, you figured that out yourself, Chuck. You expect no reaction when two posters, including your friend Craig, are called “bunny rabbits”. I’m happy to move on, but my service and “hard times” are not what started that bullshit.
RT, while you help Ma and Pa Starrett feed the horse, I’ll be talking football again- as I’ve always tried to do…
When have you ever written about football, Jack? Show me your posts and write Chuck so he can show me. I want statements in writing from qualified experts that you have ever written on this blog about football.
Steven Jackson has been the backbone of the Rams for years, now his production is going down and his injury rate and age is going up. Apparently he was able to void the last year of his own contract and will be a free agent at the end of the year. Strange decision given the market for an older RB has been decreasing as the league has gone more to the air. Niners have drafted for the post Gore years. I am amazed Gore has been so productive, I expected Hunter to take over the starting role this year. If Gore wears down he still might but Gore’s carries are much less so it will be interesting to watch. Squawks have beast mode and the Cards have “insert name here” behind the worst O line in the league. I don’t see the Rams beating the Niners in either game, the Squawks are very capable of beating the Niners in their pit and the Cards have become a joke. Looks like 5-3 at worst to me the rest of the way. Key is beating Da Bears for seeding. Alex has never played 3 consecutive “good” games. The first half of the season has proven one thing, he and the rest of the O are wildly inconsistent. Niners need a bye and to be hot at the right time.
It’s astounding that he’s the 4th (or 7th by total QBR) rated QB ibn the league, isn’t it? I know that most of his detractors hate Dilfer because Trent has always supported Alex (and been right) but as Dilfer has correctly pointed out, Harbaugh’s offense does limit the QB to some extent- but it’s not all about the QB getting 300 yrards in this offense- it’s about what Smith is best at- smart, efficient, winning football. Alex would easily have surpassd 300 yards in several games of the past two years if that was the idea. He’s 20-6 since Harbaugh took over- as his detractors harped on when he was 19-31- THAT is the bottom line.
That’s your bottom line. I want another championship. One season of playoffs and 1-1 is my bottom line. All the in season wins get you is to the post season, then they don’t mean shit. Giants went 9-7 in season and 4-0 when it matters. They won 13 games last year, Niners won 14, who has the Lombardi?
The point was that the losing record was *all* on Smith and there are about 3,000 posts or more showing that POV- mostly on the Insider. I’m allowed, as far as I know, to talk about how Smith has been portayed by most blog commenters, wherever they post. Obviously, the “bottom bottom” line *is* winning a Super Bowl. But if that’s the only criteria, he has a lot of company.
Now, if that inconsistent bastard could return punts, he might have one.. hell, he’s still young. Maybe he’ll get 11 tries and win one. Uh, did we trade for Mr. one for eleven yet?
You will get no argument from me about bringing in Peyton Manning. I was and even in light of his amazing comeback still am against it. The Niners as a team have strength across the board, enough to be relevant for the next few years. Manning was too expensive and too risky. It would have meant going for broke this year and having overall less talent due to salary cap over the next few years. Not a good trade in my mind.
Alex is an average QB, maybe slightly better but not much. PFF has him at 14 which sounds about right to me. Being efficient is a good thing and a vast improvement, I don’t know if it will be enough against the best defenses and history says not as of now. You have an agenda that Alex was good and you knew it all along, bully for you but the “I told you so Schtick” is boring. I like the kid and am happy for him to have success, it’s good he get’s some vindication. It doesn’t make him a great QB, just an average/above average QB on a strong team ala Dilfer as you mentioned although Alex is better than Dilfer ever was. Is it enough? good question hence these debates.
Anybody else see a couple of wishbone formation runs against ARI? And Staley shifting to the outside of RT Davis. It didn’t fool anybody but it looked like fun. Good game to put it out on the field and on tape for the opponents scouting.
Too bad we didn’t get Kaep some real PT in the fourth quarter.
Makes no sense to keep Alex in in a blow out either way. Kap needs the experience.
We’re all waiting, 12th. And the NFL is littered with dozens of ‘bona fide’ QBs that haven’t won the big game, and a few who did that didn’t deserve to. Jim Kelly springs to mind. Dan Fouts and Marino as well. Throw in Rob Johnson and Trent Dildo and there you go.
The point being, the process of winning it all is not an easy one. And the Niners lost a HUGE shot last year when they couldn’t finish off the Giants. But that is last year. I have my reservations as well regarding Smith, but at this point he’s the ONLY guy that gives us a shot this year. For Smith’s couple bad games, what? Bench him? They can’t. Cappy coming in now would be disastrous. Smith may not win it all this year, but neither would Cappy. What happens next year is anyone’s guess. The Niners may stick with Alex, or they may go with Cappy if they feel he is the better alternative going forward. Neither would surprise me depending on how the rest of this season goes. The other theory is the Niners stick with Alex and trade Cappy. I doubt that one, but it could happen.
The point being, we’re playing the cards we have. What if’s and all that are great, but until it plays out on the field, we got bupkus. or this back-and-forth.
Too much being made of Alex’s QBR. In the ARI game two thirds of his passes went less than 5 yards in the air and nearly half of those were completed behind the LOS.
Now if they had a stat for handing off the ball…
That’s an absurd post-like the comparison or not, YAC by Rice, Taylor, and others sent Montana to the HOF.. Those bitching about the AZ game are the ones who bitched when the receivers didn’t get YAC because Smith didn’t lead them right. Look, get together, get your stories straight, and present just one,OK ?. . And then we had the most absurd posts of all, saying Smith dinked and dunked in the Championship game. Really, is there an alternate universe where a different game was played? Smith went deep, Manning dinked our DEFENSE apart with 58 passes.
If the Niners get a big enough lead, we’ll see Cappy. But the bring-him-in-for-a-play-here-and-there days are gone, NoFear. Harbaugh found out quickly that teams caught on real fast to that drive-killing shit.
Somewhere deep down insdide of me there’s the spark of an idea that Harbaugh wanted no part of that Giants game. The idea being to use that blowout loss for future reference whan they meet in the playoffs. The game certainly wasn’t as important to SF as it was to NY, as the Niners had 3 division games following that one, but the spots they used Cappy in were strange to say the least. Sure, it’s a risky gambit, but one that Harbaugh may have thought would be a[ppropriate. Lose the battle, win the war.
Call me crazy, who cares? At least we’re talking football.
I don’t think so. I’m sure that was one Harbaugh wanted to win badly. We just don’t have the offense when we need it. We have good games against not-so-good teams.
I never liked the idea of sticking Kaep in for a wildcat play here and there. Even when it worked the first couple of times. I suppose you have to stick it out there and run it in a game though if it’s going to be usable. But, I’m talking about playing Kaep the entire fourth quarter with a lead like we had against a team that was flat.
We may need him to come in at some point and he should be ready if possible.
Chuck, are you advocating not having these discussions???
I have said all season Alex should be the starter and I still think that. I disagree with you about Kap, I would put him in in mop up for game time experience, which we should have done twice, instead of exposing Alex to possible injury. I also disagree with you about putting Kap in for some plays each game. I think we should but with the ability to really be the QB rather than the pre-determined runner or hand off guy, ditto with the pre-determined “throw it to Moss” who was triple covered. I also think the timing of putting him in should be better thought out.
If Alex gets injured Kap has to play. I’m not convinced the Niners can win it all with either guy but am no less confident if Kap is QB.
The league history is littered with great QB’s who never made it, that’s true, but how many of those guys had a team as complete as this Niner team is?
No I’m not 12th. Sorry if you got that from something I posted. Yeah, I think mop-up duty is defintely something they should do with Cappy. And I said just that a few posts up. My problem, which NoFear alluded to as well, was the pick-and-choose spots they put Cappy in that didn’t help him OR the team. That’s my sticking point with it. The mix and match shit ainlt gonna fly. Even if it worked once against the Jets. Or Detroit. I can’t remember. I think he fumbled in the Jets game.
As far as good teams that didn’t win it all, the Vikings spring to mind,12th. They had a top-notch QB, a solid runing game, good WRs, and an overpowering defense. Yet they couldn’t win the last game. Buffalo certainly had enough talent and coaching to win it all. Getting there 4 times in a row was no fluke. One missed FG changed their fate forever.
Yeah no doubt the bounce of the irregular ball has it’s part to play. It’s caused heartbreak and Joy many a game. We will play the hand we have which was set in motion in the off season. Commenting, going to games and buying merchandise is about all we can do as fans. I appreciate the time and effort you give hosting a blog giving us blowhards a place to show our football knowledge, or lack thereof.
Buffalo beat the living shit out of the Giants in their 1st super bowl, but they just couldn’t score enough. That was the one they should have won. And that’s the reason this game is so hard to win it all. You have to have skill in a lot of positions, a smart coaching staff, and a little bit of luck.
Norcross makes the FG, Buffalo is a SB champ. The punt last year bounces a different way, the Niners are likely champs. If’s, but’s, and so what’s, but the truth remains, this is a very hard thing to do, and to simply throw the failure of not winning at Alex even now is disingenuous at best.
I don’t recall pinning everything on Alex for wins or losses???
No I don’t see that from you either.
NoFear, there are very few ‘elite’ teams. One win or one loss to them does not determine the season. Is Green Bay bemoaning their loss to SF? At home no less? No. Shit, they lost to Seattle. They’ve moved on. Fricking Minnesota is hitting the skids after a hot start. Do they trumpet their victory over us as some sort of validation to their season? No. They are fading. As is AZ. Detroit is 4-4. They may end up in the playoffs. The Giants lost to the Iggles and the goddamn Cowboys. Are they worried? No. Chicago 7-1? A bunch of smoke and mirrors. I don’t think that team is very good. Any team with Cutler is going to have problems in the end. But the point remains that the Niner record is 6-2 against the very same teams everyone else is playing. The Giants are 6-3. They have a little tougher schedule, but whatever.
The point being, no one is throwing Green Bay under the bus after their shakey start. Or the Giants. The Niners lose to NYG and you seem to think they’ll play just as bad the next time around. I don’t buy that. Look at Dallas. They’ve lost to anyone and everyone, yet they are perennial Super Bowl contenders. Just as everyone buys into their hype, you are just as ready to sell the Niners down the river when they don’t play perfectly.
Well, 12th your 10:45 response to Twin led me to think you were pinning the lack of super bowls at Alex’s feet. Alex’s playoff record IS 1-1, but that’s true of Harbaugh and the rest of the team as well.
unca chuck
That’s exactly what I read also.
I would like to know why all Forty-Niner blogs can’t just move on rather than revisit this topic every week ad nauseum.
Negative posts about Alex Smith rarely propose a reasonable alternative replacement for fear of ridicule.
If you lobby to replace our QB would like a realistic replacement
If you read what I post Tommy I am consistent in advocating for Alex to start. Why does that preclude pointing out areas where he could be better or playcalling that would better suit his skill set?
No, not the case. The counterpoint was to Twin pushing the wins v losses record as though Alex is the focal point for the teams record. It’s a position the Alex cheerleaders have taken “look at the wins record, Alex must be great”. Any criticism of his play is viewed through this “but we won” lens. Sorry but I have criticised Montana, Young, Garcia and on down the line over the years, Alex will get the same if I think there is reason. I guess it’s how pre-disposed your opinion is as to how that comment was seen. Twin stated some record facts and so did I, that’s all, nothing more.
Harbs has been with the team 1 year and we went to the NFC champ game, pretty good record. Our QB of 8 years likewise took us to the NFC champ game. The why’s and wherefore’s are what sustains all Niner blogs.
I’m not a big fan of Alex as a QB but I’m not a hater either.He is up and down at the position which is better than the down and down we used to get. People who claim they always knew he was a good QB are full of it. It just turned out that with better players and coaching and a huge dose of guts he has managed to keep the job, that’s a far cry from being Mr. Untouchable with any negative comment.
Somebody tell Grumpy a football discussion has broken out around here.
The Niners are set up to succeed yeah, maybe 5-3, 6-2 in the second half. NFL gave our players/team a break with the Looong layoff in the middle of the season even if us fans got bored shitless. Players gotta love it. Last year not so much with the cross-country flight for a Thursday game against the other Harbaugh. Just a hypin’ marketing ploy to boost attention to the league. So the thing that we seemed to resent- the long mid-season break- could be the league’s way of showing a little respect.
The point to all this? Well, we are 6-2 midway through the season.
They are doing a little better than I thought given the tough early games. No, it hasn’t been perfect, but they’ve won the games they should have for the most part, and they have a little easier schedule down the stretch here.
So, 12-4 or 13-3 isn’t out of the question. I had them at 11-5.
Hve you heard Worthlessberger talking lately, NoFear? He bemonas the fact that his offense is a more dink and dunk style offense. Thing is, though, they are winning.
QBR is what it is. Someone trying to make sense out of the myriad stats in a given game or season. Like a million have said before this, wins and losses mean more than stats. Steve DeBerg used to be up there every year statistically. As did Archie Manning. Being forced to throw 55 times in a game is rarely a good idea. Stats don’t tell the whole story. YPA? Sure. TD/Int ratio? That helps. QBR bases its rating on more than simply yards per game. FWIW.
Fun stat, the last QB who threw for the most yards in a season and won the NFL championship in the same year? Johnny Unitas in 1959.
Huge yards=no running game=lose in the playoffs, it’s an almost universal constant. Who is asking for huge yards?
Well LeBeau is keeping them in the game despite injuries, and this weekend Wallace took one in on his freakish speed alone. Roethlisberger can’t get a two count to throw much less let a deep route develop. The short game is all they’ve got passing but it looks like their running game is showing signs of life lately. Think they’re not worried? Or the NYG’s aren’t worried that they find themselves playing like shit lately?
QBR for one game is meaningless. But it’s always touted if it makes Alex look good. He got sacked twice only because he held the ball too long and twice got delay penalties. As I mentioned earlier he threw mostly can’t miss passes behind the LOS or within five yards of it but QBR is all I see from the poor Alex crowd.
He’s the weakest link in the system going for the championship. Can the defense and special teams keep us in all the games left so check downs and hand offs are enough? Gore probably won’t last till the end. What then?
Hunter, Jacobs, and Rick James can carry the load if Gore goes down. NoFear, do you think our chances are hurt if Smith goes down to injury? Or helped?
Like I said, QBR is what it is. A better read on quarterbacks rather than strictly passing yards. Game to game? Who cares? It’s like a batter having a great day at the plate. Take it for what it’s worth, but it draws no conclusion about what happens the next game. BUT, a season’s worth of numbers usually mean something. Smith was 9th last year. Right about where he should be. Should he incrementally improve this year, great. 5th or 6th should be enough to go all the way. He’s not going to throw 300 consistently. He isn’t being ASKED to. Aikman, Montana, Young, and a bunch of other QBs were not tasked to go out and throw 50 times a game like Marino and Fouts were. You bemoan QBR, but I hear from THOUSANDS of bloggers who complain that Smith doesn’t put up Brees or Brady-like numbers. He NEVER will. Why? Because they don’t have consistent running games. The Niner run game is the envy of the league.
Rick James :0
NoFear is just one of many who have trotted out Smith’s rating when it was weighted down by his rookie and injury years. His rating has been above 90 ever since Rayes was fired- so now they say it’s “misleading” or the receivers deserve the credit, or he pads it, or….any piece of nonsense that will justify a position that is totally unsupportable by fact.
“QBR for one game is meaningless.” Funny shit. What is it for 33 games ? Misleading, I guess.
Read the next sentence, skippy.
And?
Maybe I’m referencing the wrong thing. My point is in my above post:
” Like I said, QBR is what it is. A better read on quarterbacks rather than strictly passing yards. Game to game? Who cares? It’s like a batter having a great day at the plate. Take it for what it’s worth, but it draws no conclusion about what happens the next game. BUT, a season’s worth of numbers usually mean something. “
Like Pablo hitting 3 hrs in the 1st game of the WS. You can’t project forward from that point.
Smith’s numbers are all over the place week to week. What do you make of that?
Rating:
125.6
107.7
81.1
78.1
156.2
43.1
74.5
157.1
ESPN’s QBR:
83.5
79.4
52.9
46.4
99.2
24.8
35.3
92.0
For whatever reason, ESPNs numbers make Smith out to be more inconsistent than the traditional QBR does.
Still these numbers smack of some inconsistency on Smith’s part. Sacrilege, I know.
The ESPN numbers are generally lower. Alex is 7th in the league by that ruler, which is pretty good in my opinion. For whether he is inconsistent, what we really need is a detailed statistical analysis of the standard deviation for each QB’s data set. The larger the SD the more variation from week to week. And no, I’m not volunteering – I could hack the math, but I just don’t have the time. I suspect though that Alex’s inconsistency is a little bigger, but only marginally.
7th is pretty good? Hard to argue with that. 4th is even better and that’s from the rating measurement that has been used to rate QBs throughout his career. But, yeah, either way, it’s actually fair to say it’s “pretty good”. Don’t say “good” though, that will get a guy in big trouble…
Here’s the link for TQBR btw – notice Peyton leads by a comfortable margin, with a number of just 85.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr
This QBR stuff is a joke. Anyone seriously believe Alex is better than Eli and Drew? Better at what, throwing safe passes? That’s how they are rated. Ok hands up everyone that would rather have Alex Smith over Drew Brees or Eli Manning. If I need a proven QB to win a game for me who would I choose, hmmmm, I’m thinking, I’m thinking.
No, I don’t deny his poor games.I’m honest about his performances. Those saying otherwise are fabricating what I’ve posted. It’s the dishonesty of those who dismiss his overall performance in the post-Raye era who need some fact checking performed.
its true you acknowledge his poor games.
As far as Kappy, it took the league about one minute to review the video and defend against him. He might be a good QB someday, but he wasn’t even the clear 2 or even 3 until late in the preseason. Maybe the two worst play decisions in the last year and a half were the calls inserting Kappy toward the end of two long drives early in the NY game, fucking up both. He needs to grab some pine and learn.
Before someone suffers Romnesia and accuses me of ignoring Smith’s awful game, I posted about his terrible performance about 6 times during the game. I’d mention his 43.1 QB rating for that game, but that’s meaningless for just one game, right?
I agree with you on this point Twin, the timing of putting in Kap was atrocious, Alex was the hot hand and the drives were solid. Absolutely killed momentum in those instances.
I don’t agree that the plays he was given reflect his QB ability, he did as he was told. Bad play calling and worse timing.
I was excited about the possibilities after that Jets game. So maybe I’m being too hard him. Look, I’ve rooted for this team since ’74, when I got out here. I rooted for them when Smith sat and Hill, Sullivan, whoever, was under center. If Alex gets benched and Kappy takes over, I’ll root for them then. I’ve just liked Smith since I saw him in the Fiesta Bowl, and always thought he’d be a top NFL QB. If I think that opinion has been vindicated, well, I do think that. Surely you’ve all followed the Insider, so if an Alex lover thinks some folks should be eating a litlle crow, it’s hard to disagree. But I’ll tone down the Valentine.
Ok deal.
Okay, don’t say I never did anything for you guys! WARNING: Math ahead…
Here is the raw data for ESPN TQBR for 12 QBs I selected – I don’t have time to do everyone.
Peyton Manning: 94.4,21.3,56.0,92.0,91.0,73.4,96.3,94.7
Tom Brady: 90.4,30.6,86.2,96.5,82.1,72.0,72.1,98.4
Andrew Luck: 39.2,95.7,82.0,68.2,40.4,69.2,68.2,89.1
Aaron Rodgers: 55.1,29.3,54.3,86.8,54.7,95.8,95.5,70.4,81.7
Alex Smith: 83.5,79.4,52.9,46.4,99.2,24.8,35.3,92.0
Eli Manning: 53.2,59.3,93.1,55.8,95.2,96.0,80.2,48.2,14.2
Drew Brees: 38.7,41.9,24.7,82.3,83.7,95.3,24.2,88.5
Tony Romo: 82.8,38.3,43.4,14.2,59.2,85.1,49.9,79.6
Jay Cutler: 62.0,4.7,35.7,81.1,71.8,53.1,37.5,59.0
Christian Ponder: 66.2,45.9,89.9,64.8,78.6,37.3,18.4,13.6,11.1
Philip Rivers: 70.7,84.7,27.8,81.1,47.6,2.6,20.0,94.5
Mark Sanchez: 97.1,46.4,34.3,2.8,10.0,86.6,45.1,12.1
Now here is the statistical analysis. Remember mean here is not the same as the TQBR for a season, because the number of attempts varies by game. But the SD is interesting.
Peyton Manning: Mean 77.39, Standard Deviation 26.63
Tom Brady: Mean 78.54, Standard Deviation 21.75
Andrew Luck: Mean 69.00, Standard Deviation 20.68
Aaron Rodgers: Mean 69.29, Standard Deviation 22.61
Alex Smith: Mean 64.19, Standard Deviation 27.86
Eli Manning: Mean 66.13, Standard Deviation 27.40
Drew Brees: Mean 59.91, Standard Deviation 30.30
Tony Romo: Mean 56.56, Standard Deviation 25.03
Jay Cutler: Mean 50.61, Standard Deviation 24.16
Christian Ponder: Mean 47.31, Standard Deviation 29.24
Philip Rivers: Mean 53.63, Standard Deviation 34.06
Mark Sanchez: Mean 41.80, Standard Deviation 34.99
Clearly Alex is not THAT inconsistent. Some guys are better – mostly guys you’d expect, though Luck is doing shockingly well for a rookie.
The difference in consistency between Alex and either Peyton and Eli is so small as to be statistically insignificant.
Romo and Cutler are a little more consistent. As in consistently, they suck. Brees and Ponder are both significantly more inconsistent this season. And Rivers and Sanchez, as we all knew, are fucking awful.
By my reading of these tea leaves, Alex is having a good year, and is a good quarterback. Not great, but certainly good.
Hmmm. http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr/_/sort/actionPlays
And in the clutch http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr/_/sort/cwepaTotal
13 ain’t bad, when your offense expects to lean on the ground game. But look at Luck. They put a team around him, that kid will be special.
I’m not knocking 13, a little above mid pack in the clutch is decent. I’m knocking these ratings they come up with. Game film is the fairest way to analyse how a player is doing.
It’s nice to say Alex is number 4 or 9 or whatever, but just a quick glance down the list has more skilled players who have less talent around them.
anticipated points lost due to taking a sack http://espn.go.com/nfl/qbr/_/sort/cwepaSackedCondensed
Look at who comes in 30 and 34 here. Interesting.
Gunslingers, they try to extend the play, works more often than not. It all comes down to attempts. The less an efficient QB has the ball the better he will score on these ratings.
It’s why I said they are a joke, if a QB throws 2 or 3 times the passes as another guy, even if he is successful, he will have more TO and sacks.
Once you eliminate the hand offs the picture looks a little different. Agreed hand offs are a part of a QB job, but the amount of hand offs due to our heavy run game skew the QBR by a country mile.
There is also varying levels of defenses faced, inconsistency within a game, all kinds of factors. What the data shows though, is that Alex is not exceptionally more inconsistent than most other second tier QBs, or even the Manning boys. QBs have up and down games.
What it shows is he is not wildly inconsistent in the method in which he plays. He tends to play conservatively win or lose.
I love this: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/11/06/poll-of-players-rex-ryan-is-nfls-most-overrated-coach/
He looks like Clarence the cross eyed lion in this pic.
Since total QBR is the rating after taking into account the other numbers, one has to be quite inventive to dispute that he’s been ( by Total QBR) the 7th best QB through 8 games. Better than Eli, for one.
Does this mean you think Alex is a better QB than Eli?
Right now at 6-2 the Forty-Niners are better than the Giants at 6-3.
They would be seeded higher and get the bye. Alex has his team in a better place than Eli.
The team has the team in a better place and it didn’t answer the question.
I’ll say no. But numbers are numbers. When the Warriors traded Chris Webber for Tom Googs Googliotta, their numbers were similar, but the eye test was a different story.
No, it means he’s been better through 8 games. I said that already.
It doesn’t mean that at all Twin. Alex has thrown way less passes than Eli but those he has thrown were efficient, also QBR takes into account success at handing off the ball and since we run more than the Giants that also weights the results. So as an indicator of which QB is better the Quarter Back Rating System has some major problems. Alex is generally doing well, but his ceiling as an individual player is not close to some of the players listed below him. It’s just a cool thing to say Alex is better than Drew or Eli on the QBR, but it doesn’t pass the sniff test does it?
Chucks point is also right.
Actually, your rationalizions don’t pass the sniff test. 12. He’s rated higher in the rating system that does not take into account handing off the ball. 7th is actually conservative. I agree that Total QBR has problems. He’s really 4th best so far this year and top 10 since early 2010. The first tier is Rodgers, PManning, Brees, Brady, Roethwhatever. Second tier is Eli, Schaub, Smith, Ryan, Romo,Stafford.
Obviously, this is all just my opinion, but I’ve heard the “sniff test” argument against other good players in other sports,and all it means is “I don’t care what the facts show”. I’m sorry, but the QBR was good enough when Smith’s was low, it’s good enough now…
I would not put Romo in the second tier. He makes plays – but too many of them are bad ones. And Stafford is not having a good year.
Luck OTOH, might buy his way into that club pretty soon. He has been preternaturally steady for a rookie.
I didn’t care about QBR when it was low or high Twin. Look at each category and you will see Alex is not listed in the top 10 in any of them. What it means is a lot of mediocrity and few mistakes = a high QBR.
Switch worthless and Eli and toss Romo out and I agree.
“What it means is a lot of mediocrity and few mistakes = a high QBR” That’s your characterization .I find it interesting that making few mistakes is considered almost a flaw. Not fumbling and not throwing the ball to the wrong team involves skill and toughness. Peyton Manning has said that the single most important thing as an offense is still having the ball when the play has ended.
Anyway, It’s gonna be a rockin’ time in Kenya tonight 😉
Seems like a reasonable characterization to me twin. Obama should win today in a close race.
Will Tony Romo be with Dallas beyond 2013? http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/11/06/looking-at-romos-future-in-dallas/
I sure hope so. He and Jerry Jerkoff are what’s keeping Dallas Dallas.
Jeruhh says he will stay as GM no matter what. Best news I’ve had all day.
That’s the big lie about QBRs. It’s way too dependent on scheme, play calling, run game strength, receivers’ ability, and too many things that measure a team’s offense more than its passer.
After all the stats, eight years in the league as a starter, the dumbing down of the passing game to suit him, he still can throw out a real stinker when he’s asked to throw more than hand off against a decent defense. That’s Twinfan’s “brilliant” QB.
Dumbing down of the passing game = WCO, NoFear. Yards after the catch are important til they aren’t. Blind hatred serves no purpose but to show one’s bias.
Smith is what he is. To not play to what he does well would be beyond stupid.
When I characterized ONE pass in ONE game in 2009 as “brilliant”, NoFear has obsessed on that ever since. But he ignores that he was the numero uno guy saying W-L was the test, not QBR. Now that both are excelent, neither of them matter- if Smith is the QB..
Oh yeah, I forgot about that one. I was talking about you pronouncing Smith’s performance brilliant after most every game last year.
btw, yes, wins matter, but a win doesn’t necessarily mean the quarterback had a “brilliant” game as you would insist.
Another of the Big Lies from the Smith detractors . Alex has not been “eight years in the league as a starter”. It’s not even close. Just an attempt for some truth, OK?
Anyway, I’m going to concentrate on watching the Rominator go down in flames- Night all. Keep me posted on where Alex stands in the latest ratings that don’t count.
Jason Hill rides again: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/category/rumor-mill/
Alex is a conundrum to me. There are times when he is just electrifying. The last 4+ minutes of the Saints play off game is as good as it gets. Similarly in parts of the Eagles game that year, the kid was terrific. Quick decisions and throws and accurate too. Sometimes when his back is against the wall he just lights it up and comes out guns blazing. Then there are the times when he is indecisive, hesitant, overly conservative. I wonder if it’s because he is so cerebral, if he analyses the risk/reward in each given play and goes safe more often than not.
I don’t know but it’s a head scratcher.
That is true for all Quarterbacks in the NFL.
Both Drew Brees and Eli Manning have bad games every few weeks.
Last week Manning threw for 120 yards and his team was unable to overcome that and lost.
If Brees doesn’t throw for 3 scores his team loses because they can’t run and his defense sucks.
Just like baseball pitchers, quarterbacks all have bad days.
Good, bad or indifferent, we got hopefully 11 more games to figure out how far Smith can go . . .
Obama will win.
12th Man– I disagree with you on how good Smith is as a QB but I just read this entire thread and it’s clear that you post thoughtful comments that don’t have a specific agenda. You have a opinions, not an agenda. And that’s refreshing to read from someone on a blog. Just didn’t want that point to go unnoticed.
I appreciate that Flavor, thanks for making that point.
Weed is now legal in Colorado, the first state in the union to legalize. The slippery slope or a good move in the right direction to end the war on drugs?
And two more states legalize same sex marriage. Both will be legal everywhere, with some of the dead red states last to fall in line, of course. But every legislator knows the time is coming, it’s a case of “not on my watch”.
I agree with you, only a matter of time.
Don’t get me started on the ‘drug war’ as it applies to pot. It’s a total waste of money. Ca alones spends billions upon billions of dollars on stopping growers to no avail.
I don’t use it and don’t really agree with it’s use outside of medical but I’m realist enough to see what we have been doing has been counter productive. Times change and it’s time to legalize. It will be interesting to see what the Feds do in Colorado.
The whole drug war needs to be rethought. It is a near trillion dollar money pit that has borne little payoff but to put minorities in jail.
Shit, nevermind. Back to Alex . . .
That’s the rub 12th. Inconsistency. Look back to 3-4 years ago, and it seemed as if every screen play that the Niners ran either resulted in a pass skipping off Gore’s hands for a pick, or shit just didn’t work right and resulted in a fumble by Alex. They’ve completely removed the screen from the playbook. That takes away the ability of the Niners to slow down certain defenses like Minn and NYG who have very aggressive penetrating LBs. The Niners still run bubble screens with the WRs (Crabs) but the traditional RB screen is gone.
Hunter is utilized in the screen game at times. Should be called more often as they have mobile and agile offensive linemen.
Anyhow, like I said, 12-4 or even 13-3 is certainly in the realm of possibility, and beating the Bears would line these guys up for the #2 seed and a 1st round bye if all goes according to plan.
If that’s the case, I like our chances in getting to the Super Bowl.
I don’t know that it’s been shown why they run fewer screens. There are many versions of the WCO, it’s not like there’s one that all teams follow. Smith’s accuracy on short throws would seem to rule out any theory that he’s why Harbaugh/Roman don’t use them much. More likely, IMO, is that it’s not a big part of their offense.
But bottom line on the QB position and how the team has fared with the Harbaugh/Roman/Smith combo is that I see no way they’re better than 20-6 if Johnny Joe God was the QB. It goes against everything that is preached by every coach at every level that ball security is not the Number One priority. Too often mistake free football is not recoginized as involving skill.
Again, this is just my opinion. Added note on the screen game- Gore was gettting the shit beat out him when he getting the same load running as he is now plus getting about 50 receptions a year. Last year was the first year played all 16 (plus 2 in the postseason) since 2006.
Some QBs have the knack of throwing a little lob over the D Lineman’s outstretched arms.
Alex has never mastered that and throws a straighter high throw that is disaster if the receiver deflects it trying to make the catch which they often do.
Well, that could be a strategic move by the coaches to get less wear and tear on Gore, or it could be they just don’t like the risk of running screens. They DO work, but like you said Gore averaged around 50 receptions before Harbaugh got here. That’s a lot of additional pounding. He had 16 catches last year, and is likely to get around 30 this year. A big difference. But there ARE more passes (by a lot) going to the WRs now. Markedly so this year due to the addition of Manningham and Moss, and the job that Crabs is doing so far. VDs numbers are down, but that is because VD is now doubled on nearly every play.
What does it mean? Well, if they can keep moving the chains with these short to mid range passes, keep the running game on track, then all is good. The problems may arise if they have to come back from deficits. They are working on the longer passing game, and it has been a mixed bag of results. I thik the Niners will ground and pound for the first few series and then take to the air against the Rams.
I haven’t smoked pot for over 30 years. I don’t like it. I would not smoke it if it were legal. But, I’ve always thought it should be legal, it just makes too much sense.
No one uses it over here, mostly. Booze & meth yes plenty
I said we’d go 14-2 this year and while I recognize we’d have to run the table to get there, i think it’s a possibility. I’m actually not that worried about the Chicago Mon night game since it’s at home and NE has hardly been unbeatable this year. The two games I’m most worried about the road game with the Lambs and the 2nd to last game vs Seattle (in Seattle)–division games on the road are tough and these 2 teams, as all of you know, are better than their indicated records……
Yeah, I’m completely not behind the Bears. They’ll likely go 1-5 these next 6. If they can go 3-3 vs those teams, they’re better than I thought. They’ve had a weak schedule, and the Niners should beat them with relative ease. The Rams are a mess. I don’t think the game there will be much of a challenge.
Saints? Well, they are playing a little better (albeit vs Philly), and they have a big score to settle with the NIners with all the bounty shit that happened in the playoffs last year, and the playoff loss. That could turn into a shootout. The biggest obstacle is that Seattle game. NE in NE? I guess if it’s a blizzard there might be problems, but weather usually favors the team that can run, and that certainly isn’t the Pats.
Pats are good in the snow, they have to be.
Not true that Vernon is doubled on most every play. He is in protection more and just doesn’t get the looks when he’s out in the pattern. Whether that’s play calling or Smith just not looking for him I can’t say. But I can say he’s open on a lot of plays that Smith just doesn’t look his way.
Well, VD usually lines up to the right side, so the opportunities should be there if he isn’t doubled. I by no means have seen enough either way to know what’s happening, but some of the early games, he was doubled over and under. Also, he’s consistently getting safety coverage, whereas earlier in his career he saw more LB coverage.
You got that coaches feed, right, NoFear? I haven’t seen enough downfield coverage to know either way, but they have shown him doubled once in a while.
Yeah, the all-22 and end zone angles. It’s impossible from the TV’s focus on the ball unless they isolate the play for replay sometimes you get a better look.
Vernon is still the most effective receiver with 4 TDs and gaining 15 yards per reception is top of the charts. Crabs and Manningham are eating into the balls available pretty big. And even Moss is getting some of the short stuff.
I knew it would be hard to keep everyone happy with the addition of Manningham and Moss but I didn’t think Davis would be the odd man out.
Well, the knock for the past 7 years was not enough balls to the WRs. I for one am glad to see them getting catches. Manningham has been solid. He’s done what has been asked. Moss is Moss. He gets double covered every time. The fact he’s making people miss is all the better. I’d like to see him get more throws in his direction. Crabs has been a mini-revelation. He’s on pace for his best season yet (~80 catches for around 900 yards and 6 TDs). Nothing earthshaking, but he has been looked at more in the red zone than in recent memory. VD should get more targets in the red zone as well. Although that is when he usually gets jammed and sat on.
The goal going forward is to get Crabs, Moss and Manningham all comfortable in the offense being run. We ain’t going air Coryell here. As I’ve said before, 150 rushing, 250 passing, and protect the ball. Do that, and this team has a real shot at winning it all. The D should be able to get enough rest if this shit keeps going as-is. 3rd down conversions have improved, and ST is coming around after a shakey start. If Smith keeps playing the way he has, then the Niners will go 6-2 or better the rest of the way.
The 2 games these guys lost, the coaching staff went away from the run and it hurt them. Get back on point and the results should be there.
One of our weaknesses last year was not throwing to the WR enough, focusing on VD. That is something they have gotten better at. As other teams have focused on VD and the running game other receivers have had success. The pendulum will swing back and VD will get his catches as defenses have to cover more viable targets. I’m looking forward to the offense continuing to develop.
Smith and Davis have been far too sucessful since 2009 to even suggest that Smith doesn’t look for him. Actually, as Roman has said,teams have “designed take-away-that-tight-end game plans” and Davis has said that he’s just not been open: “”Nothing’s there,” Davis said. “When I run my corner routes, the cornerback is dropping to the corner. They are just taking stuff away, some of my explosive routes and stuff….I don’t know what to do. I run my routes hard to get open, but there’s nothing there.”
You’d have us write Davis off the rest of the season as a decoy then? “Brilliant!”
They’ve hit the deep seam and sideline go route too many times for defenses to ignore it. Of course they defend it now. That’s the game. The defenses’ expectation also opens up other things. You know, like play action off a run play that’s working. Or did you expect Davis to come out and say “they’ve got our money plays covered so we’re going to do x, y, and z now.” ?
Twinfan says of course Smith is looking at Davis. Yet I watch the games and see Davis open and Smith’s back to him waiting for Crabs to push his guy past the sticks and turn back or waiting for that shallow slant. Who to believe? Twinfan or my lying eyes? It’s a tough one. Yeah, but I think I’m going with what I see instead of the guy who backs Smith from force of habit.
I’m reporting what Davis and the OC say, pal, Who am I to believe? Davis and Roman or NoFear? Next…
Roman also says Seattle and the Giants doubled VD. I never proposed anything, I reported facts as told by Davis and Roman. I have no doubt that NoFear believes that he sees VD open and Smith ignoring him. Actually, that’s been true one time,anyway, Davis was open when Smith opted to go to Walker for a 12 yard TD instead. Harbaugh said the Seattle game was one of Vernon’s best, even though he didn’t catch a pass- they had him blocking and he was outstanding, That’s from Harbaugh, not twinfan, OK? Nofear needs to discuss this with Harbaugh, VD, and Roman. They seem to think VD is not getting open, as VD himself says. Make sure they know your suggestions for the offense come from a Nolan disciple..
Harbaugh said Smith is elite and we were never looking at Peyton Manning. Did you take that to the bank, too? Of course, you did.
I never said they weren’t looking at Manning and I specifically said at time of the “elite” remark (before the regular season Giant’s game) that Harbaugh was saying it to motivate **** as Manning had just gone through his own “elite QB” kerfuffle. I added that **** was NOT elite- yet.
Once again, you suffer from Romnesia or you are fabricating what I’ve said. I’ll give you the benefit of the doubt and go with Romnesia…
In the immortal words if Mike Nolan:
“I;ve got to go look at the tape”
Wish I could
http://www.thepostgame.com/blog/men-action/201211/how-oregon-coach-chip-kelly-can-spark-moneyball-revolution-nfl
Interesting argument, if you get past the Duck fangasm. Personally, I’d like to see someone try it out. I trust math more than I trust conventional wisdom.
Ditto
Great article to spur debate. I’ve been capping on coaches all week because I keep seeing situations (3) where kicking a FG on 4th down deep in enemy territory gives a 6 point lead when a 1st down allows the game to end in the victory formation. Two of those timid coaches lost their game. One was the LSU-Alabama game.
It amazes me that this blog spends so much time talking about Alex Smith. It’s obsessively weird. Every fucking day all day long. And I don’t fault Chuck, he is doing his best to steer the conversation into something else football related. You guys just don’t follow. Chuck is tireless in his efforts with new threads, as a blog owner/writer I know how difficult it is to come up with new topics each day for the coconut-heads to kick around. I know all this daily shit gets carried on with Denny’s idiotic mantra’s about whether we “signed Peyton Manning yet” and Twin obviously spends a lot of time bringing up Smith and there are tangent-convo’s from that. And Twin, don’t give me any shit about comparing you to Denny, I’m not doing that. You two are just the two guys who bring him up the most Fact.
I just don’t get why there isn’t more discussion about the rest of the team or just football in general.
Actually, Phil is at his best in his little corner of the blog when he compiles all of the “score prediction” posts. That is literally the best thing about this blog sometimes………
If the only thing to discuss on this blog is Alex Smith then so be it, keep kicking the same shit around. But there seems to be a lot of you guys who know a decent amount about football. How about we spend some time on some other topics? Smith vs Manning and “Smith vs who-liked-him first” and all that shit is so 100% played out. It’s beyond played out, it’s just dead. It just drags the blog down when all that gets discussed is the same stupid shit over and over again…….
Put it this way, if all we talked about at The Flap ever day was Barry Zito, all day every day forever and ever, wouldn’t that shit get a little old?
Sorry CHuck, not trying to ruffle feathers but I wanted to just put this out there……..
Careful I might make a call like 27-7 Niners vs the Rams.
Yeah the focus on Alex I don’t go there…
Yeah, we should beat the Lambs pretty comfortably. Their defense is not *that bad* statistically – but this is a case where i think stats are biased. How many yards and points does it take to beat a team with a lousy offense? Enough to get a comfortable lead, and then you run out the clock. I think we get 240 yards passing, 210 rushing, and win 31-3.
Actually, if one paid attention even a little it, I haven’t posted here often enough to bring him up the most. When I notice a totally moronic post dismissing his game against AZ because of YAC, I do speak up….
FACT- every football blog obsesses on the QB. Fans obsess on the QB. Fans obsess on the second string QB. That will always be so. Now I’m sure you have something to say about Darcel McBath’s play last week, right?
It’s true that the starting QB in the NFL gets the most attention on the team. But 99% of ALL the attention? Fuck that. Twin, you are as guilty as Denny, for different reasons, of sustaining all of this Alex Smith ad nauseum bullshit.
And I’m owning it too, I talk about him a lot here.
I’m just trying to stop the insanity, and that’s what it feels like, when every fucking day here feels like *Aex Smith Day–all day Alex all the time*…….
And sorry, but you’re clueless about your own posts if you think you aren’t the blogger who carries this shit on the *second most*.
Just let it go dude, Denny is a nut, it doesn’t mean you have to pick ’em up and eat them, too……….
Alex Smith is the gift to blog owners that keeps on giving! It happens on every 49er blog.
Again, I go too long without posting at all for your allegation to be true. Your allegation is not based on fact. But I’m totally up for an experiment. The game is Sunday, there’s no fucking reason at all to discuss Smith or the 49er QB position at all. So I propose that his name, any other 49er QBs name, or the 49er QB position be verboten for discussion of any kind. Mention Smith and go to jail.
How about Fangio’s defense? The pass rush has been very inconsistent. We saw what it did to Skelton ( a lot of his yards were in junk time). But the loss to Minnesota was in large part because they hardly touched Ponder, who’s more mobile than Skelton, but Fangio didn’t even have his guys going after him. He constently threw late over the middle and got away with it because they were rarely near him. The kid was begging to throw the ball to us…
To be fair (if I must…), Twin does not usually start the Alex Smith debates – he is usually the 2nd one into the fray.
Sometimes I wonder if the Ravens’ blogs bitch about Flacco quite as much as we do about Alex. I suspect they probably do. Similar teams, brothers for coaches, somewhat similar QBs – though ours is having a little bit better year.
I’m not going to go back and count them, they’re there for all to see, but I’d guess that 90-95% of Twin’s posts are about Alex Smith. If that’s not obsessing on a single player here, I don’t know what is.
and then to *be fair* I’d say that 98-99% of Dennis posts are about Alex Smith or have some reference to Alex Smith in them.
and all that does is take me back to my 8:25pm post from last night……
and Twin, you *proposal* of not mentioning his name is ludicrous. All I was suggesting is that the blog might consider not obsessing on him 24/7. Not referencing him even once during the game makes no sense at all………
You need to read the post, Flavoro. I said *until* game time.
When I do post it’s almost always about **** and none of Flavor’s business that I do. But that wasn’t what he said. Again-take notes- I go long periods without posting here at all so Flavoro’s allegation doesn’t pass that “sniff test “
So with all that said, you may reach me in my cave on Karpathos island, let me know when it’s game time.
Say hi to Nate Schierholtz at the cave!
Grump. that’s a pretty good article. It reminds me of a ram game that Nolan was coaching and he has 4th and goal with 55 seconds left, and a one point lead. The Niners were running the ball down their throat, and the Rams were gassed on D. Nolan kicks the FG to give the Niners a 4 pt lead, and the Rams promptly march down the field, score a TD and win the game. At the time I was pissed because the Rams D was totally on their heels, and an 8 pt lead would have been a lot more demoralizuing than 4. Hey, the Rams could have tied it and won anyway, but the decision really was lame. The problem is, a lot of times going conservative still works anyway. The same situation came up in the Dallas Atl game and they kicked the FG with a 3 point lead.
Another thing which you see all the time is teams down around the 35-38 yard line. A little too far to try the FG, but so many times you see the punt go into the end zone for an 15-18 yard net punt. If its 4th and short, why not go for it?
I remember the Ram game and thinking the same thing, too conservative. I think Harbaugh would do the same thing though.
Nolan also called a time out. Chip Kelly would not do that. The Rams were gassed, Nolan had no killer instinct, he calls a TO which gives them a rest and then goes for a FG on 4th and 6 inches deep in Ram territory. It’s not just Nolan, coaches are so unprepared for that situation it is rediculous.
I think too often coaches will go with the ‘safe’ call, which is what everyone else would do in that situation. A guy who is a bit of a dick has an advantage, in this case, because he doesn’t give a shit what anyone else thinks. So Belichick, maybe Payton, maybe Rexoid. Of course, Rex won’t ever get that first down, because the Jets suck so bad they defy math. But if you have any kind of offense it sounds like it’s worth paying attention here.
I will say this for Nolan, he did try the onsides kick enough. Partly because Nedney was so good at it, but he was willing to gamble there. He did not trust the offense on fourth and short though – and that was not about passing, IIRC. Our run game repeatedly would fail to get a yard in that situation. We had problems for the longest time in short yardage – seemed like the defense ALWAYS got under our pad level. So you have to consider that when judging him.
I would hope Harbaugh would read this article and rethink his conservatism on 3rd and 4th down. Hope, but not expect. Most coaches are ultimately reactive, and as long as he is winning, he may be unwilling to change anything.
Seem’s to me Harbs is conservative by nature but has been evolving the offense trying different things out so maybe.
Yes, and I hope so.
Most every NFL head coach is on the hot seat to some degree. That makes them risk averse. Miss the field goal it’s on the kicker. Go for it and lose possession and maybe the game, the loss is on that decision.
Most fans would always choose to go for it. They have an unrealistic view of the capabilities of their teams in most cases. And the go for it play is much more exciting.
But they are generally no judge for the condition of the players, the prevailing attitudes or the flow of the game. Let alone how to get back in if the play goes bad and the other team ends up putting points on the board. Even if only three, that’s a six point mistake and the owner’s not likely to understand the math behind the decision on those times when it does cost the game.
The HC also knows what kind of team he has and who they’re matched up against. In some cases, even better than the fans think they do. If he has a team that plays pretty solid defense and field position with a weak passing game, he knows he has a much harder time playing catch up then keeping the other guys from scoring.
The thing is, the math doesn’t seem to support that – it seems to indicate that you should go for it unless it’s clearly a bad risk, like 4th and ten.
Yeah, your level of trust in your offense matters – Tom Brady is going to convert that 4th down more often than Mark Sanchez – but still, the math indicates you’re better off playing an aggressive style. Might cost you a game here, but you’ll win more later there.
I remember Mike Ditka saying if his team couldn’t move the ball one yard they had no business in the game. He always went for it. It didn’t help his team or him when his team proved time after time “they had no business in the game”.
My guess would be that even though a HC accepts the mathematical odds, the one time that decision costs his team a game would likely be the last time “the odds” figure into his decision.
I wonder how long a stretch a team would go before the math works out. Maybe longer than the team has the same coach/system/players.
Are things like field position, score, time in half/game, and such considered in the math? Some of these things make it an easy decision to go for it, supported by the math or not.
Yeah, what you say is true – we’re talking about a difference of maybe one game a year, on average. And no guarantees about the distribution of that.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeus_%28football_computer_program%29
It’s certainly easier to make the ‘usual choice’ than to make the ‘better choice’, if you are unlucky and have an owner who does not want to hear your explanation.
We don’t have access to the actual software, so individual game scenarios become difficult to evaluate. Still, the program seems to indicate that *some* additional aggressiveness in play calling in these situations is a good thing.
More about the software and it’s details:
http://www.pigskinrevolution.com/aboutus.html
Thanks for the links, Grumpy. Interesting application, with some inherent disadvantages I think. I bet Snyder is checking Shanny’s calls with it, building a case.
Scoring Challenged? Hard to score when ya never play a game. Ok blew the Romney call but lets try Niners vs Rams:
Phil: 27-7 Niners. Careful I might make a call like 27-7 Niners vs the Rams. Yeah the focus on Alex I don’t go there…
Grumpy Guy: 31-3 Niners. Yeah, we should beat the Lambs pretty comfortably. Their defense is not *that bad* statistically – but this is a case where i think stats are biased. How many yards and points does it take to beat a team with a lousy offense? Enough to get a comfortable lead, and then you run out the clock. I think we get 240 yards passing, 210 rushing, and win 31-3.
A coach who would gamble was Vince Lombard with Green Bayi. On fourth and one he would have Starr run the play action dive into the line with Jim Taylor and throw downfield to Dowler or Dale who were always open.
In the Nolan situation it was my opinion the worst thing he did was call a time out. When I say coaches are unprepared for this situation it is the time out that allows defenses time to rest and regroup. Typically, my feeling is if you need to call a time out it is probably best to kick. Chip Kelly seems to fully understand this concept. If you have a defense tired and on their heels do not back off. Giving them a rest with a time out allows them to re-strategize and even make personnel changes. If coaches were better prepared for this situation the time out would not need to be called in the first place.
The risk/reward factor in that Ram game clearly favored going for it on 4th and 6 inches. It’s not that hard to figger out if one takes into account the odds of scoring on 4th and 6 inches, and then how far the Rams would likely have to go to score the TD after the kick vs. how far they’d have to drive from the 6 inch line to attempt a FG.
I did the math for NoFear and the other Nolan apologists at the time, but taking all of the factors into account, going for the TD was the only reasonable option.
That Nolan was the HC destroys the theory that he was the best person to make the decision.
Okay, I need everyone to read this article!! I agree whole heartlely with what this coach does!! go with the math!! Head Coach in the NFL are way to conservative!! Harbaugh is a prime example. He passed and ran the ball against Buffallo, 300 rushing, 300 passing yards. then The NY Giants come in a handle Harbaugs offense. So what does Harbaugh do the next game…goes back to the run 75-80% of the offense. anyway here is a link to the article. The Niners have the defense to do what this coach does.
http://tinyurl.com/abrau2j
Yeah, Bergs, I forgot about the time out. It was a pisser to me because the Niners ran the ball all the way down the field on that drive with ease. Then they let the Rams off the hook and kicked the FG.
After the game, to a man, the Ram players said it was a huge boost that the Niners didn’t go for the TD. Say what you will about a given defense, but back then especially, the Niners were of the bend-and-wilt style otf defense.
Kevin, that’s the same link that Grump posted earlier. But yeah, it’s certainly food for thought. The maddning thing about it is when you keep a lesser team in the game by not trying to demoralize them completely, you leave the door open for a comeback. FGs are OK, but if you are inside the 20, I’d go for it certainly more than the average NFL coach does. Maybe not as much as Chip does, but certainly 4th and 1 from the 8, I’d go every time.
The one time I wouldn’t go for it is if it is the first score. Getting any points on the board is too much of a psyclogical boost to pass on. I did not make this up, I read it from Bill Walsh and just happen to agree with oit 100%.
This is good. There really are other things to bitch about. Nolan is a bit dated now, but it’s a start.
I think I just read that Gore is 2 for 6 on 3rd and 2 or less. That seems right as he’s gained 9 yards in 7 attempts on 3rd and 1 or 2. He has one gain of 7 yards so on the other 6 he’s gained a total of 2 yards. So why do they continue to flog that dead horse? Frank has always sucked in short yardage situations- especially third down…
But, even worse, they’d used Dixon just 3 times all year on third and short and then used him in the biggest third down of the title game against NY. The guy should be the short yardage runner ALL the time. He was stopped on 3rd and one from the NY 46, we punted and after a 3 and out by NY, Williams muffed the punt and NY went on to score. That 3rd down decision was as big as the muffed punt catch and is rarely mentioned.
Not sure whether it’s Gore, the Sardine Can offense, coaching, or our offensive linemen. For years now we have failed a lot on 4th down runs. It’s often looked to me that the defenders get under our linemen’s pad level too easily.
For several years the tendency was to run off a Iupati block so the defense loaded up to that area. Forty Niners might have caught on to that finally.
Twin, that’s what I was thinking they’d use Jacobs for, but I haven’t seen hide nor hair of Brandon.
It is a pisser to me that they have him but won;t use him in short yardage situations.
New thread is up by the way.
Thnks to you all for staying on point. It is much appreciated.
In case you missed it, new thread is up.