Suppose They Had a Super Bowl and Nobody Came?

Not that this will happen, but I get the sense around here that a lot of people won’t be particularly enthralled with this Super Bowl. And truth be told, I can’t see scalpers getting ANY action to sit in the freezing rain to watch this game. Leave it t0 Goodie Goodell to be so bold as to schedule a championship game in the beautiful winter of New Jersey. Governor Chris Christie is doing his part to help things along by putting a stranglehold on foot traffic to the stadium. If you are lucky enough to stay at a hotel next to Metlife Stadium, you can’t walk the quarter mile to the game. Your choices are getting a $150.00 parking pass, or taking a shuttle Seacaucus, buying a $51.00 bus ticket, and going back right where you started. So, you can drive a quarter mile for $150.00 or take a $51.00 3 minute bus ride. All in the name of security. Funny thing is, the NFL provides $0.00 for the security effort. Instead, they leave that up to the local loan sharks, uh, politicians to work out the logistics. So the city, county, and state taxpayers that pay for the security get hosed by their representatives, get gouged to park, and can’t walk to the game.

Beyond that, there’s a certain amount of who-gives-a-shit ness to this Super Bowl, at least in the Bay Area. Sure, there are some misguided Raider fans that would like to see nothing more than Peyton Manning’s head knocked clean off, but for the most part the Seahawks are teamona non grata around here. Frankly, they are pretty much disliked around the country. Richard Sherman did his team no favors with his ‘LOOK-AT-THE-GREATNESS-OF-ME!’ rant after the NFC Championship Game. And all the blather afterwards just made people across the country turn a jaundiced eye to the cheap-talking blowhards that are Pete Carroll and the Seahawks. True or not, that is the perception.

So what does it all mean? Well, I think this may affect the numbers/viewership of this game. The shitty weather and the fact that the Seahawks are either thought of as punks, or not thought of at all, will drive this game down in the ratings. The playoffs were a HUGE success ratings wise, but this looks to be a bit of a clunker. Sure, it’s a battle of the best offense vs the best defense, but 80% of the people watching the Super Bowl don’t know or care about that. Give them something like Niners/Denver, and the ratings would be much higher I’d think. Two storied franchises with 14 Super Bowls between them (had the Niners made it), Elway/Montana, yadda yadda yadda. Seattle? Grunge, plaid shirts, and slugs. No one gives a shit.

As bad as the NFCCG hurt, and as much as I wanted to see the Niners bury Peyton Manning and Co (I’ve hated the Broncos since the Craig Morton days), I’ll probably watch this game. Comnpletely rooting for Peyton Manning, of course. What about you guys? I’m sure you’ll watch some of it. If only for the commercials.

My hope? Yes, this sucked, but the Niners will win, Super Bowl IL (or is it XLIX?), Illin’ or Xlixin’ either way sounds pretty sick . . . AND they will win Super Bowl L in their new digs to be the first home team to win their Super Bowl since the Niners beat Miami in Super Bowl XIX at Stanford. Anyone here go to that game? Just watched the highlights of it last night. Beautiful stuff. Eric Wright’s int as the ball whistles through the fog was epic.

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About unca_chuck

Lifelong SF 49ers and SF Giants fan
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141 Responses to Suppose They Had a Super Bowl and Nobody Came?

  1. NoFear49er says:

    Hard to believe football lovers won’t be watching just because we aren’t in it. Hell, we’re not in most of ‘em.

    I think you might be off in your perception of the national perception of this game. Lots of fans think the Seahawks are pretty great and playing very good ball. Personally I would allow as they aren’t too shabby and I hope they get their asses handed to them all day long. Especially that blowhard egomaniac Sherman.

    I happened to catch the last ten minutes of the Pro Bowl last night by accident. I had written the game off years ago but damned if they didn’t look like they were almost playing some football. Well, except for Alex. He was Alex, so, hey, I guess so, him, too.

    I thought the new format was another Goodell circus and it probably is. There’s got to be a better way to run that Pro Bowl or maybe just elect players to it and no game is a better way. Not with Goodell, it goes without saying. He’ll probably figure a way to get two games out of it. One in Hawaii and one across the pond.

  2. Nipper says:

    I watched and lucky it was a close game. But this wasn’t real NFL football and it can never be that. It’s just too hard to play real football. I think this game should be banned from existence although the ratings are high enough to sell ads so it stays to live another day. Team Rice v. Team Prime Time? Yeah it was fun but it wasn’t the real deal.

  3. unca_chuck says:

    Anything was beter than what they used to do. At least they tried yesterday. Brees had 4 picks in 20 minutes? Rivers got sacked 5 times? Teammates nailing each other?

    Jerry Rice was on the radio after the team selection, and he said “I’m never doing that again.” He said, I enjoy trash talk as much as the next guy, but 4 hours of sitting with Deion Sanders, and I’d had it. Never again.

    • Nipper says:

      Blah, blah, blah, blah………………

    • Flavor says:

      I can say with pride that I haven’t watched a single play of an NFL pro bowl since the one I went to back in ’92. The number of ho’s that we’re getting shuttled up and down the elevator of the hotel I was staying at (with a bunch of the players) was staggering. That’s just info, not a critique of ho’s

  4. Flavor says:

    I’ll have my exact score bets down, I usually pick 3 or 4 for each team. And I love the “first player to score a td” bet.
    Maybe I’ll get an office pool going. I always say I’m not gonna do it and then find myself rushing around that Friday to do one.
    So I’ll def watch the game and I’ll root for exact scores and shit.
    But otherwise, I’m with you Chuck, there’s nothing in this gm that holds my interest.

  5. unca_chuck says:

    Yeah, the Aptos Club used to do a $100.00 a square thing, $5,000 for the game, $3,000 for the half, and $1,000 each for the 1st and 3rd quarters. Dear old mom won $4,000 one year.

  6. NJ49er says:

    As weather goes here in NJ this time of year, SB Sunday may actually be a balmy affair.
    Having been in the single digits for the past 10 days+, it’s expected to creep into the 30s by the weekend.
    Precipitation is expected and, that puts it on the mendoza line between snow vs sleet or freezing rain.
    What becomes the comical theme here, in terms of Mass Transit, is the brewing scandal unfolding with the GWB (George Washington Bridge) lane closures, involving Gov Christies’ Political Machine.
    If you’ve caught wind of it, I’ll spare you all the play-by-play.

    What it amounts to in essence is, the money grab involving the Fans, who have to buck up $51/head to get to the game.

    Politics in NJ at it’s finest.
    They’ve spent years, decades even, patting themselves on the back, for cracking down on the NY/NJ Mob influences, which were best depicted in the TV Series, The Sopranos.
    In essence, Politics and The Mob competed with each other.
    Now that The Mob has been sent off to prison or, the witness protection programs, the Politicians have it all to themselves.

    No. You can’t make this sh!t up.
    My wish for the SB?

    That the room across from the elevators, on whichever floor that happens to be available in The Heartbreak Hotel, be reserved for NFC West resident douchebag, Richard Sherman, when the final second ticks off the SB clock.
    I’ve opted to work, rather then watch Seattle playing on our home soil.

    Eff Seattle.

    • Yes I’ll watch seeing as it’s a decent hour over here and hopefully live stream not blocked by “Homeland Security/NSA/FBI” which they did last year (the ONE time, self-promoters= Hey lookie here, gotta keep ya safe just fer today) thus sparing me Niner fail. Got to hear it tho = bad enough. My hope is to witness a grand entrance into Heartbreak Hotel by you know who and team.

      Christie tried to cozy up to Dems and that aint workin’

      • NJ49er says:

        Christie cozies up to no one Phil.
        His way or the highway.

        What galls me is, us NJ taxpayers now get to pony up MAJOR coin, to pay the legal expenses for all these clowns in Trenton, while the subpoenas make the rounds.

        Cronyism is richly defined under Christies’ Administration.
        The Mob was relocated from the Docks of Bayonne and elsewhere, to the Capitol Bldg in Trenton.

      • NJ49er says:

        Besides, Christie is a Cowboys Fan.
        In my book, that makes him a douche nozzle of epic proportions.

        But, he’s very well insulated with top notch Lawyers now, as we wait to see which of his lemmings will get immunity and start singing to the Committee.

        Meanwhile, we’ll all continue to enjoy crashing into potholes, because there’s no money in the budgets to get them repaired.
        Life in NJ…….

      • Perhaps his fall from grace will be that of our rivals up north. May it be so but one thing is certain, this ‘go it alone/my way’ act has created numerous enemies who will affect his chances of gaining higher (national) office. Fine with me but I’m over here and out of it…

        So NJ a question: In your considered opinion who do you think has the bigger mouth your
        gov or our friend up north?

      • NJ49er says:

        Sherm is by far the bigger mouth Phil.
        Christie is just a blow hard.
        Big difference between an elected Official and egomaniacal athlete.
        You can shut up the athlete between the numbers.

        The politician has executive privilege :-D

  7. Spitblood says:

    Whomever wins will make a significant stride towards either carving out a solid legacy or starting the beginning of a dynasty. Whomever loses will be thrown to the dogs. Peyton loses and things get ugly for him real quick. Seattle loses, after the — I just puked in my mouth — Richard Sherman side show, and Seattle becomes a real quick after-thought, almost laughing stock. I mean, Sherman has become the face of Seattle, and Sherman is all in, representing a cocky, winning organization who, if they lose, has more egg on their face than a gay porn star. It’s an interesting “Who’s the Biggest Loser?” Super Bowl. If Seattle wins, while the 49ers clearly need to rebuild after their window closed (regardless who sells you differently) Jim Harbaugh’s legacy could become that of the Buffalo Bills and Marv Levy. Harbaugh could become the biggest loser in the blink of an eye. We’re all rooting for Peyton because of it, being good Niner fans. It’s compelling television even if nobody is rooting for a winner. I think it’s safe to say a large part of the nation, not just the 49er nation, is rooting for a loser. Right now, even with the weather looking to be cold, there’s no clear favorite. But Eli did it in Peyton’s house, so why can’t Peyton do it Eli’s house? For my money, Peyton’s no Eli. But I’ve been wrong before…

    • NJ49er says:

      Spit good analogy.
      What I see is, can Denver stop Lynch?
      Peyton obviosly has the credentials to pick apart anyone’s Defensive Scheme.

      Should the weather become slick, which is a highly expected event here, passing becomes risky at best.

      For me, it’s Welker.
      He’ll shorten the throws and slow the Seattle pass rush to the point of ineffectiveness.
      Denver has to find a way to run on Seattle, to even give themselves a chance IMO.
      If Seattle takes away the RBs, it’s anyone’s game.

      Whichever team wears down the other’s Defense, wins this one.
      I don’t see a shoot out by any stretch.
      Again, EFF Seattle and the 12th Step Program.

      • Spitblood says:

        In my eyes, the game comes down to whether or not the Broncos can stop Lynch. Baldwin, Kearse, Miller, Tate and a rusty Harvin are an extremely average group of receivers. Denver was ranked 7th against the rush. Comparatively, the 49ers were 4th. I thought our rush defense was overrated – soft up the middle. I’d say the 49ers and Broncos’ rush defenses are comparable. In the NFC Championship game Seattle kept pounding with Lynch, and it worked. I don’t know if they’ll be able to do that against a rested Broncos team whose front seven didn’t get tested much (or pounded on) by San Diego and New England. But Seattle’s plan will clearly be to keep Manning off the field by playing ball control with Lynch. That’s obvious. Pound away and eventually Lynch will break one. Throw in some play action with Russell running around, buying time, and that’s a formula that’s worked thus far for Pete Carroll.

        I also think Manning will have a tough time figuring out the Seattle secondary. I don’t think cold weather will be as much of a factor on Manning as the media is making of it right now. I think he’ll Manning up. But that doesn’t mean that he won’t throw INTs. Seattle’s Pete Carroll, a former DB coach, has brought length to the NFL secondary – meaning Seattle plays longer, with more area responsibility for their DBs, and Manning might have a tough time adjusting to Seattle’s huge secondary assignments. His arm strength, which isn’t great anymore, will have to be at least deliberate. I think that would be the case even if the game was played in a dome.

        As much as I want to see Manning win, I think Seattle wins for one reason and one reason only….. Football is a young man’s game. Lynch verse Manning is a Seattle win. But I’ve been wrong before.

      • NJ49er says:

        All valid points Spit.
        One thing Denver has going for it is, multiple weapons at WR.
        Peyton is a dart thrower now.
        Pick and plod down the field.
        He’ll take his shots deep. Likely he’d pick on the shorter option in Earl Thomas, with one of the taller Denver WRs.
        Denver just can’t solely rely on Peyton however.

        They haven’t faced a steady diet of guys like Lynch either.
        JCharles is a darter, not a grinder like Lynch and Turbin.
        Who else runs in the AFC West? I’m not sure.

        Denvers’ OLine is pretty stout.
        DLine?
        No one there that I’m familiar with, in terms of beef, other than Knighton.

        Either way, there’s absolutely no dog in this race that I care about.
        So, it may as well go in Peyton’s favor, for all I care.

  8. snarkk says:

    It’s still idiotic to be playing this game in New Jersey in early February. Absolutely insane…

    • NJ49er says:

      Certainly I’d have enjoyed it more if our 9ers were there Snarkk, simply because we proved weather worthy in GB.
      Football is football. Players play, weather be damned.

      It just sucks for the fans, especially when the average fan isn’t attending this one at those prices.

      Serves Goodell right.
      All the high and mighty, who’s who’s, won’t be freezing their backsides off in the open air this time around.
      In a way this probably hurts the ticket gougers more than anything.
      Hope all those secondary market ticket hacks take it in the sack.

      NFL got their cash. Up front.
      It’s the Billionaire Boys Club cashing in on their big event, as always.

      This experiment could simply become one and done.

      • NJ49er says:

        Like the Olympics, it’s about bringing money to the Host City.
        Sell those TV ads. Shoot the game off those satellites globally.

        Listen to stupid commentary 24/7 for the entire week leading up to kickoff yada, yada, yada.
        The game almost gets lost in the process.

  9. “Super Bowl 49 or Bust” yeah thats a better heading Chuck! Just not in a cold weather city jeez…

    ‘Where’ is SB 49 being played i inquire too lazy to look it up? Ok win that one as a tune up to a victory in L @ Levis. I could live with that

    • NJ49er says:

      Phil I believe SB49 is going to be in AZ.

      • NJ49er says:

        Confirmed –

        Super Bowl XLIX
        Date: Feb. 1st, 2015
        University of Phoenix Stadium
        Glendale, Az.

        Super Bowl L (50th Editon)
        Date: 2016
        Levi’s Stadium
        San Francisco, Ca.

        Super Bowl LI
        Date: 2017
        Reliant Stadium
        Houston, Tx.

  10. Nipper says:

    One thing for certain …….there will never be an open air Super Bowl in a cold city again. Bank on it. New Jersey site apparently sucks even in the best of times.

  11. 12th man says:

    Reading the “debate” about Kap on Skeebs blog is funny as shit. Anyone who watches Kap play, who isn’t already biased, can see what he brings to the table. The notion that he still has to “prove” himself worthy of a contract is absurd. In 1.5 seasons as the starter he was 5 yds short of a winning TD at the SB and one slightly off target (6 inches) throw away from wining his second straight NFCCG in Seattle against the #1 defense no less. Also, he was not supposed to look for open receivers on that play, it was a pre-determined fade so give it a rest that he “missed” an open guy, he didn’t.
    As an aside, to say Kap lost that game is horseshit. The only reason the Niners O was even in that game was because of Kap, pure and simple, so any mistake he makes were amplified since no other players were carrying any of the load.
    The supposed logic to this thought process is that Kap isn’t yet a finished product. He doesn’t do all the things the greatest QB’s ever to play the game did.
    Well no he isn’t a finished product, but he does things the best QB’s ever could never dream about and he is a 1.5 year starter with a career of learning and experience ahead of him.
    Even if he didn’t improve in any single area how much is he worth with what he already brings to the table? Which QB would you rather have starting for the Niners next year?

    I see him in the 15 to 17 mil a year area with a 45 mil guarantee if they void his final year rookie contract and he gets a 6 year contract voidable after 4. Voiding the final rookie year has the same effect as paying him at 20 mil a year if they wait out the full rookie contract because he makes a buttload more money this year.
    If they choose to wait out his final year rookie contract he gets 20+ a year for 6, still 4 year voidable and 55 mil guaranteed. If they win the bowl next year then Kap will become the highest paid QB in the game.
    If he had won the SB or was in it again this year then win or lose he was in the 20’s per year but due to his youth and relative inexperience and not winning the SB or the NFCCG the Niners front office has a valid excuse to use to lower his actual per year earnings with likely an escalator in the contract that talks about winning the SB.

    I would draft a QB in the 3/4 round this year to groom as back up/starter regardless of how well Kap is playing. The Niners need a better #2 on the bench as well as trade bait in the future. They also need injury insurance for Kap since he is a runner too. These are just sensible precautions any FO should take. If they got lucky and found themselves with an even better Talent than Kap then that’s a great problem to have but the idea that they need to draft a guy to replace Kap is also absurd.

  12. unca_chuck says:

    Yeah, it’s pretty funny to get ol buwwitt all wound up. The problem with waiting is it doubles the pricetag. Well, maybe not that much, but it’d be a huge chunk of change.

    My issue with the deal is, is Harbaugh the right coach for him going forward? That is the bigger issue to me. Certainly this passing game can be made more effective. And it wouldn’t take too much tweaking. I just don;t know if Chryst/Roman/Harbaugh are the folks to do it.

    • 12th man says:

      Bullit’s bias, much like his petticoat, is showing and that is the real source of his argument. It has been pretty clear from his negative comments through the year that he is not a fan of Kap replacing Alex. Time he moved on but he can’t seem to.

      Kap is not yet a complete QB and thank god he’s not or the Niners would have to cripple the roster to keep him but it is without a doubt he is already very good and good enough to compete at the highest levels.

      Paying him sooner means less cap hit year by year but for Kap it is almost the same money as he makes 15 mil more +- this year than his rookie contract yet the Niners wil pay 4/5 mil a year less over the contract terms. Big difference. The risk is Kap doesn’t get any better and Bullit believes Kap’s current value is 12 mil. I don’t think there are many people who agree with him on that.

      If the Niners do make the deal this year at a less than elite cost and Kap does continue to progress it would be a major coup. If he doesn’t improve they will be paying at or a little over the going rate for a good not great QB.

      As for the coaching aspect. The question is did they give Kap all he was capable of handling or were they control freaks playing to their system?

      I think a bit of both. Harbs is a control freak and that goes down the chain and also sometimes when they did give Kap extra responsibilities he came up short or made a poor decision as well as some spectacular ones. Kap is a natural gunslinger in a ball control offense. Not entirely compatible and with Harbs conservative leanings it looks like they over constrain Kap a bit too much to me.

      I don’t entirely believe in Roman and this committee based O. I think a single vision with contributions is better than only contributions. It makes for a muddled and disjointed O in my opinion.

      Those that point to the win/loss record as the reason to believe in the scheme need to also look at the final games each season the Niners lost and understand that although this scheme will win more than it loses it almost certainly won’t win it all despite probably the best overall roster in football. Something needs to change a bit, not drastically but change none the less.

      Frank Gore. I love the guy to death and revere what he has done for this franchise. He is a mediocre player now playing behind a superior line in an elite run game scheme and can no longer truly get it done against the best defenses. Painful to say but true. If he was behind an average line I doubt he would be in the conversation to play next year. One of the few things he continues to do at an elite level is blitz pick up but that is not enough when production for the tough yards is lacking.

      Beast mode, much like Frank, had D players winning at the LOS and getting into the backfield. The difference between the 2 Rb was that Lynch was still able to produce and Frank wasn’t.

      Niners need a new RB.

  13. 12th man says:

    Bullit’s bias, much like his petticoat, is showing and that is the real source of his argument. It has been pretty clear from his negative comments through the year that he is not a fan of Kap replacing Alex. Time he moved on but he can’t seem to.

    Kap is not yet a complete QB and thank god he’s not or the Niners would have to cripple the roster to keep him but it is without a doubt he is already very good and good enough to compete at the highest levels.

    Paying him sooner means less cap hit year by year but for Kap it is almost the same money as he makes 15 mil more +- this year than his rookie contract yet the Niners wil pay 4/5 mil a year less over the contract terms. Big difference. The risk is Kap doesn’t get any better and Bullit believes Kap’s current value is 12 mil. I don’t think there are many people who agree with him on that.

    If the Niners do make the deal this year at a less than elite cost and Kap does continue to progress it would be a major coup. If he doesn’t improve they will be paying at or a little over the going rate for a good not great QB.

    As for the coaching aspect. The question is did they give Kap all he was capable of handling or were they control freaks playing to their system?

    I think a bit of both. Harbs is a control freak and that goes down the chain and also sometimes when they did give Kap extra responsibilities he came up short or made a poor decision as well as some spectacular ones. Kap is a natural gunslinger in a ball control offense. Not entirely compatible and with Harbs conservative leanings it looks like they over constrain Kap a bit too much to me.

    I don’t entirely believe in Roman and this committee based O. I think a single vision with contributions is better than only contributions. It makes for a muddled and disjointed O in my opinion.

    Those that point to the win/loss record as the reason to believe in the scheme need to also look at the final games each season the Niners lost and understand that although this scheme will win more than it loses it almost certainly won’t win it all despite probably the best overall roster in football. Something needs to change a bit, not drastically but change none the less.

    Frank Gore. I love the guy to death and revere what he has done for this franchise. He is a mediocre player now playing behind a superior line in an elite run game scheme and can no longer truly get it done against the best defenses. Painful to say but true. If he was behind an average line I doubt he would be in the conversation to play next year. One of the few things he continues to do at an elite level is blitz pick up but that is not enough when production for the tough yards is lacking.

    Beast mode, much like Frank, had D players winning at the LOS and getting into the backfield. The difference between the 2 Rb was that Lynch was still able to produce and Frank wasn’t.

    Niners need a new RB.

  14. 12th man says:

    Sorry for the double post. The first one didn’t appear until I posted it a second time.

  15. unca_chuck says:

    If Lattimore is heaslthy, he’ll be outstanding. Seeing AP overcome his knee problems, I have hope for Lattimore. He’ll be phased in this season. He’s basically a rook anyway, so they don;t really need to draft a RB with Hunter and LMJ behind Gore and Lattimore.

    A FB? Sure. In the 7th round,

  16. NoFear49er says:

    CK7 needs to be re-signed. CK7 had a couple of opportunities to come up big and win in big games that he failed to take advantage of. He could have increased his value to the team and his futute contract but didn’t do all he could have. In fact he made several big plays that were all bad. An o-lineman plays sixty-five snaps and loses one battle, one, that results in a strip sack returned for a TD and a loss, he’s a bum.

    I can’t think of a single passing play that’s designed without an “OR” clause. It’s totally on CK7 that he didn’t look at least one other option on the play that ended the Championship game. He could have called a TO, too.

    The Conference game ended with the same bad decisions by the same QB that ended the Super Bowl.

    Coaches and schemes are not guaranteed winners of any games. All the coaching can do is put players in positions to make plays and put teams in positions to win them. That the coaches and their schemes have done that is beyond argument. Some of it is up to the players to make the plays on the field.

    The arguments that CK& has not been great or is allowed to make rookie mistakes because he hasn’t played long enough use the same facts as the ones that argue against him signing a big long-term contract too soon.

    It gets like politics, your horse is always the good guy, no matter how far you have to bend the facts.

    I don’t have any problem at all letting CK7 play most of next year before signing him to a big contract. It’s about what’s best for the team, not one guy.

    • unca_chuck says:

      The problem I have with your screed is that Kappy was the only one doing pretty much anything for the first 3 quarters of the Seattle game. You can’t call him out for fucking up without saying he did all he could to get the lead in the first place. Besides, his playoff record is off the charts. He has more road wins that Joe and Steve combined. In 1.5 seasons.

      Kappy didn’t fall behind in those playoff games last year. That was the defense. Again, he got the team back in the game. They didn’t finish the deal in the Super Bowl, but of course there is the point where the worm turns. It’s a given that Kappy should either get the lead or come back from a huge deficit. Once he does, then it’s doubt time? Do you blame Romo for losing the Dallas/Denver game because of his last-minute pick? Of course not. Romo gets a pass for some reason. Kappy, having played 7 less seasons, should make the plays that Romo routinely blows.

      What’s best for the team is signing Kaepernick as soon as possible. Otherwise we end up like John Harbaugh and his castrated team. Or Kappy leaves. Neither option is very good.

      • NoFear49er says:

        On the road playoff record means exactly shit. It would have been better if we played those games at home in the first place.

      • unca_chuck says:

        It means shit, NoFear, because it doesn’t fit your narrative. It would have been better if the refs didn’t job the Niners in the NO game. Whatever. 12-4 and 2 playoff road wins ain’t good enough for you? You assume that these wins mean nothing, and that everything’s a given til Kappy fucks up.

        You used the same narrative on Alex Smith, but it doesn’t apply to Tony Romo or Peyton Manning? Curious is all. And very hypocritical.

      • philippinefan says:

        Screed? I didnt see one

    • 12th man says:

      There are no guarantee winners of games period, coaches, schemes or players. It takes all 3 to be a winner and it’s a matter of putting the best players in the best position to win. To me the team has arguably the best players overall of any team. Where it is lacking is in the scheme. Not drastically so, yet the redzone O for instance is below par causing the team to get 3’s not 7’s far too often.

      To have an area of the field be a glaring issue on an elite team points to a systemic problem. It can’t just be that the players can execute in the other 80 yds and forget how in the last 20.

      I have read your argument that it is the players not executing perfectly, something that rarely happens anyway, but it looks to be poor scheme more than poor execution more often than not.

      • philippinefan says:

        It was inexcusable that on the first play we get the ball in the RZ and weakly settle for 3 after NO attempts to the EZ. Inexcusable = scheme. CK ran what was called = weak shit. We forfeit 4 points that may have come in very handy on the final drive if not sooner. We did this all year and it cost us. Just like our weaknesses last year did (ST, RZ O, fall behind pass defense). Weaknesses get exposed in FB and a glaring one of ours was in our first O series to our cost.

        Our O is still not strong enough to beat the best Ds when the season is on the line. Kap cant do it all

  17. NoFear49er says:

    My screed? Do you really expect everyone to accept whatever bullshit you spew without question? Maybe that’s how it goes in your fantasyland, but I don’t live in chucksworld.

    Anyone watching the championship game knows that CK7 ended our last three possessions by turnovers to the Seahawks. That’s the game, folks. Whether you like it or whether it fits you desired narrative, it was on CK7.

    Absolutely no doubt in my mind that had Romo or Manning done the same you’d be touting it as the proof of your opinion that they are chokers. Try a little objectivity in your morning coffee.

    We’re not giving anything up by waiting to see what happens in his development through the off-season and even most of next season before setting up a deal on a new contract. OTOH if we give CK7 all the money it hurts our ability to re-sign other key parts.

    Always trying to be a front-runner but you were the one that said Smith would keep his job and now we must back up the money wagon and re-sign CK7 ASAP?

    • 12th man says:

      It has been the front office MO to extend the players they intend to keep early because they get a discount for doing it. That same scenario applies to Kap too. If they wait out this year they are looking at a free agent that they either have to franchise at a massive premium for 1 years service of have to deal with him on his terms entirely since he has all the leverage.
      As long as they believe Kap is the future they need to redo the contract this year to save substantial money.

    • philippinefan says:

      “chucksworld” Good one

  18. unca_chuck says:

    Front runner? Who laughed at my assessment that Smith would garner a 2nd and 3rd round pick? Everyone. Watch and learn, sport. I may have said Smith should have kept his job, but I was wrong. Where were you? Blowing smoke and saying nothing. Per your usual schtick.

    Boo hoo. The word ‘screed’ offends? Christ, thin-skinned aren’t we? Why do you get so unglued when people disagree with you? You love to be above the fray until someone says something even slightly off your track, then you turn into Rush Limbaugh. Whatever, pal. Alex Smith would have won the game. How about that?

    How did we get the 17 points in the first place? Kappy’s arm and legs.

    My contention is, and the world in general seems to disavow this entirely, is if we drag our feet, Kappy will leave. Franchise him? Right. Ludicrous. Wait until this season ends? Equally as daft. It guarantees he costs a shitload more than he could have, and sets the stage for franchising/splitting/cosating the Niners double what we could do now.

    My point is the Niners have to show faith that Kappy will succeed, otherwise he’ll do it somewhere else.

  19. philippinefan says:

    “Who laughed at my assessment that Smith would garner a 2nd and 3rd round pick? Everyone.” Not quite. It seemed reasonable to me at the time. AS played well after the regime change, very well, and he was only 27-28 years old. I wasnt surprised.

    But we should sign Kap sooner rather than later and I predict thats what we’ll do.

  20. NJ49er says:

    A good chunk of the argument related to Kaep is, his ability to perform from the pocket.
    Sure, he’s carried games with his legs, because he possesses that ability to do so.
    It also becomes a major concern, as it relates to potential for injury, when someone finally decides to take a cheap shot when the opportunity presents itself.

    I would side more on the progression argument in this case.
    He’s learning, he’s talented, but, he’s not a finished product.

    Looking at a kid like Foles, I’d prefer to see Kaep have more of his game.
    A good QB can do more to win these tight games, if he’s utilizing his entire compliment of weapons.
    Kaep is too often, quick to dart when he feels pressure.
    When he learns to manipulate his time in the pocket, perhaps WRs look more viable?

    We debate excessively whether it’s Harbaugh or Roman, Kaep or the WRs.
    Had Kaep looked left in Seattle, and bought some yards to the 3 WR side, you live to play another down.

    Sure, the play he made was decided pre-snap.
    Maybe that was the wrong decision?

    For me, it’s 50/50 QB and System. IMO, Roman and Harbaugh are designing things with Kaep in mind.
    Lean on the ground game, introduce new wrinkles as they become proficient at executing them.

    I’m all in for rewarding Kaep earlier rather than late.
    It’s as much on Kaep and his Agent as it is with Ballke and Marathe to get it done.

    • NJ49er says:

      We’re 3 years into a new regime, 2 years into Kaeps’ development.
      Next year is the watershed stage for kaep IMO.
      Year 3, same system, likely some weapons.

      I’d assume the Contract extension would be clearly in focus during this coming year, at least to test expectations.
      No need to panic just yet.

      I think Kaep has all the right attributes to lead this team into the future.
      No doubt Baalke and Harbaugh feel the same way.

  21. twinfan1 says:

    Alex Smith is CBSSports.com’s Comeback Player of the Year..
    Some expect him to receive a 6 year deal for about 90 millon with about 35 mill guaranteed. The 15 mill per year would be right about what Rivers makes, the guaranteed money slightly more than Big Ben.
    http://tinyurl.com/l7lypt4
    So I’d expect that Kap receives something along those lines but with more guaranteed money…unless they wait until the 2015 off season, which could cost them Flacco money- or more if they win it all.
    The Super Bowl? I want the team that beat us to win it all. Seattle 20-17. Sherman? I couldn’t care less.

    • twinfan1 says:

      By 2015 off season, I mean early 2015, after the 2014/2015 season is done.. Get us some rain, the ants are a constant battle. I’m considering the crabs option.Set fire to half of the house and get ‘em when they go to the other side.

  22. unca_chuck says:

    All I get out of that is that the Browns took Weeden before RW and Foles.

    • NJ49er says:

      That should come as no surprise to anyone huh?
      The Browns are toiling in anonimity for a reason.

      For me, a GM makes or breaks a franchise.

    • NJ49er says:

      Like Jerruh bringing in another OC to assist the OC.
      Now Callihan has to compete with Linehan to improve the Romo to Dez experience.

      Classic entertainment from the Master Puppeteer.

    • philippinefan says:

      It’s old history but reinforces the points we’re better off with Kap, our brain trust is mercenary re: QBS = if there is an upgrade out there we’ll go for it, trade for it and that we really really wanted Manning. Who I’m glad we didn’t get.

  23. NoFear49er says:

    ” I may have said Smith should have kept his job, but I was wrong. Where were you? Blowing smoke and saying nothing. Per your usual schtick. ”

    Hardly, you just don’t read very well when you’re not the topic.

    At the time 12th man, for one, and I had a few discussions on CK7 taking over. 12th man was in your camp and my position was that CK7 would and should keep his job. Sorta like you said Garrett was gone in Dallas. I’m guessing 12th man’s memory is better than yours here.

    Keep plugging away with your bullshit. Most folks apparently buy it just cuz.

    • 12th man says:

      My recollection is that up until the Ram game I was for Alex to remain the starter. Although I was no big fan of his he was playing at a decent level, very efficient, and the Niners were winning. During the Kap second half I told my buddies at our sports bar that Alex probably won’t see the field again.

      It’s common for the back up to come on in place of the starter and do well, the D has no film or tendencies to work off, but Kap was more than just a good reliever and I could see that. I wrote something along those lines at Skeebs blog at the time, heresy I know. I wrote it here too.

      After the Bears game I was all in with Kap. The “controversy” went on for weeks but for my money there was none.

    • unca_chuck says:

      So I’m to be blamed foir Jerry Jones’ idiocy? Got it. And Romo didn’t lose that game vs Denver. And he’s worth every penny of his 6 year, $108 mill extension. Even though Dallas hasn’t won a playoff game, or even BEEN in the playoffs since 2009.

  24. Spitblood says:

    This year was interesting watching Alex Smith from afar (which is much more desirable…. and palpable). Alex Smith showed me in Kansas City that basically he is who I thought he is, but a little better – so I let him off the hook. However, that “little better” still isn’t enough to win a Super Bowl with.

    Personally, I was shocked that Andy Reid ponied up two picks for Smith. In retrospect, I think the 49ers might have kept Smith and stashed him behind Kaep for a least one year. We could have afforded it last year (even though we now get a credit towards this year’s cap by being under the cap in ’13 – we wouldn’t have if Smith and his salary were on the team in ’13). No way we could afford a pricey backup in ’14. Smith would have hit the market, and Andy could have gotten his guy for less. Hindsight…

    I think the Chiefs would have been better if they had tried to lure Nick Foles away from Philly, or brought in a veteran – even a rookie to bridge the one year, Smith as a backup in SF, gap. But Andy did what ultimately cost Andy his job in Philly – get his team through the regular season and flop in the post season. Alex Smith and Andy Reid are a good fit, and I don’t mean that Alex can’t win playoff games like Andy Reid can’t. Alex is 1-3. He beat the Saints as a Niner (at home with the Saints turning the ball over 5 times).

    In comparison, Kaepernick is 4-2 in his young career, with 2 huge loses. I don’t put the Super Bowl loss on Kaep. I think Harbaugh had his team too tight, and they performed accordingly. But I do put the Seattle loss on Kaep’s head. Not that I wanted to face the Broncos without Iupati and Bowman, but Kaep did lose that game. Hopefully that makes him more hungry and better in the long run.

    Smith to KC is now water under the bridge, and I wish him well with definite skepticism regarding future playoff performances. The question now is Kaep’s contract. I think the 49ers should sign Kaep to a long term deal today, but I’d beat him up in the negotiations if he wasn’t willing to sign at a huge discount. In the NFL today elite qbs are getting huge dollar amounts that ultimately, because of a low salary cap, make the team behind the highly paid “elite qb” much weaker. Joe Flacco’s deal was a joke. Tony Romo? Dallas will never win playoff games.

    Kaep needs to realize he’s not elite, yet. He needs to realize he isn’t a pocket passer, yet. He needs to be paid like a kid that can’t go through his progressions, still gets radar lock on a receiver, still can’t manipulate defenses at the line of scrimmage pre snap. Kaep has a lot to learn, and to combat this, to make sure the 49ers stay competitive while he learns, Kaep needs to take less so the team around him is better. That case needs to made to Kaep and his agent through not only the 49ers’ front office, but also by the fans.

    Kaep and his agent could make the case that in both season Kaep’s been the starter, he’s gotten his team to the NFC Championship game and the Super Bowl – so he deserves to be paid like Peyton. However, that’s because the 49ers’ current roster is so talented. Alex Smith also got the 49ers to the NFC Championship game and I don’t think anyone is arguing that Alex Smith is elite. Take away Aldon and Crabtree and I don’t think Kaep makes the Super Bowl last year or the championship game this year.

    I don’t even pretend to know what guys like Rogers, Brees, Brady and Peyton are getting paid each year. But Kaep shouldn’t get close to their salaries with his new deal, even though Kaep’s had playoff success, beating Rogers twice and getting further than Brady and Brees in both seasons he’s been at the helm. Again, it’s the team behind him.

    Someone wrote that Kaep should get Jay Cutler numbers, and I think that’s about right. Kaep should look at the salary cap himself and create a yearly number that helps him compete for Super Bowls each year with good players around him. What if Russell Wilson wins the Super Bowl this year? I doubt he’ll be looking for Joe Flacco type numbers afterwards. I doubt Carroll would pay that. Kaep needs to consider the future Wilson and Seattle rivalry that he’ll be faced with for probably the next ten years. If Kaep wants to win, beat Seattle and truly compete with them for Super Bowls, he’ll take less so the 49ers can resign more of their own. If Kaep wants to demand more, and he gets it, the 49ers will need to go away from a run first offense and throw the ball first to set up the run to justify paying Kaep like an elite qb. You don’t pay an elite qb big money to run the football all day.

    Either way, it’ll be interesting. At the very least, and looking on the bright side, we now have a qb who clearly can compete in the playoffs. 4-2 isn’t bad. He’s beat the Packers like a drum twice, and beat the Falcons and Panthers on the road. He’s ultimately lost to potentially the last two Super Bowl winners. Even if you make the case that Kaep did that with arguably the most talented roster in the NFL, you now can’t take away Kaep’s playoff experience, and that’s huge. I don’t see the kid being nervous in the future. This is what he does. This is who he now is.

    One other thing: Two years ago I would have said Kaep’s the kind of guy to take a lot less to compete for Super Bowls – seeing that if he gets less, the team is stronger and therefore, in taking less, his legacy could be better by winning multiple Super Bowls. Now, however, I’m not so sure. Kaep’s certainly changed. He’s no longer the affable kid full of smiles at the podium. It seems like this is more of a job to Kaep now than the dream it once was. For that reason alone I could see Kaep being tougher on the 49ers at the negotiating table. I don’t care if Russell Wilson wins the Super Bowl. Kaep’s better. But the ring means everything.

    • NoFear49er says:

      Good point about over-paying for a QB in this run oriented offense. Keeping in mind that a team either has an elite QB or is looking for one, I haven’t seen enough from CK7 yet to quit looking. Too bad we didn’t keep Shaun Hill around as QB2.

    • NJ49er says:

      Spit the moral of your comment is, the team around him.
      Our Defense especially.
      I’ve seen things pretty much the same way you describe.

      Playoff experience for a 2nd year QB is invaluable.
      Playing on the bigger stage doesn’t faze him either. All good signs for a QB that continues to work at getting over the hurdles.
      Having Seattle as his nemesis only serves to challenge his mettle.

      I mentioned on Skeebs’ site that our OLine is constructed more toward the running game, therefore pass protection is an issue.
      The fact that we’ve been consistantly in the mix with Harbaugh and Roman is a good problem to have.

      Once Kaep learns to dissect a Defense mentally, we’ve got an elite QB.

      While I don’t blame him specifically for the NFCC game loss, I didn’t like the urgency to force the final throw, predicated on a pre-snap read, especially with a 4WR set and timeouts in hand.
      Hasty decision that cost him the game.

      We lost more because of Defensive lapses in the Secondary.

      That game did suggest to me that our Coaches can create schemes to challenge an exceptionally good Defense.

      We didn’t run well enough, or execute well enough in the Red Zone.
      3’s in place of 6’s ultimately remain our achilles heel.

      • NJ49er says:

        Fangio’s Defense stymied Aaron and Cam.
        Roman utilized Kaeps’ legs more in Seattle this time around too.
        It’s a talent unique to Kaep and worth paying for, to a degree.

        As for Romo, it’s a laughable situation, due to a meddling no nothing owner playing fantasy football with Cap money.
        Hope he continues to entertain me.
        Buffoons like him are priceless comedy.
        When something doesn’t work, change everything and throw more money into it.

        Effn blowhard’s ego is too big to tame.
        What’s abvious to everyone else is oblivious to him.

        Party on Jerruh.

      • philippinefan says:

        Yes it is, it’s our killer = making us not good enough on O to beat the best teams. 3,6,17 are not going to cut it against the Seattles of the NFL

    • 12th man says:

      What player in today’s game will take less money in any substantial way? Structuring their contracts to help most are willing to do, take less money nah, and it’s BS to say he should.

  25. twinfan1 says:

    It doesn’t matter what any us of think about CK and Alex- they’re both going to make a ton of money over the next few years and both teams will be happy to give to them. After it all went down, three teams made out when we get didn’t Manning.
    Watched the Sherman interview with Chris Hayes the other night. Sherman is a pretty engaging, smart guy. And the *other* interview with Erin Andrews ( who one reporter referred to as a “smiling pair of tits”), look: say what you will about Sherman and we all certainly will- it was GREAT TV.

    • 12th man says:

      I like Sherman, articulate, intelligent, an engaging personality. His “you mad bro” to Brady was funny as heck. He went too far calling out Crabs and denigrating his skills but we all make mistakes.
      The NFL is stuffy enough as it is, the game needs it’s share of larger than life personalities.

  26. unca_chuck says:

    Spitty, both Cutler and Romo are making 18 mill a year. The others are around 20-22 mill. This is the price of doing business. If I’m Kappy I’d be hard-pressed not to think I at least deserve Romo coin.

    My point is was and will be, the longer they wait, the harder (and more costly) it gets to keep him.

    Sherman? Whatever. He’s one of those guys you’d love to have on your team, but can’t stand if he ain’t. He sure loves to hear himself talk, that’s for sure. Where he ventures into TO territory is the denigration of others. That kind of shit gets retaliated upon. He keeps that up, it’ll wear thin.

    Still hope the Seahawks lose. Seattle doesn’t have it’s homefield advantage, and Manning can pretty much nullify Seattle’s pass rush by getting the ball out quick. He’s no fastballer, but we’ll see if that matters. Denver’s chances hang on the ability to stop Marshawn Lynch. Stop him and they can get after Wilson. I just don’t know how Denver’s offense does. Seattle (and the Niners for that matter) is like no teams in the AFC

  27. Joe Montana likes Manning in the SB. Yeah me too. He also said Kap should hold the ball longer, work on his pocket presence and not bolt so soon. Before the NFC title game which proved to be prescient, no?

    Pretty smart that guy.

    • NJ49er says:

      Same for me Phil.
      It’s great to see Kaep make plays with his legs when necessary.
      I’m just not real happy seeing it used at the expense of giving up on other options.

      Doesn’t matter if you’re going 4 WRs if you don’t utilize them.

      No doubt there’s work to be done on getting the Offense to be more productive in that regard.

      • According to one podcast on 49erswebzone.com recapping ‘whaaa happened’ in NFC title 3 WRs and VD went out on the fatal pass with Kap looking to Patton on the left first (believe he was open) then switching to a predetermined Crabtree unfortunately.

        http://www.49erswebzone.com/podcasts/

        (These guys are pretty good w/ a lot more info than I can absorb in earlier editions. Formations, blocking schemes, yadayada)…limiting factor being brain cells not available time

  28. NJ49er says:

    More good news (insert sarcasm here) for the NFC West
    Bounty Hunter Gregg Williams is back with the Rams.
    Cheap shotters like him are reasons I have my conerns about Kaep getting into the open field too often.

  29. NJ49er says:

    Chuck another angle to consider as we spin the topic of extending Kaep.
    If Wilson gets the Ring on Sunday, his Contract immediately puts focus on the going price as both he and Kaep are in the same lens.

    Seattle could overspend of course but, they have concerns with other extensions as we do.
    It’s always a poker game between GMs and Agents, especially with the most expensive position on the field.
    Cutler and Romo were both overpaid and have delivered nothing to either team.
    Roethlisberger’s deal would have been the perfect model Contract to compare until Flacco’s deal came about.
    Agents always want the Comp argument.

  30. Spitblood says:

    Kaep has the potential to be an all-time great, but he needs coordinators and coaches who understand the passing game. Steve Young still talks about how he’d look to run first when he was a young qb because he had more confidence in his legs. He matured into a great pocket passin’ qb with touch passes I never thought he’d be able to throw. Young’s career in SF had Walsh and Holmgren, then Seifert and Shanahan. Kaep’s got Greg Roman and Jim Schembechler. Asking those two to teach you about passing would be like nominating Stalin and Hitler for the Noble Peace prize. You might get slapped.

    Kaep’s got a lonely road ahead of him – not like Steve Young. Steve had Jerry Rice to throw to
    while Jerry was in his prime. Young also had Holmgren and Shanahan as OCs. Young made the transition we all want to see Kaep make (from runner to pocket passer) because Young had the constant supporting cast behind him and the offensive philosophy was consistent and ingrained in the organization. Young was taught to deliver passes to skilled players who took the beating instead of Young, and it was pounded into his head. Holmgren took the torch from Walsh and Shanahan wasn’t going to put his own stamp on the offense. Kaep doesn’t have this luxury. Despite Harbaugh being a past NFL qb, Harbaugh’s offensive camp is divided (more like fragmented) and it certainly doesn’t help Kaep’s development.

    Think about how confused Harbaugh’s offensive philosophy is. We have Mike Solari as our offensive line coach who’s a WCO guy, schooled under Bobb. We have college spread players in Kaep, Crabtree and LaMicheal James. We have a power run offensive line and power back left over from the days of Scot McCoughlan. We have a qb who prefers the pistol. We have an OC who was a run game coordinator in college. Kaep has a WC / Power / Spread game to nurture his growth as a qb with an OC with no real NFL experience? Seriously? That’s like having Bill Walsh in one ear, Bill Parcels in the second ear and Chip Kelly in the third ear telling Montana to beat the Cowboys. No wonder Kaep can’t deliver in the clutch. The key to great qb play is getting into a rhythm. How’s Kaep going to get into a rhythm with all that ridiculousness? And to make matters worse, Trent Baalke can’t draft receivers. AJ Jenkins drafted when Alshon Jeffrey was on the board? Vance McDonald when Keenan Allen was on the board? Thanks Trent. Thanks Jim. Thanks Greg.

    This may all sound like I’m apologizing for Kaep, but man, I see a huge talent there. Carlos Rogers recently said he hopes Aldon Smith doesn’t waste his talents. That would be tragic. Ironically, I hope Jim Harbaugh doesn’t waste Colin Kaepernick’s talents. Jim just seems too stubborn to change.

    • NJ49er says:

      Jim also sees that he’s lost 3 big games in 3 years too Spit.
      No doubt the philosophies will be adjusted going forward.

      Kaep is a fast-baller. Little to no touch involved right now.
      An OLine that isn’t mobile enough to employ a Screen game hurts to some degree as well.
      You’re right, we have a mixed bag of Nolan/Singletary/Harbaugh guys right now.
      The bulk of his passing game is outside the numbers and deep middle.
      Until he develops some touch, a short passing game is a pipe dream, which the WCO thrived on.

      100% agree on the rhythm angle too.
      We’ve seen it somewhat, in several game winning drives this season.
      Problem is, it relies more on the running attack. Once that got shut down in the more important matchups, game over.

      It still comes back to Kaep utilizing the entire Offense and the passing game.
      Romans’ concepts aren’t awful. They need to be expanded.

      Maybe it’s as simple as adding weapons, maybe it’s more on Kaep to develop the short touch throws too?

      • NJ49er says:

        A good reference point was, a throw Wilson made vs the Saints, in the Playoff game a few weeks back.
        Little high lob throw over a LB to move the sticks.
        Those types of throws are a challenge for Kaep right now.
        He’d be out the gate before attempting that throw.
        Almost shows the difference between Wilson and Kaep in their baseball terms too.
        A second baseman and a pitcher.
        Wilson has that infielders arm, Kaep the target shooter.

        Once Kaep gets further along with his progressions, feels a little more comfortable within the tighter congestion of the pocket, other options become more viable.
        He’ll get there.

        Certainly, it remains out of sync in that regard.

  31. Nipper says:

    Jim just has to worry about his wardrobe. No pleated khakis bought at Walmart. The football stuff he’s mastered despite the criticism appearing on this blog. As for Kap just get better players around him to give him better options. Draft better.

  32. 12th man says:

    Lowell Cohn says to offer Kap an extension, in the 7-8 mil range and if he doesn’t take it then let him play out the final year and let him walk.

  33. unca_chuck says:

    NJ, I don’t see how Wilson winning diminishes Kaepernick’s value at all. I think it ratchets his value UP a little bit more. After all, losing to the Super Bowl champs puts you in the realm of being the 2nd best team.

    Spitty, the team isn’t talentless but what they desperately need is a speed WR. I guess. I don’t see any kind of deep game at all that doesn’t involve VD. Patton doesn’t go deep much, and they don’t desoign too many simple go routes for Crabs or Boldin for obvipous reasons. But a guy like Baldwin you’d think would be good for a few plays a game.

    And this is what troubled me through the season. The reluctance to even try to go deep. For all the talk of Kappy’s arm strength, most of his deep balls were underthrown. Is it for lack of trying to do that? That’s my take on it. It’s hard to delevop feel for the deep passing game when you NEVER do it. The pisser about the passing game is 80% of the plays are 12 yard outs or sideline passes. No timing plays, few quick hitters and slants. Screens are non-existent. I think Kappy’s improvising is fine. But he could use a little less mustard on plays like that.

    Spitty you were howling at the beginning of the year about the lack of passing blah blah blah, and while some of that is true, balance is key if this is going to fully work. I hope Lattimore is able to hit the ground at full strength this season. If he is 100%, he’ll be outstanding. But you are right about the disjointed nature of the personnel. I hadn’t really thought about that, but I’ve said a few times I wonder if thesde coaches are going to be able to make the necesary changes going forward. Harbaugh’s control issues worry me.

  34. unca_chuck says:

    Funny. Look at Skeebs latest thread. I guess Skeebers is Bullitt.

    • NoFear49er says:

      Can’t criticize CK7? Hey, the guy ended two seasons with a loss by his bad play. He deserves some heat for it. He’s not Alex Smith after all.

      Last year at this time CK7 was “happy to just play and help the team however he could.” Now after ending another season with Super Bowl win written all over it he wants to be “fair” to the team and not take all their money. Say goodbye to humble saint and hello to QB Goldson.

    • unca_chuck says:

      Did Spitty say that? I get tired reading his novellas.

      Seriously though NoFear, should he say ‘show me the money’? He’s going to get paid. You think Cutler is worth $22 mill this year? His backup outplayed him. The point is, the faster they put this to rest, the better.

      He deserves heat, but so does the coaching staff. They are way too conservative. Especially early in games. They have had more than enough chances to take big early leads, yet they play it safe and take the FG. I can’t cvount how many times I’ve seen these guys grind out a 6-0 lead in 1.5 quarters only to give up one play and fall behind.

  35. 12th man says:

    Average franchise QB money is 16+ mil. Is Kap a franchise QB?

  36. 12th man says:

    Alex Smith got 8 mil last year, Kap got 750 k +-. Kap has played for 3 years at the 2nd round QB value contract and has been in a SB and an NFCCG and been 1 play away from winning both.

    I read here something about an O lineman being perfect on 65 snaps and whiffing on 1 making him a bum. Same analogy?

  37. 12th man says:

    It’s a team game. Can anyone really argue that Kap put the O on his back almost entirely and nearly pulled it off? He was responsible for 92% of the O production in the Squawk game and came up 6 inches short. Not sure what more can be asked of a second year starting QB playing in a limited O passing scheme.

    It is fair to criticize him but it needs context too. He has come up short in the 2 biggest games played in the last 20 years. I feel the biggest reason they were in those games is Kap. He needs better scheme and more experience.

    I would be interested to hear which other QB anyone would prefer.

  38. NoFear49er says:

    Chuck, the only way any numbers like that make sense to me is in relative terms and in light of the percentage of cap money committed. I think CK7 is worth paying what it will take to keep him but is not worth paying as if he’s in the elite class of QBs at this go round. I don’t think this FO throws its money around like some franchises so I’m not too worried about how they decide to go. If they pay him top money I’ll complain about the guys they couldn’t keep because of it.

    12th man, you start off with it’s a team game and go next to CK7 is responsible for 92% of the O? He’s the fracking QB, of course most of the offense is through him. The scheme that you say is at fault is the scheme that got them to the point of CK7’s miscues to lose the big game and the NFC championship. Nothing terribly wrong with that scheme. Could it be better? Sure it could and so could everything else.

    I really don’t get the defensiveness over rapping CK7 for his f**kups. He screwed the pooch and it cost the team two big games. Failing to make the big plays in a big game doesn’t make him a failure but having some good plays doesn’t make the screw ups any less costly either.

    • unca_chuck says:

      No one is disavowing his fuckups. You are the one that give kappy no credit for the first 3 quarters. You say it’s a team game but blame Kap. One could say crabs should have gone after the ball harder.

      • NoFear49er says:

        Bullshit. Kaepernick made a bad decision to throw it there in the first place. Sherman was all over it. Saying that his bad decision ended the game (which it did) is not the same as not giving credit for the good plays Kaepernick made. It’s just another false argument. Like the lineman comment. Everyone calls out the bad play that cost the game. With Kaepernick, apparently that rankles folks. Ridiculous.

        Further, Kaepernick is still saying he made the right decision by locking on to that matchup from pre-snap and that he would do it again, ten times out of ten times. That makes him an arrogant fool, too.

    • 12th man says:

      Team game/92% was the point NF. QB’s are not usually 92% of O production, even the Mannings of the world. The run game should gain even 20% of production on a spread O. The load was vastly on Kap to keep the Niners in it and I don’t see where credit for that is given even equal weight to being 6 inches short of winning the game. That’s all.

      Top money is 20 mil. I don’t agree with that amount for him, he has more growing to do to earn top money. I believe his value is 15 mil currently or to say it another way, franchise QB level pay. Just my 2¢

      • 12th man says:

        My point about the scheme is that they got to that point despite the scheme to some degree, relying on Kap’s athletic abilities to too great a degree to overcome it. I read somewhere that the Niner passing scheme is a glorified college scheme and I agree with that. There are not many layers to it and it is mostly a pre-determined from the sideline passing attack with the hope being that the selected receiver gets free enough to be thrown to.

        It puts most of the decision making process on the coaches shoulders and also explains why there is little sophistication to the scheme. It is probably a mixture of reasons why they are choosing to implement it this way. Harbs is a control freak being #1 on my list and also likely they are trying to keep it simple for Kap fearing his learning curve mistakes.

        I think the calculation is off a bit and it’s constraining the O too much.

        Alex Smith says the same thing and he should probably know better than anyone because if Smith is complaining about being restrained, one of the most conservative QB’s ever, then you have to know how Kap is feeling with it.

      • NoFear49er says:

        I don’t know that our passing offense is limited to the receiver Harbaugh designates on any given play. In fact, that’s so foolish I can’t believe it. No coach knows how a play will develop. Most passing plays are geared to attack one player, a safety, a linebacker, whatever. And are usually at least two pronged even as it concerns the primary receiver. If the defender does this you and the QB do that, then, for example.

        Alex Smith dumping on the coach that saved his career is less than classy and that conservative, easy, low-risk passing is what got him another job. Eff him. He’s always been quick to point fingers for his lousy performance.

        Despite the characterization of Roman here as a run game coordinator his resume includes a lot of offensive coaching and guys who have made some pretty good ball throwers and catchers have excelled under him. It’s hardly unusual to have an oline coach handle run game plays. Hell, Bill Walsh started as a D Coordinator.

        I don’t think our “scheme” includes Gore getting one yard run averages. Possibly the o-line failures is what you are seeing as a bad scheme. I think you called them elite but they haven’t played very well lately. In the bottom half or worse I’d judge for run blocking.

      • 12th man says:

        I am not a big believer in stats to reinforce an argument but the Oline grades out highly. I know you disagree but I think Frank is much less effective, his second half season was not much to write home about. By most measure the O line did it’s job, not perfectly but well. I feel he wore down badly, maybe having the second most carries of his career at his age has something to do with it?

        The O scheme lines up to try to dictate the coverage. For example, the Niners last play against Seattle they put Crabs on 1 side and everyone else on the other in order to get a 1 on 1 coverage. That was called from the sideline and it dictated Kap throws to the 1 on 1 guy. Unfortunately Sherman and the LB made spectacular plays and the Niners lost.

        There were other guys underneath that were open but that was not the playcall. It was a mixture of Kap’s bling faith in Crabs, his confidence in himself and the play call that created throw and despite it all it almost payed off. Sherman was right, choosing to test him was a mistake but it was as much or more a coaching mistake as it was Kap slightly underthrowing the ball.

        I don’t say that every passing play is set for one WR or TE but in general that is what is happening. If the play breaks down Kap gets happy feet because he has limited options and takes too long focusing on the designated target, at least that’s how it seems to me.

        I don’t think the Niners have a bad scheme, they have a solid scheme that wins far more than it loses but it needs tweaking. Settling for FG far too often, not designing plays to go beyond the 3rd down marker and hoping the receiver or Kaps legs can make it happen, things of that nature.

        Is it too much for Kap to handle? Possibly it is, but I think he has earned enough for the O scheme to trust him a bit more and I think next season that is exactly what we will see. Kap with more options and more decision making power and hopefully a more sophisticated passing scheme too.

        Niners should continue to rely on the power run game and hopefully Lattimore can add something to it as well as Frank getting half the carries he got this year to keep him fresh. I would like to see then run it a bit less out of the jumbo as well as play action from the jumbo. Play action off a successful power run game is very hard to defend.

        But then again what do I know, I’m just a mook spouting off from my armchair same as the rest of us.

      • philippinefan says:

        Naw thars only one certified mook around here = he’s the Current President of the Tom Brady Fan Club who shall not be named. You’re safe

  39. rtfirefly says:

    We could be the Rams, Cards, Vikings, Bears, Bucs, Falcons, Patties, Skins, Giants, Raiders, Texans, Jags, Titans, Ravens, Steelers, Bengals, Browns, Jets, Fins, or Bills.
    All have crap, once good now playing like crap, injury prone question marks, choke artists, or nothing at all (Browns, Vikings).
    To judge where Kap fits in the next tier, the Niners would have to be otherwise mediocre. With their D and kickers, it’s just speculation.
    Then there’s Aaron, Peyton, and the future president. Kappy’s value to me then is somewhere 4-12.
    I’m biased towards the high end of that given his enormous success in so little time. You make the call.
    (I’ll be watching The Puppy Bowl. I hope they’ll be watching for Intentional Growling.)

    • unca_chuck says:

      Christ, no fear. WhEn manning loses it’s everyone else’s fault. When romo throws a late pick to lose a game it isn’t his fault. Its what I find so funny. Depending on the name of the QB your opinions differ wildly.

    • philippinefan says:

      But its not a screed, lol. I dont follow all the opinions around here that closely so cant really comment on inconsistencies

  40. NoFear49er says:

    Hey, we were already good enough to go to the NFC conference game. The whole point of replacing Alex with Colin was to be better and good enough to finish those games at the QB spot.

    The difference is I don’t call every loss by the Niners a Kaepernick choking as usual. or in big games, or in cold weather or any of the other ridiculous generalizations folks use to slam those two guys. They’ve both earned their spots and have carried their teams to wins in spite of poor supporting casts. Kaepernick has a ways to go yet.

    As I’ve said before, I was touting Kaepernick to you when you were still in the bag for Smith. Now that you’ve come to my point of view you’re going to hammer on me for criticizing him? He made a bad play where he could have won the game. If that was Romo or Manning you would have called them chokers. Have you called Kaepernick a choker? Always the popularist. Do you find that funny, too?

    • unca_chuck says:

      Shit, you sound like Bullit. You want the glory? Yay NoFear. I said it was a ballsy move based on the fact players usually didn’t lose their job due to injury. I didn’t agree with it, but it was what it was. Did it work out?

      To say Kappy has to get further than Smith is the argument you railed on Twin for. There’s no way to know who would have done what since the die was cast. If they replaced Kappy with Smith in the 4th quarter would that have worked?

      • NoFear49er says:

        Chuck, you’re such a phony blowhard. Nobody cares about “the glory” except you. That’s your deal. You said plenty about Smith keeping his job. You and your baseball buddies were all over Harbaugh and what an asshole and idiot he would be to replace Smith. Now you won’t let anyone say anything about Harbaugh or Kaepernick? You’d do better to just STFU instead of trying to twist and spin everything to make it look like you were almost right in those times when you’re just dead wrong. Besides hopping on and off so many bandwagons so fast you’re always in danger of falling under the wheels.

  41. NoFear49er says:

    12th man, I think you may be filling in a lot of gaps between what we see on the field and what we know about what was called and who called it with Kaepernick held to as little responsibility as possible. You’re certainly entitled to your opinion, too.

    Kaepernick couldn’t know that Sherman wouldn’t drop into zone coverage and the safety cover the deep corner fade or even blitz before the snap. If the pre-snap reads dictate the throw no matter what happens this offense and all its coaches belong coaching high school ball or maybe less. I just don’t buy it. Of course they try to get favorable matchups but the defense gets a vote, too. If they don’t get the matchup they want then what? Kaep has to call a timeout and check with Harbaugh?

    It’s just as possible that the defense knew CK7 would be suckered by the man-up on Crabs and set him up for that INT. Knowing Carroll’s belief in his own defensive smarts I think that’s quite likely.

    At the same time Kaepernick calls an audible at the LOS and fans are beside themselves thinking Kaepernick just gave the finger to the coaches and ran the play his way. I don’t know where some of this stuff comes from.

    As for the o-line, take a look at Football Outsiders offensive lines analyses. Worse than I thought.

    • 12th man says:

      You may well be right NF, it’s just how it looks to me.

    • 12th man says:

      I did look at FO, you’re right it’s not good.

      • philippinefan says:

        How so?

      • 12th man says:

        Hey Phil, well this is how I see it.

        Each position on the line gets ranked for pass pro and run blocking. Very surprisingly at least to me is how low the line graded out compared to their position on the other 31 teams. Injury played a part in that with Iupati but a telling stat is how often the running play was stuffed.
        It means that the opposing D beat the O line into the backfield and got to the RB.

        One of the reasons is that the formation invites 8 and 9 guys into the box which leaves the O line outnumbered quite often. Also it is up to the RB to make a play too, think Lynch in Seattle with our D lineman getting to him but still making positive yards.

        But NF has a valid point, if the opposing D gets into the backfield significantly then the run game isn’t going far.

  42. Nipper says:

    Yeah I’m fond of the Puppy Bowl. Those puppies put on a good show.

  43. philippinefan says:

    How much should CK be paid per year? How long a deal? What other continencies are there? Guaranteed money? Let’s do a wild ass guess-a-thon on “How much per year / how long a deal?”

    Phil sez: 16M/yr for 6 years 50M guaranteed.

    • 12th man says:

      I have no idea what the BS part of the contract would look like because they make it up to look like it is a block buster contract for publicity purposes.
      The real part of it I would guess 4/16 with performance escalators (winning SB?) built in all guaranteed.

  44. unca_chuck says:

    4/64 sounds about right. I’m not exactly clear on how they defer or spread out the cap hit, but I’d see like $35 mill guaranteed. I guess the length of the contract can lessen the year-to-year hit.

    Maybe NoFear has the contractual info more nailed down. I don’t.

    NoFear, does your own narrative of how you think I act just run through your brain? I’ve criticized Harbaugh among all the lame-ass play calls in the red zone. I said the deal to bench Alex had a huge risk to blow up in his and the team’s face. I didn’t think it was a good idea. So, that means what? Only you have the right to discuss it. Who am I stopping from talking about it? What part of ‘I think they can design a better passing game’ is heresy? Fox news has nothing on you, skippy. Are you this paranoid all the time?

    • 12th man says:

      My guess on the contract is they front load it somewhat, maybe a signing bonus type situation to lessen the year by year cap hit but that the actual money is equivalent to 16/4

      If Baalke can pull off less than that he will have earned his keep. He did manage 2 #2 for Alex Smith, way above what I figured he could get so maybe he is a snake charmer.
      Just my 2¢

      • 12th man says:

        Incidentally, if only 35 mil is guaranteed over 4 then it is the same as Alex Smith was making in his final year with the Niners and his first year with the Chiefs. I would expect him to pull in 12 mil +- salary after his signing bonus.

        Does that make 4¢ now?

      • philippinefan says:

        Yes 4 centabos however we are playing with Chucks house money and the budget is large. Carry on

  45. unca_chuck says:

    Smith made $8 mill his last yesar here, and his 1st in KC. This is double that. Smith had no guarantee past the 1st year as well. Which was why we were able to trade him.

    • 12th man says:

      Maybe I’m not following you. Smith made 8 + 1 roster bonus his last year and 8 at KC so 8.5 aggregate. 8.5 x 4 years is 34 mil, almost the 35 mil guaranteed you mentioned or did I miss your point?

    • 12th man says:

      Incidentally and not directly related but for perspective, Larry Fitzgerald will pick up 13 mil guaranteed this season as a WR.

    • unca_chuck says:

      I’m saying he gets a 4 year 64 mill extension (16 mill a year), 35 mill of which is guaranteed money.

  46. 12th man says:

    Kilgore arrested.
    http://blog.sfgate.com/49ers/2014/01/31/report-niners-ol-kilgore-arrested-for-public-intoxication/

    I’m not condoning this but if he and his friend are walking home drunk but otherwise behaving themselves should they be arrested for it? How about give them a ride home or call a cab for them, get them to call a friend? Why arrest them as criminals?

    I dunno but sometimes I shake my head.

    As for Kilgore, getting arrested and some bad publicity when he is in competition with Looney and who knows who else for a starting job is dumb.

    • NoFear49er says:

      If the report is accurate it seems like a tough luck deal. But maybe the LEO had a good reason to want them off the streets.

      • 12th man says:

        Could be but is arrest the only way or even the appropriate way to achieve it?

        Back in the old days walking home was preferred to driving home if you had a few too many. Arrest for walking home isn’t something I remember happening as long as you were peaceable. Loud singing and not stopping when told to might get you a night in the clink but again not usually an arrest, just toss you in a cell and kick your hung over ass out in the morning.

        Obviously I don’t have all the facts but if the report is correct I don’t agree with arrest for it.

  47. NoFear49er says:

    Simplistically, the guaranteed money such as the signing bonus and all bonuses treated like signing bonus can be spread over the length of the contract for cap accounting purposes, regardless of when it’s paid to the player. Some bonuses could be tied to the roster so not payable if cut but generally if it’s a six year deal 30 million guaranteed can hit the cap at 5 million per year. If the guy gets cut early all the money that didn’t hit the cap yet hits it next year.

    Besides the amortized cap hit the player’s salary and workout/roster bonus could add to the yearly total hit. Many times the contract is written with higher salaries in the later years (increased at max of 30% per year IIRC) knowing that the contract won’t live that long.

    For example a yearly salary of 5M, 5M, 6M, 8M, 10.5M, 13.7M, 18M. Written in but knowing those last years aren’t going to happen without restructure. Guaranteed money is the only thing that matters. Those last years give the team more years to spread the cap hit and more dollars in the contract to make the player and agent happier.

    • 12th man says:

      That’s my basic understanding too, hence not predicting the BS portion of the contract.
      Do you have a prediction what the real part of his contract may be?

      • NoFear49er says:

        I read something this AM about Kaepernick rightfully expecting to best the contract Alex gets in KC if he gets one. I think that makes the most sense provided Alex is not paid some ridiculous sum.

        If it was me I’d make the deal fair but make more earnable by performance and staying healthy. I don’t really have a good sense of what fair is at this point.

  48. unca_chuck says:

    Well, that’s the problem. With Jerry Jerkoff giving Romo a zillion dollars, and Jay Cultet getting his astronomical salary, what is fair? The franchise value for QBs will be close to 20 mill. I say 16 because if falls in the range of upper echelon, but isn’t too too crazy. Then again, it isn’t my money.

    Thanlks for the salary cap post, NoFear.

    New thread is up, BTW.

  49. 12th man says:

    Yeah I read that piece, it was from an ex agent who writes for NFP but it was just his opinion, not something Kap has asked for or was involved in.
    I do see that POV as a floor for negotiations meaning certainly not less than Smith would get but beyond that I don’t see how Smiths contract affects Kap. Different styles of play and different ability ceilings.
    That was the same writer who brought up not signing Aldon to an extension this year even though it’s his last but to add the optional 5th year to the existing contract until Aldon proves himself from a behavioural standpoint. I agree with that entirely.

    • NoFear49er says:

      Sounds right. The only way it affects CK7’s deal is it’s a marker in the sea of relativity of ridiculously huge football QB contracts that the agent can use. I remember that self-described “team guy” Emmitt Smith holding out while his team was losing games because he had to have more money than Thurman Thomas or he wasn’t coming back.

      Aldon, yeah, you’ve got to be careful with a guy like that. You don’t know if he needs a pat on the back or a kick in the ass, so to speak.

      • 12th man says:

        Shades of Crabtree when he came out refusing to take the slot money and demanding higher pick money or holding out. Fat lot of good that did him.

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