Forty Niners Forever

Sorry, Yoko.

Game #9 of the season is here, the bye week and break is over, and the team has re-tooled with the addition of Aldon Smith, Mario Manningham, Eric Wright, and Tank Carradine. Aldon Smith likely comes in as a situational pass rusher, so he’ll get some snaps on defense. 15-20 I’d think. Unless Carolina gets pass happy. The rest? Not sure. I’d like to think super Mario gets some serious playing time as the Niners are going to need to throw the ball to get the run game going. And they need more than VD and Boldin to get the passing game going. If the Niners can get the passing game going early, that should open up the run game.

Carolina for their part plays defense much like the Niners. They rely on their front seven to control the game. They don’t blitz very much, and they stop the run an good as anyone without having to stack the line. They maintain their gaps and fill the running lanes. Which is why I think the Niners need to pass early to open things up. Carolina often only rushes 4 and covers with 7 so it is imperative that the Niners get people open. Miller has been serving well as a check down safety valve type guy recently, and we have Manningham back. Carol hasn’t faced a mobile QB like Kappy, and Carol’s star LB Luke Keuchly has been burned a couple times on seam routes, so the chances should be there.

I don’t think this one will be easy, but we are coming off our break, and they are traveling across the country. Niners win going away.

Criminy, things are starting to get very interesting in the NFL. Seattle, the early shoe-in for the NFC crown is staggering around like a punch-drunk sailor on shore leave. They have squeaked through most of their games this year amid injuries and some impressive comebacks, but how do you fall behind by 17 to the Buccos? Teams on the rise are the Niners and the surprisingly resurgent Carolina Panthers. The Niners didn’t even play last week, but their stock rose considerably due to the fact that Aldon Smith, Mario Manningham, Tank Carradine, and Eric Wright are back with the team and ready to play. And the fact they are still riding a 5 game winning streak. The niners didn’t really do bad without Aldon Smith, but the pass rush definitely suffered. Aldon missed the last 5 games yet remains the leading sacker on the team with 4.5. The hope is he picks up right where he left off. Tank Carradine, the studly injured defensive lineman who has been dying to get in to a game, and Quinton Dial, another defensive lineman who was drafted injured, has recently returned. So, a defense that has been stifling these past 5 weeks, giving up roughly 12 points a game, should now be deeper and healthier.

In that vein, Mario Manningham returns from last year’s knee injury. More promising news is that Michael Crabtree has just returned to practice, and he looks to be back on the field in 3 weeks. So, the offense which has recently thrived under Frank Gore and his fountain of youth 2013 season, has more weapons at their disposal. All this is well and good for the surprising 32nd (yes, last) passing team in the league. To offset that of course, is the fact that the Niners are the #1 rushing offense. Which works out (surprise) to 16th in the league for offense. They are 5th in scoring however. This directly relates to their 16 turnovers caused. The takeaway from this is that in theory the Niners are on the rise.

That being said, the Niners are facing another team on a roll of it’s own. Carolina is on a 4 game win streak of their own, and they are similar to the Niners in that they have a tough defense that doesn’t give up points, and holds on to the ball with a solid running game. They both have young strong QBs who can get large chunks of yards with their legs, and Cam Newton is having a great season so far after a disappointing season last year.

All in all, both teams are playing well and looking to keep their streaks going. The good news fro SF is they are coming off their bye week, and are healthier and stronger than when they last played in London while Carolina is travelling across the country. I think the Niners take this one in a fairly close affair that the Niners win going away. Let’s say 31-21.

In what looks to be a crazy ride to the playoffs, the scenario as we stand right now appears to be that whoever doesn’t win the NFC West is going to have a better record than any of the other division winners. The Niners, currently the 5th seed, and Seattle the 1 seed create a scenario where the 2nd best team in the league is the 5th seed and therefore must play an extra playoff game, as they’d be the top wildcard. Fair or not, that is the system as it stands. It may not come to pass, but it’s something to think about as the NFL debates changing the playoff structure (2 more WC teams) yet again.

Beyond the top 5 teams (Sea, NO, GB, (urk) Dal, and WC #1 SF), there is a mad scramble for the last playoff spot. Carolina has pushed their way into that spot with a 4 game winning streak. There are 6 teams with a fair to poor shot at getting that last spot. Their viability as a real contender comes into sharp focus with their trip across the country to the slimy confines of Candlestick Park next weekend. They also have NE, NO, and the surprising Jets. If they make the playoffs, they’d have earned it.

Detroit (5-3)
Chicago (4-3)
Arizona (4-4)
Philly (4-5)
Washington (3-5)
St. Louis (3-6)

Carol owns the tiebreaker with Deetroit with their win over them, but other scenarios will work themselves out as the season goes on. Detroit looks good what with their overpowering defense, and Matt Stafford playing strong. They have a huge division game with Chicago next weekend. Chicago may be hurting without Jay Cutler, but Matt Forte scored an ungodly 6 TDs yesterday but still lost to the ‘Skins. And they still have 2 games with GB, DAL, and Balt on their schedule. AZ? They are Jeckyll and Hyde-ing their way through the season. They’ve beaten Detroit, but no one else of note. They still have 3 division games, and look to fade. Philly? Another team wallowing in mediocrity. Although Nick Foles looks to have the starting QB job as of now after he dismantled the Raiders yesterday. He needs to come on strong to overcome GB, Detroit, Chicago and Dallas.

Washington and St.Louis? They would need divine intervention to get in. Although it worked for Minnesota last year. SO all these vyers for that last spot have to go through one another to get there. It looks to be a bloodbath, and it looks to be a hell of a lot of fun . . .

For the want of a Niner game, let’s go over the team at the midway point of the season. Offensively, the team has survived a bunch of preseason (and regular season) injuries to get themselves back into the playoff picture when it was a little murky after week 3 and the Niners were 1-2. Those first 3 games were strangely pass oriented. It worked for the Green Bay game, but the Seattle and Indy games were laden with sacks, hurries, and no continuity or sustained running. Both games were close heading into the 4th quarters, but both ended up being blowouts as the defense faded from being on the field too long, and the offense kept turning the ball over.

Since those games however, the Niners have once again strapped themselves to the bell cow, Frank Gore. He is seemingly just as fresh as he was 5 years ago, and is still playing at a very high level. With Gore running successfully, other aspects of the offense now work. The passing game has gotten fairly effective, even though there are mainly two targets, VD and Anquan Boldin. Bruce Miller has come on as a check down, after some early season drops (the Seattle game especially he dropped a TD). The Niners even threw a swing pass to Gore last week (!). The good news is Marion Manningham will soon be back on the field for the 2nd half push. And Colin Kaepernick, who overcame a foot injury in the Green Bay game, has settled down and has once again become a viable read-option threat.

Defensively, the team has overcome injuries to the D line. Ian Williams was knocked out of the season with a broken ankle in week 2 on a cheap-shot block low and behind Williams, and Glenn Dorsey has been in and out with different tweaks. Nnamdi Asomugha went down to injury, but has been more than ably replaced by Tremaine Brock. Then there is the machinations of Aldon Smith and his arrests, rehab, and subsequent reinstatement a few days ago. Through all this, the defense has gotten stronger, due to the emergence of guys like Corey Lemonier and rookie safety Eric Reid. Patrick Willis as fought through injuries, but the star so far is NaVorro Bowman. He leads the team in tackles, and is all over the place.

The good news for the team is the injuries and distractions they have overcome to build this 6-2 record. I don’t know how or if the injury to Kaepernick had anything to do with the stopping of the read-option (and I actually called for it in the GB game), but the offense was out of sync until the ground game got going in week 4 against the Rams. The team is getting depth help from Quinton Dial and Tank Carradine after this bye, as well as Manningham, and hopefully soon, Michael Crabtree.

The team is setting up to be in good shape for the 2nd half of the season. How this shakes out with Seattle and their injury problems with their O lline remains to be seen. I’m not holding out much hope for TB to do anything on the road in Seattle, but the Atl game next week may be a stumbling block for them. The hope is the Niners can get to the Dec 8th game with Seattle even with them.

UPDATE: Aldon Smith was activated by the 49ers from the Non-Football Injury list

Aldon Smith has returned to team headquarters today. Whether he can play soon or even at all remains to be seen. He has his Nov 12 appearance for the 3 weapons charges he faces, as well as a Nov 19 court date for the DUI arrest that put him into rehab in the first place. Tell ya one thing. That must have been one hell of a party. He got stabbed, weapons were fired, and Smith ends up getting arrested for assault weapons charges.

Not sure how the fact that the cops invited Smith to go to a shooting range plays into this, but it can’t help the prosecution’s case very much. I’m sure that the weapons charges will get pled down to misdemeanors, but the DUI thing still has to be dealt with. Although the ‘good faith’ deal of Smith going to rehab and thus missing 5 games also plays into the league’s reaction. I suppose the next couple weeks of his being with the team and how he addresses these things in public will play their role as well. Act contrite and talk about changing your life, and that works with Goodie Goodell’s perception-is-everything idea of cleaning up his league. Act like a stupid punk going forwardand pay the price. I don’t think he, or the team, is that dense though. He will likely be in lockdown mode as the team has assured him that one more wrong move and he’ll be tossed from the team. if not the league.

That’s all well and good. I sincerely hope he gets his shit together and stays with the team, as he is a once-in-a-generation talent, and seems to be a nice kid, if not caught up in a bunch of shit. The party seemed to bring some nasty shit to the forefront for him, but the DUI stuff has dogged him for a while now. Is it simply the exuberance of youth? Too much too soon for a young man? A thug escaping the hood? Truth be told no one knows but Aldon and his family. When he was drafted, I didn’t hear anything regarding red flags or behavior issues around him, but then again, I hadn’t heard of him at all until the Niners drafted him.

The unspoken elephant in the room regarding him (and a few other mercurial talents that get in trouble) is that HE doesn’t really have to do much to get right back into the league with an enormous contract under his belt, provided he doesn’t kill himself or someone else. Whether he is suspended for all of this year and next, cut from the Niners and even does some jail time, teams will line up to sign him after he has faced his obligations, whatever they may be. The league is filled with guys who have faced many differing charges and have come back. Pacman Jones being the most glaring example. He was on probation when drafted for a bar fight, and arrested for vandalizing a nightclub in Nashville before ever playing a down in the NFL. Then there was the public drunkenness arrest, and the infamous ‘making it rain’ beating of a stripper and subsequent gunplay. He served time, was suspended for a year, and generally kept screwing up for years. Even after the shooting incident, he was involved in other shootings and general unruliness. He’s currently playing very well for the Bengals on a 3 year deal.

The point? Well, Aldon still holds all the chips in his future. If he gets his shit together, he can reap tons of money and gain possible HOF status if he keeps rolling the way he has played. Keep screwing up and he still will likely play for a lot of money, if not go through the machinations of jail, suspensions, fines, and other bullshit. Like I said, I hope he straightens himself out before he kills himself or someone else, or simply pisses his career away.

Here we are at the halfway mark, and the bye week, and the 49ers are fairly flying. 5 double-digit victories in a row, Stifling defensive performances, and a punishing run game has put the Niners back in the Super Bowl chatter. Sure, the competition hasn’t been among the elite, but you play the guys in front of you. The point being, the team came out of training camp pretty beaten up, and they have weathered that after a couple real bad games vs Seattle and Indy. Games where Harbaugh uncharacteristically ditched the run game despite all the injuries to the wide receivers, and lost games that were both decided late. Games that should have been more in line with how they usually play. And that’s the power running game behind Frank Gore.

So, the good news is, Vernon Davis gets a chance to heal his tweaked hammy. Kappy’s foot has healed up from his injury in the Green Bay game. Quinton Dial was recently activated from the PUP list. Tank Carradine as well. Soon to be followed by Mario Manningham and Eric Wright. The team has established their run game, and has managed to at least wean Bruce Miller into the passing game as an option rather than Boldin or VD. This means the team is getting healthy and will be getting fresh players to add depth and strength for the few remaining tough games down the stretch.

The obstacle of course is the Seattle Seahawks. A team that managed to win a game last night despite 138 yards of total offense. A team that could very well be a game behind the Niners if not for a Deangelo Williams fumble, a Matt Schaub pick 6, and a thrashing at the hands of the Rams yesterday. Woulda shoulda coulda I know, but Seattle is winning these games on the road, and that isn’t good. However, they are just now getting hit with injuries. Harvin isn’t back yet, but more importantly, they lost tackles Russell Okung and Breno Giacamini. It was very apparent yesterday when Robert Quinn and Chris Long both had 3 sacks. And Sidney Rice is out for the rest of the year with a knee injury. So an offense that is sputtering may have yet another injury to overcome.

Unfortunately for SF, Seattle has the Bucs, Falcons, and Vikes coming up. Since only the Falcons are on the road, they will likely win those 3 before getting Nawlins at home. A toss-up. The Niners have the Panthers here, then NO and Washington on the road. Not an easy task. The hope is the Niners are one game back when Seattle comes to town. Sea will likely be 10-2 at worst when they come to town. The Niners will have to beat a tough Carolina team, and win in NO as well as Washington to keep pace. The Rams come here, and while they are a fast defense, the Niners should be able to outscore them. Losing to NO on the road looks like the one they drop. So, at 9-3, that would set the stage for the Seattle showdown.

One of my favorite songs by one of my favorite bands, The Clash. Notably for the Elvis homage album cover.

Anyhow, the Niners are getting ready to tilt with the Jacksonville Jaguars in jolly old England. Jax is one of two teams without a win. The other being the TBay Succaneers. A team that gave up early and laid down like licked puppies tonight in a blase effort guaranteed to get head coach Greg Schiano an early start on the end of the season.

Jacksonville, on the other hand, well, the same hand, isn’t really providing anything resembling solid football. They are last in offense, last in scoring, 28th in defense, last in points given up, last in point differential, and last in rushing yards allowed. Needless to say, the hope is a quick painless win that allows the team to heal up for the bye and the and 2nd half push.

I’d expect to see running, running, and more running. Shove these guys out of the way and beat them down early. Bring in as many 2nd stringers as possible (hello Colt McCoy), and auto-pilot this bitch to victory. I know, on any given Sunday, blah blah blah, but really. A loss to this team would be a huge blow. To our playoff hopes, and to our psyche in general.

Put these kitties down and roll to our 5th win in a row. 6-2 at the break was about what I hoped for at the start of the season, and this would fall right in line with that.

How Tennessee missed out on that team name escapes logic. I think it won the naming poll by over 40%. 2 huge things in its favor. Everyone like penguins, and Don (Maxwell Smart) Adams was the voice of Tennessee.

Anyhow, The Niners played a very solid game yesterday. Well, until the end when they went super conservative and let the tit’ns back into it a little. They were up 24-0 entering the 4th quarter, and they let a big play happen off an innocuous screen play that may or may not have been illegally blocked. Still and all, though, a game that was never in doubt as the defense kept Chris Johnson and Jake Locker from doing any serious damage until late in the game. Standouts were Anquan Boldin and his two spectacular catches among the 5 for 74, VD and his solid effort of 4 for 62, Frank Gore had 70 on the ground, and 34 in the air, including (gasp!) a screen play that went for 29! VM even made a great catch on a tipped pas at the 1 ayard line to set up the 2nd TD. Kappy ended up a very efficient 13-21 for 199 yards + 68 on the ground, including a 20 yard scamper for a TD on 3rd and 7 to close out the 1st half. A definite knife in the heart of Tenn. Especially when the Niners took the 2nd half kickoff on a 14 play, 79 yard drive that ate 7:35 of the 3rd quarter to put the Niners up 24-0.

The defense had a lot of big plays, including Tremaine Brock’s pick on a deep pass by locker, 2 sacks by Justin Smith (and 1 by Ahmad Brooks), and constant harassment of Locker in the pocket. Out of Tenn’s first 8 drives, 6 ended with punts, one was an INT, and one FG. Tenn got yards, but no points. Til garbage time. One of the biggest plays however turned out to be a beautiful hit by hitherto unknown special teamer Darryl Morris on Darius Reynaud that he fumbled and was recovered bay Kareen Osgood in the end zone for a huge ST touchdown. Morris was all over the place on punts and KO returns, one KO he pinned Tenn on the 9 yard line.

All in all one of the Niners most consistent efforts. Albeit, I didn’t like the way they turtled in the 4th quarter. Still and all, a good road win, especially when you look at how Seattle struggled with these guys at home the week before. The offense is hitting bigger plays with a little more consistency, and the run game is still keeping defenses honest. As a proponent of ditching the read-option early in the season, I think they’ve struck a good balance with it. Using it instead as a surprise rather than an every-possession (or even every set of downs) play. I’ll admit to be wrong about that, even though I was right. Right?

Or, Highyway 61 Revisited. The Niners are gearing up for their longest road trip of the season. A trip to Tennessee, Youngstown, and then Jolly Old England. They won’t be playing at home for a little while anyway, as the bye week follows the trip overseas.

Speaking of crossroads, we’ll see if the 49ers can do something that still hasn’t been done since Jolly Roger Goodell started these yearly jaunts to Wembley, and that is to win the game previous to the trip, and win the game in England. There’s still a lot of question marks around this team as it struggles to find its way offensively. The good news is Mario Manninghamis closer to being activated, likely after the break. Quinton Dial has been activated to shore up a defensive line decimated by injuries. The run game has been stellar lately, but this hasn’t translated into huge success for the passing game. Which hasn’t looked great since week one. Still and all, not a big problem if Kappy can hit the big play when the opportunity arises, as he did with VD last week.

The defense has been wreaking havoc by generating turnovers these past few games, and it very well may have saved the team an embarrassing loss to AZ with the strip by Patrick Willis on Larry Fitzgerald as the Cards were driving to take the lead.

The Tits on the other hand have been sagging in recent weeks due to Jake Locker’s dealing with hip and knee injuries. Ryan Fitzpatrick has not rallied the troops, and has engineered. 2 game losing streak for them. Locker has been named the starter for this game, so the he is we get after him and hit hi early and often. For once I’d like to see the defense come out blitzing and generating tons of pressure instead of our usual base package til we see what’s going on defense.

Bottom line is, this is a game the Niners should win. Tennessee isn’t that great at any aspect of the game. A couple quick strikes and a couple long drives should harness these Tits handily.

In what should be a wipe-out, the Arizona Cardinals are hosting the Seattle Seahawks tonight in the big cactus. If anything, an interesting showdown between the possible Super Bowl representative from the NFC against the semi-surprising upstarts from the desert. It’s a given that Carson Palmer is struggling as he’s 18th in yards per game, and 31st in QBR, with 7 TDs and 11 picks. More interesting though is how poorly Russell Wilson is doing so far this season. He’s 28th in yards per game, 16th in completion percentage, 23rd in attempts, yet has a decent 92.6 rating, with 8 TDs and 4 picks. Good enough for 9th.

Seattle’s offense leans heavily on their run game (sound familiar?). They are 2nd in the league in rush yards per game, 10th in overall yards per game, and 8 in scoring. AZ is a distant 26th in yards per game, and 25th in scoring. By comparison, the 49ers are 4th in rushing yards, 23rd in yards per game, and 13th in points per game.

Defensively, Seattle is tough all around. 2nd in yards against passing, 11th in yards against rushing, 2nd overall in yards against, and 3rd in points allowed. AZ? 19th (surprisingly) in yards against passing, 5th in yards against rushing, 15th overall in yards against, and 12th in points allowed.

Az played better than I thought they would, and I certainly thought the Niners would get more pressure on Palmer, and I foresee Carson getting planted a few times, but I think AZ may hold serve against these guys. Seattle has proven to be much less imposing on the road, and AZ is always tough at home. Give Palmer some time, and he can do some damage. Still think Seattle wins though. Got to make the case . . .