The $18 Million Man (updated)

Well, it looks like my estimates of $18-20 mill for Kappy were right on. Our QB for the future is getting a 6 year, $126 millon extension from the 49ers. With a whopping $61 mill guaranteed.

UPDATE: The details are the guaranteed money is paid out on a rolling basis and has some pretty hard incentives to meet. 80% of the offensive plays, 1st team pro bowler, super bowl victory and such. And the guaranteed money is only in case of injury. Plus, Kappy needs to take out his own $20 mill insurance policy.

This puts to rest the thought of waiting out his final season and franchising him. Which I thought would have been a fool’s errand, but the bed is made, and the team is his for the foreseeable future. Or 2020. Whichever comes first. Waiting on this season to pass would have sealed his departure as someone else would have backed the truck or just gieven him a blank check to fill in the zeros.

Whether he can buck the trend of these mega deals never living up to their lofty asprations remains to be seen, but as we know now, Kappy is a hard working guy who at least appears to be driven to reach his and the team’s goals. We can talk about how the offense will progress at a later time, but for now, Kappy is among the highest paid players in the NFL.

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About unca_chuck

Lifelong SF 49ers, SF Giants, and Golden State Warriors fan
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83 Responses to The $18 Million Man (updated)

  1. Irish Kevin's avatar Irish Kevin says:

    Crap shoot, and the pressure will be on him to win a SB. if you let him go and he wins a SB with another team….well you know what happens then. fans screaming at the top of their lungs why didn’t the niners sign him.

  2. Alleykat's avatar Alleykat says:

    Well you had to sign him long term, WTF does anyone think we’re winning a SB with Blaine Gabbert?
    Let’s see what Seahawks fork out for Wilson now, this rivalry is really gone heat up now..

  3. Winder's avatar Winder says:

    I think it’s a good move for everyone involved. It’s a little below market value considering some of the more recent extensions. He is the field general and should be paid for it. The funny thing is he will probably make just as much with outside sponsors over that period of time. I am glad we did it.

  4. unca_chuck's avatar unca_chuck says:

    Yeah, I don’t know thee exact numbers, but since it’s an extension, it may work out to $18 mill. Whatever. The deal needed to get done.

  5. Spitblood's avatar Spitblood says:

    WOW!! But never trust the numbers that come out right after a big signing. Always wait a while to hear how it all really shakes out. Glad we have him signed to a six year deal.

    If you thought our O line was underpaid now, just wait until the 49ers start consistently writing one big check to Kaep. Goodbye Iupati. With Kaep’s new deal, coaches are going to have to get more out of players in their rookie contracts than ever before. Solari will need to get more out of Martin and Thomas (and I know Thomas is injured). If those guys are ready to start (because Solari coached ’em up) then Baalke can get guys like Boone, Davis and Staley to take less.

    The age of red shirting rookies in favor of playing veterans in their second contracts (most expensive) is over. And I’m not that bummed about it because I love watching rookies develop on the field. This Kaep signing means Donatell, Solari, Tomsula, Rathman, Magnini (lol) and others will now really have to earn their keep.

    • 12th man's avatar 12th man says:

      I read its $61 mil guaranteed with 4 years locked in, that’s a little over $15 mil per if its true and is actually less than I figured at $16 mil per. Will have to wait for the real details to emerge.

      • Spitblood's avatar Spitblood says:

        If it’s 15 or 16 per year, that’s awesome. Thing about a super star qb….. he’ll obviously be around for the duration of the contract, so while the guaranteed money is normally the most important part for players who probably won’t play out the entire contract, there’s more to consider for Kaep’s contract. He’ll play out the entire deal, and unless he gets worse, and regresses, the money that isn’t guaranteed will still count in a big way.

      • 12th man's avatar 12th man says:

        That’s one way to look at it. Another is exactly how much are they on the hook for today, money and years? Career ending Injuries, new coaching staff, play regression, finding Jesus, who knows what the future holds?

        I have held that position all along, I want to know how much is the real actual dollars and length of contract he signs for. Future stuff is just that, future.

        Too early to tell since we only have headlines but we will know soon enough.

  6. Spitblood's avatar Spitblood says:

    ESPN is saying roughly what Chuck’s saying – 18 million…. in the Jay Cutler, Tony Romo range, which in my opinion is a bargain because when was the last time those two mooks brought their teams to a championship game?

    ESPN is also imply the 49ers got a deal because they heavily increased the guaranteed money. If I was Kaep, with those long-ass goofy giraffe legs, I’d choose more guaranteed too.

    • 12th man's avatar 12th man says:

      Easy math for ESPN, $121 mil / 7 years give or take plus some bonus stuff. Trouble is that is only the headline deal, not the real deal. I am interested to see just how well the FO really did it’s job though.

  7. 12th man's avatar 12th man says:

    Very happy to see him for the long haul. I think Kap is a rare talent that has the potential to eclipse everyone before and that is saying something. I hope like Chuck says that the new contract gives him the on field muscle to change shit up by himself he he hates the call. There was a few signs of that last year.

  8. Spitblood's avatar Spitblood says:

    Yeah, I’m happy as well. I love Kaep. Me have Kaep crush. Me crush on Kaep. Me love Kaep long ti. The big guaranteed portion of the contract means less money per year. At first blush, you’d think it’s risky for the 49ers to put that much money in guarantees in a contract for Kaep but (and I say this knocking on wood before and after I write this…) when was the last time a qb was injured for two consecutive years in a row? Brady and Manning both only sat out one year with different injuries over long careers. And the Colts and Patriots still had to pay them not only their guarantees but the other stuff (not performance based). And with the rules making it impossible to give a qb even a cross look, nevermind a cross hook, more guaranteed and less overall means more competitive edge for the Niners. Me likey that too, if I’m readin’ the leaves correctly.

  9. 12th man's avatar 12th man says:

    One thing this does is put the Squawks in a world of hurt. Wilson is on deck and he will obviously expect more because he actually did win a SB. The Squawks already have the highest payroll in the NFL and have just done a trio of very large deals for their legion of dumb. Something will have to give for them. Their cap situation will definitely hurt them next year. They sold out for one more swing at bat this year.

    • Spitblood's avatar Spitblood says:

      I don’t agree that Russell Wilson will want more. I think Russell Wilson is very aware of what he is and what he isn’t. I think he knows he’s not as talented at Kaep. But I also think he’ll want to be paid in line with other guys like Cutler and Romo, which is where Kaep appears to have been paid. I expect Seattle to pay Wilson a very similar deal to what the 49ers have now paid Kaep. I also expect Harbaugh to make more money than Pete Carroll. We’ll see.

      Next contract move for the 49ers isn’t Boone or Vernon…… it’s Harbaugh.

      • 12th man's avatar 12th man says:

        Next year there will be another $10 mil added to the cap and Cam Newtons deal is due. Wilson will want more, bank on it. Even at the same level of pay as Kap the Squawks will have a tough time cap and payroll wise. With some restructuring they may make one more year without serious cutting but each year bought costs them 2 in rebuild.

      • Spitblood's avatar Spitblood says:

        I think both Cam Newton and Russell Wilson know that Colin Kaepernick is better than they are…. I don’t think either qb will get paid more than Kaep regardless of increases to the cap. I think the Seahawks will remain competitive for a long, long time. Ravens vs Steelers with Cower, Tomlin, Stewart, Maddox, Roethlisberger, Billick, Dilfer, Flacco and more just got a lot more simplified with four guys competing for a long, long time against each other (Harbaugh, Carroll, Kaep and Wilson). Right now the legacy and score is Seahawks, 1, 49ers 0. But it looks to be a marathon, not a sprint.

  10. Nipper's avatar Nipper says:

    I BLEEPING concur with this signing. BLEEP IT!

  11. Winder's avatar Winder says:

    The Niners have secured the face of the franchise. He is charismatic with an appeal to a wide range of people. In fact the only people who openly hate him are mostly Seattle fans, and that’s a good thing. I agree with whoever said earlier that Kap’s potential is off the charts. And, even though I am in some ways very sad the team is leaving the City, I am totally stoked about our new digs and what they will mean to the franchise.

  12. unca_chuck's avatar unca_chuck says:

    Yeah, this is all going to be nuts this season. Can’t wait for this season to start. Tickets are going to be astronomical.

    The hope is they do open things up and this team scorches the shit out of the rest of the league. Seattle has regressed. So have we, but I think we have the potential to be MUCH better offensively than we were last year.

    Pretty classy of Colin to thank Alex Smith for helping his transition into the NFL. especially after how things went down.

  13. unca_chuck's avatar unca_chuck says:

    I think R Wilson is going to stay right in the neighborhood of Kappy. He doesn’t seem to have any big swinging dick issues. I don;t think Colin does either, but someone had to set the bar for CK, RW, and Cam going forward.

  14. unca_chuck's avatar unca_chuck says:

    Kappy apparently gets a relatively low $12 million signing bonus, which gives the team cap flexibility. At least near term.

    Per Adam Schefter:

    When signing the contract, Kaepernick specifically requested that it allow the 49ers the flexibility to negotiate extensions with other players such as wide receiver Michael Crabtree. According to one source, Kaepernick specifically asked, “So this structure gives us room to try extensions with my teammates, right?” He was told yes.

    Sounds like he lived up to his talk of not wanting to overwhelm the team with his deal, astronomical as it is.

    • Spitblood's avatar Spitblood says:

      A lot of people still don’t realize or have taken it for granted that Kaep’s still a very young qb. I remember when Alex Smith was drafted by the 49ers. I went to a game back in ’06 with my then 22 year old girlfriend (shouldn’t have let her get away). I was drunk by kickoff giving everyone in the stands a mouthful even though we were all on the same team. I bumped into a college friend at the game and he told Alex Smith had radar lock the likes of which he’d never seen before. Until then, I hadn’t noticed. I watched as the years went on and Smith continued to have problems with radar lock. Now Smith has become a qb who will lock onto his read, then either run or look for the check down. In SF he took a lot of sack because his decision making process took too long. Smith will also from time-to-time throw it away. But Smith has huge problems with his vision still and can rarely get to his third or fourth option. It took Smith six or seven years to be able to effectively get off his first option and then check it down or throw it away. For me, you have to be able to get through your progressions – options 3 and 4 and then deliver it to option 3 or 4 with split second decision making coupled with accuracy.

      You know who does this better than anyone in the league in my humble opinion? Eli Manning. Aaron Roger and Drew Brees can get through their progressions, but Eli can read the defense and deliver better than anyone. You might think Peyton is better at reading the defense and going through his progessions, but I disagree. I think Peyton is better at creating a matchup he loves at the line, then not looking at the receiver until the last possible minute, keeping the safety guessing. But Eli, again in my humble opinion, can scan the field better than anyone, with Aaron Rogers a close second.

      Colin Kaepernick needs to work on two things….. his deep ball and going through his progressions better, and I think this year Roman will install new offensive plays that require Kaep to read the field more. Last year was Kaep’s first year, and Kaep and Roman were limited by offensive personnel that Roman has taken a beating for incorrectly on the blogs. Young qb, limited offensive personnel means conservative play calling. But now Roman needs to give Kaep passing plays where Kaep has three or four options to read and then sling it.

      The art of going through your progessions is interesting, and it’s why I love Eli. Tonight I watched Kaep on television throwing to his receivers while ESPN debated various components of Kaep’s deals. I watched as Kaep watched his receiver running a route, then pulled the trigger at the right time, delivering a well-thrown ball. But Kaep watched the receiver the entire time during those warm-up tosses so his mind’s eye could judge how fast the receiver was running and he could time his pass. Kaep would take three or four seconds (and mind you, these were warm ups) to judge the receiver’s speed, but Eli Manning needs about a half a second in big situations to judge how fast a receiver is running and then deliver a very accurately thrown ball in clutch, clutch situations. For all the shit Eli Manning gets, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a qb go through his progressions better than Eli Manning. If I was Roman and Harbaugh, this year would be the year I’d work tirelessly with Kaep on getting through his progressions to find the open receiver. Because with Stevie, Crabs, Boldin, Vernon, McDonald, Ellington, Patton, Hyde, Hunter and Lattimore….. that’s a lot of mouths to feed. A lot of those guys are going to want the football. They’re going to want their stats. If Kaep wants to lead those guys, he’s going to need forget his own stats (running) and create opportunities for them all in the passing game.

  15. 12th man's avatar 12th man says:

    If Maiocco and PFT has it right what Kap has actually signed is a 1 year $13.073 million deal. That being the only fully guaranteed portion of his contract. The $61 mil figure is guaranteed for injury only and Kap has to take out a $20 mil insurance policy with the Niners as beneficiary Meaning the guaranteed value for injury id $41 mil.
    It’s still early to know if these are the real facts but if so, or even close to so, Kap needs new agents.

  16. 12th man's avatar 12th man says:

    Link to PFT Kap contract piece:

    The full Kaepernick contract details

  17. 12th man's avatar 12th man says:

    Lost in yesterdays big Kap news was that VD has said he wants an extension:
    http://www.sacbee.com/2014/06/04/6458566/stock-offering-makes-49er-star.html

    Mangini is also reported to have told the rest of the TE group that they will have an extended opportunity to prove themselves.

    VD says in the article above that he wants to play till his toes fall off, hopefully for the Niners.

    Don’t know about you guys but I don’t see him getting an extension this year even with the dumb contract Kap appears to have signed.

  18. 12th man's avatar 12th man says:

    Another tidbit about Kaps contract if true. He loses $2 mil per year unless he takes 80% of the snaps AND plays in a SB or makes 1st or 2nd team All-Pro. He has to do that for every year he plays or he losses $2 mil that year.

    He also losses $125,000 for every game he does not suit up, meaning if he has an injury and can’t play he losses $125,000. Willis lost $100,000 for missing 2 games last season with his injury, this is more than double that.

    This is not a good contract for Kap but worse than that it has the key ingredients to make him a disgruntled player. Can you imagine playing 80% of the snaps winning 10 games and going to the NFCCG and losing $2 mil if not chosen to be an All-Pro that year?

    How about missing 4 games for an ankle sprain and losing $500,000?

    The Niners FO should all wear a mask cause this is highway robbery.

  19. 12th man's avatar 12th man says:

    A few reasons why Wilson will get more money than Kap:
    http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcwest/post/_/id/113807/wilsons-20-million-a-year-is-coming

  20. unca_chuck's avatar unca_chuck says:

    Crazy that the agent went for all these de-escalators in the deal. This is baiscally the Alex Smith deal times 3 where they have control to cut him at any time and not be on the hook for very much money.

    • 12th man's avatar 12th man says:

      Crazy deal that he signed. Malpractice by his agents is not too strong a word. I guessed at $16 mil and it turns out I way overestimated. I guessed at $12 mil for Alex Smith but Kap is the one in that ballpark.

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