San Francisco 49ers Forever

Among all the deals that need to be made, the players that need to be signed, the impending draft, and the recent heartbreaking losses, we haven’t heard from Young Jed, the not-so-erstwhile owner of your San Francisco 49ers. I mention this because, at least in my mind, there seems to be trouble brewing. Nothing major, not at this point, but I think there are issues behind the scenes with the direction of this offense, and with the power structure in the front office.

No one has come out and said anything, but there are intimations from some of the writers that Harbaugh was not happy with the direction of the play calling as the season wore on. He supposedly took a more active role from Greg Roman as the season wore on, for good or ill. Then you have the ‘creative tensions’ between Harbaugh and Trent Baalke. Harbaugh certainly wasn’t impressed with AJ Jenkins as he rarely saw the field, and other highly regarded players (see: LMJ) have languished on the sidelines to the point of distraction. Then you have Jed York and Baalke both saying that Aldon Smith would ‘play sparingly’ after the DUI arrest, yet Harbaugh used him on all the defensive plays vs Indy. The whole Eric Mangini Experience was a black hole of nothingness, and this offense once again sputtered and stalled at the worst possible time and came up short.

Add to this the fact that Jim Harbaugh is in line for a contract extension. He is now behind Jeff Fisher of StL ($7 mill) and Super Bowl winner Pete the Cheat Carroll ($6 mill). One would think he’d like to ratchet that up a bit to be in line with the elite coaches. Say $7.5 mill a year. You have to wonder if he’d like more control over the draft than how the balance is currently established, with Baalke having the final say.  Will he parlay his success to gain more control? Or will he do what his recent history suggests and put on his travelling shoes? The University of Texas made a push for Harbaugh last December, and while it seemed implausible then, who’s to say he may not want to give it a shot back in college?

I think Jed has the utmost respect for Harbaugh, but you really have to wonder how Jim plays this. The Colin Kaepernick extension (and all the rest of the players after him) could very well depend on the Niners signing Harbaugh to an extension. Jed isn’t one to swing his dick around, but if Jed has a mind that he wants more offense rather than the Michigan offense we seem to be channelling, I wonder if he would hire a new more pass oriented OC and see how Harbaugh reacts. Or will Jed simply let the contract issue slide for one more season and play the string out to see what the team does?Harbaugh still has 2 more seasons under contract, and a lot can change from now to the end of the 2015 season.

I seriously doubt this doom-and-gloom shit happens, but really, this is a team in flux with all the players on the edge of free agency, and these undercurrents of a power struggle between Harbaugh, Baalke, and possibly York as Harbaugh seems to want more control over personnel decisions. It certainly puts the fact that guys like AJ Jenkins and LMJ get left out of the rotation as guys around them get hurt and they still don’t see the field of play in a different light.

Lots of talk out there regarding the huge impact the salary cap will be as guys like Colin Kaepernick, Michael Crabtree, Mike Iupati, Anquan Boldin, Richard Dawson, Donte Whitner, and a few hundred others come up for free agency in the next year.  Someone (or two) is going to be left out with all the signings the Niners need to make. And that’s just from within the team. Kaep to me is the deal you work out first. Everything flows down from getting him on board for the next 4 years at least. After that I think Boldin is the biggest priority. He and Kappy had great great success together. Then you have Crabs. He’s going to be a hairdo I’m afraid. Or maybe he won’t. His holdout to start his career hasn’t been forgotten, but his steady ascension to being a top flight WR has come to pass. But he’s going to want a big payday. One the Niners may not want to do. Because in the endd, he’s a possession WR. Not a burner like Julio Jones (or even Roddy White) or an unstoppable force like Megatron.  If anyone is going to get a ride to the end of their deal, it’ll be Crabs. Cheaper possession WRs can be had once his deal runs out. I’d like to see Donte Whitner stick around as well. He has been vital to the development of Eric Reid, and the 2 form a strong safety tandem, despite the rookie mistakes in the NFCCG. Dawson? Sure, but no need to go nuts on him. With McDonald being not much and Celek providing minimally, I’d wonder what a guy like TE Brandon Pettigrew from Deetroit would cost. Maybe get a discount for the opportunity to play on a winning team, or a 2 year incentive-laden deal.

If there are casualties, it could end up being Iupati, Goodwin, Crabs, and Wright. I just wish Boldin wasn’t so old, but he’s not a speed guy anyway, so he shouldn’t drop off too much, at least for the next couple years. Rice played at a high level til he was 40ish. Kilgore Trout and Looney can take Iupati and Goodwin’s line spots, and we can draft backups.  Cox is on the bubble, but he played well. As did Tarell Brown once he recovered from his rib injury. I’d keep both and of course draft backups. WR is was and will be a draft need. Osgood and Boobie are ST stalwarts, and should be easy to keep. I heard George Constanza is also available. He was a great ST guy when here, and he wants to come back. With Ventrone signed that may not be possible.

Maybe I never noticed it before, maybe it wasn’t happening as much, or maybe it’s real, but this season, more than I say the last 15, wew are hearing a lot of conspriacy theories around these championhip games and the Super Bowl. Questioning the veracity of these claims is certainly warranted, msinly because they are all varying flavors of bullshit. But, the reasons why the thoeries are so diverse and numerous is totally real.

It all stems from the completely shitty refereeing going on in the the NFL these days. Yes, it has to do somewhat with the blanket coverage afforded every game these days. Multiple angles, slow-mo, even 3-D imaging, all come into play for EVERY play of EVERY game. There’s no hiding. Players are faster and hit harder and thus things can be missed easier. Then there’s the fact that these refs are all part-timers. There’s been talk for years to make these guys full time employees of the NFL.  Why? Mainly to digest and enforce the myriad rules changes that the NFL deem necessary to rewrite every year. But this leads to what I think has been the biggest fundamental change in how games are officiated. And it ties in with the NFL’s bid to sidetrack any and all legal matters surrounding concussions and subsequent lawsuits from injured/disabled players and former players.

From, say, the 50’s to the early 2000s there have been significant rules changes around keeping WRs unmolested going downfield, clothesline tackling, facemasks, forearm clubbing at the line, and more recently, quarterback safety. The thing is, these are very objective penalties. Clothesline? Penalty. Grab a facemask? Penalty. These are easy to spot and easy to enforce. What has been the biggest subjective penalty for the past 30 years? Pass interference. These have never been enforced consistently for all this time. It used to be if you breathed on a WR 5 yards past the line of scrimmage, it was a PI. Now you have teams like Seattle and their big physical corners who seemingly stretch the limits of the rule every play. And the thing is, depending on the ref crew, you may or may not get PI calls.

And this leads directly to the whole concussion aspect of Goodie Goodell’s NFL. For years and years, some players would lead with the helmet. Spearing became a penalty a while ago, but it was rarely called, and those were pretty obvious. Nowadays, you have rules against hitting a ‘defenseless’ wide receiver in the process of making a catch, hitting a QB in the head/neck area, hitting a QB below the knees, and helmet-to-helmet hits. The problem is, these are highly subjective as to how they are called. Watch any game, and you will see maybe 10 or 15 helmet to helmet hits. How many get called? Maybe 2. Hard clean hits are flagged all the time, while blatant hits are let go. Throw in the fact that Goodell routinely orders his refs to ‘get on top’ of games that he deems could possibly become chippy, as in the recent NFC Championship game between SF and Seattle.  Which means you get chickenshit PF calls on the head butt on Crabs in the Carolina game, or the PF on Carlos Rogers for a light shove to a WR on a continuation play in the Seattle game.

And, of course, this is where the rigging theories sprout. As much angst that is out there for the NFCCG, the Panthers should have a major bone to pick with how their game against the Niners was officiated. There were ticky-tacky PFs all over the place. The problem there of course is some of those calls went against the 49ers. The play at the end of the 1st half is a glaring example of the complete ineptness of the crew. As time was winding down, Kaepernick threw what appeared to be a touchdown to VD. The refs signalled incomplete, but the clock kept running. Harbaugh, bless his soul, was curious as to why the clock was running on the incpmplete pass. As the clock got closer to 0, the more animated Harbaugh got. That he had to go 15 yards onto the field to TELL the ref to stop the clock isn’t an indictment of the craziness of Harbaugh, but an indictment of the shitty job the refs did on the play. They were fine with letting the clock run out and for halftime to start. Much like the Pats Broncos game where Gronkowski was interfered with on the last play, a flag was thrown and picked up, and the refs ran off the field with no explanation or clarification. Game over.

And that’s the rub. These refs make a shitload of bad calls, but I don’t see any rhyme or reason to it. Sometimes it seems to favor the hometown (hello Denver), but to me, it’s institutional ineptitude, not any kind of intentional (or sinister) malfeasance.

Yes, I’m a baseball fan, and an ardent Giants fan going way back. But football is, was, and will always be my first sports love. The 49ers of my youth were juuust about to hit the big time when I became a fan starting in 1968 as a 7 year old. Dick Nolan had taken over, and he was installing his idea of the defense that his mentor Tom Landry was installing in Dallas. The Niners did have some recently drafted talent in Gene Washington from Stanford, and a solid 3-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust running game behind Ken Willard. That defense was very good, yet the offense never really got over the hump despite the efforts of Ted Kwalick, Washington, Dick Whicher and others. Plus, I was always a better football player than baseball player! Good field, no hit.

Anyhow, here we are at the precipice of a familiar cliff. 3 trips to the promised land, and 3 trips left agonizingly short. We’ve already talked about the draft needs and the free agents we should re-sign (Boldin and Dawson top my list, among others), the reasons we have come up tantalizingly close, and the ways to get better. This close to the end of it all is a terrible place to be. But here are the important upcoming dates for the 2014 NFL season:

Feb. 8-9
Regional Combine – Houston.

Feb. 17
Teams can begin designated free agents as “franchise players.”

Feb. 19-25
Scouting Combine – Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis.

Feb. 22
Regional Combine – Costa Mesa, Calif.

March 8-11
Teams can begin negotiating – but can’t finalize a contract – with the certified agents of players who will become unrestricted free agents at 1 p.m. PT on March 11. Before this time, teams must:
•exercise 2014 option clauses in the 2013 contracts of players.
•submit qualifying offers to their restricted free agents.
•submit a minimum salary tender to retain negotiating rights with players who have expiring contracts and less than three full seasons of experience.
•be under the 2014 salary cap.
March 11
Free agency begins.

March 23-26
Annual owners meeting – Orlando, Fla.

April 12-13
Super Regional Combine – Detroit.

April 21
Teams with returning head coaches may begin off-season workout programs.

May 2
Deadline for restricted free agents to sign offer sheets.

May 7
Deadline for teams to exercise right of first refusal to their restricted free agents.

May 8-10
NFL Draft – New York, Radio City Music Hall.

July
Supplemental Draft

Teams report to Training Camp a maximum of 15 days before their first preseason game.

July 15
Free agents previously designated as “franchise players” must be signed to multi-year contracts by 1 p.m. PT, or they’re only eligible to be signed to one-year deals.

Sept 4
Kickoff!

Well, Super Bowl XLVIII hits the books as yet another beat-down of perennial SB whipping boys, the Denver Broncos. From the opening snap safety (50/1 odds on that happening) to the end of the 4th quarter, the Seattle Seahawks dominated the game in all phases. This game really brings to mind Super Bowl XIX where the 49ers faced off with the Miami Dolphins. For 2 weeks all we heard about was Marino Marino Marino. He would blow the doors off the Niner defense and score at will. Joe of course had a Super Bowl win under his belt already, but that didn’t matter as it was all about Dan Marino. The defense certainly take kindly to the fact that they were seen as the cannon fodder for Marino to feast on, and I certainly wasn’t shocked when we took it to them hard.

This Super Bowl build up was all pretty much Peyton’s paradise. He would singlehandedly dismantle this band of defensive no-name thugs and carry the Broncos to victory over Seattle. My first thought after the disaster that was the NFC Championship game was that Seattle would obliterate the Broncos. After trying not to listen to the Super Bowl hype machine, even I succumbed to the relentless blather regarding Manning. I figured that this game wasn’t in  Seattle, therefore the noise wouldn’t be a factor, Manning gets the ball out fast, and that would thus render Seattle’s pass rush null and void, and getting Knowshon Moreno going would help things along. Stop Lynch, and there you go. Make Seattle one-dimensional and out-score them.

Sounds good, eh? Sure. Until the opening snap safety. Seattle had no problem ignoring Denver’s deep game and thus jammed everything 12 yards and under. This resulted in a lot of very short completions and no sustained drives. Denver got their first 1st down halfway through the 2nd quarter. While there were no sacks, Manning felt the pressure all day, and it caused 2 INTs and a fumble. I really thought this one was going to end up a shutout. In the end, Seattle’s defense outscored Denver’s offense 9-8. Crazy, but not that far-fetched.

Shit, now it’s the offseason.

I swore I just heard this: “Live from Head Lice stadium . . .” I’m forgoing the pre-game hype, but thought I’d throw up a thread anyway. The longer this down time goes on, the more I think the Peytons have a chance to win. I’ll say 27-20 Denver.

Shit, there are literally a million prop bets, but here’s a few weird/funny ones:

Times Mentioned During Broadcast
“12^th Man”: over/under 2 times (Over +100 | Under -140)
“Beast Mode”: over/under 2 times (Over +110 | Under -150)
21% chance announcers say “Marijuana” during the game (Yes +350 | No -600)
37% chance announcers mention Russell Wilson being drafted by MLB (Yes +150 | No -200)
Big Payoff Props
Seattle OR Denver shutout: 50/1
Seattle OR Denver score exactly two-points: 2500/1
7 or less points combined scored in Super Bowl: 200/1
Seattle scores 50 or more points: 30/1
Denver scores 50 or more points: 25/1
First offense play results in touchdown: 25/1
Manning throws for 6 or more TD passes: 20/1
Wilson throws 6 or more TD passes: 75/1
Wilson throws for more than 500 yards: 100/1
Manning throws for more than 500 yards: 18/1
Lynch rushes for more than 200 yards: 35/1

National Anthem

Over 2 minutes 25 seconds         48 % of money
Under 2 minutes 25 seconds       52% of money

How many times will Peyton Manning say “Omaha” during the game?

Over 27.5          60% of money
Under 27.5        40% of money

Crazy Props

23% chance Michael Crabtree mentions Richard Sherman in a tweet during the game (Yes +300 | No -500)

26% chance Knowshon Moreno cries during National Anthem (Yes +250 | No -400)

31% chance it will snow during the game (Yes +200 | No -300)

31% chance Erin Andrews will interview Richard Sherman live after the game (Yes +200 | No -300)

54% chance lowest temperature anytime during game is OVER 28 degrees (Yes -140 | +100)

56% chance temperature at kickoff OVER 32 degrees (Yes -150 | No +110)

Over/Under for number of people who will view the game: 112 million

Will the power go out in the stadium during the game: 20/1 against

First Bruno Mars song . . .
Locked out of Heaven: -125
Treasure: 3/1
Grenade: 11/2
Just the Way You Are: 9/1
Gorilla: 10/1
Marry You: 12/1
The Lazy Song: 12/1

MVP Speech will mention first . . .
Teammates: 2/1
damn ****: 5/2
Fans: 5/1
Other Team: 7/1
Coach: 12/1
Family: 12/1
Owner: 25/1
None of Above: 4/1

Since I’m not watching any of the pre Super Bowl mishmash of torrential bullshit being generated by ESPN and the like (although I did hear that Dick Sherman did say Peyton Manning throws like a girl or some shit) I’m of a mind to talk about the state of the Forty Niners. Think back to 3 years ago, and marvel at what has transpired. In January of 2011, the 49ers were a clusterf*ck of an organization. The team had numerous high draft picks and a talented defense, but could not play any kind of consistent offense and thus struggled to win. Aluminum Mike Singletary had been shown his walking papers, Mike Tomsula cemented his status as the Niner coach with the highest winning percentage in Niner history, and Young Jed was looking for a head coach.

In walks Jim Harbaugh, his Stanford coaches in tow, with an impressive track record of turning programs around in a hurry and laying down a solid plan for the future. In a dramatic turn of events, the Niners, with little training camp or practice time together, go 13-3 and lose a heartbreaking NFC Championship game to the NY Giants. Not bad for a 1st year coach. The 2nd year sees starting WB Alex Smith getting benched after recovering from a concussion in week 7. He never saw another start in a Niner uniform. It was a very bold move that was fraught with the potential to divide the team and lead to major problems. Colin Kaepernick of course lit the football world on fire and smoked the vaunted Chicago Bears defense on Monday Night Football. Season 2 of course ended up 5 yards short of the end zone in Super Bowl XLVII. This year saw a bit of a comedown for Kaepernick amid struggles around the red zone, lack of capable WRs, and Colin struggling with reads at times. And of course, another game that ended up 18 yards short of moving on to the Super Bowl.

So, 3 years, 3 NFC Championship games. A very enviable position that about 28 other teams would love to have. Problem is, we are 1-2 in those games with this current team and coaches. My question is, can this team as currently constructed win it all? The prevailing theory would seem to be an emphatic yes, but what is the issue at hand? What has stopped this team from getting over the hump? Is our quarterback too locked-in to the pre-snap design of a given play? Is there room for him to do a better job of reading coverages and looking off defenders? Is Kaepernick showing too much bravado by trying to force a pass past Dick Sherman to make him look bad? Will this be an ongoing issue with him? Were his struggles due to all the injuries to the WRs? Is the lack of a speed WR that big a deal?

How about the coaches? The lack of imagination in the passing game, and the year-long insistence to run out of the jumbo formation seemed to hinder the team at times. The chaotic scene of just trying to get a play off in time was a critical problem. Conservative red zone play calling, and lack of the killer instinct led to many close games. The red zone offense scored TDs 53% of the time. Good enough for 15th in the league. The run game worked against lesser opponents but stalled out against the tougher teams. The pass blocking was atrocious at times, and the passing game was all over the place. Are the coaches restricting Kaepernick’s reads? Still and all, 12-4 and another NFC Championship game. Yes, we have the pieces. Especially on defense.

How do we get over the top? Well, I think there needs to be a fundamental change in the passing game philosophy. While the run game appears to be a well-oiled maching at times, it was stymied by Seattle, Indy, and Carolina. When that was stopped, the Niners couldn’t respond with a passing attack that relieved the pressure on them. The passing game works sometimes, but it also can be maddeninly inconsistent. The biggest problem I have is that Jim Harbaugh has forgotten one of Bill Walsh’s tenets of a successful passing game. Put the quarterback in a position to make a successful pass on every attempt. This certainly wasn’t the case last season. When teams take away your run game, they WILL go after the passer. The 49ers did nothing to counteract incessant pass rushes. No screens, very few quick slants. No hot reads. No adjustments at the line. Just the same slow-developing 12 yard outs, and the occasional deep fade. They rarely gave Kaepernick an outlet when he was forced to break contain. The coaches wanted Colin to be a pocket passer, and seemed to want him to hang in the pocket longer, but all this resulted in were sacks. When he did start running more later in the season, it was very effective. So, I don’t think the coaches really know what to do at this point.

What I think they should do is start getting the team to pass protect better. Which means no more jumbo. All this does is let teams crowd the line. The base offense should be a 3 WR, one RB set. Quicker pass plays. Throw slants. Quick plays that get 5-7 yards on 1st down. How many 2 yard runs did we see on 1st down in the jumbo this year? 500? How many 3-and-outs were generated by shitty 1st down calls? If you go 2nd and 8 a lot, teams lick their chops. The play calling is lacking in imagination. Especially in the red zone. Good teams took Gore away (for the most part), and were able to focus on Kaepernick to force mistakes. Yes, he made them. He owns his part of that. But, again, giving him safer places to throw the ball will help in the long run.

So, yes, I think we need a new offensive coordinator. And Jim Harbaugh needs to buy into the fact that he needs to loosen the reins with Kapernick, and allow a more progressive passing game to flourish with a more forward-thinking OC (hello Chris Ault). The defense has been good enough these past 5 years to win it all. It has been the offense that has been lacking.

Not that this will happen, but I get the sense around here that a lot of people won’t be particularly enthralled with this Super Bowl. And truth be told, I can’t see scalpers getting ANY action to sit in the freezing rain to watch this game. Leave it t0 Goodie Goodell to be so bold as to schedule a championship game in the beautiful winter of New Jersey. Governor Chris Christie is doing his part to help things along by putting a stranglehold on foot traffic to the stadium. If you are lucky enough to stay at a hotel next to Metlife Stadium, you can’t walk the quarter mile to the game. Your choices are getting a $150.00 parking pass, or taking a shuttle Seacaucus, buying a $51.00 bus ticket, and going back right where you started. So, you can drive a quarter mile for $150.00 or take a $51.00 3 minute bus ride. All in the name of security. Funny thing is, the NFL provides $0.00 for the security effort. Instead, they leave that up to the local loan sharks, uh, politicians to work out the logistics. So the city, county, and state taxpayers that pay for the security get hosed by their representatives, get gouged to park, and can’t walk to the game.

Beyond that, there’s a certain amount of who-gives-a-shit ness to this Super Bowl, at least in the Bay Area. Sure, there are some misguided Raider fans that would like to see nothing more than Peyton Manning’s head knocked clean off, but for the most part the Seahawks are teamona non grata around here. Frankly, they are pretty much disliked around the country. Richard Sherman did his team no favors with his ‘LOOK-AT-THE-GREATNESS-OF-ME!’ rant after the NFC Championship Game. And all the blather afterwards just made people across the country turn a jaundiced eye to the cheap-talking blowhards that are Pete Carroll and the Seahawks. True or not, that is the perception.

So what does it all mean? Well, I think this may affect the numbers/viewership of this game. The shitty weather and the fact that the Seahawks are either thought of as punks, or not thought of at all, will drive this game down in the ratings. The playoffs were a HUGE success ratings wise, but this looks to be a bit of a clunker. Sure, it’s a battle of the best offense vs the best defense, but 80% of the people watching the Super Bowl don’t know or care about that. Give them something like Niners/Denver, and the ratings would be much higher I’d think. Two storied franchises with 14 Super Bowls between them (had the Niners made it), Elway/Montana, yadda yadda yadda. Seattle? Grunge, plaid shirts, and slugs. No one gives a shit.

As bad as the NFCCG hurt, and as much as I wanted to see the Niners bury Peyton Manning and Co (I’ve hated the Broncos since the Craig Morton days), I’ll probably watch this game. Comnpletely rooting for Peyton Manning, of course. What about you guys? I’m sure you’ll watch some of it. If only for the commercials.

My hope? Yes, this sucked, but the Niners will win, Super Bowl IL (or is it XLIX?), Illin’ or Xlixin’ either way sounds pretty sick . . . AND they will win Super Bowl L in their new digs to be the first home team to win their Super Bowl since the Niners beat Miami in Super Bowl XIX at Stanford. Anyone here go to that game? Just watched the highlights of it last night. Beautiful stuff. Eric Wright’s int as the ball whistles through the fog was epic.

In an ongoing attempt to not think about the recent past, we do have our draft seedings set in stone. In an amazingly particluar order, here they are:

1. 1st round: own – No. 30
2. 2nd round: Chiefs (Alex Smith trade) – No. 24
3. 2nd round: own – No. 29
4. 3rd round: Titans (2013 draft trade) – No. 13
5. 3rd round: own – No. 30
6. 3rd round: Compensatory (Dashon Goldson)
7. 4th round: own – No. 29
8. 5th round: own – No. 30
9. 6th round: own – No. 29
10. 7th round: Colts (Cam Johnson trade) – No. 26
11. 7th round: Saints (Parys Haralson trade) – No. 27
12. 7th round: Panthers (Colin Jones trade) – No. 28
13. 7th round: own – No. 30

All our picks are at the lower end of every round, but we have a lot of ammo to move up if need be. That being said, what are our greatest needs?

Draft order for need, I think:

Cornerback
Wide Receiver
Center
Outside Linebacker
Guard
Quarterback
Wide Receiver
Defensive End
Tight End
Fullback

I don’t see us drafting more than 10. What do you think our biggest needs are?