Forty Niners Forever

Ahhh, the heady days of the bye week. Manningham was coming back, the defense was shoring up with needed D line help from the rookies, and Eric Wright was on his way. Well, a funny thing happened on the way to the playoffs. Not to rehash the obvious, but the offense went into hibernation, and the blogwaves erupted with the millions of problems plauging the Niners, and thousands of solutions to fix those problems. Far be it (Roman) from me to (Roman) point fingers at the (Roman) sudden ineptitide of an offense that (Roman) never recovers from 2nd half(Roman) adjustments by our opponents, but the play calling appears to be the leading indicator. Wichi is under the purview of Greg Roman.

I don’t have the stats handy, but most every game, the offense completely fall apart by the 4th quarter, and cannot get a 1st down to save their lives. I know that in all the losses, the defense was forced to stay on the field at somewhere like a 2:1 ratio, as the offense goes 3 and out 2 or 3 or 4 consecutive times. I know in the Indy and Seattle games, while the score was still close, Roman gave up on the run at the cost of re-establishing control of the line. He’d pass too much. SInce the blocking is shakey, and the WRs invisible, this often didn’t work. This leads to the whole mentality of every player overthinking their role and trying to do too much. As in Kassim Osgood tackling a fair catching punt returner, or LMJ returning a KO 8 yards deep in the end zone, only to get tackled on the 9 yard line. The college football mentality. Throw in a borderline hit on Drew Brees, and there you have our second 2-game losing streak.

Beyond that clusterf**k, we have an extra day .5 to talk, bloggolisciously of course. At this point of the season we are pretty much at DEFCON 5. Lose on Monday Night, and we coould be passed by the Cards and the Bears and tied with the Iggles. In the grand scheme of things, it’s good to be fighting for a playoff spot, as opposed to playing out the string like preseason hopefulls like Atlanta Washington. The reality though, is that the Niners were poised to make a strong push to the #1 seed but fell flat on their faces.

Speaking of face-plants, our next opponents, the Washington Redskins are performing their own death-spiral. I thought Shanny rushed his star QB back into games way too fast, and RG III-VII started out pretty slugglishly by losing his first 3 games. It hasn’t gotten much better for them. RG III has recently come to taking potshots at his defense, various players, and his head coach and OC.

In reality, though, the Skins are the 6th best offense in the league, and cannot be taken lightly, even with the infighting. They have the 11th best passing attack and the best run game. For all their losses, RG III is in the top ten QBs, Alfred Morris is 3rd in the league with 918 yards rushing, and Pierre Garcon is 3rd in the league with 67 catches. Take these guys lightly, and they can light up the scoreboard in a hurry.

Defense is a different story. Washington is 30th in points allowed, and 28th in total defense. They are in the minus in turnovers (-2), and in the bottom third in sacks with 25. If the Niners can get on top of these guys early, it should be smooth sailing. Keep this one close, as we’ve done in all our losses, and we just may play ourselves right out of the playoff hunt. This losing streak has shown a glaring problem in that these guys can’t close out a game very well. Regardless the hit last week, we are not pressuring the QB near enough. 21 sacks isn’t getting it done.

Has Aldon Smith lost his fire? Is he merely getting back into game shape? I don’t know, but Brees, and Cam before him faced little sustained pressure. A sure-fire way to lose in the NFL.

Drew Brees after the hit:

In the woulda, coulda, shoulda game, the Niners barely pulled this one out over the mighty Saints in N’Awlins. If Frank Gore woulda caught the swing pass with 40 yards of shiny plastic turf in front of him, the Niners woulda scored and salted the game away. If the Niners coulda managed the clock and the red flag situation a tad better they coulda scored going into halftime. And, finally, the ref shoulda eaten his flag on the Ahmad Brooks sack of Drew Brees and subsequent fumble recovery by Patrick Willis in the closing moments of the 4th quarter.

As it was, Gore dropped the pass, Mangina, Kappy, Harbaugh and co. wasted all their TOs in the 1st half on a) the 1st series, and b-c) two challenges that were patently obvious to be nowhere near being overturned, and the ref threw the flag on the sack/fumble.

(Insert rant here: At what point do we just declare all sacks penalties? Or make it 2 hand touch on the QB? Brooks did not go for Brees’s’s’ head. He hit Brees across the chest and his arm slid up to Brees’ neck. Savage hit? Undoubtedly. Penalty-worthy? If so, then what do defensive players aim for? Below the waist is off-limits. The head is off limits. You can’t extend your arms to tackle the QB. If the upper chest is off limits, then you basically have an area of 12″ below the armpits and above the waist. You’re better off letting the QB run in circles, I suppose. These defenders have enough to worry about trying just to get to the QB. Now they have to stop and figure out the correct way to properly tackle the QB? Thanks for ruining the game Goodie Goodell. Goodell is all about safety, except where it comes in direct violation of slowing the money train. Can you say Thursday Night Football? Football in England for no particluar reason?)

Anyhow, this game will get dissected, like the last one, as to who f*cked up harder to lose the game. There were some positives around the loss. The play-calling was a little better. When the Niners put 4 WRs in a formation, 3 were actually WRs! An improvement (the downside was seeing Osgood on special teams make a special bus play to give the Saints 15 free yards on their final drive). The Niners took advantage of the NO mistakes. They scored a TD on the muffed punt, a TD on the Brooks pick, and got a FG on the forced fumble on the pick by Kappy. The situation they didn’t quite capitalize on was when NO went for it and failed on 4th and 4 on the SF 40, a play that would have been dissed heavily had NO lost, giving the Niners great field position. As it was they kicked a FG.

After that, it was 3 and out city. The offense did no favors to the defense by going 3 and out their last 2 drives to close out the game. Gore’s drop came after the Saints had closed the gap to 20-17, and he had a good 20-30 yards of clear sailing ahead of him. As I said. Woulda Coulda Shoulda. This is getting eerily rem,inidcent of the Nolan days where we played well eough to lose close games. This used to be a different story. Seattle, for all thier struggles in these recent games, figured out a way to win. Not to lose. Hence their 9-1 record.

My biggest peeve is not only do opposing DBs not honor our non-exisetent deep passing game, OUR OWN WRs don’t honor it at all as well. Jon Baldwin didn’t even bother looking for the deep ball thrown his way late in the game. He half-assed the route and was startled by the UFO that floated past his head.

The good news? Well, seeing as this is our 2nd 2-game losing streak, this team has the wherewithall to rip off 3 or 4 wins at the expense of some upcoming shitty teams. THese guys should be able to win 5 of the last 6 games. 11-5 should get them in.

These are the times that try men’s souls. Or some shit. The season comes down to these two upcoming road games. The Big Easy and the Big Sleazy. Come out of this with a split, and there’s a possibility that we are still hanging on to that 6th playoff spot. N’Alwins has never been an easy team to play with their firepower and all, and its even more daunting playing them in their dome. Offensively, they are pretty damn good. Their offense is scoring better than anyone not named Denver. Drew Brees is lighting things up per usual, but the new wrinkle is the running game behind 29 year old journeyman Pierre Thomas and young Mark Ingram. NO Dropped a 245 yard rushing performance on the Cowboys last week. They have weathered the Gregg Williams/Sean Payton deal and are now thriving under Rob Ryan’s newly installed 3-4 defense.

The Niners? Well, we’ve (and everyone under the sun) has dissected, detailed, and debated the current failings of this offense. No need to flog the equine any more than previously done.

This is a huge game for the morale of this team and this young QB. A win would right the ship and hopefully propel them into the playoffs as the WC team no one wants to play. Lose this game, and it may start a slide right out of the playoffs.

In a season that is suddenly getting a bit shakey, your San Francisco 49ers travel to the big easy for a fairly important game. The division is pretty much out of site as Seattle is coasting to the west title. So that leaves the wildcard. In a revolting occurrence, the Niners were just passed by the team they just lost to, the Panthers.

Seattle has the NFC West in the bag, and there are too many scenarios out there to keep the 49ers out or let them in, so the first order of business is to beat the high flying Saints. Unfortunately they are the number 3 offense, and the number 5 defense. The good news, I suppose, is that Nawlins has the third best pass defense, and we have major problems passing. They are 23rd against the run, which would play into our strength. It also plays into the one good way to beat the Saints, and that’s by controlling the ball and keeping Drew and Co off the field.

Is it possible? Sure. Probable? Well, I’m not buying it. This team struggles against good teams, and the Saits fit the bill. For a team that was supposedly getting healthy, they got beat up last weekend. Mike Iupati, VD, Eric Reid, Ray McDonald, and Garrett Celek all are questionable for the NO game. Celek normally wouldn’t be a concern, but when VD went down, we were down to VM as the only TE. This apparently played a part in the Niners not going for it on 4th and goal on the 1 in the 2nd quarter.

Can the Niners control the clock and win the game? Maybe, but I sure don’t like the odds if we get in a shoot out with these guys.

Wow. What a difference a day makes. The Niners, coming off a 5 game winning streak, a bye week, and some fresh players activated for the game were expected to make a statement against the upstart Carolina Panthers. Well the statement is wait til next year? A team that was fighting for the NFC West crown is now the 6th seed in the playoff hunt, having been passed by these very Panthers. They now face the Saints and the ‘Skins on the road, followed by the somewhat surprising Rams and (gulp) Seahawks. Based on how this team looks now, 2-2 would be possible. Is that enough to hold on to that 6 spot? Probably, but of the teams lurking behind them (GB, Chicago, AZ, and Philly at 5-5), AZ is the strongest. Philly and Foles are coming on.

Regardless of playoff scenarios, how do the coaches fix this passing ‘attack?’ I’ve heard until I’m blue in the face how bad these WRs are. I’m beginning to doubt this. Ginn looks like fucking Jerry Rice compared to anyone not named Anquan Boldin. The team was hurt when VD went down yesterday, but these is NO downfield game. These problems were the same problems that plagues the Nolan/Hostler Niners and the Singletary/Jimmy-Hat Niners. If the Niners can run, they can work in some passes. Stop the run, and the passing game sputters. Or they go away from the run, as in yesterday after the Hunter fumble. Carolina teed off and the Niners couldn’t pass protect to save their lives.

Do we slow down the relentless pressure by going to quick counts? No huddle? Slants? Nope. We are going to run our slow-developing 5-step drop pass plays that we always run. This team continually has to use every second of the play clock to get plays off. Which means the defenses can adjust to what formations the Niners show. We did do some shifting later in the game, but the Panthers looked like they knew what was coming about 80% of the time.

Frankly, I’m sick and tired of this offense. There’s no imagination. There’s no adjustments. It’s a lot like the Singletary mentality of ‘here’s what we do. Stop it.’ When opposing defenses stop the run, this team struggles. So what does this mean going forward? I really don’t know, but I do know that Greg Roman has to go. Jim Harbaugh needs to get someone with a much more progressive offense. If we’ve proven anything so far this year, it’s that this team can beat the fair to middling teams, but struggles mightily with good ones. Winning the N’awlins game, which, after looking at last night’s game, appears to be a daunting task, puts the Niners at 6-4 and in dire playoff straits should they lose. Washington Seattle would be a loss, and the others wins. So it looks to me as if the best case scenario is 11-5, and the 6th seed. 10-6 and they are likely out.

Sorry, Yoko.

Game #9 of the season is here, the bye week and break is over, and the team has re-tooled with the addition of Aldon Smith, Mario Manningham, Eric Wright, and Tank Carradine. Aldon Smith likely comes in as a situational pass rusher, so he’ll get some snaps on defense. 15-20 I’d think. Unless Carolina gets pass happy. The rest? Not sure. I’d like to think super Mario gets some serious playing time as the Niners are going to need to throw the ball to get the run game going. And they need more than VD and Boldin to get the passing game going. If the Niners can get the passing game going early, that should open up the run game.

Carolina for their part plays defense much like the Niners. They rely on their front seven to control the game. They don’t blitz very much, and they stop the run an good as anyone without having to stack the line. They maintain their gaps and fill the running lanes. Which is why I think the Niners need to pass early to open things up. Carolina often only rushes 4 and covers with 7 so it is imperative that the Niners get people open. Miller has been serving well as a check down safety valve type guy recently, and we have Manningham back. Carol hasn’t faced a mobile QB like Kappy, and Carol’s star LB Luke Keuchly has been burned a couple times on seam routes, so the chances should be there.

I don’t think this one will be easy, but we are coming off our break, and they are traveling across the country. Niners win going away.

Criminy, things are starting to get very interesting in the NFL. Seattle, the early shoe-in for the NFC crown is staggering around like a punch-drunk sailor on shore leave. They have squeaked through most of their games this year amid injuries and some impressive comebacks, but how do you fall behind by 17 to the Buccos? Teams on the rise are the Niners and the surprisingly resurgent Carolina Panthers. The Niners didn’t even play last week, but their stock rose considerably due to the fact that Aldon Smith, Mario Manningham, Tank Carradine, and Eric Wright are back with the team and ready to play. And the fact they are still riding a 5 game winning streak. The niners didn’t really do bad without Aldon Smith, but the pass rush definitely suffered. Aldon missed the last 5 games yet remains the leading sacker on the team with 4.5. The hope is he picks up right where he left off. Tank Carradine, the studly injured defensive lineman who has been dying to get in to a game, and Quinton Dial, another defensive lineman who was drafted injured, has recently returned. So, a defense that has been stifling these past 5 weeks, giving up roughly 12 points a game, should now be deeper and healthier.

In that vein, Mario Manningham returns from last year’s knee injury. More promising news is that Michael Crabtree has just returned to practice, and he looks to be back on the field in 3 weeks. So, the offense which has recently thrived under Frank Gore and his fountain of youth 2013 season, has more weapons at their disposal. All this is well and good for the surprising 32nd (yes, last) passing team in the league. To offset that of course, is the fact that the Niners are the #1 rushing offense. Which works out (surprise) to 16th in the league for offense. They are 5th in scoring however. This directly relates to their 16 turnovers caused. The takeaway from this is that in theory the Niners are on the rise.

That being said, the Niners are facing another team on a roll of it’s own. Carolina is on a 4 game win streak of their own, and they are similar to the Niners in that they have a tough defense that doesn’t give up points, and holds on to the ball with a solid running game. They both have young strong QBs who can get large chunks of yards with their legs, and Cam Newton is having a great season so far after a disappointing season last year.

All in all, both teams are playing well and looking to keep their streaks going. The good news fro SF is they are coming off their bye week, and are healthier and stronger than when they last played in London while Carolina is travelling across the country. I think the Niners take this one in a fairly close affair that the Niners win going away. Let’s say 31-21.

In what looks to be a crazy ride to the playoffs, the scenario as we stand right now appears to be that whoever doesn’t win the NFC West is going to have a better record than any of the other division winners. The Niners, currently the 5th seed, and Seattle the 1 seed create a scenario where the 2nd best team in the league is the 5th seed and therefore must play an extra playoff game, as they’d be the top wildcard. Fair or not, that is the system as it stands. It may not come to pass, but it’s something to think about as the NFL debates changing the playoff structure (2 more WC teams) yet again.

Beyond the top 5 teams (Sea, NO, GB, (urk) Dal, and WC #1 SF), there is a mad scramble for the last playoff spot. Carolina has pushed their way into that spot with a 4 game winning streak. There are 6 teams with a fair to poor shot at getting that last spot. Their viability as a real contender comes into sharp focus with their trip across the country to the slimy confines of Candlestick Park next weekend. They also have NE, NO, and the surprising Jets. If they make the playoffs, they’d have earned it.

Detroit (5-3)
Chicago (4-3)
Arizona (4-4)
Philly (4-5)
Washington (3-5)
St. Louis (3-6)

Carol owns the tiebreaker with Deetroit with their win over them, but other scenarios will work themselves out as the season goes on. Detroit looks good what with their overpowering defense, and Matt Stafford playing strong. They have a huge division game with Chicago next weekend. Chicago may be hurting without Jay Cutler, but Matt Forte scored an ungodly 6 TDs yesterday but still lost to the ‘Skins. And they still have 2 games with GB, DAL, and Balt on their schedule. AZ? They are Jeckyll and Hyde-ing their way through the season. They’ve beaten Detroit, but no one else of note. They still have 3 division games, and look to fade. Philly? Another team wallowing in mediocrity. Although Nick Foles looks to have the starting QB job as of now after he dismantled the Raiders yesterday. He needs to come on strong to overcome GB, Detroit, Chicago and Dallas.

Washington and St.Louis? They would need divine intervention to get in. Although it worked for Minnesota last year. SO all these vyers for that last spot have to go through one another to get there. It looks to be a bloodbath, and it looks to be a hell of a lot of fun . . .

For the want of a Niner game, let’s go over the team at the midway point of the season. Offensively, the team has survived a bunch of preseason (and regular season) injuries to get themselves back into the playoff picture when it was a little murky after week 3 and the Niners were 1-2. Those first 3 games were strangely pass oriented. It worked for the Green Bay game, but the Seattle and Indy games were laden with sacks, hurries, and no continuity or sustained running. Both games were close heading into the 4th quarters, but both ended up being blowouts as the defense faded from being on the field too long, and the offense kept turning the ball over.

Since those games however, the Niners have once again strapped themselves to the bell cow, Frank Gore. He is seemingly just as fresh as he was 5 years ago, and is still playing at a very high level. With Gore running successfully, other aspects of the offense now work. The passing game has gotten fairly effective, even though there are mainly two targets, VD and Anquan Boldin. Bruce Miller has come on as a check down, after some early season drops (the Seattle game especially he dropped a TD). The Niners even threw a swing pass to Gore last week (!). The good news is Marion Manningham will soon be back on the field for the 2nd half push. And Colin Kaepernick, who overcame a foot injury in the Green Bay game, has settled down and has once again become a viable read-option threat.

Defensively, the team has overcome injuries to the D line. Ian Williams was knocked out of the season with a broken ankle in week 2 on a cheap-shot block low and behind Williams, and Glenn Dorsey has been in and out with different tweaks. Nnamdi Asomugha went down to injury, but has been more than ably replaced by Tremaine Brock. Then there is the machinations of Aldon Smith and his arrests, rehab, and subsequent reinstatement a few days ago. Through all this, the defense has gotten stronger, due to the emergence of guys like Corey Lemonier and rookie safety Eric Reid. Patrick Willis as fought through injuries, but the star so far is NaVorro Bowman. He leads the team in tackles, and is all over the place.

The good news for the team is the injuries and distractions they have overcome to build this 6-2 record. I don’t know how or if the injury to Kaepernick had anything to do with the stopping of the read-option (and I actually called for it in the GB game), but the offense was out of sync until the ground game got going in week 4 against the Rams. The team is getting depth help from Quinton Dial and Tank Carradine after this bye, as well as Manningham, and hopefully soon, Michael Crabtree.

The team is setting up to be in good shape for the 2nd half of the season. How this shakes out with Seattle and their injury problems with their O lline remains to be seen. I’m not holding out much hope for TB to do anything on the road in Seattle, but the Atl game next week may be a stumbling block for them. The hope is the Niners can get to the Dec 8th game with Seattle even with them.

UPDATE: Aldon Smith was activated by the 49ers from the Non-Football Injury list

Aldon Smith has returned to team headquarters today. Whether he can play soon or even at all remains to be seen. He has his Nov 12 appearance for the 3 weapons charges he faces, as well as a Nov 19 court date for the DUI arrest that put him into rehab in the first place. Tell ya one thing. That must have been one hell of a party. He got stabbed, weapons were fired, and Smith ends up getting arrested for assault weapons charges.

Not sure how the fact that the cops invited Smith to go to a shooting range plays into this, but it can’t help the prosecution’s case very much. I’m sure that the weapons charges will get pled down to misdemeanors, but the DUI thing still has to be dealt with. Although the ‘good faith’ deal of Smith going to rehab and thus missing 5 games also plays into the league’s reaction. I suppose the next couple weeks of his being with the team and how he addresses these things in public will play their role as well. Act contrite and talk about changing your life, and that works with Goodie Goodell’s perception-is-everything idea of cleaning up his league. Act like a stupid punk going forwardand pay the price. I don’t think he, or the team, is that dense though. He will likely be in lockdown mode as the team has assured him that one more wrong move and he’ll be tossed from the team. if not the league.

That’s all well and good. I sincerely hope he gets his shit together and stays with the team, as he is a once-in-a-generation talent, and seems to be a nice kid, if not caught up in a bunch of shit. The party seemed to bring some nasty shit to the forefront for him, but the DUI stuff has dogged him for a while now. Is it simply the exuberance of youth? Too much too soon for a young man? A thug escaping the hood? Truth be told no one knows but Aldon and his family. When he was drafted, I didn’t hear anything regarding red flags or behavior issues around him, but then again, I hadn’t heard of him at all until the Niners drafted him.

The unspoken elephant in the room regarding him (and a few other mercurial talents that get in trouble) is that HE doesn’t really have to do much to get right back into the league with an enormous contract under his belt, provided he doesn’t kill himself or someone else. Whether he is suspended for all of this year and next, cut from the Niners and even does some jail time, teams will line up to sign him after he has faced his obligations, whatever they may be. The league is filled with guys who have faced many differing charges and have come back. Pacman Jones being the most glaring example. He was on probation when drafted for a bar fight, and arrested for vandalizing a nightclub in Nashville before ever playing a down in the NFL. Then there was the public drunkenness arrest, and the infamous ‘making it rain’ beating of a stripper and subsequent gunplay. He served time, was suspended for a year, and generally kept screwing up for years. Even after the shooting incident, he was involved in other shootings and general unruliness. He’s currently playing very well for the Bengals on a 3 year deal.

The point? Well, Aldon still holds all the chips in his future. If he gets his shit together, he can reap tons of money and gain possible HOF status if he keeps rolling the way he has played. Keep screwing up and he still will likely play for a lot of money, if not go through the machinations of jail, suspensions, fines, and other bullshit. Like I said, I hope he straightens himself out before he kills himself or someone else, or simply pisses his career away.