Forty Niners Forever

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but what in the wide wide world of sports is going on here? Does anyone really know what time it is? Does anybody really care? Has the time come today (ooooh another cool somg to post. 60’s funk!)? Is it 25 or 6 to 4? Is this the end, beautiful friend?

What I’m referring to of course is the 49ers offense and it’s recent lack of ability to get over the hump and into the promised land. One can safely say that the Niners could have been Super Bowl winners these past 3 years with a couple of non-turnovers, and some better play clock management. And I ain’t going to rehash those plays.

What I want to address is, what is this team going to DO about the issues that keep dogging this team? To me, the big issues are:

• Play clock management
• The red zone offense
• The passing game

Since the Nolan era came to be, the Niners used a play calling system that was basically this. 2 plays are given to the QB. A run play and a pass play. A primary and a backup. If the primary play is to be run, the call is roll roll. If they are to go with the backup, you hear kill kill kill. These are strictly pre-snap reads. Problem is, in a loud stadium, it’s hard to get one play in from the press box to the field, and then to the QB, let alone 2 plays. This often leads to the play clock running dangerously close to running out on about 75% of the plays during a game. This even happens at home. Like the 2nd and goal in the Super Bowl. Shit, I didn’t want to do that. This nagging problem has transcended 3 coaching staffs and myriad players, coaches, OCs, QBs, and HCs.

The red zone offense?  Well, the Niners were 15th in red zone scoring percentage at 53%. Certainly not terrible, but waaay behind successful teams like Denver and Cincy at 72%. Fat lot of good it did them, but for a team like the Niners, scoring at a brisker clip would put a lot less pressure on the offense. Kicking FGs and leaving so many games in the balance at the very end leaves one susceptible to late killer turnovers.

The passing game? Well, far be it from me to complain, but Jesus Christ, let’s get out of the stone age. 1-2 WR sets are a thing of the distant past.  Inviting teams to pack the box against the run does little to help the run game OR the passing game. If you run-blitz on a pass play, you instantly have at least 2 guys unblocked in the backfield. Brilliant when you are trying to disguise a pass play.  If you run blitz on a run, you more than likely stop that play as well. Inviting teams to play everyone up close to the line of scrimmage should open up the deep passing game, but for some reason, the Niners rarely ever pull that trigger. Whether through lack of talent, feare of turnovers, or lack of throwing time, they just don;t so it near enough to keep defenses honest.

 The prevailing sentiment is, why mess with success? Gore has put up big numbers. They win games at a steady clip. 36-11-1 (and a 5-3 playoff record) in 3 years is no mean feat. But, success measured how? Yes, we came out of the dark ages with the hire of Jim Harbaugh, but all we have gotten is tantalizingly close to the trophy. So, while reaching the NFC Championship 3 years in a row is a great thing, falling short 3 years in a row isn’t.

So, what now? The defense isn’t going to be better than it was last year with the loss of Donte Whitner and the Navorro Bowman injury, among the loss of Terell Brown, and the possible suspensions of Aldon Smith and Chris Culliver. So that leaves the offense to pick up the slack. Use more formations that spread the field out. Use 3-4 WRs from time to time. THere’s no need to go Mouse Davis here, but certainly they can stop using multiple WR formations on more than just 3rd down.   For too long we’ve dictated exactly how to stop our offense. Against teams like Tennessee and Houston, we can impose our will on them. Other times, not so much.

The (somewhat) good news is that Jim Harbaugh has specifically pointed to these very things as issues they need to work on this year. Even in the OTAs, Kappy was working on plays into the end zone (GASP!) from the red zone.  Something I hope they actually do. He also talked of scrapping the 2-plays-in-the-huddle deal and giving more control to Kappy at the line to determine the play to run. Harbaugh even went so far as to talk about using more 3 WR sets on OTHER than 3rd down.

Yay! Let’s hope it ain’t simply lip service.

Truth of the matter is, I think this talk of opening things up is directly related to the fact that they HAVE fallen short in these 3 seasons, and that Harbaugh wants to cash in. Without a Super Bowl This year (my definition of success), then they will be hard-pressed to throw the money at him that he wants.

So, between the NFLPA and Jolly Roger & Co, the NFL has a very structured approach to how the season starts, what happens in these initial gatherings, and who is allowed to do what to whom, Organized Team Activities have started. All this means is the offense walking through plays without pads, no hitting, but defenders kinda standing around providing obstacles. One thing I did hear about was Kappy, Boldin, Crabs, and Lloyd working on the red zone offense. Whether they scored or not wasn’t reported.

The only news coming out of these OTAs so far is the fact that Alex Boone and Vernon Davis haven’t shown up. Boone has voiced his concerns with his contract status right now, and is angling for a raise and extension. Vernon Davis’s absence is not clear at this point, but as of now since these OTAs are voluntary, this isn’t too alarming. But this doesn’t paint a picture of a team totally in harmony either. The rumblings around 4949 Centennial Blvd. is that Colin Kaepernick is looking to break the bank in his desire for a new contract. Is this a factor in Boone and possibly Vernon Davis suddenly wanting to get theirs before Kappy absorbs all the free money laying around the building? This is certainly a possibility. And this also follows along with the fact that Kappy’s signing would preclude keeping guys like Michael Crabtree and Mike Iupati, among others, as their contracts are coming due. Something we’ve all discussed for the last few months. To throw another wrench into the Kappy negotiations, Alex Smith apparently wants $18 mill a year, although his wife (!) has come out and said this is a false claim.

Since nothing is set in stone with the Kappy deal, there’s a ton of uncertainty right now with who can sign and when, not to mention the legal wrangling around Kappy, Aldon Smith, and Chris Culliver. Add the Harbaugh trade to Cleveland, and all the supposed animosity between Harbaugh and Trent Baalke and you have another layer of strange. As far as the rookies go, most are signed, with the exception of Marcus Martin, the center from USC. So, even though it’s the beginning of a brand new season, there’s a lot of weirdness floating around Santa Clara.

The future is now for a lot of the team as it is currently structured. They are poised to once again make a push for the Super Bowl, they have a strong team and a brand new stadium to fill, but a bad season could derail Harbaugh’s job, could concievably drive Kappy among a lot of other players out of here, and could send the team into a death spiral. If there’s any constant in the NFL it’s that it is VERY hard to stay relevant for any length of time, and it is very easy to slip from the perch of being a top-tier team. 

The 49ers are at least getting their newly drafted players into the fold. 8 of the 12 draft picks, including 1st rounder Jimmie Ward, have signed.  Which means in the least that there will be a lot of fighting for roster spots. Sure, most of the available spots are for 2nd-3rd string, or special teams, but still, competition makes the team grow stronger. Hopefully.

Granted, Jimmie Ward has a golden ticket to the slot/nickel CB spot, much like Eric Reid last year being handed the keys to the free safety position. One can hope the transition is as seamless for Jimmie as it was for Eric. Other than that, Bethea takes over for Whitner, Ellington takes over for the remarkably-still-on-the-team-but-not-for-long LMJ (who showed up for OTAs today), Marcus Martin joins the battle for the center position with Looney and Kilgore Trout, Brtandon Thomas looks to replace Mike Iupati, and Carlos Hyde becomes the possible heir-apparent to Frank Gore. Marcus Lattimore may have something to say about that, though.

The rest, and the UDFAs, are scrambling for precious few spots. We’ll likely revamp the taxi squad as well. Harbaugh (or someone) said that the team will more than likely only carry 2 QBs on the roster. Which makes the fight between Beth-el, Gabbert, and Josh Johnson a fight to the death. UDFA Kory QB Falkner will more than likely go to the PS.

The one position I really thought they’d look to upgrade is WR. Although Ellington is a speed-burner, his value for now is as a kick/punt returner. He’d come in to the WR battle as 5th on the depth chart behind Boldin, Crabs, Stevie Wonder, and Quinton Patton. Oh, yeah, and Brandon Lloyd. Although I think the fight for the #3 WR will rub out one of either Johnson or Lloyd. Maybe he can pass QP and be the deep threat we so desperately need.

Other than that, it’s backup LB, backup CB and backup DE spots being determined. Let the fun begin . . .

Well, news has slowed to a trickle these days regarding the 49ers, and the NFL in general, so let’s revisit the police blotter. Aldon Smith is scheduled to reappear in court for his three felony weapons charges and the misdemeanor DUI charge on Wednesday. Due to the two continuances already done, one would think that the lawyers are plea-bargaining their way to lesser charges all around. I’m sure they will remove the felony charges as they have to prove that Aldon knew he was intentionally buying illegal weapons. Hard to prove intent and foreknowledge when you just say ‘I thought they were cool, so I bought them.’

As far as the DUI goes, unless something comes out like he was drunk at the time of his arrest for the bomb threat deal, something alluded to but not tested for or noted in LAX, he should be fine with time served, and the voluntary 5 game suspension last year. As far as that airport thing goes, which Smith denies using the word ‘bomb,’ the LA city attorney’s office has yet to file any charges themselves. Whether LA is waiting for the other shit to be resolved first remains to be seen.

Smith, for his part, is in camp and working with the team. He’s saying some version of the truth will come out and paint a picture that isn’t as bad as it appears. I’d think there would be some action taken by the NFL, but I think it’ll be 2-4 games instead of 4-6. Possibly even no suspension and community service, but I’d say 4 games max, 2 likely. FOr his part, Jolly Roger said “The issue here is not to discipline players. The issue here is to stop the behavior. And aldon, to your point, has voluntarily said, ‘I need help.’ We are obviously there to support him and the 49ers did a great job getting him into a facility to try to get that help. And so, we all support that.” Not that I know the first thing about him, but everyone who has talked to him, whether inside the team or outside, including Ronnie Lott, have said he’s a good kid who  simply got overwhelmed by the vagaries of fame and money. He’s not a (his words) thug or a bad guy. Just a hard-working guy who got caught up in the hysteria.  

Kappy and Miami Vice? Nothing new from that. The charges should likely be dropped entirely as nothing new has come from Jesus or the others involved. The talk around Kappy Kapperson now is the fact that the Niners are still pushing to get a deal done with him before training camp starts July 27th. The numbers bandied about are truly scary, and he seems to want Flacco money ($20 mill per year) despite losing to Flacco in the Super Bowl, and coming up short with a truly shitty 4th quarter vs Seattle. I think something like 5/$100 mill – $40 mill guaranteed is inevitable. They’ll likely get it done early July.

As far as Grand Theft Auto’s newest NFL tie-in star Chris Culliver, and his five charges goes (felony hit and run, felony reckless driving with injury, felony possession of brass knuckles, misdemeanor hit and run and misdemeanor driving on a suspended license), I’m sure this will all be settled out of court (cha-ching!!) and the charges dropped. At most, community service and anger management classes.

In other news that tangentally affects the 49ers, Chicago Bears WR Brandon Marshall has signed a 3 year $30 million extension. Thus setting a hard ceiling for Michael Crabtree. For all the money Crabs thinks he’s worth, there’s no way he’s better than Marshall Marshall Marshall. These contract talks with Crabs look to be very interesting depending on how well he does this season. I think he’s a goner anyway, but what the Niners did in the draft don’t make me think they feel that way. But based on his original contract dealings, I see some animosity on the horizon.

Newly acquired local boy WR (born in SF, raised in Fairfield, and an alum of Chabot College) Stevie Johnson recently said that the Niners at this point have “four #1 recievers.” Including himself in the VD, Crabs, and Anquan Boldin mix. Funny thing is, he’s kinda right. They’ve all put up 1,000 yard seasons over the years (well, VD has reached 900+ a couple times), and all have had solid seasons.

The issue here is, stop me if you’ve heard this before, is whoever they designate as #3, will that guy get on the field more than 25% of the time? Because that is the fate of most 49er 3rd string WRs. Ted Ginn recently held that distinction, and was limited to basically a mop-up role. Last year, everybody was hurt, and or Kyle Williams, so the Niners got nothing out of the 3rd string guy.

Using 2012 as the last season where we had a fairly healthy WR corps, Randy Moss was the 3. 28 catches, 435 yards, 3 TDs. Not horrible by any stretch, but does anyone here feel he was used as much as he should have been? In 2011 our 3 (KW) caught 20 balls.  Last year? Well, we had 3s that were pretty much number twos. Turds. Guys who could not get open. Just flipping through Pro-football-reference.com shows that most 3s get something like 50, 600 yards. And I’m not hitting teams like Atl or NE where their 3s get around 60, 750.

Which brings us to the present. The sounds coming out of 4949 Centennial Blvd are that Harbaugh understands he needs to open the sardine can. Teams are keying on the 1-2 WR formations as our run set and successfully stopping our run game, and thus setting up 3rd and long.  Beyond the fact that this has been a recurring problem since the Nolan/Hostler days, let me say, meh. We’ve all heard this before. From Norv Turner saying “Alex really gets it this year” to Singletary saying “Alex is doing really well throwing deep balls” to now Harbaugh saying “We need to integrate more 3 WR sets on 1st and 2nd down.” After the praise, the talk of opening things up and the like, we get Gore, Gore Gore.

The run game works against teams like Tennessee, Jacksonville, and the Rams (not any more), but this plan stalled out against Seattle, Indy, and NO. Teams that stuff our run game. What happens is the 49ers then face a lot of 3rd and long plays. Plays where the defense can blitz and force turnovers, sacks, and fumbles. Which is why the Niners are always near the top of the list for 3-and-out drives.  

So, to me this merely sounds like the chatter they always spout when talking about the upcoming season, and how different things will be. Seeing as their first priority for an offensive player in the draft this year was a running back, I don’t think things will change any time soon.  I fear that Stevie Wonder will be relegated to 15-20 plays a game, and 3-4 catches per if he’s lucky. Welcome back, Stevie. Hope you get on the field more than I think you will.

Here are the six guys the 49ers signed as UDFAs after the draft.

• Morgan Breslin, OLB, USC
• Asante Cleveland, TE, Miami
• Kory Faulkner, QB, Southern Illinois
• Fou Fonoti, OT, Michigan State
• Taylor Gabriel, WR, Abilene Christian
• LJ McCray, S, Catawba
• Shayne Skov, ILB, Stanford

Morgan Breslin, a highly touted pass rusher before getting injured, is in the news for hoping to cash in on his Lloyd’s of London insurance policy that states he would get a payout if an injury hindered his draft position. As a UDFA, I guess he can say his knee injury lowered his value.  Shayne Skov is another highy regarded player who was waylaid by injuries. Instead of going to the Raiders as a posible walk-on starter, he decided to come to the Niners to learn at the feet of the best guys in the business. Probably a good idea to get healthyed up and try to stick. Oft-injured Darius Fleming didn’t stick as he blew his knee out twice in a row.

LJ McCray is a small school guy who had some eye popping kick return numbers, and is a pretty solid safety to boot. He is also notable for being on NJ’s draft board as a possible late-round sleeper. Another small-school guy is QB Kory Faulkner, who Jim Harbaugh bumped into while scouting Jimmy Garapollo from Northern Illinois. The Souther Illinois QB was throwing alongside Jimmy, and Harbaugh liked him and asked for his tape. The rest is 3rd-string-QB history. I mean if you can’t beat out McLeod Bethel-Thompson . . .

Taylor Gabriel? Yikes, he’s tiny (5’8″ 165 lb) but he ran a blazing 4.28 40. He’s likely gunning for ST/KR/Gunner job, but he looks like he’d be fun to see out there at WR on occasion.

With the team loaded with talent, and the recently added 12 draftees, it’ll be tough for any of these guys to mnake the grade, but a couple should.

I’d bet on Skov and McCray.

1 (30). Jimmie Ward, defensive back, Northern Illinois
2 (57). Carlos Hyde, running back, Ohio State
3 (70). Marcus Martin, center, Southern California
3 (77). Chris Borland, inside linebacker, Wisconsin
3 (100). Brandon Thomas, offensive lineman, Clemson
4 (106). Bruce Ellington, wide receiver, South Carolina
4 (129). Dontae Johnson, cornerback, North Carolina State
5 (150). Aaron Lynch, defensive end/outside linebacker, South Florida
5 (170). Keith Reaser, cornerback, Florida Atlantic
6 (180). Kenneth Acker, cornerback, Southern Methodist
7 (243). Kaleb Ramsey, defensive end, Boston College
7 (245). Trey Millard, fullback, Oklahoma

Today’s festivities start at 3:30 pacific time.

To synopsize yesterday, no one is very happy thast Trent Baalke and the 49ers picked what is basically a 3rd down nickel DB in Jimmy Ward. It may not be terribly horrible if he’s on the field 75% of the time, as teams like the Rams will be throwing a lot, but I can’t see him taking down, say, Marshawn Lynch in the open field without being removed from the field with a spatula. Yes, there are a lot of teams that throw in the league, but there are also teams like Seattle who wear down teams by grinding games out. I don’t see Ward being a factor in the immediate, or even long-term future.

Let’s just say I agree to disagree at this point. But I ain’t too thrilled with Baalke right now.

And to summarize the draft today, the Niners hold the following picks:

2nd round – 24 – (56th overall – from KC)
2nd round – 29 – (61st overall)
3rd round – 13 – (77 overall – from the Tits)
3rd round – 30 – (94 overall – from the Tits)
3rd round – 36 – (100 overall – compensatory for Dashon Goldson) 

Round 2

Pick (overall)
1 (33). Houston Texans
2 (34). Washington Redskins
3 (35). Cleveland Browns
4 (36). Oakland Raiders
5 (37). Atlanta Falcons
6 (38). Tampa Bay Buccaneers
7 (39). Jacksonville Jaguars
8 (40). Minnesota Vikings
9 (41). Buffalo Bills
10 (42). Tennessee Titans
11 (43). New York Giants
12 (44). St. Louis Rams
13 (45). Detroit Lions
14 (46). Pittsburgh Steelers
15 (47). Dallas Cowboys
16 (48). Baltimore Ravens
17 (49). New York Jets
18 (50). Miami Dolphins
19 (51). Chicago Bears
20 (52). Arizona Cardinals
21 (53). Green Bay Packers
22 (54). Philadelphia Eagles
23 (55). Cincinnati Bengals
24 (56). San Francisco 49ers (from Kansas City Chiefs)
25 (57). San Diego Chargers
26 (58). New Orleans Saints
27 (59). Indianapolis Colts
28 (60). Carolina Panthers
29 (61). San Francisco 49ers
30 (62). New England Patriots
31 (63). Denver Broncos
32 (64). Seattle Seahawks

Round 3

Pick (overall)
1 (65). Houston Texans
2 (66). Washington Redskins
3 (67). Oakland Raiders
4 (68). Atlanta Falcons
5 (69). Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6 (70). Jacksonville Jaguars
7 (71). Cleveland Browns
8 (72). Minnesota Vikings
9 (73). Buffalo Bills
10 (74). New York Giants
11 (75). St. Louis Rams
12 (76). Detroit Lions
13 (77). San Francisco 49ers (from Tennessee Titans)
14 (78). Dallas Cowboys
15 (79). Baltimore Ravens
16 (80). New York Jets
17 (81). Miami Dolphins
18 (82). Chicago Bears
19 (83). Cleveland Browns (from Pittsburgh Steelers)
20 (84). Arizona Cardinals
21 (85). Green Bay Packers
22 (86). Philadelphia Eagles
23 (87). Kansas City Chiefs
24 (88). Cincinnati Bengals
25 (89). San Diego Chargers
26 (90). Indianapolis Colts
27 (91). New Orleans Saints
28 (92). Carolina Panthers
29 (93). New England Patriots
30 (94). San Francisco 49ers
31 (95). Denver Broncos
32 (96). Minnesota Vikings (from Seattle Seahawks)
33 (97). Pittsburgh Steelers (compensatory selection)
34 (98). Green Bay Packers (compensatory selection)
35 (99). Baltimore Ravens (compensatory selection)
36 (100). San Francisco 49ers (compensatory selection)

Well, here we are. The 2 week delay had come and (almost) gone. The 2014 NFL draft has arrived! The prognosticator and bloviators had 2 extra weeks to waffle endlessly about their picks and locks and sleepers and duds. Bullitt had 14 mini-heart attacks as he formally protested in front of NFL Headquarters regarding the world-wide pain and suffering caused by moving the draft back 2 weeks.

So, what can I say that hasn’t already been said? Shit, I don’t know. I will give major props to NJ49er (and his son), our east-coast stalwart and relentless fan for his work in drawing up his draft board. His work is all-encompassing and detailed, and I always learn a ton from the guys he brings up. As do the rest of you. So , thanks for all your contributions, guys and gals (and lurkers). So, kumbaya, motherf**kers.

The schedule is:

• Thursday 5:00 PM – ESPN & NFL Network – Round 1
• Friday 3:30 pm – ESPN & NFL Network – Rounds 2-3
• Saturday 9:00 AM – ESPN & NFL Network – Rounds 4-7

(All times pacific)

One stinking round the first day. That’s pretty lame. But it plays into the fact that Jolly Roger wants to stretch this out even longer next year.

 Anyhow, for shits and giggles, how about we do a Top 10 picks in the draft?

After minutes of hard work and thought, heeeeeeeeere’s mine:

1. Houston – Jadaveon Clowney. Best pass rusher ever out of the draft? Meh.
2. St. Louie – Jake Matthews.  Terrible protection has to get better now for the Rams.
3. Jax – Khalil Mack. Possibly the best guy in the draft.
4. Cleveland – Sammy Watkins. They’ll get Bridgewater to throw to him later.
5. Cracktown – Mike Evans. As much as they should build from within and draft T Greg Robinson, they can’t pass up ion a big fast WR.
6. Atlanta – Taylor Lewan. Not sexy, but Atl has 10 picks and needs to shore up their line.
7.  Tampax Bag – Blake Bortles. Johnny Football hype aside, Bortles is the mosat complete QB and should be good from the start.
8. Minnehaha – Aaron Donald. They’ve been all over this guy for weeks now.
9. Buffalo – Odell Beckham. EJ looked pretty good last year. They need a playmaker for him. ODB fits the bill. Hate to see him go before we get a shot.
10. Deetroit – Who cares? Anyway, the underachievers don’t need CBs so they pick the next best idea and grab TE Eric Ebron.

I think the Niners are definitely going to trade up. I just wonder how high. Trading with Balt at 17 is a possiblilty for the reasons already discussed. Walterfootball has us trading up to 11 with Tennessee. And picking ODB. Yowza. Dennis would drop dead on the spot. If we DO trade up that high, I’d rather get  Justin Gilbert or Kyle Fuller. Thing is, though, even if they trade to 17 for a better price, they can still grab someone like Dennard, or even one of the 2 guys above.  

So, lemme know who you think your top 10 picks are.

And not a moment too soon. Some folks are losing their collective shit regarding the delay around the 2014 draft. Apparently there was a scheduling conflict with some bumb-ass show that somehow already shut down because of shitty ticket sales. That’s what you get for screwing around with the draft. Personally, I think Jolly Roger Goodell was staging this as a test-bed for moving the draft later in the year to build his grand design of a year-round football season. Start free agency (and thus the new season) in early March to keep the fires stoked for all things football.  As much as everyone including Spuds MacKenzie loves everything football, turns out a little down time isn’t so bad either. I don;t think Goodie Goodell will get his changes any time soon.

I don’t know or care if the delay is a big problem in the real world, but in Bloggoland, you’d think they were moving Christmas to July.

All the extra two weeks brought us was two more weeks of Mel Kiper’s unholy head of hair plastered across my big screen TV. Two more weeks of bizarre NFL Network programming of strange-but-true draft stories. Who knew the draft of 1964 (which netted the 49ers one of my favorite players to wear the red and gold, Dave Wilcox) would produce 10 NFL Hall of Fame players, and one Hall of Fame coach?

I didn’t. I think we all know what the 49ers needs are in the draft. CB, WR, CB, SS, DT, QB, G, C, RB, QB, DE. Something like that.