Draft Day Cometh . . . . . Soooooneth . . . . . . . .

And not a moment too soon. Some folks are losing their collective shit regarding the delay around the 2014 draft. Apparently there was a scheduling conflict with some bumb-ass show that somehow already shut down because of shitty ticket sales. That’s what you get for screwing around with the draft. Personally, I think Jolly Roger Goodell was staging this as a test-bed for moving the draft later in the year to build his grand design of a year-round football season. Start free agency (and thus the new season) in early March to keep the fires stoked for all things football.  As much as everyone including Spuds MacKenzie loves everything football, turns out a little down time isn’t so bad either. I don;t think Goodie Goodell will get his changes any time soon.

I don’t know or care if the delay is a big problem in the real world, but in Bloggoland, you’d think they were moving Christmas to July.

All the extra two weeks brought us was two more weeks of Mel Kiper’s unholy head of hair plastered across my big screen TV. Two more weeks of bizarre NFL Network programming of strange-but-true draft stories. Who knew the draft of 1964 (which netted the 49ers one of my favorite players to wear the red and gold, Dave Wilcox) would produce 10 NFL Hall of Fame players, and one Hall of Fame coach?

I didn’t. I think we all know what the 49ers needs are in the draft. CB, WR, CB, SS, DT, QB, G, C, RB, QB, DE. Something like that.

About unca_chuck

Lifelong SF 49ers, SF Giants, and Golden State Warriors fan
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91 Responses to Draft Day Cometh . . . . . Soooooneth . . . . . . . .

  1. 12th man says:

    Safety too.

  2. unca_chuck says:

    Ahhh, yer right. I’ll change that.

  3. 12th man says:

    If the reports are true and Alex Smith is really looking for 14 to 17 mil then its no surprise to me the talks are going slowly and the Chiefs are talking about taking a QB in the first round. That is simply too much money for his skillset.

    http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/05/05/stalled-talks-for-alex-smith-lead-to-report-of-chiefs-qb-interest/

  4. unca_chuck says:

    Alex Alex Alex. The gift that keeps on giving. KC’s up to something here. Their last 5 QBs combined were dead meats on a stick and they don’t want to pay Smith decent money? Curious on the face of things. I guess it keeps coming back to Jerry Jerk-off and his overpaying of Romo, and the Bears rewarding Cutler for sucking. $15-$16 mill certainly isn’t outlandish.

    Has Reid weighed in on this idea of replacing Smith with a rookie? The Chiefs are light on draft picks this year, and it certainly isn’t 2011 in terms of draftable QB talent. They could simply go after Fales in the 3rd, but a lot of other people think the same thing.

  5. unca_chuck says:

    NoFear’s Alex radar must be ringing ight about now . . .

    • 12th man says:

      Your argument is that the market sets the price and largely that is correct and I agree with it. But it is also based on ROI for the position. Because Alex is better than the last stiff doesn’t make him worth 17 mil which is the low end of elite money. Scarcity of QB is a factor too but can you in all honesty say Alex is worth 17 mil? I would put him at 11 max 12 mil and honestly only that high precisely because of the current dearth of QB talent and the over payment of Cutler, Romo etc. If I was the Chiefs I would stand firm and take a QB in the first 3 picks. I don’t see teams knocking down Alex Smith’s door to pay him 17 mil.

  6. Alleykat says:

    Dave Wilcox was one of my favorites too Chuck!
    Between LB #64 (Wilcox) and CB #37 Jimmy Johnson , 2 Hall of Famers that most teams avoided to exploit. Lining up on the same strong side they were that good, teams just picked on Kermit Alexander or Bruce Taylor,and the weak left side of the D most games!
    Wilcox was a savage, just fantastic against the run,as was Jimmy against the pass!

  7. unca_chuck says:

    I think Alex is worth $15-$16 mill. And if you don’t think that the previous guys don’t matter, yer nuts. Desperation for a bona fide starter drives these prices up in the first place. Which is how you get Romo at $18 mill.

    Yeah AK. Jimmy Johnson was another of my faves as a kid. Gene Washington as well.

    • 12th man says:

      Well I didn’t say they don’t matter. I said they don’t artificially elevate the pay/value of Alex just because they were stiffs. His value has to stand on its own merits rather than “as compared to xyz”. 15 to 16 mil is a lot of moola for an above mid level skill QB so I guess we disagree on his value. He has improved his game over the years and is a good guy in the league. Maybe they pay him that kind of money but I doubt it. Will be interesting to see how it shakes out. I wonder if the respective agents of Kap and Alex are waiting to see who sets the bar first?

  8. Spitblood says:

    You think Alex is worth $15 -16 million? Is Monday the day you smoke crack? Got the house to yourself, smoke a little crack. Do some blogging? Must be Mondays.

    • 12th man says:

      What do you feel Alex is worth Spit?

      • Spitblood says:

        $10-12. Here’s a game manager who can’t throw deep. Those guys aren’t that hard to find. They aren’t abundant because everyone in the NFL is trying to find the next Brett Favre, and rightly so. But if the goal was to create game managers who’d never win the Super Bowl, Alex Smith would be a dime a dozen. He’s not hard to duplicate. His skill set isn’t extraordinary.

    • unca_chuck says:

      You might as well keep up your abject wrongness about the guy going, Spit. You don;t have a clue.

      The deal is, you think that 3 br 1 bath 1,200 sf unrestored house with a leaky roof and a crumbling foundation in Palo Alto is worth $950,000? Fuck no, But that’s the price you pay to get in the door.

      They low ball Alex to what end? Chase Daniel? A rook? Hell of a chance to take.

      • Spitblood says:

        Explain to me what they’d risk starting a rookie? Did they win a playoff game?

      • unca_chuck says:

        They got to the playoffs. skippy. Look how well they did with Cassel.

      • Spitblood says:

        Yeah…. Cassel and Romeo Crennel….. Andy Reid could have taken a journey man qb like Nick Foles and gone to the playoffs. And don’t tell me my thoughts on Foles are hindsight. I was writing that pre-Smith trade.

  9. unca_chuck says:

    Is Smith worth Rivers/Stafford money? ~$15 mill? Sure.

    • 12th man says:

      Smith is no Rivers IMO. Stafford is a guy with superior arm talent but so far he has hit or miss decision making ability. The Lions had to pay a butt load to sign him as a rookie and re-upped him again for 3 years @ 41 mil guaranteed. I would say Stafford has more raw talent than Smith but Smith is the safer bet to win/not lose games. Stafford is overpaid based on recent results IMO but if the light comes on for him he has the potential worth paying for..

    • Spitblood says:

      Alex Smith is Rivers or Stafford? When do you run out of crack on Monday nights? It’s good for blog hits, but the stuff is addicting…. and it hurts your credibility.

  10. NJ49er says:

    Every Agent plays the Comp game with Contracts.
    When a buffoon like Jerruh overpays Romo etc, they all figure they have a foothold on the stats.
    Alex and Romo are about in the same boat there but, neither has done much in terms of the Playoff hurdles.

    It is a market-based process of course, until someone blinks.
    Gabbert was a steal and could easily prove to be a future Draft Pick for us in Trade value.

    • NJ49er says:

      As with Flacco, it’a all about leverage.
      Ozzie blinked and rode it to the wire.
      I fully expect Baalke to Draft a future QB this week also, which puts additional pressure on Kaeps’ Agent to settle up on a manageable deal.

      Too many Teams have come unglued due to Cap Killer QB deals.
      GMs have to maintain the leverage with depth in all the key areas of production.

      • NJ49er says:

        One thing we know of Paraag and Baalke, they have a hard number that works for the Cap and they don’t seem to deviate much.

        Here’s our offer, if you don’t find it to your liking, feel free to test the market.
        Fewer and fewer Teams have Cap $$$ to burn and the Rookie Cap is doing just what it was intended to do, water down the payroll.

  11. 12th man says:

    Agree NJ, Particularly the Niners seem to have a number they will pay and that’s it from what we know. I agree with that philosophy in most cases. Obviously there are exceptions but as a business model I like it.
    Was wondering if you had any thoughts about a value for Alex Smith and how that may or may not affect the Kap contract?

    • NJ49er says:

      Truthfully 12th, I think Alex should come in behind Kaep.
      I think the value of a big-armed QB with the ability to run sets it’s own bar.

      Alex, to me, is mid-tier material.
      As Spit suggests, he’s unable to make every throw and, he brings nothing in terms of elusiveness, as a running threat.

      I’d put him around $12M, if even that high.
      He’s nothing special to me.
      Give me a guy that scares people and I’d be more inclined to pay upper echelon dough.

      • NJ49er says:

        Bradford is in the same boat with Alex.
        The last of the Pre-Rookie Cap QBs.
        Teams that play it properly, will keep heavier head counts on the Roster that fall under Rookie Deals.
        Once they show their worth, they’ll get taken care of.

        Bradford, for all intents and purposes, is a bust too.
        Alex has seen his share of $$$.
        If I were KC, I’d make Alex blink.

        You can’t succeed in this game by overpaying a game manager.
        Too many other pieces are needed to win.

      • 12th man says:

        You have an opinion on Kap’s value?

    • Spitblood says:

      What was Smith paid in his last contract with the 49ers? Wasn’t it like 8-9 million per year? That was before the rookie salary cap, or right around then. Wages have decreased, not increased. Now Chuck thinks Smith’s value has doubled either due to excessive crack smoking or a desire to increase blog hits. Bong hits?

  12. Spitblood says:

    Smith… after his best season ever, signed a deal with the 49ers for 8 million per year. And that was only two years ago. And remember…. Smith got no love in free agency, which is why Andy Reid’s move to trade two picks was so curious. Remember Smith going to the Dolphins and not even getting an offer?

    The reality is Chuck’s found a way tonight to re-live the Alex Smith blog glory years. Smith’s market value didn’t just magically double because Chuck says so. Chuck’s argument is designed, once again, around getting blog hits. But the reality is, he does himself no favors.

    • 12th man says:

      There are rumours Smith is looking for 14-17 mil but to be fair to Chuck he did say 15 was what he thought Smith was worth a while ago. Smith got 8 mil contract and 1 mil bonus the last year with the Niners. Low ball for him maybe but not by 50%

      • NJ49er says:

        Alex is playing for $9M with $3M guaranteed right now.

        Float him a 3yr extension at $40-50M and guarantee him 30-40%.
        Draft his successor this week, cut Alex in year 2.

        Or better yet, give Harbaugh a year to get Gabbert polished up, then Trade him to KC for another Pick.

  13. 12th man says:

    So Spit, NJ and myself have a consensus 11 mil +-. Chuck leads the pack with 15-16 mil. Anyone else care to chime in?

    • NJ49er says:

      12th I’ve already proposed a deal for Kaep in the 7/$120M area.
      That puts him in the Romo/Cutler range, which isn’t fair to Kaep because neither Romo or Cutler deserved those deals.

      Guys like Eli and Big Ben are already behind them while already winning the Rings.
      Then you start getting into the Peyton,Brees,Flacco,Matty Ice level of compensation.

      For me, Kaep would land between $16-18M.

      Can Paraag sell it?
      That’s the quandary.
      Kaep is holding some leverage simply because Romo/Cutler got overpaid.

      • 12th man says:

        Big Ben has already received the most cash of any QB in the NFL, at least until the P. Manning deal. Agree Romo/Cutler are outlier numbers and undeserving. I have Kap at 16 and you at 17 so not far off there. I don’t see him signing more than 5 years though.

      • NJ49er says:

        As with any deal, it’s the guaranteed portion that makes or breaks the Cap.
        The Stafford deal is a Cap Killer because nearly 80% of his Contract is guaranteed.

        Aaron Rodgers is the Top Dog in terms of Contract Value but, he’s only guaranteed 49% of it.

        The art of the deal is satisfying the guaranteed portion for as little as possible.
        That’s why I’d be inclined to prop up the overall Contract Value for a longer term, as Kaep is young enough to see it through.
        Just keep the guaranteed bucks low enough to maintain Cap integrity.

      • NJ49er says:

        The risk with Kaep is the concern about a devastating injury he might incur, due to his propensity to scoot, and make himself vulnerable to a shot on the knees.

        Vick was a mega-dollar QB that ran a lot too.
        Fun to watch, weapons in their own right but, extremely vulnerable to a devastating injury because of the way they play.

  14. unca_chuck says:

    I’ll be very surprised if he gets under $14 mill. His value doubled because he’s better than what the Chiefs have, and they don’t want to start over. Plain and simple, fuck-o. Was 2-14 to 12-4 a mirage? Not bad, even for a game manager. Take your back seat psychology and blow it out your ass.

    You got a pity POTD, skippy No more for you . . .

  15. 12th man says:

    This deserves POTD “You got a pity POTD, skippy No more for you . . .”

  16. NJ49er says:

    Bradford is signed through 2016 with his original Rookie Deal of $78M guaranteed at 64%.
    StL should definitely be thinking about using one of those Picks this week, to grab his replacement.
    They’re stuck with a heavy number on him for at least 2 more years.

    It’s a shell game of moving numbers from Contract to Contract, while keeping the guaranteed bucks at a minimum.
    I think Paraag does a masterful job of keeping the bottom line in SF in excellent shape.

  17. NJ49er says:

    Was just reading that LSU WR Jarvis Landry is a cousin to Glenn Dorsey.
    Love everything about Jarvis except his speed.

    Ala Boldin, he’s a battler that wins a lot of the tough battles.

    Can’t rule him out of the equation as a possible Draft option for us.
    Had to eliminate him on my wish list but he’s a solid kid.

  18. NoFear49er says:

    NJ49er, all the GM talk I hear now says you pay three guys, QB, pass rush, CB. The rest can come and go as needed for cap room. If that’s the way to keep the cap tuned up while keeping the team competitive, we’re pretty well upside down in that philosophy.

    Bringing the fans’ wrath down on Frank for getting stuffed behind the LOS so often, our o-line, for example, didn’t nearly live up to its percentage of the team’s treasure this year.

    A big contract to CK7 means he’s the guy, for better or worse, for the next four years or more. At least in the case of a QB he might make the grade and be worth the hit but for some like o-line or d-line, it might be a bad bargain even if the guy plays as well as expected. Look at how Suh’s got the Lions snookered with his big dollar deal.

    As for Alex, his value is not as simple as street value, because it’s going to be KC’s people guessing what they think his street value is and Alex’s agent making the same guess. Both sides are often wrong in this guessing game and pay the price by over-paying or losing a good player.

    One thing about Alex at this point in his career, the coaches and GMs know what they are going to get for their money. With CK7 it’s still a lot about potential unrealized as yet. I’d like to have another season in his body of work first and see a lot more of his passing and ability to deal with average and above pro defenses first.

    • NJ49er says:

      Hey NoFear49er – Long time….
      I hear you on the philosophy of Cap balance.
      As indicated earlier, I’d prefer longer terms and lower guaranteed bucks.
      That’s been my MO regarding QB Contracts, they can kill a Team if not balanced properly with the overall Team needs.

      We’re on a dangerous precipice with a promising young QB, that isn’t polished in the finer points of the position, at this point.

      In terms of having the extra year, it would be nice but, as we know, Kaep was a 2nd RD Pick which didn’t afford the option year.
      As the worm turned, it appears Aldon will need that extra year to determine his viable long-term existence.

      I would tweak the Cap philosophy just a bit to favor a S over a CB but, it’s a minor thing.
      You need them both to be successful. See Dick Sherman and Earl Thomas.

      What could end up happening is we part ways with Crabtree in order to retain Kaep and perhaps Iupati.
      I’m OK with Kaep getting paid, I’d just prefer to see him pick up the mental adjustments before taking off. That’s on the Coaching IMO.

      I’m a firm believer in the Trenches too.
      No QB is worth squat if he’s running for his life.
      Likewise, you want your DL to keep the opposing QB running for his.

      • NJ49er says:

        I think Baalke secured his Safety last year with Reid.
        I’m in favor of seeking the complimentary CB Thursday Night over the WR.
        I just feel the DB has a quicker shot to contribute.

        We’ll see how Baalke plays the Board.
        Always entertaining from my perspective.

  19. NJ49er says:

    I’m expecting a Cowboys fan to attend my Draft Party Thursday Night.
    Hoping like H3LL Jerruh makes an unexpected pitch for Johnnie Football too.
    That would topple the expected Draft pecking order, while sending my buddy into a spastic, convulsive fit.

    Then, I’d like to see us pull of the rumored Trade Up with Brother John in Baltimore, to leap-frog my Philly buddy’s Eagles to snag Fuller or Pryor, maybe Shazier.

    I’d mark that as one of life’s priceless moments. :-0

    • NJ49er says:

      I’m very curious to see whether Shazier is athletic enough to take a shot at SS?
      He’d be an amazing addition to the Secondary, he’s a rock-solid tackler and, an all around bell-ringer.

      Kam Chancellor-type Enforcer with 4.3 speed and leaping ability. (42″ vert)

      He qualifies as a viable ‘Freak’ IMO, just as Vernon was when he came out.

  20. Nipper says:

    BLEEP Alex……He’s their problem. BLEEP the past. It ain’t coming back. The future is a Joe Montana flag football game. How many will have to roll out of a wheelchair to play?

  21. unca_chuck says:

    Spitty, taking blog advice from you is like taking swimming lessons from Leon Spinks. If you think I care about blog hits, you aren’t paying attention.

    Welcome back, NoFear. I beg to differ on why Frank gets stuffed behind the line so much, but most fans aren’t blaming Frank. Or the line. It’s the play calling. It’s trying to run against 8-9 guys crowding the line. The same philosophy that Singletary especially liked. As in “we are running Frank 22 times. Pack the box.” Against weaker teams that works. Especially under Harbaugh as he has a better grasp of a passing game than either Hostler, Nolan, Jimmy-Hat, or Singletary ever did. Against better teams? Not so much. Harbaugh at this point knows he needs to show more 3 WR sets to loosen up the run game.

    And yeah, I’m with NJ. I think Crabs is a cap casualty. Dashon Goldson style. Which is why Davante Adams from Fresno looks good. They could very well go WR in the 1st, but I still lean torward them taking a CB.

    Kappy? Well, the FO needs to shit or get off the pot. They don’t really have the luxury of a wait-and-see approach. We’ll see who they draft at QB (and they will), but the onus is to keep him at a (fairly) reasonable price, as he’s the future.

    • 12th man says:

      I don’t think there is any doubt that Frank is not the force he once was despite the line not blocking well enough or that the play calling says bring 9 guys into the box cause I’m running it anyway.

      I think signing Crabs and Iupati is a less than 50% proposition given that the Niners have a number and that neither has been re-upped as of yet, something the Niners routinely do with players they are keeping. Those players trade the possibility of getting more money elsewhere for secure money for the next 3/4 years on a winning team.

      Niners need a CB or perhaps 2, S, WR, DL, RB, QB. Good options are NT, ILB, and a return specialist. I hope to see BPA in round 1. The draft has depth at the most critical needs for the Niners so lets hope Baalke picks healthy players this year instead of projects.

    • Spitblood says:

      Swimming lessons from Leon Spinks? I’m usin’ that one….

  22. unca_chuck says:

    I haven’t seen or heard much about Shazier. Got to read up on the guy . . .

    Thanks.

  23. unca_chuck says:

    NJ, this is why I think KC is up to something. Throw the red herring out there that they are looking for a QB due to stalled negotiations with Alex. Maybe force someone behind them to trade up to pick someone KC doesn’t want anyway and free up their guy in the process.

    • 12th man says:

      Yeah it could be. Disinformation season is well under way. It would surprise me to see Alex get more than 12 mil real money though.

    • NJ49er says:

      Chuck we’re now holding Gabbert of course, so IMO, Baalke nabs Logan Thomas or another project guy.
      Gabbert could be held of course, for at least a year as insurance.

      As for Shazier, he’s only 6’1″-ish and played both LB positions at Ohio St.
      Kid turned in a 42″ vert and a 4.38 at his Pro Day.
      Quite a freak IMO.
      I always lean toward Defense in a Draft toss up.

      Wouldn’t mind him if they went that way.
      For me, he’s an ILB with enough athleticism to consider at SS perhaps?

      • NJ49er says:

        My feeling about a WR in RD1 is, we don’t throw enough as it is.
        Sure, it provides another option but, Kaep isn’t a pocket passer yet anyway.

        Beckham makes sense because he could provide KR ability right away.
        Other guys can do that too, ala Jalen Saunders.

        My pocket rocket Dri Archer could probably help there too and, be obtained further down the Board.

        It’s all about Board movement and value at every Pick for me.
        If they feel Beckham is the guy, go for it, I’ll have to trust that they all agree if the card is turned in for him.
        I’ve watched him play many times, nothing wrong with what I’ve seen from him.

      • NJ49er says:

        The rumor mill is apperently making the NYJ nervous.
        Hearing that they covet Odell and might be looking to climb up higher to secure him before we do.

  24. NJ49er says:

    What typically occurs in the Draft Smokescreen banter is simply to get the order at the top jumbled.
    Make people panic a little and disrupt the expected order.
    All I want to see is Johnnie Football on the clock when Dallas Picks.

    Jerruh is feeling the temptation to make a marquee pick I’m sure.
    He’s all about the jersey sales.

    I think Clowney will disrupt it on his own if Houston passes.
    StL could easily sell off the 2 Pick for additonal ammo and still stay in the Top 10.
    Atlanta is always figuring they’re one guy away from striking it rich, ala Julio Jones.

    Quite the entertaining affair in RD1.
    Someone will blow it up.

  25. Spitblood says:

    I’ve got a fun game. Let’s pick the Trent Baalke first round curve ball. Jenkins was a surprise… and a reach. Aldon was a little-known prospect Baalke surprised everyone with. Last year was an easy, slam dunk – we needed a safety, we got a safety. And this year we need a corner, and we could get a corner in the first. However, like my boy, CB Stanley Jean Baptiste, there’s second round cornerback gold in ‘dem dar hills. If that’s the case, and Baalke’s confident he can grab some of dat ‘dem dar second and third round corner gold to supplement Brock, Culliver, Cox, Wright and How (Culliver, Cox, Wright and How – not the law firm, but the, “We need a law firm…. and How), Baalke then has a first round free hand and that’s a scary thing…. or a fun thing to try and predict.

    So that’s the game. Process of elimination to select the Baalke first round surprise. Here’s my take…

    Todd McShay has us going after another pass rusher in the first round, but that was while word was being leaked we wouldn’t exercise Aldon’s option. Cory Lemonier was awesome and didn’t get to play much last year. That’s wasted talent. I don’t think the 49ers can afford to stockpile more pass rushing talent if they’re going to stack it like cord wood behind Lemonier. Brooks and Lemonier can man the battle stations while Aldon is suspended with Dan Skuta backing them up. When Aldon comes back, there’s a ton of depth there. And I almost believe Lemonier was drafted just because Aldon’s not dependable. I think we have enough depth there with Aldon’s troubles not to go OLB in the first.

    If it’s me, I don’t use a first round pick on any offensive line position other than tackle, and we have two, maybe even three good ones on the team. Baalke won’t go O lineman in the first.

    QB? No chance. RB? The shelf life of a running back is too short to draft a running back in the first. We definitely need a running back to kick Frank to the curb and allow Lattimore to be a specialty back for a few years. As much as I believe a running back needs to be drafted in the later rounds, a first round 49er running back wouldn’t bum me out at all. In fact, I’d actually be pretty pumped because Harbaugh is addicted to Gore. It would be like having Del buy O’doules. Who wouldn’t love that? The blogosphere would be tickled pink. Harbaugh needs a 12 step Frank Gore Program. “My name’s Jim Harbaugh and I’m addicted to Gore.” “Hi Jim!!!!”

    TE? Vernon and Old McDonald? Nope. Enough talent there. On the offensive side of the ball, logically speaking, the only first round offensive pick we’re gonna get is a wide receiver and Baalke’s probably still having nightmares about Jenkins while seeing real draft value in Quinton Patton. Once bitten, twice shy…guy.

    So I’m thinking the first round surprise is going to be from the defensive side of the football.

    DE? I don’t think so. We have Cowboy in his final year. Tank to replace Cowboy. We have McDonald and Dial. I think we re-signed Dobbs. I know some are saying Dial’s a NT, but I think Dial’s more of a DE. I could certainly be wrong, but Dial doesn’t look like a NT in a 3/4 to me. He looks like a DT in 4/3 or a DE in a 3/4. Again, I could be wrong. But if I’m right, Baalke won’t go DE in the first even with Smith retiring.

    However, the one surprise pick Baalke could lay on us in the first round is a NT. The Seattle running backs were coming back to the sidelines in the NFC Championship game claiming our D line interior was “soft.” I agreed. In that game Lynch pounded and won. Gore got pounded. That was the game. I also thought Ian Williams was soft in the game he played in the beginning of the year. Dorsey was good, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Baalke go NT in the first.

    That only really leaves two other positions on the defensive side of the football Baalke could surprise us with in the first round – inside linebacker and safety.

    Even with Bowman’s gruesome injury, I don’t think Baalke’s going inside linebacker in the first. That would be a slap to Bowman’s rehabilitating face, AND I’m tellin’ ya’ll right now, Nick Moody is going to be an NFL stud…. maybe even an All Pro if he ever gets his chance. With Moody and Wilhoite on the roster, I’m sure Baalke will bring in more inside linebacker help for competition, but it won’t be in the form of a first rounder.

    Safety, however, could be a surprise first round Baalke pick, and like running back, I’d love to see Baalke go there. I think Pryor and Clinton-Dix are far superior athletes to Kyle Fuller. Antoine Bathea is ancient. He’s a leader, but his teeth are longer than Aldon’s rap sheet.

    So, the three Baalke first round surprises in order of most logical to biggest surprise are… drum roll, please…..

    1.) NT
    2.) Safety
    3.) Running Back

    All that said, I still think Baalke goes CB in the first round…. and trades up to do so.

    • NJ49er says:

      I have no problem with the Fat Man in the Middle either Spit.
      Question for me is, is Louis Nix the next coming of Haloti Ngata or Vince Wilfork?
      If so, take him.

      If not, get a difference maker, at whatever position they feel he can be had.

      • NJ49er says:

        I’m down for Calvin Pryor too.
        Only knock I’ve had on Ha-Ha is, his tackle production and, he’s more of a FS.
        Could we move Reid to SS? I’m not so sure he’s that durable.

        For me, a SS has to be a body rocker and have some coverage skills.
        Deone Bucannon fits, as does Pryor, maybe Jimmie Ward.

        We’ll find out soon enough.

      • NJ49er says:

        I like the guys that accrue a ton of tackles at the SS position.
        For that reason, Shazier intrigues me.
        Can’t argue with speed and tackle production.

  26. unca_chuck says:

    Nix sure hasn’t been linked with the Niners, but it could very well happen. He’s possible, possible at 17 . . . He could very well be gone as well. Thing is. they trade up they’ll get someone real good. Even if they don’t they still will. .

    The 3 guys I’d love to see on the team are ODB, Stanley Jean, and Logan Thomas . . .

    Spit, the national guys have it mostly wrong. . . .

    • NJ49er says:

      DT Aaron Donald is a menace.
      Small but feisty.
      I’d consider him a surprise option that no one is thinking about for us as a target.
      He’d be a nice answer to Justin, more of a DE in terms of size.

      Ryan Carrethers from AR St is another guy that looks interesting.
      6’1″ 337
      You’ll find him late.
      He’s not an immediate starter and would need time to develop.

      So many variables to consider. Hard to predict what Baalke has up his sleeve.

    • Spitblood says:

      I’m more than well aware. I was just using McShay to start the topic. So you’re a Stanley Jean fan, too? Kid’s got game. Definitely a great option in the second if we can’t get Fuller in the first…. and hell, even if we can. No harm in drafting Griffin and McKyer.

  27. NJ49er says:

    My concerns for Louis Nix is that he isn’t exceptionally strong and didn’t get a lot of tackle numbers.
    I think we could get value with an interior DT later down the Board.
    For me, an interior DT has to occupy blockers while keeping the LBs clean.

    Need a channel marker if he isn’t producing tackles.
    Someone you can’t rout out of the middle.
    Several guys fit that bill for me and wouldn’t cost much. Wait on them.

    Hageman is intriguing. He’s athletic and can carry more weight.
    Another concern with him is what’s between his ears.
    Is he dedicated enough?
    He’s certainly strong enough and, large enough to consider in RD1, if he’s got the stones to handle the interior responsibilities.

  28. NoFear49er says:

    Hey NJ49er, as for the SS candidates, can he line up over the TE and take him on, defeat his blocks, disrupt his release, cover and tackle him? Takes a pretty strong DB-type, tough and strong enough to go sixty minutes.

    Have you worked up a simulation of Baalke’s top 100? I can’t see him sit with all the ammo he has and watch 29 of them get taken away before he gets one. Who do you think he wants bad enough to trade up to get and what do you say he’s willing to give up for the move? I think we need to score a decent contributor in every round, as opposed to so many projects a la last year.

    • NJ49er says:

      I agree NoFear49er.
      Shazier seems to have those characteristics from everything I’ve researched.
      Plays the slot fairly well and defended TEs.
      That’s the reason I’d be curious to see if he can be a Chancellor-type enforcer as a SS.

      I’m with you regarding a move up.
      Can I get into Baalkes’ head? I did last year with Reid.
      If he’s shopping for a DB this time around I’d be OK with it.

      If he goes up the Board in RD1 again tomorrow I wouldn’t be surprised.
      Calvin Pryor makes sense to me there.
      CB Kyle Fuller too.
      I wouldn’t eliminate a WR, though I’m not big on risking much on that position.
      Too often they flame out, ala AJ.

      One thing I’ve learned from doing this stuff with my Son for 25 years, it’s damn near impossible to predict specific players in each slot for me.
      I stick to stacking a Board with guys I think would fit at every position I expect the GM to be shopping in.

      This year, I’m going heavier with DBs and WRs.
      My gut says we could be grabbing a pair of each.

      • NJ49er says:

        Here’s this years’ attempt at what I think might happen –

        DBs –
        Kyle Fuller (CB) – VA Tech (Trade up option Only)
        Jaylen Watkins (CB) – UF
        Jason Verrett (CB) – TCU (Good speed but small)
        EJ Gaines (CB) – MO
        Phillip Gaines (CB) – Rice
        Shaquille Richardson (CB) – AZ
        Pierre Desir (CB) – Lindenwood
        Walt Aikens (CB) – Liberty

        Take a chance?
        Aaron Colvin (CB) – OK (Injury Redshirt ala Tank/Marcus/Dial)

        FS – Posted
        Calvin Pryor (FS) – Louisville (Likely won’t see him without Trading up)
        Dontae Johnson (FS) – NC St
        Marqueston Huff (CB) – WY
        Ty Zimmerman (FS) – KS

        SS – Posted
        Deone Bucannon (SS) – WA State
        Jimmie Ward (SS) – No IL
        Eric Pinkins – (SS) – SDSU
        Tre Boston (FS) – UNC

      • NJ49er says:

        WRs –

        Jordan Matthews – Vandy
        Donte Moncrief – MS
        Odell Beckham Jr – LSU (Wish but miss)
        Paul Richardson – CO
        Marqise Lee – USC (Injury concerns?)
        Davante Adams – Fresno St.
        Allen Robinson – PSU
        Brandon Coleman – Rutgers (TE option?)

        Slot WRs –

        Brandin Cooks – OR St – (Slot) (Wish but miss)
        Tevin Reese – Baylor (Slot)
        Chandler Jones – SJSU (Slot)
        Jalen Saunders – OK (Slot-KR)
        Bruce Ellington – SCAR – (Slot-KR) Odell-light

      • NJ49er says:

        TE –
        Larry Webster – Bloomsburg (Convert from DE)
        Marcel Jensen – Fresno St
        Crockett Gillmore – CO St.

        ILB –
        Kevin Pierre-Lewis (OLB) – BC
        Ryan Shazier (OLB) – Ohio State
        Preston Brown – Louisville

        DT –
        Ra’Shede Hageman – MN
        Jay Bromley – Syracuse
        Zach Kerr – Delaware
        Justin Ellis – (NT) – LA Tech

        OLB –
        Trent Murphy – (OLB) – Stanford
        Kyle Van Noy (OLB) – BYU
        Jackson Jeffcoat (DE) – TX
        Chris Smith – (DE) – Arkansas

        DE –
        Kareem Martin – UNC
        Howard Jones – (OLB) – Shepherd
        Stephon Tuitt – ND
        Demarcus Lawrence – Boise St.
        Jake Metz – Shippensburg

        C –
        Corey Linsley – Ohio State
        Marcus Martin – USC
        Russell Bodine – UNC
        Travis Swanson – Arkansas

        OT –
        Antonio Richardson – TN
        Jack Mewhort – Ohio State
        Cameron Fleming – Stanford
        Justin Britt – MO

        OG –
        Gabe Jackson – MS St
        David Yankey – Stanford
        Cyril Richardson – Baylor
        Spencer Long – NE

        RB –
        Damien Williams – OK
        Charles Sims – WVU
        Bishop Sankey – WA

        FB –
        Lorenzo Taliaferro – Coastal Carolina
        J.C. Copeland – LSU
        Trey Millard – OK

        QB
        Logan Thomas – VA Tech
        Jimmy Garoppolo – E. IL
        David Fales – San Jose St

      • NJ49er says:

        Small School – Late RD/UDFA –

        Dri Archer – Kent St (PR/KR/WR/RB) All around Joker –
        Jerick McKinnon – (RB) GA Southern
        Terrance West – (RB) – Towson
        Mo Alexander – (SS) – Utah St
        LJ McCray – (FS/SS) – Catawba
        Kendall James – (CB) – Maine
        Sammy Seamster (CB) – Middle TN St
        Josh Walker – (OG) – Middle TN St
        Matt Feiler – (OG/OT) – Bloomsburg
        Jeff Janis – (WR) – Saginaw Valley St
        John Brown – (WR) – Pitt St
        Albert Wilson – (WR) – GA State
        Willie Gibson – (WR) – Cumberlands
        Jordie Tripp – (OLB) – Montana
        Ryan Carrethers (DT) – Arkansas St

  29. NJ49er says:

    Here’s a little write-up on DT Ryan Carrethers –

    Big and thick with outstanding weight-room strength — maintains low body fat, squats a small house and bench-pressed 225 pounds 32 times at the combine. Has sheer mass and natural girth to dig in and hold his ground vs. double teams. Has a wrestling background and understands leverage. Has two-gap ability. Heavy tackler. Nice effort for a big man. Tough and durable. Solid personal and football character — is devoted to his craft and has a professional approach to the game.

    He could an interesting option late?

  30. NJ49er says:

    The only reason I didn’t put Aaron Donald on my list is, I expect him to be gone, because I figure Dallas should snag him, at the very latest with Pick 16.
    That’s the reason I’d love to see Johnnie Football there when Jerruh makes the decision.

    If he’s there at 17, the rumored deal with Baltimore could make him an option.
    To Spit’s point, he’d be a surprise no one would be expecting.

  31. NoFear49er says:

    Damn!, NJ49er, that’s a heap of work. I take it these are the NJ49er’s top rated prospects, how do you think your number 1’s by position stack up as far as who’s the most to least valuable to the Niners, or which are the game changers among them?

  32. Nipper says:

    HARK! THE DRAFT!

  33. unca_chuck says:

    Wow. You really do get into this, NJ. How old is your son? My son has been watching all this draft coverage for weeks now. I’m frankly getting a little tired of it. That being said, I can’t wait to see what happens. I’vew avoided ESPN like the plague so i don’t have to see Mel Kiper and his bulletproof hair.

    I’m of a mind that we definitely trade up. Balt is the likliest case as well. Brrrother John will hedge his bet with Rice and take LMJ off our hands. I just hope we don’t lose too much pick-wise to get to 17.

  34. Spitblood says:

    3 draft day no -no’s for Baalke that will result in a temper tantrum of immense proportions by me if they happen. I’ll either shit my pants in protest, burn down a city or kick people in the nuts in protest.

    #1.) Drafting a small receiver. If we go with Brandon Cooks or Archer, they’ll be hell to pay.
    #2.) Pull a Jerry Jones and trade out of the first round. If anything, we need more first rounders, not less. Our time is now.
    3.) Draft someone who fits the following category – speed freak, combine warrior, or one year college wonder (Balmer). If Baalke avoids these things, I won’t burn down SF.

  35. 3 Draft Day no-no’s for Baalke that will result in a temper tantrum of immense proportions by me if they happen. I’ll either go shit in my neighbor’s pants (I just did laundry today. Not wasting all my time and effort.), use a chemical pathogen which leads to a city-wide pandemic (I don’t play with fire) or punch people in the goddamn throat (I respect the privates. You down wit’ OPP?) in protest.

    1. Drafting a WR in the first round.
    2. Trading up and drafting a WR in the first round.
    3. Using our first two picks on a WR.

    Pretty much any combination of “WR” and the word “first,” and it’s DEFCON 2.

    Speaking of 2, best pray the Rams don’t take Johnny Football with their second overall pick. Johnny will be kicking our ass for the next 10 years. I think they just might. He won’t be there at 13, and they have to know Bradford isn’t the answer. It wouldn’t be a complete shocker to see Manziel wearing horns.

  36. unca_chuck says:

    I ain’t sold on Johnny Football by any means, but I’m with NJ. If he goes to Dallas I’ll laugh all the way to the corner bar.

  37. unca_chuck says:

    You said the same thing about Colt McCoy, Dennis.

  38. Mayock’s mock had Johnny going to Dallas at 16. No way in hell he lasts to 16.

  39. Johnny draft position: UNDER 5.5 (-160) OVER 5.5 (+120)
    Lay the 8/5 on the UNDER.

  40. Spitblood says:

    I could see Manziel falling like Aaron Rogers. He won’t, though, because owners are like moneys…. “Oh look shiny stuff.” If he can get past the owners who want to make a quick buck and put butts in the seats and it’s more up to the talent evaluators, Manziel will slide. If an owner like Daniel Snyder falls in love with him like Snyder has down with RG2.5, all bets are off. Manziel’s a bust.

  41. Spitblood says:

    This is BS. My POTD stayed up there for about two minutes. I’m filing a protest. My people want answers. I want answers. And I want the truth. Grumpy’s POTD was up there since the German’s bombed Pearl Harbor. Mine had the shelf life of Mike Singletary credibility. This is an outrage. My people won’t take this laying down.

  42. unca_chuck says:

    Betting on the draft is about 3 steps below betting on college basketball.

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