Forty Niners Forever

For you Jefferson Starship fans: fuck you, we do what we want . . . On paper this should be a fairly easy go of things. On the field as well. Although these things rarely go as planned. Still a bit amazed how fast expectations have changed for this team. The demoralizing come from ahead loss to Dallas was followed by an eked out win on the road in Cincy. Week 4 was supposed to be the reality check for this team. Keep close, play tough, but in the end, get overwhelmed by the superior talent in Philly. Then Tampa, the west coast killers, and on to undefeated Detroit. These were all supposed to be teams that were better, stronger, and more prepared than the 49ers. Guaranteed lock wins when their fans looked at their respective schedules. Well, things didn’t work out that way for those guys.

Cleveland? Don’t know jack about them, other than Mike Holmgren is their GM. A job he failed at miserably in Seattle. Their biggest threat, Peyton Hillis is out, and Colt McCoy is a decent enough QB, I guess.Again, haven’t seen him at all. Their defense is ranked pretty high. But 2 of their 3 wins came at the hands of 2 winless teams, mail it Indy, and the Dullfins. So, this probably won’t be a blowout, but I don’t think it’ll be that close in the end.  Somewhere like 24-10.

Beyond that, we’ll have the Philly/Cowboy game on Sunday night.  Lots of interesting stories there. Dog killer vs Promo. America’s team vs the Broad St bullies. The Dream Team vs the scream team. Maybe Romo chokes under the bright lights on prime time football again. Vick has put up astounding numbers in his 4 losses. Should be another fun game. These guys usually have some crazy shit go on. Joe Pisarchik anyone?

There seems to be a lot of talk about Cleveland and their 3-3 record. Yeah, their defense is pretty good numbers-wise (9th in points, 4th in yards allowed), but it comes on the back of wins over 0-6 Miami, 0-7 Indy, and 2-4 Seattle. A whopping 2-17 in their 3 wins. The Niners? 15-11 in their wins. Their 3-3 record comes against teams that are 13-25 collectively. The Niners 5-1? 18-14. There was talk of our schedule being pretty easy, but so far a couple opponents have surprised. Cincy being one of them.

The Niners seems pretty much of a mind to get the lead early, and wear down Cleveland in the 2nd half. Sounds like the old familiar Walsh days that have been gone so long. Colt McCoy isn’t exactly tearing up the league, and their running game took a hit as Peyton Hillis reaggravated his hammy in practice on Wednesday, and is a scratch for Sunday’s game.

Barring complete weirdness, this game should be a fairly easy 24-10 shut down of a not-very-good offense, and enough from our O to coast to victory. Something like 105 from Hunter, and 120 from Gore. I’m sure Harbaugh has designed some new schemes that Cleveland wono’t be ready for, and that the Niners should get on top early.

Jim Harbaugh has a sworn enemy. I mean besides Pete Carroll and Jim Schwartz. His name is Frederick P. Soft. He’s apparently a 4″ tall guy that is waiting to derail progress, sideline successful seasons, and cajole players into a false sense of security. He stands on the players shoulder pads and whispers into their ears how great they are, and how the teams coming up on the schedule will crumble and fall by the wayside just by seeing their greatness. Complacency. Self-satisfaction. Smug arrogance.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it now. The 2 previous regimes fell into this trap over and over. A tough win, or even a close loss to a good team often resulted in the coaches filling the players up with false confidence. Nolan would give the players a day off after a win. Sing would profess their greatness to the world. Only to come out the next week and play flat, awful games. They consistently rested on their laurels. Nolan was the darling of the NFL in 2007. The Niners were poised for greatness. An 8 game losing streak derailed that season. Flash forward to 2010. The Niners were once again poised for greatness. The darlings of the NFL, and predicted to easily win the west. 5 straight losses later, and you have rats bailing on a sinking ship, anarchy, and Singletary pointing fingers at everyone.

Jim Harbaugh seems to have a grasp of how to deal with this phenomenon. The tough win over Philly was followed by a trouncing of Tampa. That was the mark of a guy who has his players prepared. Not reading their glowing press clippings, or standing pat while the next opponent schemes for them. This Cleveland game is another game that can easily be a pitfall game. Their last game was the Deetroit win. A BIG road win. Then the bye week. Now they play at home on front of what will be a crowd now EXPECTING great things. A blowout of lowly Cleveland. Shit changes fast. The perception is now that the 49ers are one of the top teams in the NFC.  I’m sure Harbaugh has used Handshake-gate to build a perception of how the league doesn’t like or respect the 49ers. Early on, he was saying things like “the media ignores us” “ESPN doesn’t show our highlights” and the like. Now it’s this. Corny, manipulative, or whatever, the team is buying it. It leads back to Bill Walsh and the ‘us-vs-the-world’ mentality he cultivated. Us vs the other team, us vs the press, us vs the media, even us vs the front office of his own team. It was all about the guys in the locker room being united in the common goal. Walsh was no rah-rah type guy, but he instilled intense loyalty in his players, and they knew he had their back. Everything stayed in the locker room. If Harbaugh learned anything from his talks with Walsh, this appears to be high on the list.

As far as TO goes, no go. He’s got at least a month of conditioning just to GET into game shape. He ran what, 15 routes without pads, and no defenders around, and he was gassed. His shuttles were fine, but he’s got a long way to go to prove he’s ready for a real game.  I’d say the Raiders or Tennessee may take a flier on him. Maybe even the Rams. But the last thing the 49ers need is a divisive presence like TO in the locker room.

Are the 49ers all of a sudden too lucky for their own good? Are they setting themselves up for a home loss vs an inferior opponent? The Niners get the week off, and add another 0.5 games to their division lead. Braylon Edwards is coming back from his knee injury and practiced today. Moran Norriss is apparently healthy and ready to lose his starting job to Bruce Miller. Tremaine Brock is back in practice, still in a cast, though. The team has had more time to gel and assimilate Jim Harbaugh’s vision of total NFL domination. And their next foe Cleveland, they of their 3-3 record, played what must have been a real barn-burner in Cleveland. A 6-3 shellacking of the Seahawks. So much for Charlie Whitehead being the new savior. NO Whitey indeed.

Speaking of DC, we had a great time. The talk around DC is that Gross Rexman is in full denial mode about his culpability in all the picks he’s thrown this year. He’s been railed in the local press, and he’s shaking it off like a coat of autumn leaves. Shanny however, thinks otherwise. Hence, the benching and the emergence of John Beck. Who, you ask? I have no idea, but we get to play him in 2 weeks. Hightower was lost for the season, and Santana Moss was lost for at least 4 weeks as well.

It is getting to be hard to be pessimistic about these next 2 games. 7-1 heading into the Giants game? Crazy. I don’t foresee any let-down this coming week. Harbaugh has these guys hungry and fully immersed in the ‘us-vs-them’ mentality. I’m double-damn sure he used Handshake-gate to full advantage. Creating the ‘us-vs-them’ strategy is straight from the Bill Walsh coaching handbook.

Depending on how this all plays out, the Niners could face a long coast to the playoffs. What needs to be stressed (and I have no doubt Harbaugh is doing just this) is to create the perception that they need home-field. They need the bye week. They need to establish themselves as Numero Uno. Or Numero Two-o depending on how GB shakes out. Of all the times the Niners have played GB (2x IN GB the last 2 years), THIS would have been a great time to go head-to-head with them. As it is, we may have to wait for the playoffs.

Play nice. I’m gone for the next 4 days. I’ll be baaaack. On Tuesday.

How’s about this? Who do the Niners face in the playoffs. IF they make the playoffs. Do they make it all the way to the 2nd seed and get a bye? Certainly possible seeing as they’ve pretty much played the toughest part of their schedule. Unless they lose their QB and a few LBs and corners, it looks as if the NFC West is in the bag. Balt on the road is the hardest game out there. Pittsburgh has looked emminently beatable. Esp at home. The Giants? I don’t know.  Washington? The Niners should be able to get past them. Jeff Beck? He’s going down. Down down down down down. Who the hell is John Beck? Better than Gross Rexman? Really? The rest of the West? 5-1 should be doable. So, say they lose to the Giants, Pitts, and drop a division game. That’s 12-4. The NFC East and NFC South have too many competitive teams, and will beat each other up and end up 11-5. 1st round bye.

Could I have imagined this 6 weeks ago? No. I had them squeaking into the playoffs at 8-8.

Re-undead Al Davis must be running the Oakland Raiders from beyond the mortal coil. He’s pulling strings from the depths of hell, as the trade for Carson Palmer is right up his alley. Signing Carson Palmer, the big-armed bomb-slinging QB is straight out of the Darryl Lamonica mold. Unfortunately, the Raiders are a running team these days. Behind Darren McFadden, one of the many fast small guys that un-undead Al drafted with regularity, the Raiders are churning up large chucks of yardage on the ground. Campbell certainly wasn’t putting up huge numbers, but he was running the team pretty efficiently.

However, The confluence of Campbell’s injury, Cincinnati’s 4-2 record behind the read-headed step-child Raqggedy Andy Dalton, and the Raiders wanting to get rid of their draft picks for the next 3 years convinced Mike Brown to trade the ‘retired’ Palmer for at least the Raiders 1st round pick in 2012, and possibly (if they make the AFC Championship game) their 2013 1st round pick. It is at worst their 2nd round 2013 pick.

This is quite a price to pay for a guy that has missed camp, and not played a game since the 1st week of 2010. The Raiders are going to start him this weekend vs the 2-3 Chiefs. He is rusty at best. His numbers the past few seasons (19th in QBR last year, 16th the year before, 2008 he was injured, 2007 he was 14th) are pedestrian. And, with the state of that offensive line, he may be under the gun early and often. Too many hits, and he’ll be alongside Campbell on the sidelines. Maybe getting back with Hue Jackson (his QB coach at USC, and WR coach at Cincy) will get him back on beam. If anything, the Palmer trade mercifully gets the Handshake out of the ESPN bullshit news rotation.

And, just in case you are feeling too giddy about the Niners fast start, here’s Ray Ratto’s take on the 49ers:

http://tinyurl.com/5ugnw5w

If I didn’t know better I’d say he’s channeling flying V. What a tool.

But, the good news is, I’m going to Washington DC with my son for a little bit of Americana tourist fun, so it was either pick the bye week, or try to get tickets to the Skins game in DC in mid-November. We opted for the bye week. I haven’t been to DC since 1973, so it should be fun.

Anyhow, back to football, it looks like the Niners aren’t going to do anything before the traade deadline in 5 minutes. Going for Brandon Lloyd, who ended up costing the Rams a conditional pick (6th round?) in 2012, would have been cheap, but they didn’t. He had a fair-to-middling career here, making some spectacular catches and dropping some easy ones, but they do have Braylon Edwards coming back from his knee injury for the Cleveland game.  Last I heard anyway.

Speaking of WRs and such, hopefully Edwards’ return will spark the return of the deep passing game. The Niners have not thrown a lot of deep balls, but have ratcheted up the mid-range game. This is necessary to stretch the defenses and to open up running lanes. But atill and all, we need to at least show that we can try it. Williams is fast. He should be good for a couple deep sideline passes.We’ll never become the 1984 Miami Dolphinis, but they need to show it at least a couple times a game. Brett Swain is fast as well. Get all the speed guys in for a few plays a game.

Speaking of bye week, I wonder what new wrinkles they will come up with. Maybe it is the deep game.

Wow. Unbelievably tough, gritty, smashmouth performance by the resurgent and real San Francisco 49ers. The 2 biggest weapons out of Deeetroit were rendered null and void. Or at least contained. Ndamukong Suh had 2 tackles, and was not a factor all day. His talk of planting our QB into the ground was prescient in the fact that HIS QB was the one sacked 5 times (Smith twice).  Mergatroid had a good game (7 for 113), but was kept out of the end zone, and was not the giant factor he was supposedly going to be. The thing about it, is both were played straight up a lot of the time. Anthony Davis had a spectacular game blocking Suh, and Chris Culliver had CJ one-on-one much of the time.

Offensively, we are in uncharted territory. Alex Smith has led his 3rd 4th quarter comeback on the road this season. Something that hasn’t been seen since (wait for it) the Joe Montana days of 1987. Smith’s numbers weren’t gaudy or spectacular, but he led the team on a 4th quarter drive to seal the deal, hitting Delanie Walker on a 4th and 6 slant for the go-ahead score with 1:51 remaining. Crabs had 9 catches for 77 yards to pick up for Joshua Morgan. Gore slashed and sliced his way for 141 yards, including 2 big chunks of 60 and 44 yards to set up 2 scores. Kudos go to Bruce Miller for keying both runs with key inside blocks. VERY Rathman-esque. That being said, the offense was far from perfect. M0st of the 15 penalties were called on them, with a bunch of false starts, holding calls, and a few illegal formations scattered in there. Crabs made a bone head play when he tried to score after a catch in the 1 yard line was ruled incomplete because he didn’t get his right foot down (2 lefts do NOT equal a left and right). The next play, Delanie Walker dropped a TD pass all alone on the sideline. The Niners also lost the turnover battle. Staley whiffed on the first offensive play, leaving Smith dead to rights on a hit by Kyle Vanden Bosch. The play resulted in a sack/strip (and a FG). Alex also sailed a pass early in the 4th quarter to kill a promising drive.

Enough cannot be said about the defense. Deeetroit’s run game never go going. Stafford was hassled all day. There were 10 hits on him to go along with the 5 sacks. Stafford was forced to check down most of the day as the big weapons of CJ and Pettigrew had their catches, but Deetroit had a hard time sustaining drives due to the D line stopping the run and getting constant pressure. Brooks came clean on a blitz to kill a drive, Aldon Smith had a tackle in the end zone for a safety plus another sack, and  Justin Smith was relentless as well. The secondary gave up yards but no home runs as Deetroit did have some success underneath. The D line has to be considered among the top 2 or 3 in the league.

Heady days, indeed. Harbaugh has seemingly made all the right calls in keeping Tomsula, Rathman, and Solari, while replacing the rest of the coaching staff. Their faith in Old McDonald (and jettisoning AF and Clements among others) has paid huge dividends. The biggest call is putting his eggs in the battered, maligned, and seemingly irreparably damaged basket that is Alex Smith. No one (OK, Twin, you get yours) foresaw the change in his game that has resulted in a huge drop in picks, and a much greater understanding of his offense. Lots of people have bemoaned the fact that he’s had too many OC’s, not real offensive-minded head coach, and all that, but I saw this as a placeholder season for Smith. As it is now, Smith likely gets another contract this year from the 49ers. And rightly so.

Shit, take a look at Baalke’s draft. His first without Singletary. 4 guys in the draft played significant roles in the win yesterday in A Smith, Culliver, Hunter, and Miller. I figured they’d be better this year, just not this good this fast.

Lots of differeing opinions about this Deetroit game. From we’ll get slaughtered, to a tough loss, to a victory. 5-0 Deetroit vs the 4-1 Niners. There are a lot of people out there that don’t believe in either team as being more than flashes in the pan. The winner will be the toast of the NFL. For a week, anyway. I happen to think the 49ers can get on these guys early as the Lions struggle to get going, as they usually do. The onus will be for the 49ers to keep the chains moving once a lead is established. If it is. Harbaugh showed what he could do last week by going aggressive early. The thing was, it was done with a lot of 2 TE/2 WR formations (and even a bunch of 3 TE formations), not the 4 WR sets I had been calling for (and expecting).

The nice thing about all this? Well, I dug the fact that the 2nd TD to VD came on one of the 3 TE sets. One the Niners had run out of the previous 4 times. Down and distance, or formation doesn’t dictate the play being called anymore. Harbaugh had TB completely off-balance the whole day. And TB’s defense isn’t taken lightly. My thought (OK, hope) is they can continue this style of play. I’d actually like to see more multi-WR sets. Get Swain in there. And run up the middle. Throw screens and delays. I think the Niners can use their aggressiveness against them. Should be a good game either way.

Is it me? Why am I not very worried about Detroit? Suh is a beast, and Mergatroid is outstanding. After that? Ehhhh . . .  Frankly, I think the Niners can win this game. Not easy, by any means, but something in the area of 28-17. Some shit like that. Stafford, among all his slow starts and comebacks, is fairly inconsistent. Detroit’s running game doesn’t worry me that much, and they haven’t exactly played a boatload of stellar opponents, either. Chicago was their toughest foe, and among all that ineptitude on the Bears’ part, Chicago was in it most of the way. Lost in Detroit’s win were a shitload of penalties called on them, a lot of missed passes, and the home run to Mergs.

Detroit may get another big play out of him, but the key is to take advantage of all the other opportunities they seem to offer up. They are going to pass a lot, so I’m thinking the Niners will play a lot of nickel and also have Aldon Smith in while they primarily run a 4-3 defense. This puts the onus on the linebackers to watch for screens and delays. That being said, Bowman and Willis are both in the top 7 in tackles, and they are doing a great job of staying at home and not overpursuing plays. A vast difference from last year. How they rotate these guys around as they go from 3-4 to 4-3 will be something to watch. The secondary has made geat strides, even from the start of the year. As many yards as the Eagles gained in the air, the DBs were making plays downfield. And they were tackling guys after catches. The TB game was a study in tight coverage.

The Niners defense is gaining a reputation as a tough, hard-hitting unit. Laying the bricks on Mergatroid may slow him down a hair. I thnk they should jam CJ early and often. Culliver has good size to match up with him on the line. Jam him with help over the top, and they can minimize his impact. I have the same feeling about this game as I did about the Tampa Bay game. They are both good, but I think we out-play and out-coach them.  God, what a weird feeling. It has been too long.