Is Green Bay a Must-Win Game?

Well, no, but hey, lots of people think this could decide the seeding for the playoffs. As in who gets home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. I don’t think it is this dire this early, and a LOT of things can happen between now and January. As it is, though, the Niners aren’t getting any love from the national media regarding this game. No one expects then to win. Except for Chris Berman. He’s saying 24-23 Niners, but he is a big Bay Area sports fan. I had the pleasure of meeting Berman at the 1998 Pro Bowl in Hawaii (you know, the one where Steve Grogan and Derrick Thomas got thrown out for fighting). Me and a couple friends made the trip and stayed in the Hilton Hawaiian Village. We threw our shit in the room, and went down to the outdoor bar. 5 minutes after we sat down, Chris Berman and his wife sit down at the table next to us. Of course we start talking football, and within 5 minutes we are all sitting at his table talking baseball. Funny thing is, he says he’s a huge SF Giants fan and really isn’t into football all that much. But he did say one of his biggest thrills was being on the field for the Catch game, when ESPN was barely off the ground. The guy was incredibly nice, and we sat there for about an hour and a half drinking beer and  shooting the breeze about the pro bowl, football, and mainly the Giants and how he really wanted them to win the World Series.

Uh, anyhow, back to the game. This would not be a season-killer to lose in Lambeau. Winning in Lambeau is a tough not to crack in the worst of times. Nowadays, with Aaron Rodgers and his high-flying offense, the task is even that much more daunting. The question for me is how does OUR offense look? The preseasonw was a mix of running, vanilla passing, and little imagination in the red zone. You know, a lot like last year’s offense. This year, however, we have much better WRs (the M&Ms), a better short-yardage guy in Brandon Jacobs (boy, did the NY GIants miss him the other night?), and some speed burners in AJ Jenkins and LaMichael James. Problem is, Jacobs, and LMJ are dinged up and may not play, and AJ may not suit up. Although Ginn is nursing an ankle, So I’d think AJ is in the lineup.

So, my key to this game is to get on top of GB early by being aggressive. Green Bay’s corners last year were sieve-like in their coverage. Tramon Williams and Charles Woodson are returning as the starting CBs. The ones who gave up nearly 300 passing yards per game. Worst in the NFL. The flip side of that is Woodson’s 7 picks, and Williams 5. They took a lot of risks, and were VERY-hit-or-miss with their coverage. Still and all, for all the yards given up, their DBs picked off 25 passes. I would hope to see Randy Moss get some substantial playing time, because he’s big and tall, and we need to see if he still has something to offer besides mentoring and teaching. Manningham is another big target, and I want to see this offense move the ball and score TDs.

Defensively? Well. If the Niners can get on top of GB, they can bring the house against Rodgers. NY did it fairly easily last year in the playoffs IN Lambeau. Pressure him, flush him from the pocket, and keep hitting theitr WRs.

Like I said 28-20 Niners.

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About unca_chuck

Lifelong SF 49ers and SF Giants fan
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78 Responses to Is Green Bay a Must-Win Game?

  1. unca_chuck says:

    From last thread:

    Chuck: 28-20 Niners “Take advantage of their young D and lousy corners to build a lead, and then get after Rodgers”.
    Phil: 27-24 Niners “Cowboy gonna eat the OL tackle fer lunch”
    Del Mar: 34-20 GB “In favor of the team with the better QB.”
    12th man: 23-21 Niners “Field goals count too! 2 tds + 3 fgs”
    Twinfan1: 30-24 Niners “I don’t think we can win based on last year’s formula.I think they’ll need to throw a lot”.

    • phil fan says:

      Got a couple more:

      rtfirefly: 16-7 Niners. “Defense. Special teams. Ball control. Turnovers.”

      Chris Berman: 24-23 Niners according to Chuck lol

  2. unca_chuck says:

    Looks like Ginn and Jacobs are doubtful for Sunday’s game.

  3. Del Mar Dennis says:

    My liver and pancreas are doubtful for every Sunday. But that doesn’t stop me from sucking ’em down. Tell those guys to suck it up.

  4. Del Mar Dennis says:

    After what happened in the NFC Championship Game, what were the odds that Kyle Williams would be returning punts Week 1 in GB? I woulda said you have a better chance playing the lottery.

    And for the love of Christ, what if he fumbles again on Sunday. I won’t say a bad word about him. But I’ll be demanding Baalke’s and Harbaugh’s heads on a a goddamn spear.

  5. unca_chuck says:

    Did you see LMJ trying to return punts? He looked like Blind Lemon Chitlin out there.

    Ginn’s out, and KW looks like he at least learned the crucial skill of running away from the football.

    • Del Mar Dennis says:

      I just heard Barrows on KNBR. He was a tad politer than your “Blind Lemon Chitlin” comment, but he basically said the same thing. LMJ has NO business being out there catching punts. I guess we all should light a few candles and hope and pray for the best with KW.

  6. Del Mar Dennis says:

    All those Saint’s “Bounty” players just won their appeal case and can play on Sunday. Good for them. I thought that was total BS from the start. Go ahead and punish management all you want, but the players are already getting paid to bust skulls. Just let these guys play and hit each other like they and the fans all want.

  7. unca_chuck says:

    I dont give a shit either way. It seemed pretty harsh for Vilma to be singled out though. Fuck the coaches and front office. They are the ones who are supposed to deal with this kind of shit. Instead, they promoted it.

    • Nipper says:

      Yeah I agree. BLEEP the sanctions against the players. The coaches deserve everything that is coming to them.

  8. winder says:

    Dallas Cowboys Suck, I just wish we were playin em this year.
    .
    I’m glad for the players, “the best offense is a good defense” what does that really mean? I’ll tell you what it means, it means hammer em till they done, just to it cleanly.

    • winder says:

      Great win, Timmy looked shakey at times but pitched good enough.
      Anyway I predicted the Niner game over at skeebs so i will pick the same here 24-17 Niners.

      • phil fan says:

        Updating our peerless pigskin prognosticators Niners vs GB:

        Chuck: 28-20 Niners “Take advantage of their young D and lousy corners to build a lead, and then get after Rodgers”. “7 FG + 1 TD”

        Phil: 27-24 Niners “Cowboy gonna eat the OL tackle fer lunch”

        Del Mar: 34-20 GB “In favor of the team with the better QB.”

        12th man: 23-21 Niners “Field goals count too! 2 tds + 3 fgs”

        Twinfan1: 30-24 Niners “I don’t think we can win based on last year’s formula.I think they’ll need to throw a lot”.

        rtfirefly: 16-7 Niners. “Defense. Special teams. Ball control. Turnovers. Same as Super Bowl IIl. Surprise attack. Kill ‘em with defense.”

        Chris Berman: 24-23 Niners according to Chuck “Col- chuckling out loud”

        winder: 24-17 Niners. “Same call I made at Sasquach’s”

        Sasquach ripped off my Scoring Challenge? Figures

      • Grumpy Guy says:

        I have no faith in any of these, including mine, but since everyone else is throwing one up, I will too. 22-16, 49ers. I’m not sold on the GB Offensive line. Or our red zone offense, just yet. Most people think it’ll be a high scoring game, so I’ll take a relatively low one just to be different.

  9. phil fan says:

    …Or maybe scoring predictions are not aggregated over there like us advanced types here? God knows there ain’t much aggregating over there, chuckling out loud…

  10. phil fan says:

    Gotta a new icon of Smith’s finest moment against the Saints. Click for larger image. Image approved by Del Mar Dennis. Can you spot Matt Maiocco in there?

  11. rtfirefly says:

    There is no key to beating Aaron Rodgers. He can beat a team through the air and on the ground.
    He’s a young Super Bowl Champion.
    Ignore the Pack run game for the most part, but not completely. A couple gap blitzes early by Patrick (great name!) could set the tone if you guess right.
    Stop the pass! Much easier said than done, but the Lambs used to play a bend-but-don’t break zone cover (they did get creative in their zones, they varied in their failure) game after game after game. Montana would pass for 300 yards plus every Sunday game after game. The Lambs never did figure it out.
    Buddy Ryan did, as did Bill Parcells.
    It’s a simple game. You throw the QB, you hit the QB, you catch the QB.

    Chuck, I still have nightmares about the September national TV Monday Night Football game against the Vikes. Niners in the Midwest, on the road on national TV. With a lead and minutes to go!
    The Niners were 2 wins, 0 losses.
    They went to a 3-1-7 with Patrick in the middle. A freakin’ 3-1-7 against Bret Favre. 40 minutes the Vikings had not scored a single point and we went to a 3-1-7 like an afterthought at the last minute.
    We’ve beat up on Mark Roman; his endzone blunder cost the game, the Niners momentum for the season, and probably Sing’s job.
    What do you expect when you give a HOF QB 15 seconds to throw?
    Rodgers will beat you the same way, and every other way but Sunday. Keep a spy on him to keep him from the edges, blitz on and off (depends how they guy can hide it, Rodgers can read it as well as any QB in the league).
    PRESSURE! Don’t let Green Bay control the game. At home, at Lambeau?

  12. Nipper says:

    Defense better show up for this one!

  13. unca_chuck says:

    SIng, and Nolan before him both would abandon things that worked all game only to be shocked when changing strategies failed. Over and over. I mentioned the Indy game a couple days ago. THe Niners scored a TD in the 2 minute drill with ease by going no-huddle. Of coursem, they never did that again the rest of the game. Ludicrous. In the end it all worked out because Nolan/SIng is GONE.

  14. Del Mar Dennis says:

    Some 49ers’ player props courtesy of Bovada Sports.

    Alex Smith – Total Passing Yards in the 2012 Regular Season
    Over/Under 3300

    Alex Smith – Total Passing Touchdowns in the 2012 Regular Season
    Over/Under 20

    Alex Smith – Total Interceptions thrown in the 2012 Regular Season
    Over/Under 13

    Frank Gore – Total Rushing Yards in the 2012 Regular Season
    Over/Under 950 ½

    Frank Gore – Total Rushing Touchdowns in the 2012 Regular Season
    Over/Under 7 ½

    Michael Crabtree – Total Receiving Yards in the 2012 Regular Season
    Over/Under 850 ½

    Michael Crabtree – Total Receiving Touchdowns in the 2012 Regular Season
    Over/Under 5

    Randy Moss – Total Receiving Yards in the 2012 Regular Season
    Over/Under 600 ½

    Randy Moss – Total Receiving Touchdowns in the 2012 Regular Season
    Over/Under 4

    Mario Manningham – Total Receiving Yards in the 2012 Regular Season
    Over/Under 600 ½

    Mario Manningham – Total Receiving Yards in the 2012 Regular Season
    Over/Under 4

    Vernon Davis – Total Receiving Yards in the 2012 Regular Season
    Over/Under 850 ½

    Vernon Davis – Total Receiving Touchdowns in the 2012 Regular Season
    Over/Under 6 ½

    Patrick Willis – Total Tackles & Assists in the 2012 Regular Season
    Over/Under 125 ½

    Justin Smith – Total Sacks in the 2012 Regular Season
    Over/Under 7

    Aldon Smith – Total Sacks in the 2012 Regular Season
    Over/Under 10

  15. Del Mar Dennis says:

    So the projected line on Alex this year is 3300 yds, 20 TDs and 13 INTs.
    Conversely, the projected totals on one Peyton Manning are 4250 yds, 30 TDs and 15 1/2 INTs. But you guys think we’re better off with Alex. Fucking mooks. I need a drink.

    • Nipper says:

      Sorry Dennis but 36 year old QBs don’t inspire much confidence. His HOF career is in the rearview mirror.

  16. 12th man says:

    Oh I think you’ve stumbled upon something us mooks have missed until now, how clever of you. Manning is a better QB than Smith, an amazing revelation only you can discern Dennis.

    Manning is very expensive and a higher than average health risk, he is also at the back end of his career. The decision was based on risk/reward and future salary cap rammifications, all things consider management thinks we should go with Smith and have Kappy back him up, I’m ok with that decision.

  17. 12th man says:

    More interesting is Alden at 10 sacks

  18. Del Mar Dennis says:

    “Manning is very expensive and a higher than average health risk,”

    Cap space was NOT an issue. And this higher than average health risk issue is total bullshit. Up until last year, Manning never missed a start in 13 yrs. He missed the season, and is now HEALTHY once again. You want to talk health risk? Look at fucking Alex and the number of games he’s missed due to injury. He’s one sack away from busting his shoulder again. Don’t give me that shit.

    • 12th man says:

      B.S. Dennis, when they were chasing Manning no one knew if he could even throw the ball, tha’ts why HarMon dressed up in gillie suits to watch him throw and he hadn’t been medically cleared to play. To say he is healthy is something he himself has not claimed. Yes we could afford him, just, but not without ramifications on the near term future of the roster.

      • Del Mar Dennis says:

        He looked pretty damn healthy and effective when we played him in the preseason just a few weeks ago. The funny thing is if by chance Peyton would have come here, you’d all be clamoring that he’s healthy and all the doctors have cleared and deemed him fit to start the NFL season. But he’s not here so everyone says he’s washed up and an injury waiting to happen and wishing for it to happen to make you all look good. Bunch of fucking hypocrites.

      • 12th man says:

        True Dennis, months after the decision to pass on the Niners, his or ours, he is back playing well albeit without the usual zip and missing the long ball, also without anybody gameplanning against him. You want credit for guessing he would play this season it’s all you man. The organization doesn’t have the luxury of guessing with 30 million bucks.
        Your pitch is that he is no more risk than anyone else and you keep saying it with a straight face apparently. An old QB who’s skill returning skill level was a complete unknown, coming off an entire lost season, with 5 major neck surgeries is no more a health risk than the average QB? Gimmie a break.

      • Del Mar Dennis says:

        It’s not only my pitch thinking he’ll make it through the season. Vegas thinks so as well. You think they set his O/U on TDs at 30 because they think he’s a big injury risk? Shit. That number is based on a full 16 game season. If Vegas thought Manning was a dead duck, that number would be half that. But Vegas can’t project or predict injuries. Not even on a guy like Manning who you and many others consider a health risk.

        I bet’cha Manning starts as many or if not more games at QB this year than Alex. Care to wager a bottle of Christmas booze?

      • 12th man says:

        Vegas isn’t offering a barometer on Mannings health or anticipated longevity this season, where did you get that idea from? He is the starting QB, historically he has produce x and the team strength v schedule of teams to play gives them a mathmatical outcome.
        It lends nothing to your argument that he is the same health risk as anybody else.

        I love this “wanna bet on it” play. If I refuse it means I don’t have the courage of my convictions so my argument is weak and I should shut up right?

        It’s schoolyard stuff Dennis.

      • Del Mar Dennis says:

        I bet you had your lunch money stolen on a regular basis back at the schoolyard. Just like Alex when it comes to throwing the ball deep: Pussy.

      • 12th man says:

        Like I said, schoolyard stuff Dennis, you can do better.

  19. Del Mar Dennis says:

    I hope this chart copies well…

    Rank QB Team Possible games Played Missed % started
    1 Eli Manning Giants 119 119 0 100
    2 Philip Rivers Chargers 96 96 0 100
    3 Joe Flacco Ravens 64 64 0 100
    T4 Andy Dalton Bengals 16 16 0 100
    T4 Cam Newton Panthers 16 16 0 100
    6 Blaine Gabbert Jaguars 15 15 0 100
    7 Christian Ponder Vikings 11 11 0 100
    8 Aaron Rodgers Packers 63 62 1 98.4
    9 Mark Sanchez Jets 48 47 1 97.9
    10 Josh Freeman Buccaneers 41 40 1 97.6
    11 Matt Ryan Falcons 64 62 2 96.9
    12 Drew Brees Saints 158 153 5 96.8
    13 Peyton Manning Broncos 224 208 16 92.9
    14 Tom Brady Patriots 174 159 15 91.4
    15 Jay Cutler Bears 80 73 7 91.3
    16 Ben Roethlisberger Steelers 124 113 11 91.1
    NFL average 2171 1947 224 89.7
    17 Carson Palmer Raiders 122 107 15 87.7
    18 Matt Hasselbeck Titans 176 154 22 87.5
    19 Tony Romo Cowboys 91 78 13 85.7
    20 Matt Cassel Chiefs 63 54 9 85.7
    21 Michael Vick Eagles 110 90 20 81.8
    22 Sam Bradford Rams 32 26 6 81.3
    23 Matt Schaub Texans 80 64 16 80
    24 Colt McCoy Browns 27 21 6 77.8
    25 Alex Smith 49ers 86 56 30 65.1
    26 Kevin Kolb Cardinals 23 14 9 60.9
    27 Matthew Stafford Lions 48 29 19 60.4

    Again. Don’t give me any of this health shit. EVERY QB is just one hit away from landing on the IR. You take a chance on every snap. Or as Lt. Frank Drebin said, “You take a chance getting up in the morning, crossing the street, or sticking your face in a fan.”

    • 12th man says:

      Nice chart, it isn’t very specific about dates and since Manning has had a long career he is able to amortize his entire lost 2011 season yet maintain an above average “health” record, all of which is absolutely meaningless on the subject at hand.

  20. Nipper says:

    Dennis is busy with numbers instead cleaning the stable.

    • Del Mar Dennis says:

      I never clean the stable the day before a Niner game. It’s gonna look like a cyclone hit it tomorrow. Why bother? I’ll try and p/u the shovel on Monday if I’m not too hungover. Who am I kidding? Make it Tuesday.

  21. Del Mar Dennis says:

    Definitely Tuesday…

  22. winder says:

    Mucken stalls, some has to do it.
    It will be a cheerful task when the Niners pound old Rodgers and GB into the dirt.

  23. winder says:

    someone. Jeeze I gotta watch what I type

  24. rtfirefly says:

    Peyton won his only Super Bowl when Tony Dungy was in charge and brought the Tampa 2 with him.
    John Elway is in charge now. He sucked as a car dealerhip owner, but I do believe he QB’d 4 Super Bowl teams and coulld outrace another athlete-turned exec Dwight Clark Former General Manager of the Niners. in a game of “How Do Spell Cat”.

    Undead Dead’s team is gonna get smoked this year.

  25. rtfirefly says:

    I’m not sure if My Guy Nate could beat Dwight, though. I’ll have to see him playing for the Venom!

  26. Del Mar Dennis says:

    Winder, that’s a beautiful pic in your avatar. Is that near you in Oahu? I’m jealous. I’d like to be there myself. Almost as much as I wanted Peyton Manning to be here.

    • winder says:

      I wish it was. That is one of my all time favorite places. It’s a place called Pyramid Lake. It’s in Nevada off of 395 going toward Susanville from Reno. It is a Glacial lake with beautiful water and if you have a few beers it looks something like landscape from another planet. I watched too much Star Trek when I was a kid. lol

  27. rtfirefly says:

    My brothers’s team, the San Diego Chargers, smacked Peyton dpwn hard in the prime of his career, the Chargers a nobody and Indy (what a useless town, have you ever been there)?) huge favorite.
    Then they repeated the performance thie next year. Tony Dungy was sorely missed.
    Peyton’s not the best ever, despite all the hype. Roger Staubach, Fran Takrenton. Better QB’s then Peyton.
    But he sure is unbelievable when he is healthy.

  28. rtfirefly says:

    “Tarkenton”. Better Scramble than Lose is a pretty decent little book.

  29. Staubach and Tarkenton better than Manning? That’s preposterous. Capt. Spaulding wouldn’t even say something so outrageous. Best you go see Dr. Hackenbush and have a nice long session lying on the couch.

  30. Grumpy Guy says:

    As to GB’s INTs in Chuck’s OP: I wonder how many were picks of desperation passes after teams were deep in the Rodgers Hole? It’s easy to get more picks when your QB is forcing the other team to throw 30 times just in the second half.

    The trick is not to get stuck down in that hole to start with.

  31. twinfan1 says:

    Zits vs. Kershaw
    Alex vs. Rodgers
    There’s a lot of money to be made tomorrow.

  32. Del Mar Dennis says:

    Here’s a prop bet Chuck will love…O/U on the total yds. of Crabtree’s first catch is 10 1/2. You know goddamn well it’s going to be a 3 or 4 yd square out. Bet the UNDER!

  33. 12th man says:

    Broncos are all in with Manning, they released the back up Caleb Hannie, leaving only the rookie Brock Osweiler, that’s confidence for ya.

  34. rtfirefly says:

    Times have changed. If money wasn’t a problem, Elway would have kept Tim Tebow to watch and learn from The Master. 1987 all over again.

  35. twinfan1 says:

    No one can possibly believe that they think Manning doesn’t still face a significant injury risk. If they’re really going with just the rookie, I think that’s a big mistake, IMO.

  36. rtfirefly says:

    I could dance with you until the cows come home. On second thought, I’d rather dance with the cows until you got home.
    Did somone call?

  37. unca_chuck says:

    Oh, Dennis. Can’t help yourself, can you? Yeah, every QB’s a hit away from the disabled list.

    But to think your list means anything is ludicrous. IT’s retarded, even for you.

    • Del Mar Dennis says:

      A chart that shows a QB’s starts and games missed due to injury is irrelevant? That’s almost as asinine as your Raider pick to win the AFC West. Next you’ll be telling me completion % and YPA don’t matter either. You just don’t like who’s #25 on the list. Tough titty.

  38. phil fan says:

    It was a damn close thing last year for Denny…coupla punt returns from the big dance. He dodged one there but I don’t think it will be the end of the woild for him if we do go- and win. What would happen when that fixed belief collides with SB trophy VI? Love to find out.

  39. Del Mar Dennis says:

    And to answer your question, NO today is not a “Must Win” game. I’ve already put this one in the loss column. And although none of will admit it as well, I’m sure you’ve put this one down as one of the 5 or 6 L’s (depending on your prediction) for the season.

    Next week vs Detroit will be a “Must Win.” Fall to 0-2 and the natives will not only be restless, but they’ll be throwing cabbage and tomatoes at the starting quarterback.

  40. Flavor says:

    No, it’s not a must win game, Chuck– it’s just one of 16. And since I think we’re losing today I’m not going to bother picking a score. But I will go on record with a season record prediction for the Niners: 14-2 and a SB win over New England. It’s going to be a fabulous year if you are, in fact, a true Niner fan. Hell, the band wagon jumpers will have their usual jolly-clueless time as well.
    I haven’t seen a single Niner football play since The Kyle Fuck Me Game–pre-season not only doesn’t do it for me but it interrupts my focus on the Giants.
    But you’d have to kill me to stop me from watching this game today.
    Bring it on!!!!!!

  41. rtfirefly says:

    Bandwagon jumpers? Is that the new moron term for haters?
    Where were you when Roman Gabriel and the Fearsome Foursome beat the Niners 19 times in 10 years?
    Speak up Skippy. I’m listening.

    • Flavor says:

      Listen up you fuck— I’ve been there since the first super bowl. I also, correctly, predicted that Smith would flourish under Harbuagh BEFORE last season even started. So if I say they’re going 14-2 then you fucking bury your face in the pillow, stick your ass in the air and take the punishment of the truth that I’m speaking to you.
      Do not fuck with me you simple fuck………

  42. 12th man says:

    looks like HarMon came to the blog and read what was said. Came out throwing the ball, good run game and hitting the field stretchers. Refs were not good. D was unusual but effective. 1-0 baby 1-0

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