Forty Niners Forever

Christ, this feels like March. The Niners haven’t played a game in seemingly 2 months, and and were apparently off for a month before that lone Arizona game. But, after long last and much anxiety, we are back to playing football. The St. Louis Rams come to town, not to conquer, but to crumble. After a promising 3-2 start, including division wins ver Sea and AZ, the Rams have lost 3 in a row. Sure, GB and NE were likely pegged as losses, but Miami? Ouch. That one had to sting.

Sure, it’s early in the tenure of Jeff Fisher, but the Rams don’t seem to be doing anything particularly well. 28th in points scored and 20th in points allowed. Sam Bradford has been derailed on his way to elite status among the crop of young QBs in the league.  He has been grinding through the Alex Smith school of new coaching staffs and offenses and players on a yearly basis kind of thing. After his rookie year of doing well (3500 yards, 18 TDs, 15 picks, and a near-miss at the playoffs at 7-9), he struggled through an injury-plagued season last year (1700 yards, 6 TDs, 6 picks). This year? Well, pretty much the same numbers he put up last year in 10 games. 1800 yards, 8 TDs, 7 picks. Erstwhile workhorse RB Steven Jackson has finally had it with the organization, and is on his way out after carrying the team for years and being the only bright spot for 6 seasons.  WR Danny Amendola is probable for the game, so they may get one of their weapons back, but Bradford has been sacked 23 times in 8 games, so his protection isn’t all that.

The Niners? Well, we saw how they did after their mini-break. They dismantled AZ pretty easily. I foresee much the same this weekend. Gone were the drive-killing Cappy Capperson plays. The Niners ran at will, and thus were able to throw all night off play-action, and chew up big chunks of yards. AZ has a terrible line, and Red Skelton was pressured all night. Again, I see the same thing happening this weekend.

31-10, Niners.

Well, here we go. A fresh start. Y’all may have noticed some missing shit. Rather than even bother trying to wade through the bullshit, I tossed the last 2 threads. Let’s not go there again, k?

Come on, people. I’m all for lively discussions, but let’s get real here. If you served, thanks for your service. If you are going through hard times, sorry to hear that. But we’re here to nominally talk about the Niners, and football in general. This down time for the last 3 weeks really sucks, and apprently the boredom creeps in, but really.

I guess I have to patrol this place a lot harder. Or just give up the ghost. I didn’t think I’d have to be a babysitter.

The came, they saw, they conquered. In a game that was supposed to be a hard-fought defensive struggle instead turned into a cakewalk for the offense and a pretty strong beat-down by the 49ers resurgent defense. Alex Smith picked apart a supposedly stout AZ pass defense to the tune of 18-19 passing, 232 yards, and 3 TDs and a near-perfect QBR of 157.1. Gone were the hesitant throws and floating ducks. In their place were accurate pinpoint passes, and a lot of yards after the catch. Defensively, the 49ers pitched a TD shutout for the 4th time in 8 games. Larry Fitzgerald (5-52) was kept in check, and AZ’s anemic run game was held to 7 yards. A woeful 32 inches per carry.

Smith spread the ball around to 9 different recievers. The most effective being Michael Crabtree. His numbers weren’t huge (5-72, 2 TDs), but the throw to the end zone on 3rd and 6 was one that looked like an actual play where they trusted each other to do what was designed. On the play, Patrick Peterson’s back was to Crabs, so Smith threw the pass up high where Crabs could go after it, but also be above Peterson. Crabs grabbed it and fought to keep is as Peterson tried to wrestle is from his grasp. Crabs won out. Touchdown. it’s the kind of play that a good WR makes, and a good QB throws. By the time Crabs scored his 2nd TD to close out the 1st half, Peterson was baffled as to how he should cover Crabs. The TD to Moss was even better. Midway through the 3rd quarter, Smith dropped back to pass. His 1st and 2nd reads were left and middle. He came back to Moss as the 3rd read on the left side for a 10 yard out that Moss dodged and dashed his way to a 47 yard TD. 24-0, and for all intents and purposes the game was over.

Defensively, the Niners stuffed the run and dared AZ to pass, and they were shut down at every turn. Skelton threw for 290 yards, but this was on 52 attempts for an anemic 5.6 yards per attempt. Smith on the other hand was a stellar 12.2 YPA. Culliver got a gift pick on the hail Mary to close the 1st half, and Early Doucett got an early nap when Goldson laid the heavy wood on his protagonist from last year, and knocked him to the sidelines. Skelton was pressured and knocked down all game, and the D line came up with 4 sacks: 2 by Aldon Smith, and one each by Brooks and Bowman.

All in all, a return to form. At least NFC West style. The drag is we have another 2 week break as we hit the bye next weekend. All in all, though, the Niners did what they needed to in this first half of the season. They won all their division games, beat a quality team on the road in Green Bay, and are up 2 games in their division. Ho hum.

Seems like we’ve waded through another preseason. It has been 11 days since the Niners beat Seattle. And the NFL world has gotten more in focus. The Rams and Seattle both lost yesterday, and a win today would put the Niners in the drivers seat, 2 games up on both the AZ and Seattle, for the NFC West as we hit the bye. The blogosphere has been replete with grumblings from the national guys regarding Alex Smith and his status as a starting QB for the 49ers. Those of us not buying the bullshit know it’ll take some major suckitude to force Harbaugh into a decision to put Cappy  in as the starter. This is Alex’s season, live or die.

That being said, there are two guys who ARE on the short list for being replaced as QBs. Mike (I heart dogs) Vick, and Mark (I heart NY) Sanchez. Both suffered terrible losses. the Jets lost to the fairly hapless Dolphins, while the Iggles lost to the undefeated Falcons. Philly, and their new defense promptly gave up points on Atl’s first 6 possessions, and the Iggles could never mount any kind of comeback. The good news for Vick was he weathered a game with no fumbles and no picks. Progress, I suppose, but the Iggles are 3-4, and 2.5 games out of 1st. Their playoff hopes are very dim. Their prospects after Vick however are rookie Nick Foles, and Trent (remember me?) Edwards. So, they don’t look to bench Vick. What could happen is HC Andy Reid getting his walking papers. All their aquisitions in recent memory have only served to jack up unrealistic expectations as the defense flails, and the points allowed pile up. Their line is battered, yet they want to throw more and more. Reid isn’t really protecting Vick by not trying to run more, but the defense threw that out the window yesterday by letting Atl score at will. No matter what these guys do, they are destined for failure, and what likely happens is these guys play out the string, and they make wholesale changes after this season mercifully concludes for them.

The J-E-T-S on the other hand have Jesus in their back pocket. Mark Sanchez had a  terrible game yesterday as he hovered around his uasual sub-.500 completion rate, missed a ton of open guys, fumbled away on a sack,  as he and the Jets yapped their way into another embarrassing loss. This time to the not-so-lowly Miami Dolphins. The curious thing to all this is the undercurrent of Timmy Tebow. Their heir apparent is also the up back on punts. Ooops. he allowed a blocked punt yeterday, and they also suffered a blocked FG to boot. So, you have to wonder, as the Jets are 3-4, but only 2 back in the suddenly weak looking AFC East, whether they take a look at Tebow as their QB going forward. I’d be for this one, only because Sanchez looked flat awful yesterday, and he hasn’t done much of anything to help his offense. The team is in disarray, and Rex Ryan appears only to want to make his team quote-worthy, or in the news for any reason other than playing good football. Might as well go full-circus mode. Tebow obviously isn’t much as a special teamer, and his running plays aren’t fooling anyone.  If they DON’T start him, then why did they get him in the first place?

Give Sanchez one more start. Unfortunately, that start will be in Seattle. Not a place to revive one’s QB numbers. Actually, they should just throw Tebow into the mix. The Jets aren’t going to win that one anyway, so see if the trial by fire can somehow work out for the Jets.

Criminy, no football around these parts for ages it seems. The one game coming up is Monday night, so it won’t even be here this weekend.  Thank God the Giants are giving me something to watch. The Niners could learn a lot from the Giants as they coalesced late in the year to become a team in the true sense of the word. Subsuming personal greatness for the common good. Something the Niners already do pretty well, but the Niners have looked a bit less than the dominating team that started the season by whipping on GB (a contender) and Deetroit (apparently back to being pretenders).

The NY Giants game was a debacle in EVERY phase of the game, and the Seattle game was an offensive struggle. The run game was there for the most part as they gained 170 yard on the ground. Something Seattle isn’t used to giving up. Defensively they played well enough, and were assisted by five dropped passes by the Hawks. Special teams looked more like their special selves than in recent memory.

Which brings us to Alex Smith. Like the Minnesota and Giants games, the WRs in the Seattle game couldn’t seem to shake free of the coverage. Manningham was hurt in the Giants game, and missed the Seahawk game, so you have to hope Manningham would have done a little better than Crabtree did in getting open. Smith just seemed fairly tentative out there. The best game of his life (Buffalo) was followed by his worst (NYG), and the Seattle game featured a potentially devastating pick in the end zone by Seattle. Plus there were a few too many plays left on the field that Smith missed. VD was neutralized in these games. And this is something the additional WRs were supposed to address. Mainly Moss. When Moss comes in, he usually gets a CB and a safety over the top, so his presence should open someone else up. However, Smith struggled finding guys open. Like Moss in the back of the end zone on the INT. There were other plays were it seemed Smith wouldn’t pull the trigger even though someone was open. On the rollouts, he gives up half the field. and the defense simply flows to the guys on the righ half of the field. This was evident in the Giants game, when Smith was often throwing into traffic.

Granted, Seattle has very physical corners, and no one seems to pass very well against them, but as this team works its way to the playoffs, they are going to face strong defenses like Seattle and the Giants, and especially Minnesota, a likely firswt round playoff foe. And I also know that this passing offense is still a work in progress. The Buff and Jet games were tests to see how the deep passing game would work. Well, it worked great against a couple of lesser defenses. Good ones? Not so much. They still have work to do, and Smith has to work on getting the ball out quicker. He’s take some unwarranted sacks, but the flipside being better a sack than a pick. The problem there is Smith has already equalled his pick total from last year as he’s being asked to be more aggressive. Still and all, the game-awareness is lacking at times. He’s taking sacks when he should simply throw the ball away, and he’s missing open guys at times. Nitpicking a 5-2 team? Sure. Maybe. But I AM concerned about how well this team can do in the playoffs if they can’t get VD out from double coverage, and can’t get the ball to anyone else. The run game is a plus, but if the Niners can’t cionsistenl;y hit pass plays, the 8-in-the-box scenario we grew to hate in the Singletary days will come back as a defense we regularly face.

So, as long as the Niners can get through AZ on their way to the halfway mark, and the bye, they will be in excellent shape to lock up the NFC West. a 2-0 record in the division and a 2 game lead over AZ, and possibly Seattle as they have a tough game on the road vs Deetroit. If Seattle has shown anything, it’s that they are much better at home, going 3-0 at home, and 1-3 on the road. A loss by Sea would give the Niners the tiebreaker plus a 2 game lead over both.

The Niners go from 2 games in 5 days to one game in 24 days. Due to the vagaries of the NFL schedulers, the Niners have an 11 game break between the Seattle and AZ games, and a 13 day break before the Rams come to visit on 11/11/12. As of now, the Niners have a one game lead over AZ and Sea, and 2 games over StL. A win over AZ on Monday night would set this team up for an easier way to the division title, put some distance between us and AZ, and give the Niners a 2-0 division record as they reach the halfway point and their bye week.

So, what do the Niners need to work on during this down time? The Niners worked on their deep passing game, and it was very effective vs Buffalo, somewhat effective vs the Jets, and non-existent vs the Giants and Seattle. They looked great vs Green Bay and Deetroit, and flat and lost vs the Vikes and Giants. The run game is tops in the NFL at a 175 yard clip.Gore is still busting tackles and getting through the holes to the 2nd level effectively. The passing game has been a bit hit-or-miss. After the first 5 weeks, Smith had 8 TDs and 1 pick. Since then, however, Smith has 1 TD and 4 picks. Mainly from the Giants game and the 3 ints in that one. The defense has been all over the place as well. They couldn’t stop the underneath passing game of the Giants and Minn. Statistically they haven’t given up as many big plays as last year, but sacks and turnovers are down.  The run D isn’t as stout as usual either.

This is as good a time for a break as any. Gore needs some rest for his sore ribs, and providing he plays and survives the AZ game, will get more rest. Manningham as well with his sore shoulder. Brandon Jacobs, after skwalking to the media about being healthy and not playing, will maybe actually get on the field and play some. His tenure so far resembles Brian Westbrook and his minuscule paying time here.

The coaching staff needs to do a couple things. Offensively, they need to shitcan the Cappy plays. They’ve done nothing but stall drives after being effective the first couple weeks. Keep the focus on the run, but keep the routes deeper to keep the checkdowns clear for decent yards. Smith needs to trust his instincts. He looked very tentative yet again vs the Giants and the Hawks. he seems to never trust his WRs to get open on  passes that are fairly well defended. I’m not advocating throwing onto double coverage, but he rarely pulls the trigger and lets his WRs make plays.  As long as teams don;t put 8 in the box, the run game should remain solid. Defensively the Niners need to get more pressure. Aldon Smith isn’t getting through as clean as he was last year. Soap appears dinged up, and needs a break. J Smith is still playing well, but the LBs aren’t getting to the QB as much, and the run D isn’t doing the job. Dial up some better-disguised blitzes, and get the D linemen healthy for the 2nd half push.

In a game more resembling a heavyweight title fight, the 49ers slugged and slogged their way to a hard-fought victory over the up and coming Seattle Seahawks. Neither team was very effective through the air, and both teams pounded the ground with good chunks of yards. Frank Gore in particular  had some big runs up the gut as the Niner O line opened hole after hole in Seattle’s d line. Gore often got to the second level for big gains. Marshawn Lynch also had a huge game, often running through 2 or 3 Niners to gain tough yards.  The passing game on either side was a mixed bag of goodies. Wilson was hurried and rushed a lot more than Eli Manning ever was, and the pass rush forced a pick early in the 3rd quarter. Seattle was seriously hurt by 3 drops by their receivers. One, to Turbin down the sideline, could have been a touchdown, or at least 1st and goal. As it was, Seattle settled for a FG.

Alex Smith on the other hand looked fairly inept most of the night. Granted, his newest favorite target, Mario Manningham was out with a shoulder injury, but Crabs, in a bit of a return to form, was easily controlled by Seattle’s big physical corners. Crabs did little to shake coverage, and didn’t get open very much. And neither did VD, who was held without a catch. Randy Moss on the other hand seemed to get open more, but was missed on the pick in the end zone, and only caught one pass.  The most effective plays for Smith were the checkdowns to Gore in the 3rd quarter on their lone TD drive. The good part was the fact that the WRs and TEs were clearing out space underneath to open that stuff up. I still like that strategy, because it IS safe, and it doesn’t preclude going downfield. When everyone is on a short route, the middle of the field gets clogged up and the checkdowns don’t work. With Gore pounding the rock, play-action works well to hold the LBs, and Gore can get loose in the short middle if the WRs are going deeper.

Anyhow, good, bad, or indifferent, a win is a win, especially on a short week and in the division. I’m sure the blogs are already on fire regarding Alex Smith’s play, but Seattle is very good at defending the pass. Their corners Sherman and Browner are big and very physical, and they have a pretty good pass rush. No one (not named Tom Brady) is lighting these guys up. Shit, no one’s talking about NE benching Tom Brady, since he lost to Seattle. His rating was a whopping 79.5. Smith’s was 74.5.

Encouraging to me was the fact that the Niners made some halftime adjustments to take control of the game. They cleared out the underneath to allow Gore to run free, and to also gain nice chunks of yards on checkdowns. The play to Walker for the TD was a great example of that. And, finally, let’s shelf the Cappy show for the time being. His one contribution resulted in his head nearly getting removed from his body. What’s galling is a major helmet-to-helmet hit isn’t called a penalty, but Goldson gets one for untangling himself from a tackle behind the line on Marshawn Lynch. Ludicrous.

<b>UPDATE:  Brandon Jacobs and Joe Staley are active, Marion Manningham is out with a shoulder injury.</b>

Well, it is officially crunch time in Ninerland. We are at a crossroads of sorts as the team tries to regain the form that led to such an impressive start. The Niers were clicking along, with one minor blip, when they ran into the New York Giants. They were buzzsawed into oblivion and were bad in every phase of the game. Problem is, as this is a ‘what have you done lately’ kind of deal, the Niners are on shakey ground. Gone is the euphoria of beating Green Bay and Deetroit.  Here now is the unshakeable feeling that Alex Smith may be reverting to old bad habits. the defense was pourous in these 2 losses, and the pass rush, which was so good last year, has mysteriously vanished like so many 3rd down stops.

Enter the Seahawks. A mystery unto themselves. They’ve beaten good teams and lost to iffy ones. However, they come to town to renew rivalry between head coaches Jim Harbaugh and Pete Carroll, and between Seattle GM Scotty (Happy Hour) McLoughan and his former team. These games always make for interesting fodder as Scotty has been picking up our scraps ever since he got there. Michael Robinson is still on the ‘Hawks, while erstwhile jersey-winner-for-me Kentwan Balmer has moved on to other endeavors (would you like to super size that?).

I have no idea how this plays out. But I do know that this is a game the 49er should win. If they lose, the entire program will fall under the kind of scrutiny that drove the 2 previous coaches mad. Losing at home to the Hawks would be, while not a fatal blow, it will definitely put a crimp in the search for back-to-back division titles. If Alex Smith falters in a big, or even not-so-big, way, the murmurs will start getting louder for Cappy to get more reps. I think they tone down the Cappy switch-outs, but I do hope they still use him down by the goal line.

Plus, we have the SF Giants quest to tie up the NLCS at 2 or run the risk of being shut down in 5 games. All they need is one win to take the series back to the Bay. GO GIANTS ! ! ! ! Depending on the outcome of these 2 games, I may not survive the night. Be still my heart.

So, here we are at the stupid-ass Thursday night game part of the schedule. Goodell, in his search for more green, sanctioned a Thursday night game every week this season, to the detriment of the players, the coaches, and the overall wellness of the game, to squeeze out more TV and ad money. What used to be only 2 games on Thanksgiving weekend with Deetroit and Dallas hosting games has now become a logistical nightmare of ‘let’s cram 2 games into 5 days’ scenario. Players don’t get enough time off, coaches have a rough time installing a cogent game plan, and whatever team happens to be travelling has even less time to prepare for a game. Much like last year when the 49ers had to travel 3 time zones to play their Thursday night game in Baltimore, the 49ers had basicvally 2.5 days to prepare for that game. Back before last season started, the Niners were still the whipping boys of the league and were thus shit on with that scheduling. This year? The Niners get a home and home situation. Seattle is only flying down the coast, but even that time lost is precious.

Also, when Goodie Goodell talks about player safety being paramount, this completely flies in the face of that. As a football fan, hey it’s awesome. Extra games are always cool. But to chalk this up to nothing more than greed on the owners part is naive at best.

Anyhow, Seattle comes to town as one of the hardest teams to figure out in the league. They have lost to AZ and StL, and squeaked by Carol on the road, but have beaten Green Bay (huge assist to the non-scab refs), Dallas, and NE at home. Russell Wilson, erstwhile Matt Flynn killer, has put up some decent enough numbers for a rookie, but has led some impressive comebacks. Notably last week over New England.  They run well enough, but could only muster 85 yards vs NE and 98 vs Carolina. Seattle’s team strength revolves around their defense. DE Chris Clemons has 5.5 sacks, and LB Bruce Irvin has 4.5 sacks to lead a Seattle team ranked 7th in the NFL in sacks with 17. Seattle is also 2nd in rushing yards allowed, and 4th in passing yards. The Niners numbers are confusing. They lead the league in least amount of yard given up through the air, and are solid against the run, but their losses were stories of little pressure, and a lot of underneath passing yards.

When it comes to the coaches (what’s your deal?), well, Harbaugh had held the advantage over Pete Carroll since their college days. One hopes that this trend continues. A Niner loss at home Thursday night wouldn’t be a fatal blow, but it would seriously hurt their chances to win the division outright. AZ, SF, and Sea are all at 4-2, and StL is 3-3. Sea already has 2 division losses, St L has 2 division wins. This will be the first division game for the Niners. We were all giving the Niners something like 4-2 at worst in these division games. But the time is now for this team to prove what it is made of. Losing at home to the Hawks would be a serious blow to the effort of this team this year, and would serve to put into question the direction of the team. The QB carousel last week should be put to rest. Cappy is obviously the future, but he is better served as strictly a read option guy down on the goal line. Anything more, as we saw, is only courting disaster.

For all the good feelings these first 2 weeks in beating the Packers and Lions, the 49ers, to all appearances, seem to be lost in a fog of their own making. The first 2 games, the Niners dominated with a strong run game and a solid passing game. When they travelled to Minnesota, they mysteriously abandoned the run, and sufferend dire consequences as their defense gave up long drive after long drive. The pass rush was nonexistant, and turnovers/pick 6es were dropped and botched.

Queue up the Jet and Bills, and the Niners unveiled their deep passing game to great effect. 1,000 yards in 2 games, with a little Cappy thrown in to boot. The defense creates turnovers with a decebnt pass rush and stout run defense. All is happy in Ninerland.

Then it happened. The New York football Giants came to town and dismantled the Niners from top to bottom, front to back, and every which way but loose. Say what you will about the game, but this was a coaching disaster. Cappy was used at the completely wrong times. The Niners gave up on the run. This kicking game was awful (despite the block). Special teams coverage (31st in the league) was abysmal. And the defense. The defense let the Gaints throw downfield with impunity and score. No pressure on Eli. Rogers and Culliver were toasted with regularity.  Funny thing is, for all the shitty field position the offense GAVE the Giants, the Niners kept them out of the end zone in the 2nd half.

So, what are the 49ers? Are we a smashmouth running team like the first couple games? Are we a passing team like the Jets/Bills game showed? Are we moving to Cappy? Are we going to be a gadget team?  I seriously don’t get what the strategy was this last game. I also don’t understand what the strategy was for the Minn game. I understood the Jets game and the attempt to go downfield more, and the Bills game to exploit that. But in Minn, we didn’t run at all. The Giants game, after those first 2 possessins, the Niners went away from the run when the game was still only 17-3. And they repeatedly threw Cappy in at various random times.

Harbaugh sometimes seems to think all he does is golden, and no one can figure out his master plan. The problem is, other teams are catching on. The jumbo packages don’t seem to be working any more. The Cappy bootleg was left unblocked because JPP didn’t bite on the fake, and it resulted in an 11 yard loss, and a good drive was killed. There were countless other decisions that were baffling. The complete lack of pressure is a big red flag. Sopoaga might be hurting, and RJF isn’t really holding his own at this point. Justin Smith isn’t dominating like usual, and the pass rush, Aldon Smith especially, was rendered moot. I guess losing Haralson is a bigger deal than I thought.

I had the idea at the beginning of the year that the Niners would move along to being a little bit more vertical in their offense, and remain stout on defense, but still be a running team. All this Cappy shit, and the ease at which NY threw on us has me questioning things. Is Harbaugh pulling a rope-a-dope? Saving the best for the playoffs? Saving the best for Seattle Thursday night, even? I said before the game that it meant a lot more to the Giants than it did to us, so I really don;t know what the hell was going through Harbaugh’s mind on this.

In the end, this could merely be a blip on the radar that is the 2012 season. Or could it be a harbinger of things to come? I’m real curious to see what happens Thursday night. I certainly ain’t as confident as I was before the Giants game.