Forty Niners Forever

Dashon Goldson, the mercurial free safety, is making noise like he isn’t going to sign his $6.2 million franchise tender. The 2 sides are apparently nowhere near being close on a contract extension, and he already scoffed at the 5/$25 mill offer he got last year. I’m sure, coning off his pro bowl year, that he wants more in the order of 5 years and $40 million.

Good luck with that, Hawk. Goldson, who is the definition of inconsistent, will not get that kind of coin from the Niners. Safeties are easier to find than CBs, and besides, the Niners scored big time last year, getting Donte Whitner and Carlos Rogers off the 2nd tier free agent pile, and drafting Chris Culliver last year. This year they also have Trenton Robinson from Mich St, and Michael Thomas from Stanford, who are both up and coming guys. Beyond that, Goldson’s play, to me has been so hot and cold as to be infuriating. He had a great year last year, but his play in the NFC Championship game was indicative of the problems he causes. He broke up 2 ints by teammates, and nearly killed Tremaine Brown on the 2nd one. That one was maddening because the play was in front of him, and he should have backed off and let Brown make the play. Instead, he went for the highlight reel hit and ended up injuring his teammate.

That is his style though. He makes big plays, but follows that with missed breakups, bad angles, and missed tackles. He has had long stretches of not playing very well surrounded by a hot 5 game stretch in 2009, and last season’s breakout year. Yes, he made the pro bowl. Yes, he had 6 picks. But, he was helped in no short measure by the immensely improved pass rush, and the retooled secondary around him. Do I think he’s a good player?  Sure. Do I think they should drop a 5/40 deal on him? By all means no. He tried the hardball route last year, and came back with his tail between his legs and signed for $2 mill. He’ll end up like dear old Aubrayo Franklin did. Off the team, a free agent, and scrambling for half the coin he thought he was worth.

They have other options in-house right now, and would not miss him too terribly if he decides to sit out this year. They have other players to sign to long-term deals (hello, NaVorro). i mean, the Saints without Brees are in much more a world of hurt than the Niners without Goldson.

Due to the new CBA, the byzantine OTA rules are as clear as the Mississippi mud. I don’t think players can hit each other yet, but they can LOOK pissed as they pretend. I think they can wear helmets, but no pads. Not much news out of those. But apparently LaMichael James and AJ Jenkins struck up a friendship at the NFLPA rookie premiere camp, whatever that is. 

Other than that, Kyle Williams is trying his damnedest to stick with the team. If he can stay, fine. I just don’t want to see him fielding punts. The guy IS fast, but had trouble getting separation for long stretches of time last year. The WR field is now crowded, but he could stick as the 4th WR behind Randy, Mario, and Crabs. Jenkins? Well, he’s going to find his way into the mix. How much remains to be seen. The Niners likely keep 5 WRs so, he’ll probbably stick. If anything, he’s not shying away from his disastrous NFC Championship game. I like the kid, but shit, what coulda been is almost too hard to think about, even now.

Other than that, hopefully no one gets hurt in these non-contact sessions.

In a bit of very bad news, Darius Fleming, the 5th round LB from Notre Dame tore his ACL in his first pro minicamp  last Friday. This wasn’t the nutcracker, or even a hitting drill, but a non-contact drill in which he came down awkwardly on it. He tried to keep going, but it was obvious there was a problem. It is just the ACL, and nothing else that was damaged, so that’s a little bit of good news. However, he’s pretty much gone for the year. He had signed a 4 year deal worth $2.3 million the day before. Fleming was likely going to be a special teamer and back up, but this is a set-back in his development. Hopefully this is a blip in the future of his career.

In other news, Alex Smith’s mechanics are being given a thorough workover, and supposedly he is looking to stop sailing shit high and to the right. Smith had a great year last year, but there were times he was a little off on some throws. He has been working with Tom House, renowned pitcher and pitching guru for the Atlanta Braves, among others (Nolan Ryan ring a bell?). He has a doctorate degree in sports  psychology, and had been working with QBs for the past 10 years. Apparently he found a problem with Smith’s delivery where he was compensating for losing a little shoulder strength (due to the surgeries) by moving his head to the left. He rebuilt Smith’s delivery to get a better release point, saying Smith had a perfect delivery before the injuries, so it’s a matter of getting back to that point. He also developed an excersize plan to rebuild strength in that surgically repaired shoulder.

What does it mean? Well diddly-squat. Or it means a break out year. We’ll see when we get there, but with a vastly improved WR corps, and a motivated Crabtree, we should see a better passing game this year. The RG spot remains a concern for me since they are likely to be throwing more, so protection to allow these deep patterns to develop is key. They seem to be fine though with the undersized guys they have in Kilgore Trout, David ‘missing’ Person, and erstwhile backup Alex Boone.

. . . the 49ers filled out their roster with 17 undrafted invitees to be cannon fodder for the rest of the team to beat up on. There may be a few diamonds in the rough. Chris Owusu, the Stanford WR, could bump Michael Crabtree off the roster. Kidding, but you never know. Harbaugh’s all about competition, and he pulled a lot of beef out of the chaff. Garrett Celek could push his way onto the team if Walker walks. I won’t bore you with the details of their excellent pedigree, because likely there are only one or two that make the taxi squad, and one or two who make the team. But here they are in all their glory . . .

Know them now, and forget them later . . .

The draft is over, and the UDFAs are in camp, and soon the competition begins. The brain trust of Jim Harbaugh and Trent Baalke have done some fairly unconventional things these last few weeks. Topping the list is the ‘rewarding’ of Alex Smith, coming off his best year by far as a pro, with a make-good deal, and the interetsing move of bringing in Harbaugh’s old protege Josh Johnson. He of the USD Torereros in that fierce Pioneer League (1-AA), and more recently the TB Bucs.

One thing Harbaugh has stressed in his short time as the Niners coach is competition. He said every spot is up for grabs. However true this may be, one thing is sure. The defense is pretty well set for the foreseeable future. There won’t be too much competition there. Perrish Cox and Chrsi Culliver may be fighting for a CB spot, but not much more than that. This of course is predicated on Dashon Goldson signing his franshise tender some time soon. If he doesn’t, then there will be a little shuffling. Culliver played a lot of safety in college, so I don’t see much of a problem if Hawk pouts his way off the team.

Offense is a much different story. At QB you have the four-headed group of Alex, Cappy, Tolzie, and now JJ. As secure as Alex feels going in to camp, it has to be juuust a little unsettling that Harbaugh brought his young mentee into camp. That being said, I don’t really think that this move was directed at Alex. It was more a fire lit under Cappy’s ass. Granted, Cappy hasn’t gotten much chance to show what he’s got, but it makes the battle for the backup job all the more interesting. Shades of Nate Davis coming into camp and basking in the fun of being on an NFL roster. Cappy had his year of incognito-ness. Now he needs to bring it. Tolzein looks to be the odd man out, and he’ll likely get tossed on to the taxi squad. 

RB is interesting as well with the addition of Brandon Jacobs and LaMichael James.  These 2 additions cut in to the shelf life of at the least Anthony Dixon, and possibly Bruce Miller. If they keep the usual 5 backs, you have Gore, Hunter, Jacobs, James, and STer Rockfish. That leaves Dixon and Miller out in the cold. Harbaugh has said he may keep 6 backs, so that would likely be rookie surprise Miller.

WR is also a bunch of fun. Lone holdover Michael Crabtree all of a sudden isn’t the nominal #1 coming into camp. A camp that I think he actually attends. Crabs was obviously hedging his bet last year by not participating in the mini-Alex-happy-camps and calling it a foot injury due to his new shoes. It conveniently lasted all through the pre-empted preseason and camp. Shoe-gate was a joke, as was his bullshit treatment of Alex Smith before those camps started.  With the addition of Randy Moss, Mario Manningham, and the speedster AJ Jenkins, Crabs had better find some dedication to his craft, or get left behind in the dust. If he somehow pulls up lame for training camp, look for him to be traded halfway through the preseason games. Swett Brain and the soon-to-be-departed Kyle Williams don’t appear to be even a blip on the radar at this point, though Swain might stick around for ST duties.

The O line looks to have some changes happening to it. Chilly Chilo is out in the cold. The replacement there will be an ongoing fight amongst the undersized guys we have and a couple newcomers in the draft. The rest of the positions are fairly set and the competition there is the shuffling for backup spots.

Looks to be a very fun training camp this year.

Well, the overhyped meat festival brought to you by the folks that bring you endless nonsense anyway, ended with raving lunatics just trying to get their yowling screams heard on television. Kinda weird watching the later rounds of the draft on ESPN while the drunken leftovers of the weird underclass of fans who come out to watch the thing in the first place were down below careening around empty tables and screamong maniacally. The talking heads on the floating platform paid them no mind, almost as much as they paid no mind to the selections being made.  What starts out as kind of an exciting idea pretty much loses steam by the end of round 2. Once the big names are gone, we have about 200 selections of huh? It was starting to look like Part II of Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas.

Anyhow, you can peruse the 49ers picks on the right side of the blog here. Most notable about the first 2 picks is the speed factor. Short of Kendall Hunter, the disappearing Kyle Williams, and Ted Ginn, there is very little speed at the skill positions. At least USABLE speed (Kyle can’t get open and Ted can’t catch). So the 49ers used their 1st pick on AJ Jenkins. A very fast WR who racked up 1,271 yards his senior year in college at Illinios. He has giant hands, is fast, and appears to run routes well. He looks to be a contributor from the get-go. The 2nd round pick turned out to be a guy that Jim Harbaugh is very familiar with in LaMichael James. He was a very prolific runner for UFO, and is the small, quick back that this team sort of has in Hunter, but he can return kicks and be all over the place using that speed. A couple pf very nice picks in my opinion. They give the team a much needed boost of speed at WR and RB that they didn’t previously have.

The rest of the picks. Huh? They got a couple O linemen, Slowey and Looney (sounds like a crappy comedy team), an ILB in Daruis Fleming, Safety Trenton Robinson, and a very interesting pick in Cam Johnson, a highly rated DE who’s stock fell dramatically, as he was thought to be a late 2 to mid 3 pick. He’s in the mold of a young VD. A training room hero who seems to have motivation issues. Baalke also gained 3 picks in next year’s draft, in rounds 3, 5, and 6. Pretty deft manuvering. He got what he wanted (speed and depth), and still turned it into additional picks for next year. Pretty soon the league will be singing this guy’s praises. After the Niners win the Super Bowl this season. Young Sir Alex? Well, I’m sure the nattering nabobs will say a trained monkey could have won it with this team.

The 49ers, as with last year’s #1 pick, selected a guy that was under the radar for the general public but was highly thought of by actual NFL GMs. AJ Jenkins, from Illinios, racked up 1,271 yards and 8 touchdowns last year, all the while sneaking up the depth charts of many war room denizens. The Rams had worked him out and had placed him nearly on the same level as Justin Blackmon. The Niners went to one of his workouts and obviously liked what they saw. Some insiders had him as a early to mid 2nd rounder due to his 4.38 40 time, excellent hands, and his route-running. Sure, he’s not the prototypical 49er WR (think JJ Stokes. Well, don’t. Think Dwight Clark) who is big and sure-handed. He’s more of a speed burner DeSean Jackson type who can stretch the field. My take is he’s definitely Randy Moss insurance. But lining up both those guys outside will hopefully give defenses fits. Crabs may find himself behind Manningham as the slot guy. Guys like Kyle Williams and Ted Ginn appear to be buried on the depth chart at WR. KW likely is odd man out since Ginn is the KR guy (and let it be known Ginn was injured playing WR, not returning a kick). Unless Harbaugh is leaning toward more 3-4 wide reciever sets, and a more wode-open offense, there may be some bitching among the pass-catchers. Which means ol’ Randy becomes cranky. We’ll see how that goes.

KW was supposed to be what they drafted AJ for. A speedly guy who can create mismatches, draw safeties to him, get open with his speed, and open up shit underneath for Crabs. For whatever reason, KW just never got enough separation, and was not very good at finding open areas to catch balls. The Niners went a little overboard to address their non-production at WR, but better too much than too little. Crabs had a good enough year, but disappeared in the playoffs. Whether due to the fact that everyone knew he was the only WR worth a damn, or he just wan’t getting open himself, the team needed to upgrade the WR spot seriously. Morgan’s injury, Edwards’ slowness coming back from his many injuries, and Ted Ginn’s inability to be a genuine WR led to  these decisions to get Moss, Manningham, and AJ. UIt’s weird that a guy who can field punts in the tricky Stick winds, can’t catch passes.

Baalke had AJ pegged a while ago as the guy he really wanted, and he played the quiet game well. Other teams were definitely scouting the dude. The guy is an academic all-American, has huge hands, and is tough to boot.

One down 6 to go. At this point, I think the Niners get RB Turbin in the 2nd round. Fleenere is likely out of the mix. Don’t be surprised to see a 5th to 7th pick for WR though.

Here we are on draft day 2012, and the concensus for who the San Francisco 49ers will pick is all over the board. RG, WR, RB, CB, DT, and C have all been bandied about by the draft wonks out there. Thing is, picking at the back end means a lot more uncertainty out there than when you pick near the top. Guys who should be long gone can hang around til the 2nd round, or guys who are projected in the 2-3 rounds get snapped up early. In 2010, it was fairly certain that the Niners would draft O line help in the 1st round. Both picks? Maybe not, but they were going to take a lineman with one of those 2 first round picks, regardless. Last year? Well, no one on Earth had the words ‘Aldon Smith’ next to the Niners at 7 last year. 10,000 mocks didn’t have Smith anywhere near 7 in the draft. He was seen as a raw athletic guy who was a borderline 1st rounder. Baalke and the scouts obviously did a good job scouting and hiding the fact they wanted him, But I’m 100% certain that no one else would have picked him had they KNOWN the Niners wanted him at 7.

Frankly, Baalke’s drafts have been flat amazing. He has a lot to live up to given the fact that a lot of his picks these last 2 drafts are starting for a good team and are up-an-coming stars. All that being said, the guys that appear to be on the short list are:

WR Stephen Hill
RB Robert Turbin
TE Coby Fleener
G Amini Silatolu
SS Harrison Smith
CB Janoris Jenkins
DT Chandler Jones

The more I think about this, the more I’m leaning toward the Niners going with a Right Guard. That is pretty much a position that can be filled from the get-go without a whole lot of anguish.  And it is the biggest weakness on a team that has improved itself with those string drafts, and key FA acquisitions these past 2 years.

One of the more interesting aspects of this is the trading up/down. Baalke has done a fair bit of wheeling and dealing these past 2 years. Last year, Baalke traded up in the 2nd to get Kappy Kaepernick. He traded down in the 3rd round last year to gain a 6th round pick (Ronald Johnson. Ooops). He traded up in the 4th to get Kilgore Trout. The year before, he traded up in the 1st to get Anthony Davis, traded up in the 1st to get Iupati, and traded down in the 3rd round to get Navorro Bowman (!), as well as Anthony Dixon. The dude loves the deal. In short, the guy is quietly proving himself to be an outstanding GM.   

So, gimme your guesses as to how the Nines fill their first 2 spots in the draft. Or, what the hell. Gimme all your picks for all 7. Here’s mine:

1. G Amini Silatolu
2. WR Rueben Randle
3. RB Lamar Miller
4. CB Omar Bolden
5. NT Akiem Hicks
6. OT Levy Adcock
7. WR Jordan White

Trent Baalke, he of the pretty damn good draft record in his two drafts (see below), says he has his guy all picked out for the 30th spot in the draft. He’s not saying, of course, but the wonks out there who think they know how shit like this go, say he will go WR, RG, or RB. WR Stephen Hill, he of the blazing speed and size (6’4″, 215 lb) would lend himself to be the perfect fit, as Harbaugh likes the bigger WRs that Walsh mostly liked, if he’s available. Sanu has been bandied about (please God no), and my personal fave (not really a WR, but he can be lined up as one) Coby Fleener.

RG? I don’t know enough about the draft  to even know. This isn’t like a couple years ago when they had a huge OL need, and filled it with Davis and Iupati. Guys who are solid if not spectacular. I see them taking a couple linemen, but I have no clue who.

RB? One guy who looks like he could work is Robert Turbin. He came for a visit, so at least he’s on the radar, and he’s a plugger at 5’10”-220 lb. A nice goal line guy. That is if Kendall Hunter comes on this year and starts to play like Gore as he roll sown toward the end of his career. You have to think they like Gore/Hunter as their featured back, and they’ll have Jacobs as the short yardage guy. This year. As next year rolls around, it could very well be Hunter/Turbin in those roles.

Other than that? Well, lots of prognosticators have the Niners beefing up their DLine. Guys like Dontari Poe get some love and hope, although he could possibly be there in the 2nd round as his motor and heart have been called into question. I wouldn’t risk it with him in the 1st round, although that 4.8 40 time is otherworldly for a guy his size. If he’s there with the 2nd? Sure. but not with the 1.

Anyhow, here’s Baalke’s two drafts. 11 of the 18 drafted played roles in the path to success last year. 4 were hampered by injuries (and 3 of the 4 are still with the team). Person and Kilgore are in the mix to take over the RG spot. The only flameouts curiously enough came from USC. Taylor Mays (the guy Sing wanted in the 1st round) and WR Ronald Johnson.

2010 Draft:

1 Anthony Davis T
1 Mike Iupati G 
2 Taylor Mays DB
3 Navorro Bowman LB
6 Anthony Dixon RB 
6 Nate Byham TE
6 Kyle Williams WR
7 Phillip Adams DB

2011 Draft:

1 Aldon Smith DE 
2 Colin Kaepernick QB
3 Chris Culliver DB
4 Kendall Hunter RB 
5 Daniel Kilgore OL 
6 Ronald Johnson WR 
6 Colin Jones DB
7 Bruce Miller DL 
7 Michael Person OL  
7 SFO Curtis Holcomb DB

And once again, after a long time, the 49ers are the darlings of the NFL. They get the NFL maximum of 5 primetime games. This will be a big test for the team. They took the league by surprise last year, as NO ONE expected great things from this team. Even while it was happening. No one short of Skeebs, that is. But that was wishful thinking anyway. Anyhow, Harbaugh in his short time as head coach has rubbed a LOT of people the wrong way. he and Pistol Pete Carroll have a history that goes back to their college days. Jim Scwartz had his infamous Shakegate deal with Harbaugh last season, after the Niners last-second win over them. Speaking of Detroit, they come to the Stick for the home opener after our 3rd trip in 4 years to GB. At least it’s not the deal of winter.

The Niners have a pretty tough a start as they have the Lions, Giants, and Packers in their first 6 games, and play Minn in Minn. Again, though, I think this team has been stocked with talent for a few years, and is now finally coming to live up to the expectations of us fans. Super Bowl? Maybe, maybe not. They made a gigantic leap last year, and living up to that will be a tough tough task. That being said, teams like the Giants and Saints have gotten weaker, while only GB looks to be what they were last year.  They’ll need some luck to overcome their huge turnover ratio last year. That kind of shit is hard to sustain.  Although you have to think Aldon Smith gets better, and the D in general stays rock solid at creating havoc.

Offense? Well, the Niners finally have at least a decent cast of WRs. Moss notwithstanding. It’s a curiosity at this point, but he WILL draw attention. I’m sure we’ll see a couple new faces in the draft as there are a ton of WRs that look good at every spot in the draft. If the passing game improves (say top 15), and the turnovers stay down, that is the recipe for success. No one in the AFC looks very scary at this point, so the door is open for the 49ers.