This is the part of the season that, while intriguing, I don’t really get too thrilled about. I’ll cursorilly (sure, that’s a word) look over draft boards (Walterfootball, fftoolbox, Barrows, Maiocco, etc) and opine about who we’ll take. It’s interesting to see who actually gets drafted, and I was shocked as anyone when the Niners picked Kentwan Balmer, as I predicted a few years ago. Won me a semi-worthless signed Alex Smith jersey that I’ve worn to a few games (but noth the Miami game). I even picked the Niners to draft Colin Kaepernick 2 years ago. Huzzah. Blind squirrels and nuts, and all that.
This time around, we have the intrigue of what happens to Young Sir Alex (yes, the blog gift that keeps on giving), the possibility of drafting 14 players (unlikely, as the team is fairly loaded and doesn’t need to fill that many holes), and the general uncertainty of what the game plan is for this draft in the eyes of Trent Baalke and Jim Harbaugh.
My $0.02 on the subject is that the Niners will find a trading partner in KC for Alex (a 2nd round pick in 2013 and a 3rd round pick in 2014), and fool everyone by drafting Zach Ertz with their 1st pick. They can then jettison Delanie Walker and keep Garrett Celek. There are plenty of defensive linemen and DBs out there with their remaining picks, and they’ll get needed depth as they let Goldson sign a big deal elsewhere and move Culliver to FS.
Forty Niners Forever 
Some fairly decent players getting cut around the league already.
I’m curious about 2 guys from Oakland for possible FA consideration.
Richard Seymour, ( if cheap enough), maybe a 1 year deal?
Desmond Bryant as another pass rusher?
You think Seymore has much left in the tank?
A thought occurs to me, the Raiders is where players go to finish their careers. Seems like players rarely leave Oakland and go on to have a successful career with other teams, or maybe I’m dreaming that?
LOL about moving on from Oakland. Touche’
Some have done it, Randy comes to mind. Jerry? Ronnie?
Seymour as a mentor, rotational player would work for me, assuming we grab a similar player in April.
He’s won, he’s polished and he’s local.
Strictly on the cheap if it were an option, ala Randy.
Randy left the black hole and did well in NE but Jerry and Ronnie? I didn’t see Seymor last year but he must have gray hair by now.
Tavaris Jackson signed with the Bills for 2 buttons and a quart of ice cream. There goes one of the potential Smith landing spots.
We could get lucky with JAX or the NYJ however?
See how it goes before March 12.
If Alex is released for nothing, I’d be disappointed but not totally surprised.
It’s all about finding 2 interested GMs and, hoping we can create competition before they play our bluff or, wait for his release.
Browns, KC and JAX are all still in play right now, Bills was a longshot.
Agreed.
Hoping someone comes through for us 12th.
Extra Pick(s) is always a plus.
No argument to the topic of our Pass Rush lacking in the Playoffs.
We need DL rotation that keeps it coming.
For that reason, I wouldn’t mind seeing one of the Wide Bodies Drafted inside that can occupy and clog the middle.
We seem to have more options on the DE side of the ledger right now.
Perhaps a space eater like Jenkins could work for 1st and 2nd down duties?
Will be interesting to see how Baalke plays this Draft.
Even a guy like Brandon Williams could be a factor.
He’s more of penetrator but, he certainly could help erase the inside of the pocket.
One big issue we had was keeping the QB from stepping up.
Thing is Niners played a NT 30% of the time. Not to minimize that stat but a brutal DT/slick DE would seem more important since that position plays close to 100% of the time. Thoughts?
I’m not really sure how Fangio envisions his DL 12th.
He really seems to rely on the Front 4 alot.
I on the other hand, like the LeBeau style in Pittsburgh.
Maybe the Man-Child inside and a handful of interchangeable DEs would help our scheme?
RJF is useless against the Run. No sand in his pants.
I see Jesse Williams as probably the closest thing we might have a shot at in terms of Justin Smiths’ protege`?
There are plenty of guys all throughout this DL Class that could help us.
I’m anxious to see what Baalke and Fangio decide to target.
My 2 favorite DTs are gonna go high. Shariff Floyd and Sheldon Richardson.
Wouldn’t mind a Trade Up for either if we could pull it off.
I’d also go after S Kenny Vaccaro if able.
I also like DE Sam Montgomery. Not sure if we’d have a shot but…..we’ll see.
David Bass would be my fall back option. Might see him in the 3rd.
I’m Old School regarding the 3-4.
Always believed in the Channel Marker inside.
Ted Washington, Michael Carter, Vince Wilfork, Haloti Hgata-types.
yeah I agree Fangio doesn’t play a traditional 3-4 with a wide body, he plays a hybrid and intertwines 3-4 and 4-3 liberally. I think he goes with 4 rushers to help the back 4 and to support the run game. He rarely gambles a 5th rusher but as we have seen the downside is if the 4 don’t get the job done playoff caliber QB’s have enough time to set and throw. Its like his scheme is solid and unsepctacular and relies on outstanding individuals to make plays but the problem is as you go deep into the playoffs the opponents are better and play equally spectacularly. That’s where having a deeper rotation on the line would pay off with fresh biceps to carry the load. Hope that made sense.
Ngata that is
Sandman came early tonight NJ, nice rapping with you again, don’t work too hard.
Will do 12th –
NJ49er, I like the more traditional two-gap 3-4 too but we have been using the nickel as our predominant defense. I suspect it’s a function of where our players fit best as well as our competition so that may not change given the success we’ve had with it. I think we used our base 3-4 more in the last games as a means to compensate for Justin Smith by having Sopoaga in the middle and Smith able to vary his alignment more than anything else.
Thanks NoFear49er, I’ve been curious about whether we play with the guys we have?
Could Fangio possibly have something else in mind?
Guess this Draft Class will provide some direction in that regard?
We seem to have a bevy of 290ish sized guys like RJF.
Be interesting to see if the Channel Marker-type guy gets selected in April.
Would love to see a LeBeau-esque scheme employed in SF.
I remember the days of getting stomped by GB when they had HUGE Gilbert Brown in there destroying our smaller OL guys.
I have no problem adding some tonnage to this DL.
Baltimore seemed to have the upper hand on Goodwin for that reason?
I realize Ngata is all world but?
Size and strength matter in the trenches.
Ice is a heavy / strong guy but getting long in the tooth now.
I’d love to have a couple more guys like him in the rotation.
NJ49er, I’ve hoped a LeBeau-type pressure defense was what we were going for since Nolan made the transition to the 3-4. We do some of the zone blocking and games/stunts but we don’t bring more than four too often. The Smith brothers had their tackle-end game perfected but apparently we left out all the other d-l guys on the practice drills. Nolan tried to make the LeBeau firezone work but we didn’t have the players then.
Do you remember Fritz Shurmur’s eagle defense? Five LBs and two linemen. That’s about all we had left.
I’m sure the brain-trust is questioning Justin’s post-injury effectiveness (did he have the surgery yet?) and whether Sopoaga’s peaked. Personally, I think he (Ice) was discouraged by his lack of playing time, but it’s hard to argue with success.
Ngata is smart and fast, too. Playing against a guy like Suh, we could trap and wham him all day. I think Ngata and the Ravens did a fine job of taking away the middle run of our read option and Suggs played the keep option well, too. I thought we might have had some plays in to counter that defense but it looked like they had our number until the lights went out in Georgia, or the big easy.
Yeah, can’t wait to see who we target in the draft. You G
oops, hit the post button too early. You GMs will have to shave the options down for fans like me.
Good thoughts NoFear49er.
Appreciate the feedback.
Guys like Ngata are pretty rare.
Don’t think one of those guys exists in this class.
Lotulelei perhaps? Never saw him play however.
Safe to say, we won’t have a sniff anyway.
I spend months ‘data mining’ the College stats just to get familiar with the guys coming out.
All in all, it’s still a crap shoot, even with the best Scouting efforts.
I’ve always adapted the analogy that the ‘REAL’ football players are those Rd 3-4-5 guys that play for love of competition, and want nothing more than to prove that the Top rated guys are pussies.
For me, guys like Bruce Miller are indispensable to a Team.
In Military terms, the Grunts.
Small school guys like DE David Bass and DT Brandon Williams could be my kinda guys.
No clue what Baalke will shop for of course, speaking as the Jr GM here.
Keeps me involved while we wait for the selections to be made and those Pro checks to be written.
At least the Rookie Cap got instituted.
Keeps some integrity in place for the guys that truly deserve to be paid for their production as Pros.
Nothing worse than spending millions on guys like JaMarcus and VY only to get nothing but Cap-abused by losing guys to FA because you couldn’t afford to pay them.
For that reason, I wouldn’t be afraid to sell out to move up for the right guy.
If not a DT, a DE or S like Vaccaro could prove to be a difference maker.
One guy everyone seems to rave about is DE Dion Jordan from Oregon.
Again, never saw him play but, he’s already being compared to Aldon.
I’m curious. He’s extremely lanky. 6’6″ and under 250.
Could he be a target for us?
I don’t see it but……I never gave Aldon too much attention Pre-Draft either.
I would like to see us add a true 5-Technique DE.
A solid 275-285lb guy with some wheels and bull rush ability.
Dobbs fits that bill. Perhaps he’s our answer?
Still, IMO, you need all those type of guys you can find.
Trench Warfare –
Protect the QB –
Sack the QB –
NJ49er, good stuff. I know you do a lot of homework on these guys.
I meant to mention somewhere in our conversation about safeties that Goldson has played more the traditional free safety lately. He lines up on the weak side behind our MIKE LB, Willis, in deep coverage most often but not always.
Also wanted to add that some folks don’t seem to understand that the way our corners play coverage now (the way many have been crying for years for) dictates a safety or safeties play up nearer the box in run support and under deep coverage more often (under coverage as opposed to over the top coverage). This is much riskier pass coverage, takes away many opportunities to jump routes and is much more dependent on a pass rush to work well. IOW, it’s not all on the DBs.
It’s scheme and failures in other areas as much as anything. Even though it appears on the TeeVee that the safety screwed up, that’s not always the case.
Well I’m learning something new here.
Would agree Goldson has been more of the Center Fielder this year for sure.
you did point out to me that we employ more interchangeable S schemes which explains some of what I was having my doubts about.
I have a preference for the Press Corner guys but I guess that has to fit the schemes on any given play.
What appears to have happened to Culliver was getting double moved in the SB.
Once they got him to turn he was unable to recover to find the ball.
As commented on by someone earlier in the thread, he picked the worst possible time to have his worst game.
There too, a pass rush would have paid dividends for the Secondary.
Goldson does find the ball back there, Whitner, not so much.
I’ve had my share of frustrations with Goldson regarding bad angles and not playing the ball in the past.
He did seem to clean that up considerably this year for sure.
We all want an Ed Reed back there I guess, the savvy FS that baits a QB into throwing the ball where he wants him to.
Goldson hasn’t frustrated me as much this year I’ll admit.
It’s been more on Whitner getting to the Post.
I’m very comfortable with the Class of DBs we’ll have to choose from.
No doubt we’ll get younger faster and, probably taller back there.
Agreed NF. Once Justin and Aldon were hurt and less effective pass rushing I would have thought Fangio would change up the scheme to a deep safety and rushing 5 more often to disrupt timing but he didn’t really do it. It would have led to more yards in the run game probably but that’s the trade off. Both the Falcons and Ravens were able to exploit the back 4 because of lack of adequate pressure.
Fangio knows his players better than me but as an armchair expert I didn’t understand why he stuck with the same formula.
To hear the players say it, they said to a man that Fangio didn’t change things up in the Atl game. I thought I saw Cox more in the 2nd half, but I may be wrong. But if that’s true, then what? Why the flat play in the 1st halfs of those games?
Did they all forget about Frederick P Soft?
I think mostly that the Falcons were playing it safe to protect their lead, less risk. There were some changes to scheme too but nothing drastic. Niners O began to click more than anything the D did differently.
Culliver panicked big time. Once turned he was toast. I still think he’s a good player, but with Whitner dropping off so badly, and Goldson’s inopportune mistakes, I think there will be changes in the defensive backfield.
And sure, I’ll get on the Brenda Vaccaro train . . .
Yeah I can’t see them staying pat in the backfield either. Another point is that the league had a year of tape on the Fangio scheme. In 2011 they had all those gaudy picks, in 2012 not even close, with the same players and scheme. I don’t think Fangio changes it up enough and tendencies are too visible. I think that’s why statistically his defenses deteriorate each year, not enough new stuff appears.
replied to the wrong post, sorry Brenda.
Yeah, that was something I noticed about Fangio as well. His defenses seemed to be taken advantage of the longer he sticks around.
This’ll be a telling year. The hope is more depth across the entire defense. I think we’re fine at LB, but the rest needs and infusion of talent.
This draft aligns perfectly with the Niners areas of need. O really just needs a WR, maybe a center if Goodwin is a cap casualty and maybe a TE if Walker walks. Other than that its depth to compete for back up playing spots. D needs 2 starting line guys to rotate in and a starting safety and a slot CB as well as depth to compete for back up spots.
ST needs a kicker, Rams picked up their kid in the 6th round and he was money last year. They also need to replace the Costanza loss which they didn’t do last year and ST dropped off as a result. After that with Ginn gone they need a KR so any DB they do pick up should also have KR skills.
LMJ is fine for KR. It’s a punt returner that we need. LMJ was a disaster returning punts, and Ginn was the 2nd coming of Aleen Rossum (run sideways, get OB). He had a couple decent ones, but for the most part was forgettable.
I’ll say it again, if Ertz in there, they just might take him with the 1st pick. He’s got size and hands. They could concievably keep Waker and draft Ertz, but I’d think they’d drop Walker, keep Celek, and draft Ertz.
My bad, I meant PR with Ginn gone. Ginn is afraid of contact, not ideal in a PR.
LMJ was shakey at PR in pre season but has a year of KR experience now. Maybe he can do it I don’t know.
I will be surprised to see them drop Walker. Celek has potential too. If Walker wants out will they use the FT? I think Walker could make more money somewhere else.
Walker has great value for the Special Teams which seems under the radar.
When they let Michael Robinson go the Special Teams suffered.
Last year it was Costanza and Colin Jones
Walker had a bad year catching but his blocking and other contributions were a key to the success of the team.
They had a TE with size and hands last year and let him go, Konrad Reuland. That kid was a pass catching machine but his blocking was weak. They prized blocking first and catching second at the TE position due to run game emphasis.
Has that dynamic changed with Kap at QB? I guess we will see.
The company man put up a post about trading Smith to Zona. He posits, albeit a little tongue in cheek, that if Smith is a system QB made by Harbaugh then the Niners would have a system to beat him.
I am not worried about Smith going to Zona either. They need a lot of work on the O line which probably takes 2 years to fix. They don’t have a good running back to speak of. They have a great wide receiver and that’s about it. They have a new coach and system to put in place.
Even if Smith had the talent to succeed on his own merits, which I don’t really believe, the rest of the Zona offense is not a lot of help for him sans Fitzgerald.
If he went there I would put the odds of serious injury at 50/50 since he has to face 2 of the leagues best and toughest defenses 4 times a year and the Rams have a pretty good defense that’s not far behind either. That’s six division games against teams who know his style of play very well and he won’t have half the supporting cast he had with the Niners.
If Smith goes to Zona he might set a league record for sacks in a season, if he plays long enough.
I don’t care where Alex Smith goes either. If it is Arizona, we know more about his weaknesses and tendencies then he can use or give away about ours. I heard somebody on SiriusXM yesterday making a case for Reid to want him enough in KC to pay for him. Made sense to me.
When they let Michael Robinson go, the team underachieved badly across the board. It had little to do with M-Rob. Losing Constanza did hurt. The Raider guy was supposed to make up for his loss, but he was cut.
Strangely enough, even the TE talk goes back to Goldson and what they do with him. If they tag Goldson, then they either sign Walker or let him go. If they don’t tag Goldson, then do they use that for Walker? It would be a fairly hefty price to pay for a nominal role-player. Yeah, he’s a good blocker/ST guy, but if we’re paying him $6 mill (franchise tag TE money), then he needs to show a lot more than the 30% drop rate he had last year. That’s abominable.
Wasn’t M-Rob 3 or 4 years ago? Walker definitely dropped a ton of passes last year and if he is to be an integral part of the passing game obviously that won’t cut it. He did do a lot better later in the year though so I hope he is sleeping next to the jugs machine this off season.
Walker’s playoffs were pretty forgettable. Esp the NFCCG. 4 drops in that game alone. Many drive killers.
M-Rob was released in 2010 and quickly signed by Scotty in Seattle. One of many ex-Niners to go to the Hawks.
$6M for Delanie would be insanity.
The guy has hands that make Ray Durham’s look like Brooks Robinson’s…
Alex is going to KC…..Reid likes him(not sure why?) There is no way in hell,he’s drafting Gino Smith #1 dude is not worth it.They will take Jockiel (sp?) #1.
Reid will choose between Smith or Kolb.Hopefully Smith,and were add a 3rd and later pick and clear up this mess.
Reid’s lived and died behind the craziness that is Michael (snoop dogg) Vick that I’m sure he’s ready for some safe high percentage passing at this point. He has some WRs, and a decent running game. Smith would complement that.
I could see Cleve as well. But either situation is pretty good for Smith. They are both young teams with some talent. Th3e hope is they get into a little bidding war . . .
Alex should go to Cleveland and be re-united with his first love Norv. Cleveland has been dogmeat, so they’ll even think Alex will be doing well when he dumps off his upteenth pass in the flat every 4th quarter. Plus, he’ll be the AFC, and the Niners won’t want him in the NFC, if they can help it…
Cleveland – Weeden
Bills – Fitz, Jackson
Arizona – Matt Barkley, Skelton
Chiefs – Geno Smith, Cassel
Jets – Matt Flynn, Sanchez
Niners – Bluffing.
Smith – Backup in 2013….
Honestly, if I’m Smith, assuming I was money-driven, I’d be hoping the 49ers paid me 8 million to be a backup because Smith isn’t getting 8 million on the open market with the rookie salary cap driving his value down. I’m sure part of the Smith/Peyton Manning negotiations with the drama of Smith flying to Miami was largely due to the 49ers wanting to pay Smith a fair market value last year so the 49ers could trade Smith this year, but despite everyone saying what a great job Paraage does, he fucked up. Smith isn’t worth 8 million per year. And the 49ers themselves are a great example. Kaep makes 1/8th what Smith does. Wouldn’t other teams needing a qb elect to find a cheap rookie starter over paying Smith 8 times what a rookie would be worth? Paraage messed that up. The 49ers, last year, could have said, “You don’t like our 4 million? Go find it else where.” And I’m not Monday morning quarterbacking this one. I was saying that last off season. If Smith hits the open market, he’s only worth 4 million per year. I’m sure some will disagree, but there’s other options out there far less expensive than 8 million for Smith. Teams know Smith’s improvement was due largely because of Harbaugh. Take Harbaugh out of the equation and you have ……. Smith with Singletary redux. Didn’t Troy Smith beat out Alex Smith?
If they don’t trade him they cut him. Either way Paraage covered his bases and did a good job Spit.
Spit your argument assumes teams can get comparable play to Smith at a huge discount. Statistically rookies don’t pan out very well first year. Using Kap who has the best 10 starts in the last 5 years or RG3 or Luck or that dwarf I can’t stand in Seattle is BS because that is not whats in this draft by a long shot so any team needing a QB has to look to vets. Smith has the best 2 year record of any vet by far. I agree the Harbaugh factor comes into play but what other choice is there?