Not that this will happen, but I get the sense around here that a lot of people won’t be particularly enthralled with this Super Bowl. And truth be told, I can’t see scalpers getting ANY action to sit in the freezing rain to watch this game. Leave it t0 Goodie Goodell to be so bold as to schedule a championship game in the beautiful winter of New Jersey. Governor Chris Christie is doing his part to help things along by putting a stranglehold on foot traffic to the stadium. If you are lucky enough to stay at a hotel next to Metlife Stadium, you can’t walk the quarter mile to the game. Your choices are getting a $150.00 parking pass, or taking a shuttle Seacaucus, buying a $51.00 bus ticket, and going back right where you started. So, you can drive a quarter mile for $150.00 or take a $51.00 3 minute bus ride. All in the name of security. Funny thing is, the NFL provides $0.00 for the security effort. Instead, they leave that up to the local loan sharks, uh, politicians to work out the logistics. So the city, county, and state taxpayers that pay for the security get hosed by their representatives, get gouged to park, and can’t walk to the game.
Beyond that, there’s a certain amount of who-gives-a-shit ness to this Super Bowl, at least in the Bay Area. Sure, there are some misguided Raider fans that would like to see nothing more than Peyton Manning’s head knocked clean off, but for the most part the Seahawks are teamona non grata around here. Frankly, they are pretty much disliked around the country. Richard Sherman did his team no favors with his ‘LOOK-AT-THE-GREATNESS-OF-ME!’ rant after the NFC Championship Game. And all the blather afterwards just made people across the country turn a jaundiced eye to the cheap-talking blowhards that are Pete Carroll and the Seahawks. True or not, that is the perception.
So what does it all mean? Well, I think this may affect the numbers/viewership of this game. The shitty weather and the fact that the Seahawks are either thought of as punks, or not thought of at all, will drive this game down in the ratings. The playoffs were a HUGE success ratings wise, but this looks to be a bit of a clunker. Sure, it’s a battle of the best offense vs the best defense, but 80% of the people watching the Super Bowl don’t know or care about that. Give them something like Niners/Denver, and the ratings would be much higher I’d think. Two storied franchises with 14 Super Bowls between them (had the Niners made it), Elway/Montana, yadda yadda yadda. Seattle? Grunge, plaid shirts, and slugs. No one gives a shit.
As bad as the NFCCG hurt, and as much as I wanted to see the Niners bury Peyton Manning and Co (I’ve hated the Broncos since the Craig Morton days), I’ll probably watch this game. Comnpletely rooting for Peyton Manning, of course. What about you guys? I’m sure you’ll watch some of it. If only for the commercials.
My hope? Yes, this sucked, but the Niners will win, Super Bowl IL (or is it XLIX?), Illin’ or Xlixin’ either way sounds pretty sick . . . AND they will win Super Bowl L in their new digs to be the first home team to win their Super Bowl since the Niners beat Miami in Super Bowl XIX at Stanford. Anyone here go to that game? Just watched the highlights of it last night. Beautiful stuff. Eric Wright’s int as the ball whistles through the fog was epic.
Forty Niners Forever 
We could be the Rams, Cards, Vikings, Bears, Bucs, Falcons, Patties, Skins, Giants, Raiders, Texans, Jags, Titans, Ravens, Steelers, Bengals, Browns, Jets, Fins, or Bills.
All have crap, once good now playing like crap, injury prone question marks, choke artists, or nothing at all (Browns, Vikings).
To judge where Kap fits in the next tier, the Niners would have to be otherwise mediocre. With their D and kickers, it’s just speculation.
Then there’s Aaron, Peyton, and the future president. Kappy’s value to me then is somewhere 4-12.
I’m biased towards the high end of that given his enormous success in so little time. You make the call.
(I’ll be watching The Puppy Bowl. I hope they’ll be watching for Intentional Growling.)
Christ, no fear. WhEn manning loses it’s everyone else’s fault. When romo throws a late pick to lose a game it isn’t his fault. Its what I find so funny. Depending on the name of the QB your opinions differ wildly.
But its not a screed, lol. I dont follow all the opinions around here that closely so cant really comment on inconsistencies
Hey, we were already good enough to go to the NFC conference game. The whole point of replacing Alex with Colin was to be better and good enough to finish those games at the QB spot.
The difference is I don’t call every loss by the Niners a Kaepernick choking as usual. or in big games, or in cold weather or any of the other ridiculous generalizations folks use to slam those two guys. They’ve both earned their spots and have carried their teams to wins in spite of poor supporting casts. Kaepernick has a ways to go yet.
As I’ve said before, I was touting Kaepernick to you when you were still in the bag for Smith. Now that you’ve come to my point of view you’re going to hammer on me for criticizing him? He made a bad play where he could have won the game. If that was Romo or Manning you would have called them chokers. Have you called Kaepernick a choker? Always the popularist. Do you find that funny, too?
Shit, you sound like Bullit. You want the glory? Yay NoFear. I said it was a ballsy move based on the fact players usually didn’t lose their job due to injury. I didn’t agree with it, but it was what it was. Did it work out?
To say Kappy has to get further than Smith is the argument you railed on Twin for. There’s no way to know who would have done what since the die was cast. If they replaced Kappy with Smith in the 4th quarter would that have worked?
Chuck, you’re such a phony blowhard. Nobody cares about “the glory” except you. That’s your deal. You said plenty about Smith keeping his job. You and your baseball buddies were all over Harbaugh and what an asshole and idiot he would be to replace Smith. Now you won’t let anyone say anything about Harbaugh or Kaepernick? You’d do better to just STFU instead of trying to twist and spin everything to make it look like you were almost right in those times when you’re just dead wrong. Besides hopping on and off so many bandwagons so fast you’re always in danger of falling under the wheels.
12th man, I think you may be filling in a lot of gaps between what we see on the field and what we know about what was called and who called it with Kaepernick held to as little responsibility as possible. You’re certainly entitled to your opinion, too.
Kaepernick couldn’t know that Sherman wouldn’t drop into zone coverage and the safety cover the deep corner fade or even blitz before the snap. If the pre-snap reads dictate the throw no matter what happens this offense and all its coaches belong coaching high school ball or maybe less. I just don’t buy it. Of course they try to get favorable matchups but the defense gets a vote, too. If they don’t get the matchup they want then what? Kaep has to call a timeout and check with Harbaugh?
It’s just as possible that the defense knew CK7 would be suckered by the man-up on Crabs and set him up for that INT. Knowing Carroll’s belief in his own defensive smarts I think that’s quite likely.
At the same time Kaepernick calls an audible at the LOS and fans are beside themselves thinking Kaepernick just gave the finger to the coaches and ran the play his way. I don’t know where some of this stuff comes from.
As for the o-line, take a look at Football Outsiders offensive lines analyses. Worse than I thought.
You may well be right NF, it’s just how it looks to me.
LOL, Well, right or wrong I think we’re both clear on the other’s view now anyway.
I did look at FO, you’re right it’s not good.
How so?
Hey Phil, well this is how I see it.
Each position on the line gets ranked for pass pro and run blocking. Very surprisingly at least to me is how low the line graded out compared to their position on the other 31 teams. Injury played a part in that with Iupati but a telling stat is how often the running play was stuffed.
It means that the opposing D beat the O line into the backfield and got to the RB.
One of the reasons is that the formation invites 8 and 9 guys into the box which leaves the O line outnumbered quite often. Also it is up to the RB to make a play too, think Lynch in Seattle with our D lineman getting to him but still making positive yards.
But NF has a valid point, if the opposing D gets into the backfield significantly then the run game isn’t going far.
Yeah I’m fond of the Puppy Bowl. Those puppies put on a good show.
WOOF!
How much should CK be paid per year? How long a deal? What other continencies are there? Guaranteed money? Let’s do a wild ass guess-a-thon on “How much per year / how long a deal?”
Phil sez: 16M/yr for 6 years 50M guaranteed.
I have no idea what the BS part of the contract would look like because they make it up to look like it is a block buster contract for publicity purposes.
The real part of it I would guess 4/16 with performance escalators (winning SB?) built in all guaranteed.
Okay collecting and saving all these until the truth be told
4/64 sounds about right. I’m not exactly clear on how they defer or spread out the cap hit, but I’d see like $35 mill guaranteed. I guess the length of the contract can lessen the year-to-year hit.
Maybe NoFear has the contractual info more nailed down. I don’t.
NoFear, does your own narrative of how you think I act just run through your brain? I’ve criticized Harbaugh among all the lame-ass play calls in the red zone. I said the deal to bench Alex had a huge risk to blow up in his and the team’s face. I didn’t think it was a good idea. So, that means what? Only you have the right to discuss it. Who am I stopping from talking about it? What part of ‘I think they can design a better passing game’ is heresy? Fox news has nothing on you, skippy. Are you this paranoid all the time?
My guess on the contract is they front load it somewhat, maybe a signing bonus type situation to lessen the year by year cap hit but that the actual money is equivalent to 16/4
If Baalke can pull off less than that he will have earned his keep. He did manage 2 #2 for Alex Smith, way above what I figured he could get so maybe he is a snake charmer.
Just my 2¢
Incidentally, if only 35 mil is guaranteed over 4 then it is the same as Alex Smith was making in his final year with the Niners and his first year with the Chiefs. I would expect him to pull in 12 mil +- salary after his signing bonus.
Does that make 4¢ now?
Yes 4 centabos however we are playing with Chucks house money and the budget is large. Carry on
Smith made $8 mill his last yesar here, and his 1st in KC. This is double that. Smith had no guarantee past the 1st year as well. Which was why we were able to trade him.
Maybe I’m not following you. Smith made 8 + 1 roster bonus his last year and 8 at KC so 8.5 aggregate. 8.5 x 4 years is 34 mil, almost the 35 mil guaranteed you mentioned or did I miss your point?
Incidentally and not directly related but for perspective, Larry Fitzgerald will pick up 13 mil guaranteed this season as a WR.
I’m saying he gets a 4 year 64 mill extension (16 mill a year), 35 mill of which is guaranteed money.
Ok got it.
Kilgore arrested.
http://blog.sfgate.com/49ers/2014/01/31/report-niners-ol-kilgore-arrested-for-public-intoxication/
I’m not condoning this but if he and his friend are walking home drunk but otherwise behaving themselves should they be arrested for it? How about give them a ride home or call a cab for them, get them to call a friend? Why arrest them as criminals?
I dunno but sometimes I shake my head.
As for Kilgore, getting arrested and some bad publicity when he is in competition with Looney and who knows who else for a starting job is dumb.
If the report is accurate it seems like a tough luck deal. But maybe the LEO had a good reason to want them off the streets.
Could be but is arrest the only way or even the appropriate way to achieve it?
Back in the old days walking home was preferred to driving home if you had a few too many. Arrest for walking home isn’t something I remember happening as long as you were peaceable. Loud singing and not stopping when told to might get you a night in the clink but again not usually an arrest, just toss you in a cell and kick your hung over ass out in the morning.
Obviously I don’t have all the facts but if the report is correct I don’t agree with arrest for it.
Simplistically, the guaranteed money such as the signing bonus and all bonuses treated like signing bonus can be spread over the length of the contract for cap accounting purposes, regardless of when it’s paid to the player. Some bonuses could be tied to the roster so not payable if cut but generally if it’s a six year deal 30 million guaranteed can hit the cap at 5 million per year. If the guy gets cut early all the money that didn’t hit the cap yet hits it next year.
Besides the amortized cap hit the player’s salary and workout/roster bonus could add to the yearly total hit. Many times the contract is written with higher salaries in the later years (increased at max of 30% per year IIRC) knowing that the contract won’t live that long.
For example a yearly salary of 5M, 5M, 6M, 8M, 10.5M, 13.7M, 18M. Written in but knowing those last years aren’t going to happen without restructure. Guaranteed money is the only thing that matters. Those last years give the team more years to spread the cap hit and more dollars in the contract to make the player and agent happier.
That’s my basic understanding too, hence not predicting the BS portion of the contract.
Do you have a prediction what the real part of his contract may be?
I read something this AM about Kaepernick rightfully expecting to best the contract Alex gets in KC if he gets one. I think that makes the most sense provided Alex is not paid some ridiculous sum.
If it was me I’d make the deal fair but make more earnable by performance and staying healthy. I don’t really have a good sense of what fair is at this point.
Well, that’s the problem. With Jerry Jerkoff giving Romo a zillion dollars, and Jay Cultet getting his astronomical salary, what is fair? The franchise value for QBs will be close to 20 mill. I say 16 because if falls in the range of upper echelon, but isn’t too too crazy. Then again, it isn’t my money.
Thanlks for the salary cap post, NoFear.
New thread is up, BTW.
Yeah I read that piece, it was from an ex agent who writes for NFP but it was just his opinion, not something Kap has asked for or was involved in.
I do see that POV as a floor for negotiations meaning certainly not less than Smith would get but beyond that I don’t see how Smiths contract affects Kap. Different styles of play and different ability ceilings.
That was the same writer who brought up not signing Aldon to an extension this year even though it’s his last but to add the optional 5th year to the existing contract until Aldon proves himself from a behavioural standpoint. I agree with that entirely.
Sounds right. The only way it affects CK7’s deal is it’s a marker in the sea of relativity of ridiculously huge football QB contracts that the agent can use. I remember that self-described “team guy” Emmitt Smith holding out while his team was losing games because he had to have more money than Thurman Thomas or he wasn’t coming back.
Aldon, yeah, you’ve got to be careful with a guy like that. You don’t know if he needs a pat on the back or a kick in the ass, so to speak.
Shades of Crabtree when he came out refusing to take the slot money and demanding higher pick money or holding out. Fat lot of good that did him.