Baby, It’s Cold Outside . . .

The closer we get to game time, the lower the tmperature will BE at game time, according to the prognosticators. As of now, the high is projected to be 7º, with a low of -20º as the night goes on. Which is why there are still over 6,000 tickets available for the game. Hmmm. Catch a flight to Green Bay? Maybe not. One would think this would be an advantage to the Packers, but to me this doesn’t really matter. Both sides play in the weather, and both teams are affected by it. Besides, our young QB played all his games in Reno, and the weather for the games he played in college was in places like Boise, Oregon, and Washington. Pretty much wintry conditions. And, he practiced outdoors in Reno, so the day-to-day aspect of his game was in weather.

In other words, the weather will play a factor, but I think it favors the Niners more than the Packers. The Niners have a stronger run game and can stop the run better than Green Bay, so we should be able to force GB into mistakes through the air by getting pressure on Aaron Rodgers. Of course forcing GB to pass might be considered playing to their strength, but letting them grind out the game wouldn’t be wise either. Stuff their run and take away the short passes. Clog up the underneath and take your chances on the deep passes in the crap weather.

Haven’t heard any more news on Carlos Rogers, but I’d think nursing a bad hammy in -10º weather wouldn’t seem to be a good idea. He’s likely not playing.

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About unca_chuck

Lifelong SF 49ers and SF Giants fan
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53 Responses to Baby, It’s Cold Outside . . .

  1. Irish Kevin says:

    In the two minutes that I was writing this you put up a new thread!! Ha ha happy new year Chuck

    A question for all, does Roman call the same type of game he called in September or does he go run heavy this time. We have all seen how the cold affects both receivers and RBs. Some backs are fumble prone. Receivers have trouble catching the ball. I say go with the September type offense. The Packers could not stop them then, go with what worked until they get stopped.

  2. Irish Kevin says:

    Happy New Year boys, let’s go Niners!!

  3. Irish Kevin says:

    Chicago airport was closed this morning.

  4. Irish Kevin says:

    At home watching The Herd, Colin calls the Niners the best team in the NFL, 1. Niners, 1A. Seattle, 3. Denver. He also says Niners by 7, maybe by 10 over GB.

    • phil fan says:

      I have Niners by 7 too. Ten wouldnt surprise me.

      Never heard a player make a call like that before.

  5. 12th man says:

    6 HC fired so far. All kinds of OC/DC names being thrown around and 2 coaches hired. Has anyone seen the name Roman mentioned? How about Fangio? Other teams in the playoffs have co-ordinators waiting to interview but not our guys?

    Could it be in the case for Roman that league GM/owners understand that the power run game, unless they have the players to run it, is ostensibly defunct for now? Few teams have a power run game and fewer teams have the players to run it.

    Also it is reported that Roman only devises run game plays so in fact is an incomplete OC. In reality Harbaugh is the defacto OC.

    Fangio is a bit of a head scratcher unless you factor in the stats on Fangio’s D declines each year although this year I think he has broken that particular curse.

    I think Fangio has done well with the players and am a bit surprised he hasn’t been invited to interview .

    Looking forward to Sunday it looks like a frigid day in Green Bay. I will take the Niners 21-17.

    • phil fan says:

      Ok 12 got ya. Officially registered lol.

      I dont think Fangio wants HC position, my guess. Roman prolly gets one after season.

  6. unca_chuck says:

    Irish, Some of that will be dictated by how GB’s defense comes out. If they pack the box (which I totally expect), I’d think we will exploit that and take to the air. What is good is Boldin is VERY tough and he’s got great hands. I don’t see the weahter affecting him too much. Crabs and VD need to make sure they keep both hands on the ball at all times. Forget the YAC, just catch and secure the ball.

  7. unca_chuck says:

    Roman was talked about for the Penn State vacancy. Also the USC vacancy. And the Detroit Lions HC spot. He’s on a lot of short lists. Can’t say I’d hate to see him go, but Harbaugh would likely hire David Shaw. . . nooooooooooooooooooooo!

    • 12th man says:

      Yeah I saw his name for a couple of college positions but nobody interviewed him or even asked to as far as I know, but didn’t see him mentioned for the Lions or anyone else’s NFL short list.

      I would be surprised to see him considered for a HC position frankly. I think he’s tied at the hip to Harbaugh at least for another year.

  8. rtfirefly says:

    In 1967, Lambeau Field had an elaborate underground field-heating system. In the Ice Bowl, the famous NFL Championship Game hosting the Dallas Cowboys, a rematch of the 1966 Championship Game in Dallas, Bart Starr’s 1 yard TD quarterback sneak with time expiring decided the title.

    Green Bay had a punishing ball control run offense behind 4 future HOF linemen, to go with a punishing, physical defense highlighted by future HOF middle linebacker Ray Nitschke.

    Dallas had a high flying offense led by All-Pro QB “Dandy” Don Meredith and former Olympic champion, multiple sprinting world record holder and future Hall of Fame wide receiver Bob Hayes (oddly, those two games were career lowlights for Hayes. In the Ice Bowl, he gave away plays by keeping his hands inside his jersey pockets on runs to keep them warm in the frigid air.)

    But a funny thing happened on the way to The Forum. In an event that must have made Al Davis jealous, the Packers organization “forgot” to turn on the heating system in the days leading up to the event. Thus, The Ice Bowl on the Frozen Tundra.

    (My guess is, with Aaron Rodgers, the field will be plenty warm Sunday.)

  9. rtfirefly says:

    0° high, -18° low, 20% chance of snow forecast the latest from weather dot com. But I’ll wager we still get camera shots of drunken, shirtless cheeseheads. This IS Wisconsin we’re talking about.

    • unca_chuck says:

      Too cold to snow. Won’t see any of that.

      • rtfirefly says:

        Here in New Mexico we’d get sleet (driving sleet in a decent wind), which bypasses the “snow” phase on its way to piling up ice. Six of one…

      • 12th man says:

        I’d rather be on a beach somewhere either way. GB not sold out yet for a playoff game tells me all I need to know about the weather on Sunday :)

      • unca_chuck says:

        Yikes. Didn’t mind snow living in the mountains. Freezing rain SUCKS. Used to run a snow plow company and we shoveled decks and roofs and such. Snow was easy to push around. A city roof full of ice? Major major pain. October in the high country sucked.

  10. Irish Kevin says:

    Old weather just plain sucks IMO, give me sunshine and 80+ degrees any day!! Yeah I know, I know footballs a winter sport. But that is because no one wants to be in 80 degree weather with all that equipment on. I remember when the Niners would have spring training in Rocklin, most summers here in the central valley were in the 90 degree range. Brutal training weather!!

  11. 12th man says:

    Interesting piece on the jumbo short yardage plays the Niners run:
    http://www.ninersnation.com/2014/1/2/5263712/49ers-short-yardage-playcalling-vs-packers

  12. Irish Kevin says:

    Nice article 12th, the guy nailed it. Sad to see that the Niners run on short yardage 69+% of the time, when the league average is 55+% of the time. But it does justify all my bitching and moaning about the run up the middle. Sometimes only 1 damn WR on the field??? Stupidity in my book. And someone made the comment that maybe they are saving plays for the playoffs, well if they had lost to NO and the Cards, those plays would have ended up being used next year…maybe

  13. dirtnrocksnomo says:

    Agree with you that weather won’t be the deciding factor but it doesn’t get that cold in Reno.

  14. rtfirefly says:

    -3/-19 Wind NW at 14mph
    Wind chill -15° at kickoff, then dropping at sundown

    Think I’ll jack up the heat while I watch, even though it’s shirtsleeve weather here. Maybe stock up on hot chocolate…

  15. rtfirefly says:

    Correction, wind chill -23°.

  16. rtfirefly says:

    WP busy again, it’s wind chill -24°.

  17. rtfirefly says:

    Ah, it doesn’t like the vid I tried to post.

  18. rtfirefly says:

    See about this one…

  19. phil fan says:

    Latest from our peerless pigskin prognosticators:

    Chuck sez: 31-20 Niners. The good news is we seem to match up well with Green Bay with our base defense. The Niners only got 2 sacks in week 1 but Rodgers was harassed all game, and completed 56% of his passes. Kappy on the other had went for 70%. I think the Niners can wear down Green Bay’s defense, and keep Rodgers from going too crazy.

    NJ49er says: 27-17 9ers. I’m concerned about our Secondary in the cold mostly. Rodgers can wing it and cold weather favors them. Have to keep Rodgers from rolling. Sacks would be nice but, we can’t allow him to buy time. Hurries could be better than sacks in this kind of weather. Talking below zero wind chill factor for this one.
    Gotta keep their O off the field. Good place for the Power Run game.

    12th man: 21-17 Niners. Looking forward to Sunday it looks like a frigid day in Green Bay. I will take the Niners 21-17.

    Irish Kevin says: At home watching The Herd, Colin calls the Niners the best team in the NFL, 1. Niners, 1A. Seattle, 3. Denver. He also says Niners by 7, maybe by 10 over GB.

    phil fan says: I have Niners by 7 too. Ten wouldn’t surprise me. Never heard a player make a call like that before.

    phil fan says: 34-27 Niners. We’re going to score on these guys and Rodgers and co. will put up 3 TDs. It wont be enough. Our run game the difference as Kap will match Rodgers. “General” Patton could be the difference with LMJ on punts

    • phil fan says:

      Actually from Kevin Lynch

      • 12th man says:

        Lynch back pedaling for all he’s worth. Sounds like the Niners didn’t take too kindly to his swipe at Roman.

      • phil fan says:

        Yeah true. When I first read the article I thought it was by Maiocco and was surprised there was a ‘clarification’ but then saw it was by “not so insider” Lynch

  20. rtfirefly says:

    Ice 26 Snow 10
    Onto Carolina and heatstroke!

  21. unca_chuck says:

    Yeah, the article re the jumbo package is disheartening to say the least. It did seem to get worse as the season wore on. Makes no sense to me why they seem to be sabotaging themselves.

  22. snarkk says:

    Shaw running that 4th down dive play in Q4 Rose Bowl on the last series with virtually a Berlin Wall of green in front of him was not just stupid, it was idiotic, especially given the lack of run success for the “Furd in the second half. I wouldn’t want Shaw coaching my pro team, no friggin’ way…

  23. NoFear49er says:

    As regards the linked article by David Neumann; everybody’s got a gripe. His is not enough sneaks on short yardage I guess.

    As I’ve mentioned, the three plays from last Sunday, 3-1, 4-1 and 3-1, were all different plays from similar formations and personnel. The one pictured at the bottom of the article looks like the 3rd and 1 play early in the 2nd quarter. No motion on that play, btw.

    Added Kilgore and Snyder on the LOS and Tukuafu at FB. Typical power run to the strong side from the I formation. We run this play well, usually. Looking at the pre-snap shot in the article there is no way those four down lineman are going to stop this play. Right? But they pushed us completely off the LOS by playing with better leverage and more energy and stuffed the play. That’s not a bad play call, it’s terrible execution.

    This play followed a 2nd and two that Gore only advanced the ball a single yard and lucky to get that. Slacking off like that isn’t going to win many playoff games. Just because we’re good at it doesn’t mean it’s automatic. Players still have to execute the play and win their individual battles.

    The 4th and one motioned Kilgore to the weak side and sent the FB Dixon behind Iupati. No push, no gain.

    The last 3rd and one sent Kilgore to block the end man on the weak side and he got pushed back into the play and the ball carrier, Dixon, was stuffed going around the weak side end, by sloppy execution again.

    So Roman gets roasted because all these run blockers fail to block. If Roman calls a play that gets Boldin all alone in the end zone and he drops a good pass, is that a bad play call, too?

    A lot of plays come off these runs and run formations. The TD at the end of the first quarter, for example, where VD leaked out unnoticed, and the back-to-back end around big gainers in the first quarter had a similar look to the them, not to mention selling the play actions. But we do seem to have a disturbing tendency to play down to our perception of the competition too often.

    • unca_chuck says:

      Well, the gist of the article remains. Their 3rd down conversion rate is suffering. To me it appears to be because our tendency is to run up the middle in the jumbo package. Not every time, but enough to be stopped pretty consistently. Poorly executed? You can say that about every failed play, NoFear. No one tries to throw a pick or lose yards. When the defense knows what’s coming, they can defend it easily. Like they showed last week, and the week before, etc.

      Very similar to Singletary saying ‘stop Gore’ to the other team before every game.

    • 12th man says:

      NF, are you saying that the dismal short yardage gains, as evidenced by the percentages in the article, are caused simply by poor execution and that the jumbo play design and running it almost every short yardage situation is otherwise good?

      It might make sense to blame the execution on some plays but it seems to me to be more a function of play design. There is only one possible answer to a jumbo formation and that is to stack the box. Limits the possibilities if after showing Jumbo you then go ahead and run that play almost every time.

      The justification for many failures to convert 3rd down can’t be that it resulted in 1 touchdown on play action. Drives are stalled, D is back on the field and the O either didn’t score or maybe got a FG. Those outcomes are all less than ideal.

      There is a place for jumbo, but the Niners are not fooling anybody when they line it up because they run it just as they are showing it. I counted 10 D players in the box in one of those screen shots and they still ran the play.

      • NoFear49er says:

        There’s a difference between personnel package, formation and play called. Everybody wants to call them all ‘the jumbo play’ and disregard the fact that we actually run different plays from that formation, gain benefits beyond the yards gained and that our o-line of first rounders / pro-bowlers gets pushed off the ball like college third teamers why do I give a damn?

  24. Nipper says:

    BLEEP GREEN BAY. Some of their lousy seats are slow in selling. This game is a disservice to the Niners with a better record. I hope they pound the cheeseheads into submission. BLEEP!

  25. Flavor says:

    I’m gonna say 26-24 Niners.

  26. Irish Kevin says:

    Hmmm…I am going to go against the grain here and say 20-13, go Niners

  27. unca_chuck says:

    Yeah, my prediction might be a little high. But I still think we can score on their defense.

    Carlos Rogers’ hammy isn’t as bad as originally thought so he’s going to give it a go.

    Not very comforting, but we don’t have many options. I expect Eric Reid to be busy.

    And I’m real interested to see how KC does vs. Indy.

  28. Irish Kevin says:

    Yeah Chuck, other than the Niner game that is the Game to watch. Some guy on ESPN says that a lot of people think KC was playing vanilla ball on Indy in the last game. But most sports analyst are split on this game. It should be fun to watch. Go Alex!! I would love to see a Niner/KC SB. Alex beats the Niners on a last second TD pass, a pass, Dennis would have a coronary.

    • unca_chuck says:

      Yeah, KC played most of their 2nd stringers that game, Smith and Charles (among plenty of others) didn’t see the field. Pittsburgh was pissed, but Andy Reid was looking out for his guys.

  29. Irish Kevin says:

    Just kidding!! No way Alex beats the Niners!! Ha ha 🏈🏈🏈🏈

  30. unca_chuck says:

    The AFC is hard to figure. Like last year, any one of those teams can get hot and go to the Bowl.

    If the NFC isn’t the Niners Carolina or Seattle, I’ll be completely surprised.

  31. unca_chuck says:

    I’m curiousa to see how SD does. They snuck in, but Rivers is rolling in a big way.

  32. rtfirefly says:

    Colts 31 Alex 17
    Eagles 20 Saints 17 (Pack for Seattle!)
    Niners 26 Packers 14 Frostbite 5 (OK, I added 4 points to the losers – sue me)
    Ginger 27 Chargers 13 (sorry, the refs from last weekend have chosen asylum – no miracle rigged finishes this week)

    Divisional round:
    Colts@Broncos
    Bengals@Patriots
    Eagles@Panthers
    Niners@Seagulls, those big white noisy birds who terrorize Alviso

    Champ round:
    Patriots@Broncos
    Niners@Panthers

    SB: Niners over Broncos 52-20 (that’s 26-10 x2 – Peyton, you know)

    You heard it here first. Remember that it was I, and only I after that brutal robbery in the Superdome, who wrote that all the Niners had to do was win 10 in a row. 6 down, 4 to go.

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