Bleeech. The 2013 season came to a resouding thud last night as Richard Sherman tipped a Colin Kaepernick pass intended for Michael Crabtree that was intercepted as time was winding down. Sherman of course classed the joint up by giving the choke sign and screaming at Erin Andrews as his team celebrated their trip to the Super Bowl. God, I hope they lose the Super Bowl. Don’t want to think about or mention the game. Might as well look ahead.
What happens now will be interesting to say the least. Donte Whitner’s a free agent, but he has stated numerous times he wants to stay here. Carlos Rogers is the one on shakey ground. He’s scheduled to make $13.5 mill over the next 2 years, and he’ll be 33 come summer time. With Chris Culliver hopefully coming back from injury, Brock and Brown playing well, and Perrish Cox as the backup, I think we can lose him, and he’d only be around $3.5 mill of dead money. Plus we’ll draft for DB help as well. The linebackers are locked in for the next couple years, and even Dan Skuta is signed through next year. You have to wonder how much longer Justin Smith can play at this level, but he showed he doesn’t seem to be slowing down. He’s got one more year as well. Tarell Brown, who mistakenly lost out on $2.2 mill this season by not participating in team-scheduled practices, did get a bump from the Niners in December, but they still need to decide what to do with him. I’d say sign him. Adios Carlos.
Offensively is where things get sketchy. Michael Crabtree has one year left on his contract, as does Colin Kaepernick. Those 2 stand to cash in very heavily, and the Niners may try to work on contract extensions before they hit the free market next year. Mike Iupati is down to his last year as well, and with the extension of Anthony Davis, you have to wonder how hard they’ll want to hold on to Iupati. He may end up a cap casualty, but I think they’ll at least try to sign him this offseason to a multi-year deal. Crabs likely wants something in the $50-60 mill/5 year range. He came back ahead of schedule and played outstanding ball, so you’d think they will go hard to extend him. Kappy? Well, had he won yesterday his numbers would have gone up. As it is, the Niners could hedge their bet and not re-up til the contract ends after next season. This could prove to be very costly, as the Baltimore Ravens recently discovered. Sign him up front, and you control some of the cost, but his star-crossed career has already had more that its share of big wins and crushing losses. Can they make another deep playoff run 4 years in a row with Kappy at the helm? Or do they draft his replacement and play out the string? I don’t see that happening, but do they want to tie themselves to a 5 year $120 mill deal with him? I think we draft a QB at somewhere around the 3rd round just to be on the safe side.
Whatever the case, Crabs and Kappy are set to cash in. Beyond that, there are a lot of instant free agents as of now. The list is:
WR Anquan Boldin
CB Tarell Brown
CB Perrish Cox
K Phil Dawson
RB Anthony Dixon
C Jonathan Goodwin
WR Mario Manningham
QB Colt McCoy
WR Kassim Osgood
S Donte Whitner
CB Eric Wright
Off the top, I think Manningham, Pea Shooter McCoy, Goodwin, Wright, and Boobie are gone. The obvious concerns are Anquan Boldin and Tarell Brown. Boldon is 33, but his impact on the success of the team was pretty much off the charts. He and Kappy developed a quick rapport and without Boldin, I don’t think this team even makes the playoffs. But he’s going to want 3 years at least. And with Crabs set to break the bank, I’m not sure how they handle this. I’d think with Rogers coming off the books, they’ll try to keep Brown, with Culliver hopefully recovering from his knee injury.
Phil Dawson was money as well, but he shouldn’t cost all that much. Keep him. Cox and Osgood shouldn’t cost too much either. Get them back as well.
Beyond that, all these upcoming deals have the huge caveat of the 49ers moving into their shiny brand new stadium. They aren’t going to want to lay a big fat egg once they get there, so I wonder how this affects their thinking, if at all. One would think that they will maybe spend more than the may want to to keep the core group together, and make sure they have a strong team going into the 2014 season. They can pass the buck til 2015, but by then the team could be stripped of a lot of good players and we hit another rebuilding session. Will Harbaugh be up for that? He’s looking for a new fat contract himself, and he certainly burns brightly as he moves around the coaching sphere. Will he get itchy feet?
Forty Niners Forever 
Even if they get a burner that has has hands and can run a route, then what? Ginn had 35 recepts w/a 15.4 ave/catch and 5 TDs this year at Carolina. Where was that last year? Was it because he was loafing last year, or suddenly figured out how to catch balls this year? No. It had to be the Niner scheme, and how he was used. And, it wasn’t like the Niners had an all world WR corps last year to keep a mediocre talent like Ginn off the field, or not targeted when on it. The Niner offense has to get off its ass re: throwing the ball, and really change things up. This bullshit offense they have is wasting the talent available on that side of the ball, and certainly isn’t up to supporting its side of the ball compared to that excellent D on the other side. Reminds me of the 2009 and through now Giants — great pitching, crap offense, with seemingly no end in sight for the crap offense…
Harbaugh is happy with his players and his offense. If this is so, then what?
How do you know he’s happy?
There were breakdowns in all three phases: the long kickoff return after a Niner score, Whitner’s small but critical 58 yard error in pass defense, taking his eye off his man to position himself better to hit a scrambling and possibly running Wilson despite Wilson not crossing the LOS, Seattle’s 3rd and 17 becoming a long TD in 2 plays, Kappy’s several blunders (where is ALEX when you need him!), including but not limited to not seeing the rusher from his vision (passing right) side on two different turnover plays, and blowing the fade by throwing it to Crabs’ INSIDE…, the offensive sieve on both running plays and pass protect… In short, a team loss.
No reason to throw out the baby with the bathwater, but changes on offense MUST be made, whether in personnel, tactical play calling, or strategic philosophy – arguments could be made for all three.
Me, I’m still kicking the cats. Hmmm, I don’t own a cat, must be somebody else’s.
They need to draft a T, a G, and two WRs (let ’em compete) at the least. Toss in a S, a CB, and a D down lineman and call it a draft.
Yeah, I know. Getting a fast guy doesn’t guarantee we will use him. Hello Randy Moss. Ginn’s failures here were likely boredom. But his punt returning sucked. Say what you will about Alex, but 2 quarters into a game, he’d have completed passes to 5 different guys. Not sure why our offense is so adverse to spreading the ball around. Kappy bears the brunt of some of this, but certainly not all of it.
Again, to me, it comes back to the simplistic passing offense. No slants, no screens, no go routes. We use sluggos, or double moves very rarely. All the passes appear to be deep outs and the occasional comeback route. What they used to call the buttonhook. From gleaning what I see, Kappy appears to be directed to go to the 1 at all cost. It doesn’t appear they WANT him to read and react to the defense. It’s run or pass. 2 plays. Rarely audibling or switching out. Again, it SEEMS to me like this is the design. Little flexibility. No creativity. Except for busted scrambles.
Maybe I’m wrong, and this all falls on the shoulders of Kappy. If so, then these coaches need to get him to be able to scan the field better than he has. Coach him up as to the nuances of the quick read.
From what you said, seems to me the coaches don’t feel he’s capable of handling complexity, or at least not yet, and they don’t trust him. But, I hear just the opposite of that from everywhere, he’s supposedly smart, and did well in school, good instincts, etc. Which is it?…
I heard somewhere (but I can’t find it) that Alex Smith said the control Harbaugh and Roman had over the plays was very stifling. And it certainly is when you only have 2 options per play.
The draft will be RB friendly, as well. Add in that the only Niner draft prediction I’ve ever gotten right was Nate The Great, and expect the Niners to do something completely different.
Chuck,
If you have a Peyton Manning passing game your running game might see some success out of the gun with a single back in the backfield. If OTOH your running game is your game you might need double teams to make holes and a lead blocker to clear the backer out of it as a rule.
If it was as simple as you have it you’d never see any team running from a tight formation.
Certainly changing things up finds success sometimes. And when you’re inclined to the change up you’ll trot that play out as some proof that it should be done that way all of the time.
We’re not that easy a defense to run on but take the Seahawks’ series that ended with a rushing TD; First down, tight formation, run up the middle, resulted in a first down. First down, tight formation, run over left tackle for four yds. Second down, spread ’em out, screen pass for four yards or so. Third and one, tight formation, run up the middle for a forty yard TD.
You say that’s not the way to run?
It’s not the way for us to run. Besides, Gore breaks those oncve in a while himself. I don’t think it’s worth the other 99 one-yard gains.
He’s ranked third in post-season yardage behind Lynch and Blount. Ninth in regular season yards while tied for eighth in attempts. He’s had one fifty plus run and five more in the 20-34 yard range. The rest under twenty. He must break one more often than once in a hundred one yard or negative yard runs to average 4.1 yards on the season.
Whatever NoFear. Can’t you believe what you saw? What did he get on Sunday? I’m not the one throwing Gore under the bus. I think they can use him in different formations.
Worth reading, even if you hate the SOB.
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/greg-cosell-playoff-film-review-let-check-richard-213846006–nfl.html
Chuck I’m high on several WRs that I’ll be trying to see during the Scouting Phase, leading up to the Draft.
Yes we need speed but, Patton brings that now.
I’m thinking, since we have to compete with the Seattle Secondary in terms of muscle and height, a taller, perhaps somewhat slower option isn’t the worst thing for us.
A WR in the 6’2″-6’4″ range would be ideal, if we get one that’s physical enough, to bust press coverage.
I could sacrifice a few 1/10ths of a second for a kid that plays like Anquan.
Boldin is not fast, nor is Crabtree.
We need a physical presence. A younger battler.
Guys that leap are fine, except you don’t get much but possession results from them typically.
I’d consider a taller inside option along with a shorter slot guy going into the Draft.
WR Jordan Matthews from Vandy and both guys from LSU, Beckham and Landry are already on my radar.
WR Davante Adams from Fresno might be a nice name to throw into that slot option.
As for DBs, Gotta get taller in the Secondary at both CB and SS.
Many questions, many Picks waiting to spend too.
I’ve got a pretty hefty list of possibilities going now.
I’ll whittle it down as we go.
Yes whittle away………..brevity is a blessing.
Be better to be talking about SB prep Nipper.
Relegated to Draft analysis now.
But yes, BLEEP the Seachumps.
BLEEP the Sea birds.
Phil – to your point about Iupati, I’m only suggesting that his asking price may preclude us from keeping him.
Since Anthony is young and already extended, he could be a contingency option?
I’d definitely like to keep Iupati, no question.
Center has to get younger and quicker, which is likely already covered with Kilgore.
We need WRs/DBs of course.
Can’t go wrong with some additional youth on the DL either.
With the number of Picks Baalke has at the ready, we’ll probably shop for a handful of developmental prospects later in the Rds to help with the ST duties too.
Not sure if LMJ is our answer at the PR position just yet either.
A quick twitch kid with PR skills, at any position, wouldn’t hurt us either.
There’s a little RB from Kent St, Dri Archer, that could fit that bill.
Would be better to be talking about how to defeat Manning in the SB, true but we have ‘next year’ instead. Maybe I’m getting mellow in my old age or think we’ll be competitive next year if not world beaters and losing in the NFC Championship is not so bad. Lord after near 10 years of utter crap I can accept this season’s outcome even with all our flaws. Going to be hard signing all our talent tho. Hope we can keep Iupati, Boldin, Whitner
Saw an article about how “the trend of leg injuries continues for 9ers at Seattle”. (I Williams, Iupati, Bowman). It quickly disappeared or I couldn’t find it again but got me thinking- 3 times is a pattern already; this is just a coincidence, right? Sneaky Pete I dont trust. Wish I had decent replays to see what was going on during those plays. Wouldn’t put it past them up there…
Hey Phil,
Looked like Iupati leading Dixon engaged the MLB and Staley blocked Mebane into Iupati and collapses both onto Iupati’s leg. And Reid was one of the guys that fell on Bowman IIRC.
Yes, the Broncos must win now. And they will!!
Thanks NF. Guess its just the nature of the game and a brutal dog fight with those guys. We certainly couldn’t afford losing MI in that one, damn. No run game no win…
Yeah cheering for the AFC will be a first for me but no way to go with the cheat hawk drug addicts. How the hell did we wind up cheering for the same team as Del Mar?
BTW I’m okay with the Bronks beating those guys. Anything will be better than hearing them and their fans brag for the next year. Fuck that. Go Broncos!
It’s justified to feel that way Phil.
I learned years ago that all the emotion involved after a big loss wasn’t doing me any good.
I enjoy the Team more now then I did since our last SB victory.
We’re back on the Playoff radar and, the future is bright with competent people taking care of things.
Well organized, competitive and no antics.
This is without a doubt the first time I’m ever going against the NFC in the SB too.
Seattle deserves credit for their win against us on Sunday but, I happen to feel we were the better Team.
I’m also a conspiracy theory subscriber for this one too.
This has been all about Peyton’s swan song.
I don’t give a flying rat’s A$$ for this matchup. Give it to Peyton if they must.
Just embarrass Sherman in the process.
He too needs a trip to the Heartbreak Hotel.
Punka$$ B!tch.
Bingo. Couldn’t have said it better myself.
Believe the refs and League created that monster (sherman) by letting him/them get away with muggings on the field. If the intent was to boost the relatively small fan base and popularity of that regional brand it worked in the short term. Now the NFL gets to worry about psycho fans and players ruining footballs national image. Drug fueled rants and throwing food at injured opponents indeed (Bowman). Bring down the ‘hawks.
Chuck –
One guy that got the better of Sherman was T.Y. Hilton, all 5’9″ of him.
A little dude that can fly past their coverage certainly isn’t a bad option to try in the WR selection area.
Almost all the WRs, even the taller guys, seem to be hanging in the 4.5/4.6 range from the posted numbers.
Janis from Sag Valley St is tall and, he carries Sub 4.4 numbers right now.
Keep an eye on Robert Herron from Wyoming at the Senior Bowl.
5’9″ with decent College numbers. He’s also listed Sub 4.4.
5’9″ Albert Wilson from GA St is another burner in the same mold.
6’0″ Willie Gibson from Cumberlands goes Sub 4.4 as well.
Marqise Lee from USC would be nice but, I’d assume him to be gone before we’d get a sniff.
All these numbers will get cleaned up when the Combines come around too.
Again, if one of these kids has PR ability too, I’d give it a shot in the later Rds.
And, we only see so many Prospects via our browsing options.
Our Scouts probably have another 100 guys we’ve never seen from Schools that don’t get the publicity.
We’ve also got WRs Devon Wylie and Chuck Jacobs on the PS.
Wylie – Fresno St – 5’9″ 187 – He clocked in the 4.4 range at the Combines a couple of years back as well.
Jacobs – Utah St – 6’0″ 178 – He’s in the 4.5 Range.
Right now, they’re both longshot guys I’m sure but, we’re hanging onto them for now.
I’m also anxious to see more of CB Darryl Morris.
He made the Team over Marcus Cooper this year and, is roughly the same size as Tramaine Brock.
Word on him is SPEED.
PR/KR ability I wonder?
He posted times in the 4.3 range.
Another UDFA guy going the route of Brock. Small School development guy.
Good video highlight clip here –
http://tinyurl.com/l8ct3el
This is where our Scouts earn their merit.
That’s why I like Odell Beckham. True 4.40 speed and 6′ 0″. My fear is he moves up the board.
Take a late shot as well with one of the speedsters.
I’m not very happy about V McDs progress. I wonder if they draft a TE. I guess Celek can take over.
The caveat being he didn’t get very many opportunities, but I don’t want to bring up the passing game issues again.
New thread is up.