! ~ ~ ~ Countdown to Oblivion ~ ~ ~ !

99 Losses or Bust

We seem to be in the holding pattern of 1 win, 2 losses as this bland flavorless season continues it’s slow march to oblivion.

Looks like the 1985 team of Jimmy Davenport is safe in the knowledge that they will continue to be the one and only 100 loss team in the 144 year history of the NY/SF Gothams/Giants.

I mean, 5 more wins out of 21 games shouldn’t be that hard. Right?

3,387 Responses to ! ~ ~ ~ Countdown to Oblivion ~ ~ ~ !

  1. unca_chuck's avatar unca_chuck says:

    I was one batter (Susac in in the 8th) from turning off the game. When he doubled, I kept watching.

  2. bassbaldy's avatar bassbaldy says:

    I do understand the numbers: the .260 RISP; BABIP. James, I also recall you mentioning all this over past years. But the ‘ol ‘eye test’ sure does come into play for me and it’s difficult to ignore. This season and the last few, we all have witnessed and, at times, commented on our frustration with the Giants with RISP. The jokes abound when the Giants are in scoring position with none, or only one out ”OhOh, G’s have the bases loaded with none out. Watch them FAIL!” Of course, yesterday was the rare exception.

    • unca_chuck's avatar unca_chuck says:

      Yup. Slice, dice, parse, scramble, and cherry-pick them , but the biggest numbers of all of them are:

      28-41

      Those don’t lie.

    • James's avatar James says:

      It’s frustrating for fans of every team, especially the ones that are losing. Every team fails roughly 3 out of 4 times with RISP and the distribution of those failures will be anything but evenly spread out from game to game. The reason the Cubs and Nationals have scored more runs than the Giants is because to this point their offenses have been better overall.

      If you’re a GM, there’s no way for you to plan or expect to have a team that’s “good with RISP.” What you can do is aim to create a roster with players who maximize scoring chances by getting on base and who hit for power and drive in runs without RISP.

      • unca_chuck's avatar unca_chuck says:

        And setting up line up cards that aren’t asinine.

        Or overusing (or underusing) pitchers at your disposal.

        Yeah it’s that manager’s job, but someone has to tell V that Schmitt should not be leading off.

        They have 2 HOF managers and 27 over coaches wandering around the building that would be able to help him out.

        Where Dave Righetti ffs?

      • James's avatar James says:

        Agreed, Chuck, my response to BB was narrowly about the utility of one stat. There’s certainly more the front office can choose to control.

    • xoot's avatar xoot says:

      I agee with BB, it seems strange that the Giants’ numbers are so great for the past 32 days. Oh, they’ve loaded the bases. Bet you they won’t score at all is not a reaction that’s unfamiliar to me.

      And their w/l in that time sucks; 13-17, I think. But five of the wins were blowouts, a couple of them huge, and a couple others were near blowout wins. That’ll skew the stats. Position player pitchers may factor in, too.

      Bottom line, no matter what offensive numbers you parse — the pen really couldn’t be worse.

  3. blade3colorado's avatar blade3colorado says:

    “Of course, yesterday was the rare exception.”

    Frankly BB, I wrote them off yesterday. Eight runs down is a big number. Yesterday, it could have been the 2010, 2012, or 2014 Giants and I still would have written them off.

    For this season’s team? I gave them this much “” chance of coming back. I was wrong. As a team achievement – it is extraordinary. Now, going forward, what I want to see, is if they can use it as an emotional catalyst to finally get over the .400 mark . . . and wait for it . . . the .500 Mt. Everest mark??? Frankly, I don’t know about that. It is doubtful based on what we have seen thus far this season.

    However, Eldridge? I have zero doubt he has arrived. Yesterday was his introduction to the league. He is undoubtedly in my mind, going to be a superstar.

    • Winder's avatar Winder says:

      It also helps that they threw out a couple of lug nuts to pitch the 9th. But everything was aligned for Eldridge and that swing looked real close to Will Clarks. It was pretty.

  4. bassbaldy's avatar bassbaldy says:

    The weirdest thing about this RISP thing that I still got stuck in my craw, is that the Giants lead all of MLB in Hits; Dodgers 2nd; Braves 3rd. That means they are getting on base a lot (not always in scoring position) but, are middle of the pack, or lower, in Runs scored. Which seems to point to the fact that once they get on they cant/don’t/won’t do much.

    • James's avatar James says:

      Because they’ve drawn so few walks, their OBP is 309, which is below the league average. It was a lot worse until recently. And, again, SF is batting 260 with RISP, which is above the league average. They are not in the middle of the pack in runs scored because they fail to hit with RISP; it’s in large part because they haven’t created as many opportunities as other teams, including those who aren’t hitting as well with RISP as the Giants.

      The good news is that the recent outburst that’s “skewed” the stats looks like it might be sustainable, thanks largely to the emergence of Eldridge and Lee, and the correction to Chapman’s numbers (and maybe eventually those of Adames and Devers). Arraez and Schmitt have been there pretty much the whole year.

    • xoot's avatar xoot says:

      I didn’t see which athletic writer Chuck quoted for the post May 10 numbers that started this discussion but I think I see why that writer chose that date. May 1-9 weren’t good. Sort of a manufactured tempest.

    • James's avatar James says:

      If you eliminate 10 hits from the RISP total, you get a 242 batting avg instead of 260. That would reduce the Giants run total by ~12. Subtract 12 from the run total, and their run differential would probably reflect the 28-41 record perfectly (right now it projects to 29-40).

  5. Paul Sorensen's avatar Paul Sorensen says:

    As much as we complain (rightfully so) about the G’s bullpen, the Nats’ pen was ridiculously horrible yesterday. Of course I haven’t gone to a Nats fan page to see what they’re saying, but that was a terrible 2-inning bit. They didn’t even get any outs in the 9th inning. It doesn’t really matter in the end, but sometimes misery does appreciate company….

  6. willedav's avatar willedav says:

    Chuck I was talking about Posey in reference to value of Chapman. As in President of Baseball Operations.

    For all the occasional explosions by offense, Giants are still 11th NL at runs per game, 4.19 though team OPS has climbed to 6th. OBP is still 11th though slugging tied for 3rd.

    As for pitching…12th NL for runs allowed per game at 4.93. Only Nats Reds and Rox worse.

  7. xoot's avatar xoot says:

    across mlb walks are up this season due to abs, yet the giants are down (4.35 per game last year, 3.89 now). Or so lightweight ai says. Cubs are first at 297 total. Mets are 29th at 187. Giants are last at fucking 159.

    I suppose Arraez may account for part of that dearth, a unique trade off that’s fine, I think, but wtf is going on overall? Put the ball in play policy? (Giants are first in hits. In mlb. And I’m surprised to see not bad in SOs.)

    Must be coaching. Put the ball in play policy combined with a failure to master the new ABS zone(s). My guess.

    • James's avatar James says:

      Devers and Adames are both down in BB rate (it’s strange to think of the latter as a patient hitter, but he does usually draw a lot of walks when he’s not flailing at sliders a foot off the plate). There’s about 40 BBs missing between the two of them. Devers especially has been fucking terrible, whiffing 90 times to 22 walks. They’re both hitting in the 230s, so there you have the reason for below avg team OBP.

      • xoot's avatar xoot says:

        when he’s not flailing at sliders off the plate? When the fuck is that? And being below average in obp is a bit different than being on another planet in total walks. But, I suppose, it’s compatible with a put the ball in play policy.

      • xoot's avatar xoot says:

        and Devers leads the team in walks. Not that that’s dispositive.

      • xoot's avatar xoot says:

        sorry. Looks like Chapman leads in walks. Devers is next.

    • James's avatar James says:

      The Buster “put the ball in play, be aggressive” philosophy, along with his “we’re gonna teach the ‘winning spirit!'” drivel mostly just make him look like a goober, I think. I’m not sure how much his wisdom has influenced Devers and Adames to highlight their worst tendencies. Lee and Schmitt are even bigger hackers than Arraez this year, but so far they’ve also made that pay off.

  8. djloo27's avatar djloo27 says:

    This is completely random but I would imagine there are hundreds of others like it. I know career WAR is a cumulative statistic and I never really understood it I guess, but how does this not make it look kind of silly?

    https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/8As0u

    • xoot's avatar xoot says:

      I really like those anomaly war posts. Silly indeed. Often hilarious. If you don’t keep that swath in mind when you look at war, well….

  9. xoot's avatar xoot says:

    Seymour down Walker up. Oh boy.

  10. snarkk's avatar snarkk says:

    If anybody in Vitello‘s coaching staff told him Winn was not a choice to close for Webb, do you think he‘d ignore that? Where were the coaches support?

  11. James's avatar James says:

    WillieD, yes, Mense. Every year there’s a team like the Jays that supposedly have figured out a “different way” when it comes to hitting, something more traditional. Put the ball in play! No launch angles! Meanwhile, the Dodgers just keep focusing on maximizing OBP and slugging percentage.

  12. James's avatar James says:

    I have a sliver of hope for Walker, if only because he’s still been good for a longer stretch (barely) than he’s sucked.

    • xoot's avatar xoot says:

      I think he’s very intelligent for a baseball player and he knows exactly how and why he’s failing.

    • willedav's avatar willedav says:

      Yeah hopefully he’s figured something out in Sac, all you hope for at this point. saw report on bivens that he’s back to working out of pen. After rough start he’s only allowed 5 runs in last 22 innings. Also that Bo Davidson continues to tear up AA, 13-32 with 6 bombs in last 8 games. All top 3 minors teams doing well. Like to somehow catch a game.

  13. James's avatar James says:

    It’s worth looking specifically at who’s responsible for the bullpen’s now shitty overall numbers. The relievers who’ve pitched the bulk of the innings are actually having pretty good years, all with ERAs 3.34 or below and ok to excellent WHIPs:

    Winn
    Brubaker
    Kilian
    Gage (now on IL)

    Most of the damage has been done by Borucki and Walker, and to a lesser degree Miller. Seymour and Beck have been terrible in a handful of innings (12.1) and the numbers are also distorted by the 3 appearances of Koss and Kennedy, and the 2 innings from Wilkin Ramos (12 ER in 5 innings).

    There still aren’t enough arms in the pen. Hentges has been good in his return and Smith has been effective for now. Hope Walker finds it again  . . . .

    • xoot's avatar xoot says:

      I would love to see Walker regain form.

      When the eighth inning comes around, I often remember that Buster traded Tyler Rogers for Butto, Tidwell, and goofball Gilbert.

      • snarkk's avatar snarkk says:

        Buster was right to trade Rogers. He was heading into FAgency. No way the Giants would have paid Rogers what Toronto ended up paying. Buster can be reasonably critiqued for the assets he got in return, but not for pulling the trigger…

      • xoot's avatar xoot says:

        pay a good relief pitcher good money? Right. How did that work out during three in five? He should’ve re-signed Rogers and signed a competent closer.

      • xoot's avatar xoot says:

        kept and re-signed Rogers.

        if ownership told him not to spend money on the pen, Buster’s probably as pissed off as we are.

  14. James's avatar James says:

    As for the starting staff, Ray’s name now needs to be added to Houser and Mahle. Roupp and McDonald both have looked like they should have better numbers than they do. Their FIP is very good, unlike Ray’s. The defensive numbers are unkind to most every current Giant except Bader, Chapman, and Arraez . . . .

    • unca_chuck's avatar unca_chuck says:

      Chappie has 8 errors in 68 games. 19th in the league for 3rd basemen.

      His .959 fld% is 15th.

      He’s part of the problem.

      • James's avatar James says:

        I agree that errors seem to get lost among the fancy stats. But I also don’t have much of a handle on the fancy stats, either. Chapman doesn’t look like he’s made that many great plays relative to the opposing 3rd basemen we’ve watched.

      • James's avatar James says:

        There’s really no equivalent to OPS on the defensive side. A simple stat that uses familiar metrics and distills them into a more complete view of player performance that’s pretty easy to grasp.

      • willedav's avatar willedav says:

        Fielding pct and errors are not best way to value any d stats lol. Errors are totally subjective on official scorer. Sure DRS and others like it are still wonky, but there is some randomness to account for.

  15. unca_chuck's avatar unca_chuck says:

    Reliever ERAs are misleading at best considering the starters have to eat the runs given up by Seymour Butts, Bofucki, Miller, and the rest of the clown show.

    Ray left his game down 3-0 and by the time Seymour Homers left the score was 8-1.

    • James's avatar James says:

      Bullpen ERA again . . . so the argument against it as a metric is the bullpen guys damage the starters’ collective ERA when they allow inherited runners to score. Imagine this scenario:

      Adrian Houser is pitching, has already given up 4 runs and, in the 5th inning, allows two singles with one out, runners on first and third. The manager can either let Houser pitch to the next batter or turn it over to the bullpen. If he lets Houser stay in, what are the chances he allows further damage vs. the guy coming in from the pen? Clearly, Houser is just as likely to give up at least another run as whoever they bring in from the pen. During the course of a season, each time a reliever comes in with runners on, there’s the alternative choice of leaving in the starter. If you were to leave in the starter, inevitably a certain percentage of those times the runners would score.

      In other words, over the course of a season, the *aggregate* ERAs of the starters versus the bullpen are what they are. If anything, relievers who come in with fresh arms for a faltering starter, especially shitty ones like Houser, more often than not reduce the damage and preserve the overall ERA of the starting staff.

      • willedav's avatar willedav says:

        Good point. Since I missed most of the game before comeback, I wanted to ask what was general impression of Schmitt at SS?

      • unca_chuck's avatar unca_chuck says:

        Well, the old parlance was trelievers were firemen.

        You know, put of the fire. Rollie Fingers up to Mariano Rivera came in for situations like 2 on, 1 out or whatever.

        Flash forward to now and relievers just aren’t used that way very much. More often than not, they are coming in to start an inning, not inheriting a mess.

        Granted our relievers have inherited a lot of messes, but that doesn’t let them off the hook. Reliever ERA (RERA?) just doesn’t reflect properly who gave up what or what is really happening.

      • James's avatar James says:

        Willie, I saw Schmitt make an errant throw to first that was still an out, and one other nice play on a ball he nearly muffed.

  16. alleykat69's avatar alleykat69 says:

    I just can’t stand V in his illogical LU which are LUDICROUS!!

    I’ve checked out 2 LU for the game tonight and this what he does again when your hottest hitters are Lee,Eldridge,Arreaz,Chapman
    Expected LU

    1)Schmitt 2) 3)Devers,3)Arreaz 4) Adamesuck ( yes he stays at cleanup killing rallies) Lee 5th?,Chapman 6th? Eldridge 7th ????wtf guess GW Grandslam walkoffs don’t mean squat to move up Susac 8th,Gibby Gimblet 9th

    • blade3colorado's avatar blade3colorado says:

      Are you shitting me AK? Vitello is a fucking imbecile. If Vitello were twice as smart, he’d still be half-witted.

      However, never let anyone tell Vitello that he’s worthless. His organs could fetch a fair bit on the black market. Idiot.

      • snarkk's avatar snarkk says:

        I don’t understand that LU. It is so wrong that it looks like it was done by darts thrown at a roster list. Or, based on hope, not reality. This happened last year, too, with Melvin, with different players — head scratching lineups. Did Roger Craig bat Brett Butler 3rd? Dusty bat Bonds 7th? Those would make as much sense.

        Before Chapman turns cold again, why is he down at the 6 hole? Lee has been on fire, he’s batting in back of 3 of 4 guys that K a ton, so chances are he gets on with 1 or two out, and has a lower chance of scoring. Arreaz and Lee should be at the top, get ahead of the bangers — even if they K a lot, the bangers do bang once in a while, and would homer or double with one or both of those speedier guys on.

        I want to see Cox play more. Screw Gilbert in CF and the 9 hole. 14 games underwater and they’re playing lefty/righty to put Gilbert in there? We know what he’s about. Cox has Speed, F the lefty/righty thing and let him play before Ramos returns. Maybe I’m in a delusion, but with the Cubs in town, Cox looks to me like a potential PCA-type if he can develop…

        .

    • willedav's avatar willedav says:

      Cubs starting Cy Assad tonight (no opener). Last time out he held them to 1 hit in 6.1 innings. Top of lineup (schmitt devers arraez adames) 1-16. Chapman had 2 of team total of 4 hits including game winner to open 10th and drive in cox from 2b, Lee 1 Eldridge 0-3 with BB.

      Dylan Smith shut Cubs down with K and 2 popouts with tying run on 3b.

    • xoot's avatar xoot says:

      if he sticks with that LU, he deserves all the opprobrium and contumely fans and commentators will dump on him. He’ll probably lose the game, too. But if he pulls a good LU out of his hat just before game time with Lee Arraez Devers Eldridge and Chapman up top, I’ll never criticize him again.

      Assad the RH is starting for the cubs, correct? How fortunate that three of our hottest hitters are LH.

  17. snarkk's avatar snarkk says:

    Yeah, the unavoidable return of Walker to rejoin this crap Pen is at hand. KNBR had a stat on him that is interesting: when he enters the game with no runners on, his batting average against is somewhere under .200. When he enters with runners on, its over .400.

    This guy will eventually come in and over his next several appearances he will get hammered at some point. Book it. And, we’ll do the hand-wringing all over. If his slider isn’t under command, he’s hot garbage, and his supposed tough arm angle for batters is meaningless. Even given the horrendous state of this Pen, If he gets a save opportunity immediately now that he’s back, I don’t care if he’s successful at it — Giants management is certifiable…

    • James's avatar James says:

      If over several appearances, he gets hammered once, I’ll take it! I’m worried the hammerings will be more frequent.

      I’m not sure what date range the KNBR stat covers, but over his entire career, Walker has a 247 BA against with runners on. His BABIP against last year was an astronomical 378. The hard hit rate against him was also a career high 36%, but that’s still below league average. In other words, he was very unlucky last year.

      He’s worth taking another look at, given his past success, the alternatives, and the fact that this team is going nowhere because of inadequate pitching anyhow.

      • snarkk's avatar snarkk says:

        He’s worth returning primarily because the Giants have a crap Pen in SF and have burned through their rotating crap Pen alternatives called up from Sac…

  18. blade3colorado's avatar blade3colorado says:

    AK, I am seeing this LU for today versus the one you posted earlier . . . Not certain which one is accurate.

    https://www.mlb.com/giants/roster/starting-lineups

    Regardless, it is just as lame, e.g., the “black hole of the universe” Adumbass is batting 6th; speedy Bryce Eldridge is #2 (i.e., V must have dementia or some kind of memory loss, as he forgot that this guy recently hit a grand slam); slow Jung Hoo Lee whom rarely makes contact, but is a big, big slugger, is batting 5th; and, Chapman is obviously in the dog house at #7, despite hitting the cover off the ball the last couple of weeks.

    Vitello, I’m okay with being the villain in your story. You’re the loser in mine. Moron.

    • snarkk's avatar snarkk says:

      I’ve seen several versions of LUs today, so IDK which one is right.

      Regardless, do the local scribes ever ask Vitello to specifically explain his lineups? There must be SOME rationale behind them, however scrambled it may be. As I always say, this kind of stuff would be under attack by the sports media for any team in any of the eastern cities.

      Yeah, Chapman #7 would have been fine when he was hitting about 4 for 45 or whatever, but now on a hot streak and he’s crushing doubles, they have him in the bottom third? Adames batting any higher than 5th is ridiculous until he shows he can actually stop striking out half the time and the other is dribblers and pops. The Giants piss off their real fans enough because of the quality of play, putting out nonsensical lineups fuels the fire …

  19. xoot's avatar xoot says:

    damn! He pulled a new LU out of his hat? Unfortunately it’s not perfect. He’s one weird son of bitch. But get the hot LHs up there. He’s sort of going with that, I guess.

    • willedav's avatar willedav says:

      mlb.com has Arraez Eldridge Schmitt at top, followed by Devers Lee Adames Chapman Gilbert susac. ho hum as long as somebody get something going vs. Assad tonight and Roupp isn’t at 100 pitches trying to get out of 5th inning.

      If you went strictly by position, Giants OPS is about 100 points higher than that of Cubs lineup tonight. Better at 5 different positions 2b 3b SS (!) DH and RF.

      • willedav's avatar willedav says:

        Susac too over Kelly. so 6 of 9. Only spots they lose are 1b CF and LF barely to Ian Happ.

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