Forty Niners Forever

Ahhh, the trading season got an early jolt with the news that Young Sir Alex Smith was traded from the Kansas City Chiefs to the Washington Redskins. Smith, who bears the brunt of KC’s dismal 1-5 playoff record under the tutelage of Andy (close, but no Monica) Reid, made the playoffs 4 of the 5 years that Smith was the starter.

As Young Sir Alex had here, he had a ton of supporters and detractors railing in the blogosphere regarding his greatness, his game-managey-ness, his close calls, and his ultimate failure to get over the hump and into the Super Bowl. His tenure in SF was a rollercoaster ride of rookie nerves, a boatload of coordinators, and the revival under Coach Harbaugh and an NFC championship game for a brief shining moment of glory in 2011 before Kyle Williams decided to imprint his name next to Preston Riley as the most hated 49er in fandom. The next year of course, Alex was benched after being concussed while having his best season as a Niner. Smith was traded after that 2012 season, and the Colin Kaepernick Experience came and went like a fart in the wind.

Funny thing is, Smith just had his best season as a pro in KC this season. He threw for over 4,000 yards, had a 67% completion percentage, led the NFL with a 104.7 QBR, and 26 TDs to 5 picks. Of course, as is the problem, when the playoffs rolled around, he came up short. Of course, he threw 2 TDs, no picks, and competed 72% of his attempts (24-33) so it’s kinda hard to pin that on him. Much like the playoff game of 2013 against the Colts where KC blew a 38-10 lead.  Smith threw for 378, 4 TDs, 0 picks, and 30-46 (65%).

So, the Redskins get a guy with a solid rep, a solid body of work, but some questions around the playoff shortcomings. Frankly, Alex seems snakebit. The Indy game saw Jamal Charles get hurt, and all the DBs go down in the 2nd half. That doesn’t excuse the 3-and-outs engineered by Alex, but it also shines a light on the coaching staff. Andy Reid should be equally maligned for the playoff failings. Especially when the Titans, who were shit against the run, didn’t have to defend it in the latest playoff loss.  Reid should have kept pounding the run to burn clock and to not let Tenn back into the game.

I’m surprised Andy still has a job.

How bout that Pro Bowl? didn’t see it, don’t know who won, don’t even know where they played it. I’m assuming it’s somewhere near ROB as he said he might go. so, Flo Rida? Did you go ROB??? Speaking of bowls, the 49ers met with UTEP guard Will Hernandez at the Senior Bowl a couple weeks ago. Hernandez, who is 6′ 3″ and 330 lb is rated as the 2nd or 3rd best guard coming of the board, behind of course Quentin Nelson. He got a ton of positive press during practice week, and the only knock is his apparently short arms.

Thing is, he’s not worth a 9 pick, and he’ll likely be gon by the time we take our 2nd pick (NO’s 2nd round pick at 59), so the deal here is we trade down. Frankly I like this thought as we need a lot of depth, and getting more picks in the high and middle rounds is very prudent. Hernandez started 49 straight games, and over 2,800 snaps during his college career, and seems to be the real deal. He’s a straight-ahead blocker, so he’ll need to adapt to our zone blocking scheme, but then again, we didn’t run ZBS all the  time. Here’s a nice write-up on him from another blog.

<blockquote>https://www.the49ershub.com/single-post/2018/01/24/My-Left-Guard-OG-Will-Hernandez</blockquote&gt;

Hey who knows? I’d be much happier with this guy and Garnett than what we had last year.

PS. I do miss Twin’s love for Young Sir Alex.

He hasn’t been here in a while but just wanted to pass along that Michael (Twinfan) Scott passed away on 12/31. For those you you that don’t know, his father was Ray Scott, CBS football announcer, that, among a ton of other games, did the Ice Bowl between Green Bay and Dallas back in 1967.

Twinfan was extremely knowledgeable about baseball, extremely opinionated about football, and could get extremely annoying about anything at any time. I had more that my share of run-ins with him here, at oneflapdown77.com (Flav’s baseball blog), the old Splash, and the old Niner Insider Chronicle blogs.

I first ran into the buzzsaw that was Twinfan on the Splash blog in 2006, and he wasted no time in vilifying me as a sub-human cretin who beat his children because I didn’t know what OPS+ or WAR meant. On the flip side, he regularly came up with contests to give away expensive computers to the winners, and was a caring giving person in real-life. He battled Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma for 20+ years due to exposure to Agent Orange in Viet Nam. In the myriad emails he sent me telling me what an idiot I was at running a blog, he also was a genuine gentleman who cared for his wife dearly, and told mer a few times that blogging was keeping him going as he health failed.

Based on all the physical pain, suffering, and multiple brain surgeries he went through, my hope is he enjoyed some of this as he railed against us.

R.I.P. Michael

Word on the street is that the 49ers are very interested in Ezekiel Ansah, FA DE who played for the Lions, amassed 12 sacks last year, and 14.5 the year before. More than enough for a team that ranked 26th in sacks with 30. He’ll cost, but one thing the Niners have is a shit-ton of cap space. Somewhere in the $100 million range.

<blockquote>http://ninerswire.usatoday.com/2018/01/23/free-agent-ezekiel-ansah-would-force-49ers-to-balance-risk-versus-reward/</blockquote&gt;

Seeing as this is the brain trust’s 2nd go-round in free agency, it’s fairly easy to see their previous track record. They got (minus a couple no-names):

• QBs (Hoyer and Hot Tub Mat) – Nice try but pfffffffft. The draft of BeatHard and the steal of Garoppolo made these guys moot and expendable.
• WRs Pierre Garcon, Marquise Goodwin and Aldrick Robinson – Garcon was playing well before he got hurt, Goodwin became Jimmy G’s go-to guy once he got in there, and Aldrick Robinson showed some decent play after struggling through a lot of the season. Robinson looks to be odd man out if we improve this position
• FB Kyle Jusczyk – A very solid pickup as he made some nice catches coming out of the backfield on sideline routes.
• OLB Malcolm Smith – Hard to say, but he’ll hopefully be ready when this season starts. May be relegated to backup depending on the draft and other FA moves.
• TE Logan Paulsen – Blocking TE that made some big drops this year. Surley we can do better.
• K Robbie Gould – Huge success. 39-41 is flat fantastic. 4-4 from 50+.
  ILB Brock Coyle – Good backup who was exposed in coverage early on. Should stick for ST role and depth.

So, four of these guys were big successes, and M Smith very well could be a keeper. Not bad for their first try. Thing is, the Niners still have holes to fill at guard, CB, WR, possibly RB, OLB, and ILB. How much of this goes to free agency?

OLB – Well, I like this guy Ansah. Dee Ford of KC is young but coming off a back injury, and Anthony Hitchens of the Cowboys is also a young guy who is available.

WR – There are a lot of intriguing guys available. Notably Jarvis Landry of the Phins, and Sammy Watkins of the Bills and Rams. They are all 25 so there’s a good chance one of these guys would be a great addition to the team. Then there is Josh (hold my joint) Gordon. He of the spectacular play, and equally spectacular penchant for getting into trouble. Terelle Pryor thrived in Cleveland, but failed in Washington. Cameron Meredith (da Bearsss) could be great but he’s also coming off a big injury.

TE – We should focus on Zach Ertz’s backup Trey Burton, who shined when Ertz went down with a concussion. Fuck Jimmy Graham.

CB – Well, there’s Malcolm Butler, though NE likely keeps him, Rashaan Melvin of the Bills, Trumaine Johnson of the Rams, and Patrick Robinson of the Iggles. All these guys are young and have enough years left.

I think Landry is gettable. As is Ansah and Ford. Burton would be a great addition to the TE ranks. Patrick Robinson as well. Those thrfoure would be a great start to free agency.

I don’t know who’s available at guard in FA, but I’m tired of typing so, have at it. I think we are in a MUCH better place than last year, but who do you think we should sign?

Say what you will about the state of the NFL these days, but that was a fairly terrible set of playoff games all the way through. The AFC title game saw the Jaguars squander a fast 14-3 start (and 20-10 4th quarter lead) to allow Tony Romo a few jizz-inducing orgasms in the press box as New England came back and won in the 4th quarter with two TDs to Danny Amendola. A particularly killer play was a pretty epic 19 yard throw from Brady to, yeah, Amendola,  on 3rd and 18. You’d think the Jags would maybe try to do more about Danny boy as he shredded their defense after Gronk was conked out.

I guess being a Pats fan must be fun, but when I look back at the 49ers run, or the Cowboys, or the Packers even, their games seemed a hell of a ot more exciting. Seeing Brady come back was kinda nice in a grand-scheme kind of way, but who didn’t see it coming? Much like the feeling I had last year when Atlanta went up 28-3 in last year’s SBLI. OK, that one was exciting. But still and all, the Pats seem to suck the life out of winning.

The other game? Jeebus. All Minnesota proved was that a solid defense can only take you so far if you have a mediocre QB at the helm. Not that it was their fault, but they were down to their 3rd string guy after both Sam Bradford went down early in the season, and Teddy Bridgewater went down earlier in the preseason. They looked sharp and scored on their first drive, but did nothing else as Philly responded with 38 unanswered points.

Super Bore LII? Well, unlike my brethren on the East Coast, I’m not as anti-Philly as anyone outside the City of Brotherly Love seems to be. I can’t even take another Brady-led Super Bowl win. so, GO PHILLY! they deserve one. And only one.

Here we are on the edge of Super Bowl LII, and the quarterbacks are:

Case Keenum
Nick Foles
Blake Bortles
Brian Hoyer (possibly)

Call me underwhelmed, but this is pretty terrible. Drew Brees had the last best shot of stopping the Patriots from yet another SB win, until Brady fucked up his thumb in Wednesday’s practice. So here we sit with a bunch of stiffs at QB, and some supposed defenses that will carry the day.

That is, until the Jags gave up 45 to us, and 42 to the Steelers. I don’t see too much hope for the Jags if Brady plays. Hoyer? Well, different story. The Paats defense was 29th in yards given up, but 5th in points allowed. Not sure how that flies, but it gives the Jags some hope. Pittsburgh was supposed to have a defense as well

Vikings Eagles? Shit, who knows? Vikings have the better defense, but this is a game of 7 yard dswing passes and dumps to backs out of the backfield. All day. Kinda like the Harbaugh Niners with Young Sir Alex. ZZZZzzzzzzzz

At this point we should be favored to win the Super Bowl next year.

I got Minn 27 – Philly 17

NE 31 – Jax 20

As I said earlier, I think we need to go pass rusher first, but it looks like the Chubbster, as well as Arden Key, look to be drafted ahead of our 9/10 spot. The Raiders desperately need an inside linebacker so they won’t take a pick from us. The Browns, Giants, and Jets (pending free agency moves) will go Darnold/Rosen/Allen, and the Browns will prolly get Barkley with their 4. That leaves Harold Landry from Penn State as the best pass rusher available. Actually, Key may be available as he has an injury history behind him, so he may fall a la Reuben Foster last year. I’d still take Landry.

Thing is, though, given the needs of the teams ahead of us, Quentin Nelson could still be there, Courtland Sutton could be there, and any number of CBs not named Minkah Fitzpatrick will be there. Guard usually isn’t drafted this high, but it is a big need for us. I would be surprised, but not too surprised to see us draft him. We’ll likely fix the O line in free agency and go for a CB if our pass rusher isn’t there.

Speaking of CB, there’s the Ohio State guy, Denzel Ward, short-time starter, who looks to fly up the board as draft day nears. He’s smallish at 5’10, 195, but he’s a smart, aggressive, and fast, who has long arms and can play press or zone coverage equally well. He’s rarely out of position and has great make-up speed. I wouldn’t be too surprised at this pick either.

What say you?

Well, that was nuts. Pittsburgh gained 545 yards of offense, scored 42 points, and lost. Jacksonville gained 378 yards and won. Ben Roethlesburger went 37 for 58 for 469 yards, and 5 TDs and lost. Blake Bortles went 14-26 and a whopping 218 yards and 1 TD, and won. Even the run game was fairly even with Fournette gaining 109, and Bell gaining 67. the apparent killer was Bortles gaining 35 yards on the ground.

Baffling to me was Pittsburgh playing their defense so soft underneath. Bortles isn’t Dan Marino. Or even Frank Marino. He’s a journeyman soft-throwing game manager. TEs and RBs gained tons of yards on 8 yard passes over and over. it worked for the Steelers as well, but really, play up on these guys. I can see the threat of Big Ben going deep, and he did. A lot. But Bortles? Unreal that he was able to hit so many short passes for big chunks of yards.

Speaking of unreal, there was the Saints/Vikings game. Another game that got out of hand early for the favorite, but N’Awlins did manage to take the lead late. The game saw 4 lead changes in the last 3 minutes as both defenses took turns allowing underneath pass after underneath pass. Case Keenum made his bones throwing blind ducks that were for the most part completed. His one pick late in the 3rd quarter should have been his undoing, but he threw 3 more. One of which set up a late FG that temporarily gave Minn the lead late.  Brees? Sure, I get playing your defense a bit loose to stop the deep balls, but Keenum is another game manager sho simply hit short pass after short pass. His one nice pass, the one that won the game, should have been the game ending stat-padder, but the whiff by Saint DB Marcus Williams allowed the score on the final play of the game.

The other games? Well, Atlanta was the first favorite of the weekend to fall behind early and spend the rest of the game chasing their tails.They did a fair imitation of the 49ers in Super Bowl XLVIII by choking away a great opportunity to win the game with a 1st and goal as time was running down, and blew it in the end with some worthless faide attempts.

NE was NE. However, an obvious false-start penalty was inexplicably reversed in the Pats favor, and it turned into a pivotal point as, instead of NE punting from their own 9, they were gifted a 1st down, which they then turned into a TD to make the score 21-7. Needless to say, the punt would have changed the future of the game as Tenn would have likely gotten great field position and could have tie the score. As it was . . . oh well. The Pats are a team that seemingly gets every break in the book, and then some. As NJ noted, though, the team that stands directly in their path has a man that has beaten them on a couple of occasions. Tom Coughlin.

The hope is he has one more game left in him to stop the Patriots.

Week 2 of the full-on win-or-go-home football games. The AFC looks to be Pittsburgh and NE. I’d be floored if it doesn’t go this way. The NFC is more of a crap shoot.  Philly would be the pre-emptive fave if Wentz didn’t go down, but now it is Foles vs Matty Ice.  I’m going with the Falcons, even though they have been fairly underwhelming this season.

Minn New Orleans looks like another barnburner, but again, I’m going with the better QB in Drew Brees. The Saints have won on the road and this game shouldn’t be a prob.

Pitt should take care of Jax. I mean we beat them with our ramshackle team. Same with Tenn. If we are better than half the current AFC playoff teams, then we area lock next year. NE in a wipeout.

Feb. 20 — First day for teams to designate franchise or transition players. The deadline to designate players is March 6 at 2 p.m. MT.

Feb. 27 – March 5 — NFL scouting combine at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

March 12 -14 — Legal tampering period for NFL teams to negotiate new contracts with 2018 free agents. Deals cannot be signed until the start of the new league year, at Noon PT on March 14.

March 14 — Start of the 2018 league year. At Noon PT , new contracts can be signed and the trading period begins.

March 25-28 — Annual league meeting in Orlando.

April 2 — Teams that hired new head coaches after the end of the 2017 season can begin offseason workout programs.

April 16 — Teams with returning head coaches can begin offseason workout programs.

April 20 — Deadline for restricted free agents to sign offer sheets.

April 26-28 — NFL draft at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

SUCH EXCITEMENT!!

Anyhow, what with the only cool thing coming up that is 49er-relate, we have free agency and the draft.

Biggest Needs in No Particular Order:

Wide Receiver: If this season has shown us anything it is that Jimmy G can make a pedestrian WR corps look pretty special. That being said, we will get Pierre Garcon back, as well as the resurgent Marquise Goodwin. Trent Taylor proved to be a decent slot/3rd down option as well. The rest were meh. I suspect a couple FA signings to bolster this group. Donte Moncrief is a possible guy who wouldn’t cost too much. the big FAs (Davonte Adams) will likely just re-up. We could even trade down in the 1st round and go for a guy like the previously mentioned Courtland Sutton out of SMU.

Cornerback: Despite being thin at the position, the 49ers traded Rashard Robinson for a song (and a 5th round pick) from the Jets midway through the 2017 season. Apparently he had gotten into a couple fights on the team plane and was a bit of a head-case on the sidelines. To further that thought, Robinson was arrested last night for possession of edibles and driving erratically. Ahkello Witherspoon showed up his freshman season and played very well. Dontae Johnson didn’t. We desperately need another corner.

Will Minkah Fitzpatrick be there with the 9th/10th pick? Probably not what with CB being so in-demand, but there are some FAs available, notably Malcolm Butler and Patrick Robinson.

Edge Rusher: Another huge need is the pass rush. While the D line is fairly stout against the run, with a healthy 3.8 yard average gain per, the pass rush was a woeful 26th in the league with 30 sacks. We won ourselves out of the Bradley Chubb sweepstakes, so he’s out. However, BC’s Harold Landry and Okla’s Ogbonnia Okoronkwo are a coupe guys that most likely will be available. Guys out there available are Koly Ealy of the jets (who was tossed by NE), or Ezekiel Ansah. Both would be a vast improvement over what we’ve gotten.

And finally:

Guard: Yeah yeah, Bergs, guard. When Joshua Garnett went down, the thinness at that position reared its ugly head in a big way. Zane (beat the) Meatles, Laken Tomlinson, and Brandon Fusco all proved to be pieces of dried dog shit. The Niners need to address this with likely an FA or two, and a draft pick or two. The FA gets, are Andrew Norwell from the Panthers (he’s gonna cost), and Justin Pugh of the New York Football Giants. Tomlinson may be the only one to survive the offseason. Beadles and Fusco need to depart.

The draft? Say it with me, Bergs: Quentin Nelson. 

Since free agency happens before the draft, it’s hard to figure how they go in the draft. That being said, I think the needs for the team break down this way:

1. Edge Rusher
2. Cornerback
3. Guard
4. Wide Receiver

I know we keep drafting for defense, and defensive linemen at that (3 in a row), but still and all, this is our biggest hole. A strong pass rush helps out for the next need, cornerback.

The O? well, yeah, the interior line play was terrible in 2017. The hope that with better guard play will come better play from Daniel Kilgore. He’s only 30 and should have some good years left, but his play suffered badly last year.

The rest? RB depends on what Hyde does. LB is thin. safety is in pretty good shape with Jimmie Ward, Jaquizz Tartt, and the rest coming back from injury. reid ended up playing well, and the young guys like Colbert and even CB Greg Mabin played well in limited time.

_______________________________

Free agency will give us a hint as to the direction they go. Funny thing is, I really think that what we say here jives with what actually happens. Unlike the Baalke era where Baalke NEVER drafted for need and instead seemingly picked random names out of a hat. Most famously, AJ Jenkins, whose name was placed in an envelope before the draft as the guy they desperately wanted.  WOOF!