Forty Niners Forever

Never saw the movie, but the 49ers took a big step in at least winning the division. Beating Seattle means a 2 game lead plus the tiebreaker. Not that this is the goal, but it is part of the plan. And, bonus points for passing the semi-unreal Deetroit (paper) Lions. What I thought was very cool about the 49ers victory over the struggling Seahawks was the fact that a lot of the players took the time to look at the Turnkey Day massacre from 9 years ago that saw Russell Wilson and Richard Sherman eating turkey on the logo at Levi’s stadium.

Which led to the turduckenfest on the sidelines of Sofi Field where George Kittle stole the entire turkey. This kind of stuff is usually only noticed by the fans, so it’s good to see the players getting involved.

Fun times in Ninerland. Despite a bit of a let-down in the 3rd quarter, the Niners dominated this game. So, now we have 10 days off before the return trip to Philly to take on the 9-1 Eagles. A win by Buffalo tomorrow would raise the stakes even higher. And if there’s a team due to get their shit together I guess it would be Buffalo. They are on the outside of the playoff picture now and looking to gain on Miami, so they need to pull this off. It would make for an even more epic battle come December 3rd.

Here we go with another short week and a roadie. In Seattle no less. Seattle is coming off a desultory loss to the semi-woeful Lambs, 17-16 on a missed FG as time ran out. Sounds familiar. Amazingly, the Rams have beaten Seattle twice out of their 6 wins. Thanks. They lost to the woefuller Packers. The Ravens crushed them, and Cincy squeaked by them. They’ve beaten even more woeful teams like Carolina, AZ, and the New York-we-forgot-how-to-play-football Giants.

But, they did beat the Deetroit Lions. AND the Cleveland Browns. So, this team is hard to figure. Pistol Pete has them playing over their heads, and they are extremely young, so they are learning on the fly. Geno Smith is playing kinda middling football. He is 13th in yards, 17-18 in whichever rating system you prefer, 12 TDs, 7 picks. They are18th in offensive yardage, 16th in points, 25th in rushing, and 13th in passing. Their run game is fairly quiet with Kenny Walker leading the way with 613 yards,

Defense is much the same middling stuff. 23rd in yards given up, 21st in passing, 19th in rushing defense, and 19th in points. Their claim to fame is they are 10th in turnovers at +3.

But they are the Seahawks. Always a fight, Always a challenge. Metcalfe and Lockett are never easy to deal with. BUT, Russell is gone, and Geno is a unreasonable facsimile., and the Seahawks are banged up pretty badly. Geno is questionable but he’ll likely play. Still, I think we can outlast these guys. But the usual stuff has to be watched. Stupid pre-snap penalties, holding calls, PIs. Win in the trenches, win the turnover battle.

But they NEED to tighten up their 4th quarter game. They cannot fade like they did against TB. That would be a disaster in Seattle.

Color me worried. Yesterday’s game saw the offense play pretty well, the defense pretty well, and special teams pretty well. The offense had a nice robust 420 yards of total offense – 305 in the air, and 115 on the ground. Purdy had a flawless game ratings-wise, posting a 153.8 with 3 TDs and no picks. Rushing saw CMC get 78, and Mitchell 24, and it was nice to see him in the 2nd quarter.

Defensively, the 49ers only gave up 287. 221 in the air and 66 on the ground. 1 TD given up and 1 pick of Mayfield.

Special teams was solid, with a Wishnowski 60 yard punt, and 2 FGs & 3 PATs for Moody.

It all seemed like a fairly solid win, but the big buts are (aren’t there always big buts?) worrisome to me. Once the 49ers got the game to 27-7 late in the 3rd, the offense sputtered badly. The three 4th quarter drives saw two 3-and-outs, a 4th and 1 stop, and a two 1st down drive.

Defensively in the 4th quarter the Niners gave up a 6 play 75 yard TD drive, a 17 play 68 yard drive that ended with a turnover on downs (had TB scored, the game would have been 27-21), and gave up a 51 yard punt return to set Tampa Bay up on our 15 yard line. That drive ended up as a pick in the end zone, but the point remains that if TB converts those two drives the Niners are down a point.

After the pick, the offense did manage to get two 1st downs, but yet again gave the ball back to Tampa before the 2 minute warning.

Shanahan and his inability to close games out is a really big issue to me. Good teams don’t blow those opportunities like Tampa did. Or maybe they do. But if you don’t close out teams, someone WILL but you in the ass and take a game. Our losses weren’t of this comeback variety, but I don’t want this to continue to be Shanahan’s calling card. He HAS to figure out a way to keep drives going and stop letting teams hang around.

Let’s hope we don’t look past Tampa before our goddamn second Thursday night turkeyfest game against the Seahawks. Maybe we can return the favor and eat a turducken at midfield in Seattle, but we have to get past Baker and Mike Evans. TB is 4-5 treading water, but they are only half a game behind the 1st place Saints and could take over 1st.

If we had handled things a little differently we could be in better shape instead of fighting Seattle for 1st place, but here we are. Every game matters. Every win is important. As we just saw, getting a bye week before the playoffs is huge. If we get there, having Philly come here would be much better than the alternative.

Which leads to Baker Mayfield. He of the 10,000 ads and mediocre career. Granted, anyone who plays for the Browns is in for a shit-show. Throw in a team like Carolina that is even worse, or a desperate Rams team, and you have a 31-38 record.

Still and all, 102-64 isn’t bad and 4-5 with TB), and his completion rate is decent at 61.4%, so are we seeing the resurgence of Mayfield? He’s got a great weapon in Mike Evans, who has 43 – 737, and 6 TDs. Good enough for 10th in yards. But that’s it. Rachaad White is 29th in rushing but is a threat out of the backfield, so we have to stop that.

So, there you have it. Stop the screens, hit the baker. Beat these pretenders.

So, this week Florida comes to California in the shape of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Yet another weirdly inconsistent team in a league full of weirdly inconsistent teams. The Succaneers bring the 22nd ranked offense and the 24th ranked defense to the table yardage-wise. Somehow they are 23rd in yards given up, but are 8th in points given up. The +8 in turnovers has something to do with that I’d guess.

They give up a ton of yards in the air, therefore they are pretty stingy against the run. 6th best in run D. Again though, that is because they get cooked giving up 267 in the air, good for 31st. They do have a solid pass rush though with Vita Vea leading the way with 4.5 sacks, so the Niners have to account for him, as well as Shaquill Barrett. For all our defensive prowess, TB has 25 sacks on the year. 2 more that the 49ers.

Offensively, TB is bottom of the barrel. Baker Minshew, Gardner Mayfield, uh, Bakner Minfield is 13th in QBR, but has a decent 14-5 TD/INT ratio. They have no run game however, ranking 31st, so they get one-dimensional in a hurry. Still and all, they’ve only given up 16 sacks for all that throwing.

The question becomes, who shows up for the Niners? The dominating offense and defense that has won 6 games? Or the stagnant, penalty-laden offense and the sieve-like defense that gives up 15 play 85 yard drives?

This season has been strange to say the least, and part of the struggle was due to losing both Deebo and Trent Williams. Their absence from the offense cannot be understated. Defensively? That’s a different kettle of fish, and things would have been a bit different had Wilks not gone cover zero in that fateful Minnesota game. Then again, Moody makes the FG and that is another different outcome. But there is no going back.

My usual concerns are what was bogging us down last week. Penalties. Too many first down mistakes forcing us into 3rd and forever situations. The Niners had 2 turnovers that gave us the ball at midfield or better that resulted in 2 punts. We can’t do this stupid shit against good teams, let alone mediocre ones.

Keep the train a’rollin’ boys.

Well, that was fun. For what it was. Is Jax overrated? Were we due? Whatever it was, the 49ers looked like the team that stormed out to a 5-0 record, not the team that tripped over their dicks and went 0-3. Instead of making Trevor Lawrence look like the second coming of Joe Burrow, he looked more like Nick Mullens.

The much-maligned defense started the game off in fine fashion, ending 3 of the first 4 Jax drives with sacks. 4 forced turnovers by the defense also kept the Jags off the scoreboard. Brocky Purdy was again masterful as he went 19-26 for 296 and 3 TD passes. he got everyone involved, and funny thing is, we did to Jax what teams have been doing to us during the losing streak, and dumping the ball off on screens and short passes to CMC.

The first TD to Aiyuk was a scary affair, but the one thing Purdy did do was get the ball to the only place Aiyuk could catch it. Unferthrow it, and it’s an easy pick, but he got it high enough to give AB the opportunity to grab it. The TD to Kittle came on a pump fake that was pretty crazy as Purdy was surrounded and not in a clen pocket. Both those passes looked scary but the worked to perfection. Even Juice got into the act as he scored on a 22 yard strike late.

The quibbles were too many penalties, and the game should have been decided earlier as we wasted the turnovers forced early. The play Ambry Thomas made was insane as he stripped the ball from Christian Kirk, recovered it, and picked it up and returned it 93 yards for the TD. Unfortunately, half the defense was on the field celebrating as Thomas we running down the field, so they called it back. But the Niners simply marched down the field for a 7 play 81 yard drive capped off by a 23 yard run by Deebo to put the game out of reach.

All in all a solid effort. One they need to build on.

Well, the defense is not gonna get a patsy to warm up with after the break. We get to take on the 6-2 Jax Jags. Trevor Lawrence. 6-2 yet they are amazingly 14th in total offense, 14th in passing yards, and 14th in rus=hing yards per game. And 23rd in defense.

Beating patsies? Sure, but it seems 2/3 of the league is patsies, and we’ve been beaten by 3 in a row. Well, 2. I’ll give Cincy credit. They’ve righted their shit after a shitty start with a hurt Burrow. Travis Etienne is a solid rusher and they can throw with the best of them.

No time like the present to right the ship. Lose this one and we could lose our way entirely.

Well, turns out not actually playing a game was a big help. We got a new pass rusher, and Seattle lost, thus pushing us back to the top of the NFC West. If we can’t get the #1 seed, might as well take the division. Some weird shit. Cincinnati, who just beat Buffalo, have beaten all 4 NFC West teams.

The NFC West teams that did play scored a grand total of 2 FGs. The SeaChicks went down hard 37-3 to Baltimore, AZ went down on the Browns and swallowed a 27-0 loss, and the Lambs laid down on Broadway (Wisconsin) to the tune of a 20-3 loss.

Last year was all about the teams that played us lost the next week. This season, win or lose, teams are revitalized after playing us. Dallas went on a 2-game winning streak after getting their ass kicked by us, and they should have won the Eagles game, but for Dak getting his toe on the wrong side of the sideline on a TD scramble, and their TE getting tackled 2″ short on the subsequent 4th down play. Wanted the Cowboys to win if only to keep us closer to the Iggles, but not to be.

The Steelers, another team we stomped to the curb, is now 5-3 and in the playoff hunt. KC, a team that desperately misses Tyreek Hill, beat Tyreek Hill and the underwhelming Dolphins. Thing is, no one looks really great at this point. We looked like the cream of the crop 3 short weeks ago. Now we are in scramble mode.

We do have Deebo back at practice. Trent Williams is still missing but should be back this week. Banks is out “multiple weeks” with a toe injury, and Javon (surprise) Kinlaw is out again. All that being said, we have to get our run game going again. Purdy has proven to be pretty good at facing blitzes, but as we saw, facing them all the time wears him down, and shit gets a little iffy late.

The JaxJags? Who the fuck knows? They are 6-2, having beaten no one of note. Well, unless the Steelers count.

What a mess this season is. I guess it is better to struggle now than later, but we need to right the Good Ship niner now.

“That’s what I used to do!” said Lawrence Taylor.

Can’t say they aren’t trying. But really, a conditional 3rd round pick for Chase Young is a deal. And the funny part is, if he leave next season, we’d get a conditional 3rd round pick for losing him. Given curse on our 3rd round picks besides, this is still a freebie. Does it help, though? Can’t see how it would hurt, as Clelen Ferrell and Drake Jackson have hardly lit up the sky opposite Nick Bosa, but then again, Nick Bosa isn’t filling up the sack column either.

We ARE getting pressure, but we just don’t get home in time. An issue readily apparent in the Minnesota game, where Cousins threw 45 times with no sacks. Joe Burrow got sackeed 3 times, but it didn’t slow Cincy down at all as they marched up and down the field on our suddenly soft defense. Maybe Greenlaw’s working through injury is hindering the LB in general, but a team that usually flies towards the runners, and stops short passes for short gains is suddenly in hase mode and missing tackles.

And, please, moving Wilks to the field isn’t the cure-all they think it is. It is dumb to think where he watches from bears any meaning on the game prep, planning, and execution of the defense. I wish they had moved on from Wilks, given the timing of the bye week, but he’s gonna be with us one more week. Seeing that we have another young stud QB that moves pretty well and throws big, one has to think that we’d better dial up some defensive schemes that work.

All I see is our standard 4 man rush against a given team’s 5 guys. We aren’t winning at the point of attack. That much is certain, But there are NO adjustments, no stunts, and the blitzes we run have been negated at best, and exploited at thw worst possible time in that Minnesota game. It wasn’t the Immaculate Reception, but it was pretty fucking close. Without that TD, the game goes VERY differently.

Anyhow, congrats to Bruce Bochy and his 4th ring. Well done, sir. Tejas has a strong young team that could very well win a couple more. I wish our ownership group would spend some money. . .

Yeah, we need the time to lick our wounds and healthy up. But a 2-week break to stew over the sudden departure of our defense is gonna lead to tons of speculation. This talk of moving Wilks to the field is pretty stupid to me. He obviously doesn’t want to do it. So, why force the issue when the problem isn’t where he is, it’s where his players are.

This team used to smother short passes and slants with 3-4 guys hitting every WR/RB/TE on every play. Now? Well, we are chasing every pass catcher and are 3-4 yards away from every one. Our dominant D line would stuff every run play for a 0-2 yard gain. Now we regularly get gashed for 5-6 yards. On 1st down. This defense was forcing 3-and-outs 5-6 times a game. Now we don’t get one.

Once all that short shit and run game is rolling, then we are primed to get beat downfield. Which is happening. In the end, the 49ers end up in chase mode. And our second coming of Joe is kinda gagging it up. He;s forcing shit late and it shows.

Four 4th quarter picks in these last 2 games is not finishing strong. Granted, we don’t get the ball nearly as much as we were even at the beginning of the season, but Purdy’s ridiculous fuckup on the 8 yard line was stupid beyond belief. It was 1st down for fuck’s sake! Fall down. Take the 2 yard loss. We should have tied the game there, but instead are still trailing.

And the thing is, the defense finally made a stand. We have great field position at our 45 so, Purdy throws another pick that is returned to our 24. Next play? Burrow TD pass. Game over.

Well, not even then. There’s more.Purdy does bounce back and lead a fairly quick TD drive of 75 yards. The D however is not up to the task of slowing down Cincy. They go on a 6 minute drive of 78 yards. In that drive we didn’t even force a 3rd down, let alone a 4th down.

So yeah. Game over. 31-17. Purdy does lead another drive where he throws another pick that is happily negated by a roughing the passer call. But Purdy then gets strip-sacked.

3 turnovers to finish the game off. Yeah, the defense isn’t playing well. But those turnovers will kill any effort. Our huge early turnover plus has taken a big hit.

Games 1-5 – 9 takeaways, 2 giveaways = +7
Games 6-8 – 4 takeaways, 7 giveaways = -3

Say what you will about our defense, but this offense bears a big part in these losses.