San Francisco 49ers Forever

The incredible season of the San Fransicso 49ers just got more incredible. Green Bay is about to fall to the New York football Giants, and they will be travelling to San Francisco to take on the resurgent 49ers for the right to represent the NFC in Super Bowl XLVI. After posting a 1-3 record in the wildcard round, I hit them all this weekend.

Funny thng is, I had scheduled a Christmas party for the family, late in November (we all couldn’t get together until yesterday) not knowing anything about the playoff schedule. So it just coincidentally worked out to be the Niners shining moment in the sun. So I had a housefull of screaming yelling, and in the end, happy as hell fans. I can go on and on about the game, the redemption for Alex Smith, the unvarnished support Smith has gotten from VD throughout his career, and the support from the other players on the team who have stuck with Smith through the good, the bad, and the injuries. That Smith wanted to stick around, through all the trashing by coaches, the lukewarm support from the front office, and the outright hatred of a lot of the fan base tells you something about the kind of man that is Alex.

So, here we go. On to the NFC Championship game. The Giants are coming back here hot as hell, but Green Bay looked a little shell shocked due to the tragedy that befell Packers assistant coach Joe Philbin. As it is, the Niners need to beat a team they beat in week 10, 27-20 on the late batted pass by Justin Smith. I would love to take my son, but tix are already upwards of $350 for crap seats. We’ll see. If I can get it under $500 for 2, I just might do it. I have a couple tenuous leads that I’ll follow up on. Anyhow, either way, WOO HOOOO!!!!!  One win from the Super Bowl!!!

Here we are, poised on the biggest game around these parts in 9+ years, and the comparisons to the 1981 team are a bit eerie. Beyond the fact the Niners are playing in the same dump of a stadium while some other teams have gone through 2 stadiums (hello Detroit) in that time frame is only the beginning. Starting with the owner, you have in Jed York a similar figure to you Eddie DeBartolo. Both are young upstarts who didn’t bring a hell of a lot of experience other than being the son of a very wealthy dad. Eddie got the Niners because his father was not allowed to own a hockey team and a football team at the same time. Jed got the Niners from his dad because Dr. John was an inept buffoon who charged the team for every bottle of water they drank, dismantled one of the greatest dynasties in sports, and let the stadium bond that Eddie fought so hard to get die on the vine.

The 1980 Niners posted a 6-10 record amidst guarded hope that the team was at least heading in the right direction under Bill Walsh. The 2010 Niners posted a 6-10 record amidst the crumbling regime of one Aluminum Mike Singletary. Walsh came in as an offensive wizard who made his bobnes under legendary Paul Brown. Harbaugh came in as an overachieving quarterback who willed his teams to improbable victories, and as a coach is being heralded as an offensive visionary who has done well in developing quarterbacks like Josh Johnson, Andrew Luck, and now Alex Smith. The 1981 season, very much like the 2011 season, started with a lot of questions, and a bit of hope. The 1981 draft provided the 49ers with a brand-new defensive backfield (minus Dwight Hicks). The 2011 draft provided the 49ers with a bunch of depth at important positions (RB, CB, O line), a starting FB, and a pre-eminent pass rusher. A huge key to the success of both teams.

Both teams started their seasons tentatively. The 1981 Niners lost to Detroit and Atlanta to post a 1-2 record out of the gate. At that point in the season, it was like, well, they could go 8-8. Wait til next year. This year’s Niners won a fairly pedestrian game against Seattle, and lost a close one at home to Dallas. At the time, I thought, well, we’ll be 8-8, but it might win the division. Let’s just keep seeing incrememtal improvement, and wait til next year.

The 1981 Niners then reeled off 7 straight wins. Along the way, beating powerhouses like Washington, Dallas, and Pittsburgh. The 2011 Niners did them one better and won 8 straight, beating playoff teams like Cincy, Detroit, and the NYFGs. Both teams finished strong to end the year at 13-3 and vastly exceeded the expectations of a hungry fan base. This team is playing with a highly rated defense and an underrated offense. The 1981 Niners were a highly rated offense with an underrated defense.

In 1981, the 49ers were the surprise #1 seed. This year, the surprise #2 seed. Forget Tim Tebow, tomorrow will be the next step to see if this truly is a magical season (and yes, even with a loss tomorrow, the season was an unmitigated success) for the 49ers that leads them and their fans to Super Bowl XLVI.

Funny, the closer we get to this game, the more the pundits are turning against the 49ers. What started out a weeek and a half ago as a solid match up between the best offense in the NFC and the best defense in the NFC has now devolved into a Drew Brees love-fest. “No one can stop him” “The Saints are on fire.” Sproules will gash them since the Niner D has to respect the pass” on and on and on. Horeshit, mainly, but that’s the perception out there. The thing is, as Flav alluded to, Norleans had a pretty easy schedule. Especially on the road. Of their road games, only GB and Atl had winning records. FWIW, NO’s strength of schedule index was -1.6. The Niners were -1.1. That tells me a lot. Well, not really, but the Niners won some tough road games, Philly, Cincy, Detroit, and Seattle being the tough ones. They both beat 2 playoff teams on the road, and they both took care of business at home.

The thing that gives me hope is that the Niners have played similar teams to NO. Mainly Detroit. A team that is fast and stout defensively. For all the gaudy numbers by NO last week, Detroit closed NO’s lead to 24-21 into the 4th quarter. Detroit pressed and flailed in the end, and NO got some garbage time points, but the point remains that Detroit wasn’t out of this game til the end. And the fact is, NO hasn’t played a defense near the strength of the Niners. The Niners as we all know are #1 against the run. The Niners have knocked out 5 or 6 starting RBs this year. They hit hard, and teams get tired of beating their heads against that wall. The Niners give up passing yards, but do not give up long TDs. I other words, the Niners DON’T have to alter their normal defensive strategy too much to play the Saints. Stop the run, force the pass, defend the deep balls.

NO is very adept and the underneath stuff, and this is where I’m hopeful that Patrick Willis is fully recovered. He drops into coverage a lot, and he’ll be covering Jimmy Graham. He of the 99 catches and 1310 yards. A tough assignment. He and Marcus Colston offer a pretty tough set of pass-catchers to defend against.  They can go underneath to him, or over the top with Colston. As usual, a lot of the success of the Niners falls on the front 7 and how much pressure they can get on Drew Brees. I’m sure the Niners will come out and rush 4 from the start. Mainly to see if they can cause enough havoc with their base defense. Given my druthers, I’d think about getting Aldon Smith more reps on 2nd down. try to force matchup problems on 2nd and long plays.

In the end, this game is reminding me more and more of Super Bowl XXIX. Miami came in as the darling offensive juggernaut that was supposed to steamroll everything in its path. The Niners, who practice against a vastly superior defense (then and now), stopped them by the 2nd quarter and coasted to victory. Hey, it could happen . . .

How could I miss this? It’s halfway through the first quarter if you get the NFL Network. Rafael Septien just kicked a 45 yard FG to make the score 7-3. Freddie Solomon scored a TD earlier in the 1st quarter.

Wasn’t there. I know Dennis was. Anyone else out there?

Well, I was 1-3 for my prognostications. Sure glad I didn’t bet any real money. No one got all of ’em right, because no one picked Denver. Not even Dennis.

God knows how I hate to feed into the frenzy but did anyone notice that Timmy “halleluia” Tebow threw for 316 yards yesterday? For an average of 31.6 yars per completion? Twilight Zone shit, folks. I’m sure if Tebow wins the Super Bowl in February, he’ll rise up from the field to the right hand of God, saying “I’m not going to Disneyland, I’m going to Heaven!!” Thus cheapening all religion, and specifically Christianity, as merely a hocus pocus magic show  based on hucksterism at it’s finest.

Either that, or Tom “ol’ devil breath” Brady throws for 666 yards, beats Tebow, and thusly the ground opens up to swallow him after the game.

As far as the games coming up are concerned, we’ll get to that later. It looks like I’m a glutton for punishment as the folks around here REALLY want to get into some sort of religious debate. Have at it. God know why I do this. It is getting beyond weird lately. I almost miss V’s regurgitated Eddie, Bill, and Joe rants. . .

Or some shit like that. Gimme your guesses, and the winner gets a dream date, with kneepads, with Paul Williams. And a baby’s arm holding an apple. 2nd place is a weekend at Dennis’s. 3rd place is a week there.

I know there aren’t too many different options here, but hey, this looks like a great set of games for once. And, I tell ya one thing, it sure is a hell of a lot more fun having the Niners actually involved in the playoffs than watching them for strictly betting purposes. With a bye no less . . .

If you want to read my detailed breakdown of how I think the playoffs go (sure you do), just click the previous thread. I’ve gotten 3 predictions so far. Here’s the schedule of games:

Saturday, Jan. 7th
6.Bengals (9-7) vs. 3.Texans (10-6), 1:30 pm NBC
6.Lions (10-6) vs. 3.Saints (13-3), 5:00 pm NBC
Sunday, Jan. 8th
5.Falcons (10-6) vs. 4.Giants (9-7), 10:00 am FOX
5.Steelers (12-4) vs. 4.Broncos (8-8), 1:30 pm CBS

All times are Pacific Standard times. I have no idea when these games start in the Philippines.

While the 49ers are healing up and preparing for their umcoming opponent, there will be 8 teams fighting for their collective lives. This looks to be a pretty good bunch of games. They are :

Saturday, Jan. 7th
6.Bengals(9-7) vs. 3.Texans (10-6), 4:30 pm NBC
6.Lions (10-6) vs. 3.Saints (13-3), 8 pm NBC
Sunday, Jan. 8th
5.Falcons (10-6) vs. 4.Giants (9-7), 1 pm FOX
5.Steelers (12-4) vs. 4.Broncos (8-8), 4:30 pm CBS

All these games have pretty cool story lines. Saturday gives us the Bengals vs the Houstons. The Bengals, left for dead in March, with the Carson Palmer holdout, and the general turmoil (OchoCinco, TJ Houshmanzadah, drug busts, jail time, etc) that usually surrounds that team, came together under rookie QB Andy Dalton (3400 yards), and rookie wideout AJ Green (1,054 yards) to be one of 3 AFC North teams to reach the playoffs. They play the Houston Texans. A team making it’s first visit to the playoffs. They had a magical seaosn underway until they were decimated by injuries. Especially at the QB position. Matt Schaub got hurt in the TB game, Hot Tub Matt Leinart got hurt the next week in the Jacksonville game, and TJ Yates was injured vs Tennessee in week 16. Which led to ancient Jake Delhomme to play their last game. Cincy lost to Houston in week 14 but won 2 of 3 after that. Houston closed out the season with 3 straight losses after that win over Cincy.

Houston is banged up too badly, even if Yates comes back to start this game. Cincy wins 27-17. An upset that really isn’t.

The other Saturday game should be a real barn-burner. The Lions and Saints can both score anywhere on the field at any time. Both teams play on carpet, so this should be a high scoring affair. If last weeks’ game showed anything, it’s that Detroit can score on the road oni the real stuff, putting 41 up in GB in a losing effort. but that’s a later concern. We all know about Brees and Stafford having big seasons. The rub is, NO has not lost at home all year. NO beat Detroit pretty handily 31-17, but that was the game the Ndomakong Suh was suspended for his Indian burn arm stomp. Detroit should feel pretty good about themselves though, at least offensively. On the defensive side? Well, hard to say. NO is 29th in pass defense, but they blitz a lot. They could rattle/hurt Stafford. Detroit has Suh and Fairley up front, but they rank pretty low in pass and rush defense (22nd and 23rd respectively). Their saving grace is they are +11 in give/takeaway.

This one likely comes down to who holds the ball last. NO wins 44-41.

Sunday we have the Falcons and Giants. Probably the least interesting game to me as neither team is really playing very well right now. The Falcons show flashes of brilliance at times, but they also show long stretches of blehhhhh. They have a 4,000 yard passer in Ryan and a 1300 yard rusher in Michael Turner, but they lay stinkers a little too much. Losing to TB? Ouch. Like the Saints losing to the Rams. Their defense is pretty non-descript, but they do stop the run pretty well. The Giants? For all the guts and glory around all the comebacks by Eli and co. there were a lot of painfull losses. Washington beath them 2x, Seattle beat them at home. And other playoff teams beat them (us, NO, and GB). They did beat NE in NE, but seemed to blow their wad with that until the win over Dallas. They can look masterful for long stretches, but as the Niners did to them, they can look out-of-synch and inept as well. They fall behind too much, and it usually kills them.

Coughlin’s head explodes as his team falls behind big yet again, and they can’t dig out. Atl wins 30-20.

Ahhh, Steelers – Broncos. The Molester vs the Annointed one. Blue Collar vs the Knight in White Satin. Worthlessberger vs Teblow. What would normally be a cakewalk for the Steelers is tempered by the fact that Big (dickhead) Ben is very hobbled by the dreaded high-ankle sprain he suffered during the week 14 win over Cleveland. He showed vs the Niners that he isn’t nearly as effective with a bad wheel than he is when healthy. Why he was left in that game when all was decided is a different question, but it didn’t seem to matter either way. Pittsburg still won games, but faced very few tough teams, minus their loss to us. Denver? Well, they are a train-wreck offensively these days, and playing the #1 defense in the NFL shouldn’t help ol’ Timmy Two-step at all. Tebow, for all his late-game heroics, and blind-faith aww-shucks giggling in his pressers after wins or losses, has but up dreadful numbers these few starts this year. The 7-1 record in his starts this year were tempered by the ghastly play during the last 3 hideous losses. To the tune of 30/63, 439 yds, 1 TD 4 picks for a 46.3 rating while being sacked 10 times. This looks to be a loooow scoring game. Take the under. Even if it will likely be 11.

This will be a field position / punting / FG kind of game. Unless Pittsburgh forgets to watch for Tebow scrambles.  Pittsburgh wins 16-6.

Should be a wild and wooly wildcard weekend wallopalooza . . .

Well, for all of us that thought this year would be a fight for respectability, and a dogfight to win the weak-kneed NFC West, this was an eye-opening season. I certainly knew the team had talent, and I had thought that the team had playoff caliber talent since 2007, but I really thought they would be hamstrung by the lockout, the shortened preseason, and yet another coaching staff that was brought in to try and right the ship. As it turned out, my fears of an 8-8 dogfight to win the West were unwarranted as Jim Harbaugh and company did what the previous three head coaches couldn’t do. And that was to reach the playoffs. And on his first try, no less.

The problem really is, the 49ers did it in too grand a style. I figured at best the Niners to be a 3 seed, or more than likley the 4. Instead, the Niners went 4-1 on their brutal east coast schedule (the only loss being the ridiculous scheduling nightmare that was the Thursday night game in Baltimore), beat perennial powerhouses NYG and Pittsburgh at home, took care of their division foes to the tune of 5-1, and finished the year 13-3 and the #2 seed. One of the more brilliant moves by Jed York was to have the team stay in Youngstown, Ohio between the Cincinnati and Philly games to avoid travelling back and forth between 3 time zones 4 times in 8 days. Players unanimously said it was a team bonding moment that they felt they didn’t get with the abbreivated training camp. They felt it helped develop a sense of purpose and unity. All that being said, expectations, which were a hell of a lot less grandiose at the start of the season, are off the charts. 

Team MVPs are scattered all over the roster. Alex Smith gets obvious props for throwing 17 TDs against a measly 5 INTs. Smith’s last INT was in the Balt game to close the 1st half when Smith and Edwards got crossed up on a deep pass to the end zone. 22 quarters without a pick. Gore had a strong, albeit inconsistent year rushing the ball. Still and all, 1,211 yards on 282 carries for a 4.3 yard average, and 8 TDs is a solid season in anyone’s book. Rookie Kendall Hunter showed very well with his opportunities, gaining 473 yards on 112 carries for a 4.2 average, and 2 scores. For all the unevenness of the wideouts, Michael Crabtree had a very strong season. His numbers (73 catches for 880 yards) aren’t spectacular, but they are a considerable improvement over 2010. Vernon Davis, for all his drops, was the only other pass catcher to remain healthy over the course of the season, and put up decent numbers (67 catches, 792 yards), though they are a drop-off from his previous few years. All the other recievers sent significant time on the sidelines. Joshua Morgan was lost in week 5, Braylon Edwards struggled through knee and shoulder injuries and never got untracked, Ted Ginn, a surprising Kyle Williams, Delanie Walker, and Bruce Miller all missed playing time. Drops by all these guys were a nagging issue as the season went on, but all in all, for all of the injuries and substitutions, they showed fine.

The defense? Well, they are one of the top units in the game right now. The 4th quarter meltdown vs StL notwithstanding. The Niners D was 2nd in points allowed (eked out by Pittsburgh by 0.1 ppg), #1 against the run, #1 turnovers with 36, and #1 in turnover differential with a +26. The biggest changes were to the defensive backfield. CB Carlos Rogers, who was maligned in Washington for not being able to hold on to INTs, led the team, and is tied for 2nd with 6 INTs (along with S Dashon Goldson).  Tarell Brown added 4 INTs, S Donte Whitner and CB Tremaine Brock added 2 each, and S Reggie Smith and rookie CB Chris Culliver each had one pick. A vast improvement over the previous 7 seasons. Rookie of the Year candidate Aldon Smith had 14 sacks, and was a big difference in this defense between this year and last as well. Justin Smith once again had an outstanding year. And the front office was rewarded for signing Ray McDonald to a multi-year deal with a strong season from him as well. Soap did fine holding the nose, and letting the others make plays. The LB corps was the strongest group on the team, with NaVorro Bowman leading the way. Since the pass rush was usually done with 4 rushers, the LBs were free to attack on the runs and stuff just about everything heading their way. Willis was his usual dominant self, and even his backup, Larry Grant had a few great games when Patrick went down with the hammy injury. Haralson? Ehhh. All in all, though, the defense as a whole is regarded as one of the toughest in the league to play against. A sea change from the bend-and-break defense of recent years under Manusky/Sing/Nolan of recent years.

Special teams were just that. Very special. David Akers set the 49ers single-season scoring record,  previously held by Jerry Rice. One of the only non-kickers to HOLD that distinction. And Akers added a TD pass last Sunday. He had innumerable 50 yard + FGs, and did very well to keep opponents from running kicks back. Andy Lee was outstanding in pinning opponents deep in their territory, and led the league in gross and net punting average. The return game was outstanding as wel, with Ted Ginn providing the excitement. His returns help the 49ers consistently win the field position battle game after game. Which led to shorter scoring drives.

So, the playoffs. The 49ers will more than likley face the New Orleans Saints. A high-scoring hard charging team that is playing very well right now. Better than GB even. Matt Flynn’s heroics notwithstanding (GB gives up 41 to Detroit at home? Ouch). The caveat being that the Saints game is going to be at the quagmire known as Candlestick Park. A definite home-field advantage for the boys in red and gold. A win, and the ensuing trip to the NFC Championship game would be a gigantic leap in the fortunes of the 49ers. A loss? Well, as disappointing as that would be, it would still be a hugely successful season in the grand scheme of things. The team is headed in the right direction. The team can only improve with another draft and a full training camp and preseason schedule under the prospective coach of the year in Jim Harbaugh.

Woo hoo!  Time to clinch the # 2 seed.

Here we are at week 17, and there’s still a ton of playoff scenarios in the air. This includes the #2 seed in the AFC (Balt or Pitts) and NFC (SF or NO), the final division winners in the AFC West (Denver or Oak), and the NFC East (NYG or Dal), and the last WC spot for the AFC (Jet, Titans, Bengals, Raiders). Dallas or the Giants are eliminated fro the playoffs with a loss, as is Denver. The Raiders have a shot if they lose because of whatever the Byzantine rules are for determining that final spot should everyone fail.

Which brings us to the other side of the standings. The ‘Suck for Luck’ standings. There are 2 teams left in the race. The St Louis Rams and the Indy Colts. If both teams lose, Indy gets the pick because of lack-of-strength of schedule. Jacksonville, the team facing the Colts, has to be thinking “Hmmmmmmmm, this would be a great time to activate all the practice squad guys . . .” Their prize for winning this game would be to face Andrew Luck 2x a year for the next 12-15 years. I bet they are thrilled about that. Which brings us to St Louis. They have invested a lot of time and money into Sam Bradford, but after a strong rookie campaign, they fell flat on their collective faces this season. None of which is Bradford’s fault, but you have to wonder if they’d go with the guy they have, or shoot the moon and take Luck. Bradford has missed the last 2 games (5 overall), andd will likely miss the last one against the Niners, so it doesn’t look like StL will win. Since they look to probably stick with Bradford, and shit-can their coaching staff this offseason, this means StL trades out. Shit, they could trade out and end up with Griffith III. I saw the highlights of that Baylor game. Craaaaaaazy shit. 67-58? Griffith didn’t even have that great a game, 24-33, 295 and a TD, but they had a whopping 485 on the ground.

Speaking of college football. Here we are at game #22 of the final 64, or some shit like that, and I’ve seen maybe 10 minutes of football. And that was the opening of the Cal / Texas game.  Cal looked OK til they killed their first few drives with turnovers. Then I got bored. The Stanford game looks good, the Rose Bowl is always exciting (I have a lot of Duck alum friends) but LSU / Alabama? The 2 teams that played to an epic 6-3 battle? ZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzz…..  Until they come up with a playoff system, this shit’ll be rigged to death. I may watch some of the pinstripe bowl (shit, we run out of names yet) to see the Rutgers WR Mohamed Sanu. There are some games that just lend themselves to taking a look at, at least. The Sugar Bowl, the Cotton Bowl, the Orange Bowl. But the GoDaddy.conm Bowl? How does that rate? Ark St. vs Northern Illinois? Really? I mean, seriously, did any of you watch the Beef ‘O’Brady Bowl? What the f*ck IS the Beef ‘O’Brady Bowl?  Or the Belk Bowl? I’ve visited the Belk Bowl, but that was after drinking too much whiskey.

And hey, locally we have the 10th annual Kraft Fight Hunger Emerald Blue Diamond San Francisco Nut Bowl between 2 stunningly mediocre teams in Illinois and UCLA. Illinois is at a decent 6-6, but they got there by LOSING their last 6 games.  UCLA won (!) the Pac 12 South with a stellar 6-7 record (and bowl sanctions aganist USC) and 2 staggeringly huge losses to USC (50-0) and Oregon (49-31).