Forty Niners Forever

Woo hoo!  Time to clinch the # 2 seed.

Here we are at week 17, and there’s still a ton of playoff scenarios in the air. This includes the #2 seed in the AFC (Balt or Pitts) and NFC (SF or NO), the final division winners in the AFC West (Denver or Oak), and the NFC East (NYG or Dal), and the last WC spot for the AFC (Jet, Titans, Bengals, Raiders). Dallas or the Giants are eliminated fro the playoffs with a loss, as is Denver. The Raiders have a shot if they lose because of whatever the Byzantine rules are for determining that final spot should everyone fail.

Which brings us to the other side of the standings. The ‘Suck for Luck’ standings. There are 2 teams left in the race. The St Louis Rams and the Indy Colts. If both teams lose, Indy gets the pick because of lack-of-strength of schedule. Jacksonville, the team facing the Colts, has to be thinking “Hmmmmmmmm, this would be a great time to activate all the practice squad guys . . .” Their prize for winning this game would be to face Andrew Luck 2x a year for the next 12-15 years. I bet they are thrilled about that. Which brings us to St Louis. They have invested a lot of time and money into Sam Bradford, but after a strong rookie campaign, they fell flat on their collective faces this season. None of which is Bradford’s fault, but you have to wonder if they’d go with the guy they have, or shoot the moon and take Luck. Bradford has missed the last 2 games (5 overall), andd will likely miss the last one against the Niners, so it doesn’t look like StL will win. Since they look to probably stick with Bradford, and shit-can their coaching staff this offseason, this means StL trades out. Shit, they could trade out and end up with Griffith III. I saw the highlights of that Baylor game. Craaaaaaazy shit. 67-58? Griffith didn’t even have that great a game, 24-33, 295 and a TD, but they had a whopping 485 on the ground.

Speaking of college football. Here we are at game #22 of the final 64, or some shit like that, and I’ve seen maybe 10 minutes of football. And that was the opening of the Cal / Texas game.  Cal looked OK til they killed their first few drives with turnovers. Then I got bored. The Stanford game looks good, the Rose Bowl is always exciting (I have a lot of Duck alum friends) but LSU / Alabama? The 2 teams that played to an epic 6-3 battle? ZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzz…..  Until they come up with a playoff system, this shit’ll be rigged to death. I may watch some of the pinstripe bowl (shit, we run out of names yet) to see the Rutgers WR Mohamed Sanu. There are some games that just lend themselves to taking a look at, at least. The Sugar Bowl, the Cotton Bowl, the Orange Bowl. But the GoDaddy.conm Bowl? How does that rate? Ark St. vs Northern Illinois? Really? I mean, seriously, did any of you watch the Beef ‘O’Brady Bowl? What the f*ck IS the Beef ‘O’Brady Bowl?  Or the Belk Bowl? I’ve visited the Belk Bowl, but that was after drinking too much whiskey.

And hey, locally we have the 10th annual Kraft Fight Hunger Emerald Blue Diamond San Francisco Nut Bowl between 2 stunningly mediocre teams in Illinois and UCLA. Illinois is at a decent 6-6, but they got there by LOSING their last 6 games.  UCLA won (!) the Pac 12 South with a stellar 6-7 record (and bowl sanctions aganist USC) and 2 staggeringly huge losses to USC (50-0) and Oregon (49-31).

Well, the fatted goose has been devoured. The presents unwrapped and forgotten. Crap is piled all over the house with glee. The tree droops listlessly in the corner, waiting for the inevitable trip to the wood chipper. That being said, the football season marches toward it’s conclusion with some definite surprises. The resurgence of the Jim Harbaugh led San Francisco 49ers being one of the biggest. The 49ers have one more meaningful game against the would-be-Rams. They of the high expectations and the 2-13 record. A win next year would sentd the Niners to the playoffs as the #2 seed. No mean feat after the last few majorly disappointing seasons. And a must if the Niners are to have any hope at success, as they’d at least have a home game after the wildcard weekend. Truth be told, getting the 3 seed would give them a better chance to win ONE home playoff game (vs Detroit), and then go on the road to face Norleans.  Frankly, they need the rest to heal up (and get another WR for the just-released Braylon Edwards), so I’d rather take our chances at home against (most likely) NO.

Detroit and Cincinnati (maybe) would be some other new playoff teams. Detroit was hot early, faded in the middle, but came back strong to clinch. Early season surprise Buffalo (5-2 at one point, went on a 7 game losing streak to kill their hopes. Then there’s Tebow-mania, which may or may not lead to a playoff berth, based on what the Jeckyll/Hyde re-undead Al-less Raiders do. The Jets are out, barring an act of God. Major disappointment there. As would be the Giants with a loss to the Dallas Cowpies. They sure aren’t boys.

Other 2011 surprises are of the negative kind. Philly pretty much crapped themselves repeatedly and staggered around to some godawful 4th quarter losses while putting up large offensive numbers. The Giants and the Cowboys can’t get out of each other’s way to barf up the NFC East neither wants to win. Inday came is as the usual fave, but without Peyton Manning, they’ve played like a 3rd string Division 3A college team. New England and GB seem to be winning without any perceptible defense. Balt an Pittsburgh have more than enough of that. As usual, look for one of those 2 to rep the AFC.

NO looks to be the hottest team on the planet as of now. IF they are at home. The key for the Niners is to face them at the speed-crippling Stick. And they need to pray for rain, or water the shit out of the field,  for the Niners to have a chance at slowing down the high-flying Saints. After that? Hey, get there, and we’ll see. If this team can beat the Saints, it can certain;y beat the Packers. Even on the road.

Merry Christmas one and all. I’m busy the rest of the day. The presents are unwrapped, got a nice fire going, and we’re all going to hit the flicks later today. I’ll maybe post later tonight if the Green Bay games gets interesting, but here’s to a happy and safe holiday . . .

BTW, hell of a game yesterday. Still a lot of FGs, and still a lot of drops. The Niners sure look like they’ll earn the bye. Even if Kappy gets some playing time.

-Unca Chuck-

This should be an interesting game as Pete Carroll has a shot to try somewhat even the score with Jim Harbaugh. Jim “what’s YOUR deal?” Harbaugh seems to have a leg up on his skirmishes with Carroll going back to the Stanford/USC days.  Harbaugh was 3-1 vs Carroll in college, and. so foar inthe NFL, is 1-0 vs Carroll. So, the onus is on Carroll to break the vise-like hold Harbaugh has on him,  and for all intents and purposes had better players in college, and whose team is coming on pretty strong defensively this season. They are on a roll, and look to keep their slim playoff hopes alive for one more week. 

Pretty heady stuff, seeing as how they started the year in the shitter by going 2-6. As this division is supposed to be weak sauce, the rest of the NFC can’t seem to close them out. All in all, though, the Niners should win out and wear these guys down.

Well, the Niners proved, in front of a national TV audience, that they can hang with the big boys by thoroughly pounding the vaunted Pittsburgh Steelers into the Candlestick turf. At least when Big Ben is a little off time. His ankle was pretty balky, and that resulted in some errant throws early, to the tune of 2 picks in his first 2 drives. They were actually moving the ball well on both their inital drives. The Niners had struggles of their own early. Alex was off target on some big plays that would have given the team an early 14 point lead, but they settled for FGs, and a 6-0 halftime lead. They burned a ton of clock however, and did keep the ball out of Worthlessberger’s hands in the 1st half.

The 2nd half started out shakily on offense as the team continued to stop themselves with penalties and missed opportunities. Pittsburgh was able to sneak in a 51 yard FG to close the gap to 6-3 in the 3rd quarter. Then, on perhaps the biggest drive of his career, Smith guided the team to a huge TD by going 5-5 for 89 yards. 3 of the 5 went to the oft-maligned Vernon Davis for 53 of the 89 yards, including the TD. The best part of the drive was play action on FIRST down. Something this team tries to do too often is pound it down close. The play action worked to perfection, and the Niners scored easily.

Pittsburgh then went no-huddle to try and get a quick score, but the defense held, and Suisham missed a 48 yard FG attempt. Harbaugh went a little too conservative for me here, and ran 3 times. The kicker being a 5 yard loss on 1st down. At this point he was really leaning on the defense. And it was at this time (the start of the 4th quarter) that the defense really took over. Aldon Smith had been close all game and had an early sack wiped out by a terrible illegal contact call that would have set up a 3rd and 32. As it was, it didn’t matter. Smith and McDonald finally broke through with a sack and caused a fumble that Justin Smith recovered. With the help of a leverage penalty on yet another FG attempt, Frank Gore ran off left tackle for a 5 yard TD, and the game sealer. The 49ers added 2 more sacks by Aldon Smith, and a nice pick by Tremaine Brown on a deep ball.

All in all, the game went about as well as can be imagined. The offense, after some fits and starts, came through in crunch time. The defense was spectacular in that they shut down Pittsburgh’s vaunted deep passing game. Their running game was nonexistent. Pittsburgh did gain a lot of yards through the air by going underneath, but most of the time Pittsburgh was starting drives from inside their 10 yard line. All World punter Andy Lee pinned the Steelers deep repeatedly, and Pittsburgh rarely got into scoring position.

The only negative was Ted Ginn’s ankle sprain. It looked pretty bad, but the x-rays were negative. The bigger deal was Harbaugh giving Braylon Edwards the night off as a healthy scratch. He said Brett Swain was fine as the backup guy. There’s a ringing endorsement for Braylon. I’m sure Ginn will sit the Seattle game out, so one would think Edwards should be ready to play.

For the 49ers having already clinched the division, this Monday night showdown has a ton of playoff implications. If the 49ers win, they stay ahead of NO as the #2 seed in the NFC, while a Pittsburgh win would give them a 1 game lead on Baltimore with 2 games to go. Neither are a certainty if they occur, but either team winning would be a boost for that elusive 1st round bye. The 49ers, by losing would still get 1st round home game, byut would lose the bye week. They would drop from the #2 to the #3 seed. Pittsburgh has even more to lose. If they lose tonight, they’d fall from the #2 seed (bye week + a home game) to the #5 seed (no bye + 2 roadies).

With that in mind, Pittsburgh is now saying Ben Worthlessberger will start tonight’s game at the Stick. Little Ben showed ‘enough mobility’ in Saturday’s practice to start tonight. Which means to me, the 49ers need to show some fairly different looks early in this game. They NEED to get pressure up the middle. Skelton had no problems stepping up last week as the pressure came in from the sides. Stepping up is about the only thing that Worthless can do with his bum ankle. If Soap can’t get in on the backup center (Pouncy is out), then Pittsburgh will more than likely throw quick passes and run delays up the middle to slow down our rush, and keep Worthless out of trouble. Sending Grant in on some blitzes up the middle early, and hitting little Ben, would set the tone for the game. Letting him dink and dunk to set up the big play will not work.

How this shakes out offensively is a question as well. These last 2 games (Balt and AZ) were against teams that run very similar defenses. Pittsburgh is the same deal. Zone blitzing, overloading areas, and disguising blitzes. The good news is we’ve seen it a lot. The bad news is we haven’t adjusted very well. Hopefully by now the Niners can pick up the schemes without getting Smith killed. 18 sacks in 3 games is a trend that HAS to stop. The 49ers need to open with slants and quick passes (for more than 4 yards) that give the team favorable 3rd down situations, and keep the chains moving. The red zone just needs to be re-thought completely. I hope the extra day helps them.

Last week’s game should have been a win. They can’t leave points on the field. And, looking at how the Bolts flattened the Balts, you CAN beat an aggressive defense by being aggressive yourself. The WRs HAVE to make plays tonight. Dropping shit cannot happen. I’d put Williams as the X receiver, and try to get single coverage. Hit him deep on go routes. It doesn’t have to be a slow-developing play. Just float it out there for him when the coverage dictates. I’d try it 3 or 4 times. Ginn proves over and over that he can get open, but he just has trouble catching the goddamn ball.

In other words, if Balt wins, Pittsburgh likely won’t risk playing Worthlessberger and reaggravating the ankle injury. Among the injured who missed Thursday practice for Pittsburgh are Troy Polamalu (hamstring), and center Maurkice Pouncey (ankle). James Harrison of course was suspended for his hit on Colt McCoy in last week’s Cleveland game. The 49ers are battling injuries of their own. Joe Staley is still out with his concussion. He hasn’t been cleared to play yet. Gore is nursing his various injuries but isn’t listed on the injury report.   

Of note during practice this week was the fact that the Niners spent more time working on their red zone offense. Good to know. And the team ‘recommended’ that the crowd not do the wave while the offense has the ball. They seem to think that the noise generated by the wave caused a sack during the StL game a couple weeks ago. Come on people, you do the wave then the OTHER TEAM has the ball. Doh!

Problem is, these guys have started leaking oil, blowing smoke, and are staggering to the finish line. In the grad scheme of things, most figured this race to be a close one. One that was going to come down to the finish line with the division winner at something like 9-7. Well, the Niners got their 9th win in week 11. Those were the heady days of this team being on fire and hard to stop. Since then, the Niner have gone 1-2, and have the (semi) daunting task of facing Pittsburgh. Yes, it’s at home. Yes, James Harrison will miss the game due to his hit on Colt McCoy. Still and all, big bad defenses like Pittsburgh’s give this Niner team fits, as their blocking has been atrocious lately. They’ve given up 18 sacks in the last 3 games, while only getting 6 of their own. The run game has been erratic lately. Mainly due to once again teams are packing the line and daring us to beat them by passing downfield. Smith is to be commended for absorbing a ton of punishment, but he cannot comninue to function in this way if the pass pro doesn’t get better in a hurry.

The scary thing is, these problems were very reminiscent of the problems that the previous regimes had. Even weirder is the Jimmy-Hat red zone offense was very successful when they got close. His problem was not getting close more often. The biggest problem I see is the is the WR corps. Or is that corpse? Ginn, Edwards, VD, and Walker have all dropped too many passes. Crabs has his share, but he’s been the most consistent. Williams has a couple, but he rarely gets balls his way. The defense has been playing well, but succumbed to 3 big pass plays. 2 of them to Fitzgerald on balls that Goldson could have prevented. The other one was to Doucet after the fake FG-TD-red-flag debacle. A BIG monemtum shift right there. What would have been a 13-0 lead instantly became a 1 point deficit.

So, looking at the schedule, 1-2 is very likely. If so, then it means that the team, after going 9-1 thru week 11, closes the season going 2-4 down the stretch. Not a good way to get playoff ready. This would give them (most likely) a WC game at home. The good news about that? They’d stand a much better chance of winning a playoff game if they have to go play right away. The bad news? The next game is a roadie most likely vs New Orleans. NOT a chance there to win. Even if they somehow keep the 1st round bye, they’ll have a tough opponent at home.

By the time the Monday night game rolls around, Pittsburgh will know if Balt has beaten SD on the road. If Balt wins, then Pittsburgh will likely rest Worthlessberger, as Balt would have to lose out for Pittsburgh to win the division. Not likely with each team having a game vs Cleveland. If Balt loses, then Meat-head would probably start to try and get a one-game lead on Balt. Much like the Niners situation, Pittsburgh depending on other teams to falter isn’t likely to happen. So, this game is BIG for both teams if Balt loses to SD. If Balt wins, then the game doesn’t mean as much for Pittsburgh, and hopefully we can then cruise to victory.