Happy Holidays from the Forty Niners
Well, the Niners weathered the game they desperately needed to win to keep their tenuous grasp on the #2 seed, and maintained their 1.5 game lead on the resurgent Seattle Seahawks. Now they hit the road for their next challenge. New England. On the road. In December. Usually that means terrible weather, but strangely enough, the game time temp was 59º last night in Foxborough. Somehow I don’t think the Niners will get that lucky next Sunday.
Most of the punditry out there is giving this one to NE. And rightfully so. This team made the Super Bowl last year, and was a Hail Mary (and 2 feet) from winning it with a crappier defense. Even still, NE is 29th in pass defense, and 8th vs the run (26th in the league). Similar to what they just faced vs Miami. The biggest difference being NE leads the league with 34 takeaways (15 picks, 19 fumbles) and has only turnovers themselves (5 picks, 5 fumbles). NE isn’t great at getting sacks, but their D line is stout and hard to run on.
Offensively, well . . . NE is #1 with a bullet. A whopping 425 yards per game. The big difference from last year is NE is running very well with Stevan Ridley. he’s already over 1,000 yards. Of course the Niners are #2 overall defensively and very tough on the run. Since this is a roadie, I think the Niners need to come out max aggressive on defense. The Niners have been very good at disguising their blitzes at times, so they really need to come out and take some chances early. Brady hits passes under pressure. Imagine letting him sit in the pocket. A recipe for a quick deficit. The point being, if Brady is going to beat you slowly and painfully, then try to force the issue by getting in his face early and often. It may not work, but neither will playing the 4 man rush and dropping the coverage.
So, is this game winnable? Sure. Any game is. But the Niners have to do a few things. Do NOT turn the ball over. Create one or two over their own. Limit the penalties. Especially the costly ones like roughing and unsportsmanlike. Pressure Brady and try to knock down passes. Come out aggressive on both sides of the ball to start the game. There’s no reason to play this safe. Try to get on top early, and force the pace. NE will do what they do and that’s play fast, run no-huddle and force THEIR pace. Got to slow them down. If the Niners can come out throwing successfully and get some points, then they can start the ground and pound. Otherwise, if NE gets on top early, it’ll look a lot like last night’s game.
One thing about Belichick is he doesn’t let up. He’s about pedal to the metal all the time. The Niners need to control the pace.
Forty Niners Forever 
How did the Giants beat the Pats last SB?
They beat the hell out of Mr. Bundchen, all day long. And they did it with their front four, not by blitzing and giving Brady openings to burn them.
Can we do the same? I’m skeptical. Our pass rush is good, but has not looked dominant.
But IF we are going to win, I think that has to be the key component on defense.
As with everything else about this team, it has been hit or miss, Grump. Some games the pass rush is dominant, other days it’s non-existent. Even as far back as Green Bay, the pass rush was outstanding. Constant pressure, and Rodgers never got comfortable. Same with Stafford, but not at all with Manning and Ponder. Brees took a beating, but Tannehill was untouched for long stretches. Look at the Houstons yesterday. They had guys all around Brady, but couldn’t get there in time. He got whacked around, but had enoug time to throw. I think we’ll have to risk blitzing an LB at times. It’s a tough deal to figure out with Brady and Belichick, but it can be done.
Yeah Tannehill was “untouched for stretches”, but there actually looked like good pressure on more than a few occasions where he did a good job of moving around in the pocket to elude. Queue Tom Brady, who does likewise but doesn’t have anything near the speed of Tannehill.
Give Brady 60 chances to kill you and he probably will. The game plan must be to control the ball and for long periods of time. We don’t have to get out of our game if we can keep moving the ball. Inside runs will be tough against Wilfork, but those gun formations may keep him from using Goodwin as an extra d-lineman against Kaep on pass plays. One thing about that inverted wishbone we saw so much of Sunday, the play action out of it can be deadly and the Pats’ D can be had.
I don’t think blitzing with extra rushers is the key but useful at the right time, like some third and longs, against our tendency to drop eight. Brady will keep us in the nickel, which is a big reason for their running game and Ridley’s success, and I don’t know if that means Rogers is manned on Welker or if he just plays over the slot.
Can’t imagine a game plan against Belichick that doesn’t have a spot for a gimmick or two.
According to Accuweather.com, the weather will be in the mid 40’s
Thats just it Chuck, if the Niners have to have a game plan if playing from behind, they cannot go with “lets stick to the run” and “HOPE” the Defense can hold them oh say under 30,”, that will be ridiculous. No come out and score and score often, otherwise it is going to be a long day. if Brady goes off, it will not be that the Niner defense is on the field all the time, it is that the niner offense will try to eat up clock, but when Brady does get the ball he “WILL” score. Book it. And if all the Niner offense does is “RUN” up and down the field and score field goals…well lets just say that is not going to work
Irish, the best way to slow down Brady and co is to keep them on the sidelines. Like the NO game, the Niners came up with an 18 play drive that ate up close to 10 minutes. It only netted a FG, but it kapt Brees on the bench. It won’t happen all game, and yes, the Niners need to come out aggressive, but if the Niners can somehow get on top, THEY can dictate the pace, not the Pats. The Pats are doing we this year mainl;y because teams now have to respect their run game.
We will play predominantly nickel. It’s how we stop the run in the nickel that will tell a lot about this game.
I do not want to see the Niners be the Ravens of the NFC, win a super bowl and then be known for Defense. and go nowhere.
Win a Super Bowl, and they can do as they please. With Kaepernick, they won’t become the Ravens.
Winning the Super Bowl under any circumstance would be great.
Need to win the one before you worry about what follows.
Consolidating some scoring perdictions, Niners vs Patriots early this week:
Irish Kevin: 35- 13 Patriots. I don’t see Harbaugh opening up the offense to keep pace, he will stick with what he thinks is good football, run, run, and run somemore. I am
putting my score out there right now. Niners 13 – Pats 35.
Grumpy Guy: 38-31 Patriots. Early prediction: the Pats beat us in New England. 38-31ish. Setting up our showdown with Pete the Cheat and the Temple of Doom, for the division title.
Phil: 34-31 Patriots. It gives me NO pleasure to say we are not gonna get ‘er done my friends. Prove me wrong, I’ll be great with that. IF we play milque-toast against Billy-cheat we are fucked. IF the D coord Fangio waits fer what is to come. IF we graciously allow Tom B to skin us alive–he will. Sack the mofo!
twinfan: 27-24 Niners. Brady checks off on almost every play so moving people around, showing blitz and dropping back, anytthing to not tip what the defense will be, can be effective,..NE is pretty tough against the run but they give up a bunch in the air-seems a good day to air out a few. IMO. 27-24 Niners.
unca_chuck: 34-24 Niners. I think we can win it. For all the talk of NE’s defense, I think we light them up. 34-24.
barleyfreak: 23-17, Patriots. There’s a lot to be worried about going into Sunday night. This will be the biggest test for our D this year. They’re firing offensively on all cylinders. Based on how we’ve played (or not played) against the slot receiver, they better have an answer for Wesley or it is going to be a frustrating night. I have to think that despite their improvement in the run game, we have to dare them to run and try to mess with Brady from the get go. Al-Don has shown a proclivity to be a freak in prime time. If he brings the multiple sack Smith version, then it could go well. No pressure on Brady and it’s lights out. I have trouble seeing our offense in any way matching in a shoot out. Keep Brady on his back, or off the field.
I think we’ll bring much more of a fight than HOU. But I think the home field is going to mete some crucial plays for them and I think we fall, not in a shootout, but a let down on D at the end. 23-17, Patriots.
Alleykat: 24-20 Niners in a rockin-sockem battle.Want to see Dashon Goldson’s dreadlocks flying as he lays the wood on their recievers.Pats have won 20 straight games at home in December,they won’t get their Blackjack 21st.Niners will be Fucking “FIRED UP” for this game.They get up for the Huge games,like taking down Double-Check Rogers on the road in Green Bay 1st week!!
winder: 16-13 Niners… penalties will be something we have to be careful of. I don’t know whether it’s a soft defense we’ve had since the Ram game or opposing offenses have figured us out, the time of possesion in our games say that we aren’t really stopping anything. We do buckle down in the Red Zone, but against a team like NE we will have to really change up what we have done recently. I have seen quite a few missed tackles coming from us lately. But you are right about the motivation, no doubt we will show up. I think we win this one. 16-13 niners
Chico: 24-24 tie at the end of regulation, Niners win it 27-24 in OT. As mentioned above, get to Brady and keep him off the field or we’re in trouble. That’s on Fangio. I don’t think we can, or should get into a shootout. We just don’t have that kind of dynamic offense that they run, and Brady is, well, Brady. Run the ball, and don’t abandon it like we have done a few times this year. We’ve proven that we can play against the pass heavy offenses but it will be tough on the road and in that weather. I’m sure they’re looking at the film from the Saints and Packers game. 24-24 tie at the end of regulation, Niners win it 27-24 in OT
Great calls gentlemen. This “could” be our Super Bowl so let’s win this one! I’ll post on the spreads later
Flavor: 23-21 Niners. This game comes down to our pass rush. If we can get to Brady he can be had. And I’m not talking blitzing him all the time, he reads that shit like a bedtime novel to his kids. If The Smith’s have a big game we win, if not we will lose badly. But I’m inclined to think we get to him and win this one 23-21. Throw a few long drives in there. As Chuck said above, even if it ends in a FG, if you keep Brady off the field for 8+ minutes that’s a GOOD thing……
27-16 Niners.
I reserve the right to change that to 37-26 before Sunday night.
The UFO Coyotes made the playoffs at the last minute and I’m waiting to get smacked by Dennis, but the next game, that’ll be fun for 3rd place.
Lol Ok
I think we can win it. For all the talk of NE’s defense, I think we light them up.
34-24.
I think we can score on them. It’s keeping Tommy from going Pinball Wizard that is the challenge. Our nickel front four needs to come up big. Give Mr. Bundchen time to throw, and he’ll light up Tarell and Carlos like Dennis’s Christmas tree.
OK
The Patriots pass defense is their Achilles heel, which is why they picked up Talib.
But he’s only 1 guy and he can’t defend the whole field.
Reserve D-lineman Dobbs out for the year with a knee…
Injuries mounting up. Who do we have behind Dobbs?
I’m glad you asked Phil:
49ers sign Bakhtiari to fill special teams role
http://blogs.sacbee.com/49ers/archives/2012/12/49ers-sign-bakhtiari-to-fill-special-teams-role.html
Here’s kinda Pat’s scouting of the Redskins, who run a multiple option running attack balanced with a long passing game.
They run 1 guy inside the tackles to keep the D-line busy. Sometimes it works.
Then they run to the outside to try to draw the safeties and corners up. If they bite, RG goes deep.
That ability to throw deep is what differentiates it from the Wishbone, as an example.
If they stay back, RG and the other back go for 5-7 running outside the edge and maybe break that one deep.
RG has had a concussion already and a sprained knee that he hurt in college.
But this offense is dangerous, and with Kappy, Frank, Manningham, VD, Crabtree, Moss, they can and will run it.
That’s my prediction and I’m sticking to it.
Then they have RG just sit in the pocket and scan the field and go for the TE while the D-line is winded.
Is manningham going to be healthyed up for the game?
Dunno. I forgot the best part of Shanny’s offense. They have plays that look like pass to get the DEs on outside speed rushes. Then they run inside them, and that’s where Frank comes in. Hard for the DEs to rush when they don’t know where the ball is.
But watch out for Wilfork. He’s not playing nose anymore, he’s moving around.
Nice pic of the 49er cheerleaders. I dated one back in the day. It was before she was a member of the gold rush or whatever the hell they are called. Ahh, man I miss that one sometimes.
I stole that Achilles heel phrase from David Fucillo by accident. I owe him an apology. I was just impressed by his article and it stuck in my mind.
http://www.ninersnation.com/2012/12/11/3755590/49ers-vs-dolphins-colin-kaepernick-and-the-bug-eye-diamond-full-house?ref=yahoo