And not a moment too soon. Some folks are losing their collective shit regarding the delay around the 2014 draft. Apparently there was a scheduling conflict with some bumb-ass show that somehow already shut down because of shitty ticket sales. That’s what you get for screwing around with the draft. Personally, I think Jolly Roger Goodell was staging this as a test-bed for moving the draft later in the year to build his grand design of a year-round football season. Start free agency (and thus the new season) in early March to keep the fires stoked for all things football. As much as everyone including Spuds MacKenzie loves everything football, turns out a little down time isn’t so bad either. I don;t think Goodie Goodell will get his changes any time soon.
I don’t know or care if the delay is a big problem in the real world, but in Bloggoland, you’d think they were moving Christmas to July.
All the extra two weeks brought us was two more weeks of Mel Kiper’s unholy head of hair plastered across my big screen TV. Two more weeks of bizarre NFL Network programming of strange-but-true draft stories. Who knew the draft of 1964 (which netted the 49ers one of my favorite players to wear the red and gold, Dave Wilcox) would produce 10 NFL Hall of Fame players, and one Hall of Fame coach?
I didn’t. I think we all know what the 49ers needs are in the draft. CB, WR, CB, SS, DT, QB, G, C, RB, QB, DE. Something like that.
Forty Niners Forever 
Safety too.
Ahhh, yer right. I’ll change that.
If the reports are true and Alex Smith is really looking for 14 to 17 mil then its no surprise to me the talks are going slowly and the Chiefs are talking about taking a QB in the first round. That is simply too much money for his skillset.
BLEEP the Chiefs!
Alex Alex Alex. The gift that keeps on giving. KC’s up to something here. Their last 5 QBs combined were dead meats on a stick and they don’t want to pay Smith decent money? Curious on the face of things. I guess it keeps coming back to Jerry Jerk-off and his overpaying of Romo, and the Bears rewarding Cutler for sucking. $15-$16 mill certainly isn’t outlandish.
Has Reid weighed in on this idea of replacing Smith with a rookie? The Chiefs are light on draft picks this year, and it certainly isn’t 2011 in terms of draftable QB talent. They could simply go after Fales in the 3rd, but a lot of other people think the same thing.
Asking isn’t getting.
NoFear’s Alex radar must be ringing ight about now . . .
Your argument is that the market sets the price and largely that is correct and I agree with it. But it is also based on ROI for the position. Because Alex is better than the last stiff doesn’t make him worth 17 mil which is the low end of elite money. Scarcity of QB is a factor too but can you in all honesty say Alex is worth 17 mil? I would put him at 11 max 12 mil and honestly only that high precisely because of the current dearth of QB talent and the over payment of Cutler, Romo etc. If I was the Chiefs I would stand firm and take a QB in the first 3 picks. I don’t see teams knocking down Alex Smith’s door to pay him 17 mil.
Dave Wilcox was one of my favorites too Chuck!
Between LB #64 (Wilcox) and CB #37 Jimmy Johnson , 2 Hall of Famers that most teams avoided to exploit. Lining up on the same strong side they were that good, teams just picked on Kermit Alexander or Bruce Taylor,and the weak left side of the D most games!
Wilcox was a savage, just fantastic against the run,as was Jimmy against the pass!
I think Alex is worth $15-$16 mill. And if you don’t think that the previous guys don’t matter, yer nuts. Desperation for a bona fide starter drives these prices up in the first place. Which is how you get Romo at $18 mill.
Yeah AK. Jimmy Johnson was another of my faves as a kid. Gene Washington as well.
Well I didn’t say they don’t matter. I said they don’t artificially elevate the pay/value of Alex just because they were stiffs. His value has to stand on its own merits rather than “as compared to xyz”. 15 to 16 mil is a lot of moola for an above mid level skill QB so I guess we disagree on his value. He has improved his game over the years and is a good guy in the league. Maybe they pay him that kind of money but I doubt it. Will be interesting to see how it shakes out. I wonder if the respective agents of Kap and Alex are waiting to see who sets the bar first?
You think Alex is worth $15 -16 million? Is Monday the day you smoke crack? Got the house to yourself, smoke a little crack. Do some blogging? Must be Mondays.
What do you feel Alex is worth Spit?
$10-12. Here’s a game manager who can’t throw deep. Those guys aren’t that hard to find. They aren’t abundant because everyone in the NFL is trying to find the next Brett Favre, and rightly so. But if the goal was to create game managers who’d never win the Super Bowl, Alex Smith would be a dime a dozen. He’s not hard to duplicate. His skill set isn’t extraordinary.
You might as well keep up your abject wrongness about the guy going, Spit. You don;t have a clue.
The deal is, you think that 3 br 1 bath 1,200 sf unrestored house with a leaky roof and a crumbling foundation in Palo Alto is worth $950,000? Fuck no, But that’s the price you pay to get in the door.
They low ball Alex to what end? Chase Daniel? A rook? Hell of a chance to take.
Explain to me what they’d risk starting a rookie? Did they win a playoff game?
They got to the playoffs. skippy. Look how well they did with Cassel.
Yeah…. Cassel and Romeo Crennel….. Andy Reid could have taken a journey man qb like Nick Foles and gone to the playoffs. And don’t tell me my thoughts on Foles are hindsight. I was writing that pre-Smith trade.
Is Smith worth Rivers/Stafford money? ~$15 mill? Sure.
Smith is no Rivers IMO. Stafford is a guy with superior arm talent but so far he has hit or miss decision making ability. The Lions had to pay a butt load to sign him as a rookie and re-upped him again for 3 years @ 41 mil guaranteed. I would say Stafford has more raw talent than Smith but Smith is the safer bet to win/not lose games. Stafford is overpaid based on recent results IMO but if the light comes on for him he has the potential worth paying for..
Alex Smith is Rivers or Stafford? When do you run out of crack on Monday nights? It’s good for blog hits, but the stuff is addicting…. and it hurts your credibility.
How many playoff games has Stafford won?
Rivers is all over the place.
Every Agent plays the Comp game with Contracts.
When a buffoon like Jerruh overpays Romo etc, they all figure they have a foothold on the stats.
Alex and Romo are about in the same boat there but, neither has done much in terms of the Playoff hurdles.
It is a market-based process of course, until someone blinks.
Gabbert was a steal and could easily prove to be a future Draft Pick for us in Trade value.
As with Flacco, it’a all about leverage.
Ozzie blinked and rode it to the wire.
I fully expect Baalke to Draft a future QB this week also, which puts additional pressure on Kaeps’ Agent to settle up on a manageable deal.
Too many Teams have come unglued due to Cap Killer QB deals.
GMs have to maintain the leverage with depth in all the key areas of production.
One thing we know of Paraag and Baalke, they have a hard number that works for the Cap and they don’t seem to deviate much.
Here’s our offer, if you don’t find it to your liking, feel free to test the market.
Fewer and fewer Teams have Cap $$$ to burn and the Rookie Cap is doing just what it was intended to do, water down the payroll.
Agree NJ, Particularly the Niners seem to have a number they will pay and that’s it from what we know. I agree with that philosophy in most cases. Obviously there are exceptions but as a business model I like it.
Was wondering if you had any thoughts about a value for Alex Smith and how that may or may not affect the Kap contract?
Truthfully 12th, I think Alex should come in behind Kaep.
I think the value of a big-armed QB with the ability to run sets it’s own bar.
Alex, to me, is mid-tier material.
As Spit suggests, he’s unable to make every throw and, he brings nothing in terms of elusiveness, as a running threat.
I’d put him around $12M, if even that high.
He’s nothing special to me.
Give me a guy that scares people and I’d be more inclined to pay upper echelon dough.
Bradford is in the same boat with Alex.
The last of the Pre-Rookie Cap QBs.
Teams that play it properly, will keep heavier head counts on the Roster that fall under Rookie Deals.
Once they show their worth, they’ll get taken care of.
Bradford, for all intents and purposes, is a bust too.
Alex has seen his share of $$$.
If I were KC, I’d make Alex blink.
You can’t succeed in this game by overpaying a game manager.
Too many other pieces are needed to win.
You have an opinion on Kap’s value?
What was Smith paid in his last contract with the 49ers? Wasn’t it like 8-9 million per year? That was before the rookie salary cap, or right around then. Wages have decreased, not increased. Now Chuck thinks Smith’s value has doubled either due to excessive crack smoking or a desire to increase blog hits. Bong hits?
Smith… after his best season ever, signed a deal with the 49ers for 8 million per year. And that was only two years ago. And remember…. Smith got no love in free agency, which is why Andy Reid’s move to trade two picks was so curious. Remember Smith going to the Dolphins and not even getting an offer?
The reality is Chuck’s found a way tonight to re-live the Alex Smith blog glory years. Smith’s market value didn’t just magically double because Chuck says so. Chuck’s argument is designed, once again, around getting blog hits. But the reality is, he does himself no favors.
There are rumours Smith is looking for 14-17 mil but to be fair to Chuck he did say 15 was what he thought Smith was worth a while ago. Smith got 8 mil contract and 1 mil bonus the last year with the Niners. Low ball for him maybe but not by 50%
Alex is playing for $9M with $3M guaranteed right now.
Float him a 3yr extension at $40-50M and guarantee him 30-40%.
Draft his successor this week, cut Alex in year 2.
Or better yet, give Harbaugh a year to get Gabbert polished up, then Trade him to KC for another Pick.
So Spit, NJ and myself have a consensus 11 mil +-. Chuck leads the pack with 15-16 mil. Anyone else care to chime in?
12th I’ve already proposed a deal for Kaep in the 7/$120M area.
That puts him in the Romo/Cutler range, which isn’t fair to Kaep because neither Romo or Cutler deserved those deals.
Guys like Eli and Big Ben are already behind them while already winning the Rings.
Then you start getting into the Peyton,Brees,Flacco,Matty Ice level of compensation.
For me, Kaep would land between $16-18M.
Can Paraag sell it?
That’s the quandary.
Kaep is holding some leverage simply because Romo/Cutler got overpaid.
Big Ben has already received the most cash of any QB in the NFL, at least until the P. Manning deal. Agree Romo/Cutler are outlier numbers and undeserving. I have Kap at 16 and you at 17 so not far off there. I don’t see him signing more than 5 years though.
As with any deal, it’s the guaranteed portion that makes or breaks the Cap.
The Stafford deal is a Cap Killer because nearly 80% of his Contract is guaranteed.
Aaron Rodgers is the Top Dog in terms of Contract Value but, he’s only guaranteed 49% of it.
The art of the deal is satisfying the guaranteed portion for as little as possible.
That’s why I’d be inclined to prop up the overall Contract Value for a longer term, as Kaep is young enough to see it through.
Just keep the guaranteed bucks low enough to maintain Cap integrity.
The risk with Kaep is the concern about a devastating injury he might incur, due to his propensity to scoot, and make himself vulnerable to a shot on the knees.
Vick was a mega-dollar QB that ran a lot too.
Fun to watch, weapons in their own right but, extremely vulnerable to a devastating injury because of the way they play.
I’ll be very surprised if he gets under $14 mill. His value doubled because he’s better than what the Chiefs have, and they don’t want to start over. Plain and simple, fuck-o. Was 2-14 to 12-4 a mirage? Not bad, even for a game manager. Take your back seat psychology and blow it out your ass.
You got a pity POTD, skippy No more for you . . .
This deserves POTD “You got a pity POTD, skippy No more for you . . .”
Ala the Soup Nazi from Seinfeld –
No POTD for YOU!
Bradford is signed through 2016 with his original Rookie Deal of $78M guaranteed at 64%.
StL should definitely be thinking about using one of those Picks this week, to grab his replacement.
They’re stuck with a heavy number on him for at least 2 more years.
It’s a shell game of moving numbers from Contract to Contract, while keeping the guaranteed bucks at a minimum.
I think Paraag does a masterful job of keeping the bottom line in SF in excellent shape.
Was just reading that LSU WR Jarvis Landry is a cousin to Glenn Dorsey.
Love everything about Jarvis except his speed.
Ala Boldin, he’s a battler that wins a lot of the tough battles.
Can’t rule him out of the equation as a possible Draft option for us.
Had to eliminate him on my wish list but he’s a solid kid.
NJ49er, all the GM talk I hear now says you pay three guys, QB, pass rush, CB. The rest can come and go as needed for cap room. If that’s the way to keep the cap tuned up while keeping the team competitive, we’re pretty well upside down in that philosophy.
Bringing the fans’ wrath down on Frank for getting stuffed behind the LOS so often, our o-line, for example, didn’t nearly live up to its percentage of the team’s treasure this year.
A big contract to CK7 means he’s the guy, for better or worse, for the next four years or more. At least in the case of a QB he might make the grade and be worth the hit but for some like o-line or d-line, it might be a bad bargain even if the guy plays as well as expected. Look at how Suh’s got the Lions snookered with his big dollar deal.
As for Alex, his value is not as simple as street value, because it’s going to be KC’s people guessing what they think his street value is and Alex’s agent making the same guess. Both sides are often wrong in this guessing game and pay the price by over-paying or losing a good player.
One thing about Alex at this point in his career, the coaches and GMs know what they are going to get for their money. With CK7 it’s still a lot about potential unrealized as yet. I’d like to have another season in his body of work first and see a lot more of his passing and ability to deal with average and above pro defenses first.
Hey NoFear49er – Long time….
I hear you on the philosophy of Cap balance.
As indicated earlier, I’d prefer longer terms and lower guaranteed bucks.
That’s been my MO regarding QB Contracts, they can kill a Team if not balanced properly with the overall Team needs.
We’re on a dangerous precipice with a promising young QB, that isn’t polished in the finer points of the position, at this point.
In terms of having the extra year, it would be nice but, as we know, Kaep was a 2nd RD Pick which didn’t afford the option year.
As the worm turned, it appears Aldon will need that extra year to determine his viable long-term existence.
I would tweak the Cap philosophy just a bit to favor a S over a CB but, it’s a minor thing.
You need them both to be successful. See Dick Sherman and Earl Thomas.
What could end up happening is we part ways with Crabtree in order to retain Kaep and perhaps Iupati.
I’m OK with Kaep getting paid, I’d just prefer to see him pick up the mental adjustments before taking off. That’s on the Coaching IMO.
I’m a firm believer in the Trenches too.
No QB is worth squat if he’s running for his life.
Likewise, you want your DL to keep the opposing QB running for his.
I think Baalke secured his Safety last year with Reid.
I’m in favor of seeking the complimentary CB Thursday Night over the WR.
I just feel the DB has a quicker shot to contribute.
We’ll see how Baalke plays the Board.
Always entertaining from my perspective.
I’m expecting a Cowboys fan to attend my Draft Party Thursday Night.
Hoping like H3LL Jerruh makes an unexpected pitch for Johnnie Football too.
That would topple the expected Draft pecking order, while sending my buddy into a spastic, convulsive fit.
Then, I’d like to see us pull of the rumored Trade Up with Brother John in Baltimore, to leap-frog my Philly buddy’s Eagles to snag Fuller or Pryor, maybe Shazier.
I’d mark that as one of life’s priceless moments. :-0
I’m very curious to see whether Shazier is athletic enough to take a shot at SS?
He’d be an amazing addition to the Secondary, he’s a rock-solid tackler and, an all around bell-ringer.
Kam Chancellor-type Enforcer with 4.3 speed and leaping ability. (42″ vert)
He qualifies as a viable ‘Freak’ IMO, just as Vernon was when he came out.
BLEEP Alex……He’s their problem. BLEEP the past. It ain’t coming back. The future is a Joe Montana flag football game. How many will have to roll out of a wheelchair to play?