Forty Niners Forever

No, the 49ers aren’t part of the charter members of the NFL, but their history does go back to 1950 with the dissolution of the All American Football Conference and the absorption of the Niners, the Browns, and the Colts into the NFL fold. So, we’ve played the Green Bay Packers 68 times, amassing a 31-36-1 record. Our playoff record is 3-4 as well, but most of the Niner wins haven been recent, as in two of Colin Kaepernick’s playoff wins in 2012 and 2013. 2013 being pretty epic as Kaepernick threw for 263 and rushed for 181, with Frank Gore adding 113 himself in the 41-35 beatdown. I don’t want to mention the 1990s, as those playoff losses were brutal.

Because, of course the recent matchup was as good a game as this very good team has played. Amid the talk all season of the 49ers not playing anyone of substance, the 8-2 Packers took on the 9-1 Niners. And ot was an absolute dismantling of the Packers. 37-8. A game that saw the dominant Niners put up a 23 point 1st half lead. One we didn’t squander like the Houstons did last weekend. It was Aaron Rodgers’ worst passing day as a pro. The Niner defense stuffed the run, stopped the pass, and hassled Rodgers every time he dropped back to pass. Jimmy G had an efficient 14-20/243 2 TD mistake free game. Frankly, I don’t see much in the way of things being much different this time around.

Our run defense has been stout, and the return of Kwon Alexander, Jaquiski Tartt, and Dee Ford put us back in our position as the fastest and most lethal defense in the NFL. I think for now the Ahkello Witherspoon experience is on the shelf for another game as Emmanuel Moseley has proven he’s equal to the task. Witherspoon is a mercurial talent, but he’s been off since his injury earlier this year.

Stop Adams and Jones, and the game is done. Adams had 7 catches for 43 yards, and Jones had 13 carries for 38 yards. Everything Rodgers threw was underneath as he had little time to wait for plays to develop, and he was sacked 5 times.

Funny, at the start of the playoffs I was worried about the Seahawks, the Saints, and the Ravens., and the Chiefs. Three out of four are gone. Thanks to a fast start, and Seattle running out of time, we have the Green Bay Packers traveling west to face us in the NFC Championship game. Yes, a team we faltered against way back in 1995, 1996, and 1997.

Trust me, I saw 1997 NFC Championship game loss, and the 1996 divisional loss. Both were rainy miserable games and we were sitting on the pull-out side. Meaning sitting in the rain all day. They even knocked us out of the 2001 playoffs. Next year of course was Jeff Garcia’s furious comeback in the WC game against the NY Giants only to lose to the Pack again.

Recent history is much kinder. We stomped them silly in week 11 here at Levi’s 37 – 8. In 2011 and 2012, the Niners stomped the Packers to advance in the playoffs. Revenge then was a nice dish, but it was cold as we didn’t finish the deal.

Nex Sunday? I think the 49ers can run at will on these guys. Green Bay was 23rd in yards given up running. Stop Davante Adams and you stop Green Bay.

So, a lot of history to sift through, but like we showed against Minnesota, history don’t mean shit.

Sunday, Jan. 19
AFC Championship 
Titans at Chiefs, 12:05 p.m. ET (CBS, stream on CBS All Access here)

NFC Championship
Packers at 49ers, 3:40 p.m. ET (Fox, stream on fuboTV here)

Very good to see the defense come together right as the playoffs rolled around. To a man, everyone said the bye week was crucial. One play. Gigantic implications. Dre Greenlaw would be the hero of the year for his stoning of Hollister 6″ short of the goal line, and he will never buy a drink in the Bay Area forever.

Meanwhile, the return of Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander saw the resurgence of the vaunted pass rush that stymied so many teams early this season. Ford’s stat line was 1 sack and 1 TFL, but his presence allowed Bosa to run free for 6 tackles and 2 sacks. Everyone on the D line, including recent acquisition Tony Zettel, got sack. Kwon Alexander didn’t even get on the stat line, but just having his speed out there caused Minnesota problems.

The name of the ore-game story was stopping Dalvin Cook to slow the play-action passing game. Well, 9 carries for 18 yards is pretty suffocating.

The offense started guns blazing. On an 8 play, 61 yard drive, Jimmy G threw 6 times, ending with a 3 yard strike to Kendrick Bourne. The rest was a series of 7 yard runs by Tevin Coleman. To the tune of 22 carries, 105 yards. Speaking of Kendrick, Eddie Kendricks provided the only bright spot for Minnesota as he picked off an ill-advised Jimmy G pass late in the 2nd quarter. It turned into a measly 3 points, and ther 49ers never looked back.

Today, we have the improbable Houstons against the venerable Chiefs. With the path cleared by the Tennessee Tuxedos for the Chiefs, I see walk-through for KC. I’ll keep my earlier prediction of 35-20 KC.

After yesterday’s outlandish stomping of the Ravens by the Titans, I’m going with Green Bay to beast Seattle handily, 28-17 (read the Post of the Day!).

Sunday, January 12, 2020

No. 4 Texans at No. 2 Chiefs, 12:05 p.m. PT (CBS, stream on CBS All Access here)
No. 5 Seahawks at No. 2 Packers, 3:40 p.m. PT (Fox, stream on fuboTV here)

Here we are on the brink of another wild weekend of football. This means so much more now that we are back in the playoffs after a 5 year absence. Here’s the schedule:

Saturday, Jan. 11
No. 6 Vikings at No. 1 49ers, 1:35 p.m. PT (NBC, stream on fuboTV here)
No. 6 Titans at No. 1 Ravens, 5:15 p.m. ET (CBS, stream on CBS All Access here)

Sunday, Jan. 12
No. 4 Texans at No. 2 Chiefs, 12:05 p.m. PT (CBS, stream on CBS All Access here)
No. 5 Seahawks at No. 2 Packers, 3:40 p.m. PT (Fox, stream on fuboTV here)

Minnesota gets the shortest end of the stick as they played last Sunday, have only 5 days to get ready, and they fly west to kill most of a day. They also have the disadvantage of being a dome team playing outside. Minn was 4-4 on the road, but all 4 losses came outdoors. They beat the Giants, Deetroit, Dallas, and the Chargers. 2 outdoor teams (NYG, Bolts) with a combined record of 9-23. So, there’s that.

The rest? We’ll see. Seattle I think is the class of the rest of the NFC. Maybe it’s just the way we kicked their ass, but I don’t see them taking Seattle. Rodgers looks skittish when pressure, and they can go south in a hurry. Hawks 24 – GB 17.

Ravens and Chiefs should roll. Balt 31 – Tenn 14 . . . . . . . . Chiefs 35 – Texans 20.

I think most of us were happy to see the Minnesota Vikings improbably go to New Orleans and kill the Saints Super Bowl dreams yet again. Two years ago there was the improbable catch and run on the last play of the game that thwarted the Saints Super Bowl march. Then there was the non-call on a blatant pass interference late in the Rams game that ended their comeback.

This last game? Well, Brees had two huge turnovers in the 2nd half to kill drives, and the Vikes did just enough to take the lead late and hold on to force NO to kick a field goal and go to overtime. NO had their chances, yet squandered them. Minn pressured Brees all day and had 7 hits, 3 sacks, and one strip sack.

The 49ers? Well, we had the luxury of having the week of to heal up. Dee Ford and Jaquiski Tartt are ready to go, and the possibility exists that Kwon Alexander will be ready. He is on the same fast track that JJ Watt went on to play last week and propel Houston to a win over the Bills.

Certainly good news. Thing is though, Minnesota brings a lot of pressure, and the Niners haven’t been very good lately at pass protection. Jimmy G has weathered the storms very well these last few weeks, but it sure would be nice to try and establish the run to set up play-action. Minnesota’s defense gives up a lot of yards, but their turnover numbers and sack numbers line up with ours pretty well. They do a good job in the red zone.

Their offense is pretty much the same. Nothing spectacular across the board but they run and pass efficiently. Dalvin Cook had a solid 1,230 yards rushing, and Stefon Diggs had an equally solid 1,135 yards receiving. The Saints shut him down, but Adam Thielen took up the slack against the Saints, and they have a tough TE of their own in Kyle Rudolph.

Even Kirk Cousins, the almost-49er, had a solid season. His rating of 107 is 4th in the league, and he doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. He didn’t light up the league in yards, but neither did a lot of other playoff QBs. Of the top 10 QBs in yards per game, only Mahomes and Brees (7th and 8th respectively) made the playoffs.

So, what does all this mean? Well, those of us who have been around a while surely remember when the 1987 49ers cruised through the regular season at 13-2 only to get annihilated by the 8-7 Vikings in the opening round of the playoffs. A crushing defeat that had reverberations for quite some time as it drove an unmendable wedge between Eddie D and Bill Walsh to the point where Walsh had to be talked back into coaching by Eddie and his players. Walsh didn’t want to end his run on that note, and came up with his best coaching year in 1988 when the Niners staggered down the stretch, but won 7 of 8 games to win the West, and eventually the Super Bowl.

Overconfidence should not be a factor, and the 49ers shouldn’t be looking forward to the possible Seahawks rematch as that game won’t be decided till Sunday, and everywhere you look, you see references to the 1987 Minnesota playoff game.

I hope Kyle is making the team aware of that game, and its ramifications.

AFC:

No. 5 Bills at No. 4 Texans, 1:35 p.m. PT (ESPN/ABC/WatchESPN)
No. 6 Titans at No. 3 Patriots, 5:15 p.m. PT (CBS stream on CBS All Access here)

And the NFC is:

No. 6 Vikings at No. 3 Saints, 10:05 a.m. PT (Fox, stream on fuboTV here)
No. 5 Seahawks at No. 4 Eagles, 1:40 p.m. PT (NBC, stream on fuboTV here)

Buffalo over Hou 20-13

NE over Tenn 26-20

Hawks over Iggles 28-24

NO over the Vikes 42-23

Got to say it has been a very successful run for the Bay Area teams. The Giants win 3 in 5, and Warriors win 3 in 5 for a total of 6 championships in 9 years. Throw in a 3 year playoff (and one unsuccessful Super Bowl) run by the Niners and you have a very solid claim as the sports mecca of champions in the 2010s. Boston is right there with three Super Bowls, two World Series wins, and one Stanley Cup in 2011, but fuck hockey. We win.

Speaking of Super Bowls, the 49ers could very well end the decade with a Super Bowl win of their own. A nice cap to solid decade of Bay Area dominance. Just don’t ask the Raiders or the A’s.

Anyhow, the upcoming wildcard weekend is especially gratifying, as we don’t have to play a down. But there are some great games on tap as this field of playoff teams is one of the strongest in a while. The upcoming games this weekend feature the AFC on Saturday:

No. 5 Bills at No. 4 Texans, 1:35 p.m. PT (ESPN/ABC/WatchESPN)
No. 6 Titans at No. 3 Patriots, 5:15 p.m. PT (CBS stream on CBS All Access here)

And the NFC is:

No. 6 Vikings at No. 3 Saints, 10:05 a.m. PT (Fox, stream on fuboTV here)
No. 5 Seahawks at No. 4 Eagles, 1:40 p.m. PT (NBC, stream on fuboTV here)

Shockingly, the Patriots fell out of the bye week with a desultory loss to the resurgent (hah!) Miami Dolphins to close the season out on a dour note. They are decent, but not the offensive juggernaut they appeared to be at the start of the season. They handed the week off to the KC Chiefs. The Titans are a hot and cold mess, but with NE playing at home they likely eke this one out. NE wins 26-20

Bills at Texans? This should be fun, if only to get a glimpse of Frank Gore. He hasn’t gotten a ton of touches lately, but he’s still playing well. 600 yards this year in a backup role. Buffalo wins 20-13

Saturday of course will be the game that affects our next opponent. More than likely the Seahawks. Seattle plays well on the road, and Philly has had a season ravaged by injuries but they have been playing well down the stretch as they were do-or-die most these last 4 wins in a row. Hawks 28-24

Vikings-Saint? Just as the Saints fans about their playoff game 2 years ago. Ooops. The Saints have been fucked out of advancing to the Super Bowl 2 years in a row, and I’d be hard-pressed to see them lose at home. Should be a barn-burner. Something like our game with them. NO wins 42-33.

Don’t know what the ratings were, but game 256 of the 2019 season was pretty fucking exciting and nerve -wracking. After cruising to a 13-0 halftime lead, the Seahawks suddenly couldn’t be stopped. I think Seattle converted every 3rd down play in the 2nd half. That is, until that fateful play and the fateful goal line stop by # 57 of the 49ers, linebacker Dan Bunz, uh, Dre Greenlaw, and the 49er win the Super Bowl, uh, NFC West with a 26-21 victory over the Seahawks.

You can’t make this shit up in its symmetry. 3rd year in, Walsh wins the West (and the Super Bowl) with a 13-3 record. 3rd year in, Shanny wins the West with a 13-3 record, and suddenly we are favorites, at least in the NFC, to win the Super Bowl.  I really thought the refs would kill us after the misguided personal foul on Ben Garland for blocking downfield. But Seattle got their ref-bitch with a non-PI call on the 2nd to last play in the end zone.

It was a well-called game to that point, but needless to say, nerves were frayed by then. Just like the last 5 games, it came down to the last play of the game. Unlike the Atlanta game, however, Jacob Hollister, Seattle’s 4th string TE, came up 2″ short after a monumental game-saving hit by Dre Greenlaw, with an assist by Fred Warner, that kept him out of the end zone.

Very thankful for the bye week, and we came out of this game relatively unscathed. Well, except for the benching of Ahkello Witherspoon. He had another game where he was a hair late on a lot of plays. He has been a mixed bag since his return from his foot injury, and the defensive backfield in general had an uneven 2nd half.

Got to hope against hope we at least get Ford back, if not Alexander.

Hell of a season folks! Been a lot of fun, but I sure prefer the early-season stompings to these nail-biting ulcer games! I had us at 10-6 and a WC. Never did I think we would be #1 in the NFC.

We all know the track record, we all know the frustration, we all know the ramifications of this game. To add to all that, Seattle is banged up and they have been fairly inconsistent, and have won a lot of close games. We of course are beat up on out D line and have been fairly inconsistent ourselves.

I have no idea how this game goes, but what we REALLY need to be aware of is misdirection plays, rollouts, and screens. Starting with Lamar Jackson, we have been getting burned relentlessly by our DEs not setting the edge and staying in their assigned lanes. They crash the middle on fakes and leave the edges wide open for rollouts, scrambles, and screens. I mean, fuck, Matt Ryan and Jared Goff faked us out on plays like that.

Russell Wilson will eat us alive if we don’t stay at home. This is my biggest worry tonight. If we don’t defend well, we can’t win. Not up there. Again, this game will be won by protecting Jimmy and pressuring RW.

Yet another gigantic game looms large in this improbable season of redemption for the 49ers. After the scorching hot start, however, the injuries have mounted, and the defense has not been the dominant force it was earlier in the season. Injuries to our interior line, DJ Jones, and Ronald Blair, have allowed opponent run games to do much better. Injuries to outside guys Kwon Alexander and Dee Ford have slowed the dominating pass rush significantly. From 1st in the league down to 30th in the past 3 games.

And this is the rub. A dominating defense can allow for mistakes by the offense. A good defense can maybe get away with one or two, but no more. We are at the breaking point. One mistake killed our chances against Atlanta, and nearly derailed the Rams game.

Seattle is as opportunistic a team as exists in the NFL. We cannot afford ANY mistakes. Yeah, they lost to AZ. Yes their line is makeshift and wildly inconsistent. Yes, they’ve lost a ton of impact players. Yes, they’ve dodged a LOT of bullets this season. Yet here they are poised to take the NFC West from our grasp.

Seattle is our nemesis. Our Kryptonite. Our hurdle to overcome to reach the promised land. Win this game, and we will be the prohibitive favorites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, if not be the favorites to win it all. Lose this game, and the road all of a sudden becomes 3 road playoff games. A tough row to hoe, and yes, one that has been done before, but given our injuries would be insurmountable.

I’d love to think we can pull this off, but this team NEEDS to generate a pass rush. Atlanta and LA both have shitty lines,and we did very little. Sure, we got pressure, but Ryan and Goff are both statues,and they were able to roll out and get clear passing lanes at will.

And, for fuck’s sake, STOP biting on the fakes. We have left the edge so empty of defenders so many times, it kills me. Goff must have rolled out 5 times and had no one within 15 yards of him. We looked like last year’s defense, giving up 15 yards per screen play. On our designed rollouts, we usually left a DE free to crush Jimmy G.

I’d love to see us with this game, and I hate to say it, but I don’t see it. Fat Bastard notwithstanding. The only way we win this game is in a shootout. And winning shootouts in Seattle is a monumental task.